Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Management at AGL Energy has upgraded profit (UNPAT) guidance to $760-810m from $680-780m and earnings (EBITDA) to $2,120-2,200m from $2,025-2,175m.

The key driver of the upgrade is increased generation from brown coal, explains Macquarie, which increases its FY24-26 earnings forecasts by 7%, 3%, and 2%, respectively.

NSW and VIC fleet generation was 1TWh and 0.4TWh (respectively) better than the analyst expected, while the timing of generation was also optimised to improve pricing.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target rises to $10.30 from $9.60.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $0.29
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.56, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Citi lowers its target for ANZ Bank to $24.50 from $26 following 1H results. Core earnings are still declining, with investors unsure of the strategic merit of management's current strategy, making it difficult to identify the earnings trough, explains the broker.

The Sell rating is maintained and the bank falls to third place in Citi's order of preference for the four major banks.

The broker's initial response on results day was summarised as follows:

Citi's initial response to today's financial release states ANZ Bank's cash earnings beat market consensus by 0.5% while missing the broker's forecast by -0.5%.

It's what the French call: quantite negligable.

The net interest margin looks at face value a big miss, but the broker assures ex-markets the NIM is 1.63%, in line. Core earnings missed by -2% but there's a big beat in BDDs.

Dividend declared of 83c, only 65% franked, and no 'bonus' to make up for the lower franking, the analysts comment. There is also a $2bn share buyback.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $28.79 Difference: minus $4.29 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Underperform (5) -

ANZ Bank's 1H pre-provision result was slightly ahead of Macquarie's expectations underpinned by strong markets income.

Underlying pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) -ex markets- was a slight miss compared to the broker's estimate, driven by softer-than-expected average interest-earning assets (AIEA) and higher costs.

Assuming an around -$2bn yearly investment spend, Macquarie now believes the new cost base for the bank is around $10.6bn.

The broker's target falls to $26.50 from $27 after allowing for lower bad and doubtful debts and higher markets income, offset by cost-led downgrades in future years. It's felt ANZ's capacity to sustain its current dividend is difficult. Underperform.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $28.79 Difference: minus $2.29 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

ANZ Bank served up a mixed 1H24 earnings report with higher expenses offseting a slightly better than forecast cash profit according to Morgan Stanley, although this met consenus expectations as a result of lower loan loss provisions.

Notably, the dividend at 83c per share was  2 cents better than forecast and the $2bn on-market buyback $0.5bn above the analyst's estimate.

Headline margin declined by -9 basis points with a -7 basis point impact from markets.

Expenses were greater by 0.5%, 2% above consensus, due to what appears to be higher restructuring costs and 'strategic investments' ANZ Plus and the cloud.

Management didn't offer guidance. The broker's FY25 EPS forecasts are raised by 2% for FY24, due to lower loan losses and FY25 EPS lowered by -3%.

The rating is downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight, due to the strategic challenges for the bank, which makes earnings upgrades challenging, says the broker.

Target price is lowered to $27.70 from $27.90. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $27.70 Current Price is $28.79 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

ANZ Bank reported 1H24 earnings, a -5% miss on Morgans' expectations, ahead of consensus.

The markets division impacted on revenues which came in flat on the previous corresponding period, and net interest income, down -2% on the year, represented 76% of revenue.

Net interest margins also missed. The analyst expects a further decline to circa 140 basis points by FY25.

The 83cps dividend (65% franked) was above expectations, and the $2bn buyback was anticipated.

Morgans lowers the EPS and DPS forecasts marginally for FY24 and FY25.

Hold rating retained and the target is lowered slightly to $25.73 from $25.95.

Target price is $25.73 Current Price is $28.79 Difference: minus $3.06 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Hold (3) -

ANZ Bank reported 1H24 results that essentially met expectations for Ord Minnett, including robust market income, reasonable loan growth and lower than forecast margins in the retail segment, offset by softer bad debt provisions.

The group's cash profits were down -7% compared to the previous corresponding period, considered "strong". The downward trend in earnings is forecast to unwind into FY25.

The 83c DPS is up from 81c last year and the broker raises the FY24 DPS forecast to $1.66 from $1.62.

Hold rating and $31 target price are maintained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $28.79 Difference: $2.21
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Neutral rating retained, as well as the $30 price target on second consideration of ANZ Bank's interim result, released yesterday. Estimates have been lifted by between 7%-3% (assisted by the $2bn buyback).

Yesterday, the broker responded as follows:

UBS believes the market's focus is shifting towards the integration of the Suncorp bank business, while today's capital return announcement should be positively received.

On the broker's initial assessment, ANZ Bank's financial release today seems to have beaten expectations on most key metrics, including the interim dividend of 83c.

UBS categorises today's release as "largely in line", with positives coming through the $2bn buyback, the Suncorp bank integration and the prospect of further capital return.

ANZ Bank is the broker's local favourite, with the broker believing it is the least exposed bank to structural headwinds to retail bank profits.

Neutral rating and $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.79 Difference: $1.21
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Buy rating and $44.90 target are maintained following ARB Corp's Q3 trading update, which, on Citi's initial assessment, showed growth a touch softer than market projections.

Exports are returning to growth and momentum in the Australian aftermarket division is accelerating; both are viewed as stand-out positives.

ARB Corp is the broker's Top Pick in the small cap auto parts sector on the ASX.

Target price is $44.90 Current Price is $38.66 Difference: $6.24
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.80, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

The Buy rating and $2.50 target are maintained for Accent Group. The analysts remain positive on recovering trends with positive commentary from global footwear brands such as Skechers & Deckers (Hoka). 

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.665
If AX1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CCX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

The buy rating and 62c target are maintained for City Chic Collective.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.25
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Computershare will pay down debt and fund ongoing business operations after completing the sale last week of its US Mortgage Services business for $712m.

Management noted the impact from the sale upon FY24 earnings will be "broadly neutral", as the reduction in interest expense from cash proceeds will largely offset the positive earnings contribution from the sold business.

The Outperform rating and $29 target maintained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $26.71 Difference: $2.29
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

The Buy rating and $4 target are maintained for Cettire, which offers a large selection of in-demand personal luxury goods.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.17 Difference: $0.83
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Australia Conference, 2024, is responsible for a flurry of corporate presentations. One participant was Cleanaway Waste Management, which reiterated FY24 EBIT guidance of around $350m.

An operational focus on EBIT-based measurement is yielding fundamental change, notes Macquarie.

Management is targeting a yearly reduction of -$50m for maintenance capex in perpetuity, driven by optimised fleet management
as well as landfill optimisation, observes the analyst.

The target rises to $3.20 from $3.10. Outperform.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.47
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.79, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CWY as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes Cleanaway Waste Management has provided conservative guidance for FY24. Management has kept its targets for FY26. Maintenance capex guidance has been reduced by -$50m from FY25.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.80 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.07
If CWY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.79, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DHG as Buy (1) -

Recent residential data on the platforms indicate a reversal since a plateauing in March, with a lift in new listing in the June quarter for Domain Holdings Australia.

Bell Potter suggests that Domain Holdings Australia is picking up market share from REA Group ((REA)) from a speedier rate of new listing from sold stock.

The 12% lift in average price appears be holding with agents returning to the platform in the 2H24.

The broker is looking to another trading update, however, current data allow for a lift in FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by 9% and 5%, respectively. 

Unchanged Buy rating and $3.75 target price due to a rise in the cost of capital on the valuation.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.48
If DHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Buy (1) -

It appears Domain Holdings Australia's Q3 update has surprised to the upside, judging from Citi's initial assessment.

The broker does highlight capex is $4m higher than expected so costs are tracking higher than expected. States the broker: one of the key questions is how much cost growth is expected in FY25?

Also, listing volume growth is still tracking below REA Group ((REA)), though the gap is closing.

Buy. Target 43.85.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.58
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

A number of changes were revealed in the latest scoping study on the Pioneer Dome lithium project from Develop Global according to Bell Potter.

The mine is moving from open-pit to underground in the 3rd year with a reduction in annual production guidance to 162kt from 172kt, alongside a 26% lift in operating costs at $186/t ore.

Long term pricing was guided to US$1393/t which is viewed as conservative. The Woodlawn project is anticpated to restart production in the 1H2025.

No changes are made to the analyst's earnings forecasts.

The Buy rating is retained and the price target is lowered to $3.20 from $3.30 due to the scoping study assumption changes.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.86
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

In a presentation by Dexus around March quarter highlights, Citi observes relatively stable operational metrics, on a year on year basis.

Office occupancy was 94.4% compared to market levels of 86.5%, while industrial occupancy of 96.6% remains relatively resilient, in the broker's view.

Management maintained FY24 distribution and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) guidance.

The price target for Dexus remains at $8.20, alongside a Neutral rating. 

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.06 Difference: $1.14
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes management of Dexus have re-affirmed 3Q24 guidance around a 48c dividends per share.

Office occupancy stands around 94.4% while cirica 16% of the industrial portfolio is under-rented. Both metrics are broadly in line with the 1H24 results.

The broker considers the strategic aims of the new CEO as too wide sweeping, lacking a depth of detail for its liking, however, the analyst does point to the more conservative tone regarding developments in the future.

Some $300m has been raised for the DREP2 fund, although details on assets under management weren't included.

An Underweight rating and $8.14 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.14 Current Price is $7.06 Difference: $1.08
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

Morgans notes Frontier Digital Ventures reported a 2% increase in revenue and a -5% decline in EBITDA in 1Q24 on the previous corresponding period due to a weak performance from Zameen.

The associates (Zameen) were a "drag" on earnings, whereas LATAM achieved breakeven in cashflows, and Mena MArketplaces Group and FDV Asia proved cashflow positive.

Morgans lowers the EPS forecasts by over 10% for FY24 and FY25 to more conservative estimates on the back of the results.

An Add rating is retained and the target trimmed to 71c from 79c.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.185
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts, upon first glance, find Flight Centre Travel's trading updated didn't provide much detail, but management has re-affirmed guidance for FY24.

Reasons to stay positive, according to the broker, include decreasing airfares, a re-acceleration in US corporate travel, and strong international travel which has now overtaken domestic travel in Australia.

Buy rating and target price of $24.15.

Target price is $24.15 Current Price is $20.59 Difference: $3.56
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.51, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

UBS spotted a marginal slowdown in the rate of occupancy improvement since the February result update in G8 Education's quarterly update. The broker still believes market share is being won (backed up by industry feedback).

Cost control remains a focus, observe the analysts, especially around wage rostering and agency usage levels - which is "well below prior year" according to management at the helm.

As per UBS, labour shortages remain a key constraint to further occupancy uplifts. The broker finds risk-reward balanced at current level. Neutral. Target $1.25 (unchanged).

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.01
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Buy (1) -

Net infows of US$1.7bn in April for GQG Partners reflect unexpected strength post the robust 1Q24 inflows, Total net inflows for the first four months of 2024 are US$6.3bn with a 15.7% increase in annualised FUM, notes Ord Minnett.

The group's FUM outperformed the MSCI World Index by 1.7% in April. Some minor 1-2% upgrade adjustments in FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts are made post the update.

Ord Minnett is expecting compound average EPS growth of 27% over the next years and views the stock as fundamentally inexpensive with an attractive dividend yield.

The Buy rating is unchanged; the target raised to $2.85 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.34
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HMC as Hold (3) -

HMC Capital upgraded FY24 EPS guidance to 40c from 33c as a result of non-cash gains from the HMC-CP1 fund, while the dividend per share guidance remained unchanged at 12c, in line with Bell Potter's forecast.

The upgrade in NAV for HMC-CP1 to $1.49/unit from $1.36/unit in January includes five new investments including GrainCorp ((GNC). The fund has reduced the Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) holding to 15% from 19%, but this remains the largest position.

The HMC Energy Transition Fund is due to launch in the beginning of 2H2024 with a $2bn start size that should grow to $5bn with overseas expansion.

FUM stands at $11bn with a medium term $20bn target. Bell Potter lifts the FY24 EPS forecast by 3%, due to the update.

Hold rating retained and the target is raised to $7.30 from $7.05.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.4
If HMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

HMC Capital announced an upgrade to FY24 guidance from 'no less than 33c' to 40c pre-tax EPS on the back of higher performance fees and better unrealised investment gains for HMC Capital Partners (HMCCP), notes the analyst at Morgan Stanley.

The new positions disclosed by the fund include a 40% stake in Sigma Healtcare ((SIG)), 24% in Lend Lease ((LLC)), 18% in Ingenia Communities ((INA)), 12% in GrainCorp ((GNC)), and 7% undisclosed and cash.

Management also highlighted the strategic pathway to $20bn in funds under management compared to $7.8bn currently, including a $2bn new Energy Transition Fund and a doubling in HMCCP, as well as a $2bn private credit strategy.

The broker lifts FY24 EPS to 38.2c from 32.6c. Equal Weight rating. Industry View: In-Line. The target is increased to $7.05 from $6.81. 

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: $0.15
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on wealth manager Insignia Financial with a Hold rating, as the largest potential upside (within superannuation) is unlikely to materialise before FY26. A target of $3.60 is set.

Due to revenue margin and net flow headwinds, the analysts are forecasting only modest growth over the next three years. A 3.6% EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is anticipated.

The broker highlights Insignia is undergoing significant change including an Advice reset, along with synergy realisation and platform upgrades. A wrap platform consolidation has just been completed.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $1.2
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

ikeGPS Group offered a 1Q2024 trading update including five new next generation PoleForeman subscription agreements with large US utilities.

Total contract value (TCV) has been boosted by NZ$12m post the new product launches at the back end of 2023, highlights Bell Potter.

The transition to more quality contract wins and higher margin revenues is viewed optimistically.

There are no changes to the broker's earnings forecasts at this stage, but there is potential upgrade scope to subscription revenues in FY25.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 63 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.2
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IMD as Outperform (1) -

Lower drilling activity weighed on Imdex's 3Q trading update, which Macquarie acknowledges is reflective of a tough market afflicted by falling exploration budgets and reduced mining activity.

The broker believes the company is currently well placed to benefit from a pick-up in drilling activity driven by strong industry fundamentals. Stronger commodity prices are driving improved exploration budgets and increased junior capital raising activity, notes the analyst.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $2.30 from $2.45 on the broker's lower earnings forecasts, which reflect the softer
3Q trading update and limited near-term visibility into an increase in activity levels.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.3
If IMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Imdex's trading update missed UBS' forecasts. While disappointing, the broker sees a positive in that Imdex continues to show ability to outperform its market generally when times are tough.

Forecasts have been reduced but the broker continues to see significant upside when the tide turns for global capex spending in the mining sector.

At present, Imdex is probably at a cyclical low point, argue the analysts. They draw some comfort from the recent strong rally in key commodities gold and copper.

Buy. Target has lost -5c to $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.2
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IRE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett suggests a refocus by management upon core business should ultimately yield revenue and margin improvements for Iress via increased product take-up and reduced client churn.

The broker forecasts the sum of revenue growth and earnings (EBITDA) margins for the core Australian business will average 33% per annum over the five-year period to 2028.

Revenue and margins will grow yearly at 7% and 26%, respectively, up from 2% and 19% in 2023, according to Ord Minnett's forecasts.

The Hold rating and $9.60 target price are retained.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.62 Difference: $0.98
If IRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is looking for Judo Capital to maintain guidance for FY24 and FY25 with 3Q24 profits before tax of circa $26m to be announced at its upcoming quarterly update this week.

The broker suggests the market will be focusing on possible slower loan growth, the trends in both lending and term deposit margins, as well as any comments on credit quality.

Looking ahead, the analyst is forecasting annual loan growth of $1.7bn over the next 5-years, but for Judo Capital to achieve a return on equity in the low-to-mid teens by 2028, the loan book would need to grow at near $2.5bn annually.

Equally, Morgan Stanley considers it will most likely take longer for the bank to achieve some of its metric goals.

Equal weight rating and $1.25 target price are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LAU as Add (1) -

Wet weather impacts had a hefty toll on Lindsay Australia's operations over the March quarter, leading to a downgrade in FY24 EBITDA guidance between -11% to -13%, to around $88m to $94m.

Morgans accepts these might be one-off factors, however, the analyst is choosing to be more conservative around the recovery in horticulture volumes and utilisation rates.

Trading was impacted for four weeks in March from major rail outages on the East-West rail freight lane which have continued into April and account for some 80% of rail revenues.

Morgans cuts EPS forecasts by -21% for FY24 and -13% for FY25, resulting in a decline in the target price to $1.20 from $1.45.

Add rating retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.3
If LAU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reduces its target for Lindsay Australia to $1.31 from $1.52 after management lowered FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $88-$94m from $102-$108m.

Reasons for the downgrade, explain the analysts, include: flow on weather impacts in Far North Queensland; rail outages on the key East-West line during March and April; cyclical softness in the rural segment; and subdued volumes post-Easter.

The weather impacts in QLD and rail outages are largely abnormal events, and the East-West rail line is back in operation, notes the broker.

The analysts see potential for a cyclical upswing in industry conditions, following the weather impacted year. The Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.31 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.41
If LAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Buy (1) -

After providing breakup of settlement expectations at each community, Lifestyle Communities has given investors some comfort around FY24 and FY25 guidance, suggests Citi. This follows management's second downgrade to FY24 guidance last month.

The company also introduced FY25 settlement revenue expectations of $260-$300m, in line with the broker, which supports the
volume guidance provided.

At the current valuation, the analysts see upside for the stock price, following a -30% fall in 2024.

The Buy rating and $17.90 target are retained.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $5.05
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.52, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

The broker's target for Lovisa Holdings climbs by 17% to $36 driven by earnings upgrades from FY26/27 onwards, due to upgraded long term store network assumptions, and a higher assumed earnings multiple.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $31.68 Difference: $4.32
If LOV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.36, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts earnings (EBITDA) of $307m, 9% ahead of the consensus estimate, when News Corp reports 3Q results tomorrow.

The target falls to $42 from $43. Half of this fall is due to higher reinvestment in Dow Jones and Realtor (Move) and softer
advertising trends in Australia and Dow Jones, explains the broker. The balance reflects a stronger US dollar.

The Outperform rating is maintained. Macquarie recommends investors take advantage of any post-result share price weakness.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $38.57 Difference: $3.43
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.13, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Origin Energy's presentation about Octopus Energy reconfirmed the upbeat view of the company for Morgan Stanley.

The broker details an positive outlook for Octopus' Kraken subscribers which should reach 100m by 2027 and Origin Energy's domestic Kraken license in the National Electricty Market is considered a source of competitive advantage.

Origin Energy's -$1.2bn investment or 22.7% stake in Octopus Energy is worth $3bn in the current market, but concerns around the lack of clarity on the earnings for Octopus Energy holds the analyst back from a more upbeat bull case valuation of $4.3bn.

Equal-weight rating and target price of $9.26. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $9.26 Current Price is $10.06 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

The analysts' target for Propel Funeral Partners rises to 6.20 from $6.10 driven by earnings upgrades from FY25 onwards after management this week announced multiple acquisitions in regional Australia and New Zealand.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.48 Difference: $0.72
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

The Buy rating and $35 target for Premier Investments are maintained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $29.81 Difference: $5.19
If PMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.95, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXA as Hold (3) -

Pexa Group provided a 3Q24 trading update at a conference presentation which pointed to higher interest expenses and tax forecasts for the FY24.

The group lifted the national market shares in the 3Q24 by 1% to 90% from the 1H24. Digital growth in the 2H24 is forecast to lift revenue between 7% and 21% over the 1H24.

Morgans considers the major takeaway was FY24 guidance being retained and the analyst slightly adjusts the FY24 EPS forecast by -5% and FY25 by -6%.

Post the partnership with Natwest in the UK, the valuation for Pexa Group is lifted and the target price rises to $13.50 from $12.19.

Hold rating unchanged.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.85 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If PXA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.24, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

UBS analysts report Pexa Group's market update revealed Q3 transaction volumes in Australia slightly below forecasts, while the UK was ahead.

Earnings estimates have been lifted. The broker expresses its confidence that Pexa will ultimately be successful in the UK.

Buy rating retained while the price target lifts to $16.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.85 Difference: $2.15
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.24, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QBE as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of QBE Insurance with a Hold rating and a target price of $18.47.

While acknowledging numerous positive tailwinds for the company, such as pricing power, improving underwriting profits and stable investment returns, the analyst is cautious on the outlook for the company.

Bell Potter sees the insurance industry as "cyclical" and expensive premiums cause policy holders to reduce the costs via either a reduction in coverage or switching to another provider.

Secondly, the broker thinks the industry is nearing the top of the cycle.  The stock is viewed as fully valued at current levels.

Target price is $18.47 Current Price is $17.35 Difference: $1.12
If QBE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.29, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie leaves its earnings forecasts for QBE Insurance unchanged after searching for potential readthroughs for the company from recent results by 23 global reinsurers.

The broker concludes premium rates are growing at a slower pace (around 6.6% for QBE’s mix), with Australia now rolling off all-time highs.

QBE is currently trading at a 14.3% premium to weighted international peers, which compares to a three-year average discount of circa -1.3%. Macquarie suggests the relative premium reflects greater impacts on peers from global economic challenges.

The Neutral rating and $18 target are maintained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.35 Difference: $0.65
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.29, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

QBE Insurance is expected to report its 1Q24 update on May 10, with Morgan Stanley looking for a slowdown in global pricing.

US peers suggest that rates are firm in the mid-market and that claims inflation is not increasing.

Corporate and commercial pricing is softening in the UK and Pacific, including Australia, where inflation is also easing.

Morgan Stanley raises the forecast yield by 30 basis points which in turn drives a 4% increase in the FY24 EPS estimate and a 10 basis point rise in yield, and lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 1%. The broker stands 4% above market consensus

Overweight rating unchanged with scope for an uplift in the FY25 PER valuation. The target is raised to $20.10 from $19.80. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $17.35 Difference: $2.75
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.29, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

The Buy rating and 13c target for Retail Food are unchanged.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.06
If RFG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources has approved the development of two new underground projects at Duketon which will deliver mine life of around two years beyond Macquarie's prior estimate.

The Garden Well Main will be a new mining area below the Garden Well open pit, while Rosemont Stage 3 underground is an extension of the current Rosemont underground, explains the analyst.

Outperform. The $2.60 target is retained after the broker's near-term EPS downgrades are offset by life extensions and long-term EPS upgrades.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.48
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

While Macquarie slightly reduces its earnings forecasts for Reliance Worldwide after adopting a more cautious view on interest rate cuts, a recent presentation by management highlights the business is performing to plan.

Just last week, Reliance reiterated FY24 guidance, notes the broker. Management is currently more focused on efficiency enhancement while at the same time positioning for a market recovery, explains the analyst.

The Outperform rating and target price of $6.10 are retained.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: $1.04
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Citi reduces its FY24 earnings (EBIT) forecast to US$22m from US$100m after management at Sims announced underlying earnings in the 2H will be marginally lower than the 1H financial result of US$13m. Consensus was previously forecasting US$110m.

While cost-outs are on track, the key driver for lower EBIT expectations is SA Recycling in the US, where 2H earnings are expected to be down on the 1H.

Citi suggests the time is right to pick-up shares in Sims as earnings are currently at cyclical lows and should lift beyond FY24.

The Buy rating and $13.50 target are retained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.06 Difference: $2.44
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Management at Sims had previously guided for underlying earnings (EBIT) growth in the 2H, notes Macquarie, but now expects a decline versus the 1H.

Weakness in A&NZ has been driven by impacts from increased China ferrous exports, explains the broker, while SA Recycling in the US experienced margin compression from a sudden fall in selling prices, along with unfavourable inventory levels.

The Outperform rating is retained, as Macquarie believes EPS recovery potential is high, supported by management's cost-out program, which remains on track. The target falls to $13 from $16.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.06 Difference: $1.94
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Underweight (5) -

Sims reported a meaningful downgrade to 2H24 earnings guidance as the two businesses which had been driving growth, SA Recycling in the US and ANZ stumbled.

Morgan Stanley highlights the poor sentiment in global steel markets is flowing through to weaknes in scrap markets. Management guided to a weaker EBIT for the 2H24 compared to a $13m profit in the 1H24.

Even if the 2H24 EBIT meets the previous half, Morgan Stanley points to a -76% downgrade in forecasts compared to consensus estimates.

While this may mark the bottom of the cycle, and some improvements from North America alongside UK Metal are in train, the broker neverthess downgrades EBIT estimates by -72% for FY24 and -37% for FY25.

Underweight rating retained and the target is lowered to $10 from $12. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.06 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Buy (1) -

UBS had upgraded its rating for Sims to Buy from Neutral in late March, taking a favourable view on the recovery ahead post profit warning(s).

As it turns out, Sims management has been forced to issue yet another profit warning. That Buy rating is retained as the broker points to cost-out initiatives that will produce a positive result.

A second reason is UBS expects the UK metals business to be sold as part of a strategic review and proceeds from that sale could be above the $243m book value.

Target drops to $13.50 (-7%) on reduced estimates (which still imply a fierce recovery in FY25).

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $11.06 Difference: $3.24
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIQ as Buy (1) -

Smartgroup Corp's Q1 trading update fell a little short of Citi's projections, but the analysts highlight lease demand continues to grow and operating leverage is still to come through.

The broker expects staffing investment likely to slow (ex SA) and operating leverage to initially flow in 2H24 before stepping up in FY25.

Buy. Target $11.55.

Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $2.55
If SIQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.26, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TEA as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of Tasmea, which commenced trading on the ASX on April 29, with an Add rating and $2.05 target price.

The company offers specialised maintenance and shutdown services to aging plant and equipment across the industrial and retail sectors.

The company historically acquired 17 businesses since FY01 and the FY24 prospectus forecast guides to $435m in FY24 (a 29% compound average growth rate from FY07 to FY24).

The broker aligns the FY24 ptofit at $54m in line with the prospectus, growing to $66m in FY26 from organic growth and scaling up of existing contracts.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.47
If TEA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes lottery revenue from the beginning of 2024 until the end of April is up 49% on the previous corresponding period, though like-for-like revenue growth for Powerball has recently moderated.

The broker sees upside to its 2H earnings forecast if Powerball jackpots to $100m next week.

Citi is in line with consensus for FY25 earnings. The Neutral rating and target price of $5.50 are retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.47
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TPW as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

Bell Potter remains cautious on the short-term outlook for Temple & Webster in line with broader industry trends and maintains a Hold rating. Target $12. 

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.05, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter sees a more optimistic outlook for the Retail sector from June onwards supported by upcoming Stage 3 income tax cuts and more favourable comparatives for companies with exposure to Australian non-food retail sales.

From among the broker's coverage, the key picks are Lovisa Holdings and Premier Investments for global roll-out potential. Accent Group and Universal Store are also favoured for exposure to the younger consumer demographic, a likely beneficiary of tax cuts.

For Universal Store, the broker's target rises to $6.15 from $5.65 on a higher assumed earnings multiple. Buy.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.55
If UNI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources