Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALD as No Rating (-1) -

Ampol faces a stronger refining backdrop, with UBS highlighting the escalating Middle East conflict is driving higher regional fuel and refining margins.

The broker notes attacks on key infrastructure and export limits across North Asia are tightening supply, lifting gasoline, diesel and jet fuel crack spreads to record levels.

The analyst notes an improved earnings outlook, reflecting materially higher Australian refining margin assumptions and upgraded refining earnings forecasts.

UBS has a research restriction on Ampol. No forecasts, rating or target price.

Current Price is $32.97. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.

The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.

Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.

In this environment the broker favours those companies that can deliver above free cash flow expectations in the short term such as Alkane Resources. Buy rating and $2.10 target.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.655
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the exploration "up cycle" is gaining momentum and mining budgets are trending positively.

In November, ALS Ltd upgraded revenue growth guidance to 12-14% with volumes up double digits and pricing in the second half shifting to a tailwind.

The broker suspects a short North American winter shutdown should mean this guidance is exceeded. Growth rates are expected to be largely driven by the majors with the 2026 exploration budgets Macquarie tracks lifting around 31% on average.

Outperform. Target is raised to $23.50 from $22.85.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.44 Difference: $3.06
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.70, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Buy (1) -

The final recommendations from the Reserve Bank's retail payments review will be released shortly with Ord Minnett noting international experience suggests there may be "walk backs" from the July 2025 recommendations.

Cuscal is one of the broker's preferred defensive stocks in the current volatile environment, with low AI disruption, energy costs and economic growth sensitivity risks.

The business has a positive leverage to higher interest rates through its corporate cash holding of around $230m. The broker models no further rate increases into its forward estimates, providing upside risks should this be incorrect. Buy rating and $5.13 target.

Target price is $5.13 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $1.32
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

EBR Systems reported an EBITDA loss that was largely in line with Bell Potter's estimates for the 2025 year. Gross margins are expected to decline in 2026 to reflect current inventory costs before rising again in 2027.

Reflecting on training and hospital administration concerns, the broker adjusts estimates, reducing unit volume forecasts by -32.8% and -37.5% for 2026 and 2027, respectively.

Operating expenditure assumptions are also increased given the rate of commercial activity. Buy. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.43.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $1.3
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.

The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.

Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.

Given the pullback, the broker upgrades Evolution Mining to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $13.10 and unchanged.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $12.21 Difference: $0.89
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMD as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.

The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.

Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.

Given the pullback, the broker upgrades Genesis Minerals to Buy from Accumulate. Target is steady at $8.15.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $2.64
If GMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.69, suggesting upside of 72.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ITS as Buy (1) -

Infotrust has acquired Catalyst Cyber, a Canberra based cyber security consultancy, for -$5m comprising cash and shares.

The acquisition is expected to contribute around $1.3m in revenue and $300,000 in underlying EBITDA in the second half.

Bell Potter updates forecasts to include the acquisition, with the net result being a modest increase in its target to $0.62 from $0.60.

The broker expects the company will make further acquisitions in the cyber security sector given the strengthened balance sheet following the sale of the cloud and communications business.

Future acquisitions are also expected to be earnings accretive. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.19
If ITS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths has reported first production of samarium oxide from its Malaysian refinery. Ord Minnett notes the output has been built into forecasts and has strategic purposes rather than a revenue impact, with Lynas being the premier Western producer.

Western producers have not previously been interested in this product and as a result China was left as a sole producer. Now samarium is in the rare earth group where China has restricted exports. The key use is in samarium cobalt magnets, critical for the guidance system of interceptor missiles.

Ord Minnett considers the company's earnings are stretched at current prices with stronger upside in some junior stocks. Sell rating and $14 target maintained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $19.97 Difference: minus $5.97 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.23, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Accumulate (2) -

Northern Star Resources has downgraded FY26 guidance, again, given persistent milling issues at KCGM and productivity problems, specifically at Jundee.

The former issue should rectify once the new mill is up and running, with commissioning expected in the first quarter of FY27, while at Jundee there is a strategic review due in the second half of FY26.

Ord Minnett suggests subdued multiples will be the go during this time, which may present an opportunity for longer-term value-oriented investors.

Production guidance for FY26 has been downgraded by -9%. The broker decreases FY26 earnings estimates by -19% and the target is lowered to $23.70 from $29.70. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $18.96 Difference: $4.74
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.20, suggesting upside of 52.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners delivered revenue in the first half that missed Bell Potter's expectations although cost control meant EBITDA margins were largely level with the prior corresponding half. No guidance was provided for FY26.

The broker is optimistic about both the underlying business and the opportunity for acquisitions, with the latter driving overall revenue growth above mid-single digits.

In the underlying business relatively less challenging comparables are expected in the second half, with the demographic tailwinds from an ageing baby boomer population to be "sizeable catalysts" from 2026 onwards.

Buy rating. Target is reduced to $5.00 from $5.90.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.86
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 37.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Today's interim results release by Premier Investments met Citi's expectations. Retail earnings (EBIT) of $119m were in line with guidance amid a sales slowdown, the analysts note.

Weaker sales growth was evident across Peter Alexander and Smiggle compared to H2 of FY25, partly due to store closures, notes the broker in an early assessment. Margins and cost control were slightly better than forecast.

Citi highlights Smiggle’s reset strategy and leadership update with a new Managing Director appointed. A transition period is expected to weigh on margins despite stable FY26 guidance.

Management guided to FY26 Underlying Retail earnings (pre-AASB 16) of $183m, aligning with estimates by Citi and consensus.

Neutral rating. Target of $16.70.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $12.52 Difference: $4.18
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.23, suggesting upside of 68.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

It is UBS' assessment Premier Investments' H1 result is slightly below guidance (underlying), while FY26 guidance is in line with market consensus.

Reported net profit was helped by a lower tax rate while one-off costs weighed on the underlying outcome, the initial response explains.

Group sales were lower than forecasts by the broker and consensus, and so were LFL sales. Peter Alexander sales came out below UBS' estimate with Smiggle's in line.

The company did emphasise Peter Alexander sales for the first seven weeks are running at a higher pace. A strategic reset is on the cards for Smiggle.

Buy. Target $18.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.52 Difference: $5.48
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.23, suggesting upside of 68.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

By July, management at REA Group is introducing to Premiere Plus native video capability within the “Latest Videos” section of both the app and website.

Citi believes the group's growth outlook is supported by product innovation, noting video integration and pricing are key drivers of engagement and revenue.

Next year's proposed price increase of 8-10% exceeds the analysts' 7% forecast, helping offset softer listing volumes and supporting yield growth.

Strategic upside is anticipated via native video hosting and a new video hub to lift user engagement and defend market position.

Buy rating. Target $199.

Target price is $199.00 Current Price is $158.68 Difference: $40.32
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $224.84, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SGLLV as Buy (1) -

Ricegrowers expects growth in FY26 net profit with revenue in line or marginally below FY25 levels. The latter reflects the effect of lower global rice prices and a stronger Australian dollar as well as supply chain disruption in the Middle East.

Bell Potter assumes the NSW crop will be broadly consistent with the ABARES March 2026 crop report forecast of 173,000 tonnes. FY28 forecasts assume a bounce back in the crop to 500,000t.

The broker highlights two consecutive poor cropping outcomes and the rising risk of dry conditions through the second half of 2026 and reduces net profit estimates to take into account these factors as well as higher base interest rates.

Target is reduced to $17.00 from $18.75. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $12.22 Difference: $4.78
If SGLLV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi lowers its target for Sonic Healthcare to $21.50 from $22.00 after adjusting for exchange rate movements. The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell given a more balanced risk/reward scenario, in the broker's view.

While Australian pathology volumes in January appear slightly lower year-on-year, Sonic outperformed the broader market in 1H26, the analyst highlights.

Ongoing concerns around US operations and persistent group cost pressures are noted with further downside risks not ruled out.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $20.56 Difference: $0.94
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Strike Energy has updated reserves across the West Erregulla and Erregulla Deep projects. At the former 2P reserves have increased 20% to 251PJ. At Erregulla Deep an initial 2C contingent resource of 38 PJ and 2U prospective resource of 117PJ have been booked.

Bell Potter notes the company is leveraged to the Western Australian energy market where electricity and gas prices are expected to remain supportive.

Walyering will provide supplementary cash flow while the South Erregulla peaking gas power project is being developed. Speculative Buy rating and $0.15 target unchanged.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.051
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.14, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades Treasury Wine Estates to Hold from Lighten, having reviewed its modelling.

This resulted from increased debt assumptions as the company deals with tight grape supply in both the US and Australia. Management has signalled the contracts are relatively inflexible.

The broker expects inventory will increase again in FY27 before scaling down in following years. This assessment drives increases in financial debt assumptions over the next three fiscal years.

Ord Minnett acknowledges the business is some distance from breaching banking covenants, as operating earnings would have to fall a further -27% in FY26 to instigate a covenant breach, considered unlikely. Target is $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.77
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 32.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.

The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.

Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.

In this environment the broker favours those companies that can deliver above free cash flow expectations in the short term such as Vault Minerals. Buy rating and $7.40 target.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $3.27
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 95.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy faces a stronger refining backdrop, with UBS highlighting the escalating Middle East conflict is driving higher regional fuel and refining margins.

The broker notes attacks on key infrastructure and export limits across North Asia are tightening supply, lifting gasoline, diesel and jet fuel crack spreads to record levels.

The analyst notes an improved earnings outlook, reflecting materially higher Australian refining margin assumptions and upgraded refining earnings forecasts.

Estimates for 2026 EPS are increased by 163% and 2027 EPS by 53% on stronger refining margins.

Refining strength is expected to outweigh weaker Convenience and Mobility trends, with some pressure from lower volumes and consumer response to higher fuel prices.

UBS increases its target price to $2.70 from $2.40 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.27
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley suspects there will be a shortfall in what investors would like to know about project Unite and what Westpac will divulge at the scheduled market update on March 26.

The broker assesses a technology project costing -$3bn, spanning five years and involving 59 initiatives covering three different divisions has significant execution risk.

Execution of Unite will not ensure the bank achieved its CTI and ROTE targets, which require other productivity initiatives and better franchise performance, Morgan Stanley adds.

After the recent update on first quarter earnings, the broker does not believe the results and outlook were positive enough to warrant the current trading multiples, retaining an Underweight rating.

Target is $35.70. Industry view is In-line.

Target price is $35.70 Current Price is $41.13 Difference: minus $5.43 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.97, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WGX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes gold equities are down -31% since the Middle East conflict began, having underperformed the US dollar gold price by -20%.

The broker suggests this reflects the broader equity sell-off and profit-taking but performance has also been affected by company specific factors and margin concerns.

Investors need to be selective and focus their holdings on companies that have valuation appeal, strong fundamentals and near-term cash flow, Ord Minnett advises.

In this environment the broker favours those companies that can deliver above free cash flow expectations in the short term such as Westgold Resources. Buy rating and $8.75 target.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $5.38 Difference: $3.37
If WGX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.50, suggesting upside of 79.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XYZ as Buy (1) -

Block’s growth outlook is on the improve, suggests Citi. It's thought GenAI initiatives are driving potential gross profit upside and stronger product velocity.

AI-led tools including Cash App Green, Moneybot and Managerbot have the potential to lift inflows, monetisation and seller engagement across Cash App and Square, suggests the broker.

Upside share price potential is noted via gross profit growth exceeding consensus forecasts by around 180bps in 2026 and over 400bps in 2027-28.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of US$85.

Current Price is $81.84. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $105.00, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources