Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ACX as Overweight (1) -

The company has reiterated FY17 guidance and its long-term 20% sales growth target. Morgan Stanley upgrades its target to $5.05 from $4.00, envisaging a higher probability of a material upgrade in FY18.

Morgan Stanley believes it too early to reflect the 20% target in its forecasts as there is no data on new contracts,  up-selling or retention rates. The broker acknowledges a logical pathway to a re-acceleration of growth amid confirmation that execution is on track.

Overweight retained. Industry view is In-line.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: $0.61
If ACX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AGL as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts point out AGL has received notification that workers will strike at Loy Yang for rolling 1 hour periods from 15 May. In response AGL will now lock out workers from 15 May.

Given that Loy Yang is critical infrastructure whose importance has only increased post Hazelwood closure, the analysts believe the Victorian government will intervene to avoid any disastrous impact on electricity prices, or worse (blackouts).

No changes made to Sell rating, forecasts or $26.87 price target.

Target price is $26.87 Current Price is $27.58 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.99, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank finds several data sources which suggest a recovery in the minerals exploration market is underway, which is estimated to deliver strong growth in earnings per share for the company for the next  two years.

The broker believes a re-rating is warranted and rates the stock a Buy, given its exposure to the recovering market and a robust life sciences business.

Deutsche Bank believes the stock is trading at an undeserved discount versus its peers. Target is raised to $7.34 from $6.74.

Target price is $7.34 Current Price is $6.26 Difference: $1.08
If ALQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates APN as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found the company's trading update mixed, with overall revenue flat for the first four months of 2017. That said, Adshel's performance improved significantly in March and forward bookings remain solid, with the broker expecting the rate of digitisation in Australia to increase as permits are obtained.

Credit Suisse believes the company will be a beneficiary if the merger between APN Outdoor ((APO)) and oOh!media ((OML)) does not go ahead, given the deal has the potential to erode Adshel's market position.

Outperform retained. Target is lowered to $3.20 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.78
If APN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates APN as Buy (1) -

At the AGM update the company pointed to softer-than-expected revenues in the year to date. Deutsche Bank adjusts estimates to now expect a decline of -4% in the Australian Radio Network revenues in the first half.

The broker reduces the Adshel FY17 growth rate forecast slightly,  to 9% from 10%. The broker remains encouraged by the continued growth in Adshel.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.88
If APN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APN as Outperform (1) -

APN's AGM revealed radio had a softer quarter than expected but after a mixed start to the year, outdoor advertising saw significant improvement. The broker remains long term positive on radio but suggests FY17 will be a weak year. That, and higher corporate costs, lead to earnings forecast downgrades.

APN will change its name from the obsolete Australian Provincial Newspapers to HT & E, meaning Here, There & Everywhere. Groan. Has someone spoken to Sir Paul?

Outperform retained. Target falls to $3.00 from $3.35.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.58
If APN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates APO as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating, reducing the target to $5.85 from $6.30. The stock does not appear overly expensive but the broker observes contract renewal risk in 2017-18 is elevated relative to previous years.

Transit remains an ongoing issue and how much the company's business has declined in this area is uncertain. The broker suspects street furniture peers are growing on the back of digitisation whereas the company's buses are predominantly locked into static display.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.5
If APO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APO as Buy (1) -

The ACCC's preliminary view is that the merger with oOh!media ((OML)) would substantially lessen competition in outdoor advertising and increase barriers to entry for other players. A final decision is due by July 6.

The companies have both stated they will work with the ACCC to address matters raised.

There is no impact on valuation, as UBS has not factored in the proposed merger. The broker considers the stock inexpensive. Buy and $6.00 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.65
If APO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Underperform (5) -

Following the ASX presentation to the Macquarie Conference, the broker has trimmed forecast earnings but on an increase in assumed return on capital invested, has lifted its target to $46.50 from $43.90.

Underperform retained, with low earnings growth and a PE in excess of 20x offering little relative value.

Target price is $46.50 Current Price is $51.10 Difference: minus $4.6 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $48.23, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Buy (1) -

The company has reiterated FY17 guidance for underlying net profit growth of 25%.

This, coupled with a reiteration of a commitment to the berry, mushroom and China growth projects, confirms for UBS the company is on track to deliver compound earnings growth in the mid teens on a 3-5 year view.

UBS lifts near-term forecasts by 2-5%. Buy rating retained. Target is raised $4.80 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: $0.36
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLQ as Outperform (1) -

Clean Teq suggested at its presentation to the Macquarie Conference that cobalt and nickel demand will rise on the back of a shift to higher density batteries, away from lithium, driven by the growing Chinese electric car market. The company has received positive feedback for its product.

The broker suggests the biggest measure of success in the short term will be securing offtake agreements once the bankable feasibility study for Syerston is completed later this year. Outperform and $1.30 target retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.595
If CLQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COH as Underperform (5) -

The company's investor briefing outlined priorities and reiterated guidance for FY17 underlying net profit of $210-225m, up 10-20% on FY16.

Credit Suisse observes a more targeted marketing approach to recipient populations, while significant growth opportunities exist in emerging markets although these are likely to be volatile given the nature of tenders.

Underperform rating and $121.00 target.

Target price is $121.00 Current Price is $141.52 Difference: minus $20.52 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.78, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Hold (3) -

The company's investor briefing confirmed a lift in developed market growth of 8-10% per annum for the last two years supported by an investment in  its sales force and services.

The company has mapped out its market opportunity based on the incidence of severe/profound hearing loss in around 37m people compared with just 50,000 patients implanted per annum by all manufacturers.

Ord Minnett envisages upside risks to medium-term unit sales growth estimates of 8%. Hold rating is maintained. The target is $125.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $141.52 Difference: minus $16.52 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.78, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

Increasingly, the company envisages services and outcomes as its differentiator versus technology alone, UBS observes.

The broker believes this is a logical re-orientation for the company, considering the large under-penetration of product, and market growth rather than market share is the main opportunity.

Guidance has been reiterated for net profit of  $210-225m, which compares to UBS estimates of $220m. Sell rating retained. The broker believes the stock is high quality but fully priced. Target is $125.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $141.52 Difference: minus $16.52 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.78, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

The company has upgraded FY17 guidance and now expects to beat $97m in EBITDA, the prior top end of the range. Morgan Stanley adjusts numbers accordingly and lifts assumptions on UK and operating leverage which results in a 3% upgrade to estimates.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating. Target is raised to $23.50 from $21.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.83, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CTX as Outperform (1) -

March quarter results were solid, in Credit Suisse's view. The broker still struggles to reconcile the valuation with the rest of the market.

The broker is hoping for good upside from cost reductions at the August results and that greater upside for shareholders will ensue from revelations regarding the latent value in physical assets or an actual crystallisation of those assets.

Outperform rating and $39.70 target maintained.

Target price is $39.70 Current Price is $31.19 Difference: $8.51
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Buy (1) -

The March quarter net profit of $154m was up modestly on the prior corresponding quarter and Deutsche Bank believes this is a solid outcome. While sales volumes were flat,  EBIT growth was driven by continued margin expansion.

The ACCC has announced that it will not oppose the company's proposed acquisition of Milemaker. As a result, Caltex now expects the transaction to close next week.

Deutsche Bank believes, on balance, this approval strengthens the probability the ACCC will approve the proposed  BP-Woolworths ((WOW)) transaction. Target is $35.45. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $35.45 Current Price is $31.19 Difference: $4.26
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Equal-weight (3) -

The company's AGM update signals financial results for the March quarter are slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. The ACCC has also stated it will not oppose the Milemaker acquisition.

The broker believes uncertainty still exists regarding volume and margin in the marketing & supply business. Also, the rate of growth in retail diesel volumes appears to have fallen sharply. The broker observes a divergence between the trends in premium gasoline and diesel. Retail diesel makes up a large proportion of the company's premium diesel sales.

Equal-weight rating retained. In-Line industry view. Target is $32.60.

Target price is $32.60 Current Price is $31.19 Difference: $1.41
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTX as Buy (1) -

The ACCC will not oppose the Milemaker acquisition and Caltex remains confident it will be able to close any earnings gap from the loss of the Woolworths ((WOW)) volumes.

UBS observes margin improvement underpinned growth in the company's March quarter net profit, as Lytton benefitted from improved refiner margins and marketing & supply benefited from Ampol Singapore and higher product margins.

Buy rating and $33 target retained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.19 Difference: $1.81
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.90, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

The broker has cut Downer forecast earnings per share by -10% to reflect the capital raising behind the Spotless ((SPO)) takeover bid. Target falls to $6.30 from $7.10.

Spotless has rejected the offer but it's up to shareholders, given no other bid emerging. The bid period has been extended but the risk to Downer, the broker suggests, is a protracted process that does not result in full control. Neutral retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $0.41
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.04, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ECX as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts saw a pleasing result, accompanied by the surprise acquisition of Grays Ecommerce ((GEG)). The latter has made the stockbroker visibly more cautious. Estimates lowered and the price target retreats to $4.01 from $4.13.

Citi believes cross-selling across the newly acquired platform might prove more challenging than management suggests. While market share is still growing, the analysts also believe competition in fleet leasing remains fierce. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.36
If ECX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

First half results  were in line with Credit Suisse expectations and the reaffirmation of FY17 guidance was no surprise.

The acquisition of Grays ((GEG)) did surprise the broker. At first glance it appears to have little strategic fit but with further analysis the broker concludes that the rationale is sound and the company should be able to achieve most of the synergy targets.

Outperform rating retained. Target is $4.25.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.6
If ECX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ECX as Buy (1) -

First half cash net profit was -3% below Deutsche Bank's estimates. The broker is surprised by the acquisition of Grays ((GEG)), given the focus on fleet consolidation that is currently underway.

Management has a strong record in executing on acquisitions, which provides some comfort, although Deutsche Bank is cautious given the added complexity to the business.

The broker observes the core business is performing well and underlying conditions are favourable, while the stock offers stronger earnings growth and an undemanding valuation.

Buy rating and $4.50 target retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.85
If ECX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ECX as Outperform (1) -

Eclipx announced a first half profit short of the broker but 16% up on last year. FY guidance is unchanged and the company has acquired Gray's eCommerce Group ((GEG)). The broker sees the acquisition as earnings and value accretive but is unclear on the strategic motive.

The broker nevertheless notes management has built considerable momentum in new business written. Outperform. Target rises to $4.40 from $4.22.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.75
If ECX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the acquisition of Grays ((GEG)) diversifies the company and provides potential to drive finance business and control end-of-lease sales.

The broker believes there are clear growth opportunities in the acquisition, although the business will become more complex. Meanwhile, first half results were slightly below Morgan Stanley's estimates, because of a second half skew in consumer.

The broker retains an Overweight rating and $4.55 target. Sector view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.9
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -

Net operating income was 2% ahead of UBS estimates in the first half. The company has acquired Grays ((GEG)) for $179m and expects single digit accretion.

The company intends to grow the plant & equipment and automotive option businesses, restructure certain consumer segments and reduce costs.

UBS found the results sound and a Buy and $4.00 target are retained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.35
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates FXJ as Hold (3) -

The company's customary second half trading update has signalled overall revenue is down -6% while Domain revenue is up 10%. The company continues to expect the spin-off of Domain will be completed before the end of the year and should have $150m  in net debt as a separate entity.

Deutsche Bank observes weaker metro media and Macquarie media  are partly offset by better-than-expected performances in the New Zealand business.

Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and 90c target.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target).
If FXJ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FXJ as Neutral (3) -

The company's trading update signals group revenues are now tracking down -6% in the second half. The Domain de-merger is expected to be completed at the end of the year, subject to ATO and shareholder vote outcomes.

Domain group revenues are up 10% year-on-year. UBS assumes that roughly half of the incremental loss in revenues can be offset by cost reductions.

As a result the broker's forecasts for earnings per share reduce -1% over FY17-19.  Neutral rating and $0.90 target retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target).
If FXJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates KMD as Buy (1) -

March quarter sales growth was 11.9%, a strong acceleration from the first half rate of 3.4%. The company notes performance was assisted by improved execution in promotions and new products.

Although unable to determine the extent to which promotional activity assisted sales, Deutsche Bank believes the strong performance implies solid underlying trading and puts the company in a strong position.

Buy and NZ$2.25 target retained.

Current Price is $1.97. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi's title above today's research update says it all, and not just for NAB, but for the sector overall: "Modest beat not enough to keep the stock running". Post a slightly better than consensus financial performance, the stockbroker downgrades to Sell, price target remains $30.50.

Bad debts remain low, revenues are improving and costs remain under control. It's just that the share price has rallied hard and the analysts do not believe current level will prove sustainable.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: minus $2.41 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse found the first half result positive with a degree of top-line revenue growth and some positive trends on the balance sheet.

The broker would have preferred to witness more ambitious productivity aspirations as well as the stated focus on returns being more demonstrable in the numbers.

Outperform rating and $34.50 target retained.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: $1.59
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NAB as Buy (1) -

The first half result provided further evidence for Deutsche Bank that the portfolio of businesses is now stable and having a positive impact on performance and is driving lower earnings volatility.

First half revenue met expectations while the highlight was the strong capital outcome, which the broker believes should put the bank in a better position to meet the forthcoming "unquestionably strong" requirements from APRA.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $34.30 from $33.40.

Target price is $34.30 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: $1.39
If NAB meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

NAB's result featured low bad debts and solid organic capital generation, the broker notes, but also anaemic revenue growth. The broker remains cautious on the banking sector given a lack of earnings upside and a drag to come from a cooling housing market.

NAB is better placed than peers given its overweight exposure to business banking, the broker suggests. Outperform retained. Target falls to $34.00 from $34.50.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: $1.09
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley observes solid outcomes on costs, credit quality and capital in the first half but believes it will be a challenge for the bank to increase revenue and deliver the upgrades needed to justify current trading multiples.

The broker expects home loan re-pricing benefits to underpin around five basis points of margin expansion by the first half of FY18 and revenue growth of 3-4% in FY17 and FY18. The main challenges are considered to be growth in the business and private bank segments.

Target is raised to $28.60 from $28.50. Underweight rating retained. Industry view is: In-Line.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: minus $4.31 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Add (1) -

First half cash earnings were better than Morgans forecast. The broker continues with the view that tailwinds are building for the bank sector.

The run-off in low-returning institutional loan exposures across all major banks is assisting capital positions and providing support for dividends.

Add retained. Target is $35.00.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: $2.09
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

First half cash earnings of $3.29bn was in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. With volumes below expectations and expenses above forecasts, the overall outcome was saved, in the broker's opinion, by lower-quality items such as higher trading gains and slightly lower provisioning.

The broker believes the result is symptomatic of the sector, an absence of earnings growth and a holding pattern, awaiting recent re-pricing initiatives to flow through.

The broker retains a Hold rating and $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: minus $2.91 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

First half results were in line with forecasts. The highlights for UBS were revenue growth of 1.7%, a low bad debt charge, and strong asset quality. The most disappointing element was that falling revenue per share has continued.

UBS supports the bank's strategy and envisages further opportunities in business banking but questions whether the book is big enough to matter and be a differentiator for the bank.

The broker believes NAB is caught in Australia's trap, as a large mortgage bank with a dash of business banking. The broker envisages limited room for further appreciation in the share price and downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $32.91 Difference: minus $2.91 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Sell (5) -

UBS takes a very conservative view and delays the expected return of Cadia until late in the September quarter. The broker assumes nameplate will not be achieved until late in FY18.

FY18 group production estimates are cut by -16% and this reduces FY18 earnings estimates by -50%. The broker expects the company to pull out all stops to rehabilitate the asset and acknowledges estimates could prove conservative.

Sell retained. Target is reduced to $12.68 from $14.02.

Target price is $12.68 Current Price is $20.74 Difference: minus $8.06 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.05, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OML as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company's overweight exposure to road and retail has served it well, in Credit Suisse's view. The ACCC has formed a preliminary view on the company's intended merger with APN Outdoor ((APO)) regarding a substantial lessening of competition if it goes ahead in the current form.

Credit Suisse observes the statement provides very little room to manoeuvre, with no obvious areas where a compromise can be reached.

The broker notes oOh!media operates in less challenged categories than does APN Outdoor and does not have the same extent of near-term contract risk.

As the stock trades at a discount to APO, the broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $5.05.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $0.72
If OML meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Buy (1) -

The company has divulged a further energy -related cost increase once legacy NSW electricity contracts expire in December.

This is estimated to be in the order of $12-16m on an annualised basis, and follows increases in gas and electricity costs across the company's South Australian glass and NSW recycled paper manufacturing.

UBS reduces forecasts for earnings per share by -2% for FY18 and -5-6% in FY19 to reflect the impact. The broker believes earnings continue to be supported by acquisitions in North America.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.35
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Buy (1) -

Qantas' March quarter update showed Revenue per Available Seat Kilometre (RASK) improving domestically and slowing internationally. According to Citi, the latter was expected, the first is an ongoing positive and ahead of expectations.

Citi analysts point out domestic EBIT is on course for best performance ever in the history of the airline. As a group, Qantas is on course for its second highest profit result ever.

The analysts seem convinced consensus earnings remain too low for FY18 and beyond. Buy and $4.71 target retained. No changes made to forecasts.

Target price is $4.71 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.29
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Qantas provided a trading update and initial FY17 guidance, the midpoint of which is 2% above consensus forecasts. Domestic revenue bounced back in the March Q, the broker notes, from a weak first half, following reduced capacity, while International's revenue decline was less than that of the first half.

The broker's FY17 forecast already sat above consensus so no changes. An upbeat investor day is expected today. Outperform and $4.90 target retained.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.48
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the ascent in the company's share price has been fuelled, in some degree, by the assumption of a significant improvement in underlying operating conditions and fails to find any evidence in the third quarter trading update.

On some metrics the domestic performance was better than expected while the performance of the international business was worse than expected. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating  and raises the target to $4.15 from $4.05.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Buy (1) -

March quarter overall revenue declined -1.4%, although UBS observes domestic was strong despite the absence of Easter and the trend is expected to continue in the June quarter.

The broker expects a large swing to positive in international revenue in the June quarter because of the lower capacity outlook and the lapping of a full year of declines. Forecasts are upgraded by 8-13% across the next three years.

Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $4.70 from $3.95.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.28
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.52, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

The broker makes no changes following Rio's AGM but notes value continues to be driven by progress on various assets. The company continues to explore divestment opportunities for non-core assets but reiterates no intention to undertake a South32-style spin-off.

Outperform and $75 target retained.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $58.32 Difference: $16.68
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.63, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Chairman Peter Coates has announced at the AGM he will step down from the board over the coming months. Credit Suisse believes it is time for a change at the top but is astonished by the chairman's statement that the foundations have been laid for a return to paying a dividend.

The broker believes, if ever there is a business that should not pay a dividend, it is Santos. The broker believes shareholders will be placed in a perilous position if a dividend was reinstated. No commitment on time was given, but that a decision will be reviewed in August.

Neutral retained. Target is $3.80.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.16
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.40, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Sluggish retail spending, bad weather and tough comparables are all conspiring to cause a slowdown in sales growth for all components of the Super Retail Group, find analysts at Citi. But earnings are not affected, they add, highlighting the quality of the business.

Citi analysts do concede the Leisure turnaround remains critical for the company's growth outlook. While this is a source of ongoing uncertainty for the stock, the analysts seem confident all is progressing well.

There will be exposure to Amazon, but Citi analysts don't seem deterred, instead arguing they prefer to invest in "market leading retailers who have authority in the categories in which they operate". Target loses 10c to $11.80. Buy.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $2.23
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.11, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Credit Suisse reduces sales growth and gross margin assumptions to reflect increased investment in price and this results in earnings downgrades across the forecast horizon.

The broker observes the consumer environment has deteriorated, which is reflected in a marked slowing down in sales growth in the second half across all divisions.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $8.68 from $10.42.

Target price is $8.68 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.11, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Like-for-like sales growth over the last 10 weeks has slowed across all of the company's divisions with only leisure exceeding its first half growth rate, the company reports.

 Deutsche Bank is wary of extrapolating sales performance from many particular trading period given the uncertainty around timing and intensity of promotions.

Nevertheless, while gross margin is supportive and considered a positive, the broker acknowledges retail conditions are undoubtedly challenging.

Buy rating and $11.50 target retained.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $1.93
If SUL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.11, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Overweight (1) -

The company's trading update signals slowing sales growth across its divisions. Morgan Stanley believes this is explained by a slowdown in the wider retail market and some pulling forward in demand from the Masters liquidation.

Importantly, margins held up well, the broker observes. The broker also notes the leisure business is in the early stages of a turnaround and remains encouraged by the sales growth of 7.0% for the first 17 weeks of the second half.

An Overweight rating and In-Line industry view are retained. Target is $12.00.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $2.43
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.11, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUL as Add (1) -

The trading update reveals softer top-line sales momentum in automotive and sports. All divisions slowed since the first half although leisure remains relatively buoyant, Morgans observes.

The broker highlights that, with the timing and impact of Amazon's entry into Australia unknown, multiples in the sector are likely to remain constrained.

 Nevertheless, the stock is trading on undemanding multiples and offers double-digit growth in earnings per share in FY18 and FY19, in the broker's calculation.

Add rating retained. Target slips to $11.51 from $11.54.

Target price is $11.51 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $1.94
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.11, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUL as Accumulate (2) -

Sales growth has slowed across all divisions while margins are expanding and the company has guided to EBIT growth of 16-18% for FY17. Ord Minnett retains forecasts at the lower end of guidance.

The company has highlighted that, in the face of increased competition, which the broker suggests includes Amazon, there is a need for more than just differentiation on price and range. The broker agrees with the company's summation but recognises the challenge, given the size of Australia and its distance from the rest of the world.

Accumulate rating and $11.50 target maintained.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $1.93
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.11, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Trading has softened in the 17 weeks to April 29 across the automotive and sports divisions, as a result of a subdued retail environment. While like-for-like trends across the group have slowed, all divisions are witnessing improvements in EBIT margins.

UBS flags increasing risks to the near-medium term outlook from slowing macro trends and an irrational marketplace.

Nevertheless, valuation does not appear overly demanding and the broker remains comfortable with a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $10.40 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $0.83
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.11, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes, after the annual investor briefing, that the company remains focused on its growth projects, existing operations and the balance sheet.

The broker also observes the company is being realistic about the pace of change in the US, although the US opportunity remains significant.

Equal-weight  rating, $11.45 target and Cautious industry view retained.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $12.38 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.80, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Morgans observes sales momentum continues to build but a weak share price reflects poor sentiment in the sector amid perceptions of stock overhang.

The broker suspects only a small amount of escrowed stock will be sold at current depressed levels.

The broker remains disappointed with the current share price and believes the company's operating performance and sales momentum will mean the share price recovers over the next six months.

The broker maintains an Add rating and $0.87 target.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.54
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 164% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources