Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for 29Metals remains at 50c and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.155
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 55.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A11 as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie upgrades Atlantic Lithium to Neutral from Underperform and raises the target to $0.32 from $0.24, given higher longer-term lithium prices have improved the project valuation and the return outlook.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.01
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Aeris Resources remains at 70c and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.305
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 96.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Aurelia Metals remains at 40c and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.165
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

Citi sees AMP’s $150m on-market buyback as a positive step, helping to address investor concerns following the FY25 result.

The buyback is expected to provide greater context to flat dividend guidance and signal a preference for capital returns over M&A.

This move reduces the likelihood of large-scale acquisitions, suggest the analysts, while surplus capital and cash remain supportive.

Platform growth and improved Superannuation and Investments (S&I) flows underpin the operational outlook, according to Citi, despite potential market volatility.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $1.80.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.55
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by early April, the analyst expects copper and copper equities to rally, while aluminium and coal may consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the event of an energy price shock and a prolonged conflict of more than two months, UBS sees greater downside risk for copper and further upside for aluminium and coal.

Gold is expected to regain its safe haven and diversification appeal, despite a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields.

The target price for Bellevue Gold falls to $2.20 from $2.25, with an unchanged Buy rating.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.77
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 51.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by early April, the analyst expects copper and copper equities to rally, while aluminium and coal may consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and an extended conflict of more than two months, UBS sees greater downside for copper and further upside for aluminium and coal.

Gold is expected to regain its safe haven and diversification appeal, despite a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields.

UBS notes BHP Group is preferred over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) due to its cleaner and higher-quality portfolio, while retaining a Neutral rating and $52 target.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $50.37 Difference: $1.63
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.67, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BWP as Reinstate Coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie asserts BWP Trust is one of the most defensive A-REITs and the share price appears "overly pessimistic". The broker reinstates coverage with an Outperform rating and $3.90 target.

Given demand for the sector Wesfarmers' 23.5% stake provides a catalyst for a re-rating, Macquarie observes, as it carries strategic value, providing exposure to a scale portfolio and opportunity for growth. The trust has long-WALE, strong tenant covenants and low gearing.

Internalisation has improved the cost of capital and there is also opportunity for growth beyond Bunnings, the broker adds, where yields are higher and churn is greater.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.2
If BWP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.99, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Catapult Sports announced a FY26 trading update, with annual contracted value to be between US$133m-US$134m against Bell Potter's forecast of US$131m. Free cash flow, ex transaction costs, is between US$5m-US$6m versus the analyst's forecast of US$9.5m.

Management earnings (EBITDA) are indicated to grow by around 50% y/y, which equates to a positive beat above the expected underlying growth of over 20%.

The free cash flow miss is considered a timing issue on collections, and the balance sheet remains robust, with around US$50m in cash.

Target price slips to $4.75 from $4.85, with no change in Buy rating.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $1.34
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.66, suggesting upside of 89.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for base metals exposure Chalice Mining rises by 10c to $2.00 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.63
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 117.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Champion Iron rises to $6.60 from $6.25 and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $1.23
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Carnaby Resources remains at 70c and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.29
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Coronado Global Resources rises to 75c from 50c and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.43
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 134% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 41.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by early April, the analyst expects copper and copper equities to rally, while aluminium and coal may consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and an extended conflict of more than two months, UBS sees greater downside for copper and further upside for aluminium and coal.

Gold is expected to regain its safe haven and diversification appeal, despite a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields.

UBS raises the target price for Coronado Global Resources to 42c from 40c and upgrades the stock to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.1
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.48, suggesting upside of 41.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Capstone Copper rises to $16.30 from $15.40 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: $6.16
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.78, suggesting upside of 53.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Centaurus Metals remains at 68c and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.11
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CYL as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Target price on Catalyst Metals moves to $11 from $11.25 with an unchanged Buy rating.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $5
If CYL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.61, suggesting upside of 129.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DPM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie upgrades DPM Metals to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $59 from $58.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $47.50 Difference: $11.5
If DPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights heightened Middle East conflict is accelerating global demand for counter-drone (C-UAS) technologies, as high-cost missile defence proves unsustainable against low-cost drones, prompting a shift towards scalable and cost-effective solutions

Procurement timelines are compressing, with increased orders from the Middle East and US, while threats to civilian infrastructure and the emergence of interceptor drones are expanding use cases beyond traditional military applications

The analyst explains additive manufacturing is gaining traction as defence supply chains face capacity constraints, with US agencies prioritising faster production and inventory replenishment amid rising demand

DroneShield and Electro Optic Systems ((EOS)) are veiwed as key beneficiaries in C-UAS, alongside Elsight ((ELS)) and Codan ((DCA)) in drone capability enablement, while Titomic ((TTT)), AML3D ((AL3)) , 6K Additive ((6KA)) and IperionX ((IPX)) are leveraged to increased defence-driven additive manufacturing demand.

DroneShield is Buy rated with a $4.80 target price.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.92
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie increases the target for Elevra Lithium to $10.30 from $9.20 and retains an Outperform rating on an improved lithium price view for the long-term.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: $2.3
If ELV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie upgrades Evolution Mining to Neutral from Underperform, raising the target to $12.70 from $11.20. The broker rejigs its target methodology for the stock and notes its strong track record of delivery.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $12.46 Difference: $0.24
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.73, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FFM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for FireFly Metals remains at $2.30 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.66
If FFM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Fortescue stays at $22.00 and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $20.19 Difference: $1.81
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.46, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by early April, the analyst expects copper and copper equities to rally, while aluminium and coal may consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and an extended conflict of more than two months, UBS sees greater downside for copper and further upside for aluminium and coal.

Gold is expected to regain its safe haven and diversification appeal, despite a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields.

The target price for Fortescue rises to $20.40 from $20.00, with a Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $20.19 Difference: $0.21
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.46, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GGP as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie upgrades Greatland Resources to Outperform from Neutral and the target is raised to $13.50 from $13.20. The stock becomes one of the broker's preferred mid-cap golds amid positive catalysts.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $9.76 Difference: $3.74
If GGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.77, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie lifts its target for Global Lithium Resources to $0.70 from $0.65 and maintains an Outperform rating.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.225
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFT as Outperform (1) -

Infratil has maintained FY26 guidance while lifting FY27 EBITDAF guidance by 6%. The latest investor briefing sets out a "credible" case, Macquarie suggests, for growth in global market share of 1-2% or 2.5-5.0GW by 2030.

FY26 capital expenditure continues to run at the lower end of the targeted $13-16m.

Amid a predominance of positive risks the broker maintains an Outperform rating with an unchanged target of $13.63.

Current Price is $9.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $11.82, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie lifts its target for IGO Ltd to $9.75 from $9.25 and retains an Outperform rating, remaining constructive on the lithium market amid continued inventory drawdown.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $7.93 Difference: $1.82
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.96, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley takes stock of the potential impact of a weaker economic outlook on Judo Capital's earnings. A skew to small-medium enterprise/business banking makes the company's FY27 earnings more vulnerable than others to a weaker economic outlook.

Under "slowdown" scenarios the broker estimates potential earnings downgrades of -20-30% for FY27 if loan growth slows to 8-10% and loan losses rise to -80-100 basis points of average loans.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, assessing the share price has already factored in a high probability of its bear case. Target is reduced to $1.90 from $2.20. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.455
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 58.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Jupiter Mines rises to 32c from 27c and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.055
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie lifts its target for Liontown to $1.80 from $1.75, and maintains a Neutral rating given limited upside to returns over the next 12 months.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.035
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Mineral Resources falls to $72 from $76 and the Outperform is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $56.69 Difference: $15.31
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.20, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating for Newmont Corp and raises the target to $191 from $185. The stock remains the broker's key pick among the major gold producers given a diversified asset base.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $191.00 Current Price is $146.85 Difference: $44.15
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.00, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for New Hope rises to $7.00 from $4.80 and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.66 Difference: $1.34
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting downside of -13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Nickel Industries remains at $1.10 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.2
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 42.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie lifts its target for PLS Group to $5.50 from $5.00 and retains an Outperform rating, remaining constructive on the lithium market amid continued inventory drawdown.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.35
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $0.65 target for PMET Resources as higher long-term lithium prices are offset by funding assumption changes.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27. Citi

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.215
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMT as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to view there is an attractive "risk-reward" in lithium and the possibility of another upcycle, as the Middle East conflict supports EV demand.

There are ongoing lithium deficits, with scope for further tightening driven by higher EV and battery storage demand, with US$4,000/t spodumene expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027.

PMET Resources remains Buy rated with an 80c target.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.365
If PMT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Rio Tinto rises to $168 from $155 and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $168.00 Current Price is $153.23 Difference: $14.77
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $155.50, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Rio Tinto retains a Neutral rating and $160 target price, with BHP Group ((BHP)) the preferred stock. 

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $153.23 Difference: $6.77
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $155.50, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

Macquarie upgrades Ramelius Resources to Outperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $4.80.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $1.28
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 49.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Regis Resources retains Buy rating and a lower target of $9.45 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $6.26 Difference: $3.19
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for South32 rises to $5.60 from $5.00 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $1.57
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SCG as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights Scentre Group remains one of the most exposed stocks to higher interest rates, with "elevated" gearing and drawn debt, compounded by a lowering in interest rate hedging to 38% from 82% between December 2026 and December 2027.

Some $5.7bn in interest rate hedges are set to expire at low rates of 2.6% in 2027, prompting a move to higher floating base rates.

The analyst estimates a circa $100m interest cost impact based on the floating rate for group earnings in FY27/FY28.

Current EPS estimates sit below consensus by -2% and -4% for FY27/FY28, with scope for downside risks to earnings forecasts for the market.

Sell rating and $3.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.14
If SCG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.06, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Sandfire Resources remains at $20.10 and the rating is upgraded to Outperform rating from Neutral. The company becomes Macquarie's preferred copper exposure given low costs and an attractive valuation multiple.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $15.88 Difference: $4.22
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.11, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

A Buy rating on Vault Minerals is retained with a new target of $7.60 from $7.40.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $3.44
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.50, suggesting upside of 89.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WGX as Buy (1) -

UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.

In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.

Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.

Target price remains unchanged at $10.25 with a Buy rating.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $4.83
If WGX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.50, suggesting upside of 70.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.

In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.

Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.

The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.

The target for Whitehaven Coal rises to $9.25 from $8.00 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $9.23 Difference: $0.02
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.35, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero’s partnership with Anthropic highlights ongoing collaboration between AI developers and software providers, Citi notes.

The move aligns with management’s strategy of leveraging AI assistants as a distribution and go-to-market channel, the analyst explains.

A key risk is that AI assistants could evolve into primary platforms for small businesses, the broker cautions, potentially disintermediating software providers.

Xero’s app ecosystem and go-to-market strength are seen as important competitive advantages.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $144.80.

Target price is $144.80 Current Price is $72.84 Difference: $71.96
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $178.10, suggesting upside of 153.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources