Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Citi reckons Aussie Broadband's focus on FY28 ambitions at Investor Day reinforces its confidence in the near-to-medium term growth outlook.

The company is targeting a doubling in subscribers by FY28 as it capitalises on the virtual mobile network wave in Australia. 

The broker lifted FY25 revenue and EBITDA forecasts slightly, but trimmed FY26-27 EBITDA margin forecasts on higher opex growth.

EPS forecasts increased for FY25-27 on higher earnings plus less shares as a result of the share buyback program.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.96
If ABB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABB as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Aussie Broadband held its investor day with business momentum remaining "solid," with net sub adds of 24k in 3Q25, or growth of 29% on a year earlier, excluding Origin Energy ((ORG)).

Management served up FY28 targets of revenue greater than $1.6bn and NBN connections of 1m, both above consensus estimates, with earnings (EBITDA) margins of at least 12.5%, inferring FY28 earnings (EBITDA) of over $200m.

UBS believes there is multi-year growth in market share growth for the company.

Target price slips to $4.65 from $4.80. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.81
If ABB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

Citi's analysis of 4 Wheel Parts (4WP) and Off Road Warehouse (ORW) foot traffic trends since ARB Corp's acquisition of 4WP pointed to a clearer upward trajectory in 4WP trafiic and a smaller rate of decline compared with ORW.

The broker notes 4WP reached break-even in January, significantly faster than its own expectation it would occur in FY27.

The broker is encouraged with the outlook for both retail segments despite challenging broader conditions in the US, and sees potential for the company to increase sales.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $39.54.

Target price is $39.54 Current Price is $30.33 Difference: $9.21
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.95, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses Boss Energy's 3Q25 update as a strong operational result, with Honeymoon production of 296klbs U308 meeting its forecast, but beating consensus by 10%.

While sales of 150klbs was -18% lower than the broker's estimate, it was mainly a timing issue. The realised price of US$70/lb was 8% ahead of the broker's forecast, which rose further to US$84/lb after accounting for the loaned material repayment by enCore Energy.

The company is expected to meet 850klbs U308 guidance for FY25 despite some commissioning challenges.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.68
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Boss Energy drummed 295.8klbs U308 at Honeymoon project in 2Q25, beating Macquarie's forecast by 7.6%, and is seen as well-placed to beat 850klbs FY25 guidance.

The broker's estimate for FY25 is 912klbs. Cash receipt, including payment from enCore, was US$22.4m, with the balance loan repayment of 100klbs due as cash at the end of June.

The broker notes Alta Mesa is performing well, with 0.7Mlb/year run-rate in March, and IX3 expected to commence in 2026.

FY25 net profit forecast lifted on improved production and interest revenue, and FY26 raised on increased production from Honeymoon and Alta Mesa.

Outperform. Target rises to $4.60 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $1.98
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Boss Energy is expected to report its March quarter update on April 29, with the analyst estimating production of 0.247mlbs and drummed of 0.296mlbs, which are broadly in line to slightly above the broker's estimates.

The analyst points to some challenges around commissioning with the kiln and baghouse (drying/packing), which may continue, but FY25 production guidance of 0.85mlbs is likely to be maintained.

March quarter sales of 0.15mlbs at US$70/lb is flagged, which compares to Morgan Stanley's forecast of 0.2mlbs at US$72.9/lb.

Equal-weight rating retained with a target price of $2.45 unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Boss Energy's 3Q25 production and sales for Honeymoon beat consensus, and the company is on track to meet or exceed the FY25 production guidance of 850klb.

Realised average price was US$84/lb, but that was thanks to enCore repayment done in cash, which pushed up the average price from US$70/lb. The broker reckons the US$70/lb price is close to spot prices, and has adjusted all existing contracts and sales during ramp-up to forecast spot prices.

The broker has modelled 60-70% of sales at term prices from FY26 onward.

Buy. Target cut to $4.50 from $4.70 on lower forecast prices, partly offset by weaker AUD/USD.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $1.88
If BOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley is seeking more details on Bank of Queensland's progress around the group's new strategy at the upcoming 1H25 earnings report.

The analyst will be focusing on the outlook for margins and what is impacting them, as well as run-off in mortgage, business loan growth, cost management, and an update on the "simplification" program.

Management is expected to retain FY25 guidance, including revenue growth of 2.5% and reasonably flat cost growth, with possibly higher loan losses.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating with a $6.20 target price. The sector view remains In-Line.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers the oil price forecast again as OPEC is accelerating further production increases and global oil demand is expected to be weaker, with growth weakening over trade tensions.

The broker has cut the Brent forecast by -US$6/bbl to US$66/bbl in 2025 and by -US$7/bbl to US$65/bbl in 2026, with the long-term target price steady at US$75/bbl.

Santos ((STO)) remains the preferred pure-play, followed by Beach Energy, and Woodside Energy ((WDS)) is the least preferred.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -1% and -10% for 2025/2026, respectively.

Target price lowered to $1.55 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.345
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects near-term headwinds for travel intermediaries, Flight Centre Travel ((FLT)), Corporate Travel Management and Web Travel ((WEB)) due to increased global uncertainty.

The broker believes there are risks around near-term corporate travel demand into what is usually a seasonally strong period in May and June for Corporate Travel and Flight Centre. Longer-term trends remain attractive.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -6.2% and -1% for FY25/FY26, respectively, and the target price is cut to $15.30 from $18.30.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $12.56 Difference: $2.74
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.20, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EBO as Sell (5) -

Ebos Group acquired New Zealand company SVS for $105m upfront plus potential earn-outs, and the transaction closed on March 31.

The company is raising $200m via fully underwritten placement and also plans a retail offer for up to $50m. Additionally, it acquired the balance 10% of Transmedic for $35m.

Citi estimates the net result of all these transactions will be excess cash of $95m, which it reckons will provide capacity for more M&A. The effect on FY26 EPS is a 1-2% accretion, according to the broker.

Sell retained. Target unchanged at $32.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $35.54 Difference: minus $3.54 (current price is over target).
If EBO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.12, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EBO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett expects Ebos Group's latest acquisition of New Zealand company SVS Veterinary Services for NZ$115m plus earn-out payments to add $16m to group EBITDA in FY26.

For FY25, the broker's forecast of $595m is at the top end of the company's guidance.

The broker notes the company is raising $200m via fully underwritten placement and up to a further $50m via retail offer. The net cash increase from all transactions will put it in a good position for further acquisitions.

Accumulate. Target rises to $37.80 from $37.00 on SVS acquisition, partly offset by share dilution.

Target price is $37.80 Current Price is $35.54 Difference: $2.26
If EBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.12, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects near-term headwinds for travel intermediaries, Flight Centre Travel, Corporate Travel Management ((CTD)) and Web Travel ((WEB)) due to increased global uncertainty.

The broker believes there are risks around near-term corporate travel demand into what is usually a seasonally strong period in May and June for Corporate Travel and Flight Centre. Longer-term trends remain attractive.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -3.6% and -7% for FY25/FY26, respectively, and the target price is cut to $16.60 from $21.50.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $13.19 Difference: $3.41
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.96, suggesting upside of 56.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HMC as Buy (1) -

Post HMC Capital's first investor day, Bell Potter reviews some of the key earnings forecast assumptions.

Notably, DigiCo Infrastructure REIT's ((DGT)) poor performance has impacted the mark-to-market stake for HMC, while there is an expected distribution of $300m (around $150m for HMC Capital) from private equity/fund raising from CP-1 before the restructuring, the analyst explains.

Management remains confident in the fundraising for the $2bn Energy Transition fund including $100m from HMC, while the balance sheet is expected to have around $575m in undrawn available cash, which should mitigate fund funding for Healthscope and HealthCo REIT ((HCW)).

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -18.7% for FY25 and -16% for FY26 with unchanged dividend per share estimates.

Buy rating reaffirmed. Target price cut to $8.15 from $12.90.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $3.21
If HMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 82.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

During the current market volatility Ord Minnett reminds investors platform operators like Hub24, Netwealth Group, and Praemium should be viewed as market cyclicals.

Fund flows, funds under administration metrics, and valuation multiples are all closely tied to broader market sentiment, highlights the broker.

For Hub24, the broker suggests FY25 and FY26 price-to-earnings multiples of circa 50x times or more are unsustainably high.

Ord Minnett's target falls to $43.20 from $84.00 and the rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold following following a transfer of analyst coverage and a mark-to-market analysis.

Target price is $43.20 Current Price is $64.21 Difference: minus $21.01 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.88, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Maintenance at Karoon Energy's Bauna project in Brazil took less time than expected, and SPS-88 is back online, contributing 2.8kb/day.

Macquarie raised the FY25 EPS forecast by 7.8% to reflect shorter maintenance time and higher production. FY26-27 EPS was also lifted by 11.2% and 10.0%.

The broker highlighted the company's largely unhedged oil exposure is looking risky amid oil price weakness.

Target price cut to $2.00 from $2.10 as the broker cut growth projects in the outlook on uncertain oil price backdrop.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.715
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 76.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Buy (1) -

Citi observes a net recovery in land lease sales for Lifestyle Communities in 3Q25, with 50 net sales more than twice the 2Q.

The broker expects further recovery in 1H26 on rising demand in the Melbourne market, which is indicated by pricing recovery. This would support earnings recovery with further upside from likely rate cuts.

The key uncertainty, however, remains on the VCAT ruling on the deferred management fee front. The REIT is considered a potential takeover target in media reports.

Buy. Target cut to $9.00 from $9.70.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.34 Difference: $1.66
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.40, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LTR as Hold (3) -

Should lithium prices remain around US$800/t or fall further, Morgans warns balance sheet pressure could emerge for Liontown Resources, based on its scenario analysis.

The broker retains its long-term spodumene price forecast of US$1,300/t but has downgraded near-term pricing across FY26-28, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the timing of a lithium recovery.

While underlying demand remains solid, the analyst notes the supply glut persists, with additional volumes entering the market from China and Africa over the past six months.

Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Morgans continues to favour companies with robust balance sheets, low operating costs, and minimal capital intensity.

At price levels of US$750/t or below, Liontown Resources' net debt to earnings (EBITDA) ratio would reach unsustainable multiples, placing the company at risk of financial distress, highlights the broker.

The target falls to 49 cents from 66 cents. Hold.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter's forecasts for Lynas Rare Earths' 3Q25 production and average realised price are in line with consensus, and so are production and sales forecasts for FY26 and FY27.

However, valuation is an issue with the broker noting an average NdPr price of US$65/kg over FY26 and average EV/EBITDA multiple over the past five years results in a valuation of $3.75/share. 

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -42% and FY26 by -19%. The broker doesn't see balance sheet risk under its commodity price forecasts but warns it could draw attention if NdPr prices don't recover.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target cut to $6.50 from $7.30.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGH as Resume at Outperform (1) -

After a period of restriction, Macquarie has resumed coverage of Maas Group with an Outperform rating and target price of $4.95.

The broker notes the company has extended the reach of the construction materials segment via acquisitions, which is its key growth driver, and plans to pursue M&A. At the same time, capital recycling is expected to see lower-than-expected leverage in FY26.

The analyst is forecasting FY25 EBITDA at $216m, at the low end of the guidance of $215-245m, given the impact of wet weather and renewable project delays.

Upside risk is a faster ramp-up of renewable projects and plant utilisation, plus capital recycling initiatives in both residential and commercial real estate.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $1.09
If MGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Should lithium prices remain around US$800/t or fall further, Morgans warns balance sheet pressure could emerge for Mineral Resources, based on the broker's scenario analysis.

The broker retains its long-term spodumene price forecast of US$1,300/t but has downgraded near-term pricing across FY26-28, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the timing of a lithium recovery.

While underlying demand remains solid, the analyst notes the supply glut persists, with additional volumes entering the market from China and Africa over the past six months.

Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Morgans continues to favour companies with robust balance sheets, low operating costs, and minimal capital intensity.

Morgans notes Mineral Resources is heavily leveraged to iron ore price movements over the next three financial years compared to lithium price movements.

Lower iron ore shipments and lower mining services volumes in Q3 of FY25 are forecast due to the impacts of weather and haul road interruptions.

The target falls to $18 from $26. Hold.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $0.99
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.23, suggesting upside of 70.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes Netwealth Group's 3Q25 update was overall positive, with net fund flow of $3.509bn in line with expectations as inflows rose and outflows slowed.

Funds under administration rose 2.4% q/q to $103.3bn, with the -1% negative impact from market weakness better than expected, reflecting diversified asset allocation.

The company expects strong net inflows in the seasonally-strong 4Q25 and is already seeing evidence of it.

The broker lifted FY26-27 EPS forecsast by 1%. Hold. Target rises to $26.40 from $25.80.

Target price is $26.40 Current Price is $26.36 Difference: $0.04
If NWL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.25, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Netwealth Group's 3Q25 funds under administration beat Citi's forecast by 1%, thanks to higher net inflows and lower-than-expected negative impact from market weakness.

The broker notes net inflows are continuing in April, leading to an upgrade in 4Q net flow to $3.7bn, up 7% q/q. Cost estimates were also lifted for FY26 after noting the company's comment the level of investment will continue in FY26.

Buy. Target lifted to $27.30 from $26.50.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $26.36 Difference: $0.94
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.25, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate (4) -

During the current market volatility Ord Minnett reminds investors platform operators like Hub24, Netwealth Group, and Praemium should be viewed as market cyclicals.

Fund flows, funds under administration metrics, and valuation multiples are all closely tied to broader market sentiment, highlights the broker.

For Netwealth Group, the broker suggests FY25 and FY26 price-to-earnings multiples of circa 50x times or more are unsustainably high.

Ord Minnett's target falls to $15.40 from $33.00 and the rating is downgraded to Lighten from Accumulate following following a transfer of analyst coverage and a mark-to-market analysis.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $26.36 Difference: minus $10.96 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.25, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes Netwealth Group's strong net flows continued into 3Q25, with custodial flows of $3.5bn, which is a record, the analyst states, for a typically weaker March quarter.

Funds under administration (FUA) rose to $103bn, including around -$1bn in market movements, while FUA grew 22% on a year earlier. The broker makes slight changes to EPS estimates.

No change to Neutral rating for Netwealth Group. Target price moves to $28 from $29 due to a lower valuation ascribed to the stock.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.36 Difference: $1.64
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.25, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley continues to impress on investors that News Corp is a quality media company, with net cash after the sale of Foxtel and highlights Dow Jones is profitable and the growth options are not fully understood.

The analyst explains Dow Jones will generate around 30% of group revenue and circa 40% of earnings (EBITDA) in FY26, making it second to only REA Group/Move Inc. The business is valued at US$12bn or US$21 per share on a stand-alone basis, or some US$4 above consensus.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating with a US$37 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Current Price is $48.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $62.75, suggesting upside of 29.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's analysis suggests investors are undervaluing NextDC as only existing contracts are factored into the price and potential for future contracts is not being considered.

The broker notes the company is adding a further 20MW and 50MW at M2 and M3, respectively, which signals a large contract of up 100MW may be in the offing.

Buy. Target price $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $11.03 Difference: $8.97
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.73, suggesting upside of 83.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers the oil price forecast again as OPEC is accelerating further production increases and global oil demand is expected to be weaker, with growth weakening over trade tensions.

The broker has cut the Brent forecast by -US$6/bbl to US$66/bbl in 2025 and by -US$7/bbl to US$65/bbl in 2026, with the long-term target price steady at US$75/bbl.

Origin Energy remains the preferred exposure in the utility sector, with the company hedging out all its oil-linked gas supply exposure within the Energy Markets division. The oil price exposure is limited to its 27.5% interest in APLNG, or circa 34% of the broker's valuation.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -1% and -10% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price lowered to $11.70 from $11.80. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: $1.58
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.60, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

Should lithium prices remain around US$800/t or fall further, Morgans warns balance sheet pressure could emerge for both Mineral Resources and Liontown Resources, based on its scenario analysis.

Pilbara Minerals is insulated until at least FY28, according to the analyst. In almost every lithium price scenario above US$650/t, the broker forecasts the company will remain in a net cash position up to FY28.

Morgans retains a long-term spodumene price forecast of US$1,300/t but has downgraded near-term pricing across FY26-28, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the timing of a lithium recovery.

While underlying demand remains solid, the analyst notes the supply glut persists, with additional volumes entering the market from China and Africa over the past six months.

Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Morgans continues to favour companies with robust balance sheets, low operating costs, and minimal capital intensity.

For Pilbara Minerals, the target falls to $2.40 from $3.10 after the analyst applies reduced lithium spodumene and lithium hydroxide price forecasts.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.98
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 56.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNR as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Bell Potter raises the target price for Pantoro to $2.40 from $0.14 (effectively unchanged), reflecting a 17:1 share consolidation.

The broker also upgrades its rating to Hold from Sell on recent share price depreciation in the currently volatile environment for global equities and the gold price due to the imposition and part retraction of Trump tariffs.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $2.25
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1500% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNV as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter models a minor impact to PolyNovo from the 10% tariff on exports to the US, expecting a -$0.6m pre-tax effect in 2026, with no impact in 2025 due to existing inventory.

The broker's forecast earnings (EBITDA) are reduced by -3% in 2026 and 2027, with profit lowered by -5% in both years.

Although the earnings impact from tariffs is minimal, the broader analysts note a market re-rating prompts a revision to the broker's valuation, with the price target reduced to $2.00 from $2.80. A Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.935
If PNV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 142.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

During the current market volatility Ord Minnett reminds investors platform operators like Hub24, Netwealth Group, and Praemium should be viewed as market cyclicals.

Fund flows, funds under administration metrics, and valuation multiples are all closely tied to broader market sentiment, highlights the broker.

While the analyst slashes target prices for Hub24 and Netwealth Group (due to unsustainably high multiples) and downgrades their ratings, the 90 cent target for Praemium remains and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation.

While Hub24 and Netwealth are operationally superior businesses, in the broker's view, Praemium is trading on a multiple around half of its larger peers.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.23
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Reliance Worldwide is well-positioned to pass on tariff costs to customers, given its deep knowledge of cost drivers.

The company has US$120m cost of goods exposure to China, and a total 29% group exposure to tariffs that would require 18% price increases in Americas. As a base case, the broker assumes a 95% recovery in its forecasts.

This led to a -6.5% and -4.1% reduction in FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts, respectively. The broker has also accounted for some delay in the recovery of the repair and renovation market segment.

Outperform. Target drops to $5.60 from $5.90.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $1.64
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting upside of 43.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a valuation disconnect between Santana Minerals and key peers, suggesting the company may also present an appealing M&A opportunity.

The broker notes an updated pre-feasibility study (PFS) is expected this quarter and will incorporate improved resource confidence and higher gold prices.

A maiden reserve of 1.18moz was defined in late 2024, with recoveries expected to average 92% and forecast production of 1.15moz over 9.2 years at an average 125koz per annum.

The analysts' 2027 forecast earnings (EBITDA) rise 23%, and EPS by 16%, due to revised pricing assumptions and higher cash following option conversions. 

Bell Potter increases the target to $1.30 from $1.07 and retains a Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.85
If SMI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 189% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers the oil price forecast again as OPEC is accelerating further production increases and global oil demand is expected to be weaker, with growth weakening over trade tensions.

The broker has cut the Brent forecast by -US$6/bbl to US$66/bbl in 2025 and by -US$7/bbl to US$65/bbl in 2026, with the long-term target price steady at US$75/bbl.

Santos remains the preferred pure-play, followed by Beach Energy ((BPT)), and Woodside Energy ((WDS)) is the least preferred.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -14% and -15% for 2025/2026, respectively.

Target price lowered to $7.80 from $8.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: $2.24
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.73, suggesting upside of 40.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

UBS lowers the oil price forecast again as OPEC is accelerating further production increases and global oil demand is expected to be weaker, with growth weakening over trade tensions.

The broker has cut the Brent forecast by -US$6/bbl to US$66/bbl in 2025 and by -US$7/bbl to US$65/bbl in 2026, with the long-term target price steady at US$75/bbl.

Santos ((STO)) remains the preferred pure-play, followed by Beach Energy ((BPT)), and Woodside Energy is the least preferred.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -24% and -28% for 2025/2026, respectively.

Target price lowered to $23.50 from $26.50.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.05 Difference: $3.45
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.27, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley expects near-term headwinds for travel intermediaries, Flight Centre Travel ((FLT)), Corporate Travel Management ((CTD)) and Web Travel due to increased global uncertainty.

The broker believes there are risks around near-term corporate travel demand into what is usually a seasonally strong period in May and June for Corporate Travel and Flight Centre. Longer-term trends remain attractive.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by -0.1% and -3.4% for FY25/FY26, respectively, and the target price is cut to $3.40 from $3.70 and highlights the forecasts are more bearish than consensus due to the structural issues facing Web Travel.

The Underweight rating is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter reduces forecasts for WiseTech Global due to delays in the rollout of its new Container Transport Optimisation product, leading to between -1-4% downgrades to the broker's EPS forecasts over 2025-27.

The analysts' revenue and earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for 2025 of US$795m and US$406.6m remain consistent with company guidance.

Free cash flow generation continues to improve, notes Bell Potter, supported by high gross margins and operating leverage.

The broker cuts its target price to $112.50 from $122.50 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $112.50 Current Price is $85.21 Difference: $27.29
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WZR as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes Wisr is well placed to return to growth in vehicle and personal lending following structural changes during FY24. Coverage is initiated with a Buy High Risk rating and 6 cent target.

The broker highlights the appointment of a new CEO and a fresh corporate debt facility as key turning points enabling Wisr to scale its $35bn vehicle and $14bn personal loan opportunity without compromising credit quality.

Wisr is expected by the analyst to reach break-even on a $1bn loan book in FY26 and generate $25m in cash profit on a $2bn loan book by FY28.

Shaw forecasts further upside into FY29 if the company captures a full year of earnings from its target book size. The broker notes potential valuation uplift if interest rates ease and investor confidence in the non-bank sector improves.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.03
If WZR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources