Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AKE as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter perceives target Allkem's merger with Livent as a "sugar hit" for Allkem shareholders, the deal ratio implying a premium for Allkem's shareholders through a New York Stock Exchange listing as Newco in the near term (in which Allkem owns 56%) but not reflecting the company's longer term earnings profile and dominance in upstream markets.

In a nutshell: not bad for Allkem, great for Livent.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $19.20 from $19.89.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $14.85 Difference: $4.35
If AKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.20, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett was disappointed with the Ardent Leisure trading update for the second half. At the group level, the broker suspects this is likely to delay return to profit and now projects an EBITDA loss of -$1m in FY23.

At sector level, the broker muses about whether the update raises the prospect that pent-up demand, post the pandemic, for leisure activities is finally succumbing to a weakening economy.

Yet, Ord Minnett is cautious about being "alarmist" and still expects second half revenue for Ardent Leisure to increase 25%. Hold rating and $0.60 target maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.1
If ALG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Given the support of key shareholders, Citi believes Aristocrat Leisure's proposed acquistion of NeoGames will complete.

While NeoGames gives Aristocrat an end-to-end real money gaming (RMG) business, the broker suggests around $60m of synergies are required to support the acquisition multiple. It's felt these synergies are achievable.

The analyst reminds investors 1H results are due this Thursday. A solid result is forecast, driven by strength in the land segment offset by weakness in digital. The broker forecasts 1H EBIT of $910m.

Citi leaves its forecasts unchanged and maintains its $42.80 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $42.80 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $3.29
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure has made a $1.8bn cash offer to acquire NeoGames, providing a platform to scale within the global "real money gaming" segment. Macquarie expects the acquisition to complete in early 2024, but only sees modest accretion in FY25.

That said, there are significant revenue synergies and valuation is considered attractive on 20x FY23 P/E. The broker sees upside to forecasts within RMG and improved capital allocation.

Outperform retained, target rises to $44.50 from $43.00.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $4.99
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure intends to acquire NeoGames, which operates four main business divisions, for an enterprise value of $1.8bn. The deal is expected to be completed in FY24 with accretion in FY25.

The company envisages significant revenue opportunities through leveraging its regulatory and customer relationships  in tandem with the NeoGames technology and platform solutions.

Morgan Stanley observes the Aspire and Pariplay businesses are predominantly European in exposure, with North America the key market for expansion of the I-gaming and sports bettting offer.

The Overweight rating and $43 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $3.49
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

Morgans had been expecting a significant acquisition from Aristocrat Leisure in the rapidly-growing online real money gaming (RMG) industry before yesterday's acquistion announcement.

The company is seeking to acquire online RMG platform and technology provider NGMS for an enterprise value of -$1.8bn.

In the analyst's opinion, Aristocrat has some of the best iGaming content globally, and it will now be able to use NGMS’s platform to deploy that content, while also accelerating NGMS’s growth across its various verticals.

Morgans assumes the acquisition completes in the middle of FY24 and raises its target price to $46 from $43. Add.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $39.51 Difference: $6.49
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as No Rating (-1) -

Aristocrat Leisure will acquire NeoGames, which includes the iLottery business, AspireCore, which is a B2B PAM and managed services business, the Pariplay aggregation platform and BtoBet sports book and online betting.

Around 60% of revenue is from Europe and 28% from the Americas. The acquisition will be fully funded by existing cash. Acting as financial adviser on the transaction, UBS is currently restricted on providing a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $39.51. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $43.86, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AVH as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As the share price of Avita Medical has moved through the trigger level, Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $1.95
If AVH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 56.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades its rating for Charter Hall to Buy from Neutral on evidence of rebounding transaction activity for office assets. Also concerns have been dissipating on further downside to office values and further downside for FY24 consensus estimates.

These FY24 consensus estimates are likely to be supported by a further recovery in transaction activity and a rising CPI (20% of platform income CPI-linked), in the analyst's view.

Citi also sees upside to FY25 earnings on performance fees.

The target falls to $14.60 from $14.80.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $3
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.79, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Recent results from CSL peers are supportive of Citi's forecasts for a continued plasma collection recovery, declining donor fees and solid demand for immunoglobulin.

Also supportive of the broker's long-term demand growth for immunoglobulin and albumin are recent US FDA data on plasma collection centres. The roll out of new centres across the industry increased by 7% year-on-year as of the end of April.

The broker maintains its $350 target and Buy rating for CSL.

Target price is $350.00 Current Price is $307.81 Difference: $42.19
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $337.18, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -

Centaurus Metals has defined a new satellite nickel sulphide deposit at Jaguar called Twister offering what Macquarie describes as one of the better intersections.

Twister is located within 5km from proposed Jaguar infrastructure and if infill drilling is successful then there is potential for a maiden Resource.

Upcoming catalysts for Centaurus are ongoing drilling results and the Jaguar Feasibility Study and maiden Reserve expected in the December quarter. Outperform and $1.60 target retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.86
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Hold (3) -

Elder's FY23 interim result disappointed Bell Potter's forecasts by a decent clip. 

Revenue rose but earnings (EBIT) fell -38% as all divisions posted weaker performances, save for retail, and corporate charges outpaced.

Lease adjusted operating cash outflow blew out to -$108m from -$70.2 in the previous corresponding period. Acquisitions also took their toll on cash.

The broker suspects consensus forecasts may be leaning to the optimistic side, given the composition of the results, which made year on year comparisons challenging, but Bell Potter is not so sure.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $7.45 from $8.60.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $0.25
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Elders reported first half underlying profit of $51m, below Macquarie's $56m forecast. The company expects FY23 earnings to be $180-200m, with the midpoint -18% below FY22 but 14% above FY21 and -13% below the broker's prior forecast.

The first half saw a volatile agricultural backdrop impacted by softened livestock trading conditions, weaker crop input prices and unseasonably wet weather.

Operating cashflow was weak reflecting seasonal inventory build which is expected to unwind in the second half. The broker has changed analysts and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, warning of possible El Nino development and uncertainty over a new CEO.

Target falls to $7.77 from $14.35.

Target price is $7.77 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $0.57
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELD as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a weak 1H result for Elders which missed consensus expectations, as did FY23 earnings (EBIT) guidance, which was a -5% miss. As the interest rate expense is rising, the impact on the broker's profit forecasts is greater.

The earnings margin fell to 5.0% from 8.8% and the return on capital (ROC) declined to 16.9% from 27.8% in the previous corresponding period.

The analyst expects earnings will decline over FY23 and FY24 due to a reversion of seasonal drivers. Also, management uncertainty remains following the managing director resignation.

The target falls to $7.90 from $11.46. Hold.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $0.7
If ELD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ELD as Buy (1) -

First half underlying EBIT was down -37.7% and below Shaw and Partners' estimates. Elders has guided to full year EBIT in the range of $180-200m.

The broker notes conditions are currently challenging, albeit the outlook for the Australian winter crop remains positive and should help the company deliver on guidance.

FY23 and FY24 forecasts for earnings per share are revised down -17% and -14%, respectively. Buy rating maintained. Target is lowered to $12.00 from $14.60.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: $4.8
If ELD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Allianz is the fourth-largest insurer in Australia and has a very similar product mix to Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group, Macquarie notes, hence its March quarter result should provide a strong read-through.

Allianz Australia’s underlying gross written premium growth of 13.9% included 9.8% premium rate increases but despite a better than average natural catastrophe period, attritional margins continue to be under pressure, the broker warns.

As broader economic trends begin to slow, competition for new business is likely to increase acquisition costs and once again pressure market share for incumbents. Macquarie prefers Suncorp over IAG but retains Outperform on IAG with a $5.50 target.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.61
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IVC as Accumulate (2) -

TPG Global has increased its offer by 3% to $13 a share. The higher bid is not a surprise to Ord Minnett, which notes it also offers eligible investors the opportunity to realise the value of franking credits on the balance sheet.

To garner a binding proposal, InvoCare has provided exclusive due diligence. Ord Minnett still assesses the revised bid undervalues the stock on a stand-alone basis and TPG Capital appears to be exploiting share price weakness following the disappointing 2022 results.

Accumulate rating and $14.50 target price retained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $2.07
If IVC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.40, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IVC as No Rating (-1) -

InvoCare has received a revised proposal from TPG Capital Global. The offer has been revised to $13 cash per share, representing a $0.35 increase to the prior proposal.

The revised proposal also permits the company to pay a fully franked special dividend of $0.60 per share prior to the implementation of the transaction.

The board of InvoCare has decided to grant a five-week due diligence window on an exclusive basis. UBS is currently restricted on providing a rating or target.

Current Price is $12.43. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $12.40, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

James Hardie Industries released FY23 financials this morning and Citi, upon first glance, believes the performance is in line with forecasts accompanied by a slightly better than consensus FY24 guidance, supported by better margins.

One of the reasons to like what they see is because James Hardie might well have released the result that marks the end of a trend of downgrades, the analysts surmise.

In terms of regional performances, APAC and Europe delivered minor beats against a small miss in North America, according to Citi.

Buy. Target $34.60. No dividend payments are forecast for FY23 and FY24.

Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $33.99 Difference: $0.61
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.50, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MAF as Buy (1) -

At its AGM MA Financial has flagged strong gross inflows into its asset management portfolio, skewed to credit strategies.

The recent launch of the Marina Fund and the acquisition of Blue Elephant in the US offsets small upgrades to medium-term forecasts, UBS notes.

UBS decreases FY23 underlying net inflow forecasts to $1.1bn from $1.3bn and retains a Buy rating with a $6.60 target.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $1.72
If MAF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie expects the deal for Newcrest Mining shareholders to receive 0.4 Newmont shares and a $1.10 dividend will be completed and thus drops its target to $30 from $33 to roughly match the offer (which remains subject to Newmonth share price movement) and pulls back to Neutral from Outperform.

Newcrest anticipates a shareholder vote will be held in September or October 2023 with implementation of the scheme expected by the end of the year.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.68 Difference: $1.32
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.42, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

The board of Newcrest Mining has unanimously recommended the bid from Newmont Corp with the two companies now entering a binding scheme implementation deed.

Newwcrest shareholders will receive 0.40 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share held and will be permitted a franked special dividend of up to US$1.10 a share.

Morgan Stanley considers the deal will yield operating synergies around project sequencing and growth options while the combined entity will increase diversity of operations in low-risks jurisdictions.

The scheme remains subject to several conditions and, if all are satisfied, is expected to be implemented by the end of the year.

Equal-weight. Target is $27.50. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $28.68 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.42, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

As UBS suspected, a binding agreement has been reached with Newmont Corp to acquire Newcrest Mining shares for 0.40 Newmont shares plus $1.10 special dividend.

Following due diligence, Newmont believes it can reach $500m in cost synergies and possibly $2bn in cash flow enhancement. Newmont has stated the major reason for acquiring Newcrest is to shift its mix of assets to larger mines.

UBS has a $30.15 target for Newcrest and Neutral rating.

Target price is $30.15 Current Price is $28.68 Difference: $1.47
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.42, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett slightly reduces estimates for FY23-25 earnings, noting the March quarter result was softer than expected. Still, Northern Star Resources remains the pick among large gold stocks when considering growth, balance sheet, capital management and valuation.

The KCGM mill optimisation, due by the end of the year, is considered a key catalyst. Ord Minnett retains a target of $14.20 but reduces the rating to Accumulate from Buy.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.97 Difference: $0.23
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.28, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PBH as Speculative Buy (1) -

PointsBet has signed a binding agreement with Fanatics Betting and Gaming for the sale of its US business for US$150m, subject to shareholder approval and other conditions.

The company now believes the remaining Australian and Canadian businesses will hit earnings (EBITDA) breakeven when the sale of the US business is finalised in early FY24, and will distribute the net proceeds of the sale to shareholders (about $1.07 to $1.10 a share).

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price moves to $2 from $2.90 to reflect the impact of the sale on valuation.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.545
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners has purchased two new businesses, one in metro Sydney and the other in New Zealand for -$41m.

The acquisition is the second this year and Bell Potter estimates it will take the company's Sydney market share to roughly 4%.

The broker observes the acquisition comes with a cremation facility, which it expects could drive margin growth.

Bell Potter expects the deal to become incremental to earnings in the September quarter.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises 4% to $5.90 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $1.49
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

Pact Group has lowered FY23 earnings guidance to -5% at the midpoint below Macquarie's forecast.

Pact had noted at its first half result that the demand outlook was uncertain, and tightening economic conditions, softer demand in Asia and severe weather across NZ are cited as the reasons for the downgrade.

The broker cuts its target to 94c from $1.26 ro reflect earnings downgrades and caution on gearing/interest cover. Earnings weakness and elevated balance sheet metrics continue to weigh negatively.

Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.115
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Morgans suggests the valuation for Australia’s fourth largest Australian met coal producer, Stanmore Resources, is far too cheap. It's thought the current share price represents a buying opportunity.

The analyst believes the low valuation is due to a discount for acquisition risk (Daunia) and macroeconomic risks affecting steel/hard coking coal market sentiment.

Morgans feels Stanmore will likely bid assertively for BHP group's ((BHP)) Daunia coal mine.

The Add rating is maintained and the target falls to $4.75 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $1.74
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SOP as Buy (1) -

Synertec has completed an $8bn capital raising to advance its Powerhouse opportunity. Revenue in the March quarter was up 20%.

Discussions are now underway for large-scale commercial Powerhouse to be rolled out to more Santos ((STO)) sites, and Shaw and Partners currently estimates three units by the end of the year and 17 by the end of 2024.

The broker upgrades estimated revenue in FY23 by 8% and retains a Buy rating with a $0.42 target.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.185
If SOP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter revisits Strike Energy as the company shifts its focus back to upstream gas developments.

The broker believes Strike Energy is sitting pretty heading into FY24, observing the tightening WA gas market, drilling to update contingent resources, and first gas production at Walyering.

The broker believes Hancock Prospecting's contested acquisition is indicative of the value of the Perth Basin's gas reserves.

Bell Potter observes Strike Energy owns the largest Reserve plus Contingent Resource in the basin. FY24 EPS forecasts rise sharply.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 58c from 51c.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.15
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Allianz is the fourth-largest insurer in Australia and has a very similar product mix to Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group, Macquarie notes, hence its March quarter result should provide a strong read-through.

Allianz Australia’s underlying gross written premium growth of 13.9% included 9.8% premium rate increases but despite a better than average natural catastrophe period, attritional margins continue to be under pressure, the broker warns.

As broader economic trends begin to slow, competition for new business is likely to increase acquisition costs and once again pressure market share for incumbents. Macquarie prefers Suncorp over IAG and retains Outperform and a $16.30 target.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $4.02
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.59, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley questions whether the market is under-estimating the displacement of legacy telco revenue by cloud-based software.

The broker suspects technology and software advances are driving revenue and margin leakage for the large/integrated Australian telcos. Yet, this is a relatively small part of the earnings/valuation of Telstra Group and Morgan Stanley retains the stock as a top pick.

Overweight rating, $4.75 target and In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.4
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

Telstra will increase its mobile and data plans in line with the CPI, representing an average 7% increase. This is slightly higher than UBS expected. The broker raises FY24-26 estimates for EBITDA by an average of 2.5%.

UBS is more subdued about price growth assumptions beyond FY24 for mobiles, and is cautious about the stickiness with consumers over the longer term, given increased competition from the MVNO market. Neutral maintained. Target rises to $4.60 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.25
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley questions whether the market is under-estimating the displacement of legacy telco revenue by cloud-based software.

The broker suspects a shift in wallet share is occurring towards software vendors from large telcos, especially in fixed-line enterprise products, and as a result envisages earnings headwinds for TPG Telecom.

The broker makes reductions to EBITDA estimates of -2-7% for 2023-24. Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight and the target lowered to $5.60 from $7.70.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Sales for Treasury Wine Estates in the US retail channel declined by -7% in the four weeks ending 22 April, compared to stable sales for the industry, observes Citi.

The broker suggests the US retail channel appears subdued, broadly consistent with read-throughs from Treasury's peers. It's thought on-premise channels may also be seeing weaker consumer demand.

Citi remains Neutral-rated with a $14.25 target.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $13.29 Difference: $0.96
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TYR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Tyro Payments has upgraded FY23 guidance for the third time, with each upgrade derived from a different source (costs, volumes, margin/pricing), Macquarie notes. FY23 earnings guidance is up 8% compared to the latest update and materially above initial guidance.

Increased pricing increases churn risk, the broker warns, however the competitive environment has likely eased more recently with less funding for start-ups looking to take share.

Upgrades demonstrate evidence of Tyro effectively controlling the controllables, which gives Macquarie more confidence on the ability to manage a weaker consumer demand environment. Upgrade to Outperform, target rises to $1.80 from $1.65.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.29
If TYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 32.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has reviewed estimates for Woodside Energy's 82%-owned Sangomar oil project in Senegal following a visit to Keppel’s Tuas yard and tour of the floating production, storage & offloading facility.

Given Senegal’s materiality to Woodside, the broker was pleased to see the FPSO near completion and getting set to sail. The lack of achieving a selldown has been fortuitous, and Macquarie now sees less reason for Woodside to pursue this until the field has matured in 3-5 years time.

Target rises to $34 from $32, Neutral retained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $33.92 Difference: $0.08
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.68, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources