Australian Broker Call
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December 13, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
FPH - | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
Overnight Price: $1.48
Ord Minnett rates AOF as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett likes the healthy 10% premium to June book value achieved for the sale of 2 Eden park drive in Macquarie Park, one of Australian Unity Office Fund's better assets.
The analyst feels this sale, in conjunction with last month's sale of 30 Pirrie Steet Adelaide, improves upside risk for the REIT, given the market is now implying a greater than -30% discount for the remaining portfolio.
The Hold rating and $1.78 target are unchanged.
Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.3
If AOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
APM APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Healthcare
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Overnight Price: $2.58
Credit Suisse rates APM as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse is anticipating APM Human Services International's earnings will be significantly second half weighted, off the back of a disrupted first half amid the ramp up of Workforce Australia.
The broker forecasts net profits of $80m in the first half and $105m in the second half, with the second half also benefiting not only from the Workforce Australia ramp up, but also a full six month contribution from the Equus acquisition and the DES reshuffle.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.00 from $4.30.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $1.42
If APM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.08 cents and EPS of 20.16 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.12 cents and EPS of 24.23 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates APM as Buy (1) -
The UK Restart program looks likely to assist less participants, but at a higher cost per candidate to the government, in what UBS considers a minor negative to its outlook for APM Human Services International's FY23 and FY23.
The broker explains lower volumes have been driven by lower unemployment than originally forecast.
Despite this, the broker sees a pipeline of positive catalysts over the remainder of the fiscal year. UBS expects APM Human Services International can do better than 18% market share in the DES reshuffle given its market leading position.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.75 from $3.95.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $1.17
If APM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 25.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $22.52
Ord Minnett rates AUB as Buy (1) -
While overall FY23 guidance is unchanged, AUB Group provided more detail on the 1H:2H split for earnings.
The more detailed guidance is broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations, apart from a new expectation for greater seasonality at the Tysers business.
The broker retains its Buy rating and $26 target price.
Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.52 Difference: $3.48
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.1, implying annual growth of 6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.1, implying annual growth of 13.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.13
Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -
Bellevue Gold has completed a $60m institutional placement and is raising a further $10m via a share purchase plan, with funds partially intended to accelerate underground development ahead of first gold which Macquarie expects will de-risk the project.
An additional $10m is allocated to fast tracking the Tribune mining front, while remaining funds will be used for exploration and drilling. The capital raising drives an increase in corporate cost estimates to $12m per annnum, from a previous $8m, while earnings are adjusted -4% and 5% for FY24 and FY25 respectively.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.40 from $1.20.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.27
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.20
Morgans rates CIP as Hold (3) -
Asset revaluations at Centuria Industrial REIT as at December have resulted in cap rate expansion of 47bps, largely offset by rental growth, explains Morgans.
Management reiterated FY23 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) of 17.6cpu and a DPS of 16cpu.
The REIT has formed a partnership to acquire a 50% interest in eight properties owned by Centuria Industrial REIT and proceeds will be used to reduce debt.
The Hold rating is unchanged, while the target eases to $3.31 from $3.40.
Target price is $3.31 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.11
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of -72.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $206.58
Morgan Stanley rates COH as Underweight (5) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For Cochlear, the analysts see growth now better than in FY13 and a quality business. However, an Underweight rating is retained due to a high multiple and the risk of delayed surgeries. The $190 target is unchanged. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $206.58 Difference: minus $16.58 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $215.78, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 326.40 cents and EPS of 458.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 456.4, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 321.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 370.30 cents and EPS of 520.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 517.0, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 362.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $298.20
Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For CSL, the analysts see growth now better than in FY13, as well as potential EPS upside from a plasma recovery, Vifor upside and new product launches.
The target rises to $337 from $327. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $337.00 Current Price is $298.20 Difference: $38.8
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $328.70, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 457.41 cents and EPS of 781.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 810.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 376.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 595.64 cents and EPS of 975.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1013.3, implying annual growth of 25.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 463.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $21.50
Morgan Stanley rates FPH as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks such as CSL, where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight following a 20% rally in share price over the last month after reporting 1H results. The target of NZ$22.90 is unchanged.
Current Price is $21.50. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $21.50, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.68 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 63.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.26 cents and EPS of 44.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.7, implying annual growth of 36.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.32
Morgans rates HDN as Add (1) -
HomeCo Daily Needs REIT has reaffirmed FY23 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) of 8.6cpu and DPS of 8.3cpu.
Morgans lowers its target to $1.52 from $1.56 after incorporating into its forecasts the acquisition of a new asset in Perth for $92.5m and the launch of the unlisted Last Mile Logistics fund. The REIT will commit -$50m in seed funding.
The broker also assumes some asset sales over FY23/24 after management flagged the potential to divest some Large Format Retail centres. Add.
Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.2
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IDX INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $2.92
Morgan Stanley rates IDX as Equal-weight (3) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks such as CSL, where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For Integral Diagnostics, Morgan Stanley lowers its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by -19.3%, -10.7% and -1.8%, respectively, based on a read across from Medicare data and the trading update provided at the November 4 AGM.
The target falls to $2.86 from $3.00. Equal-weight. Industry view In-Line.
Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If IDX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 11.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 66.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 15.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 29.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.95
Morgan Stanley rates MVF as Overweight (1) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks such as CSL, where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For Monash IVF, Morgan Stanley raises its FY23-25 EPS estimates by 12.7%, 14% and 13.6%, respectively, based on a read across from Medicare data and FY23 profit guidance provided at the November 11 AGM.
The target rises to $1.25 from $1.15. Overweight. Industry view In-Line.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.305
If MVF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of 29.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 16.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.17
Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For nib Holdings, Morgan Stanley lowers its price target to $7.15 from $7.50 mostly due to the increased share count associated with acquisition of Maple Plan. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $7.17 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.58, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.40 cents and EPS of 40.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of 42.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 42.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $8.47
Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -
Pinnacle Investment Management has warned that its net share of first half performance fees could be less than $1m, a decline from the $6.4m in the previous year and a sizeable miss to Macquarie's expected $4.6m.
According to the broker fees were impacted by a tougher exit point, and Macquarie has applied a discount to historical performance fee contributions through to FY25 as a result but with minimal impact on earnings forecasts.
The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $11.20 from $11.31.
Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $8.47 Difference: $2.73
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.41, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 33.40 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.30 cents and EPS of 44.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -
Pinnacle Investment Management has guided to performance fees of less than $1m. While management noted several affiliates have outperformed relative benchmarks during the 1H, they remain below high water marks.
The investment management firm expects a 2H skew for performance fees. However, Morgans decides to lower its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by -10%, -6% and -4.3%, respectively, on earnings revisions and an increase in the assumed risk-free rate.
The broker remains positive on the longer-term prospects for Pinnacle Investment Management. Add. Target falls to $10.95 from $12.40.
Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $8.47 Difference: $2.48
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.41, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $65.61
Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Underweight (5) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For Ramsay Health Care, the analysts see growth now better than in FY13, though current growth is now inflated by a depressed EPS profile in the pandemic, and will fall short of reaching 2019 levels.
The analysts retain an Underweight rating and the target price is lowered to $62.10 from $64.40. It's felt the base business is recovering. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $62.10 Current Price is $65.61 Difference: minus $3.51 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $66.78, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 183.00 cents and EPS of 195.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 179.9, implying annual growth of 54.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 149.00 cents and EPS of 257.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 253.0, implying annual growth of 40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $116.35
Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -
Rio Tinto has secured approval from Turquoise Hill Resources' minority shareholders in support of its CAD43.00 per share takeover bid. Macquarie highlights completion of the offer is expected before the end of 2022, subject to satisfaction of closing conditions.
Macquarie has incorporated Turquoise Hill's earnings into estimates, but with contributions from the Oyu Tolgoi asset already included impacts are minimal.
The Neutral rating and target price of $115.00 are retained.
Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $116.35 Difference: minus $1.35 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $107.86, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 656.15 cents and EPS of 1207.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1228.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 685.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 798.97 cents and EPS of 1195.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1065.8, implying annual growth of -13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 679.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.65
Credit Suisse rates SBM as Neutral (3) -
St. Barbara and Genesis Minerals have agreed to a premium merger that will eventuate in the creation of Hoover House. Credit Suisse highlights the new entity will be run by Genesis Minerals' management team, and be focused on the Leonora gold project.
St. Barbara's non-Leonora assets, which includes its Simberi and Atlantic projects, will be demerged and formed into Phoenician Metals, to be run by St. Barbara's management.
Credit Suisse has refrained from changing forecasts until these changes are effective. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.25 from $0.55.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.6
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting upside of 33.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $30.16
Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -
According to Morgan Stanley, healthcare stocks appear expensive relative to the last time the Australian 10-year bond yield was at around 4%, in 2013.
The broker identifies stocks such as CSL where the growth outlook is now better than in 2013 and, hence, price earnings multiples may have less downside.
For Sonic Healthcare, the analysts consider the multiple is undemanding and retain an Overweight rating. An improving base business, and balance sheet options are also noted.
The target falls to $35.05/share from $38.60 due to the broker's negative earnings revisions following a read across from the peer group, Medicare data and covid PCR test data. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $35.05 Current Price is $30.16 Difference: $4.89
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.60, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 89.70 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.5, implying annual growth of -47.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 145.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.6, implying annual growth of -8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $1.20
Ord Minnett rates TYR as Buy (1) -
After a period of research restriction, Ord Minnett resumes coverage of Tyro Payments with a Buy rating and sets a $1.60 target price.
Management has ceased takeover discussions with Westpac ((WBC)) and Potentia.
While the broker suggests some caution, given the company's exposure to discretionary expenditure in the current macroeconomic backdrop, underlying momentum heading into 2023 is highlighted.
In reaction to the current macro backdrop, the analyst points out Tyro is adapting by shifting to a more profitable growth model.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.4
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.36
Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Overweight (1) -
After undertaking due diligence on Tyro Payments ((TYR)), Westpac "has decided that submitting an offer is not in the best interests of Westpac shareholders at this time". Morgan Stanley passes little comment on the non-acquisition.
The broker remains Overweight-rated, seeing upside risk to 1H margins and good progress on the Cost Re-set Plan. Signs of improving franchise performance are also noted, along with low investor expectations and supportive trading multiples.
The $24 target is unchanged. Industry view: In line.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.36 Difference: $0.64
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.87, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.8, implying annual growth of 30.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 184.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.7, implying annual growth of -0.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.72
UBS rates ZIP as Sell (5) -
Zip Co has announced a liability management exercise on its $400m zero-coupon senior convertible notes due 2028, inviting existing noteholders to convert their notes into Zip ordinary shares.
While prima facie this appears favourable to ordinary shareholders, UBS is concerned it could infer that convertible note holders do not believe they can recover their principal in full. However this also buys Zip time to demonstrate it can achieve free cash flow profitability in FY24.
If Zip achieves this, UBS expects convertible note holders are likely to demand full repayment of the remaining principal and interest. This would be more dilutive for ordinary shareholders than the current deal, but less dilutionary than if there was no deal.
Sell and 45c target retained.
Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: minus $0.265 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -23.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
APM | APM Human Services International | $2.51 | Credit Suisse | 4.00 | 4.30 | -6.98% |
UBS | 3.75 | 3.95 | -5.06% | |||
BGL | Bellevue Gold | $1.12 | Macquarie | 1.40 | 1.20 | 16.67% |
CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | $3.23 | Morgans | 3.31 | 3.40 | -2.65% |
COH | Cochlear | $207.78 | Morgan Stanley | 190.00 | 202.00 | -5.94% |
CSL | CSL | $295.58 | Morgan Stanley | 337.00 | 327.00 | 3.06% |
HDN | HomeCo Daily Needs REIT | $1.29 | Morgans | 1.52 | 1.56 | -2.56% |
IDX | Integral Diagnostics | $3.09 | Morgan Stanley | 2.86 | 3.00 | -4.67% |
MVF | Monash IVF | $0.97 | Morgan Stanley | 1.25 | 1.15 | 8.70% |
NHF | nib Holdings | $7.23 | Morgan Stanley | 7.15 | 7.50 | -4.67% |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $8.73 | Macquarie | 11.20 | 11.31 | -0.97% |
Morgans | 10.95 | 12.40 | -11.69% | |||
RHC | Ramsay Health Care | $65.63 | Morgan Stanley | 62.10 | 64.40 | -3.57% |
SBM | St. Barbara | $0.65 | Credit Suisse | 1.25 | 0.55 | 127.27% |
SHL | Sonic Healthcare | $30.64 | Morgan Stanley | 35.05 | 38.60 | -9.20% |
TYR | Tyro Payments | $1.46 | Ord Minnett | 1.60 | 1.70 | -5.88% |
Summaries
AOF | Australian Unity Office Fund | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.48 |
APM | APM Human Services International | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.58 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.58 | ||
AUB | AUB Group | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $22.52 |
BGL | Bellevue Gold | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.13 |
CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.20 |
COH | Cochlear | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $206.58 |
CSL | CSL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $298.20 |
FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $21.50 |
HDN | HomeCo Daily Needs REIT | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.32 |
IDX | Integral Diagnostics | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.92 |
MVF | Monash IVF | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.95 |
NHF | nib Holdings | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.17 |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.47 |
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $8.47 | ||
RHC | Ramsay Health Care | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $65.61 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $116.35 |
SBM | St. Barbara | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.65 |
SHL | Sonic Healthcare | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $30.16 |
TYR | Tyro Payments | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.20 |
WBC | Westpac | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $23.36 |
ZIP | Zip Co | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $0.72 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 12 |
3. Hold | 7 |
5. Sell | 3 |
Tuesday 13 December 2022
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