Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Neutral, High Risk (3) -

Citi retains its 45c target and Neutral rating for 29Metals finding it difficult to explain the -20% share price fall following 3Q results given a lack of new or unexpected news. High Risk rating is reiterated. 

While Capricorn Copper consumed -$23m of cash flow in Q3, the broker expects cash outflows will reduce through 2025 as water projects are completed at the mine.

Cash at quarter's end was $60m, note the analysts, when consensus was expecting around $90m.

Citi sees risk to debt covenants, but notes management is revisiting senior debt facilities now there's only one operating asset.

More positively, Golden Grove delivered operating cash flow of $16m in the 3Q.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.01
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

29Metals reported 3Q2024 copper production which was lower than Macquarie's expectations in contrast to zinc which was better than forecast.

Operating costs at Golden Grove came in above estimates by 2.4% from stockpile movements. Management retained 2024 guidance, although zinc could be challenged to meet forecasts, the broker highlights.

The broker raises EPS forecasts between 2% to 6% for FY24 to FY26 earnings. The balance sheet remains at risk, Macquarie emphasises.

29Metals is Neutral rated. Target price lifts 21% to 46c.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.02
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views 29Metals reported "mixed" results in the Sept quarter, with 2024 guidance unchanged.

The analyst emphasises to achieve FY24 guidance zinc will need to remain robust in 4Q, and a pick-up in silver is required as it is currently at the lower end of expectations. Copper is ahead of estimates while gold is in line.

29Metals completed Golden Grove Mill shutdown over the quarter.

Overweight and 55c target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.11
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Speculative Buy (1) -

A -$25m 3Q cash outflow overshadowed operational results for 29Metals, in Ord Minnett's view. It's felt the balance sheet remains a significant impediment, hence the broker's unchanged Speculative Buy rating. The 75c target is also maintained.

The broker points out Capricorn Copper water discharge/treatment infrastructure spending will ease, starting in 2025. Also, it's noted the frequent, costly tailing dam lifts at Golden Grove will cease once the Tailings Storage Facility 4 is completed by March next year.

The analyst notes 29Metals has $104m in liquidity on the balance sheet comprising $60m in cash and $43m of undrawn debt.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.31
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 28.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A1M as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of AIC Mines with a Buy rating and 60c target price.

The broker highlights AIC Mines is a copper exploration and mining company via its 100% owned Eloise Copper project in WA, which is an underground copper/gold mine with targeted production of 12,500t copper and 5,000oz of gold in FY25.

Management has a good track record of asset development, the analyst highlights, with experience in acquisition and organic-based growth.

The aim is for the processing plant to be expanded to 20,000t per annum of copper production.

Buy rating. Target price 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.26
If A1M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 125.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Post meeting with US land-based casinos in Oklahoma and iGaming companies/customers in Las Vegas, Macquarie retains a high conviction on the outlook for Aristocrat Leisure.

The analyst highlights the macro backdrop remains positive with the company possessing the "deepest and best product set".

Aristocrat Leisure continues to be a high cash flow generator underpinning buybacks, estimated by the analyst at $750m annually, M&A options, and a return to net cash in FY27.

Macquarie forecasts a compound average growth rate in EPS of 12% for the three years to FY27 which sits some 4% higher than consensus and is expected to be generated from earnings growth across all three "verticals".

The broker's target rises $12 to $67 based on a lift in the multiple ascribed to the stock to a 15% premium from 5% previously. Outperform rating remains.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $58.77 Difference: $8.23
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.47, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals reported softer than forecast gold production and higher than expected copper production in 1Q25, Macquarie highlights, although cost guidance was retained.

Weaker gold production was attributed to a soft performance at Peak. Lead production was also lower than expected. Cash on hand stood at $103.2m, down -$11m and more than estimated.

Macquarie lowers earnings forecasts for the weak quarterly result by -8% for FY25 EPS and raises FY26 EPS estimates by 8% for the updated hedge book.

Target price declines -4% to 24c. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.05
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

While yesterday's 1Q results for Aurelia Metals were slightly softer-than-expected, Ord Minnett was buoyed by the release of the Cobar Optimisation Study which should result in higher net present value (NPV) estimates by the market.

Management outlined an around $40-60m NPV improvement now that the Peak mill expansion to 1.1mtpa from 0.8mtpa is the preferred choice, rather than restarting the Hera underground gold-lead-zinc mine.

Despite this positive, the share price fell post the update creating an opportunity for investors to buy the stock, in the broker's opinion.

The Speculative Buy rating and 27c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.08
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AOV as Add (1) -

Following trading updates and AGMs, Morgans makes minor to moderate EPS downgrades across its coverage of the Auto Parts sector as sales growth in the September quarter missed expectations. Stronger 2H skews are expected.

Amotiv is the broker's favoured pick given the business quality and entrenched market position across core categories, along with a clear runway for growth.

The Add rating is kept, and the target falls to $12.80 from $13.30.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $10.90 Difference: $1.9
If AOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.02, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARB as Hold (3) -

Following trading updates and AGMs, Morgans makes minor to moderate EPS downgrades across its coverage of the Auto Parts sector as sales growth in the September quarter missed expectations. Stronger 2H skews are expected. Amotiv is the favoured pick.

For ARB Corp, the broker highlights the Australian aftermarket order book remains strong, with the Export order book expected to benefit from the Off Road Warehouse/4 Wheel Parts acquisition and improving trade conditions in key markets.

The Hold rating is kept, and the target falls to $37.75 from $38.50.

Target price is $37.75 Current Price is $42.18 Difference: minus $4.43 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.18, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Following trading updates and AGMs, Morgans makes minor to moderate EPS downgrades across its coverage of the Auto Parts sector as sales growth in the September quarter missed expectations. Stronger 2H skews are expected. Amotiv is the favoured pick.

For Bapcor, management noted the Australian Trade and Specialist Networks businesses are performing well, but the Retail division
continues to be challenged.

The company reaffirmed its targeted -$20-30m in cost savings in FY25, skewed to H2.

The target falls to $5.25 from $5.35. Hold.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.46
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Boss Energy reported 1Q25 results which revealed production "in circuit" of 110klbs and drummed (literally in drums) production of 89.5klbs, delivered by the 1st column. Drummed production came in slightly below Bell Potter's expectations.

Sales of 200klbs for $24.3m were better than anticipated and operating cash flow of $9.5m was a positive.

Bell Potter notes the 2nd column is now in operation and the 3rd column under construction for 2Q2025 commissioning with the analyst focusing on delivery of columns to underwrite expansion up to 2.45mlbs.

The broker cuts EPS estimates by -13% in FY25 and lifts FY26 by 2% due to changes in uranium price and sales forecasts. All-in-sustaining-costs are estimated at $45lb or US$30lb.

No change to Buy rating and $5.70 target price.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $2.1
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Honeymoon ramped up in 1Q25 with column 1 achieving "nameplate" capacity. The focus is now on commissioning of column 3.

Quarterly shipments were in line with the analyst's forecasts, a first "milestone" and production lower than anticipated.

The broker highlights most of Boss Energy's production remains uncontracted. This quarter the company signed a new market-linked contract with a US power utility. Sales agreements are circa 3.5mlbs of U308 for 2024/2033 against Honeymoon's nameplate at around 2.45mlbs.

Morgan Stanley states Alta Mesa is expected to fully operational by 2026 and recent weather has restricted night power in South Australia.

Target price $3. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners acknowledges the "milestone" for Boss Energy in Honeymoon achieving the first shipments and cash flow as announced in the 1Q15 activities report.

The analyst observes the project's ramp up is proceeding in line with expectations with no change in FY25 guidance of 850klb of uranium production. 1Q25 drummed production of 89,516lbs compared to 4Q24 of 28,844lbs with a first shipment, 57,000lbs and 200,000lb sale at US$78/lb, for a cash receipt of $23.4m.

Shaw and Partners highlights the "disconnect" between the share prices for uranium stocks and the improving term contract price.

There are no changes to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Buy rating with $4.20 target price unchanged.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $0.6
If BOE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades its rating for BlueScope Steel to Neutral from Buy given US steel price momentum is stalling, and Asian spreads continue to be pressured by high Chinese exports.

Chinese steel consumption is contracting at a faster rate than production, note the analysts thereby boosting net steel exports.

As steel spreads normalise and North Star and Australian domestic volumes lift, the broker points out valuation metrics remain supportive for BlueScope Steel. Citi's $23 target is kept.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.14 Difference: $1.86
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.25, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

It is Citi's early assessment that Brambles' Q1 market update signals a modestly slower start to the new financial year, with management sticking by its guidance for FY25.

The broker finds the slower start "unsurprising" given FY24 ended on a strong note.

Also, given flat European pricing, Citi comments US pricing will need to maintain strength through 2H to hit management's target.

Neutral. Target $18.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.57 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.03, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's initial assessment is that Brambles' Q1 trading update looks softer than expected, with management sticking with its prior guidance for FY25.

The company specifically referred to EMEA operations where pricing mechanisms linked to asset efficiency led to lower revenues, the broker highlights.

Macquarie also highlights Brambles expects an acceleration in new business wins through FY25  and thus far Americas and APAC have recorded 1% net new business wins, while EMEA's wins of 1% were neutralised by prior contract losses.

Management believes industry dynamics are improving with higher whitewood prices and lower availability of quality pallets encouraging a shift to pooling. Dual sourcing activity is also seen moderating.

Outperform. Target $17.85.

Target price is $17.85 Current Price is $18.57 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.03, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Hold (3) -

For ASX-listed classified players under coverage, Morgans updates current listings volume forecasts.

While volumes for CAR Group remain strong, the analyst notes they have been normalising after cycling stronger numbers in the previous corresponding period.

The broker remains attracted to the long-term growth potential within the business. Hold. Target rises to $36.30 from $35.40.

The AGM is due on October 25.

Target price is $36.30 Current Price is $36.90 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.67, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates 1Q25 trading update from CommBank will show pre-provision profit to increase by around 6% against the 2H24 quarterly average. Revenue is expected to expand by around 4.5% and expenses circa 2.5%.

Net interest margin will be a key focus again with the broker expecting a lift of 2bps to 2.02% with ongoing feedback on how competitive the loans and deposits market are currently.

Volume growth for mortgages is forecast at 1.2 times and 1 time household deposits with 1.1 times for business lending. Credit quality is expected to weaken also. No commentary on guidance is expected as there will not be a management update at the trading update.

For CommBank, the target price is $113.50. Underweight retained. Industry View In-Line.

Target price is $113.50 Current Price is $141.78 Difference: minus $28.28 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $101.02, suggesting downside of -29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CY5 as Buy (1) -

In the 1Q25 report for Cygnus Metals, Shaw and Partners notes the company intends to merge with Dore Copper Mining Corp with the aim of developing the companies' lithium and copper assets.

Dore has a copper equivalent resource of 10.8mt at 3.5% and its Chibougamau project has a 900kt per annum processing facility with excellent infrastructure, the broker stresses, including 25kv of hydro power supply.

Upon merger in December, Cygnus Metals' shareholders will own 55% of the company and Dore shareholders 45%.

Buy, High Risk rating. Target price falls to 25c from 30c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.105
If CY5 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBO as Add (1) -

Management at Ebos Group has reconfirmed underlying earnings (EBITDA) guidance which implies growth of between 5-10% when excluding the Chemist Warehouse contract, notes Morgans 

Also excluding this contract, 1Q earnings growth was 7.4%, which the broker points out is inside the guidance range.

No changes are made to the broker's forecasts. The Add rating and $39.04 target are maintained.

Target price is $39.04 Current Price is $33.47 Difference: $5.57
If EBO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.18, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses a positive trading update by Fletcher Building with revenue tracking around 3% ahead of expectations and management maintaining the volume outlook. Guidance is for a material pick up in 2H residential sales.

The broker is cautiously optimistic the business is trending in the right direction especially with the recent boost from lower interest rates in New Zealand.

The Buy rating and NZ$3.30 target price are maintained.

Current Price is $2.84. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

Fletcher Building did not provide any FY25 earnings guidance at its ASM but did express a skew to 2H25 earnings  with a 40:60 spilt, Macquarie notes.

The company also announced the acting Chair is departing in 1Q25 when a replacement is found in order of Chair, CEO and then CFO.

Operationally, guidance infers "at least" -NZ$180m in gross cost outs while manufacturing/distribution volumes feel -10% to -15% over the quarter.

Macquarie lowers estimates by -9% for FY25 EPS and -8% for FY26 EPS. Underperform rating unchanged. Target price falls to NZ$2.22 from NZ$2.39.

Current Price is $2.84. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting downside of -11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Upon first read of today's market update, Citi analysts believe Fortescue's Q1 update revealed slightly higher costs and lower-than-expected price realisations, but broadly taken, the performance seems in line.

One of the items highlighted is the Feasibility Study assessing a 1mtpa capacity green iron metal project in the Pilbara is proposed to commence in 2025.

The broker also points out management has made no changes to FY25 guidance.

Neutral. Target $19.40.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $19.77 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

In an initial response to today's Q1 market update by Fortescue, Macquarie comments volumes and shipments (sales) look in line with forecasts but higher costs and lower prices disappointed.

The broker believes the price misses are surprising given the product quality moves. Net debt missed both its and consensus expectation. Management has left FY25 guidance unchanged.

Underperform. Target $14.25.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $19.77 Difference: minus $5.52 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HVN as Buy (1) -

Buy-rated Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi remain Citi's two top picks in the consumer discretionary space, and both stand to benefit from an acceleration in robot vacuum sales growth. JB Hi-Fi will likely benefit most given its dominance in the electrical category.

Mobile app download data suggest robot vacuum sales grew by around 24% in Australia for the September quarter, consistent with the broker's industry feedback.

The analysts anticipate these robot sales will eventually hit a similar penetration level to dishwashers.

The $5.50 target for Harvey Norman is unchanged.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: $0.86
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers the consumer with expectations tax cuts have alleviated some of the "cumulative" pressures on household budgets. 

August sales picked up, but the analyst believes consumers are seeking to save more. The broker prefers consumer staple stocks over consumer discretionary stocks on valuation grounds, with a potential for "higher-for-longer" interest rates to underpin an Underweight view on discretionary.

Morgan Stanley highlights Harvey Norman and Wesfarmers ((WES)) are less likely to return capital as their balance sheets remain geared at net/debt equity around 16% and 47%, respectively.

Underweight rating. Target price increases to $4.00 from $3.90. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Accumulate (2) -

Iluka Resources materially missed the consensus forecast for revenue in Q3 due to lower-than-expected sales volumes and a soft market environment, explains Ord Minnett.

While the broker lowers its 2024 EPS estimate for Iluka by -5%, the 2025 forecast rises by 5%. Discussions with pigment customers suggest to management Q4 may be the trough for sales due to falling US interest rates and stimulus efforts in China.

The company also noted EU tariffs on imports from China are likely to boost demand.

Accumulate. Target falls to $7.00 from $7.05. 

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $1
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Buy-rated Harvey Norman and JB Hi-Fi remain Citi's two top picks in the consumer discretionary space, and both stand to benefit from an acceleration in robot vacuum sales growth. JB Hi-Fi will likely benefit most given its dominance in the electrical category.

Mobile app download data suggest robot vacuum sales grew by around 24% in Australia for the September quarter, consistent with the broker's industry feedback.

The analysts anticipate these robot sales will eventually hit a similar penetration level to dishwashers.

The $85 target for JB Hi-Fi is unchanged. Buy.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $80.87 Difference: $4.13
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.87, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers the consumer with expectations tax cuts have alleviated some of the "cumulative" pressures on household budgets. 

August sales picked up, but the analyst believes consumers are seeking to save more. The broker prefers consumer staple stocks over consumer discretionary stocks on valuation grounds, with a potential for "higher-for-longer" interest rates to underpin an Underweight stance on discretionary.

Morgan Stanley highlights JB Hi-Fi and Super Retail Group ((SUL)) are in a stronger position with scope for improved capital management, like robust balance sheets and zero interest cost debt since the start of covid.

The analyst forecasts a FY25 dividend of around $2.72 with a special 80c dividend per share.

Underweight rating. Target rises to $67.10 from $60.60. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $67.10 Current Price is $80.87 Difference: minus $13.77 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.87, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

In an initial view, Citi believes Karoon Energy's Q3 update is a net positive with an additional US$25m in buying back the company's own shares taking advantage of the low share price.

Also, management has narrowed down 2025 guidance to 10.5-10.8mmboe from 10.5-12.5mmboe.

3Q24 was softer on timing of cargoes but otherwise largely in line and the broker believes the positives mentioned will prove more important.

Citi analysts have decided to open a positive short term trading view (30 days). Target $2.20. Buy.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.81
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 61.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy (1) -

Lunnon Metals reported some very high grades and multiple gold intercepts at Kambalda for the Lady Herial project, Shaw and Partners observes, with the aim of expanding the gold project in the Foster belt to similar Lady Herial "lookalikes".

As at the end of 1Q25, the company had $21.1m cash on the balance sheet and further assay results are expected in the near term.

The Buy, High Risk rating and 60c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.3
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MAF as Add (1) -

In the wake of MA Financial's 3Q operating update, Morgans raises its target to $7.02 from $5.46. Earnings forecasts rise on slightly higher expectations for funds under management (FUM) growth and the margin. The target also rises due to a valuation roll-forward.

Asset Management fund inflows (ex institutional) for the nine months to September 30 were up by 25% on the previous corresponding period, while Q3 gross flows rose by 11%.

The broker now expects "solid" earnings growth in FY25 boosted by MA Money now being earnings positive.

The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $7.02 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.61
If MAF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAF as Buy (1) -

Following an in-line 3Q update by MA Financial, Ord Minnett declares "an earnings recovery is well underway", (consistent with the broker's prior expectation), despite slightly lower-than-expected net flows in Asset Management.

Group assets under management (AUM) of $9.9bn was an 11.2% increase over the year and in line with the broker's $10bn forecast.

Ord Minnett's target rises to $7.20 from $7.00. The Buy rating is reiterated.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.79
If MAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.74, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MEK as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates research coverage on Meeka Metals with a Speculative Buy rating. The company is developing the 100%-owned, high grade Murchison Gold Project which is set to produce up to 64koz per annum.

The company forecasts a swift, low-capex start-up as the mine benefits from existing infrastructure. Also, oxide starter pits de-risk development of the high-grade Andy Well mine, explains the analyst.

While not included in the broker's current valuation (target of 19c), additional upside is expected from a 30% increase in processing capacity, which will materially increase the company's earnings capability.

In December, management is due to provide an updated definitive feasibility study (DFS) outlining the processing expansion scenario.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.115
If MEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 153% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Neutral (3) -

Yesterday's AGM trading update by Michael Hill was in line with Citi's forecasts. Management commentary was consistent with the broker's forecast for around 160bps of margin improvement in H1, relative to H2 of FY24.

The last six weeks of the 14 weeks of trading so far in FY25 showed acceleration across all regions compared to the first eight weeks, highlight the analysts.

The Neutral rating and 57c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.01
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Michael Hill's trading update at the AGM revealed a slight improvement in revenue growth over the six weeks since the last update.

Same store sales in Australia increased 6.3% from 5%, Canada rose 4.7% from 4%, and NZ fell -4.2% less than -6.2%, previously.

The broker believes the company can meet the FY25 gross margin target of 62% a rise of 140bps on FY24.

Outperform rating remains with a NZ$0.73 target price.

Current Price is $0.56. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

The majority of commentary at yesterday's Mystate AGM centered on the merger with Auswide Bank ((ABA)), notes Ord Minnett, and no earnings outlook was provided.

The broker believes the merger will drive a material valuation uplift as management delivers on the potential synergy benefits of $20m-25m per annum. These benefits are not as yet included in Ord Minnett's unchanged $4.31 target price.

The analyst is attracted to the dividend yield on offer and potentially strong earnings growth over the next few years.

The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.31 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.51
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Newmont Corp's Q3 report revealed production volumes in line with forecasts but there was a nasty negative surprise through higher costs, Citi suggests in an initial response.

The broker sees the added US$2bn to the share buyback as supported by "very strong" free cash flows.

While acknowledging the costs disappointment, the broker argues the expanded commitment to shareholder returns is positive.

Buy. Target US$66. 

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $87.35 Difference: $7.65
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Newmont Corp has updated the market with its Q3 trading and financial metrics and Macquarie, upon initial glance, believes volumes are in line with forecasts but the negative surprise came through higher-than-anticipated costs (AISC).

Looks like Boddington is the main culprit for the disappointment. Net profit missed the broker's and consensus estimate by some -9%, including an impairment of -US$115m. But underlying EBITDA is equally a miss to the tune of -15%-19%.

On the positive side, declared dividend has not missed forecasts and management has held on to its full year guidance, plus there is the formal approval of an additional US$2bn share buyback, labeled as "sunsurprising" by Macquarie.

Outperform. Target $90.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $87.35 Difference: $2.65
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

Citi's initial assessment of Northern Star Resources' September quarter update is that sales of 393.9koz are in line with consensus at the group level. 

Pogo performance has beaten the guided 1Q 50koz to sell 59koz. Production was weaker versus sales at 373.9koz with higher sales due to delays from the June quarter.

Headgrades across the group declined QoQ. AISC of $2082/oz is also in line with forecasts. Management has stuck with its prior guidance for FY25.

Target $18.30. Buy.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $17.43 Difference: $0.87
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.89, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's initial assessment is that Northern Star Resources' Q1 update revealed a slightly softer output with slightly higher-than-anticipated costs.

Sales met consensus but missed the broker's forecast by some -2%.

Macquarie thinks it is a positive management has left FY25 guidance in place. Plus KCGM should see grade-driven growth over the year, which is another positive.

Target $19. Outperform.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.43 Difference: $1.57
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.89, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy reconfirmed FY25 guidance at its AGM with volumes in the national electricity market underpinning demand growth, Macquarie assesses.

Retail churn is plateauing at reduced levels and Macquarie believes the company's earnings will meet upper end of guidance.

The reports from Octopus/Kraken support Kraken's aim for 100m customers by 2027, confirming to the analyst this is increasingly achievable.

The broker lifts forecasts by 0.1% for FY25 EPS and 7.6% for FY26 EPS. The price target rises to $10.50 from $10.43. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: $0.85
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the decline of -32% in Playside Studios' share price post the FY25 cash guidance at the AGM which the analyst believes is a "massive" overreaction.

The company continues to launch new games successfully although the broker points to a mismatch between investment timing and revenue generation, notably on some of the bigger titles.

Shaw and Partners believes Playside Studios remains well funded to enable new title launches and expects new releases like Mouse to boost cash to $33m from $20m.

Investors discounting Mouse as a failure is considered an "extreme" view given the viral success to date. Buy rating reiterated. High risk. Target price is lowered to 90c from $1.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.415
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral, High Risk (3) -

Cash margins for Perseus Mining rose in Q1 and the total of net cash and bullion lifted by $56m to $643m. Given Q2 is tracking even stronger, management expects production at the upper end of guidance, and costs at the low end, observes Citi.

Perseus sold its stake in Montage during the quarter (raising $45m in cash) and topped up its stake in Predictive to 19.9%. Predictive holds the 3.0moz Bankan project in Guinea.

The $3.10 target is maintained. Neutral, High Risk.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.12
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Perseus Mining reported a "solid" 1Q25 result with production ahead of expectations and consensus forecasts with all-in-sustaining costs lower than expectations by -8%.

Cash rose to US$563m with no debt which met the broker's expectations with bullion up US$29m on sales timing issues.

Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts for FY25 by 5% on the back of the update and 5% for FY26 EPS due to improved hedging.

Perseus Mining's Outperform rating has been retained. Target price $3.40 remains.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.42
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PRU as Buy (1) -

Perseus Mining's 1Q production beat Ord Minnett's cost forecasts while production was in line.

While the definitive feasibility study (DFS) for Nyanzaga due this quarter could positively impact the broker's forecasts, there are some emerging risks to 2025 forecasts.

The analyst explains these risks come from the Nkosou satellite development at Edikan, and the mid-year commissioning of the CMA underground project at the Yaoure Gold Mine in Cote d'Ivoire.

The target eases to $3.40 from $3.45. Buy.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.42
If PRU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PYC as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter explains further clinical data on PYC Therapeutics' main drug which is in early-stage trials, three patients revealed a "consistent" improvement in the eye treated compared to the non-treated eye.

The safety data were also positive which underpins further affirmation, the broker highlights, in the treatment's vision improvements in a brief time frame.

Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target price lifts to 25c from 17c due to a rise in valuation.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.06
If PYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses it is unlikely regulations will be imposed on insurers regarding price regulation, however, the broker does believe regulators like ASIC are seeking to ensure customers are not misled on pricing "promises".

The analyst highlights ASIC has started court proceedings which allege QBE Insurance misled customers on over 500,000 renewal notices on pricing for home, contents and car insurance between July 2017 and Sept 2022.

In 2022, the insurer took out a $110m provision in relation to this issue. Morgan Stanley states QBE Insurance has over $300m in capital above its target.

The Overweight rating and $19.30 targets are retained.  Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $17.09 Difference: $2.21
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

For ASX-listed classified players under coverage, Morgans updates current listings volume forecasts.

Volumes for REA Group remain robust, highlights the broker, with 1Q listings volumes growth stronger-than-anticipated.

The analyst now forecasts 3% national new listings volume growth for H1, up from 2%.

The target rises to $204 from $197. Hold.

Target price is $204.00 Current Price is $227.00 Difference: minus $23 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $234.43, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Cit's initial conclusion from today's market update by Reliance Worldwide is that the operational turnaround for the EMEA region is happening, but at a slower pace.

For management to maintain guidance the broker suggests there could be an argument that US/APAC may be tracking modestly above expectations.

Buy. Target $5.85.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $0.14
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

An extended shutdown, although planned, led to weak results from St. Barbara in 1Q25. Macquarie highlights production came in below forecasts by -30% and costs at Simberi were above estimates by 22%.

Management has retained FY25 guidance at 65-75koz and all-in-sustaining costs of $3200-$3600/oz. Macquarie expects a considerably stronger 2H25 with EPS estimated to gain 55%.

The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform due to a doubling of the share price over the last three months. Macquarie notes the company's leverage to the gold spot price, but believes risks around funding and permitting remain.

Target price rises 48% to 49c due to less assumed shares on issue.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.025
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -

For ASX-listed classified players under coverage, Morgans updates current listings volume forecasts.

For Seek, the broker believes management has the ability to pull levers such as new pricing model/platform unification benefits/discretionary cost management to drive growth in the medium-term.

The analyst suggests the trajectory of recent job ad volumes is arguable better than initial market expectations.

The Add rating is maintained. The target rises to $26.80 from $25.00.

The AGM is due on November 19.

Target price is $26.80 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: $1.62
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.04, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SEK as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Following recent share price strength, Ord Minnett downgrades its rating for Seek to Accumulate from Buy on valuation and maintains the $27 target.

The overall impact of the analyst's forecast changes is minor. One positive adjustment relates to higher listings growth assumptions by the broker in the Australasian market.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.18 Difference: $1.82
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.04, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie revisits the investment case for Sims post a restriction period and sale of UK metals for around $438m with US-based Circular Services expected to be sold for around $50m.

The divestments strengthen the balance sheet with the broker expecting a decline in net debt to around $170m from circa $691m in FY24.

A rally is Turkish scrap prices was "short-lived", the analyst states, and increasing steel exports from China have continued to put pressure on the global scrap market.

Target price set at $15.40 with an Outperform rating. Macquarie believes Sims is managing the down cycle well and the broker's FY25 forecasts are in line with consensus estimates.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: $2.4
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.09, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

Sonic Healthcare's hosted an investor presentation and site tour of its Clinipath laboratory in Perth, WA with Macquarie analysts highlighting Sonic has the largest team of pathologists (circa 40) amongst private providers in the state.

Also, market share in WA is 40% against circa 30% nationally.

The broker reports management expects margins to be supported by medicare indexation, increased specialist testing, and private fees/commercial testing opportunities.

Also: the Franklin.ai prostate biopsy algorithm is expected to be applied to processes and available for sale globally in 2025 following final trials.

Neutral. Target $26.10.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Lighten (4) -

As a read through for Sonic Healthcare's US business, Ord Minnett notes the recent quarterly result for peer Quest Diagnostics revealed operating profit margins were under pressure. 

Elevated wage inflation rates compared to pre-covid levels continue to weigh for Quest, notes the analyst.

Management did, however, reiterate expectations for mid-single-digit revenue growth, which aligns with the broker's long-term forecast for Sonic in the US.

The $23.50 target and Lighten rating are maintained.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: minus $3.65 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.70, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Service Stream's 1Q trading update displayed a continuation of the momentum Citi observed in FY24 with earnings growth most likely within management's 5-10% year-on-year targeted range.

Management noted the quality of earnings had improved in the quarter. The broker suspects this better quality stems from improvement in Utilities, due to a full 12 months of positive uplift from legacy agreements that were either re-negotiated or exited.

The analysts also attribute this quality to an optimisation of delivery and the cost base.

The Buy rating and $1.70 target are retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.14
If SSM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a positive 1Q trading update by Service Stream with management re-affirming expectations for positive earnings growth in FY25.

Adding to earnings quality, in the analysts' view, is the ongoing skew of contract wins to operations and maintenance-style contracts with longer duration.

The broker retains its Buy rating and raises the target price to $1.67 from $1.64.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.11
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail has posted a trading update and judging from Macquarie's initial response the performance throughout the early weeks of FY25 has broadly been in line with expectation.

Total sales growth of 4% compares against Macquarie's forecast of 4.5% growth and consensus' 4.4%. The broker emphasises how H1 will pan out remains dependent on this year's Christmas sales.

One of the standout performances has come from MacPac where sales have grown by 10% (like-for-like sales are up by 4%).

Target $17.80. Neutral.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $16.75 Difference: $1.05
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers the consumer with expectations tax cuts have alleviated some of the "cumulative" pressures on household budgets. 

August sales picked up, but the analyst believes consumers are seeking to save more. The broker prefers consumer staple stocks over consumer discretionary stocks on valuation grounds, with a potential for "higher-for-longer" interest rates to underpin an Underweight on discretionary.

Morgan Stanley highlights JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Super Retail Group are in a stronger position with scope for improved capital management, including robust balance sheets and zero interest cost debt since the start of covid.

Underweight on Super Retail. Target rises to $15.75 from $14.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $16.75 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Transurban Group's Q1 traffic update revealed slight disappointments from Melbourne and Brisbane, comments UBS. Traffic in Sydney and North America proved in line with forecasts.

Construction disruption and reduced Port of Melbourne container volumes weighed on Melbourne traffic.

The broker posits the most important factor for market sentiment towards the stock is now the independent toll review in NSW and how the state government will respond to it.

The Minns government has suggested a response will be made public before year-end.

Returning to the market update, UBS has only made minor adjustments to forecasts. Target price loses -5c to $14.55. Buy.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $13.05 Difference: $1.5
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Following this week's September quarter release by Viva Energy showing a steep fall in the Geelong refinery margin, Ord Minnett still expects earnings will stabilise and then increase materially.

Earnings (EBITDA) guidance for the Convenience and Mobility division (C&M) missed the consensus forecast by -15%, notes the broker. Also, the run-rate fell -5% short of that required to meet 2H market expectations for the Commercial and Industrial (C&I) business.

The target for Viva Energy slips to $3.60 from $3.70. Buy.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.97
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 35.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes West African Resources is on track to meet 2024 guidance post the pre-release of its September quarter results

The company confirmed it is tracking at the upper end of production guidance, the broker notes year-to-date production is at 78% of 2024 mid-point guidance.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecast for 2024 by -1% and lifts EPS estimate for 2025 by 4%.

West African Resources has an Outperform rating with a $2 target price.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.315
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WAF as Buy (1) -

Following a review of yesterday's 3Q activities report for West African Resources, Ord Minnett raises its target to $2.10 from $2.05 and maintains a Buy rating.

The broker reiterates the investment case revolves around the successful delivery of the company's Kiaka project in Burkina Faso.

The extent to which the sovereign discount will diminish once the project transitions from growth to paying dividends is important, explains the analyst.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.415
If WAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers the consumer with expectations tax cuts have alleviated some of the "cumulative" pressures on household budgets. 

August sales picked up, but the analyst believes consumers are seeking to save more. The broker prefers consumer staple stocks over consumer discretionary stocks on valuation grounds, with a potential for "higher-for-longer" interest rates to underpin an Underweight view on discretionary.

Morgan Stanley highlights Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Wesfarmers are less likely to return capital as their balance sheets remain geared at net/debt equity around 16% and 47%, respectively.

Underweight rating. Target price lifts to $60.70 from $55.70.Industry view: In line.

Target price is $60.70 Current Price is $69.77 Difference: minus $9.07 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.17, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses Worley ahead of the Nov 20 AGM, highlighting FY25 guidance should be restated at the meeting with a net profit split of 45:55 for 1H25 versus 2H25.

Management noted a difficult macro backdrop at the August results with both geopolitics and US election risk factors for the company. The broker forecasts growth in revenue of 5% in FY25 against double-digit underlying growth in FY23/FY24.

EBITDA guidance for FY25 sits at low double digits which is viewed as positive by Macquarie given the headwinds.

Outperform rating and no change to $17.92 target price with the stock trading at a discount of -4% relative to peers.

Target price is $17.92 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: $3.67
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.26, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources