Australian Broker Call
December 01, 2016
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 01:18 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
TOX - | TOX FREE SOLUTIONS | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
Deutsche Bank rates AAD as Hold (3) -
The re-opening of Whitewater World and Dreamworld is a positive first step in recovery of the company's theme parks after the tragedy last month, Deutsche Bank believes.
The impact on the near-term outlook is still uncertain and the company has not provided any commentary on other businesses. The broker expects momentum achieved in bowling to be sustainable while the performance of Main Event continues to be strong.
A Hold rating is retained and the target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.35
If AAD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -26.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 55.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AAD as Neutral (3) -
Dream World has reopened and the broker has attempted to assess the impact of the closure. While the broker can note the revenue lost during the closure based on what the park made in the same period last year, trying to adjust forecasts for the impact on earnings going forward is far from simple.
The near term earnings outlook for Ardent is highly uncertain. The broker has nevertheless cut forecasts by 62% and 36% in FY17-18, while noting Main Event remains the primary driver. Target falls to $2.21 from $2.94. Neutral retained.
Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.06
If AAD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -26.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 55.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -
FY16 performance beat Citi, consensus and the company's own guidance, comment the analysts. They have one easy prediction for investors: expect upgrades to market expectations.
The result also revealed costs are rising, but given strong operational momentum, Citi analysts suggest it is not such a bad problem to have for Aristocrat. Estimates have been slightly raised, pushing up the price target to $19.05 from $18.75. Buy.
Target price is $19.05 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $3.58
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.37, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 75.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 83.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.6, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ALL as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse believes that Aristocrat can achieve around 20% growth in earnings per share in FY17, harnessing the momentum in US recurring revenue, digital and International Class III.
The broker upgrades forecasts by around 11% but its valuation rises by a lesser amount because of the effect of rising bond rates on the company's cost of capital.
A Neutral rating is retained and the target is raised to $16.50 from $15.65.
Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $1.03
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.37, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 74.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 82.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.6, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank considers the company's FY16 results as positive given growth in recurring revenue and the strength in net operating cash flow.
The outlook is for continued growth in share and profitability in 2017. Earnings forecasts are unchanged, as higher Australian international and digital earnings are offset by slightly lower North American and VGT earnings.
The broker retains a Buy rating and $19.70 target.
Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $4.23
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.37, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.6, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -
Aristocrat's FY16 profit result beat the broker and consensus by 6%. Americas and other international exceeded expectations, and the broker expects American ship-share to grow notably through to FY20. Digital revenue also beat and the broker expects A&NZ ship-share to remain dominant in FY17.
The company's strong balance sheet leaves it well placed to out-maneuver the competition, the broker suggests. Outperform retained, target rises to $18.80 from $17.30.
Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $3.33
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.37, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.90 cents and EPS of 74.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.6, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -
FY16 results were strong and confirmed a significant improvement in all divisions, UBS observes.
Given the continued momentum and increased investment in new areas the broker has upgraded its forecast for earnings per share by 1% in FY17 and by 11% in FY18.
The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $17.94 from $17.60.
Target price is $17.94 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $2.47
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.37, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.6, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALQ as Hold (3) -
First half profit was at the low end of guidance and revealed some operational issues in life sciences and a slower recovery in minerals processing. The second half outlook is below Deutsche Bank's forecast.
The broker considers the share price movement is bringing the stock back towards fair value and retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $5.50 from $5.02.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of 22.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -
UBS reduces US dollar earnings per share forecasts by 4-5% for FY17 to reflect the impact of stronger US dollar cross rates and a lower volume outlook across the European flexible and Latin American rigid plastics businesses.
Following these earnings changes the broker envisages Amcor will generate US$210m in operating free cash flow after payment of dividends in FY17.
UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $15.10 from $17.30.
Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: $0.72
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.55, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 73.99 cents and EPS of 76.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 79.38 cents and EPS of 83.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AYS as Outperform (1) -
Amaysim's investor day highlighted strong subscriber trends. Average revenue per unit will nevertheless decline in FY17 given dilution from Vaya subscribers, the broker notes, although cost-outs should offset the ARPU impact. The company will begin launching broadband in the second half.
While an FY17 ARPU decline is disappointing, the broker is happy with subscriber growth and cost-out offsets. Amaysim is well-positioned for solid growth from FY18 and is attractively priced. Outperform and $2.50 target retained.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.64
If AYS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BHP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add following the recent strength in the share price which has meant its target has been achieved. Target is raised to $25.82 from $25.54.
The broker still considers the stock a key pick in the sector but expectations have cooled amid a belief that Chinese steel consumption will ease heading into the new year.
That said, the broker has increased confidence in its long-held view that the bottom of the resources cycle was hit in early 2016.
The main risk to its call on BHP is the ongoing legal process surrounding Samarco and short-term uncertainty in commodity prices.
Target price is $25.82 Current Price is $25.61 Difference: $0.21
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 86.10 cents and EPS of 137.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 72.65 cents and EPS of 146.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.3, implying annual growth of -7.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CKF as Buy (1) -
First half results beat Deutsche Bank's forecasts amid strong cost control and improved performance from Sizzler.The company notes sales momentum is improving.
The broker continues to regard the company as a well-managed business, with attractive growth opportunities in Australia and further options in Germany after its recent acquisitions.
Valuation is considered undemanding and Buy rating is retained. Target is raised to $6.35 from $5.20.
Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: $0.29
If CKF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CKF as Neutral (3) -
First half results beat UBS estimates by 10%. The broker acknowledges it underestimated the potential cost containment within KFC, and Sizzler also surprised on the upside.
The broker considers the valuation relatively full and maintains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $5.75 from $4.75.
Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 16.70 cents and EPS of 36.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 41.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CYB as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett expects the efforts to improve profitability will bear fruit over the long term but the current share price already reflects ambitious targets. The broker expects that the near-term resilience in the UK economy will give way in 2017.
The broker finetunes estimates and notes the offer for the RBS W&G business, if sold at a distressed multiple, could be accretive for CYBG. Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating and $4.50 target.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If CYB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 4.17 cents and EPS of 16.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.64 cents and EPS of 24.12 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes the concerns around the company's development earnings are overdone. The broker expects development margins to slow down but identifies several factors which indicate that earnings per share growth of 6-7% is sustainable.
The broker retains a Overweight rating and reduces the target to $7.70 from $8.30.
For the sector generally, the broker believes A-REITs are caught between a rising bond yield environment globally and low inflation domestically, historically a scenario which drives underperformance.
Hence, the industry view is downgraded to Cautious from Attractive. The broker looks for a stabilisation of yields as a catalyst to turn positive.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: $1.21
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.42, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.60 cents and EPS of 42.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of -40.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of 5.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GNC as Overweight (1) -
Indications are that the FY17 grain harvest will be large, potentially a record. Receivables are growing solidly and Morgan Stanley now has enough confidence to reflect a strong harvest in its estimates, upgrading forecasts for earnings per share by 46%.
While the company's stretched balance sheet is a key investor concern, on the broker's upgraded forecasts, leverage should fall to 2.1 times in FY17 from 3.4 times in FY16. Similarly, interest cover should rise to 6.7 in FY17 from 3.0 in FY16, removing this as an overhang.
The broker retains a Overweight rating, Attractive industry view and raises its target to $10.00 from $9.75.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.71 Difference: $1.29
If GNC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.12, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.6, implying annual growth of 406.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Underweight (5) -
For the sector generally, the broker believes A-REITs are caught between a rising bond yield environment globally and low inflation domestically, historically a scenario which drives underperformance.
Hence, the broker's industry view is downgraded to Cautious from Attractive. The broker looks for a stabilisation of yields as a catalyst to turn positive.
GPT's Underweight rating is retained and the target is reduced to $4.70 from $5.00.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.04, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of -39.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.80 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IOF as Lighten (4) -
The proposal from Cromwell ((CMW)) to privatise the company's $3.6bn portfolio has been rejected by the board for what appears to Ord Minnett to be a lack of certainty in funding and possibly the premium to net tangible assets being too low.
The broker notes it was Cromwell's decision to disclose a proposal, envisaged as an effort to open up dialogue with IOF investors about the merits of the proposal and further engage the board.
The board appears justified in deciding not to disclose the proposal publicly, in the broker's view, given the apparent lack of certainty where the capital is coming from and the ability to be funded. Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating and $4.23 target.
Target price is $4.23 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If IOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.0, implying annual growth of -67.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts see a company that continues to struggle with top line progress. Meanwhile management seems to be hiding behind longer term goals and targets.
The analysts suggest investors interested in jumping on board have time on their side. Wait for a cheaper entry point is the analysts' advice. Neutral. Target $2.70.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.06
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
The investor briefing focused on addressing market share decline and improving efficiencies. Credit Suisse notes that, while the new CEO stressed the importance of accountability and changing the culture, these aspects are yet to translate into specific and measurable financial metrics.
The update supported the broker's view that the company is operating in an industry facing structural challenges and earnings growth will be difficult to achieve in the next few years.
A Neutral rating and $2.50 target are maintained.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MPL as Outperform (1) -
Medibank's investor day revealed financial targets that exceed the broker's forecasts, albeit the broker suggests turning around customer growth is not easy and may take longer than hoped.
Medibank is leading in claims management but needs to reduce customer attrition, and here the company is focused on product development, the broker notes. Overall the broker sees the business improving, with claims growth running below historical trends. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.81 from $2.76.
Target price is $2.81 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.17
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.40 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley believes it will be difficult for the new CEO to create shareholder value and grow earnings, given peak margins and a deteriorating franchise.
To the broker, the company appears intent on re-shaping benefits rather than any specific price action to improve the customer experience. Retaining market share in three years time will come down to execution, Morgan Stanley asserts.
The broker retains a Underweight rating and $2.40 target. Industry view is In-Line
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MPL as Neutral (3) -
The new CEO has focused on two areas at the investor briefing. These are customer re-orientation and claims.
UBS notes new data points for operating and capital expenditure, and the benefits that will flow, were relatively modest and unlikely to move the earnings dial meaningfully.
The broker wonders whether enough is being planned for brand and customer investment to address the challenge of stemming the leakage of policy holders.
UBS retains a Neutral rating. Target is steady at $2.70.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.06
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MYR as Neutral (3) -
The share price has risen around 23% since its lows in early November after a solid first quarter sales update and in the context of weaker general market conditions, UBS notes.
While the sales result was pleasing, UBS believes the department store industry is structurally challenged. The broker believes the emergence of international players is just starting and there is little upside for Myer, with the market already pricing in a sizeable recovery.
A Neutral rating is retained and the target is reduced to $1.20 from $1.30.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 15.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 13.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SEH as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
Citi has commenced coverage with a Buy/High Risk rating and a price target of $0.18. The stockbroker's unrisked valuation equals $0.57.
The analysts see plenty of potential upside, but also potential value dilution through an asset sell-down or equity raising medium term. Citi analysts suggest the latter risks are already reflected in today's share price.
Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.08
If SEH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 EPS of minus 0.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 0.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates SGF as Buy (1) -
SG Fleet has announced the purchase of Movita Group to expand its presence in the contract hire market in the UK. Citi analysts suggest more deals should be forthcoming as this is a game where scale matters.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $1.75
If SGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 37.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SGF as Outperform (1) -
SG Fleet has acquired fleet management and hire company Motiva in the UK, following on from the recent acquisition of Fleet Hire. Motiva's 4,300 vehicles will complement Fleet Hire's 6,500, the broker notes, and provide for synergies.
The purchase price is value accretive and the outlook for the business remains solid, the broker suggests. Outperform and $4.37 target retained.
Target price is $4.37 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $1.12
If SGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 37.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has expanded its presence in the UK with the acquisition of Motiva. The purchase price was GBP12.4m. The deal is expected to be 3.5% accretive to cash earnings per share.
Morgan Stanley likes these small bolt-on acquisitions as they add earnings and opportunity for growth from a low base. The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating and $3.60 target. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.35
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 37.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TOX as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Tox Free's AGM revealed new contract wins at Ichthys and GLNG. Add in the retention of the Fortescue and ALNG contracts and the core business is on a strong footing heading into FY18, Macquarie suggests. There was no update on the Chevron contract, but this is becoming less of an issue, the broker believes.
With the core business winning contracts, the earnings outlook is solid and valuation is inexpensive, leading Macquarie to upgrade to Outperform. Target rises to $2.79 from $2.65.
Target price is $2.79 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.37
If TOX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.52, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 62.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WFD as Overweight (1) -
For the sector generally, the broker believes A-REITs are caught between a rising bond yield environment globally and low inflation domestically, historically a scenario which drives underperformance.
Hence, the broker's industry view is downgraded to Cautious from Attractive. The broker looks for a stabilisation of yields as a catalyst to turn positive.
Overweight rating retained. Target is reduced to $10.10 from $11.20.
Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $8.85 Difference: $1.25
If WFD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.15, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.3, implying annual growth of -78.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 32.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
AAD - | ARDENT LEISURE | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.15 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.15 | ||
ALL - | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $15.47 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $15.47 | ||
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $15.47 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $15.47 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $15.47 | ||
ALQ - | ALS LIMITED | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.49 |
AMC - | AMCOR | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $14.38 |
AYS - | AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.86 |
BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $25.61 |
CKF - | COLLINS FOODS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.06 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.06 | ||
CYB - | CYBG | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.78 |
GMG - | GOODMAN GRP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.49 |
GNC - | GRAINCORP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.71 |
GPT - | GPT | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.72 |
IOF - | INVESTA OFFICE | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.38 |
MPL - | MEDIBANK PRIVATE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.64 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.64 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.64 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.64 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.64 | ||
MYR - | MYER | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.28 |
SEH - | SINO GAS & ENERGY | Initiation of coverage with Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.10 |
SGF - | SG FLEET | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.25 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.25 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.25 | ||
TOX - | TOX FREE SOLUTIONS | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.42 |
WFD - | WESTFIELD CORP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.85 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 14 |
3. Hold | 12 |
4. Reduce | 2 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Friday 02 December 2016
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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