Australian Broker Call
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August 28, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BLD - | BORAL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse | ||
GEM - | G8 EDUCATION | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
HUB - | HUB24 | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
ING - | INGHAMS GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
MTO - | MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
SFR - | SANDFIRE | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie | ||
WHC - | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
A2B A2B AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $1.61
Macquarie rates A2B as Neutral (3) -
FY19 results were slightly ahead of expectations. Macquarie notes the company continues to execute well as management invests in the business and delivers against a clear strategy.
Another year of investment looms in FY20 as A2B Australia continues to build its market position. Macquarie reduces the target to $1.61 from $2.02 and maintains a Neutral rating.
Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0
If A2B meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 25.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates A2B as Neutral (3) -
UBS found FY19 results solid although the softness in revenue in the second half points to headwinds in FY20. The company has managed a step-change in its technology around its mobile app, payments infrastructure and website.
The business has also diversified. No guidance was provided but the company anticipates challenging competitive dynamics will continue. Neutral rating and $1.70 target maintained.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.09
If A2B meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 25.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of 7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.73
Macquarie rates AGI as Underperform (5) -
FY19 results were in line with guidance provided in early May. Growth in FY20 is likely to be supported by Oak Grove, Macquarie observes. On an underlying basis the broker is forecasting $11m in adjusted pre-tax profit, down -20% year-on-year.
With lower earnings visibility the broker considers the stock expensive and retains an Underperform rating, raising the target to $0.55 from $0.50.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If AGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting downside of -28.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AGI as Sell (5) -
Revenue declined -20% in the second half. While variable margins are high, fixed costs grew and this resulted in a break-even result at the pre-tax profit line in the second half.
UBS reduces FY20 and FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -20% and -4% respectively. Sell rating maintained, with no visible turnaround in game performance so far. Target is reduced to $0.50 from $0.65.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If AGI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting downside of -28.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of 6.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.3, implying annual growth of 34.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.39
UBS rates AMA as Buy (1) -
FY19 results were in line. The highlight for UBS was the strong conversion of acquisitions. The pipeline remains strong and the broker believes there is upside potential to forecasts.
The company has reiterated 2021 targets for $1bn in revenue and $100m in operating earnings (EBITDA). UBS maintains a Buy rating and raises the target to $1.50 from $1.35.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.11
If AMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.86
Citi rates BAL as Neutral (3) -
Upon initial assessment, it appears today's FY19 release was well below Citi's forecasts and market consensus. The analysts believe the misses are respectively -12% and -17%.
Q4 trade de-stocking proved larger than anticipated and the analysts point out achieved sales growth missed the bottom of the company's own guidance.
Following on from management's commentary, Citi analysts point out lower birth rates in China and increased competition are two headwinds that won't disappear anytime soon.
Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $1.69
If BAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.25, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of -23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.4, implying annual growth of 28.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.36
UBS rates BLD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
FY20 guidance is in line with expectations and UBS forecasts Boral Australia's operating earnings (EBITDA) to decline -6% and property to increase to $40m. Zero operating earnings growth is forecast in North America.
The company is articulating a clear a strategy in managing costs and positioning for the lower demand in Australia, while the fly ash business is reporting positive price and volume growth, the broker observes.
UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral and reduces the target to $5.20 from $5.40. Boral has also finally reached an agreement with Knauf over the USG Boral JV. The JV will expand by acquiring Knauf's plasterboard assets in Asia for US$533m.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: $0.84
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 50.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.00
Citi rates CCX as Sell (5) -
Citi analysts had previously downgraded to Sell because of City Chic's reliance on key US department stores, which are under financial strain. That Sell rating remains firmly in place, with a slightly higher price target of $1.70 (was $1.65).
Post the release of FY19 financials, the analysts observe that while sales growth had strong momentum in H2, the operating leverage was more modest. Operational forecasts have been lifted, but EPS estimates have been culled to incorporate higher tax and depreciation for the next three years.
Citi does not quantify the company's performance in FY19, but acknowledges here remains a robust growth outlook. It's just that the analysts also believe there is insufficient margin of safety in the share price to account for potential risks.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.81
Citi rates CTX as Buy (1) -
For Citi's initial comments see yesterday's Broker Call Report. Today, Citi reiterates its Buy rating on the view that yesterday's share price reaction is out of line with a number of positives in the interim report that have obviously not been considered by disappointed investors on the day.
Citi analysts state the conviction behind their Buy call is supported by the view that 2019 will prove to be the trough in earnings, except when a local recession should follow. Cost out exceeded forecasts and should be taken as a positive, say the analysts.
The analysts forecast a 3-year net profit CAGR of 25%, while mid-cycle earnings forecast of $650m compares with Citi 2019 forecast of $315m. Price target jumps to $29.84 from $26.89.
Target price is $29.84 Current Price is $23.81 Difference: $6.03
If CTX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 126.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.6, implying annual growth of -40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 225.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.9, implying annual growth of 47.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CTX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
The take-out from Caltex result was not the numbers themselves -- they were within the guidance range and unsurprising as far as Credit Suisse was concerned -- but the omission of earlier guidance to a profit uplift for the Convenience business. But given the broker never included such an uplift in its forecasts, announced cost-cuts mean there is "no significant void" left by a lack of Convenience profit growth.
Rather, Credit Suisse looks to lower assumptions for refinery production and margins in lowering its FY expectations. This leads to a target cut to $26.85 from $32.22 and a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.
Target price is $26.85 Current Price is $23.81 Difference: $3.04
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 74.50 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.6, implying annual growth of -40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 168.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.9, implying annual growth of 47.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley believes Caltex is becoming interesting for value investors, although suspects the stock will not outperform, given the softer guidance.
The magnitude of cost reductions is higher than the broker expected and provides some level of comfort should retail fuel margins continue to deteriorate.
The broker considers the property disposal strategy sensible and envisages some modest recovery in retail margins in the second half. Equal-weight maintained. Target is $24. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.81 Difference: $0.19
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 124.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.6, implying annual growth of -40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 98.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.9, implying annual growth of 47.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker considers the interim result an inflection point and is pleased with the increased focus on return on capital.
Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. The company has announced a $100m cost savings program by 2020 and the divestment of 50 alternative-use retail sites. Target is raised to $27 from $25.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.81 Difference: $3.19
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 130.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.6, implying annual growth of -40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 194.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.9, implying annual growth of 47.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CTX as Neutral (3) -
First half results were in line with recent guidance. UBS notes a material change in messaging around costs, capital expenditure and the convenience retail strategy.
On the positive side, the broker notes a more disciplined approach, with the company announcing a -$100m annualised reduction in costs by the end of 2020.
However, the 2024 earnings (EBIT) uplift targets from convenience have been retracted. While the strategy may still be working, UBS is less confident in the near-term outlook for convenience.
Neutral rating maintained. Target is raised to $25.30 from $23.30.
Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $23.81 Difference: $1.49
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.6, implying annual growth of -40.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 199.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.9, implying annual growth of 47.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.39
Macquarie rates CVN as Outperform (1) -
FY19's net loss of -$8.0m was driven by higher corporate costs. The focus is on the upcoming Dorado-3 well.
Macquarie believes, following the placement, the company should be well funded through to completion of FEED.
The broker retains an Outperform rating and $0.50 target.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.11
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FXL FLEXIGROUP LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $1.87
Credit Suisse rates FXL as Outperform (1) -
Flexigroup's result landed at the bottom end of the guidance range, in line with the broker's expectation. Simply meeting guidance is one of the positives the broker saw in the numbers. There are many moving parts in the business nonetheless, and management refrained from providing FY20 guidance citing a need to achieve medium term, rather than near term, goals.
The broker has trimmed earnings forecasts but still expects modest profit growth in FY20. On current valuation the stock offers a reasonable margin for error, the broker suggests. Outperform and $1.80 target retained.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If FXL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 37.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates FXL as Outperform (1) -
FY19 net profit was in line with the lower end of guidance. The company expects FY20 volumes to be up 15% but provided no other financial targets.
Macquarie notes the business is being simplified and the level of impairments improved in the second half. Target is raised to $2.19 from $2.04. Outperform rating maintained.
Target price is $2.19 Current Price is $1.87 Difference: $0.32
If FXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 37.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.41
Morgan Stanley rates GEM as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes occupancy rates became harder to increase in the second quarter and the company must now cycle an improvement in the prior corresponding second half.
The broker envisages little upside to management's view of a 1.5% occupancy uplift. When combined with the cost pressures of labour and rents there is less scope for operating leverage as a result.
Estimates are reduced by -12% for 2019 and -20% for 2020. Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is lowered to $2.50 from $4.00. In-Line industry view maintained.
Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.09
If GEM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of -2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HUB HUB24 LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $11.82
Citi rates HUB as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
On Citi's calculations, the company has made a robust start into the fresh financial year and risks are seen as to the upside, with net flows expected to grow by 18% in FY20. Estimates go up on lower cost growth as well as lower share based payments.
Given the improved outlook for net flows, Citi has upgraded to Neutral from Sell, despite still seeing risk to platform pricing and potentially higher cost growth. Price target improves to $12.45 from $12.05.
Citi believes another RBA rate cut will have a negative impact, while margins remain under pressure, also because there is increased focus on fees from advisors.
Target price is $12.45 Current Price is $11.82 Difference: $0.63
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 93.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 51.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates HUB as Neutral (3) -
Lower than expected revenues led to Hub24's profit missing the broker's forecast by -12%, despite lower than expected expenses. The company's revenue margin took a dive in the second half on business mix and competitive market pricing.
Management is looking to increase funds under management by 70-100% in the next two years which, Credit Suisse warns, suggests further large steps down in margins.
The broker believes Hub will ultimately attract significant flows but volatility will reign in the shorter term. On a 50x PE the broker sees a fair valuation. Neutral retained, target falls to $12.30 from $12.60.
Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.82 Difference: $0.48
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 93.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 51.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates HUB as Underperform (5) -
Revenue margins declined -6.5 basis points in FY19 and Macquarie believes the declining trend will continue, factoring in another decline of -7.3 basis points over the next two years.
The broker found no visibility or underlying transparency on margins in the results. Strong flows are still expected. Underperform rating maintained. Target rises to $8.72 from $8.65. Estimates for earnings per share in FY20 are reduced by -3.4%.
Target price is $8.72 Current Price is $11.82 Difference: minus $3.1 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 93.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 51.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates HUB as Hold (3) -
FY19 results were in line with expectations. Morgans remains attracted to the embedded growth in the business and the long-term profile but in the short term considers the stock susceptible to concerns regarding lower cash rates.
The company has upgraded its target for funds under administration in FY21 to $22-26bn. Morgans retains a Hold rating, based on the potential for short-term volatility. Target is reduced to $13.24 from $13.84.
Target price is $13.24 Current Price is $11.82 Difference: $1.42
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 93.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 51.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett understands short-term earnings momentum is negative but envisages a significant opportunity is ahead of the business.
The medium-term outlook for funds under administration has strengthened by 15% as the company takes advantage of an unprecedented shift in advisers from aligned practices.
To remain at the forefront of platform innovation, the broker notes the company continues to invest in sales and IT resources. This short term investment is outweighed by the long-term gain and underpins the broker's Buy rating. Target is reduced to $15.48 from $15.95.
Target price is $15.48 Current Price is $11.82 Difference: $3.66
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 93.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 51.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.18
Morgans rates ICQ as Add (1) -
Malaysia and Thailand are now profitable and losses are abating in Indonesia, so Morgans suspects the company is on its way to achieving the target of generating cash by the second half of 2020.
The first half showed the first glimmer of the earnings potential and rigorous cost controls have enabled the business to weather a rough first half and deliver a better cash outcome than forecast, the broker points out.
Add rating maintained along with a $0.32 target.
Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.14
If ICQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ING INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $3.25
Citi rates ING as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
As reported yesterday, the FY19 report missed consensus forecasts, and it was accompanied by guidance for a decline in profits for FY20. Following on from the share price shellacking that ensued post the release, Citi has upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
Forecasts have been slashed by -18%-19%. Price target reduces to $3.40 from $3.85. The two challenges for management are rising costs and slowing price increases, which creates a double whammy, the analysts explain.
The company is organising a Strategy Day on 22 October 2019. Longer term, the analysts highlight this company is operating inside a concentrated industry structure, where scale benefits are important.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.15
If ING meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ING as Neutral (3) -
Ingham's FY19 result was only a modest miss; it was the FY20 outlook that really sent the foxes into the hen house. Consensus forecasts had assumed around 5% earnings growth in FY20 so guidance to "below FY19" was a bit of a shock.
Management admits it misjudged plans for its further processing (FP) network rationalisation, with lower volumes leading to materially higher costs. Input prices continue to hit record levels (drought).
FP is the main problem, Credit Suisse suggests, but can be fixed. Meanwhile, demand nevertheless remains strong and an experienced management may yet be able to drive material margin upside in the long run. For now, Neutral retained, target falls to $3.50 from $4.25.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.25
If ING meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.80 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ING as Neutral (3) -
FY19 underlying net profit was below Macquarie's estimates. The company provided a soft outlook for FY20 and, given the uncertainty over feed costs, Macquarie believes the risks remain to forward estimates.
The broker currently expects Australian operating earnings (EBITDA) of $168.8m in FY20. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.45 from $4.10.
Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.2
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.80 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ING as Equal-weight (3) -
FY19 results missed estimates at the underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) level. Morgan Stanley finds the broader outlook challenged, despite New Zealand appearing to resume growth.
Pressures on feed prices and network inefficiencies are likely to persist. Morgan Stanley lowers estimates for FY20 operating earnings by -22%.
The broker anticipates the investor briefing in October should provide more confidence in the company's ability to leverage the demand backdrop.
Rating is Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $4.30. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.05
If ING meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.90 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.70 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates ING as Hold (3) -
FY19 results slightly missed forecasts. Outlook commentary was worse than Morgans expected and material downgrades are made to forecasts.
Morgans believes a turnaround will take time and, in the meantime, another poor grain harvest could weigh on margin and sentiment.
A solid dividend yield may provide some degree of support to the share price, the broker adds, but further downside risk to earnings cannot be dismissed. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $4.10.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.25
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ING as Sell (5) -
FY19 net profit was -5% below estimates. Guidance for FY20 suggests an earnings decline and UBS downgrades estimates for earnings per share in FY20-22 by -10-18%.
The broker's concerns centre on the change in rhetoric around the sensitivity to feed prices, as the previous comment that more than 60% of volume will experience a pass-through of feed pricing has been removed.
UBS appreciates the stock is not overly expensive and downside risk is now reduced but maintains a Sell rating. Target is reduced to $3.10 from $3.40.
Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.40
Citi rates LVT as Buy (1) -
No surprises as the company had only recently updated with its June quarter cash flow numbers. Citi analysts suggest FY20 will provide management with the opportunity to show the true leverage in the business model.
Forecasts have been tinkered with, but top line estimates have remained unchanged. Adjusting for lower multiples for peer companies, Citi has nevertheless reduced the price target by -8% to $0.97 from $1.05. Buy/High Risk rating retained.
Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.57
If LVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.75
Morgan Stanley rates MNF as Overweight (1) -
FY19 results were in line with estimates. Morgan Stanley liked the continued shift away from transaction earnings to annuity-style. FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $33-36m was reaffirmed.
As investors were cautious about the company's ability to reiterate guidance the broker considers this statement a major positive. Target is $5.60. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.85
If MNF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 26.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 30.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MTO MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $2.22
Morgans rates MTO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
FY19 results were ahead of guidance and above forecasts. This came despite a tough year for motorcycle dealerships. Morgans upgrades forecasts by more than 20%.
The broker believes FY20 will post fewer headwinds for the company and the industry. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $2.27 from $1.32.
Target price is $2.27 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.05
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NAN NANOSONICS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $6.40
Citi rates NAN as Sell (5) -
Nanosonics delivered a better-than-expected performance in FY19, observe the analysts at Citi. They have maintained the Sell rating on valuation with the FY19 release triggering yet another sharp rally in the share price.
Citi analysts also specify their valuation of $4.40 per share is unchanged and consists of $2.90/share for the underlying business and $1.50/share for new products. Management's guidance for higher opex triggers downgrades to forecasts.
FY20 is likely to be weighted to H2 as sales and margins will kick in by then, suggest the analysts. They have high expectations for the next three years coming from Japan.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 128.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 58.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NAN as Hold (3) -
FY19 results were ahead of forecasts. Management has guided to a higher cost base in FY20 and Morgans reduces estimates as a result.
The main upside risk is higher rates of adoption in Europe while the downside risk is pricing pressure as hospital budgets tighten. Hold maintained. Target is raised to $6.14 from $4.99.
Target price is $6.14 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 128.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 58.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NAN as Buy (1) -
FY19 results were in line with UBS estimates. The broker notes profit forecasts in FY20 are heavily skewed to the second half, as expected.
Continued growth in the North American installed base is expected while expanded investment in Europe should increase adoption of the company's product. UBS maintains a Buy rating and $6.30 target.
Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 128.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 58.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.61
Morgans rates NBL as Add (1) -
FY19 results were in line with guidance. The company has reiterated FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $75m. The company is also expecting further earnings growth after FY20, via increased online sales and footprint growth.
Noni B will seek to leverage its existing customer database through a number of websites to expand its product category offering. Morgans maintains an Add rating and increases the target to $3.60 from $3.48.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.99
If NBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.23
Macquarie rates NHC as Neutral (3) -
Production and sales volumes were stronger than Macquarie expected in the fourth quarter, driven by outperformance at Bengalla. Uncertainty continues regarding the required approvals for New Acland stage 3, which means broker reduces the production outlook for the current operation.
Estimates for earnings per share in FY19 and FY20 are raised by 3% and 7%, respectively, as the sales outlook for Bengalla is increased, slightly offset by a declining base case profile at New Acland. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.60.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.07
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 42.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 137.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of -32.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.88
Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -
Underlying, the gold producer's FY19 performance missed market consensus by some -5%, comment the analysts. Given the pull back in share price, Citi sticks with its Neutral rating for the stock.
Citi's own forecast was missed by no less than -18%. Plus guidance is also below forecast on volume and above forecast on costs. The next value driver for the company is likely to be the Pogo project, say the analysts. Price target moves to $11.50 from $11.55.
The "miss" of FY19 result is ascribed to an exploration write-down in combination with higher D&A. In a separate announcement, the company has made an all-cash offer for Echo Resources ((EAR)).
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 68.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 129.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 63.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -
Northern Star delivered a profit of $179m to the broker's $161m forecast and a dividend of 7.5c to the broker's 6c. The miner intends to maintain dividends even if cash falls below target, which it is currently, the broker notes, post the Echo acquisition.
Credit Suisse retains Underperform, which is unsurprising given an unchanged target of $6.30 despite a valuation at current spot gold of $10.58, which gives you an idea of the broker's long term view on the gold price.
Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: minus $5.58 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 49.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 129.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 57.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NST as Underperform (5) -
Earnings were little softer in FY19 than Macquarie expected. The company has made a takeover offer for Echo Resources, which owns the 1.8mt Bronzewing mill and an exploration tenement adjacent to the company's Jundee operation.
Macquarie considers the bid, worth $193m, is fair and does not expect an immediate restart of Bronzewing. The offer will become conditional on Northern Star requiring 50.1% interest. Underperform rating and $10 target maintained.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 39.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 129.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 50.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -
FY19 results were in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley finds it too early to have a strong view on the proposed takeover of Echo Resources. Value is envisaged largely in the longer-dated potential rather than near-term upside, as was the case with the Pogo acquisition.
Hence, in the absence of a detailed future strategy, the broker wonders if there was a better time to implement the takeover. The deal provides no immediate production but could offer future milling for Jundee.
Underweight rating. Industry view is Attractive. Target is $8.60.
Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: minus $3.28 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 129.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NST as Sell (5) -
FY19 results were marginally below estimates because of higher corporate costs and impairments. FY20-21 net profit forecasts are reduced by -7%.
The company has announced a takeover bid for Echo Resources ((EAR)) at $0.33 per share. UBS assesses the value of the deal might evolve over time.
Echo Resources' dormant mill might also solve the constraints at Ramone and provide potential synergies for Northern Star. Sell rating and $10 target maintained.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.88 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.88, suggesting downside of -16.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 129.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.06
Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -
First half results were in line, given headline numbers were pre-released. Macquarie notes pro forma revenue growth of 4.8% was broadly in line with the sector.
The focus is on the outlook for advertising markets in general, with the broker noting a number of media operators have flagged an improvement is likely in September and October, although this will be against softer comparables.
Macquarie notes visibility beyond this time frame is limited. While trading conditions are challenging the broker envisages long-term structural growth for the company. Outperform maintained. Target is lowered to $4.35 from $4.45.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $1.29
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.10 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 24.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates OML as Add (1) -
Guidance for FY19 has been reaffirmed following the recent downgrade. The company believes trading conditions have improved and forward bookings for the fourth quarter are currently ahead of the previous year.
Morgans maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $3.91 from $3.61.
Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.85
If OML meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 33.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 24.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.47
Ord Minnett rates OZL as Hold (3) -
Upon initial assessment, Ord Minnett believes the interim report is in-line, with a slightly better dividend of 8c. There are no changes to the guidance for the full 2019.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $9.47 Difference: $1.23
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.02, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.8, implying annual growth of -26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 81.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.1, implying annual growth of 40.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $0.35
Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -
No partnership is in the offing at this point in time and Citi analysts draw a parallel with Galaxy Resources' ((GXY)) earlier failure to find a partner; it's all happening on the back of weak lithium market dynamics which, on Citi's assessment, is creating valuation disparity between potential partners inside the industry.
On the other hand, the company now has a binding agreement with POSCO to build a 40ktpa hydroxide downstream chemical processing facility in Korea (21% interest in the JV with option to increase to 30%).
Among numerous changes to the modeling, Citi analysts highlight Pilbara Minerals is projected to start generating meaningful earnings only from FY21. Neutral/High Risk rating retained. Target price drops to 40c from 60c.
Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.05
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of 222.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
Pilbara Minerals has given up trying to sell its Pilgangoora minority given there are no decent offers, which Credit Suisse finds unsurprising given the macro backdrop and lithium demand and prices under pressure.
The broker believes its a sensible move not to sell out at a significant discount but it means the balance sheet issue remain unresolved.
To that end the broker does not rule out a raising. Outperform and 90c target retained.
Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.55
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of 222.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PLS as No Rating (-1) -
The company now envisages a phased approach to the stage 2 expansion at Pilgangoora. First half production guidance has also been revised and is weaker than Macquarie expected.
The company now expects to ship 20-35,000dmt of concentrate in the first quarter. The broker remains under research restriction and cannot provide a rating or target.
Current Price is $0.35. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 81.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of 222.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RDH REDHILL EDUCATION LIMITED
Education & Tuition
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Overnight Price: $2.12
Morgans rates RDH as Add (1) -
FY19 results were ahead of forecasts. This was primarily driven by higher-than-expected margins in the Greenwich and GoStudy businesses.
The company will expand its Greenwich Sydney operations with an additional 16 classrooms from September in response to the limited capacity and high utilisation at existing premises.
No formal guidance was provided but growth is expected in students and revenue in FY20. Morgans maintains an Add rating and raises the target to $2.95 from $2.84.
Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.83
If RDH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.14
UBS rates RFF as Buy (1) -
FY19 results were in line with expectations. UBS observes the business appears to be on a solid footing. Guidance for FY20 is slightly below expectations, explained by costs associated with the independent investigation.
The broker suspects guidance is conservative and envisages tailwinds from cattle acquisitions as well as a lower floating-rate and $17.6m of capital expenditure on almonds in FY19.
Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.42 from $2.65.
Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.28
If RFF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.20 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $3.73
Credit Suisse rates RWC as Outperform (1) -
Reliance Worldwide's FY19 result was in line with guidance updated in May and FY20 guidance meets the broker's expectation. Guidance assumes no repeat of the big freeze of FY19 in the US and US tariffs of 25% (30% would add $4m in costs, the broker notes).
Credit Suisse puts the positive market reaction down to management allaying concerns over cash conversion and customer ranging.
FY20 is expected to be a below average year and management warns of revenue volatility ahead, which the broker finds curious for a defensive business. A path back to strong growth will rely on planned product launches which the broker sees as promising but indefinite. Outperform retained, target falls to $4.25 from $4.40.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.52
If RWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -
FY19 results were in line with expectations. Macquarie liked the confident tone in the result and believes the outlook is solid despite the uncertainties that exist, notably with Brexit.
While margins in the Americas were weaker than expected, these are likely to have been affected by post-winter de-stocking and increased investment in R&D. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $4.80 from $5.00.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $1.07
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Equal-weight (3) -
FY19 results were in line with forecasts. The outlook is better than Morgan Stanley feared, although headwinds exist in the area of tariffs, Brexit and weak Australian housing.
Guidance for net profit of $150-165m in FY20 is provided on the basis of no further tariffs or import duties in the US.
Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating and raises the target to $4.00 from $3.75. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.27
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -
FY19 results were in line with expectations. FY20 guidance is weaker than expected as the outlook is clouded by US/China trade conflicts, weakness in Australia's residential construction market and Brexit.
FY20 estimates for underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) are reduced by -4%. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $3.43 from $3.95.
Target price is $3.43 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RWC as Accumulate (2) -
FY19 net profit was below forecasts. Ord Minnett remains confident that the key distribution relationships are strong and does not believe guidance for FY20 is overly optimistic.
The broker has reduced estimates for Europe the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) to capture Brexit-related risk. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $4.80.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.77
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RWC as Neutral (3) -
FY19 operating earnings (EBITDA) were in line with expectations. UBS is more confident in the revenue outlook as the company is growing in line with expectations in the US.
Still, the broker suspects the market is wary of the risk of a de-stocking event, given one of the company's wholesalers has introduced a competing private label.
UBS is comforted by the fact that end users such as plumbers have been naturally hesitant to switch away from familiar products. Outside of the US revenue is weak. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.66 from $3.75.
Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SDA SPEEDCAST INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment
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Overnight Price: $0.78
Credit Suisse rates SDA as Neutral (3) -
The broker is confounded as to how Speedcast's result could still manage to disappoint given the serious profit warning in July. While it was the profit result that fell short -- earnings were in line -- it was also low quality being full of one-offs, and cash flow fell well short of forecasts.
Gearing levels are now too high for most investors, Credit Suisse points out, albeit below a revised covenant level.
The broker cuts its target to $1.21 from $2.20 and suggests that while the stock looks very cheap on a 4.7x PE it is gearing that is the issue, hence Neutral.
Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.43
If SDA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 62.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SDA as Neutral (3) -
First half results were in line with downgraded guidance. Macquarie observes tough operating conditions continue and there are many concerns regarding increased net debt, impairments and weak cash flow.
The broker finds it hard to envisage any near-term catalysts to drive a re-rating and potential corporate activity could take time to develop. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.35 from $2.25.
Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.57
If SDA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 62.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SDA as Neutral (3) -
UBS notes new negatives were introduced in the first half results, despite guidance being provided only in early July. First half cash conversion has been weak and the division performance is tracking below full-year expectations.
Even after the -30% drop in the share price, UBS suggests the stock remains a relatively high-risk investment. There is upside if the company can execute on earnings growth and de-leveraging. However, auditors have questioned whether the business is a going concern.
Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $2.30.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.47
If SDA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 62.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.44 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.18
Credit Suisse rates SFR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
The Credit Suisse mining sector analysts love providing a flood of hard numbers and little in the way of commentary. Suffice to say Sandfire's profit was $106m to the broker's $116m forecast and the dividend of 65.2c missed a 72.6c assumption.
An earnings miss is apparently due to lower inventory credit than expected.
Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and retains the $6.75 target..
Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $0.57
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.30 cents and EPS of 75.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SFR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
FY19 results were in line with estimates. The company expects to update the market on the timing and scope of the T3 project in the second quarter along with the completion of the acquisition of MOD Resources.
Macquarie envisages value at current levels and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. The company has not changed FY20 guidance and, therefore, the broker has not updated estimates. Target is steady at $6.70.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $0.52
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 85.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -
FY19 results were in line with estimates. Morgan Stanley finds the stock fundamentally cheap with strong leverage to a deficit in the copper market.
Overweight rating and $7.65 target. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $1.47
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SFR as Hold (3) -
FY19 results were in line with expectations. Morgans finds plenty of questions remain on how the company will sustain or grow production after the exhaustion of reserves at DeGrussa.
Catalysts include the MOD Resources takeover and final permits at Black Butte. The stock now appears genuinely cheap but Morgans retains a Hold rating until there is greater certainty around the growth strategy. Target is reduced to $6.65 from $6.98.
Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $0.47
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SFR as Accumulate (2) -
FY19 results were broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. FY20 production guidance is unchanged for copper, at 70-70,000t. Gold is slightly lower, at 38-40,000 ounces.
The broker continues to envisage long-term re-rate potential in the stock based on significant valuation support and the MOD Resources acquisition. Accumulate maintained. Target is $7.70.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $1.52
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 110.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -
FY19 net profit was in line with UBS estimates. The company's growth plans are designed to extend the operating life of its mines beyond the three years at DeGrussa and maintain around 60-70,000tpa of copper production.
If the Black Butte copper project in Montana and the acquisition of MOD Resources is approved, UBS suspects the key concerns of the market will be addressed. Neutral rating and $6.25 target maintained.
Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $0.07
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of 23.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.2, implying annual growth of 26.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $2.28
Citi rates SKI as Neutral (3) -
On Citi's assessment, H1 FY19 proved largely in-line but the dividend outlook was softened. The analysts had been sceptical since last year about the dividend prospects for Spark Infrastructure.
Most assets largely performed in line, though distributions from SA Power Network exceeded the analysts' forecast. Numerous amendments have been made post the release, bottom line is that forecasts have been reduced, and this weighs upon dividend estimates for the years ahead. Citi's forecasts now assume an annual dividend payout of 15c into perpetuity.
Target price loses -3% to $2.41 and Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.13
If SKI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates SKI as Neutral (3) -
Spark's result was in line with Credit Suisse. In the past management has warned of lower revenue outcomes due to the impact of regulatory resets and reviews, but this is the first time management has conceded that dividend rebasing may be needed to offset.
The broker had been of the view free cash flow would fall short of dividends and capex but had expected a DRP to counter.
Assuming a minimal DRP, the broker expects a -17% reduction in dividends from FY21. Neutral and $2.30 target retained.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.02
If SKI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SKI as Neutral (3) -
First half earnings were lower than expected. The regulatory re-set remains a headwind, and bond rates and expenditure allowed are the significant aspects relevant to the outcome of the re-set.
Offsetting this is growth in the regulated asset base, which is above inflation. Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $2.41 from $2.46.
Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.13
If SKI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SKI as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley believes the company's strong asset quality is affected by the re-basing of distributions and tax uncertainty.
First half results were in line with estimates but the broker points to the looming revenue headwinds from lower bond yields. Part of the revenue headwind will be offset by lower debt costs.
The company has described the 2019 rate of return guidelines as out of date and unsustainable and will continue to try and influence future return decisions, in view of Australia's large network investment task.
Underweight rating maintained. Target is $2.24. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $2.24 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SKI as Reduce (5) -
Nothing in the first half result changes Morgans' view that distributions are likely to fall. Lower regulated revenue and an increase in tax paid are likely to put downward pressure on the cash flow that supports distribution payments.
While the first half result indicated improvement in unregulated earnings the broker still expects a material reduction in the distribution per security to an average of around $0.11 across FY21-24.
This could be even lower if government bond yields stay at current levels. Morgans retains a Reduce rating and raises the target to $2.06 from $1.96.
Target price is $2.06 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SKI as Hold (3) -
First half earnings were ahead of forecasts. The company has again flagged the growth opportunities for Transgrid. There are also opportunities for the distribution assets in enhanced grid stability.
The main issue, Ord Minnett notes, is that regulators are offering insufficient returns based on the rate of return guidelines, which largely apply to distribution network assets.
The company believes these low returns do not compensate for large-scale development risk. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $2.35 from $2.40.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.07
If SKI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.90
Morgan Stanley rates SLC as Equal-weight (3) -
FY19 operating earnings (EBITDA) beat Morgan Stanley's estimates and FY20 guidance for $14-16m was reiterated. The broker believes the long-term opportunity in connectivity remains while momentum is building in the fibre segment.
Debt levels are higher than optimal in the broker's view and this keeps an Equal-weight rating intact. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $1.10.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.2
If SLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SLC as Add (1) -
FY19 results and guidance's were pre-released and reiterated. Morgans notes the higher-margin connectivity business is growing fast enough to more than offset the weakness in services.
The broker also notes the bulk of capital expenditure has been made and the company is now generating cash.
Morgans believes the company needs to complete a material cash-generating deal to lower debt to more conservative levels. Add rating and $1.60 target maintained.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.7
If SLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 9.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SRV SERVCORP LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies
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Overnight Price: $4.51
UBS rates SRV as Neutral (3) -
Net profit was ahead of estimates in FY19. UBS found the second half result was strong and aided by cost reductions and gains on FX.
A stabilisation of trends is expected to be maintained into FY20 and lead to upgrades to forecasts. Neutral rating and $2.95 target maintained.
Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: minus $1.56 (current price is over target).
If SRV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
VAH VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $0.16
UBS rates VAH as Sell (5) -
Upon initial read of the FY19 report card, UBS believes the loss was much larger than expected, plus management has guided to ongoing challenges. Plus the company is anticipating further FY20 fuel and foreign exchange headwinds of approximately -$100m compared to FY19.
Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.01
If VAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.18, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.95
Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Overweight (1) -
First half results were ahead of estimates but Morgan Stanley found the outlook commentary uncertain. Refining is showing signs of improvement but remains volatile, the broker observes.
The broker assumes broadly flat retail margins in the second half and in 2020 with a modest volume uplift. Overweight. Target reduced to $2.30 from $2.35. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.35
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of -70.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 43.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $39.36
Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -
Upon initial review, Citi analysts believed FY19 performance was slightly better than their own forecast. On second consideration, and after stripping out numerous one-offs, they believe the headline numbers materially flatter what is actually going on inside the business.
Citi spells it out: Wesfarmers is unable to deliver organic growth. Bunnings is, simply put, the sole exception. Earnings estimates have been reduced and now only assume organic growth of 0.3% in FY20, after the 0.5% of FY19.
Even though Bunnings is expected to benefit from the improving housing market cycle in Australia, Citi cannot get excited about a business that is generating no organic growth, and heavily relies on that one performing business. Sell. Target price $34.50 (was $33.80).
Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $4.86 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 150.40 cents and EPS of 170.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 148.70 cents and EPS of 177.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WES as Underperform (5) -
No alarms and no surprises from Wesfarmers' result. The broker believes investors will be split on whether the stock is a good proposition or not. Near term earnings growth is expected to be modest and heavily reliant on Bunnings, which itself is heavily reliant on the domestic cycle.
Earnings for Chemicals, Energy & Fertilisers are expected to decline from a seasonally strong period and K-Mart earnings are always uncertain.
Bunnings' expansion in digital and trade is relatively low risk, the broker concedes, and there are longer term options in leveraging Catch Group within K-Mart and delving into lithium via Kidman Resources ((KDR)).
Underperform retained, target falls to $32.16 from $32.55.
Target price is $32.16 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $7.2 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 180.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -
FY19 results were in line with expectations. Bunnings & Officeworks missed forecasts while discount department stores and chemicals & fertilisers were better.
Macquarie envisages downside risk in key businesses, with further investments across 82% of the portfolio likely to weigh on FY20 earnings.
Neutral rating. Target is raised to $37.50 from $36.83. FY20-22 estimates are reduced by -2-3.5% to reflect a less bullish outlook.
Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $1.86 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 154.30 cents and EPS of 171.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 162.90 cents and EPS of 181.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -
Retail operations were broadly in line with expectations in FY19. Bunnings appears resilient while there is improved momentum at Kmart.
Target, on the other hand, has deteriorated. Management is intent on re-positioning the customer proposition and will continue to rationalise the store network.
Morgan Stanley considers the valuation rich and maintains an Underweight rating. Target is raised to $32 from $29. Cautious industry view.
Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $7.36 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 151.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WES as Hold (3) -
FY19 results were ahead of expectations. Morgans continues to believe the stock is a core holding and, while consumers remain cautious, assesses the strength of the balance sheet will allow Wesfarmers to remain agile and invest in a fast-changing environment.
The stock is considered fully valued and a Hold rating is maintained. Target rises to $37.41 from $34.61.
Target price is $37.41 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 161.00 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 193.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WES as Lighten (4) -
FY19 earnings were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The core Bunnings division showed resilience in sales and margins. Looking forward to FY20, only Officeworks and the industrial and safety division are forecast to grow.
Ord Minnett finds a lack of valuation support from the weak earnings trajectory and maintains a Lighten rating. Target is raised to $35 from $31.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $4.36 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 164.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 174.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -
FY19 results were in line with estimates. Cash flow was a highlight for UBS. The broker notes Bunnings was softer, albeit performing well, and Target is still struggling. UBS suspects this business will shut or evolve materially in the next 1-3 years.
UBS resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $37 target. The broker notes the strong balance sheet and market leading brands in Bunnings, Kmart & Officeworks, which should benefit from an improving backdrop in 2020.
Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $2.36 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.08, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 170.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.1, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 150.00 cents and EPS of 168.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.8, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.34
Ord Minnett rates WHC as Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate (4) -
Ord Minnett notes the second half was broadly positive, with earnings and cash flow beating expectations. However guidance for FY20 is lacklustre.
Critically, the company has kept its word and returned surplus cash to shareholders, delivering a $0.30 second half dividend. The broker transfers coverage to another analyst and incorporates a new model, resulting in substantial changes.
Rating is downgraded to Lighten from Accumulate and the target reduced to $3.00 from $4.80. Relative to its peers the stock appears expensive on key valuation metrics and the broker notes coal prices are also under pressure.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of -48.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of -0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.40
Ord Minnett rates WSP as Buy (1) -
FY20 forecasts were reiterated and FY19 results beat estimates across all key metrics. Revenue was better from existing customers and new customers were in line, with evidence of slightly larger deal sizes and faster transfer of clients.
Gross margins improved around 130 basis points. Ord Minnett reiterates a Buy rating and $2 target.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.6
If WSP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 8.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
A2B | A2B AUSTRALIA | $1.61 | Macquarie | 1.61 | 2.02 | -20.30% |
UBS | 1.70 | 2.10 | -19.05% | |||
AGI | AINSWORTH GAME TECHN | $0.73 | Macquarie | 0.55 | 0.50 | 10.00% |
UBS | 0.50 | 0.65 | -23.08% | |||
AMA | AMA GROUP | $1.39 | UBS | 1.50 | 1.35 | 11.11% |
BLD | BORAL | $4.36 | UBS | 5.20 | 5.40 | -3.70% |
CCX | CITY CHIC | $2.00 | Citi | 1.70 | 1.65 | 3.03% |
CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | $23.81 | Citi | 29.84 | N/A | - |
Credit Suisse | 26.85 | 28.94 | -7.22% | |||
Ord Minnett | 27.00 | 25.00 | 8.00% | |||
UBS | 25.30 | 23.30 | 8.58% | |||
FXL | FLEXIGROUP | $1.87 | Macquarie | 2.19 | 2.04 | 7.35% |
GEM | G8 EDUCATION | $2.41 | Morgan Stanley | 2.50 | 4.00 | -37.50% |
HUB | HUB24 | $11.82 | Citi | 12.45 | 12.05 | 3.32% |
Credit Suisse | 12.30 | 12.60 | -2.38% | |||
Macquarie | 8.72 | 8.65 | 0.81% | |||
Morgans | 13.24 | 13.84 | -4.34% | |||
Ord Minnett | 15.48 | 15.95 | -2.95% | |||
ING | INGHAMS GROUP | $3.25 | Citi | 3.40 | 3.85 | -11.69% |
Credit Suisse | 3.50 | 4.25 | -17.65% | |||
Macquarie | 3.45 | 4.10 | -15.85% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 3.30 | 4.30 | -23.26% | |||
Morgans | 3.50 | 4.10 | -14.63% | |||
UBS | 3.10 | 3.40 | -8.82% | |||
LVT | LIVETILES | $0.40 | Citi | 0.97 | 1.05 | -7.62% |
MTO | MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS | $2.22 | Morgans | 2.27 | 1.32 | 71.97% |
NAN | NANOSONICS | $6.40 | Morgans | 6.14 | 4.99 | 23.05% |
NBL | NONI B | $2.61 | Morgans | 3.60 | 3.48 | 3.45% |
NHC | NEW HOPE CORP | $2.23 | Macquarie | 2.30 | 2.60 | -11.54% |
NST | NORTHERN STAR | $11.88 | Citi | 11.50 | N/A | - |
OML | OOH!MEDIA | $3.06 | Macquarie | 4.35 | 4.45 | -2.25% |
Morgans | 3.91 | 3.61 | 8.31% | |||
PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | $0.35 | Citi | 0.40 | 0.60 | -33.33% |
RDH | REDHILL EDUCATION | $2.12 | Morgans | 2.95 | 2.84 | 3.87% |
RFF | RURAL FUNDS GROUP | $2.14 | UBS | 2.42 | 2.65 | -8.68% |
RWC | RELIANCE WORLDWIDE | $3.73 | Credit Suisse | 4.25 | 4.40 | -3.41% |
Macquarie | 4.80 | 5.00 | -4.00% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 4.00 | 3.75 | 6.67% | |||
Morgans | 3.43 | 3.95 | -13.16% | |||
Ord Minnett | 4.50 | 4.80 | -6.25% | |||
UBS | 3.66 | 3.75 | -2.40% | |||
SDA | SPEEDCAST INTERN | $0.78 | Credit Suisse | 1.21 | 2.20 | -45.00% |
Macquarie | 1.35 | 2.25 | -40.00% | |||
UBS | 1.25 | 2.30 | -45.65% | |||
SFR | SANDFIRE | $6.18 | Morgans | 6.65 | 6.96 | -4.45% |
SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE | $2.28 | Citi | 2.41 | 2.28 | 5.70% |
Macquarie | 2.41 | 2.46 | -2.03% | |||
Morgans | 2.06 | 1.96 | 5.10% | |||
Ord Minnett | 2.35 | 2.40 | -2.08% | |||
VEA | VIVA ENERGY GROUP | $1.95 | Morgan Stanley | 2.30 | 2.35 | -2.13% |
WES | WESFARMERS | $39.36 | Citi | 34.50 | 33.80 | 2.07% |
Credit Suisse | 32.16 | 33.41 | -3.74% | |||
Macquarie | 37.50 | 36.83 | 1.82% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 32.00 | 29.00 | 10.34% | |||
Morgans | 37.41 | 34.61 | 8.09% | |||
Ord Minnett | 35.00 | 31.00 | 12.90% | |||
UBS | 37.00 | N/A | - | |||
WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | $3.34 | Ord Minnett | 3.00 | 4.80 | -37.50% |
Summaries
A2B | A2B AUSTRALIA | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.61 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.61 | ||
AGI | AINSWORTH GAME TECHN | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.73 |
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $0.73 | ||
AMA | AMA GROUP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.39 |
BAL | BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.86 |
BLD | BORAL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.36 |
CCX | CITY CHIC | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $2.00 |
CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $23.81 |
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $23.81 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $23.81 | ||
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $23.81 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $23.81 | ||
CVN | CARNARVON PETROLEUM | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.39 |
FXL | FLEXIGROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.87 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.87 | ||
GEM | G8 EDUCATION | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.41 |
HUB | HUB24 | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $11.82 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.82 | ||
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.82 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $11.82 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.82 | ||
ICQ | ICAR ASIA | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.18 |
ING | INGHAMS GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $3.25 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.25 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.25 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.25 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.25 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.25 | ||
LVT | LIVETILES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $0.40 |
MNF | MNF GROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.75 |
MTO | MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.22 |
NAN | NANOSONICS | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $6.40 |
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.40 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $6.40 | ||
NBL | NONI B | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.61 |
NHC | NEW HOPE CORP | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.23 |
NST | NORTHERN STAR | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $11.88 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.88 | ||
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.88 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.88 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $11.88 | ||
OML | OOH!MEDIA | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.06 |
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.06 | ||
OZL | OZ MINERALS | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.47 |
PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.35 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.35 | ||
No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.35 | ||
RDH | REDHILL EDUCATION | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.12 |
RFF | RURAL FUNDS GROUP | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.14 |
RWC | RELIANCE WORLDWIDE | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.73 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.73 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.73 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.73 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.73 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.73 | ||
SDA | SPEEDCAST INTERN | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.78 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.78 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.78 | ||
SFR | SANDFIRE | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.18 |
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.18 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $6.18 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.18 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.18 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.18 | ||
SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.28 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.28 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.28 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.28 | ||
Reduce - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.28 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.28 | ||
SLC | SUPERLOOP | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.90 |
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.90 | ||
SRV | SERVCORP | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.51 |
VAH | VIRGIN AUSTRALIA | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $0.16 |
VEA | VIVA ENERGY GROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.95 |
WES | WESFARMERS | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $39.36 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $39.36 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $39.36 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $39.36 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $39.36 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $39.36 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $39.36 | ||
WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.34 |
WSP | WHISPIR | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.40 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 26 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 37 |
4. Reduce | 2 |
5. Sell | 16 |
Wednesday 28 August 2019
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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