Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Following an analysis of infant formula port data from Christchurch to China, Citi notes the weakness in later-stage formulas seen in 2H25 may be easing as the "dragon baby" cohort progresses.

The data are seen as a proxy for the China label with possible implications for a2 Milk Co.

The data showed July-August exports grew 12% y/y, rebounding from a -28% fall in 2H25, as a 40% rise in July offset the -17% fall in August.

The highlight was a fall in August airfreight volumes to the lowest since Feb-25, implying supply chain pressures are normalising and reducing reliance on higher-cost freight.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.29.

Target price is $9.29 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $0.78
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.46, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

GWSCF and GWOF are both unlisted wholesale property funds managed by GPT Group.

Macquarie reviewed the ASIC lodged accounts and constitution for both which provided details of the GWSCF revised fee structure and liquidity terms.

GWSCF adopts a tiered fee structure from January 2025 and plans to raise up to $500m equity, creating around $620m acquisition capacity at 30% gearing, highlights the broker.

The analyst warns GWOF’s modernised terms risk GPT Group's earnings via lower fees and reduced gross asset value (GAV) from asset sales, assuming a -37.5bps fee cut from December 2026, and 30% GAV redemptions.

Macquarie cuts its target price to $5.67 from $5.77 on lower assumed funds multiples and retains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $5.67 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: $0.28
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.67, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFT as Buy (1) -

Citi maintains a positive view on Infratil following the 2025 Investor Day, adding a 90-day upside view on expectations of a contract announcement for CDC data centres in the near term.

In the broker's view, this contract will aid the company's reiterated commitment at the Investor Day to double EBITDA by 2027. However, some softness is expected in FY26, with EBITDA seen at the lower end of guidance due to contracting delays and transition to liquid cooling. 

The compay upgraded its pipeline to 10GW by 2028 from 8.5GW, and highlighted a 250GW opportunity in Asia for Gurin, representing a significant long-term growth option. 

The broker also notes the strategic review of QScan and Morrison’s emphasis on future business research points to a healthy new business pipeline.

Buy. Target unchanged at NZ$14.10.

Current Price is $11.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IFT as Buy (1) -

At Infratil’s investor day, UBS highlighted robust CDC demand with over 1000MW of confirmed orders and a pipeline lift to 2.6GW, including a 200MW Perth expansion.

CDC re-iterated EBITDA guidance to double to AU$330m by FY27, with FY26 guidance at AU$390m-$410m.

One NZ is targeting ROIC improvement through cost cuts and lower capex, while Infratil aims to lift market cap to NZ$20bn from NZ$12bn via around -NZ$1bn in asset sales, including Retire Australia (-NZ$330m) and a review of Oscan.

Growth is expected from CDC, One NZ, Long Road, and Vanda renewables, plus new sectors such as transport, logistics, automation, and financial systems.

UBS maintains a Buy rating, target NZ$13.75.

Current Price is $11.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

The analyst at Citi updates the financial model for James Hardie Industries to incorporate the Azek acquisition and new reporting segments.

Sales for Siding and Trim in FY26 are modeled at $2.68bn with a 31% margin, reflecting a tougher environment in the South of the US and higher-margin trim sales compared with decking.

The broker assumes the upper end of guidance for Decking with around $797m sales, as conditions in the North East are expected to be stronger.

Citi cuts its FY26-FY28 earnings forecasts by an average -19%, noting headwinds despite some favourable regional trends. The target price falls to $33 from $35. Neutral rating kept.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.86 Difference: $4.14
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.55, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Lunnon Metals signed an Ore Purchase Agreement with Gold Fields to treat Lady Herial ore through the St Ives gold plant.

The highlight was identified as the 70/30 free cash flow split in the company's favour, which was ahead of Shaw and Partners' 60% assumption.

The broker forecasts $65m revenue in FY26 at a gold price of US$4,000/oz. Cost forecast was cut to $2,300/oz from $2,400 and $2,100 in the scoping study.

Free cash flow forecast rises to $45m from $36m. Buy, High Risk. Target lifted to 80c from 75c. 

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.45
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the health minister’s 2026 premium round expectations emphasised consumer value, hospital support, and fairness, with a focus on sustainable pricing and use of past gains.

According to the broker, Medibank Private is better placed to sustain margins, given it has already been paying out more to Australian residential customers.

Between FY20-25, the insurer gave back -$1.7bn, and its support was around 4% of resident premiums across FY20-25 vs 1.5% at nib Holdings.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $5.55. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.66
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights media reports Macquarie Group explored potential M&A as underscoring the group’s limited diversification in private markets and its relative lag to peers in private credit. However, on this occasion, discussions appear to have stalled.

The broker notes returns in the largest Commodities and Global Markets divisions are compressing, and while Banking And Financial Services unit is performing well, it is a smaller proportion of group earnings.

There are early signs of recovery in capital markets but the broker reckons the company needs a new source of growth to drive the next phase of share price appreciation.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $200.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $222.56 Difference: minus $22.56 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $221.77, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS reaffirms Newmont Corp as its preferred large-cap ASX gold miner, lifting its target price to $140 from $110 on expectations gold will reach $6,000/oz (AUD) by mid-2026.

The broker remains bullish, forecasting US$3,900/oz gold, around 20% above consensus, supporting higher earnings forecasts. Gold is viewed as a strategic hedge against geopolitical and macro risks.

UBS lifts EPS estimates by 6% for 2025 and 25% for 2026. Following 1H25 results, Newmont reported strong production, reduced net debt well below target, divested non-core assets, and authorised a further US$3bn buyback.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $119.21 Difference: $20.79
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $121.00, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes the health minister’s 2026 premium round expectations emphasised consumer value, hospital support, and fairness, with a focus on sustainable pricing and use of past gains.

According to the broker, Medibank Private is better placed to sustain margins compared with nib Holdings, given it has already been paying out more to Australian residential customers.

Between FY20-25, Medibank Private gave back $1.7bn, and its support was around 4% of resident premiums across FY20-25 vs 1.5% at NIB Holdings.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $7.85. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.62 Difference: $0.23
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Upgrade to Buy, High Risk from Hold (1) -

Peninsula Energy achieved first U308 production at the Lance Project and conducted a successful $70m equity raise.

Shaw and Partners believes the project is positioned to become the largest source of domestic uranium in the US and thus a highly strategic asset for nuclear fuel security.

The broker revised forecasts to factor in a production profile that increases sequentially but at the low end of the company's guidance to 2030. 

Contract book forecasts were updated to incorporate expectations of a higher achieved price of around US$80/lb linked to the spot price. The net result, including the share dilution, was a higher target price of $1.33 from $1.00.

Rating upgraded to Buy, High Risk from Hold. 

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.93
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

UBS previews Premier Investments' FY25 results (September 25), expecting EBIT down -21.4% and NPAT down -17.2% on sales of $807m versus consensus' $808m.

Peter Alexander continues to perform well across merchandising, range, in-store and online, with improved brand perception supporting store expansion and refurbishment.

UBS maintains a Buy rating, citing the strength of the core A&NZ Peter Alexander business and the Breville Group ((BRG)) valuation not fully reflected.

The current set-up is considered an attractive risk/reward proposition, despite UK start-up losses for Peter Alexander and Smiggle headwinds from cost-of-living pressures.

Buy, target $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.50 Difference: $2.5
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STG as Hold (3) -

Management at Straker has issued FY26 guidance of $38-41m revenue, below Ord Minnett's $46m forecast, though adjusted earnings (EBITDA) are expected to remain positive.

The downgrade represents the third year of declining revenue, highlight the analysts, reflecting volatility in the translation industry as AI solutions delay customer purchase decisions.

Straker is investing in R&D while transitioning to a solutions-based AI model, explains the broker, with cash flow and earnings remaining positive despite headwinds.

IBM, the company's largest customer at around 35-40% of revenue, has a contract due for renewal by end-2025, representing a key risk, suggests Ord Minnett.

The broker cuts its target price by -26% to 38c and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.06
If STG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Web Travel's softer AGM update prompts Citi to analyse risks of further revenue margin weakness. The broker reconciles the company’s take rate to peers after adjusting for product mix and structural differences.

The analysts suggest faster growth in lower-margin geographies may weigh on performance and concludes pricing plays a smaller role in market share gains than it first appears.

The broker lowers its target price to $5.50 from $6.60 and maintains a Buy/High Risk rating.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $1.38
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero should benefit from AI-driven trends highlighted at Intuit’s investor day, Citi notes. Intuit emphasised agentic AI for growth and the broker sees scope for Xero to lift average revenue per user (ARPU) through stronger mix, pricing, and add-ons.

The analysts point out Xero’s open ecosystem may constrain embedding agentic capabilities, though this can be offset by deeper partnerships and supported by the Melio acquisition.

The Just-Ask-Xero (JAX) shift to an agentic solution, with automatic bank reconciliation, is expected to drive ARPU growth from FY27.

Citi highlights Xero’s 10% subscriber growth in FY25 versus 5% for QuickBooks, with stronger momentum across North America and international markets.

Buy rating. Target $210.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $162.59 Difference: $47.41
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $213.17, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources