Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -

While Life360 has a "good" track record of beating guidance and Bell Potter believes that, after setting expectations relatively low for the first quarter, there is a chance of a small beat, it is unlikely there will be any upgrade to 2026 guidance.

The broker removes the EV/revenue valuation from its target calculation, given the market focus is now on earnings and cash flow as well as a reasonable level of forecast earnings.

The net result is a -6% decrease in the target to $37.75 from $40.00. This is still around double the share price so a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $37.75 Current Price is $19.42 Difference: $18.33
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.74, suggesting upside of 61.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses exposure to aluminium price scenarios for relevant stocks under coverage amid Middle East conflict risks, identifying Alcoa as the highest-conviction play.

Using price assumptions of circa US$375/t for alumina and US$1.50/lb for aluminium, the broker considers Alcoa and Rio Tinto fairly valued, while South32 appears undervalued given its copper exposure.

It's noted sensitivity to aluminium prices remains modest for South 32 and Rio, with fair value rising around 1-2% for every 10% increase in price forecasts.

In contrast, pure-play Alcoa exhibits significantly higher leverage, with fair value potentially increasing by more than 20% for the same move in aluminium prices, UBS explains.

The $95 target and Neutral rating are maintained for Alcoa.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $78.79 Difference: $16.21
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Citi notes February gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth strengthened against a weather-impacted prior period, with broadly steady game performance across key titles.

Licensed titles continue to weaken, the broker explains, while overall operating trends remain supportive for major suppliers.

The broker highlights a stable performance for Aristocrat Leisure despite moderation in some segments.

Sentiment risks persist from AI concerns and fuel price pressures, though valuations remain attractive, the analyst suggests.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $65 target.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $45.61 Difference: $19.39
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.31, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the risks for both earnings downgrades and trading multiple de-ratings are increasing for the banks. The broker moves its industry view on Australian banks to Cautious.

While major banks had a "good" reporting season in February, recent developments could shift operating conditions, Morgan Stanley adds. Trading multiples remain elevated and consensus estimates assume earnings drivers remain favourable.

ANZ Bank is the broker's preferred stock among the majors and an Overweight rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $37.80 from $41.30. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $37.80 Current Price is $36.45 Difference: $1.35
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.96, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett points out uranium miners have been the losers in the energy sector from the Gulf conflict, as fuel and acid are key production imports.

The share price of Boss Energy has dropped -22% since the start of March, the broker observes, with the market ignoring the presentation on March 23 that implied hydro modelling supported management's new strategic plan.

In terms of key supplies, acid is secure as it comes from the Port Pirie lead smelter. The rising price of diesel and poly pipes --the latter's cost is tied to spot oil-- will have an impact on the company's costs.

Sell rating and $1.50 target maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.015
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the risks for both earnings downgrades and trading multiple de-ratings are increasing for the banks. The broker moves its industry view on Australian banks to Cautious.

While major banks had a "good" reporting season in February, recent developments could shift operating conditions, Morgan Stanley adds. Trading multiples remain elevated and consensus estimates assume earnings drivers remain favourable.

CommBank is the broker's least preferred of the four majors and an Underweight rating is retained. Target is reduced to $131.20 from $140.00. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $131.20 Current Price is $171.12 Difference: minus $39.92 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.58, suggesting downside of -25.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CIP as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term, although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

Morgans downgrades Centuria Industrial REIT to Hold from Accumulate and reduces its target to $3.05 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.09
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Following on from the summary of yesterday's research by Citi on Collins Foods (see below), the broker's rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

The target is reduced by -19% to $10.45 due to a slower Australian growth assumption and valuation changes.

Citi views Collins Foods' German acquisition, announced on March 11, as a supportive platform for longer-term growth and a positive catalyst.

Separately, the analysts note risks are rising for the Australian KFC franchise, given pressure on core consumers from higher interest rates and petrol prices.

The broker highlights quick service restaurants (QSR) did not benefit from trade-down in the prior tightening cycle, and a similar outcome is expected this time.

Target price is $10.45 Current Price is $9.11 Difference: $1.34
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights Cochlear’s recent share price weakness as an opportunity, with the next-generation cochlear implant platform Nexa expected to support a solid earnings recovery over the next 12 months.

The business remains relatively insulated from macroeconomic pressures, the analysts highlight, including the recent oil shock.

The broker notes limited competitive threat from Swiss company Sonova Holding AG in cochlear implants, with Nexa’s technology and form factor expected to drive share gains.

Emerging risks such as gene therapies are seen long-dated and unlikely to impact the market in the near term.

Buy rating and $302 target maintained.

Target price is $302.00 Current Price is $161.38 Difference: $140.62
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $233.57, suggesting upside of 41.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett has rejigged its investment view on Computershare given increased inflation expectations and higher bond yields as a result of the Middle East war.

Interest rates are a swing factor for the company as it earns through client balances so rising rates boost earnings.

Yet, the broker notes almost half of its exposure is hedged, which means only a third of client balances have a direct exposure to interest rates, and there is the negative impact that rising interest rates have on operating earnings.

Ord Minnett finds value in the stock, but because of the risks around the outlook in an unstable geopolitical and economic environment, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is $36.75.

Target price is $36.75 Current Price is $28.39 Difference: $8.36
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.61, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DBI as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie highlights Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's earnings stability, underpinned by take-or-pay contracts that insulate revenue from diesel shortages.

Inflation-linked pricing and exposure to higher bond yields are seen as supporting near-term earnings and cash flow growth.

Commentary notes favourable bond resets with hedged debt enhancing earnings visibility, while growth remains supported regardless of expansion timing.

In short, the valuation is attractive, in Macquarie's view, with strong yield and growth outlook, supported by inflation and bond tailwinds. Target eases to $5.39 from $5.45. The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.5
If DBI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.58, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term, although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

Morgans downgrades Dexus Convenience Retail REIT to Hold from Accumulate and reduces its target to $2.50 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If DXC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXI as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term, although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

Morgans downgrades Dexus Industria REIT to Hold from Accumulate and reduces its target to $2.25 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If DXI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes higher fuel prices following the Iranian conflict have lifted respective costs by around 15% and 6% for direct shipping ore and concentrate producers in the iron ore space.

Offsetting pricing impacts from higher freight and fuel costs are supporting margins, explains the analyst, particularly for tier-one producers.

The broker highlights energy substitution is emerging as a viable strategy to improve long-term margins, with Fortescue leading early adoption.

Unchanged $22 target and Neutral rating.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.69 Difference: $2.31
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDF as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term, although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

Morgans downgrades Garda Property to Hold from Accumulate and reduces its target to $1.00 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If GDF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GGP as Neutral (3) -

Citi values Greatland Resources' O’Callaghans tungsten deposit at $732m, representing around 8% of group net asset value (NAV).

This asset is globally significant, highlights the analyst, ranking among the best ex-China deposits given its scale and grade. It's noted tungsten is widely used in defence applications.

The broker notes tungsten prices have risen sharply, driven by critical mineral demand and China’s dominant supply position.

Upside potential is not seen as reflected in market or consensus estimates, with a potential asset sale providing a catalyst.

Target $15.30. Neutral.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $5.91
If GGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.67, suggesting upside of 51.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GMG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term, although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

Morgans upgrades Goodman Group to Buy from Accumulate and reduces its target to $32.45 from $36.05.

Target price is $32.45 Current Price is $25.36 Difference: $7.09
If GMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.55, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

GPT Group's Accumulate rating is retained and the broker's target is reduced to $5.20 from $5.80.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.66
If GPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term, although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

Morgans downgrades HomeCo Daily Needs REIT to Hold from Accumulate and reduces its target to $1.25 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.07
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

UBS makes minor forecast revisions for Insurance Australia Group, lowering FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates by -0.6% and -2.7%, respectively. Changes reflect a weaker New Zealand dollar and higher minority interest margins over the medium term.

The broker notes its valuation is also impacted by a lower market PE multiple, contributing to the new price target of $8.55, down from $9.00. Unchanged Buy rating.

Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group have lost market share in Home and Motor to challengers, observe the analysts, declining to 48% in FY25 from 60% in FY15.

Challengers are now matching margins while sustaining stronger growth, aided by cross-subsidies within major pricing structures, explains UBS. AI-driven pricing is seen as increasing competition, requiring majors to refine underwriting and pricing strategies.

Upside potential, the analysts note, includes a 10% gross written premium (GW)P uplift by FY30 and 20% by FY35 if cross-subsidies are addressed.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: $1.21
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.11, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Citi notes February gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth strengthened against a weather-impacted prior period, with broadly steady game performance across key titles.

Licensed titles continue to weaken, the broker explains, while overall operating trends remain supportive for major suppliers.

The broker highlights a stable performance for Light & Wonder despite moderation in some segments.

Sentiment risks persist from AI concerns and fuel price pressures, though valuations remain attractive, the analyst suggests.

Citi retains a Buy rating and $160 target.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $117.00 Difference: $43
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $202.50, suggesting upside of 63.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett points out uranium miners have been the losers in the energy sector from the Gulf conflict, as fuel and acid are key production imports.

Lotus Resources has been hit hardest, likely because its diesel supply appears most exposed to a protracted conflict.

The broker maintains a Speculative Buy rating and $3.90 target at this point but warns of the pressure on the business, noting since the start of March the share price has almost halved.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $2.695
If LOT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 224% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 159.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MYR as Overweight (1) -

Sales growth at Myer in the first seven weeks of the second half was 1.7% comprising of retail up 2.2% and apparel brands down -0.4%.

Morgan Stanley notes ongoing strength in Just Jeans was offset by other brands' weakness.

The trading update was softer than the broker expected, while guidance has been maintained for costs. The new marketplace platform is on track for launch in May with expanded product offerings.

Target is $0.57. Overweight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.28
If MYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the risks for both earnings downgrades and trading multiple de-ratings are increasing for the banks.

The broker moves its industry view on Australian banks to Cautious and downgrades National Australia Bank to Underweight from Equal weight.

While major banks had a "good" reporting season in February, recent developments could shift operating conditions, Morgan Stanley adds.

Trading multiples remain elevated and consensus estimates assume earnings drivers remain favourable.

National Australia Bank's share price is up more than 5% so far this year and it is trading on very full multiples, commentary suggests.

National Australia Bank is considered the most vulnerable of the major banks to a shift in operating conditions. Target is reduced to $39.80 from $43.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $42.75 Difference: minus $2.95 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.22, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses exposure to aluminium price scenarios for relevant stocks under coverage amid Middle East conflict risks, identifying Alcoa as the highest-conviction play.

Using price assumptions of circa US$375/t for alumina and US$1.50/lb for aluminium, the broker considers Alcoa and Rio Tinto fairly valued, while South32 appears undervalued given its copper exposure.

It's noted sensitivity to aluminium prices remains modest for South 32 and Rio, with fair value rising around 1-2% for every 10% increase in price forecasts.

In contrast, pure-play Alcoa exhibits significantly higher leverage, with fair value potentially increasing by more than 20% for the same move in aluminium prices, UBS explains.

The $160 target and Neutral rating are maintained for Rio Tinto. This company's earnings are respectively split across Iron Ore/Aluminium/Copper to the tune of 45%, 25% and 30%, the broker highlights.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $147.56 Difference: $12.44
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $153.33, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses exposure to aluminium price scenarios for relevant stocks under coverage amid Middle East conflict risks, identifying Alcoa as the highest-conviction play.

Using price assumptions of circa US$375/t for alumina and US$1.50/lb for aluminium, the broker considers Alcoa and Rio Tinto fairly valued, while South32 appears undervalued given its copper exposure.

It's noted sensitivity to aluminium prices remains modest for South 32 and Rio, with fair value rising around 1-2% for every 10% increase in price forecasts.

In contrast, pure-play Alcoa exhibits significantly higher leverage, with fair value potentially increasing by more than 20% for the same move in aluminium prices, UBS explains.

The $5.20 target and Buy rating are maintained for South32. This company's earnings are respectively split across Alumina & Aluminium/Manganese/Other Metals to the tune of 40%, 10% and 50%, the broker highlights.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $1.27
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

UBS raises its FY26 EPS forecast for Suncorp Group by 2.5% to reflect lower catastrophe costs, supported by benign events and increased reinsurance protection. The FY27 estimate is trimmed by -0.3%.

The broker makes modest outer-year downgrades to reflect a weaker New Zealand dollar alongside a lower market PE multiple impacting valuation. Target falls to $19 from $19.95. Buy rating maintained.

Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group have lost market share in Home and Motor to challengers, observe the analysts, declining to 48% in FY25 from 60% in FY15.

Challengers are now matching margins while sustaining stronger growth, aided by cross-subsidies within major pricing structures, explains UBS. AI-driven pricing is seen as increasing competition, requiring majors to refine underwriting and pricing strategies.

Upside potential, the analysts note, includes a 10% gross written premium (GW)P uplift by FY30 and 20% by FY35 if cross-subsidies are addressed.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.48 Difference: $2.52
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.54, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Accumulate (2) -

Telstra Group has indicated it will raise prices on almost all of its post-paid and prepaid mobile phone plans from May 5 and cease sales of its non-advertised 5GB starter plan to new customers from the same date.

Ord Minnett considers the scale of the changes largely consistent with expectations, supporting the company's target of generating operating earnings growth of $300m per annum. Accumulate rating and $5.50 target retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $0.16
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes Telstra Group's earlier-than-expected mobile price increases are likely to support average revenue per user (ARPU) growth, offsetting softer subscriber trends.

It's felt higher pricing can be absorbed by consumers, though churn may accelerate earlier than expected amid competitive pressures.

Commentary highlights mature market conditions are constraining subscriber growth, with Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) competition driving weaker net additions.

The broker's earnings outlook remains broadly unchanged as ARPU gains offset lower volumes, with modest free cash flow (FCF) upgrades supporting valuation.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $5.30 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TUA as Buy (1) -

In a first glance Citi notes mobile subscriber growth accelerated in the second quarter for Tuas, which reported underlying EBITDA of $42m that was ahead of expectations.

The 'beat' was driven by stronger revenue that was partially offset by lower-than-expected gross margin.

The company has reiterated capital expenditure for FY26 of -$50-55m with the first half coming in at -$19m. No other guidance was provided.

The broker also notes limited commentary on the M1 transaction other than to mention engagement with IMDA is ongoing.

Citi envisages potential for the share price to outperform and a Buy rating and target of $9.95 are maintained.

Post the conference call with Tuas management, Citi notes first-half subscriber acceleration partly reflects a temporary boost from M1 deal-related brand awareness. Nonetheless, the broker feels second-half momentum is continuing.

Management noted the M1 deal announcement has boosted consumer awareness and confidence in the Simba brand.

The analysts explain cost pressures lifted network and hardware expenses.

Middle East disruption has not affected trading momentum, the broker notes, and second-half capex may retain some flexibility.

Product enhancements, including broader roaming and data plans, plus strong Ookla rankings (rated the fastest download and most reliable internet speed are expected to support further mobile and broadband growth. 

Regulatory approval for the M1 deal remains the key catalyst, suggests Citi.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $3.96
If TUA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEE as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

First half results from Veem underwhelmed Ord Minnett, having issued two major downgrades and a write-down. The broker now believes the stock has hit its nadir and is turning the corner.

FY26-FY28 earnings estimates are significantly reduced and the target is lowered to $0.90 from $1.20 yet the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold given a -55% valuation discount.

The broker remains of the view this business has significant submarine, propeller and defence capabilities which will be highly sought after as global defence budgets increase dramatically over the next decade.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.32
If VEE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the risks for both earnings downgrades and trading multiple de-ratings are increasing for the banks. The broker moves its industry view on Australian banks to Cautious.

While major banks had a "good" reporting season in February, recent developments could shift operating conditions, Morgan Stanley adds. Trading multiples remain elevated and consensus estimates assume earnings drivers remain favourable.

Westpac's Underweight rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $34.40 from $35.70. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $39.72 Difference: minus $5.32 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.50, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPR as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Morgans observes A-REITs delivered largely in line with expectations in what was a "relatively benign" reporting season.

Yet, this is in contrast to the share price performance where the ASX200 A-REIT sector is down -19% over the past six months versus a relatively flat ASX200.

Higher interest rates provide a challenge to the sector over the short to medium term, although the broker believes the recent share price reactions are overdone and give investors a chance to buy into high-quality names that will be first to benefit once inflation expectations moderate.

Morgans downgrades Waypoint REIT to Hold from Accumulate and reduces its target to $2.45 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If WPR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources