Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates AMP as Hold (3) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount. No change to rating or price target.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.19
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMS as Add (1) -

In a trading update, Atomos flagged that July 2020 trading has improved 50% on the $2m 2H20 monthly revenue run-rate.

Revenue was in-line with Morgans forecast. The company reiterated its -30% permanent cost-base reductions.

The broker believes the company is well positioned to grow via new product releases and market segment expansion when conditions normalise. Importantly, a materially reset cost base creates the potential to generate solid cash/earnings well above pre-covid-19 levels in time.

Morgans retains its Add rating. The target price is $1.02.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.55
If AMS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 117% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Add (1) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount.

As a result, Morgans now expects ANZ Bank to declare a deferred interim dividend of $0.25cps (70% franked) as part of its scheduled 3Q20 trading update on August 19.

No change to rating or price target.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $18.36 Difference: $2.64
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.65, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BEN as Hold (3) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount.

No change to rating or price target.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: $5.09
If BEN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount.

As a result, Morgans now believes that while it's possible that Bank of Queensland will declare a deferred interim dividend before its FY20 results release on the 14th of October, the analyst assumes the company will just declare a final dividend on the 14th of October of $0.16cps (fully franked).

No change to rating or price target

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $6.15 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.86, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Commonwealth Bank has updated on remediation provisions that affect the second half. These relate to the aligned advice business.

The second half provision is expected to be -$300m pre-tax and Morgan Stanley suspects this includes the previously disclosed third quarter charge of -$135m.

Provisions recognised to date for aligned advisers total -$834m. The broker believes the disclosure is unlikely to influence the investment case.

Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating. Target is $63.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $63.50 Current Price is $73.22 Difference: minus $9.72 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.94, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount.

As a result, Morgans expects Commonwealth Bank to declare a final dividend of $0.34cps (fully franked). No change to rating or price target.

Target price is $67.50 Current Price is $73.22 Difference: minus $5.72 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.94, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CIM as Outperform (1) -

First half results were weaker than Credit Suisse expected although considered well and truly factored into the share price.

No dividend was declared and management continues to assess the impact of the pandemic on its performance.

The company is currently finalising the sale of 50% of Thiess and will use proceeds to fund growth and strengthen the balance sheet.

Credit Suisse also suspects part may be used for further share buybacks. Outperform rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $34 from $35.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $21.74 Difference: $12.26
If CIM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIM as Neutral (3) -

Cimic Group’s first-half net profit was down by -14% versus last year and -3% below Macquarie’s estimate. Revenue and cash flow also disappointed but margins were strong, reports the broker.

Near term focus will be the negotiations with Elliot Advisors regarding the sale of 50% of the Thiess mining business.

The group did not announce an interim dividend. Earnings forecasts for FY20-22 revised down due to the weak first half result.

Macquarie maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $23.20.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $21.74 Difference: $1.46
If CIM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CIM as No Rating (-1) -

First half results were softer than expected as the pandemic restrictions had an impact in several areas.

Still, Ord Minnett notes operating margins expanded and the company acted swiftly to reduce costs.

2020 guidance is for net profit of $810-850m and the broker points out the company has neither updated nor withdrawn guidance since the outbreak of coronavirus.

Ord Minnett is currently unable to provide a rating or target.

Current Price is $21.74. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CIM as Neutral (3) -

Cimic Group reported a first-half operating income decline of -6%. This was also -7% below UBS's estimate. Lower than expected revenues in the construction and services businesses drove this miss, states the broker.

The group has not provided any formal guidance but expects a positive outlook for its core markets.

The broker forecasts a 2020 net profit of $665m, -17% below last year's numbers. Lower activity is expected in the construction and services divisions while mining is likely to see a modest decline in operating income.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $23 from $25.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.74 Difference: $1.26
If CIM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.73, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Leading into the Northern Hemisphere flu season, UBS considers CSL flu vaccine demand outlook to be strong, a conclusion drawn from competitor Sanofi's latest market update.

UBS expects flu vaccine awareness and demand in the US to increase due to risks of covid-19 co-infection. Other regions like Europe too are also likely to spend more on flu vaccination.

For Seqirus, UBS expects 9% revenue growth (for the Northern Hemisphere) in the first half of FY21. The broker thinks Seqirus has the ability to ramp up flu vaccine production and is awaiting CSL's FY20 results for more clarity.

UBS retains its Buy rating with a target price of $331.

Target price is $331.00 Current Price is $274.45 Difference: $56.55
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $307.60, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley examines the recent speculation that the sale of Right2Drive could be a catalyst for consolidation.

The broker suspects that, while Steadfast Group ((SGF)) could realise higher potential synergies compared with McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS)), any deal would be dilutive for the former and neutral for the latter.

It would also be a big step for Smartgroup ((SIQ)). Therefore, the broker assesses McMillan Shakespeare remains best positioned on a relative basis.

Morgan Stanley stresses that none of the companies have made any public comment and the scenario is hypothetical. Overweight rating and $1.70 target retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.3
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Record shipments of 47.3mt were made in the June quarter, marginally better than Citi expected. FY21 guidance is for shipments of 175-180mt and C1 costs of US$13-13.50/wmt.

Citi revises FY21 estimates up by 2.5% on the back of the new guidance. The second half FY20 dividend pay-out ratio is also increased to 75%. Sell rating and $11.70 target maintained.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: minus $5.85 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue Metals Group delivered yet another impressive quarter, reports Macquarie. The group achieved its FY20 upgraded guidance.

The FY21 production guidance at 175-180mt, is also better than expected.

The broker has upgraded its medium-term forecasts for the core operations. Eliwana remains on track and is expected to improve the group's product mix. 

Fortescue Metals' earnings momentum is likely to remain strong, comments Macquarie.

Macquarie reiterates its Outperform rating with the target price increasing to $18 from $15.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: $0.45
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Equal-weight (3) -

Shipments were ahead 2% in the June quarter although production was down -8% on Morgan Stanley's estimates.

FY21 guidance is for shipments of 175-180mt and costs of US$13.25/t. Eliwana remains on schedule.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $12.15. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: minus $5.4 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

According to Morgans, it is difficult to find a company with better bottom-up and top-down short-term fundamentals than Fortescue Metals Group, after reporting a strong shipment update and future guidance.

The company reported 4Q20 shipments of 47mt, enough to finish the year at 178mt, ahead of already upgraded FY20 guidance of 175mt-178mt.

Morgans believes the FY21 guidance of 175mt-180mt is very strong.

The company has stated its dividend payout ratio for the year will sit between 50%-80% of underlying earnings. The broker expects a large final dividend of US$1.13ps.

Hold rating is maintained. The price target has jumped to $13.00 from $11.50.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: minus $4.55 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Shipments, revenue and costs were better than Ord Minnett expected in the June quarter. FY21 operating guidance is slightly ahead of estimates.

The broker considers the company the best operator in iron ore but struggles to envisage valuation upside.

Hold rating retained. Target rises to $15.60 from $15.00.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Fortescue Metals Group reported another record quarter with June quarter shipments at 47.3mt. This brings FY20's total shipments to 178.2mt, slightly more than the guidance of 175-177mt.

Costs were also higher driven by covid-19 led operational procedure changes but this has almost reversed now. UBS expects an upgrade in FY20 consensus earnings due to higher volumes and in-line price realisation.

FY21 production guidance is at 175-180mt, ahead of the market but in-line with the broker’s estimate. The miner expects to receive approval to produce as much as 210mtpa by 2020-end.

The broker notes the stock’s price has doubled since March 2020 and the market is concerned about the sustainability of the high iron ore prices in the long run.

UBS retains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $17.50 from $13.60.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMA as Outperform (1) -

Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia released its first-half result. Investment income, driven by a rally in equities and fixed income, was significantly ahead of Macquarie’s estimate. This included -$30.8m in additional reserves.

The broker has increased earnings forecasts for FY20-22 led by better investment income, lower acquisition costs and stronger gross written premium growth.

Even with choppy times ahead, the broker sees value in the company and retains its Outperform rating with the target price decreasing to $2.70 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.98
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GWA as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Elevated home improvement expenditure is likely to continue, Credit Suisse assesses. The company reports results on August 17.

The broker acknowledges the risks to renovation expenditure, as working-from-home trends ease. Declines in house prices and turnover historically drive lower business in this area.

Still, the broker observes renovation-exposed companies have been more resilient during prior downturns compared with new construction.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral as the stock has fallen around -20% and is now seen as at a reasonable entry point. Target is reduced to $3.05 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.38
If GWA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HRL as Add (1) -

HRL Holdings' recent FY20 result was slightly ahead of recent guidance and Morgans' forecast.

The broker highlights operating cashflow as the standout metric, which reflected the benefits of strong debtor collection, accelerated payments from government customers and utilisation of covid-19 tax deferral relief.

As expected the company did not provide FY21 guidance, but the broker expects this may be given at the October AGM.

Morgans advises investors to look through a potentially challenging FY21 and believes patience will be rewarded as strong growth returns from FY22 onwards.

Add rating is maintained. Target is raised to $0.15 from $0.14.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.04
If HRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

Citi reduces estimates for earnings per share in FY22 and FY21 by -9% and -14%, respectively, as it factors in the company's pre-disclosed headline result.

Although gearing is currently within the target range, the broker would not rule out actions to strengthen the balance sheet at some point.

The broker is encouraged by the moderating of P&I outflows and now expects FY21 underlying net profit of $145m.

Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $4.70 from $5.50.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -

IOOF Holdings expects to report an underlying net profit in FY20 of $128-130m, slightly below Credit Suisse expectations.

Synergy targets for the merger have been reiterated and remediation provisions are unchanged. Outflows are predominantly from the P&I business and affected by the early release of superannuation.

Credit Suisse reduces FY20 underlying net profit forecasts by -4% to the mid point of guidance. FY21 estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -2% and FY22 by -4%.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and $5.50 target.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.64
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

IOOF Holdings released its June quarter funds under management, advice and administration (FUMA) update along with a business update.

The underlying net profit was about -4-5% below consensus driven by weakness in the company's ANZ pensions and investments business. Net flows for the quarter were circa 3.8% of opening FUMA. Macquarie notes flows were impacted by early access to Super.

The broker sees limited scope for near term re-rating due to earnings pressures which are likely to persist into the first half. A less stretched balance sheet will provide valuation support.

The company will declare its FY20 result on August 31. Macquarie maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $4.65.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Equal-weight (3) -

Preliminary guidance for FY20 underlying net profit of $124m is below Morgan Stanley's estimates.

The broker observes the second half was very weak and operating margins were challenged.

The company will provide a strategic update at its August 31 result.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $4.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Hold (3) -

Net outflows of -$1.3bn over FY20 were mainly the result of early access to superannuation, Ord Minnett notes. The broker adjusts forecasts to allow for lower earnings in the P&I business.

The broker considers the stock is trading cheaply and could present upside if regulatory pressures don't accumulate, or if markets rally strongly.

IOOF Holdings is due to report its FY20 result on August 26. Hold rating retained. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: $0.14
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Sell (5) -

IGO continues to be priced for perfection and Ord Minnett reiterates a Sell rating, which reflects declining asset quality and capital allocation risk. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $3.70.

The broker believes the weak outlook serves as a timely reminder that investors should reassess valuation assumptions, particularly those extrapolating recent grades at Nova and/or a mine life greater than seven years.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JHG as Underperform (5) -

Second quarter adjusted earnings were ahead of expectations. The large beat in the headline numbers is attributable to some one-off items, Credit Suisse assesses.

Despite positive retail flows the company experienced large institutional outflows in the quarter, around half of which could be attributed to INTECH.

The broker struggles to envisage a turnaround in institutional flows despite management's optimistic commentary.

Credit Suisse retains an Underperform rating and reduces the target to $21.00 from $21.47.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $30.28 Difference: minus $9.28 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.38, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -

Janus Henderson Group released its second-quarter result with net profit much ahead of both Macquarie and consensus forecasts. Operating income was about 10% above consensus, driven by costs and management fee line.

Net outflows decreased to -$8.2bn but are considered high by the broker. The momentum was positive in higher-margin intermediary flows.

Metrics broadly improved, with assets under management (AUM) increasing by about 17%. The only exception was Intech which continues to lag, points out the broker. The broker thinks the positive shift in mix and better intermediary flows provide scope for re-rating.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating with the target price increasing to $38 from $36.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $30.28 Difference: $7.72
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.38, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

First quarter profit was better than Citi expected and this is expected to be the trough quarter for FY21. Macquarie Group was able to divest a significant rail operating business and commodity momentum was also better than expected.

The main challenge looming in the second quarter is the soft comparables, given performance fees and realisations were skewed to the second quarter in the prior corresponding half.

The broker suspects this could explain a lack of further FY21 guidance. Neutral maintained. Target is lifted to $125 from $110.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $126.00 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $120.65, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

First quarter net profit contribution from the various businesses was comparatively softer but Morgan Stanley suspects there is still upside risk to consensus forecasts in FY21, which suggest earnings will fall -15-20%.

The commodities business benefited from stronger activity although slowed towards the end of the quarter. Gains were made on the EU rail sale while there were lower realisations elsewhere.

Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is $120.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $126.00 Difference: minus $6 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $120.65, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Add (1) -

There were several positives in a market update by Macquarie Group at its AGM, according to Morgans.

Firstly, key Banking and Financial Service business drivers continue to see healthy growth, with deposits, home loans and funds on platform all rising by between 4%-9% over the quarter.

Secondly, Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets raised and deployed around 5.5bn of capital in 1Q21 and has $25bn of dry powder to deploy as at June 2020.

Finally, 1Q21 surplus regulatory capital increased, driven by a reduction in business capital requirements on reduced derivative/ loan exposures in the Commodities and Global Markets division.

Due to market uncertainty the company has not provided FY21 guidance at this stage. Morgans sees Macquarie Group well positioned to seize on opportunities post covid-19 disruptions.

Add rating is maintained. Target is increased to $133.40 from $121.50.

Target price is $133.40 Current Price is $126.00 Difference: $7.4
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.65, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

The AGM commentary and first quarter trading update were in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker suspects subsequent quarters may be more subdued because of delays in capital recycling, although activity is assumed to recover in the fourth quarter.

The stock has run up strongly over recent months and the broker envisages only modest potential upside. This leads to a downgrade to Accumulate from Buy. Target is raised to $133 from $130.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $126.00 Difference: $7
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.65, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group noted a softer than expected first quarter with operating contribution slightly lower than last year, reports UBS. 

The banking and financial services division was on the lower side due to higher provisions. A stronger Australian dollar was another headwind.

No guidance has been provided for FY21. The broker forecasts Macquarie asset management base fees to be in-line while asset sales may be delayed. Macquarie Capital’s investment-related income is expected to be materially down.

UBS thinks the result looks reasonable given the challenging environment. The group is considered to have a strong balance sheet and is well placed to take advantage of opportunities arising from the downturn.

UBS reaffirms its Neutral rating with a target price of $105.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $126.00 Difference: minus $21 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $120.65, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Add (1) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount.

No change to rating or price target.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.12 Difference: $1.88
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.47, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Mines' second-quarter result was impacted by severe rainfall, leading the miner to miss Macquarie’s production forecast by -9%.

Lower shipments translated to below-predicted revenue and operating income. This is viewed as a one-off event and the broker expects production and shipments to improve in the second half of 2020.

No changes made by the broker to its production and costs forecasts for 2020 and beyond. The company will report its 2020 earnings in mid-August.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating with a target price of $0.75.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.16
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates its forecasts ahead of News Corp’s June quarter result. The broker expects operating income to be down -59% versus last year but ahead of consensus forecasts.

June quarter was tough due to covid-19. The broker expects negative impacts will be felt in publications with exposure to advertising and print circulation revenues. The Wall Street Journal is more defensive given its skew to digital subscriptions.

The broker expects an improvement in FY21 from digital assets and books. Valuation upside remains from core assets of WSJ, PIB and books. Content deals with large tech companies could benefit earnings, forecasts the broker.

The June quarter result will be announced on August 7.

Macquarie reiterates its Outperform rating with the target price increasing to $23.18 from $22.52.

Target price is $23.18 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $5.17
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.49, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OGC as Buy (1) -

OceanaGold Corp’s second-quarter production was -13% weaker than expected but reasonable given the impact of covid-19 led restriction on mobility in New Zealand and cases in the US, comments UBS.

Guidance for production and cost has been reduced but the broker believes OceanaGold provides strong production growth prospects. The broker reduces its 2020 net profit by -63% driven mostly by a later than expected restart of the Didipio mine.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target price decreasing to $4.60 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.78
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -

Production in the June quarter was lower because of pandemic-related restrictions and reduced demand. Price realisation was down -19% on the prior quarter and down -52% on the comparable quarter in FY19.

Citi makes modest revisions to estimates, with softer pricing partially offset by better cost management.

Headwinds remain in the short term for lithium but the broker expects Orocobre will benefit over the medium term from a better product mix. Buy/High Risk retained. Target is raised to $3.90 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.82
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORE as Underperform (5) -

Orocobre’s June quarter was in-line with Macquarie’s expectations even though it was impacted by market weakness and aggressive competitor pricing, reports Macquarie.

The company believes downstream industry players have about six months of inventory which points at -19% lower realised pricing quarter on quarter.

The broker considers inventory as the key factor for pricing. The broker believes any recovery in prices will be muted by a strong and immediate supply response.

Macquarie maintains its Underperform rating with a target price of $2.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -

Orocobre revealed costs and revenue in line with expectations in the June quarter.

A review of Olaroz stage 2 has determined the total expenditure will increase to -US$330m, reflecting both design optimisation and pandemic-related delays. The project is now 70% complete.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating with a target price of $2.40. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORE as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Ord Minnett observes, despite the company's good work with costs, stage 1 operations are losing cash and stage 2 expenditure has exceeded estimates.

The prospect of further delays resulting from the pandemic could also raise costs. In the short term the market is oversupplied and any recovery is expected to be well into 2021.

As the stock no longer offers valuation support, Ord Minnett downgrades to Sell from Hold and lowers the target to $2.00 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Sell (5) -

June quarter production was ahead of the March quarter while shipments were slightly weaker. The company has announced a US$110m senior debt facility to replace its existing bond facility.

Citi believes this refinancing, at a cheaper average interest rate, is a positive outcome and removes a major overhang.

The broker remains cautious about the spodumene price trajectory in the short term and would wait for a recovery in lithium demand before becoming more constructive.

Sell/High Risk retained. Target is raised to $0.32 from $0.22.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

The June quarter production result was positive, Credit Suisse observes. The project has demonstrated design recovery of 70-75% for extended periods. The main issue is with demand which is outside the company's control.

The broker expects the lithium price to deteriorate further. Refinancing is considered a significant positive and will materially reduce risk of a liquidity event.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is $0.40.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.03
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Underperform (5) -

Pilbara Minerals reported stronger than expected June quarter production and sales even under weak demand conditions, reports Macquarie. Both production and sales were stronger than expected.

The broker notes the company has also secured a new US$110m refinancing facility. Spodumene prices will likely continue to fall in the first half of FY21 before starting to recover, on the broker's forecasts.

Macquarie maintains its Underperform rating with the target price increasing to $0.27 from $0.13.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Sell (5) -

The company has announced a new US$110m debt facility to replace the expensive US$100m Nordic bond. This removes the funding risk for the short term.

Ord Minnett highlights an oversupplied market signals that, despite discipline by suppliers, the pandemic is exacerbating the weakness in demand.

The broker maintains a Sell rating and raises the target to $0.23 from $0.17, increasing modelled recoveries.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

As a response to the Juukan Gorge incident, Rio Tinto is reassessing its compliance with heritage management obligations in Western Australia but does not expect this to impact iron ore production in 2020, reports UBS.

The covid-19 situation in South Africa remains concerning with operations restarting in early 2021 at the earliest. The miner states high power costs have kept the Pacific aluminium business uncompetitive and this will remain so until the issue is sorted.

UBS reiterates its Neutral rating with a target price of $102.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $104.50 Difference: minus $2.5 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $101.92, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

June quarter production beat Citi's estimates. While Sandfire Resources is a low-cost copper producer it is in transition to development in Botswana and at Black Butte. DeGrussa is expected to deplete in September 2022.

The broker expects mining costs will lift in FY21 because of more and/or smaller stopes and lower gold credits.

Rating is Neutral/High Risk. Target is reduced to $5.40 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.16
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Record quarterly production was delivered in the June quarter at a record low cash cost. Credit Suisse assesses FY20 production beat on all guidance measures.

There was limited exploration drilling because of the disruption from the pandemic but planning is advanced, particularly in Botswana.

Outperform rating retained. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.26
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Sandfire Resources’ June quarter was strong with higher than expected production and shipments. Production of both copper and gold was 9% and 26% higher than Macquarie’s forecasts.

FY21 guidance was weaker than expected. DeGrussa is expected to produce 67-70kt of copper and 36-40koz of gold. This has led the broker to decrease its earnings forecasts for FY21-23.

Macquarie downgrades the stock to Neutral from Outperform with the target price decreasing to $5.20 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

The June quarter was very strong with low costs helped by gold by-products, Morgan Stanley notes. This FY21 copper guidance is -10% below the broker's estimates and likely to be conservative.

Lower DeGrussa mine grades drive the difference to Morgan Stanley's estimates and should provide the potential to selectively mine higher grade stopes, meeting or possibly beating guidance.

Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $6.10 from $6.35. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.86
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the fourth quarter was robust, with copper production in line and gold higher. There was no material new information on the T3 or Black Butte projects.

The broker can envisage a path to replacing DeGrussa production with the US and African projects but there remains significant risk around execution, and potential delays because of the pandemic.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $5.70 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.46
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

June quarter production of Sandfire Resources was better than expected. FY21 guidance of 67-70kt, led by lower copper production and higher costs, disappointed UBS.

The Black Butte operation is now permitted but faces legal challenges, reports UBS. The Botswana operation is growing and the company is considering upscaling the production to 5.2mtpa. This will lead to copper production of 30-50ktpa.

These two projects remain key for the company, according to the broker.

UBS reaffirms its Buy rating with the target price decreasing to $5.70 from $6.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.46
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Hold (3) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount.

No change to rating or price target.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.75 Difference: $0.65
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.64, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

The company has confirmed a renegotiation of debt facilities with existing covenants effectively removed until December 2021. These are replaced by liquidity and earnings tests although details have not been disclosed.

Credit Suisse assesses this removes the need for equity capital in the short term although the business remains highly sensitive to movements in the advertising market. The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $0.10 from $0.07.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.21, suggesting upside of 110.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SWM as Outperform (1) -

Seven West Media announced covenant relief and more cost-out initiatives, both permanent and one-offs. Macquarie notes the company’s focus is to de-lever and the cost-out program will help in this.

The broker expects free to air (FTA) TV ad revenues to fall in the second half of FY20 and into the first half of FY21.

The company has executed a number of asset sales with more in the pipeline. This will help reduce its debt burden, notes the broker. The asset sales combined with covenant relief give Macquarie confidence in the company’s ability to navigate this period.

Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating with the target price decreasing to $0.17 from $0.23

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.06
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.21, suggesting upside of 110.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

Seven West Media’s debt facilities have been extended and secured via a security deed, reports UBS.

The revision of its AFL contract will lead to cost savings of $87m over the existing term, highlights the broker. There will be permanent cost savings of $170m, mostly in FY20-21 and across both TV and print.

There will also be temporary cost savings in FY20 worth $50m. The company will be reporting its results on August 25.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $0.12.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.01
If SWM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.21, suggesting upside of 110.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SYD as Add (1) -

Sydney Airport is announcing its 1H20 result on August 17, and Morgans reviews key stock considerations.

Going into the result, the broker's revised 1H20 forecasts have earnings and Net Operating Receipts declining by -51% and -76%, respectively versus the previous corresponding period.

Morgans doesn't believe distributions will recommence until 2H22 (for payment in February 2023).

The broker states the company has sufficient liquidity to meet costs and maturing debt well into 2021.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.11 from $7.79.

Target price is $7.11 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $1.8
If SYD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates URW as Neutral (3) -

The first half recurring earnings per share (AREPS) for Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield was 11% more than Macquarie expected. Cash operating earnings were in line with the broker.

The guidance for FY20 remains withdrawn. Even though the stock appears to be a good pick on many metrics, the debt level remains a point of concern for the broker.

Macquarie retains its Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $4.09 from $4.19.

Target price is $4.09 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.31
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

APRA has announced that it has eased dividend restrictions for Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADIs). It expects ADI's to retain at least half of their earnings, and actively use dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management Initiatives to at least partially offset the diminution in capital from distributions.

Morgans now forecasts FY20 dividends to be 45% of FY20 forecast statutory NPAT for all of the Australian banks under their coverage. The FY21 dividend forecasts for the banks also equate to 45% of the broker's FY21 forecast statutory NPAT,  that is the analyst assumes that dividend restrictions will continue in FY21, but not in FY22.

The broker expects all banks under coverage to operate DRPs with no price discount.

As a result, Morgans now expects Westpac to declare a deferred interim dividend of $0.15cps (fully franked) as part of its scheduled 3Q20 trading update on August 18.

Westpac remains the broker's preferred bank. No change to rating or price target.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $4.83
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.37, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WTC as Reinstate coverage with Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse believes the company has the foundation for attractive long-term growth. The valuation multiple has de-rated from its highs, providing an entry point, although global trade data remain weak and may drag in the short term.

The broker suggests accumulating the stock on weakness and reinstates coverage with an Outperform rating and $23.60 target. Credit Suisse notes the acquisition strategy remains sensible and solid organic growth is occurring.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $21.02 Difference: $2.58
If WTC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.55, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources