Australian Broker Call
November 20, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 10:32 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
STO - | SANTOS | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
Citi rates DHG as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -
Citi has a positive view on the earnings trajectory of Domain but considers the current valuation excessive.
The business is counter cyclical to the property market and rapid sales were a significant headwind, particularly in FY17.
The broker initiates with a Sell rating and $3.40 target.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates FXJ as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse adjusts forecasts to reflect the separation of Domain ((DHG)). The broker believes the company is well-positioned to participate in any sector consolidation following recent changes to media ownership regulations.
Nevertheless, there is limited visibility about how this might play out in the value that may be created from mergers. Neutral rating. Target reduced to 71c from $1.06.
Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0
If FXJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 4.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of -8.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 4.62 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.8, implying annual growth of 1.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MYO as Buy (1) -
The investor briefing provided a better understanding of the growth drivers, in Citi's view. The acquisition of the Reckon ((RKN)) accountant software business is no surprise given the history between the two companies.
Management has indicated a large portion of the earnings from the acquisition will be re-invested into incremental sales and marketing.
Buy retained and price target raised to $4.55 from $4.45.
Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.88
If MYO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.90 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MYO as Buy (1) -
The company has re-affirmed full year guidance for 13-15% revenue growth and operating earnings margins of 45-46%.
The company has also emphasised the growth potential from the payments and enterprise businesses and the importance of accountant referrals for the SME solutions business.
Buy and $4.40 target retained.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.73
If MYO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MYO as Neutral (3) -
The company has reiterated guidance for revenue growth in the 13-15% range and operating earnings margins in the 45-46% range.
The broker pulls back the execution of the buyback in its forecasts, believing it prudent to exercise restraint on this initiative given the projected level of gearing. Neutral maintained. Target is $3.99.
Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.32
If MYO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NBL as Add (1) -
Noni B provided a positive trading update at its AGM for the first four months of FY18. Overall sales grew 2%, online sales grew 84% and 18 new stores were opened. And a buyback was announced.
The broker notes earnings are tracking ahead of guidance and given cost-outs, this implies margins have improved. However Noni's FY performance is heavily reliant on both Christmas and Mother's Day trading, so its too early to become overly confident.
Target rises to $2.40 from $2.39, Add retained.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.33
If NBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NXT as Buy (1) -
Major cloud users indicate continued momentum for data creation and storage requirements. This confirms UBS' belief that the stock should be a core holding in any small cap fund.
The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $6.30 from $5.15.
Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.85
If NXT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of -53.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 139.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of 117.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.1. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) -
The company has provided FY18 guidance for 14,000t of lithium carbonate from Olaroz. UBS suspects guidance is conservative.
The first quarter was broadly in line with expectations, albeit weak, and costs were slightly ahead. UBS expects the market to remain tight until at least 2020, amid growing demand for battery and energy storage applications.
Buy rating retained. Target rises to $7.00 from $5.70.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $1.2
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 654.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 54.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley has reviewed the Cooper Basin and GLNG operations. The approach by Harbour Energy is expected to be the driver of investor focus in the near-term.
Still, the broker believes the company is delivering and conviction regarding a drilling-focused and cost-reduction turnaround has increased. Moreover, there is potential for material upside to the company's assets over several years should oil prices creep higher.
Overweight rating retained. Target is $5.20. Industry View: In Line.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $0.19
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.55 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates STO as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
UBS factors in a rally in oil prices and the realistic probability of a takeover emerging for Santos. This comes amid speculation that US-based firm Harbour Energy is planning to make a bid for the company at $5.30 a share.
The broker suspects the probability of a corporate approach is high and any potential acquirer may have a more optimistic view around the portfolio and a more positive view of future oil prices. The broker considers the risk of underperformance in the stock in the near-term has been lowered.
Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target rises to $5.10 from $4.05.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $0.09
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 28.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TAH as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank considers the authorisation of the proposed merger with Tatts ((TTS)), subject to the divestment of Odyssey, to be a positive.
The Australian Competition Tribunal stated that the transaction is likely to result in substantial public benefits and detriments are unlikely to arise, or are not otherwise material. The ACCC will consider these reasons, but acknowledged it has achieved its objective of clarifying the law.
Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating and $5.20 target.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.22
If TAH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of 17.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates VCX as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett has undertaken a review of the stock following the recent asset swap and quarterly result. The broker remains slightly ahead of guidance, expecting funds from operations of 18.3c per security because of the benefit of the accretive buyback.
The retail backdrop is challenging, Ord Minnett assesses, with a subdued consumer and soft sales growth. However, transaction markets remain strong with strong prices likely to be paid for a 50% share in the Indooroopilly shopping centre.
Accumulate rating. Target is raised to $3.15 from $3.10.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.42
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WES as Sell (5) -
The AGM update has indicated operating losses from the UK home improvements business are expected to worsen in FY18 as trading remains challenging for Homebase.
Deutsche Bank is not particularly surprised by this, following a weak first quarter sales performance. The broker always believed the entry into the UK came at significant risk, although the performance has been worse than expected.
Sell rating and $38 target retained.
Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $42.30 Difference: minus $4.3 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.08, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.2, implying annual growth of -0.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 235.00 cents and EPS of 268.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.9, implying annual growth of 4.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 228.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
DHG | DOMAIN HOLDINGS | Initiation of coverage with Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $3.68 |
FXJ | FAIRFAX MEDIA | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.71 |
MYO | MYOB | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.67 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.67 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.67 | ||
NBL | NONI B | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.07 |
NXT | NEXTDC | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.45 |
ORE | OROCOBRE | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.80 |
STO | SANTOS | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.01 |
Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $5.01 | ||
TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.98 |
VCX | VICINITY CENTRES | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.73 |
WES | WESFARMERS | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $42.30 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 7 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 3 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Monday 20 November 2017
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