Australian Broker Call
November 17, 2016
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 04:17 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AHG - | AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| CSL - | CSL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| GNC - | GRAINCORP | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank |
| MMS - | MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE | Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| MQA - | MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank |
| PRG - | PROGRAM MAINTENANCE | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| SGF - | SG FLEET | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| SYD - | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank |
Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -
The company reiterated guidance at its investor briefing. Macquarie observes the commentary regarding stronger electricity prices and the relatively fixed cost nature of the company's production bodes well for the earnings growth in the business.
Macquarie observes management's attention is on using the cash windfall to pay shareholders, but also to develop growth potential as markets are disrupted by new technology. Outperform rating and $22.89 target retained.
Target price is $22.89 Current Price is $19.57 Difference: $3.32
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.27, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 117.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 105.00 cents and EPS of 140.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.7, implying annual growth of 14.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett found one of the more surprising developments from the company's recent investor briefing was the announcement of a feasibility study into a potential LNG import terminal.
The broker considers this questionable, given the recent developments on Curtis Island. The economic argument warrants investigation, the broker concedes, but the political ramifications of building an LNG import facility suggest it is highly unlikely to happen.
The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and $23 target.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.57 Difference: $3.43
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.27, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.7, implying annual growth of 14.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AHG as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -
Regulatory settings linked to the automotive market are set to change, Morgan Stanley contends, with ASIC reviewing commissions and financing practices at dealerships.
The broker believes the risks facing automotive dealerships are more likely to affect the near-term earnings for this company. This is because of a less favourable geographic exposure and a logistics business which has been hard to turn around.
Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. Sector view is In-Line. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $4.50.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 10.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.3, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AHG as Add (1) -
New car sales remain soft in Queensland and Western Australia. This is the dominant regional exposure for the company. Hence, Morgans lowers earnings forecasts.
The share price has retraced around 25% from its recent highs, weighed down by the ASIC review and softer trading.
Morgans lowers its target to $4.87 from $5.20. Add rating retained.
Target price is $4.87 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $1.09
If AHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 10.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.3, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates APE as Equal-weight (3) -
Regulatory settings linked to the automotive market are set to change, Morgan Stanley contends, with ASIC reviewing commissions and financing practices at dealerships.
The broker does not discount the risk to fringe benefit tax/novated leasing, even if this seems stable for the time being. Moreover, Australia's housing-linked and debt-intensive growth over the last four years has provided a substantial tailwind which appears to be subsiding.
Equal-weight rating maintained as AP Eagers has a more favourable geographic exposure compared with Automotive Holdings ((AHE)) and significant opportunity to increase used car sales. Target is reduced to $9.40 from $11.19. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $9.40 Difference: $0
If APE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates APE as Hold (3) -
New car sales remain soft in Queensland and Western Australia. This is the dominant regional exposure for the company. Hence, Morgans lowers earnings forecasts.
The share price has retraced around 25% from its recent highs, weighed down by the ASIC review and softer trading.
Morgans retained a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $11.06 from $12.70.
Target price is $11.06 Current Price is $9.40 Difference: $1.66
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 52.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.1, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 57.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AWE as Neutral (3) -
At the AGM management highlighted the consolidation of the business strategy and growth from the two development projects.
Macquarie remains cautious, given a lack of catalysts. The broker still believes the company will achieve production to the upside of its 2.7-3.0mmboe guidance. Neutral. Target unchanged at 60c.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.03
If AWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie received two clear messages from the analyst briefing. Firstly, there is more opportunity for cost reductions and this is been pursued.
Secondly, the company continues to focus on reducing low-value steel exports in favour of high-value domestic sales.
The broker considers the stock attractive compared with international peers. Outperform retained. Target lifts to $11.00 from $10.10.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $2.06
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.33, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of 52.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 93.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of -15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CSL as Neutral (3) -
Results from the CSL112 study were presented to the American Heart Association, with the safety end point being met but the secondary efficacy end point unmet.
Credit Suisse believes a more detailed update on the size, cost and potential duration of a phase 3 trial may not be possible until the additional renal study has been completed.The broker assumes a phase 3 trial commences in late 2017 or early 2018.
A Neutral rating is retained with a $110 price target.
Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $99.14 Difference: $10.86
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $109.02, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 176.46 cents and EPS of 371.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 372.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 218.21 cents and EPS of 457.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.1, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Underweight (5) -
Further to the release of the CSL112 phase IIb data Morgan Stanley believes it likely that phase III will proceed based on safety.
However, the lack of any efficacy signal, and a competitive landscape, increases the chance that phase III fails, while the target market opportunity recedes.
The broker retains Underweight rating. Target falls to $97 from $101. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $97.00 Current Price is $99.14 Difference: minus $2.14 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $109.02, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 191.50 cents and EPS of 366.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 372.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 238.06 cents and EPS of 449.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.1, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -
The phase IIb result for CSL112, designed to reduce the high incidence of early recurrent cardiovascular events, confirmed its safety end point but the secondary efficacy end point was not met.
Ord Minnett is not greatly surprised, given the study was primarily designed to assess safefty, but expects some disappointment will be voiced up that the results were not more positive.
The broker does not expect the company to commit to a phase III trial until results from a separate trial in patients with renal impairment are available in mid 2017.
Hold retained. Target is $100.
Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $99.14 Difference: $0.86
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $109.02, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 185.88 cents and EPS of 373.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 372.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 242.17 cents and EPS of 485.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.1, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CSL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
CSL's (potential) new heart drug is basically a "pipe cleaner for the arteries", UBS notes, intended to reduce the risk of a second cardiac event following a heart attack. Phase 2 trials suggested the drug was safe but the time-to-next heart attack factor was unclear.
A successful drug offers material upside and failure does not, UBS notes. Meanwhile CSL's core businesses offer a strong outlook and on the recent heart drug-related price pullback, the broker upgrades to Buy. Target rises to $113.20 from $112.50.
Target price is $113.20 Current Price is $99.14 Difference: $14.06
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $109.02, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 177.80 cents and EPS of 377.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 372.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 181.84 cents and EPS of 447.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.1, implying annual growth of 21.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 204.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ECX as Overweight (1) -
Regulatory settings linked to the automotive market are set to change, Morgan Stanley contends, with ASIC reviewing commissions and financing practices at dealerships.
The broker does not discount the risk to fringe benefit tax/novated leasing, even if this seems stable for the time being. Morgan Stanley envisages EclipX faces the least risk of stocks under its cover from regulatory and macro economic issues, while there are opportunities for acquisitions.
The broker retains an Overweight rating and raises the target to $4.55 from $3.42. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.63
If ECX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.28, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 38.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates FBU as Neutral (3) -
At the Auckland building expo the broker learned of labour shortages and too-long wait times for materials, prompting builders to need new solutions to build faster and cheaper. The broker thus believes competition from imports is a minimal threat for Fletcher.
The latest earthquake also means more building will be required. The broker sees the stock as well valued and retains Neutral and an NZ$10.15 target.
Current Price is $10.27. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 39.17 cents and EPS of 62.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 39.17 cents and EPS of 66.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.8, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates GNC as Outperform (1) -
The FY16 result was in line with Credit Suisse forecasts. There was a stronger contribution to earnings on the malt business and weaker than forecast contribution from grain marketing.
The broker downgrades its marketing probability forecast for FY17. Crop production upside is considered likely in 2017.Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $9.19 from $9.00.
Target price is $9.19 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $0.61
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.71 cents and EPS of 45.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.28 cents and EPS of 50.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates GNC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Deutsche Bank considers the FY16 result a positive as it was ahead of expectations. The result highlights the diversification benefits from growth in the malt division and a return to earnings growth in storage and logistics.
Offsetting this was weaker-than-expected margins in oils. The broker downgrades to Hold from Buy as the stock is now trading at a 4% discount to valuation. Target is steady at $8.90.
Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $0.32
If GNC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GNC as Neutral (3) -
Underlying net profit was slightly ahead of Macquarie's forecast. Weather over the next month is considered critical to crop outcomes, together with the extent of grain export activity.
On a positive note, the broker notes the malt business keeps delivering, with strong craft and whiskey demand and ongoing efficiency benefits. After a challenging FY16, oils are expected to show positive growth in FY17.
A potential catalyst, in the broker's opinion, includes the removal of a stock overhang from ADM's 19.9% share. Neutral rating retained. Target lifts to $9.00 from $8.90.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $0.42
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 22.40 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.70 cents and EPS of 52.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GNC as Overweight (1) -
FY16 results were aligned with guidance, although weak by historical standards, Morgan Stanley observes. The broker retains an Overweight rating which reflects expectations that the company is at the start of an earnings inflection point.
The broker notes $300m in growth capex coming on line, upgrade potential for harvests and cost initiatives for FY17. This has only been partly baked into the market's forecasts, although the broker acknowledges solid delivery on expectations is required.
The target is raised to $9.75 from $9.70. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $1.17
If GNC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -
FY16 results were in line with expectations and Morgans expects, with a large harvest underway, and improved earnings performance in FY17.
The degree of upside is unknown, given the delays to harvest and how much farmers may hold back their grain because of low prices, as well as how much increased competition could hurt the company's volumes and margins.
The broker believes consensus forecasts are too high. A Hold rating is retained.Target rises to $8.70 from $8.40..
Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $0.12
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GNC as Neutral (3) -
Graincorp's FY16 result was weak, the broker notes, due to three below average east coast crops, increased competition and rail contracts signed when volumes were stronger. It was nevertheless better than expected thanks to malt demand for the US craft beer boom.
The next crop looks set to be bumper. Graincorp is investing a lot of capex into upgrading its infrastructure but benefits won't be seen until FY18-19, the broker suggests. Target rises to $8.95 from $8.75. Neutral retained.
Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $0.37
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 47.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 19.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GTN as Outperform (1) -
The first quarter trading update was positive, in Macquarie's opinion. The company has reiterated its prospectus forecasts.
Besides the Radiate option, the broker also believes there is long-term upside for Canada as it continues to track the growth trajectory of the Australian business.
Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $2.96 from $2.71.
Target price is $2.96 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If GTN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates IPH as Add (1) -
After the upcoming liquidity event, with escrowed stock likely to be released shortly, Morgans believes the company should gain some clear air and investors should be able to concentrate on the underlying quality of the stock.
The company has guided to EBITDA of $72m-74m for FY17. This is in line with expectations. Add rating and $7.51 target retained.
Target price is $7.51 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $2.25
If IPH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 29.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 11.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (5) -
Regulatory settings linked to the automotive market are set to change, Morgan Stanley contends, with ASIC reviewing commissions and financing practices at dealerships.
The broker does not discount the risk to fringe benefit tax/novated leasing, even if this seems stable for the time being. Moreover, Australia's housing-linked and debt-intensive growth over the last four years has provided a substantial tailwind which appears to be subsiding.
The broker downgrades to Underweight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $9.60 from $14.79. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $10.60 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.19, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 107.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.6, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates MQA as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Deutsche Bank is downgrading its exposure to the Australian infrastructure sector as a whole. The broker concludes that, despite recent falls across the sector, it is only trading at fair value.
Despite growth options and solid operations as well as favourable longer-term trends, the broker believes the macro bond environment has swamped these issues.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target drops to $4.75 from $6.10.
Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.48
If MQA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.62, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 62.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 87.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NAB as Buy (1) -
The second half was challenging for the major banks, Deutsche Bank observes. National Australia Bank's cash and underlying earnings growth was the strongest, supported by a 2% reduction in costs.
Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $31.10 from $30.40.
Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $28.40 Difference: $2.7
If NAB meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.79, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.7, implying annual growth of -3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.0, implying annual growth of 0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NVT as Underperform (5) -
The company has reported that third semester enrolments are down 8%. Domestic enrolments declined 15%.
Despite the soft numbers Credit Suisse observes the company has maintained its guidance for flat EBITDA at a group level, with growth in other divisions offsetting the first half decline in the core University Programs business.
The broker retains an Underperform rating. Target is lowered to $4.95 from $5.20.
Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If NVT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.10 cents and EPS of 23.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.30 cents and EPS of 27.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 10.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
While a lower Australian dollar is good news for the company's shareholders, Credit Suisse notes the problematic news is that competitor OJI has announced a new capacity installation in Queensland. The broker expects this capacity to become operational by 2018.
Orora generates around 25% of its group EBITDA from Australasian fibre operations, in the broker's estimates. A Neutral rating is retained and the target is lowered to $3.05 from $3.30.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.27
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 14.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 12.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates OZL as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts observe OZ Minerals is enjoying a positive news cycle. The latest is an extension of mine life at Prominent Hill by five years to twelve. They do anticipate a pull back in share price post what has been a strong rally, but maintain this is the best copper leverage on the ASX.
The analysts admit their previous assumptions were too conservative. They also anticipate an upgrade to market expectations. Citi now has a more positive view on the outlook for copper prices. Buy. Target lifts to $8.80 from $7.20.
Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: $0.85
If OZL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.29, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Citi forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 39.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.6, implying annual growth of -14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 47.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PDN as Neutral (3) -
Paladin has done a good job of lowering costs, the broker suggests, and while posting a loss in the Sep Q, is "hanging in there". The problem is with few fixed price sales contracted beyond 2016, the current uranium spot price implies ongoing cash burn.
This brings the convertible bond repayment into focus, and here Paladin is in the hands of the Chinese buyers of 24% of Langer Heinrich, who are drawing out the process. The broker believes the company could cover the timing with a debt facility, but other options may be needed.
Neutral and 17c target retained.
Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.07
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.18, suggesting upside of 87.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates PGH as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank considers the maintenance of full year guidance a positive for the company, as underlying market conditions remain subdued.
Pact should benefit from contributions from acquisitions, the efficiency program and the non-recurrence of integration costs but the broker notes, on the negative side, net contract losses will continue to affect first half earnings.
Buy rating and $7.10 target retained.
Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.01 Difference: $1.09
If PGH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 39.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.40 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PGH as Outperform (1) -
The AGM has highlighted trading conditions for the first four months of FY17 in line with Macquarie's expectations. Underlying market conditions remain subdued.
The broker forecasts growth of 14% in earnings per share in FY17, largely driven by Jalco and the APM integration. Target is $6.65. Outperform retained.
Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $6.01 Difference: $0.64
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 23.70 cents and EPS of 36.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 25.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 40.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of 12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PRG as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett expects the company to report EBITDA of $36.9m for the first half, up 85% on a year ago given the full contribution from the Skilled Group acquisition.The broker also expects the company to retain its recently downgraded FY17 guidance for operating earnings of around $100m.
The earnings outlook may be far from certain, but the broker believes management has factored in much of the near-term risk in its guidance, with revenue opportunities in the development pipeline presenting potential upside.
Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.70.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.35
If PRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 19.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -
The AGM update signalled growth is slower than Morgan Stanley previously thought. Regulatory settings linked to the automotive market are set to change, the broker contends, with ASIC reviewing commissions and financing practices at dealerships.
The broker does not discount the risk to fringe benefit tax/novated leasing, even if this seems stable for the time being. Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $4.60. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.17
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of 38.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SIQ as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley does not discount the risk to fringe benefit tax/novated leasing from regulatory changes, even if this seems stable for the time being.
As Smartgroup has its major exposure to the health care segment, the broker believes this significantly de-risks future regulatory changes. The stock is the broker's preferred salary packaging exposure.
Overweight rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.55 from $7.30. Sector view is In-Line.
Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $1
If SIQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.69, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 26.40 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 84.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 35.90 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SYD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Deutsche Bank is downgrading its exposure to the Australian infrastructure sector as a whole. The broker concludes that, despite recent falls across the sector, it is only trading at fair value.
Despite growth options and solid operations as well as favourable longer-term trends, the broker believes the macro bond environment has swamped these issues.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target drops to $6.05 from $7.60.
Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.97 Difference: $0.08
If SYD meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 19.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 13.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Underweight (5) -
Given the highly specialised nature spherical graphite, and the long lead times required to qualify product, Morgan Stanley suspects the initial estimate of US$45m in capex to progress the company's battery strategy may require a revision.
The broker suspects operating costs could be higher. Morgan Stanley awaits the update from the company's briefing on its battery strategy.
Underweight and $3.75 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.52
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 107.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TCL as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank is downgrading its exposure to the Australian infrastructure sector as a whole. The broker concludes that, despite recent falls across the sector, it is only trading at fair value.
Despite growth options and solid operations as well as favourable longer-term trends, the broker believes the macro bond environment has swamped these issues.
Hold rating retained. Target falls to $9.65 from $10.60.
Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $9.77 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 436.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TGA as Hold (3) -
First half profit was down 11.8%. Morgans observes margin pressure within consumer leasing was largely offset by solid growth in equipment finance.
The results benefited from the run-off in the consumer finance book, but the trade/debtor business was disappointing to the broker.
Morgans retains a Hold recommendation. The stock represents value but the broker would prefer to gain increased confidence in the short-term earnings trajectory and a clearer picture of the potential for further regulatory impacts. Target is raised to $1.75 from $1.69.
Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.08
If TGA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -
Amidst widespread speculation the conglomerate might be looking to divest its Resource business, Citi analysts comment any sale would be negligible to both valuation and EPS. A reported price target of $2.5bn would be better than expected.
All in all, Citi analysts don't seem too enthusiastic about it all, pointing out they retain a Sell rating alongside a target of $38.10 and any sale of the coal operations is not going to change their mind.
Target price is $38.10 Current Price is $41.00 Difference: minus $2.9 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.15, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 200.00 cents and EPS of 242.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.1, implying annual growth of 574.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 249.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 256.8, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 213.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Underweight (5) -
Management changes at Big W lead Morgan Stanley to question the sustainability of the business model and whether it could potentially be a liability, rather than an asset, given onerous lease obligations.
The broker suspects that, while bulls will argue there is value in the Big W revenue base, this could be all but eroded. Morgan Stanley envisages the lease liability as particularly onerous and limiting any potential divestment in future.
The broker retains an Underweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is $20.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $23.30 Difference: minus $3.3 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.26, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.7, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WOW as Lighten (4) -
Big W CEO, Sally MacDonald, has resigned. The reason given was that the turnaround In the business would take longer than she expected when she joined the company back in January.
Ord Minnett believes this raises further questions about the size of the turnaround that is required and its long-dated time horizon. Any expectation of a turnaround in less than 3-5 years is a surprise to the broker and suggests a lack of understanding of the predicament the business faces.
The broker considers there is downside risks to earnings with further changes in the strategy at the business. A Lighten rating and $22 target are retained.
Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $23.30 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.26, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 135.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.7, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $19.57 |
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $19.57 | ||
| AHG - | AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.78 |
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.78 | ||
| APE - | AP EAGERS | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $9.40 |
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.40 | ||
| AWE - | AWE | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.57 |
| BSL - | BLUESCOPE STEEL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.94 |
| CSL - | CSL | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $99.14 |
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $99.14 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $99.14 | ||
| Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $99.14 | ||
| ECX - | ECLIPX GROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.92 |
| FBU - | FLETCHER BUILDING | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $10.27 |
| GNC - | GRAINCORP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.58 |
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $8.58 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.58 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.58 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $8.58 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $8.58 | ||
| GTN - | GTN LTD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.72 |
| IPH - | IPH | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.26 |
| MMS - | MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE | Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $10.60 |
| MQA - | MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.27 |
| NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $28.40 |
| NVT - | NAVITAS | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.04 |
| ORA - | ORORA | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.78 |
| OZL - | OZ MINERALS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.95 |
| PDN - | PALADIN | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.10 |
| PGH - | PACT GROUP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.01 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.01 | ||
| PRG - | PROGRAM MAINTENANCE | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.45 |
| SGF - | SG FLEET | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.43 |
| SIQ - | SMARTGROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.55 |
| SYD - | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.97 |
| SYR - | SYRAH RESOURCES | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.23 |
| TCL - | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.77 |
| TGA - | THORN GROUP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.67 |
| WES - | WESFARMERS | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $41.00 |
| WOW - | WOOLWORTHS | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $23.30 |
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $23.30 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 14 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 17 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 7 |
Thursday 17 November 2016
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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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