Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has resumed coverage of Alkane Resources under analyst David Coates. Buy rating and target price of $1.45.

The company completed the merger with Canadian producer Mandalay Resources in early August, transforming it into a diversified, multi-mine gold producer with exposure to antimony, a critical mineral.

FY26 production guidance of 155-170koz was broadly in line with the broker's previous estimate, but the ramp-up of gold production was slower than expected, along with lower antimony production. This is, however, offset by higher gold price forecasts.

Buy. Target price $1.45.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.435
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Citi remains upbeat around a potential near-term step change in Minerals revenue for ALS Ltd. Sample volumes are expected to show a solid uptick in 1H FY26, with momentum carrying into H2, further supported by improving pricing.

Although junior miners remain in hibernation, they have actively raised funds over the past five months to August, highlights the broker. A glass-half-full perspective suggests to the analysts this could signal an impending surge in exploration activity.

Industry feedback indicates a rise in enquiries from juniors, though this has yet to translate into increased exploration activity, cautions Citi.

Buy. Target unchanged at $19.45.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $19.55 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.64, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

Post Citi's visit to Baby Bunting's first small-format pilot store, known as Baby Bunting Junior, the analyst believes the new format could be a major growth driver for the company if successful.

An estimated 20 to 40 new-format stores could generate an incremental $4m to $8m in annual earnings (EBITDA), or between 6% to 12% of FY25 earnings (EBITDA).

The new store is well positioned for foot traffic and offers an "easy-to-navigate" layout with a smaller product range, Citi explained.

October 14's AGM is likely to offer positive comments on the small-scale stores, with upside to sales from influencer marketing around the opening.

Buy rating and $3.04 target retained.

Target price is $3.04 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.03
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CEN as Outperform (1) -

Contact Energy’s August operating statistics showed consolidated EBITDAF (EBITDA including fair value adjustments) was NZ$89m, after incorporating MNW contribution. Macquarie notes this was ahead of guidance once hydrology is normalised.

The broker highlights retail netback, customer growth and MNW contribution all exceeded forecasts. 

NZ electricity demand is rising, up 5.6% y/y, with structural growth from electrification and data centres, the broker notes, and future potential from government backing of supercritical geothermal.

Outperform. Target unchanged at NZ$11.35.

Current Price is $8.28. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNI as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS notes Centuria Capital has higher gearing and a more constrained capital position relative to peers. Moreover, the shares re-rated quickly post-FY25 result, limiting upside.

While lower rates are expected to support the business model, the broker reckons retail investor demand for new fund products could lag peers.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target unchanged at $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If CNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COF as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS expects Centuria Office REIT's priority to be on gearing reduction, which will see limited distribution growth. Cash flow is expected to be under pressure from FY25-26 downtime and leasing headwinds.

The broker believes the payout ratio is too high with DPS higher than AFFO, which will require distribution growth to be lower than earnings over time.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target unchanged at $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: minus $0.085 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare is assessed by Citi as having three potential catalysts for share price upside: stronger debt issuance, a recovery in corporate actions, and a sizable acquisition.

The broker observes a modest recovery in US mortgage-and asset-backed issuance, with potential for more momentum if interest rates fall. It's noted corporate actions are showing tentative improvement, though IPO and M&A volumes remain subdued.

The analysts see up to -US$3bn in acquisition capacity, with Corporate Trust the priority, though suitable opportunities remain scarce. 

Citi retains a Neutral rating and $40.40 target price.

Target price is $40.40 Current Price is $37.67 Difference: $2.73
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.88, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

As part of its outsourcing R&D restructuring strategy, CSL announced an agreement to fund privately owned Dutch biotech VarmX's development of its flagship VMX-C001 product, described by Ord Minnett as a modified human Factor X protein to prevent bleeding in patients.

Factor Xa direct anticoagulants are a type of blood thinner and referred to as FXa-DOACs.

CSL will pay -US$117m up front for the exclusive option to acquire VarmX once the phase 3 data is available, and a further -US$388m up to the launch of VMX-C001, which received FDA fast track designation on September 3, the analyst states.

An estimated 30m patients in the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to receive FXa-DOACs by 2030, with upside for bypass agents such as VMX-C001, which will grow as patients switch to FXa-DOACs from indirect-action blood thinners like warfarin.

Ord Minnett sees value at current levels and maintains a Hold rating, but remains concerned over revenue growth and the recovery in Behring margins. Target remains at $258.

Target price is $258.00 Current Price is $201.91 Difference: $56.09
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $282.68, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Morgans upgraded Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure to Accumulate from Hold following recent share price weakness.

The fall was triggered by the full exit of IPO foundation shareholder Brookfield with the sale of the remaining 26% stake at $4.05/sh. The broker doesn't see the exit as impacting the business fundamentals.

The stock will enter the S&P/ASX200 index from September 22, the broker reminds.

Next known catalyst is the outcome of the capital allocation review expected in February 2026, along with FY25 results.

No change to forecasts. Target unchanged at $4.73.

Target price is $4.73 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.45
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DUG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target price on Dug Technology to $2.89 from $2.32 while retaining a Buy rating, post receiving the first order from Petronas valued at US$14.9m, with -US$4.6m payable to Cegal.

Management anticipates the value to come in at a minimum of US$14.2m in each of years two and three, with a total contract value of circa US$43.3m.

The analyst highlights Dug ordering -US$16m in compute to meet the Petronas contract as well as offering latent capacity for additional workloads.

Ord Minnett notes the deal is the biggest to date and strengthens the substance of the HPCaaS and SaaS offerings.

Target price is $2.89 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.36
If DUG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EQR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes APT prices (the benchmark reference price for tungsten) are up 50% (over US$500/mtu) on China export restrictions, and EQ Resources remains the largest non-Chinese producer with over 240,000mtu capacity.

The company's production from Barruecopardo was 28,203mtu in the June quarter, down from record 33,249mtu due to pit sequencing, but Phase 6 access and a third ore sorter are expected to lift output.

The Mt Carbine mine underperformed for the third straight quarter.

Target cut to 6c from 10c following equity dilution and expectations of a slower return to the previous production level at Mt Carbine.

Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.03
If EQR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS highlights HomeCo Daily Needs REIT trades at a discount to NTA despite an above-sector yield and strong forecasts for FY26-29 earnings growth.

The broker sees potential for re-rating as developments and revaluations drive NTA growth.

A defensive tenant mix (60%) underpins resilience, in the broker's view, while 40% exposure to large format retail provides upside from improving discretionary macro-environment.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $1.53 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.125
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Buy (1) -

The UBS quarterly consumer survey of around 1,000 Australian adults, conducted between August 12 and August 27, delivered the strongest readings since the series began in late 2019.

Consumer sentiment has become increasingly energised, highlights the broker, aligning with stronger domestic economic data over the past six weeks.

It's noted these results are consistent with broadly favourable trading updates and outlooks provided by listed companies during the August reporting season.

UBS now suggests domestic earning Small Caps (and some pockets of value) can continue to claw their way back against the larger companies. 

The strong survey responses on spending intentions for home improvement and Furniture/household appliances support the recent inclusion of Harvey Norman in the broker's preferred list of stocks.

The Buy rating and $7.75 target are maintained for Harvey Norman.

UBS still expect the RBA in September to hold the cash rate, and then in November cut by -25bps, to a terminal trough of 3.35%.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.37 Difference: $0.38
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie analysed insurer Youi's FY25 result for implications for Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group.

Youi's 2H25 gross written premium (GWP) growth of 24.2% was significantly higher than the two insurers, driven by NSW CTP share gains and direct channel momentum.

Net earned premium growth outpaced GWP due to quota share exits and lower reinsurance costs. Claims ratios improved due to benign weather, and investment income got a boost from CTP expansion.

The broker highlights system modernisation, exit from broker channel, and favourable reinsurance renewals support near-term performance.

However, higher retention in a low-churn market implies rising competition and potential premium rate pressure for both insurers.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $9.10.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.62 Difference: $0.48
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Even without a step change in industry exploration levels, Citi expects Imdex to maintain its resilience, underpinned by progressive premiumisation and sequential uplift in volumes.

Although junior miners remain in hibernation, they have actively raised funds over the past five months to August, highlights the broker. A glass-half-full perspective suggests to the analysts this could signal an impending surge in exploration activity.

Industry feedback indicates a rise in enquiries from juniors, though this has yet to translate into increased exploration activity, cautions Citi.

The $3.55 target and Neutral rating are kept.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.18
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MAU as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Magnetic Resources received all mining leases for the Lady Julie Gold Project (LJGP), including LJN4 (M38/1315) plus M38/1317 and M38/1318, along with required infrastructure licences.

With approvals complete, the next key milestone is project financing to advance LJGP into production.

The company also recently published a Feasibility Study for the project, which included a maiden 1Moz reserve, and pre-production capex of -$375m.

The broker reminds the company could be a potential M&A target given the asset quality and proximity to large acquisitive miners.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $3.98.

Target price is $3.98 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $2.63
If MAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 195% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

The UBS quarterly consumer survey of around 1,000 Australian adults, conducted between August 12 and August 27, delivered the strongest readings since the series began in late 2019.

Consumer sentiment has become increasingly energised, highlights the broker, aligning with stronger domestic economic data over the past six weeks.

It's noted these results are consistent with broadly favourable trading updates and outlooks provided by listed companies during the August reporting season.

UBS now suggests domestic earning Small Caps (and some pockets of value) can continue to claw their way back against the larger companies. 

The strong survey responses on spending intentions for home improvement and Furniture/household appliances supports the recent inclusion of Metcash in the broker's preferred list of stocks.

The Buy rating and $4.35 target are maintained for Metcash.

UBS still expect the RBA in September to hold the cash rate, and then in November cut by -25bps, to a terminal trough of 3.35%.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.41
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NHC as Hold (3) -

New Hope's FY25 underlying EBITDA was pre-reported, but the net profit of $439m missed Bell Potter's forecast due to higher-than-expected net finance and tax expenses.

Dividend beat the broker's forecast but was in line with the company's current policy to pay higher dividend vs progressing share buyback. FY26 guidance will be issued at the 1Q update in November.

The broker cut FY26-28 New Ackland production forecast as rail constraints across the West Moreton and Brisbane network are expected to persist. Cost forecast also lowered after FY25 group unit cost was down -8% y/y at $84/t.

The broker also updated the model to factor in the latest Malabar resource update, after the company lifted its stake to 25.97% by buying an additional 3%.

FY26 EPS forecast trimmed by -9% and FY27 raised by 2%. Hold. Target unchanged at $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

New Hope's FY25 underlying net profit was in line with Macquarie's forecast. Operating cash flow met the broker's estimate but free cash flow beat by 10%, while capex was -8% lower.

The disappointment was in the outlook, with the growth path presented by the company suggesting lower-than-expected coal production in FY26. 

The broker cut FY26 production forecast by -8%, resulting in a -2% cut to EBITDA forecast. FY27 production forecast was left unchanged but EBITDA saw a 6% upgrade.

Target cut to $3.80 from $4.00 as the broker also incorporated lower valuation for Malabar. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

In a fully underwritten placement at $7.25, an -8% discount to the last close, Paladin Energy has raised $300m in equity capital and capitalised on the 17% rally month-to-date in the share price, Citi believes.

The funding raising is expected to be used for the final investment decision on Patterson Lake (Canada), while management highlighted Langer Heinrich is performing ahead of the analyst's expectations for the quarter to date, ending Aug 31, with processed and feed grade of 0.8mt at 495ppm.

Cost of production at US$40/lb is below guidance of US$44-US$48/lb. Realised price of US$67.4/lb and FY26 production guidance confirmed at 4-4.4mlbs U308 with sales of 3.8-4.2mlbs.

Adjusting for the issue, Citi lowers its EPS estimates by -90.1% in FY26 and -31% in FY27 for dilution.

Target price is lowered to $9 from $9.30. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.74 Difference: $1.26
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Equal-weight (3) -

Paladin Energy has launched a fully underwritten $300m equity raising at $7.25 per share, an -8% discount to last close, alongside a $20m share purchase plan.

Morgan Stanley notes the proceeds will support the Patterson Lake South (PLS) development, including front-end engineering, design work for regulatory approvals, exploration, and working capital.

The broker highlights Paladin held US$2.5m net cash and a US$50m undrawn facility as at June, with PLS capital costs estimated at -US$1.22bn including contingency.

Morgan Stanley attributes around $1.50 per share of its base case valuation of Paladin Energy to PLS, discounted by -50%.

The broker expects investors to focus on Langer Heinrich Mine performance as ramp-up continues through FY26.

Equal-weight. Target $7.30. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.74 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Post Paladin Energy's $320m equity capital raising to fund its Patterson Lake South project through to the final investment decision and potential Canadian approval in FY27, Ord Minnett downgrades the stock to Hold from Accumulate. Target moves to $7.60 from $7.70.

Management is aiming for final investment decision and approvals by FY27, and the raise is above the previously highlighted capex of -US$1.23b on pre-production for Patterson.

Some $120m will be used to boost working capital at Langer Heinrich and lifts Paladin's cash position to US$194m in FY26, as lower grade inventory had eroded cash flow and was placing pressure on cash burn.

At current levels post the 20% rally since late August, the stock is looking fully valued, the report suggests, hence the downgrade.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.74 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy raised $300m via equity placement and began $20m share purchase plan, all at $7.25/share, including the Canadian allocation.

UBS notes the company plans to spend -$170m to take Patterson Lake South (PLS) to the pre-FID stage, -$100m for working capital and future exploration, -$20m for planned FY26 exploration and -$10m for miscellaneous costs.

The broker notes update on the Langer Heinrich mine showed production in the first two months of FY26 is tracking towards the upper end of guidance, though sales are tracking below.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9, as the equity raise is regarded as positive news due to de-risking PLS.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.74 Difference: $1.26
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights national new listings fell -12% on the prior year in August, as the rate of decline rose from -8% in July despite an easier cycle comparison.

For FY26, new listings have fallen by -10% on the previous year compared to the analyst's forecast of -2% for 1H26, while data from Cotality (CoreLogic previously) suggests new listings are down -11% over the last four weeks.

Citi notes feedback from real estate agents that the delayed rate cut has impacted vendors and their inclination to sell, with enquiries picking up since the recent rate cut, and the broker believes listings can pick up in 2Q26.

Neutral rated with $279.25 target.

Target price is $279.25 Current Price is $228.31 Difference: $50.94
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $275.04, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RFF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS notes Rural Funds’ share price has lagged on balance sheet and growth concerns, but with self-funded capex capacity and DPU growth ahead, these pressures are easing.

The stock looks attractive in the broker's view (trading at -29% discount to NAV) with asset sales as potential near-term catalysts.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $2.10 from $1.93.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.175
If RFF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Super Retail has announced the departure of its CEO following additional disclosures relating to romantic relations with the former Chief Human Resources Officer.

The broker considers the leadership uncertainty material given the outgoing CEO was highly regarded by investors. The stock price is expected to trade sharply lower in response.

Interim leadership will be provided by long-serving CFO David Burns, while a search process is underway, observes Citi.

The analyst expects the board will assess two internal candidates, including Mr Burns and divisional heads, as well as external options.

Buy rating and $20.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $16.52 Difference: $3.98
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.48, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie analysed insurer Youi's FY25 result for implications for Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group.

Youi's 2H25 gross written premium (GWP) growth of 24.2% was significantly higher than the two insurers, driven by NSW CTP share gains and direct channel momentum.

Net earned premium growth outpaced GWP due to quota share exits and lower reinsurance costs. Claims ratios improved due to benign weather, and investment income got a boost from CTP expansion.

The broker highlights system modernisation, exit from broker channel, and favourable reinsurance renewals support near-term performance.

However, higher retention in a low-churn market implies rising competition and potential premium rate pressure for both insurers.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $20.60.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $20.94 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.80, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

Tuas is assessed by Citi in the context of a potential merger with M1, with the broker highlighting pro forma revenue market share of 13.5% in a Singapore telecommunications market worth around SGD7bn.

The analysts suggest Tuas is likely to pursue an aggressive stance on growth across both value and premium segments, with the combined entity potentially capturing more than one third of the market over time.

Synergies from global telecommunications deals over the last two decades have averaged around 30% of pre-deal earnings (EBITDA), excluding capital expenditure, which Citi views as a floor for Tuas and M1.

The broker expects additional capital expenditure synergies, particularly from 5G standalone network investment.

Citi raises its target price to $9.95 from $7.10, on unchanged forecasts but a higher assumed valuation multiple, and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $7.49 Difference: $2.46
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VGN as Buy (1) -

The UBS quarterly consumer survey of around 1,000 Australian adults, conducted between August 12 and August 27, delivered the strongest readings since the series began in late 2019.

Consumer sentiment has become increasingly energised, highlights the broker, aligning with stronger domestic economic data over the past six weeks.

It's noted these results are consistent with broadly favourable trading updates and outlooks provided by listed companies during the August reporting season.

UBS now suggests domestic earning Small Caps (and some pockets of value) can continue to claw their way back against the larger companies. 

Virgin Australia stands to benefit from the uplift recorded in travel and entertainment spending intentions, highlight the analysts.

The Buy rating and $4.10 target are maintained for Virgin Australia.

UBS still expect the RBA in September to hold the cash rate, and then in November cut by -25bps, to a terminal trough of 3.35%.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.82
If VGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources