Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

Citi has incorporated the eighteen month suspension at Capricorn Copper into its outlook for 29Metals, basing its model on the assumption that restart of the project will come at a -$70m cost alongside a further $40m insurance payout. 

With the company's March quarter results due tomorrow, Citi expects further visibility over Capricorn Copper tailings. The broker assumes additional liquidity of $100m is needed, but notes much depends on the path forward for the project.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to 45 cents from 55 cents.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

In line with management's plan to bolster liquidity, notes Morgan Stanley, 29Metals and and Glencore have agreed a binding terms sheet for a US$50m offtake finance facility.

The package includes long-term offtake for copper and zinc concentrates on market-based terms, explains the broker.

The company has also made progress on the Capricorn Copper insurance claim, with insurers committing to a further unallocated interim progress payment of $16m.

This payment relates to the surface component of the claim, explains Morgan Stanley. Work on the underground component of loss/
damage suffered is ongoing and will likely now accelerate, suggests the broker.

Overweight rating. Target 55c. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.08
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

With three listed Chinese infant milk formulas having recently reported, Bell Potter notes an average revenue growth decline of -20% year-on-year and an average contribution margin contraction of -500 basis points over the first half.

By comparison, says the broker, a2 Milk Co has reported 2% revenue growth and a milder -180 basis point contraction in the same period.

The broker points out infant milk formula imports into China have remained subdued, down -62% year-on-year in March. Bell Potter feels a2 Milk Co has well executed a transition to PRC labelling, and notes the company has sustained revenue in a falling market.

The Hold rating and target price of $5.70 are retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIZ as Outperform (1) -

Within New Zealand and the US, a lack of improvement in government travel and competition is weighing upon revenues of Air New Zealand, according to management.

The company has reduced FY24 profit (PBT) guidance to $190-230m from $200-240m, or -5% at the midpoint, while the operating decline is much worse at around -25%, explains Macquarie.

Helping to dampen the headline earnings decline, notes the analyst, management has seen slower utilisation in covid-related credits, and now sees full-year credit breakage of $95m, up from $65m.

Target falls to NZ75c from NZ77c. Outperform retained.

Current Price is $0.53. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIZ as Accumulate (2) -

Conditions continue to deteriorate for Air New Zealand, observes Ord Minnett, with the airline facing challenges with both domestic and international flying. 

As per the broker, leisure demand is declining amid a cost-of-living crisis, while corporate and government travel both remain subdued. Simultaneously, international competition has intensified. 

The airline is guiding to full year net profits of NZ$190-230m, representing a sharp decline from first half recorded profits of NZ$185m. 

The Accumulate rating and target price of 74 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.215
If AIZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy (1) -

A solid quarter from AMA Group says Bell Potter, with earnings up 43% year-on-year to $23.8m. The company reported an operating cash flow of -$6.8m and closed out the period with cash of $23.8m. 

While the company did reiterate full year guidance, total cash flow expectations were downgraded, which Bell Potter explains as a result of more restrictive trading terms. 

The broker continues to expect the refinancing will be completed sometime this quarter, and will likely be a catalyst for the share price.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 12 cents from 13 cents.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.065
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes futures trading and OTC clearing represented 21% of ASX revenues in FY23.

Based on volumes for April-24 interest rate futures, volumes may be up only 7% in the 2H of FY24 compared to the broker's 9.5% forecast.

Underweight. The $53.50 target is maintained for the ASX. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $53.50 Current Price is $63.35 Difference: minus $9.85 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $62.68, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

In a key milestone, according to Macquarie, Boss Energy has announced first uranium in drum at the Honeymoon project and stated "results during commissioning already exceed feasibility study forecasts'.

The broker points out first production from the Alta Mesa uranium project in South Texas is also expected in the 1H of 2024.

The company's total attributable production ramp-up from both mines to 3.0mlb per year will occur over the next three years, forecasts Macquarie. Honeymoon is also considered to have organic growth options.

The Outperform rating and $6.00 target for Boss Energy are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: $1.24
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights the importance of first production at Boss Energy's Honeymoon mine (the first drum of uranium has been produced), but will wait to see whether announced higher grade concentrate than the feasibilty study estimates can be sustained.

Management is also aiming to accelerate plans to increase the production rate and mine life at Honeymoon.

The Equal-weight rating and $4.60 target are maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

While Challenger's 3Q performance update revealed somewhat sluggish sales and book growth momentum, according to Morgans, upgraded FY24 profit guidance demonstrates the benefits of focusing on more profitable business.

Third quarter retail annuity sales and total Life sales fell by -19% and -13%, respectively, compared to the previous corresponding period. Funds under management (FUM) within the Funds Management division rose by 6% with positive institutional flows of $1bn.

Management raised FY24 Group NPBT guidance to the top end of the $555-$605m target range.

The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $7.96 from $7.80.

Target price is $7.96 Current Price is $6.80 Difference: $1.16
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.25, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy (1) -

While COG Financial Services' novated leasing net profits surpassed Bell Potter's forecasts at $2.4m, the asset management and lending segment reported a fifth consecutive quarterly decline with net profits of $1.3m. 

The broker notes at an operating level, net profits have increased 6.5% year-to-date. 

Bell Potter makes adjustments to earnings per share forecasts of between 5-8% for FY24 and FY25, reflecting a lower margin mix, increased technology investment, a higher contribution margin from novated leasing, and a projected rebound in net inflows for fixed income asset managers. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.70 from $1.84.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.485
If COG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COS as Hold (3) -

Cosol has entered into a binding agreement to acquire asset management consultancy business Core Asset Co for up to $6.1m. The company, notes Bell Potter, boasts a blue chip client base in the resources, utilities and agribusiness sectors.

The acquisition is expected to be immediately earnings accretive. Core Asset Co is expected to generate $6m in revenue and $1.6m in earnings in FY25, and the broker considers the purchase complimentary to Cosol's existing capabilities.

The broker assumes completion in late April or early May, allowing an approximate two month contribution in the current financial year.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.10 from $1.05.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.09
If COS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Endeavour Group's third quarter report, due early May, UBS is forecasting total sales of $2.86bn, equating to a 1% increase year-on-year. 

The broker anticipates total retail sales of $2.37bn, below market expectations, and expects inflation to prove a tailwind for the company. It anticipates total hotel sales of $487m. 

The Buy rating and target price of $6.00 are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.55
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.87, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its rating for Galan Lithium to Neutral from Outperform on increased execution and jurisdiction risks during the development phase of the Hombre Muerto West lithium brine project in Argentia.

Management has signed an agreement with the government of the Catamarca province (in northwestern Argentina) to pay
royalties on lithium chloride (LiCl) sales.

Under the agreement, the royalty rate will be set at 7%, higher than the company's definitive feasibility study (DFS) assumption of 3% and the broker's prior forecasts of 4.5%.

Macquarie slashes its target to 35c from 60c due to a downgrade of the earnings outlook and after assuming a higher weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

The Candelas lithium brine project is also removed from the analyst's forecasts given the potential change in the company's production plan over the medium term.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.015
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMU as Buy (1) -

Imugene has announced a development partnership with Kincell that will see the latter take on the manufacturing responsibilities for Azer-cel, with Kincell assuming the lease on Imugene's North Carolina manufacturing facility.

Bell Potter points out the partnership allows Imugene to re-focus on core competancies, including the development of new oncology drugs. 

The agreement will also see Kincell take some headcount from Imugene, and this reduction is expected to amount to US$32m in savings to Imugene over three years.

The Buy rating and target price of 15 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.065
If IMU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

In line with the consensus forecast, production for Karoon Energy was 3.11mmboe, a rise of 18% year-on-year, but it was a tough quarter, notes Morgans.

The broker lists floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) issues at Bauna (necessitating extra maintenance), larger costs to fix SPS-88, and a downgrade for Who Dat earnings from operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

There was also effectively a one-year delay to the Neon project in Brazil, note the analyst.

Management reduced 2024 production guidance to 10.5-12.5mmboe from 11.2-13.5mmboe, largely driven by a decision at Who Dat by the operator to reduce gas volumes in the mix due to poor Henry Hub prices, explains Morgans.

The Add rating is maintained for Karoon Energy. The target falls to $2.80 from $3.10.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.75
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KAR as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Karoon Energy reported an 18% production increase in its third quarter, missing Ord Minnett's forecasts due to lower output from Who Dat.The company lowered its full year production guidance to 10.5-112.5m barrels oil equivalent. 

The broker has lowered its full year earnings per share forecast to 60 cents, noting strength in oil futures has largely offset much of the production downgrade impact. 

The broker does expect Who Dat production issues to be comparatively short term.  

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target price of $2.65 is retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.6
If KAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Metro Mining exports bauxite from its Bauxite Hills operation in Far North Queensland to customers in China, and management is reporting the bauxite price has increased by 20% in the March quarter compared to the prior quarter.

The overall bauxite market has tightened due to strong Chinese import demand and bauxite export bans from Indonesia, notes Shaw and Partners, which expects the price to continue to climb.

The analysts suggest strong cash flow should allow for rapid debt reduction at Metro Mining, leading to a positive share price reaction, given the balance sheet has been a lingering concern for the market.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 7c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.027
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MZZ as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Matador Mining has finished the March quarter with a cash balance of $8.6m and is well funded to complete the full scope of exploration works in 2024, according to Shaw and Partners.

The broker points out Matador provides cheap exposure to an exciting new gold exploration province at the Cape Ray Shear project in Newfoundland, Canada. Significant near-term news flow is expected from assay results.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 19c target price are retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.104
If MZZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 121% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Despite uncertainty, Citi notes from commentary by Nufarm's peers growing industry optimism, though any upside surprise is unlikely in the company's 1H (ending March 31).

The broker sees numerous catalysts for a 2H rebound including: low inventory levels; stabilisation of input costs; and solid farmer economics.

The analysts forecast FY24 EBITDA of $438m, with a 1H/2H skew of 58:42.

Citi's Buy rating is maintained based on the potential emergence of improved and stable operating condition across the industry. The target increased to $5.80 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $0.66
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

This update is simply an adjustment for the 10-for-one shares consolidation executed by Paladin Energy.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.04 Difference: $0.46
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Qoria has announced its divestment of Migiri, and the renegotiation of terms for its Educator Impact acquisition. Ord Minnett expects these events will drive around $1.5m in annual cost savings and free up around $6m in additional funding capacity. 

The broker expects this will leave Qoria with more than $15m in available funds as of the end of the financial year. 

It believes the company is looking for strategic options for other non-core subsidiaries, and notes any progress should further strengthen its balance sheet position.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 51 cents from 50 cents.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.065
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Neutral (3) -

While most 3Q metrics were previously released, management at Ramelius Resources increased FY24 guidance, which was slightly better than Macquarie anticipated.

Guidance increased by 6% to 285-295koz with costs (AISC) between $1,550-1,650oz. The company produced 86.9koz in the 3Q.

The analyst retains a cautious view on Ramelius as the Rebecca pre feasibility (PFS) due in mid-2024 could be weaker than market expectations. Neutral.

The broker's target rises to $2.00 from $1.90 on a valuation roll-forward and an increased FY24 EPS forecast due to the better 3Q performance and higher-than-expected guidance.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a "strong" 3Q operational result for Ramelius Resources. While production and cash numbers were pre-released, costs and the outlook came in better than the broker's expectations.

Strong free cash flow (FCF) for the upcoming June quarter (the broker forecasts quarter-ending cash of $500m, no debt) should position management to move on both organic and any inorganic opportunities.

Management increased FY24 production guidance to 285-295koz at  a cost (AISC) of $1,550-1,650/oz from 265-280koz at 1,750-1,850/oz. FY24 capex guidance was also reduced to $45-50m from $50-60m.

Price target gains 5c to $2.30. Buy.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.24
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Following the company's 3Q activities report, Shaw and Partners raises its price target for Ramelius Resources to $2.33 from $2.20 due to upgraded cost and production guidance.

Ramelius is set for a record production year, according to the broker, given this is the third production guidance upgrade this financial year.

For the quarter, the company produced 86,928oz at a cost (AISC) of $1,344/oz, and the quarter-ending cash and bullion balance was $407.1m after a record $125.3m of free cash flow.

FY24 production guidance was raised to 285-295koz from 265-280koz, while AISC guidance fell to $1,550-$1,650/oz from $1,750-$1,850/oz.

Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.27
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.21, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

South32 stocks experienced a rally yesterday amid news of key aluminium and alumina assets performing. Year-to-date, points out Citi, aluminium production is up 1%, with Hillside achieving record production and Brazil continuing its ramp up toward nameplate capacity.

The broker also notes news of insurance cover for Australian Manganese likely spurring the share price increase, with operations having been on hold since March following cyclone damage.

South32 is working with its insurers to assess expected insurance recoveries, and is confident the impact can be mitigated through insurance payments and higher near-term manganese prices.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target price increases to $3.80 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.43
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32's 3Q production results were "mixed", assesses Macquarie. Metallurgical coal and aluminium volumes proved in line with consensus forecasts, while nickel and gold delivered beats of 3%, and copper and zinc missed by -18% and -5%, respectively.

FY24 guidance ex Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO) remained unchanged. GEMCO was given a 3Q FY25 restart date, with potential insurance claims offsetting the broker's forecast -US$350m in remediation costs.

Macquarie assumes an around US$200m insurance payout to GEMCO in FY27 which will be recognised as an exceptional item.

The Outperform rating is maintained and the target rises to $3.90 from $3.80.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.53
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a small negative share market reaction to South32's 3Q operational update. There was a slightly negative production quarter, notes the broker, though group FY24 guidance was maintained.

In mid-March, the aftermath of cyclone Megan prompted the company to halt manganese operations in the Northern Territory. Guidance for FY24 has been withdrawn and management expects to recommence wharf operations and export sales in the 3Q of FY25.

Overweight. Target $3.35. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Following its third quarter South32 has retained full year guidance, with UBS seeing early signs of improved operational stability among key assets including Worsley, IMC and the company's aluminium operations. 

As per the broker, the company benefited from improved cash flow as almuminium working capital reduced and the price improved. 

The stock remains the broker's preferred diversified exposure to aluminium, alumina and copper.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.90 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.53
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley sees potential for a special dividend to be declared at Westpac's 1H result on May 6 rather than another buyback later in the year.

The broker highlights the bank's healthy capital position and its around $3.5bn of franking credits at FY23.

While management has not commented, the analysts point out management at CommBank ((CBA)) has previously noted dividends are now the "only distribution mechanism" for surplus franking credits.

The Underweight rating and $23 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: minus $2.73 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.20, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources