Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 360 as Buy (1) -

Life360’s Sensor Tower app data showed mixed trends in September, with US monthly active users (MAU) down m/m and slowing to 21% y/y from 23% in August.

International triple tier markets (UK, Australia, Canada) delivered the strongest MAU m/m net adds in over two years, and was up 31% y/y vs 32% in August.

Citi highlights the data shows upside risk to consensus for US MAU but downside risk for international despite the latest monthly trend. 

The broker also points to analysis on LinkedIn showing a slowing in headcount growth to 15% y/y in September from 17% in June, signaling cost discipline.

Overall, upside risk seen to 3Q25 EBITDA consensus, with the broker's forecast 12% above consensus.

Buy. Target unchanged at $47.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $54.83 Difference: minus $7.83 (current price is over target).
If 360 meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.50, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Morgans emphasises junior raisings growth has accelerated in September to record levels, up 260% to US$1.5bn on the prior year. Proprietary raisings data suggests geochemical sample volumes are lifting by circa 20%-30% in November.

September was the fourth consecutive month of raisings over US$1bn, and 12-month trailing raisings are US$11bn, a rise of 72% on the previous period, which is a meaningful indicator for ALS Ltd sample volumes.

The analyst makes no changes to its Life Sciences forecast assumptions but raises Commodities revenue growth estimate in FY26 to 12% from 10%, and up to 20% from 12% in FY27.

Robust operating leverage allows for net profit after tax estimates to rise by 2% in FY26 and between 7%-8% in FY27.

Morgans raises the target price to $24.60 and rates the stock Buy.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $21.63 Difference: $2.97
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APE as Accumulate (2) -

Eagers Automotive is conducting two strategic moves, the acquisition of a majority stake in CanadaOne Auto and Mitsubishi Corp taking a 20% stake in EA132.

This is accompanied by a $452m underwritten entitlement offer and $50m from Mitsubishi via a placement.

Morgans notes CanadaOne is a top 5 dealership group with 42 in the portfolio representing 20 OEMs, with a robust growth track record. The Canadian OEM market is 1.5 times Australia in volume terms.

Mitsubishi's investment is not only viewed as confirmation of the business but also allows the corporation to leverage Mitsubishi's global network, including auto-related businesses.

Morgans raises its EPS forecasts by 6.6% for FY26 and 10.5% for FY27, with the target price upgraded to $33.35 from $26.60. No change to Accumulate rating.

Several growth tailwinds are working for Eagers, according to the analyst, including industry consolidation and alliances, a lead in EV transition, used car exposure via EA123, and new offshore markets.

Target price is $33.35 Current Price is $33.70 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.38, suggesting downside of -14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Australian new vehicle sales rose 5.1% y/y in September to 101,992 units, marking the fourth straight monthly increase after ten months of decline.

Sports utility vehicles, up 8.8% y/y, and light commercial vehicles, up 10.2%, led the growth, while passenger (-10.4%) and heavy commercial (-14.4%) segments fell. 

Sales of key vehicles linked to ARB Corp's business rose 6.4%, driven by strong gains in the Toyota Hilux (up 17%), Ford Ranger (up 8.5%), and continued strength in Toyota Prado.

With new vehicle sales expected to keep trending upward in FY26, Ord Minnett believes the outlook remains positive for the company.

Buy. Target unchanged at $42.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $38.84 Difference: $3.16
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.36, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Brazilian Rare Earths announced a maiden 568Mt bauxite resource at 29.8% alumina at its Amargosa project in Brazil.

Ord Minnett highlights 98Mt or 16% is direct shipping ore (DSO) quality, requiring minimal capex. A scoping study is expected by end-2025, with potential for a 2Mtpa DSO export operation in 2-3 years, subject to logistics approvals.

The broker notes the project adds a second growth pillar alongside the high-grade Monte Alto rare earths project, benefiting from strong bauxite prices.  

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $6.30.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1.7
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DGT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes DigiCo Infrastructure REIT’s announcement on contract wins, which is expected to lift contracted capacity to 41MW by June 2026, a rise of 52% from August guidance of 27MW.

The wins came from hyperscale, neocloud, enterprise and government customers, with contracts at SYD1, Adelaide and Brisbane. The new contracted billings are expected to generate annualised earnings (EBITDA) of over $180m on a run-rate basis from July 2026.

The analyst forecasts the REIT is on track to exceed its $163m earnings (EBITDA) target set at the IPO and estimates earnings (EBITDA) of $175–$185m, though with uncertainty around contract starts, renewals and the mix of existing capacity.

Macquarie has lowered its FFO forecasts by -6.5% for FY26 and -5.2% for FY27 due to a rise in assumed interest expense.

No change to the Outperform rating. Target price rises to $4.16.

This research was published on October 3.

Target price is $4.16 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $1.21
If DGT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DGT as Buy (1) -

Digico Infrastructure REIT announced new data centre contract wins in Sydney, Brisbane, and Adelaide, taking contracted capacity to 41MW in FY26, well ahead of its 27MW guidance.

Ord Minnett notes the wins span hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google, IBM, Oracle), enterprise, and government clients, supporting FY26 operating earnings growth guidance of 21-26% as revenues ramp in 2H.

SYD1 (Sydney) was the key driver, now at 100% committed occupancy for FY26, with planned installed capacity raised to 13MW and accelerated rollout of the remaining 49MW at lower-than-expected cost.

The broker reckons the FY26 FFO guidance ($0.120-0.133) appears soft due to billing timing, but a sharp recovery is expected in FY27-28 as capacity comes online.

While positive on the stock, the broker highlights high leverage is a concern which could be mitigated if DigiCo sells partial stakes in SYD1 or US assets to reduce gearing to around 6.7x.

Buy. Target trimmed to $3.90 from $4.00 (was $4.30 in early July).

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.95
If DGT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 37.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems has announced the securing of a $108m contract to supply R400 Remote Weapon Systems (RWS) for the Australian Defence Force’s LAND 400 program, with delivery expected during 2025-27.

Bell Potter notes the systems will be installed on Hanwha Defence Australia’s Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles. The contract was already largely incorporated into the broker's forecasts.

The analysts expect several catalysts over the next six months, including potential RWS and Slinger awards worth up to $70m and updates from the EU’s defence roadmap in October.

Bell Potter upgrades its 2027 earnings forecast by 15% and raises its target price to $11.20 from $11.00. Buy rating retained.

The broker highlights increased spending on counter-drone technology. It's noted the EU’s proposed “drone wall” exemplifies the growing international focus on counter-unmanned aircraft system (UAS) capabilities.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $8.97 Difference: $2.23
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Electro Optic Systems secured a $108m contract to supply Remote Weapon Systems (RWS) for the Australian Army’s Land 400 Phase 3 program, also known as Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicle.

Ord Minnett notes Redback is being built by Hanwha and the deal covers 129 vehicles, including spares and training. Production is expected to begin in 2025 and revenue is expected across FY25–FY27.

The broker highlights the latest contract win has lifted the order book to $400m, a strong rebound from $136m at end-2024. The broker now expects the upper end of FY25 guidance to be reached, with increased confidence in FY26-FY27 earnings delivery.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at $11.18.

Target price is $11.18 Current Price is $8.97 Difference: $2.21
If EOS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

A visit to Iluka Resources' Eneabba rare earths refinery and meeting with the team reinforced Ord Minnett's confidence in the technical expertise and project execution.

However, the broker notes the share price rally is driven by “REO mania,” with NdPr prices implied above US$110/kg unlikely to sustain. 

A surprise was the timeline with the Eneabba plant, due to start production mid-2027, which is expected to take 3 months to produce NdPr and 9 months for heavy rare earth oxides. 

On the positive side, the broker highlights the plant’s versatile design allows processing of various monazite/xenotime feedstocks and potential third-party refining opportunities.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold on share price rally. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.95, suggesting downside of -20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie updated its forecasts for Karoon Energy to factor in higher-than-expected oil production at Bauna and the need for more operating support from Altera & Ocyan at the Bauna FPSO.

Bauna production was stronger at 21.3kb/day vs the broker's previous estimate of 20kb/day. As a result, the broker lifted FY25 EPS forecast by 7% on higher production.

Operating cost is expected to be US$15.2/boe overall in FY26, up from US$10/boe expected before, though for FY25 the broker still expects cost to be within the US$12-15/boe range at US14.5/boe.

The broker suggests prudence with share buyback ahead of US$25m commencement (after October 23) and lowered its assumption to US$25m in 2H25 from US$40m.

Neutral. Target trimmed to $1.70 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.08
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MEI as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Meteoric Resources to 25c from 14c and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold.

Brazil’s Council of Management for the Environmental Protection Area of Pedra Branca (CONGEAPA) has provided consent to commence operations of its the Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project within the 3km environmental buffer zone.

This follows a previously blocked vote in August 2025, notes the broker, and clears a key hurdle ahead of the Preliminary Licence (LP) decision from the Minas Gerais Environmental Protection Agency.

Management expects pilot plant construction and production of mixed rare earth carbonate to begin by late November or early December.

The analysts view this outcome as a major de-risking event, signaling progress toward the pilot plant completion, and definitive feasibility study delivery.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.08
If MEI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 54.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MX1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Micro-X announced its largest Rover Plus contract at $3.3m for its mobile X-ray units from Malaysia's Ministry of Health, which affirms Morgans' view the rate of positive news continues for the company.

The analyst also points to the completion of Micro-X's first head CT imaging test bench, which is ready for installation in a domestic hospital post final regulatory and ethics approvals.

The US Department of Homeland Security's $2.5m contract extension to improve self-screening checkpoint detection algorithms was announced last week, bringing total funding to $31.7m.

No change to the broker's earnings estimates. Target remains at 17c with an ongoing Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.065
If MX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NST as Buy (1) -

A new analyst at Bell Potter has resumed the broker's coverage of Northern Star Resources with a Buy rating and target price of $30 (previously Hold; target $20.85).

The broker sees the company as a stable, low-risk gold producer poised for free cash flow (FCF) growth from FY27 following the $1.5bn KCGM mill expansion to 27mtpa.

Production is expected to rise around 10% in FY26 as higher-grade zones lift KCGM’s milled grade to 1.6g/t from 1.3g/t in FY25.

The company trades at 7.7x next twelve months earnings (EBITDA), below peers, highlights Bell Potter. An upcoming cash flow harvesting phase is expected, supported by stronger gold prices.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.77 Difference: $5.23
If NST meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.32, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUZ as Speculative Buy (1) -

The US FDA has accepted Neurizon Therapeutics' IND application for NUZ-001, which removes the regulatory hold after nine months and allows the biotech to join the Healy ALS (motor neurone disease) platform trial.

Morgans sees this as a major de-risking for the stock. First patient enrolments in the Healy trial are expected by the end of 2025, with first data at the end of 2026.

The analyst continues to believe Neurizon is a robust proposition in the rare disease segment.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target slips to 39c from 42c.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.235
If NUZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 152% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIC as Re-Initiation of Coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Morgans re-initiates coverage of Ridley Corp with an Accumulate rating and $3.25 target price. Despite the recent share price strength post the acquisition of Incitec Pivot’s fertiliser business, the analyst remains upbeat on the company's future.

The acquisition was made at an attractive valuation as it was considered a non-core asset for Dyno Nobel ((DNL)). It allows Ridley to develop a three-pillar growth portfolio around bulk stockfeeds, packaged feeds & ingredients, and fertilisers.

Morgans believes this leverages structural growth in protein consumption, growing pet ownership, as well as premiumisation trends. This is in addition to major tailwinds from a rise in fertiliser use for agricultural productivity and food security.

The acquisition, however, does bring forth some cyclicality, seasonality, and pricing risks compared to the group's existing businesses, the broker highlights.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.28
If RIC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

In a market update for FY25, Select Harvests guided to crop size of 24,700t, within guidance but below prior forecast of 25,250t.

FY25 almond pricing is expected at $10.14-10.20/kg, broadly in line with forecasts and up from the July low of $8.25/kg. Net debt is now forecast around $80m, well below FY24’s $162.3m, driven by faster crop sell-through.

Bell Potter updated forecasts to account for lower production volumes and lower net debt. The result was a trimming of FY25 net profit estimate by -8% but a lift in FY26-27 forecasts by 3%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.45.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $1.66
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 40.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests downgraded FY25 guidance for both volume and price, now expecting a 24,700MT crop (down -2.2%) and average almond pricing of $10.14-10.20/kg (down -1.7% at midpoint).

Ord Minnett describes the downgrade as modest, noting market reaction was muted as focus shifts to the FY26 season. The outlook is positive with production expected to return to near-average volumes of around 28,250MT.

The broker cut FY25 EBITDA forecast by -10% and also lowered FY26 by -10% on revised volume and price assumptions.

Buy. Target trimmed to $4.95 from $5.65.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $1.16
If SHV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 40.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SM1 as Sell (5) -

Synlait Milk’s sale of its North Island assets strengthens the balance sheet and provides an earnings base for FY27, though UBS notes lower ingredient margins have reduced profit expectations.

The broker points to modest FY28 earnings growth as ingredient margins recover but infant formula (IF) volumes fall, given a2 Milk Co's ((A2M)) internalisation of English-label production.

As expected by the analyst, Synlait (July year-end) reported FY25 earnings (EBIT) of NZ$50m, with weaker ingredient and IF margins offset by lower overheads and gains from milk trading.

The NZ$307m North Island sale to US-based Abbott Laboratories is expected to remove short-term losses and is viewed as value-accretive.

UBS raises its target price to NZ79c from NZ58c and retains a Sell rating.

Current Price is $0.70. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes TPG Telecom's announcement of a new off-balance sheet structure for managing handset instalment receivables, aimed at improving free cash flow and working capital.

Under the plan, TPG will sell handset receivables to a trust funded by Macquarie Group ((MQG)) and other banks, reducing upfront handset funding needs.

The broker forecasts an initial $600m free cash flow boost, offset by one-off setup costs (-$50m in FY25, falling to -$5m thereafter) and lower bad debt expenses over time.

FY25 EPS forecast cut sharply on setup costs and share dilution, and FY26 trimmed by -5.1%.

Accumulate. Target unchanged at $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.62
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources