Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AMP as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie notes the pre-release of first half results, which missed expectations. The broker understands the migration of high fee products is still outstanding and this poses downside risks into FY21.

The broker's analysis signals AMP may need to over-deliver on cost reductions to maintain operating earnings.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target reduced to $1.40 from $1.85.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie reviews impairment forecasts. With 10-15% of consumer and small-medium enterprise loans being deferred, along with a weak economic outlook, there is downside risk to bank earnings.

While recognising the risk of a relief rally as the sector is at a deep discount to its long-term history, in the medium-term Macquarie expects banks will deliver lower underlying returns.

ANZ Bank is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform, given the changes. The target is reduced to $18.25 from $18.50.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $17.51 Difference: $0.74
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.61, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AQZ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse suspects, with the purchase of 14 new planes on a prospective 3.1x EBITDA multiple, and the option for a further six, the outlook is stronger than a "fully-deployed" EBITDA multiple of around 4.8x would suggest.

The deal includes an option around flight simulation hardware/software and the 14 aircraft will commence arriving from September 2020.

The broker believes, regardless of what transpires with Virgin Australia, Alliance Aviation is likely to expand its routes.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is $3.75.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.34
If AQZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Neutral (3) -

The Citi analyst investigates the recent -52% decline in global sales of Vans, Accent Group's second largest brand, owned by the American apparel and footwear company VF Corporation.

The broker notes that inventory delays impacted the June quarter for VF Corporation and the American company is guiding to a less than -15% decline in the September quarter.

Citi's US Retail Team concludes there is nothing wrong with the brand.

However, the analyst remains cautious given the high levels of uncertainty surrounding the medium-term outlook.

The Neutral rating is maintained. The target price is $1.55.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.26
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie reviews impairment forecasts. With 10-15% of consumer and small-medium enterprise loans being deferred, along with a weak economic outlook, there is downside risk to bank earnings.

While recognising the risk of a relief rally as the sector is at a deep discount to its long-term history, in the medium-term Macquarie expects banks will deliver lower underlying returns.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target reduced to $6.25 from $6.50.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $6.77 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.60, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWP as Sell (5) -

The BWP Trust FY20 results were in line with Citi's expectations.

The company confirmed the FY20 dividend of $0.1829. The FY21 dividend is expected to be similar to FY20, with capital profits potentially supporting the dividend again, notes the broker.

The analyst highlights the resilience of the Trust's income to covid-19 impacts, which is looking defensive by comparison to other retail REITs.

Ex-covid, Citi believes operating risks have progressively risen. The Sell rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $2.69 from $2.71.

Target price is $2.69 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BWP as Buy (1) -

BWP Trust's FY20 earnings are in-line with Ord Minnett’s estimate and up 1% on FY19. A final dividend of $0.1829 per share was declared. The REIT has guided towards an FY21 distribution in-line with FY20, subject to the impact of covid-19.

Expecting the REIT’s portfolio to benefit from demand for industrial assets from e-commerce and logistics tenants, Ord Minnett maintains its Buy recommendation with the target price decreasing to $4.30 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.32
If BWP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

The company has provided a guidance range for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $202-206m for FY20.

Recovery in the used car market has been faster than Credit Suisse expected at the start of the pandemic but limited underlying growth is forecast into FY21.

Additional restrictions in Victoria also present a risk for the short term. Neutral maintained. Target is $16.60. The company will report results on August 19.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $18.72 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.29, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLQ as No Rating (-1) -

Clean Teq will take a -$180m impairment charge on the Sunrise project at the FY20 result. There is upward pressure on the capital expenditure estimate for Sunrise, which is currently -US$1.5bn.

Securing a development and funding partner remains key to progress on the project. Macquarie is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $0.17. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

UBS expects Cochlear’s FY20 net profit to decline by -39% year on year with the net profit margin declining to 14%.

The broker awaits company commentary for the FY21 outlook. It believes outlook comments will be made assuming elective surgery capacity ramping back to pre-covid-19 levels, but notes downside risk remains due to rising infections.

The broker forecasts Cochlear implant (CI) unit sales growth to be in upper single digits post the pandemic.

The company will be declaring its FY20 results on August 18.

UBS retains its Sell rating with a target price of $160.50.

Target price is $160.50 Current Price is $197.88 Difference: minus $37.38 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $186.61, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Lighten (4) -

Computershare has downgraded its FY20 expectations, hit by lower margin income and lower UK asset resolution profits. Ord Minnett notes margin income pressures will continue into FY21 and even FY22.

Below the line charges need to be kept in mind along with risks from the rising Australian dollar, highlights the broker. The company will be announcing its FY20 results on August 11.

Ord Minnett maintains its Lighten recommendation with the target price increasing to $10.75 from $10.50.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $13.88 Difference: minus $3.13 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.23, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi previews the CSL FY20 result due to be released on Wednesday, 19 August.

The broker's key concern is around covid-19 impacts and in particular disruption to plasma collection and how this will impact both product availability and costs in FY21.

By looking at overseas peers such as Takeda and Grifols, the analyst concludes that the demand for plasma products in the June quarter has been modestly impacted, but the key for FY21 remains the second wave of the pandemic in the US, and the potential continued disruption of plasma collection which will impact earnings in 2H21.

Citi suggest the company looks relatively good value, although the FY21 earnings risk remains to the downside. Both the rating and target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $334.00 Current Price is $283.16 Difference: $50.84
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $307.60, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

The US-based Haemonetics Corp is a global blood and plasma supplies provider. It reported organic plasma growth of -34.8% in the first quarter of FY21. 

Spanish blood plasma-based products producer Grifols expects its 2020 plasma collections will be down circa -10%. The Japanese pharmaceutical company Takeda also said its collections were down.

This gives Morgan Stanley an idea of the magnitude of CSL’s decline to date, which it estimates at -10% for 2020.

The broker maintains its Equal-weight rating with a target price of $265. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $265.00 Current Price is $283.16 Difference: minus $18.16 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $307.60, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CTD as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades Corporate Travel Management to an Add from Hold and observes the company is trading at a material discount to the broker’s valuation. One key catalyst may be the company reporting its FY20 results on August 19, according to the broker.

The broker believes company guidance may prove conservative as industry feedback suggests that corporate travel has been stronger than expected due to work from government and essential services customer contracts.

The company expects a swift return to profitability for the high-margin domestic work, even at modest levels of domestic activity. Domestic travel accounts for about 60% of total revenue according to Morgans.

The broker expects the company to win market share in a weakened competitive landscape, with a lower cost base moving forward and the competitive advantage of its technology.

Finally, Morgans believes the company has enough liquidity in an environment of subdued activity, for at least 23 months.

The rating is increased to Add from Hold. The target price is decreased to $12.85 from $13.10.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $4.55
If CTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.55, suggesting upside of 70.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DUB as Hold (3) -

Dubber Corp released its 4Q20 results which was a record quarter of customer additions with user adds and annual recurring revenue up year on year by 84% and 68%, respectively.

Morgans states the strongest growth came from North America and, importantly, from many different sources. At current levels of cash, the analyst notes the company is funded for around the next 18 months.

The broker notes cash flow is still slow and would prefer to accumulate after attaining greater confidence in the sales trajectory and cash conversion from key partner sales.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price increased to $1.17 from $0.968.

Target price is $1.17 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If DUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) is preferred over Evolution Mining due to the latter's disappointing FY21 production guidance.

Ord Minnett maintains its Sell recommendation with the target price increasing to $4.30 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting downside of -20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

The broker retains its Buy rating on Gold Road Resources with the target price increasing to $2.20 from $2.15.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.35
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLS as Hold (3) -

Healius provided a trading update, expecting to report FY20 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $102m-$104m and underlying profit (NPAT) of $54m-56m. Morgans states that covid-19 impacts were seen across all segments, with Imaging and Day Hospitals/IVF faring the worst, while Pathology did better as covid-19 testing helped buffer declines across base testing.

The broker's key takeaways include a strong recovery in Pathology since April, covid-19 testing increasing in recent outbreaks (but non-covid-19 testing down -5%-10%) and FY21 underlying earnings to 'significantly' increase with ongoing covid-19 uncertainty.

Morgans note that while the Sustainable Improvement Program is providing savings, other cost controls are temporary and at least $12m has been received in support via government programs.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $3.16 from $2.96

Target price is $3.16 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IFN as Neutral (3) -

The fourth quarter update highlights a tough outlook and Macquarie notes pricing is weak. The Iberdrola takeover offer is unconditional now and looks attractive to the broker.

While the company does not yet have control, it is likely to exercise significant influence even if it does not reach 50%.

Neutral rating and $0.92 target maintained.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0
If IFN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.91, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Buy (1) -

The investor day for Incitec Pivot revealed the resilience of demand across customers (excluding coal) and showed signs that fertiliser demand is recovering, Citi reports.

The broker notes the depth of the management team was visible as well as key strategies including further improving manufacturing efficiencies, adjusting the cost base and focusing on technology and new markets to drive growth in the explosives business.

Citi maintains its Buy rating. The target price is decreased to $2.40 from $2.43.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.47
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

The company's business update was better than expected. Credit Suisse notes enough positives to lift the stock, given it has materially underperformed the market in 2020. Operating rates at Waggaman and Phosphate Hill are ahead of estimates.

The broker is not bullish on near-term fertiliser pricing but the more bearish scenarios regarding demand/supply appear less likely to eventuate.

Credit Suisse discounts the US coal exposure because the profit impact is relatively low as a result of the absence of high-value product. Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $3.27 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.27 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $1.34
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the current share price is ascribing no value for the domestic fertiliser business and improved production and balance sheet should allow investors to more readily consider the leverage to fertiliser prices.

The broker notes a seasonal recovery continues, although follow-up rain is required. Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $2.65 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.72
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Incitec Pivot’s update on explosives volumes highlights a declining volume trajectory for the first 9 months of the year till June 30, 2020. North American coal volumes declined -21% year on year. 

Morgan Stanley notes plant reliability has improved to 88% from 81% a year ago. A $20m covid-19 response cost out opportunity has been extended, with $60m of benefits targeted over three years.

The broker has increased its FY20 operating income forecast by 1% and expects lower forecast explosives volumes to be offset by a higher DAP fertiliser forecast. Commodity prices, the key earnings driver, remain challenging.

Morgan Stanley reiterates its Equal-weight rating with the target price increasing to $2.25 from $2. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Incitec Pivot provided a trading update for its first nine months of FY20, which highlighted short term challenges, according to Morgans.

US explosives volumes were weaker than the broker expected and profitability was impacted by weak fertiliser prices.

Despite this, Morgans believes the company is now through the worst. Some positives include fertiliser prices now starting to recover from recent lows, improved seasonal conditions expected and the US Explosives market bottoming in May.

As the analyst has seen in past cycles, the company's share price tends to re-rate in line with higher fertiliser prices, which are forecast by industry bodies over coming years.

The broker raises profit (NPAT) estimates for FY20 and FY21 by 13% and 4%, respectively.

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. The target price increased to $2.35 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.42
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Incitec Pivot’s latest update notes fertiliser distribution volumes are up 16% (year on year) from September 2019 till June 30, 2020.

Forex effect translated to a drag of -$90m on operating income in FY20, in-line with UBS’s estimate. The company will be implementing a covid-19 related cost-out plan aimed at saving $60m over FY20-22.

The broker considers this to be a reasonably positive update highlighting the focus on maximising returns from manufacturing and technology investments across the explosives and fertilisers platforms.

UBS maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $2.25.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.54, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

Full-scale development has resumed following the capital raising. Beyondie's first production is expected in the first quarter of FY22 in keeping with the revised development timeline.

Macquarie believes delivering on Beyondie remains key to realising long-term value. Outperform rating and $0.45 target maintained.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.31
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 221% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Magellan Financial Group will be restructuring its global equities retail funds with assets worth $15bn to a listed environment. The group will be raising fresh retail funds into the closed-ended version paying a 7.5% partnership bonus.

Morgan Stanley considers this poses an upside risk to its retail flow forecasts. The move to a listed structure builds the financial services firm’s brand and increases its bargaining power versus the platforms.

The broker assumes a 25% participation and expects the main closed-end offer to raise about $1bn at a cost of circa $75m.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating with a target price of $45.70. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $45.70 Current Price is $62.67 Difference: minus $16.97 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $57.50, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MND as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Rio Tinto ((RIO)) has filed a claim against Monadelphous Group related to a fire incident in January 2019 at its Cape Lambert ore processing facility.

The miner claims Monadelphous is in breach of the maintenance contract and has claimed -$493m in loss and damages. The group denies this and also has a $150m public liability insurance policy, notes UBS.

The broker considers the claim to be very unusual and thinks Rio’s claim is either an ambit claim or Monadelphous is under-insured relative to the liability limits in its contracts. 

Rio’s -$493m is 8 times the maintenance division’s earnings and 60% of the group’s market capitalisation.

If the claim is successful, the group may be facing a -$350m obligation. The proceedings may also affect share price performance until the issue is resolved, believes the broker.

UBS downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy with the target price decreasing to $8.45 from $13.35.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $8.26 Difference: $0.19
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.71, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -

Macquarie reviews impairment forecasts. With 10-15% of consumer and small-medium enterprise (SME) loans being deferred, along with a weak economic outlook, there is downside risk to bank earnings.

While recognising the risk of a relief rally as the sector is at a deep discount to its long-term history, in the medium-term Macquarie expects banks will deliver lower underlying returns.

While continuing to appreciate the long-term investment thesis, as National Australia Bank has an overweight position for SME and higher exposure to riskier segments, Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Outperform. Target is reduced to $17.50 from $19.00.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.14 Difference: $0.36
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

Newcrest Mining remains Ord Minnett’s preferred stock among the larger names like Northern Star Resources ((NST)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)).

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation with the target price increasing to $35 from $34.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.01, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse expects the company to deliver at the mid point of FY20 guidance, which is for EBITDA of $390-410m. Trends appear positive but the broker acknowledges the outlook for the advertising market is likely to remain soft.

The target is increased to $2.10 from $2.00 to reflect a higher valuation for Domain Holdings ((DHG)), slightly offset by the sale of Stuff for a nominal sum. Outperform retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.72
If NEC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) is preferred over Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining ((EVN)).

Ord Minnett maintains its Lighten recommendation with the target price increasing to $12.20 from $11.60.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: minus $3.55 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.11, suggesting downside of -13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes trends have been improving over the fourth quarter, with better listings at REA Group ((REA)) and data on the US advertising market.

The broker upgrades estimates for FY20 to reflect this and will be looking for any improvement in digital subscriptions in the results on August 7.

Outperform rating maintained. Target raised to $22.85 from $22.60.

Target price is $22.85 Current Price is $18.26 Difference: $4.59
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.58, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OGC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating on OceanaGold with the target price increasing to $4.50 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $0.69
If OGC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse observes the change in the outlook for explosives pricing on the east coast of Australia is being driven by softer demand for thermal coal and an increasing surplus as a result of CSBP's exports.

The broker also notes a recovery in Latin America is turning out to be slower than expected at the time of the first half result.

Credit Suisse believes Orica will increasingly use technology to differentiate its position in higher-value mining markets, but if customers focus on costs technology uptake will slow down.

Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $16.59 from $17.06.

Target price is $16.59 Current Price is $17.31 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.00, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Panoramic Resources has released an updated re-start for Savannah, including new reserve estimates. Macquarie notes this extends the mine life to 13 years.

However, lower average grades reduce the nickel production outlook for the first five years by -20%.

As the share price has fallen -18% over the past month and the stock is trading below the target, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is $0.07.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGL as Neutral (3) -

The company has signalled an FY20 operating loss of -$18-22m. Macquarie assesses there are ongoing issues surrounding credit quality, funding and originations.

Loan originations produced a promising uplift in June, which the broker notes reflected renewed customer demand and an adjusted risk appetite.

However, cost management will be needed as revenue generation is affected by credit quality and a declining book size.

Neutral rating retained. Target is steady at $0.94.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.15
If PGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

The FY20 result beat Macquarie's estimates. The outlook is supported by net flows and the potential for performance fees.

The broker materially upgrades estimates to reflect operating leverage that is expected from net inflows, given the investment performance over the second half.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $6.06 from $4.62.

Target price is $6.06 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.45
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Add (1) -

Pinnacle Investment Management Group reported NPAT of $32.2m, which slightly beat Morgans forecasts on the back of lower corporate costs. 

Total funds under management (FUM) closed at $58.7bn, up 8.1% on the previous corresponding period. Morgans believes the result was solid during difficult market conditions and was assisted meaningfully by an uplift in performance fees.

The broker points out that market direction is likely to dictate the short-term. However, the broker is taking a longer-term view on the company's growth potential.

Morgans retains an Add rating and increases the target price to $5.95 from $4.75.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.34
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) -

Pinnacle Investment Management had a strong FY20 net profit despite market turbulence. Its affiliate net profit was up 15%, mostly due to investment in Coolabah and strong performance fees.

Ord Minnett continues to forecast above-consensus net profit. The broker is also confident about the growth of funds under management in FY21.

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $6.60 from $6.29.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.99
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to believe Ramsay Health Care is well-positioned for growth, despite the current environment where elective procedures are delayed.

The broker updates forecasts to incorporate accounting changes, lowering estimates for earnings per share by -14% and -11% in FY22 and FY21, respectively. The price target is reduced to $72.50 from $75.00. Outperform retained.

Target price is $72.50 Current Price is $63.96 Difference: $8.54
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.45, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RRL as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

The broker maintains its Sell rating on Regis Resources with the target price increasing to $4.50 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.82 Difference: minus $1.32 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SAR as Underperform (5) -

Saracen Mineral Holdings has provided FY21 guidance for Thunderbox and Carosue Dam along with the resource/reserve update. FY21 capital expenditure plans are well ahead of Macquarie's expectations, with the company embarking on another phase of significant reinvestment.

Macquarie understands the rationale of using cash flow from a gold price that is currently ahead of forecasts, but equally highlights the deferral of earnings weighs on valuation. Underperform maintained. Target is reduced to $5.10 from $5.40.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SAR as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

Ord Minnett downgrades Saracen Mineral Holdings to Lighten from Hold due to higher than expected capital expenditure requirements.

The broker notes some assets and orebodies to be sensitive to higher prices, seeing an increase in reserve prices, such as Saracen's at US$1,600–1,750/oz.  

The target price decreases to $4.90 from $5.30.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $6.08 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If SAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett is positive on the outlook for gold and has increased its near-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz. Its long-term gold price forecast remains US$1,600/oz.

The broker upgrades its rating on St. Barbara to Accumulate from Hold despite the company's disappointing update and FY21 production guidance.

The target price is increased to $3.80 from $3.60. 

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.36
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TAH as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

FY20 guidance is ahead of expectations but Macquarie finds it unclear whether this stems from revenue or from improved costs.

The broker lifts FY20-22 estimates by 4% because of the better guidance.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform because of the uncertainty and challenges within the wagering & media segments. Target is $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.39
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates’ wine exports to China were down -16% (value basis) year on year in the June quarter. This indicates recovery from March levels and is not as bad as expected, comment the analysts.

The company has guided to a -14% decline in FY20 Asia operating income. The broker is positive and believes there to be upside risks to the company performance. The company will be announcing its FY20 results on August 13.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with a target price of $13.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $10.99 Difference: $2.51
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.39, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VRL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi has downgraded Village Roadshow to Neutral from Buy due to the recent Queensland border restrictions combined with ride closures at Village's theme parks. The broker notes the theme park recovery may take longer than it originally anticipated.

The broker expects share price downside may be limited given the ongoing talks with suitor BGH. However, the analyst sees elevated uncertainty that a transaction will proceed given the major implications on the company's exhibition business from the recent AMC Comcast deal. This deal reduces the theatrical window to 17 days (three weekends) from 75-90 days for Universal movies.

Citi's new target price is taking into account BGH's base bid price of $2.20 under Structure A, combined with an additional 12 cents as Movie World and Sea World have reopened. The analyst assumes shareholders will not receive an additional 8 cents given the majority of Village cinemas are currently closed.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. The target price decreased to $2.32 from $2.61.

Target price is $2.32 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.14
If VRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources