Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Life360's global paying circle growth of 118k in the Sep Q exceeded Bell Potter's forecast of 101k and was the second strongest quarter ever for growth, although average revenue fell a little short on a mix to lower revenue international paying circles.

Management has retained FY revenue growth guidance but increased earnings. Operating cash flow guidance is reduced but that relates solely to a timing difference on the expected receipt of a payment.

The next likely potential catalyst is the full year result in early March in which the broker expect the guidance to be met if not exceeded. Buy retained, target rises to $11.25 from $11.00.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $2.37
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Life360's revenue in the 3Q of US$78.6m beat the US$75.4m forecast by Morgan Stanley, while adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of US$5.5m exceeded the US$3.2m expected.

FY23 revenue guidance increased to US$300-310m from US$300-305m, while core subscription revenue growth of more than 50% was unchanged. Earnings guidance also rose to US$12-16m from US$9-14m.

The broker highlights positives including strong annualised monthly revenue (AMR) and growth for US average revenue per paying circle (ARPPC). Concerns included a gross margin decline.

The minor changes to guidance result in the broker maintaining an $11.50 target. Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $2.62
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

As reported in yesterday's Report, Aristocrat Leisure's FY23 result slightly "missed" Citi's forecasts.

The operational performance proved better-than-expected but management has stepped up its investment in design & development (D&D), which is a short-term negative.

The broker is of the view the payoff in digital appears more uncertain with a lack of new hit titles released in recent years.

The final dividend declared of 34c also missed the 38c forecast by the broker.

Target lifts to $44.70 on higher peer multiples (up from $42.80). Buy rating retained with the broker stating its core investment premise remains unchanged.

Citi is positive on the outlook for Social Casino, where Aristocrat continues expanding its market share, but more circumspect about Social Casual.

Target price is $44.70 Current Price is $39.48 Difference: $5.22
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure has reported full year net profits of $1,327m, up 21% year-on-year and on par with Macquarie's expectations. Consistent with company guidance, the broker is anticipating 5% constant currency net profit growth over FY24. 

The broker feels earnings upgrade potential is promising, particularly given forecasts are yet to include revenue synergies from the NeoGames transaction. Macquarie finds Aristocrat Leisure well placed to deliver above its three year 8% compound annual growth rate expectation. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $48.50 are retained.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $39.48 Difference: $9.02
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

While Aristocrat Leisure's FY23 results were in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, the broker expects higher spending on design and development (D&D) will weigh on the share price in the near-term.

Earnings growth of 13.5% year-on-year was driven by the Americas with outright sales revenue and gaming operations jumping by 40% and 8%, respectively.

The broker's Overweight rating is kept based on strength for land-based operations and i-gaming options. It's felt the digital offering is more diversified than peers.The $43 target is unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $39.48 Difference: $3.52
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

While the pace of sales growth for Aristocrat Leisure moderated in FY23, after a standout FY22 performance, constant currency sales were still better than Morgans anticipated.

The sales outperformance was driven by growth in North American Gaming and global Outright Sales, explains the broker.

The analysts anticipate a moderation in FY24 from the FY23 sales level as trading conditions normalise in the wake of the post-lockdown heightened demand for land-based gaming. It's felt the worst is over for Pixel United and growth should turn positive in FY25.

The target falls to $45 from $46. Add.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $39.48 Difference: $5.52
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Aristocrat Leisure's FY23 performance beat Ord Minnett's forecasts and thus the fair value calculation has shifted to $45 from $43 previously.

Commentary blames the broker underestimating the interest income on the company's net cash position. The momentum shift in favour of digital gaming over land-based gaming machines during covid is now reversing, the analyst points out.

Aristocrat is expected to continue grabbing market share in electronic gaming. More investing in design and development has triggered miniscule reductions to forecasts. Accumulate (which implies an upgrade from September).

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $39.48 Difference: $5.52
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as No Rating (-1) -

UBS remains under research restrictions and offers no target price or rating. The broker highlights how much Aristocrat Leisure has been ramping up its investments, currently significantly out-spending its rivals in the industry.

The broker sees more efficiency on the horizon. It is UBS's view Aristocrat Leisure is investing heavily in order to grab more market share in the USA.

Forecasts have been lifted.

Current Price is $39.48. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $45.24, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Upgrade to Lighten from Sell (4) -

Ord Minnett had downgraded ALS Ltd's rating to Sell from Lighten in early October, expecting a slowing in its commodities business in FY24, which constitutes the majority of earnings.

Yesterday's interim release proved a positive surprise and we note the broker's rating has shifted to Lighten, which is one step up from Sell. No change in the view the shares are materially overvalued or that a slow down will arrive for the minerals testing business.

Life sciences' result was in line with the broker's forecast. Fair value assessment has lifted to $8.60 from $8.40. That awaited slow down is now anticipated to arrive in FY25. The broker has penciled in no growth that year (from FY24).

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $12.11 Difference: minus $3.51 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.71, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APA as Equal-weight (3) -

Management reiterated guidance for near-term opex and capex at the APA Group investor day, along with additional details relating to the company's remote power strategy and prospects. 

The customer-led opportunity to reduce remote power costs via integrating solar, batteries and eventually wind was highlighted by management.

FY24 dividend guidance for 56cps was reaffirmed.

The Equal-weight rating and $9.28 target are unchanged. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $9.28 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: $0.83
If APA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAJ as Outperform (1) -

Capitol Health is delivering ahead of expectations, with the company's organic revenue year-to-date up 11.9% on the previous comparable period.

This compares with Macquarie's expected 7.6% growth over the first half, with the broker now lifting its assumptions to 9% growth. 

The company also reported solid improvement on FY23's 19.2% margins, and Macquarie retains its expectations of a first half margin of 20.2%. Low margin services have ceased with contracts reaching end dates. 

The Outperform rating and target price of 30 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.1
If CAJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 39.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as No Rating (-1) -

While there was no FY24 guidance upgrade at Computershare's AGM, Morgan Stanley feels performance-to-date is tracking better than in August. Hedging is ahead of target, notes the broker, and Computershare Corporate Trust (CCT) balances are also higher.

Additionally, explain the analysts, volumes are stronger in Employee Share Plans & Corporate Actions, and CCT costs are better.

No target or rating are currently set by Morgan Stanley.

Current Price is $23.42. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Yesterday's AGM update is taken as a positive and UBS continues to see the outlook as positive for a cyclical recovery in Computershare's core business operations.

UBS's forecasts remain above market consensus, on the broker's own observation. Modeling has now taken into account the loss of mortgages, as well as the Solium acquisition, and further input from the trading update.

Assuming a higher cost of capital reduces the price target to $32 from $33. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $23.42 Difference: $8.58
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CUV as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage of Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals with an $18 fair value calculation and a Hold rating, suggesting the market is too pessimistic about this biotech's future.

The company's key product, Scenesse, is the only approved treatment for phototoxic reactions specifically associated with erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP), a rare genetic disease, the analyst explains.

 Current forecasts are for a five-year group CAGR of 13% compared with 19% revenue growth in FY23.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $16.59 Difference: $1.41
If CUV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.33, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Outperform (1) -

Similiar to company guidance, Macquarie is anticipating Endeavour Group's full year electronic gaming device (EGM) revenue will be flat, if not slightly negative, compared to FY23.

Early implementation of shorter trading hours, in line with changes to gaming regulations in Victoria, has had no material impact.

With Endeavour Group's annual EGM revenue accounting for around 42% of its hotel division turnover, flat to negative EGM revenue growth may pose downside risk to FY24 expectations. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.60 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.71
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Citi was positioned for a strong result from Flight Centre Travel, but didn't quite get it. Top line growth communicated at the AGM proved better-than-expected, but onboarding of new businesses weighed down the margin, and thus the bottom line.

Citi analysts are not too disappointed, arguing this is actually a nice problem to have. Hence, the broker has retained its positive bias.

Minor reductions to forecasts have occurred. Target price declines to $23.60 from $25.85. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $18.78 Difference: $4.82
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Buy (1) -

It is Ord Minnett's view that Flight Centre Travel's AGM update acted as a reminder to investors not to allow short-term noise interfere with a longer-term investment thesis.

The fact the share price responded negatively to the company's outlook is ascribed to the market being "confused".

Ord Minnett has retained its Buy rating, while lifting its fair value estimation to $26.68 from $26.12. The broker argues its projections for FY25 are not aggressive.

No changes have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $26.68 Current Price is $18.78 Difference: $7.9
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

UBS comments Flight Centre Travel's AGM address revealed a "strong" start to FY24 for both leisure and corporate businesses.

Some of the negatives cited are lower operational leverage than forecast and the communication around the 2% aspirational margin target could have been better, in the broker's view.

The broker has made only minor adjustments to forecasts. Neutral. Target $23.45 (unchanged).

Target price is $23.45 Current Price is $18.78 Difference: $4.67
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.92, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

At first glance, GrainCorp's result outpaced UBS's forecasts and proved a beat on guidance thanks to a third consecutive bumper crop.

The broker says a working capital unwind in the second half proved a positive surprise and expects there may be more to come.

While drier winter crop conditions are expected in FY24 in the north east-coast, management cites excellent harvest quality in the southern growing areas.

On the processing front, crush volumes are expected to remain elevated, but margin pressures are likely to rise.

Buy rating and $9.50 target price.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $2.08
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.83, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Neutral (3) -

As per Macquarie, Inghams Group has had a strong start to FY24. In Australia, the company has benefitted from improvements in operational performance, alongside increased demand for low-cost poultry amid the rising cost of living.

Macquarie warns of higher capital expenditure in coming years as the company executes on delayed investment plans. The company guides to -$100m in capital expenditure in FY24, and the broker expects similar levels over the medium term. 

Planned investment into automation and value adding processing should steer margins towards the company's double-digit earnings margin target. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.10 from $3.80.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.94 Difference: $0.16
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

IPH has demonstrated trading momentum ahead of expectations over the first four months of the year, according to Macquarie. The company delivered flat earnings in the period, which compares to the broker's expected -14% decline for the full first half. 

Australia, New Zealand and Asia will be cycyling easier comps for much of the year, particularly cycling the cyber incident of the second half.

The Canadian business continues to make progress with its bolt on acquisitions, and the broker believes it has a promising second half legal pipeline.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $12.95 from $12.75.

Target price is $12.95 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $6.21
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.36, suggesting upside of 48.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPH as Overweight (1) -

Following IPH's AGM trading update for the first four months of the financial year, Morgan Stanley anticipates limited changes to the consensus forecast for FY24 earnings.

While the like-for-like performance for A&NZ was a beat versus the broker's forecast, Asia was a miss due to ongoing impacts from a client loss. No trading update was provided by management for Canada.

Target is $10.50. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $3.76
If IPH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.36, suggesting upside of 48.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPH as Buy (1) -

UBS found IPH's trading update a touch stronger than forecast. Both A&NZ and the Asian operations performed sligthly better-than-expected.

The business's future has always centred around consolidation and acquisitions, but UBS also suggests the key driver for a PE re-rating will be stabilisation of A&NZ filing market share as this should restore investor confidence in the core region's sustainable organic growth outlook.

Only minor amendments have been made to forecasts. Revised target of $9.10 includes 35c for future acquisitions, the broker explains. Buy.

The target has declined from $9.80 previously as UBS has lifted the risk free rate to 4% from 3.5%.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $2.36
If IPH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.36, suggesting upside of 48.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

Citi initiates coverage on domestic asset managers Magellan Financial and Platinum Asset Management. Both have suffered funds under management outflows, and Citi describes the funds under management growth profile as dire.

The broker has a preference for Magellan Financial, not only because of recent management changes, but also due to the lower cost to income ratio, flows and improving funds under management mix. 

While both stocks appear "inexpensive", trading near historical lows, earnings risk remains, and Citi anticipates varying funds under management declines for both. The broker is Neutral rated on Magellan Financial, with a target price of $7.00.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.26 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.27, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MMS as Buy (1) -

On the one hand, Citi points out, the growing market continues to be positive for McMillan Shakespeare. But on the other hand, the reduction in frequency of plan renewals is becoming evident and presents a headwind.

Citi estimates plan renewal fees were circa 8% of revenue in FY23. The broker also believes the company is losing market share of plan management, but given market growth overall is running above expectations, this is not seen as a major negative.

Slight reductions in estimates have ensued. Price target drops to $20.50 (-20c). Buy rating retained.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.03 Difference: $2.47
If MMS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.39, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MXI as Buy (1) -

MaxiPARTS announced yet two additional acquisitions and Ord Minnett comments this is simply part of the consolidation process that is taking place in the commercial vehicle aftermarket.

Through adding Independent Parts and Foerch Brisbane, MaxiPARTS is further increasing its market share, the broker concludes.

The announcement came with a strong Q1 trading update, according to the broker's commentary. Buy rating retained. Price target lifts to $3.60 from $3.30.

FY25 forecasts have increased.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $1.16
If MXI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

It is Ord Minnett's view nib Holdings' trading update was a rather mixed affair, but there are no consequences for the broker's medium-term projections.

The broker's forecasts assume a lower-than-expected claims catchup post covid. This has been supporting the insurer's earnings, but Ord Minnett flags it will become less of a tailwind from here onwards.

The travel business is performing weaker-than-expected since the white-label agreement with Qantas Airways ((QAN)) was discontinued. There's a new agreement with Woolworths Group ((WOW)), expected to launch in November, the analyst points out.

Fair value estimation remains at $7.50. The Hold rating implies an upgrade from the Lighten in August.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $0
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.26, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Nufarm reported ahead of Bell Potter's forecast. The broker has nonetheless cut its earnings forecasts by -15% and -3% in FY24-25 to reflect additional costs for omega-3 and a lower Asia-Pacific contribution.

Nufarm trades at a sizeable discount to its global ag-chem peer group, the broker notes, despite delivering stronger second half growth rates and having exposure to high-growth, ESG-friendly revenues in biofuels and sustainable omega-3 oils.

Buy retained, target falls to $6.30 from $6.75.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $1.49
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Having completed its examination of Nufarm's FY23 result, Citi upgrades the company to Buy from Neutral and raises the target price to $5.60 from $4.65.

Citi says Nufarm posted a solid result at a time when global peers are still staring down softer demand.

Management delivered positive FY24, albeit mixed guidance, Crop Protection remaining under pressure in the first half before recovering in the second.

The company expected to generate solid earnings from base seeds Carinata and Omega 3, despite the latter being in a ramp-up phase, with much more to come once production is in full swing.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.79
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie finds Nufarm's full year a solid result, with an earnings decline of -2% on the previous year comparing well to an average -25% decline from its global peers, albeit set against low expectations. 

The company has not provided specific guidance for FY24, but does anticipate trading to remain challenged in the first half before returning to growth in the second half. 

Macquarie is expecting the market to focus more closely on the company's seeds operations, as earnings growth from the division starts to come through. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.80 from $6.25.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.99
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Equal-weight (3) -

Nufarm's FY23 result was in line with management's recent guidance though Morgan Stanley points out the composition was favourable due to strength in the higher quality seeds business.

Leverage returned to the targeted range and the broker assesses cash flow was "solid". While there was only limited outlook commentary, it appeared broadly in line with expectations held by consensus.

Given recent share price weakness, the analyst anticipates a modestly positive share price reaction to the results.

The $5.50 target and Equal-weight rating are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.69
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Hold (3) -

A slight fall in FY23 earnings (EBITDA) was considered a good outcome by Morgans in light of two strong prior years, and the overall performance was stronger than the peer group of companies. Challenging operating conditions are expected to remain in the 1H of FY24.

While the analysts expect material downgrades to consensus estimates, earnings growth should accelerate in FY25/26.

A 5cps unfranked final dividend was declared.

The Hold rating is unchanged given near-term earnings uncertainty, explains Morgans. The target rises to $5.40 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $0.59
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -

UBS saw Nufarm releasing FY23 financials in line with recent guidance with a key surprise through net debt/leverage reduction. Operating cash generation facilitated that surprise.

Whereas crop protection went backwards, the seeds business yet again stole the show, in the broker's view. The performance in crop protection is nevertheless labeled as "credible" in light of multiple challenges.

In comparison with struggling international peers, UBS lauds the fact Nufarm is proving to be more resilient, ascribed to the many changes that have been made to the business over the 4-5 years past.

UBS continues to view Nufarm as undervalued, in particular with "considerable upside potential" still residing with the seeds portfolio. Buy. Target $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: $2.19
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is anticipating the Brookfield-EIG consortium bid for Origin Energy to fail, given AustralianSuper has increased its interest in the latter to 16.5%. 

With its major shareholder demonstarting confidence in the business, Macquarie sees potential that Origin Energy could demerge its businesses, which the broker believes could drive better price-ratio multiples and increase corporate appeal. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $9.39 are retained. 

Target price is $9.39 Current Price is $8.57 Difference: $0.82
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.02, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PTM as Sell (5) -

Citi initiates coverage on domestic asset managers Platinum Asset Management and Magellan Financial. Both have suffered funds under management outflows, and the broker describes the funds under management growth profile as dire. 

The broker considers ongoing outflows from retail clients, continuing weak performance, and strategy implementation as negatives for Platinum Asset Management. 

While both stocks appear "inexpensive", trading near historical lows, earnings risk remains, and Citi anticipates varying funds under management declines for both. The broker is Sell rated on Platinum Asset Management, with a target price of $1.00.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Regis Healthcare has announced the acquisition of five residential aged care homes, adding 644 beds to the company's portfolio over Brisbane and the Gold Coast. Macquarie notes the purchase looks to be earnings per share accretive in FY24. 

It is the broker's understanding the acquisition price of $349,000 per bed is cheaper than the development costs associated with a new site. With the acquired portfolio having a 96% occupancy rate, Macquarie also considers the acquisition lower risk than development.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.05 from $2.65.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.18
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REG as Accumulate (2) -

Regis Healthcare has purchased CPSM Care, a Queensland aged care provider providing 644 beds across five facilities.

Ord Minnett observe's CPSM's is a quality portfolio situated in metropolitan growth areas, boasting September-quarter occupancy of 96%.

The broker envisages relatively few upgrades will be needed given 80% of beds have been built or upgraded since 2018, with a large percentage being single-ensuite rooms

Ord Minnett estimates the deal will be 13% accretive and add a 9% increase in beds.

EPS forecasts rise 5% in FY24; and 12% in FY25.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price rises to $3.10 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.23
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -

At Seek's AGM, FY24 guidance was reaffirmed and management noted pricing power is being supported given ongoing labour market tightness and wages growth. 

Morgan Stanley highlights management's commentary yield growth is offsetting lower job advertisement volumes in A&NZ and most Asian markets.

The broker's Overweight rating and $29.50 target are unchanged. It's felt the company's share price will experience a catch-
up period when the Job Ads market stabilises and eventually turns higher. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $23.31 Difference: $6.19
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.60, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SEK as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Yesterday's Report included an initial assessment by UBS of Seek's AGM address. Today, upon further reflection and analysis, the broker has decided to upgrade to Buy from Neutral.

The broker is "pleased" the company reiterated guidance for FY24. The trend in H1 is "resilient", comments the analyst, and that's sufficient for a more positive skew about the outlook for the rest of the year.

Listings are declining but in line with expectations. UBS does lower its projections for Asia as the Seek Asia tracker shows volumes weakening in most markets, except Indonesia.

Buy. Target lifts to $27.40.

Target price is $27.40 Current Price is $23.31 Difference: $4.09
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.60, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi believes investors are considering the potential for A-REITs to outperform against the ASX200 in the short-term. As per the broker's analysis the sector has historically benefitted as rates peak, outperforming within the four months prior to a first RBA rate cut. 

In considering which stocks may be best positioned for a recovery, the broker expects beneficiaries of the rate cycle to include residential stocks, defensive retail real estate stocks, industrial stocks and higher beta value stocks. 

Within its coverage, this includes Stockland, Mirvac Group ((MGR)), BWP Trust ((BWP)), Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR)), Vicinity Centres ((VCX)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), GPT Group ((GPT)), and Charter Hall ((CHC)). 

For Stockland, the Buy rating and target price of $5.00 are retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.97
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko's September first-half result sharply outpaced Ord Minnett's forecast, turning in a normalised net loss of -$7.2m, compared with the broker's -$12.4m estimate.

Ord Minnett says the result demonstrates the huge operating leverage in the business and put paid to speculation that the deal with Booking.com was fictional.

The broker admires the company's balance sheet and raises EPS forecasts sharply for FY24 and 5% for FY25 and FY26.

Buy rating retained, the broker considering this to be a good entry point for the medium to long-term investor. Target price rises to $5.45 from $5.03.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.25 Difference: $1.2
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SLH as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Silk Logistics' AGM revealed the business is tracking in line with expectations held by Shaw and Partners. The Buy, High Risk rating and $3.00 target are unchanged.

Subject to no further worsening in the economic backdrop, management expects to grow revenue and earnings in FY24 broadly in line with market consensus forecasts.

The DP World cyber attack on November 10 impacted containers bound for facilities owned by Silk Logistics, but management expects the situation will be resolved within a week. Increased costs will either be passed on to customers or recouped from DP World.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $1.31
If SLH meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SRG as Buy, High Risk (1) -

FY24 year-to-date contract wins for SRG Global now total $466m, observes Shaw and Partners, following an announced $200m in extra contracts.

The contracts are with new and existing clients in the transport, energy, defence, water, mining, ports and building sectors, explains the broker.

Management has guided to underlying earnings (EBITDA) growth of circa 20% for FY24 on the previous corresponding period, and the broker forecasts the same.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $1.15 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.47
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SRV as Buy (1) -

As a result of strong growth during the first four months of FY24, Shaw and Partners notes Servcorp upgraded FY24 guidance at its AGM.

Underlying profit in the range of $50m-$55m, is now expected, up from $46m-$49m, and underlying free cash of more than $70m is anticipated compared to more than $65m prior.

The company remains committed to continued organic expansion globally, notes the analyst, and revealed plans to unlock value in the Middle East operations, with potential for a dual listing of these in Saudi Arabia.

The broker's target rises to $6.00 from $5.60 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $3.005
If SRV meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SRV as Buy (1) -

Servcorp upgraded FY24 guidance and UBS suggests the upgrade amounts to 11% at the midpoint of the new pre-tax profit range of $50-55m, despite "fierce" competition and relatively "challenging" conditions.

The broker believes Servcorp is enjoying strong operational momentum, an observation already flagged in August.

The broker does acknowledge a deterioration in global business/macro conditions represents a risk, but UBS believes its medium-term forecasts are conservative.

Buy. Target $4.50. Forecasts have been upgraded.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $1.505
If SRV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVR as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Solvar provided a trading update with its AGM that was very similar to its October update, albeit this time, says Bell Potter, with more detail on debt facilities and funding costs.

Beyond FY24, Bell Potter's forecasts reflect a view that rising interest rates should restrain inflation, leading to a relatively benign slowdown in the economy without a lengthy recession. This should allow Solvar to grow and take market share without a significant rise in bad debts.

The broker will review these forecasts as the outlook becomes clearer. Recent weakness in the share price leads Bell Potter to upgrade to Buy from Hold. Target unchanged on $1.09.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.06
If SVR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPG as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

While TPG Telecom doesn't have a debt servicing problem, stresses Morgan Stanley, gearing levels are too high to justify a trading multiple near parity with Telstra Group ((TLS)).

Relative to Telstra, TPG Telecom has higher debt, a weaker mobile position and a greater exposure to any negative technology trends being experienced by enterprises, explains the broker. 

Morgan Stanley's rating for TPG Telecom is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target is reduced to $4.40 from $5.60. It's felt the company could explore cutting its dividend to zero, rather than selling its high quality fibre assets.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.81 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TYR as Outperform (1) -

While Tyro Payments has reaffirmed its full year guidance, Macquarie points out the company appears to be tracking towards the lower end of its $45.0-47.5bn transaction value guidance range, while both gross profit and transaction earnings margins are ahead of mid-point.

New applications are a positive at 1650 per month year-to-date, and expected to remain elevated with the launch of retail partnerships with The Good Guys and JB HiFi ((JBH)), but offset by higher churn. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.55 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.54
If TYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 68.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TYR as Add (1) -

Tyro Payments reaffirmed key FY24 guidance metrics as part of an operational update at the AGM. Morgans believes year-to-date transaction value of $15.9bn is tracking towards the bottom end of the FY24 guidance range.

The broker also feels the announced $20m buyback signals the board considers the stock is undervalued. Management also announced a further efficiency initiative to reduce headcount by around -10% from the total at the end of FY23.

The Add rating is maintained and the target falls to $1.77 from $1.85 as the broker's earnings upgrades are offset by an increase in the assumed discount rate.

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.76
If TYR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 68.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Judging from UBS's commentary, Tyro Payments' AGM trading update included multiple acknowledgments that can be read as a negative, but the broker prefers to see the positives.

Merchant churn is a clear headwind for the company, the broker admits, but things are still unfolding in line with forecasts, as well as management's guidance, the broker softens.

Comparative data for total transaction value should become easier through H2, the analyst suggests.

Buy rating retained, while the price target drops to $1.65 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.64
If TYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 68.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi analysts have taken a chainsaw to their forecasts for earnings and cashflow for Woodside Energy, resulting in material downgrades, which pulls back the broker's price target by -16% to $26.50.

Given this is substantially lower than today's share price, Citi has downgraded its rating to Sell from Neutral.

Adding more weight to their decision: Citi believes market consensus will follow in its footsteps as the downgrades in forecasts are based upon the company's own projections for the next five years.

Citi believes Woodside's earnings power is deteriorating. The decline of legacy LNG and acquired assets mean Woodside is increasingly capex intensive, evidenced by circa US$20bn of committed capex merely keeping production flat, the broker concludes.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $32.39 Difference: minus $5.89 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.57, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources