Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes both Origin Energy and AGL Energy have misread the electricity market, assuming a $75MWh price signal for investment. The broker assumes $60MWh long term and doubts the two utilities have sufficiently hedged their volumes in FY22-23.

AGL’s onerous contract for wind underscores how early investments in new generation technology can affect long term returns when the technology is rapidly reducing costs and prices are falling, the broker notes.

Following the profit warning, Citi has cut its target to $10.52 from $12.16, retaining Neutral.

Target price is $10.52 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

AGL Energy announced -$3.6bn in impairments and provisions before tax, comprising -$1.9bn in contract provisions and -$1.12bn in environmental remediation provisions. This leads to a -$1.6 reduction in Credit Suisse's target price.

Credit Suisse retains its Underperform rating with the target price decreasing to $9.50 from $11.10.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: minus $1.92 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

AGL Energy announced -$2.7bn in post tax charges, which reflects a drop in its long-term electricity price assumption and increased environmental restoration costs, explains Macquarie.

The charges include -$1.9b in provisions for contracts to wind farm power purchase agreements (PPA's), -$1.1bn in increases to environmental restoration provisions, generation asset impairments of -$532m and a positive tax effect of $878m.

While the broker considers the outlook remains poor, it's expected profit (UNPAT) and hence dividend benefits in FY22/23 forecast years, from lower depreciation of written down assets.

Target price reduced to $10.86 from $11.63. Underperform.

Target price is $10.86 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Hold (3) -

AGL Energy announced the intention to incur a -$2.7bn post tax impairment charge at the first half results, due to the impact of lower long-term electricity prices. Morgans thinks the large pipeline of wind and solar projects will continue to weigh on the market.

The cheapest coal plants (i.e. AGl Energy’s) will likely continue to operate in the long term, notes the broker, as the lower value plants are displaced allowing for some realisation of value.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $10.55 from $11.18.

Target price is $10.55 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

AGL Energy announced it would take -$2.7bn in impairments at its interim financial result related to contract provisions, increased rehabilitation provisioning and other generation asset write-downs.

The broker is concerned about the company's cautious outlook commentary, with management indicating the long-term outlook for wholesale electricity indicates a material reduction in prices.

Accumulate rating with the price target declining to $14 from $16.87.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: $2.58
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Sell (5) -

UBS retains its Sell rating on AGL Energy with the target falling to $10 from $11.60.

AGL Energy will recognise charges of -$2.7bn relating to contract provisions on its wind farm offtake agreements and asset impairments of -$1.34bn in its first half results.

These charges reflect the impact of material wholesale electricity price reductions on AGL's inflexible, fixed cost generation base, assesses UBS. The broker expects the company's earnings to decline versus last year and notes downside risk in the medium term.

The dividend yield is expected to drop materially year on year.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: minus $1.42 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.87, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANZ as Add (1) -

Morgans expects the upcoming round of major bank trading updates, and one result for the Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), to likely increase upside risk to earnings and dividend forecasts for FY21.

While the broker has the lowest FY21 credit impairment charge forecast, by comparison to other brokers, the analysts believe even their own forecasts are looking increasingly conservative.

Morgans adopts this view after reviewing recent APRA data showing loan repayment deferrals have declined significantly since September 2020. Total deferrals at the end of December 2020 were 1.9% of total loans.

The ANZ Bank's first quarter trading update is on the 18th of February and Morgans lifts the bank to second most preffered of the big four banks due to the excessive asset quality damage already priced in.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $28.50 from $26.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $24.78 Difference: $3.72
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.06, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates API as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

As Australia re-opens in 2021, the broker believes there will be strong underlying demand for front-of-house sales, notably make-up,
fragrances and supplements/vitamins as people start to go out and travel.

For Australian Pharmaceutical Industries' April 22 result, the broker will be looking for any further store closures caused by covid and plans for rolling out new Priceline stores.

The Outperform rating and $1.47 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.15
If API meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APT as Neutral (3) -

On its earnings release, PayPal noted its new BNPL product has proven to be the fastest launch for the company ever. Rival Klarna highlighted 15m customers, up 4m from November.

It's a double-edged sword for locals Afterpay and Zip Co, the broker suggests. On the one hand it underscores a large addressable market offering growth, but on the other hand competition, particularly from a big player like PayPal.

The broker sees Zip as relatiely more exposed given a lack of scale relative to Afterpay. Neutral and $115 target retained on Afterpay.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $146.31 Difference: minus $31.31 (current price is over target).
If APT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $110.09, suggesting downside of -27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APT as Neutral (3) -

After further data analysis, Macquarie points to slowing momentum in merchant numbers in the US, though numbers are stable in Australia/NZ and rising in the UK.

Additionally, the broker has begun to track attrition rates of merchants on the company’s online platform, as merchants may start to cull the bevy of new BNPL entrants on their respective websites.

Neutral rating and target price are unchanged.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $146.31 Difference: minus $6.31 (current price is over target).
If APT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $110.09, suggesting downside of -27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AQZ as Add (1) -

Alliance Aviation Services has entered into a three-year wet lease agreement with Qantas Airways ((QAN)) to provide an initial three E190 aircraft from mid-2021, with Qantas retaining the option to call on a further 11 aircraft.

Morgans expects further agreements will be secured, underpinning the company's material fleet expansion plans, which should continue to support a re-rating.

The Add rating and target of $5 are unchanged.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.71
If AQZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Buy (1) -

In a quick note, Citi suggests Austal's launch of electric ferries should bode well for the longer term pipeline, given shipowners have previously indicated their intention of focusing on new ships to replace less efficient ones.

The near term impact will be limited, the broker notes, but development of more efficient ferries should lead to contract wins.

Buy and $4.30 target retained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $1.83
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse expects China's ban import on Australia coal to continue for the forseeable future and expects coal volume in 2021 to remain flat, growing in 2022 driven by steel production growth in markets ex-China.

Aurizon Holdings' coal volume is expected to reduce -5% for the first half FY21 and down -4% for the full financial year FY21 to 205mt, below the company's guidance of 210-220mt.

Outperform retained with a target of $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $1.68
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

Bapcor's trading volumes in its core trade business have been above-average led by a number of industry tailwinds including government stimulus, increase in the sale of second-hand cars and a reduction in the use of public transport.

While expecting sales to moderate in the second half somewhat, Ord Minnett believes trading conditions will remain above average for some time.

Buy rating with a target of $9.20.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.94 Difference: $1.26
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.72, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie previews the earnings results of BHP Group (16-February) and expects strong earnings driven by the iron ore division.

The broker forecasts iron-ore to account for around 72% of earnings (EBITDA) and circa 83% of underlying earnings. It's estimated the interim dividend will be US$0.80, which is largely in-line with consensus expectations.

Outperform rating and price target of $50 are unchanged.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $43.91 Difference: $6.09
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.36, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley predicts Commonwealth Bank's first-half cash profit will be $4,108m, up circa 40% versus previous half while pre-provision profit will be up by about 10% to $6,640m.

The broker believes the bank's margin outcome will influence the share price in a major way. Some other areas of focus are a recovery in non-interest income, costs and credit quality, adds Morgan Stanley.

The Underweight rating is unchanged with a target price of $78.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $78.50 Current Price is $87.06 Difference: minus $8.56 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $76.51, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans expects the upcoming round of major bank trading updates, and one result for the Commonwealth Bank, to likely increase upside risk to earnings and dividend forecasts for FY21.

While the broker has the lowest FY21 credit impairment charge forecast, by comparison to other brokers, the analysts believe even their own forecasts are looking increasingly conservative.

Morgans adopts this view after reviewing recent APRA data showing loan repayment deferrals have declined significantly since September 2020. Total deferrals at the end of December 2020 were 1.9% of total loans.

The Commonwealth Bank's first half result is on the 10th of February and Morgans expects the share price to underperform the other major banks, as it has previously benefiited from the perception that it has the best risk profile.

As investor confidence in banks increases, the broker believes investors will place a more normal weighting on risk profiles and pay more attention to valuations. 

The Reduce rating and target price are unchanged.

Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $87.06 Difference: minus $23.06 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $76.51, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

For Coca-Cola Amatil's February 18 result, the broker is looking for signs of an Australian/NZ recovery in volumes, and an update on the
Fighting Fit cost program. In addition, any feedback/updates from the board regarding the CCEP takeover offer will be scrutinised.

Neutral rating and target price of $12.75 retained.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $13.10 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.43, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COF as Outperform (1) -

Centuria Office REIT's first-half result was a beat but Credit Suisse notes most of this was due to one-offs including a circa $500k benefit from reversing the expected credit losses for the second-half and adding-back higher than expected rent abatements worth $4.7m.

The REIT reported funds from operations of 11.2c, up 17% versus last year and the broker's estimated 9.7c.

Lower occupancy levels and an inability to lease out may impact second-half earnings, predicts the broker.

Outperform retained with a target of $2.14.

Target price is $2.14 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.16
If COF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COF as Underweight (5) -

Centuria Office REIT reported first-half funds from operations of 11.2c, higher than Morgan Stanley's 9.7c, led mostly by the Foxtel surrender payment at Robina and lower-than-expected covid provisioning of -$1.2m versus the broker's estimated -$3.2m.

The broker's key concern is the REIT's occupancy levels which have dropped to 91%. Morgan Stanley expects the vacant floors to take circa 12 months to lease-up, putting downward pressure on the REIT's funds from operations for the next 2yrs.

Underweight with the target moving to $2.05 from $2. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.07
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COF as Neutral (3) -

Centuria Office REIT's first half funds from operations were 19% ahead of UBS's estimate driven by the recognition of a Foxtel lease surrender payment at Robina.

Full-year FY21 FFO guidance of 19.4c-19.9c implies a lower FFO in the second half which UBS thinks reflects the REIT's vacant leasing space. As a result, the broker has adjusted its numbers to reflect leasing up vacant space out to FY22.

Neutral rating with a target price of $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.12
If COF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

Consumer durable retailers are expected by the broker to remain beneficiaries of constrained travel and service consumption and consumers upgrading home appliances.

Macquarie forecasts that 45-55% of the spending shift online will survive in the new post covid-19 world as consumers become used to the convenience of having their groceries delivered.

In the upcoming result for Coles Group, the broker believes the market will be looking for continued good management of covid-19 costs and expects a loss of some market share to Woolworths ((WOW)) through the online channel.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $18.50 from $18.30.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.34 Difference: $0.16
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.61, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

There has been little visible progress in CSL's R&D pipeline in the last 18 months but Citi does admit there's been a bit of a pandemic on, and timelines always run longer than expected anyway. The broker has nevertheless updated its pipeline valuation.

Citi ascribes a value to four assets, the most promising of which is the company's cardiovascular opportunity. Buy and $310 target retained.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $275.36 Difference: $34.64
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $306.20, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

The broker's current forecasts incorporate strong momentum in Japan and Germany, offset by the cost of pandemic-related trading restrictions across the group, which should start to reduce from the second half.

For Domino's Pizza Enterprises' February 17 result, the analyst feels the focus will be on divisional same store sales growth, an update on offshore store roll-outs and updates around the above-mentioned pandemic-related costs. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $90.30 are unchanged.

Target price is $90.30 Current Price is $94.64 Difference: minus $4.34 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $75.20, suggesting downside of -19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

The broker remains cautious on Flight Centre as there is still little clarity on when international travel will resume. 

The analyst considers the focus for the February 25 results will be on any signs of a faint recovery in bookings in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), Asia or Americas, where travel has somewhat resumed.

The Neutral rating and $15.30 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $14.71 Difference: $0.59
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.01, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

Consumer durable retailers are expected by the broker to remain beneficiaries of constrained travel and service consumption and consumers upgrading home appliances.

Low interest rates could spur a housing cycle helping to support such housing-exposed stocks like Harvey Norman.

The broker upgrades earnings forecasts reflecting positive operating leverage in the model.

The Outperform rating is maintained and the target increases to $6 from $4.80, after Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts for FY21-23 by 23%, 1.6% and 2.0%.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: $0.54
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has increased its earnings forecasts for Incitec Pivot materially to capture the rising prices of key fertiliser benchmarks.

The broker believes Incitec Pivot is set to enter a multi-year period of significant earnings growth, underpinned by recovering fertiliser prices and the unwinding of the impact from covid.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target increased to $3.20 from $2.70.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.46
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

Consumer durable retailers are expected by the broker to remain beneficiaries of constrained travel and service consumption and consumers upgrading home appliances.

Low interest rates could spur a housing cycle helping to support such housing-exposed stocks like JB Hi-Fi. As the company pre-announced its results on 18 January, the broker doesn't expect many surprises at the half-year results.

The Neutral rating and $53.10 target are unchanged given recent share price strength.

Target price is $53.10 Current Price is $51.59 Difference: $1.51
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.29, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Buy (1) -

Janus Henderson's December quarter result beat the broker's already above-cosensus forecast by 27%. Performance fees were well ahead, fund flows and market gains were stronger and costs were well controlled.

It wasn't all beer & skittles, with asset under managment growth net of movements both in and out of different funds and regions, and costs are expected to rise on investment and currency. Then there's the small matter of Dai-Ichi planning to sell its 17% stake.

Yet with solid performance expected to continue through FY21, the broker retains Buy and lifts its target to $48.50 from $45.80.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $42.59 Difference: $5.91
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.03, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets driving an overweight view on the sector.

Outperform rating. Target price increases to $53 from $40 after significant earnings forecast upgrades.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $42.59 Difference: $10.41
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.03, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

Janus Henderson Group delivered a strong December quarter result, observes Morgan Stanley, with adjusted earnings of US$1.04 per share beating Morgan Stanley's estimate by 40% on better performance fees and investment gains.

Operating income was circa 25% ahead of the broker's forecast and flows of -US$1.1bn were lower than feared. 

Dai-Ichi has decided to remain a product partner but will sell its near 17% stake in the group and exit the board.

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its Equal-weight rating with a target of $42.10. Industry view is In-line.

Target price is $42.10 Current Price is $42.59 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.03, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Lindsay Australia has upgraded its first-half operating income guidance to $26-$27m, up 14% versus last year. Ord Minnett attributes the upgrade to better than expected rail segment volumes and increases its FY21 earnings forecasts by 4%. 

Buy rating and the target rising to $0.42 from $0.40.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.08
If LAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets, driving an overweight view on the sector.

Magellan Financial Group continues to impress the broker on flows, with a net inflow of $1.2bn for the December quarter.

Despite recent underperformance driven by value rotation and appreciation of the Australian dollar, high watermarks are in reach and therefore performance fees are expected in the second half.

The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform and the target price lowered to $53 from $59.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $47.55 Difference: $5.45
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.32, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi believes Macquarie Group remains an attractive story, offering longer term structural opportunities and competive advantage in real estate and green energy. However the rising A$ and a recent lack of commodity price volatility leave expectations looking stretched.

Further acquisitions are unlikley to fill the gap, the broker suggests, and Biden's planned reversal of the Trump tax cuts would create a material headwind. The broker thus downgrades to Sell from Neutral on valuation, dropping its target to $120 from $125.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $134.70 Difference: minus $14.7 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $138.17, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

Consumer durable retailers are expected by the broker to remain beneficiaries of constrained travel and service consumption and consumers upgrading home appliances.

The broker sees strong growth in coming months across Metcash’s key categories and notes the supermarkets business in particular is benefitting from a virtuous cycle, which sees higher customer numbers driving better stock turnover.

However, the analyst remains nervous about the sales trajectory as the covid vaccine is rolled out nationally and retains a Neutral rating and $3.60 target price.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.42 Difference: $0.18
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects the upcoming round of major bank trading updates, and one result for the Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), to likely increase upside risk to earnings and dividend forecasts for FY21.

While the broker has the lowest FY21 credit impairment charge forecast, by comparison to other brokers, the analysts believe even their own forecasts are looking increasingly conservative.

Morgans adopts this view after reviewing recent APRA data showing loan repayment deferrals have declined significantly since September 2020. Total deferrals at the end of December 2020 were 1.9% of total loans.

The National Australia Bank's first quarter trading update is on the 16th of February and Morgans rates the bank as the third most preffered of the big four banks.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $22 from $20.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $24.70 Difference: minus $2.7 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.68, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Nick Scali should continue to benefit through 2021 on consumers staying at home with limited spending options given travel restrictions, the broker suggests. FY22 will be cycling a covid-driven FY21, but the market has taken this into account.

But on extended international travel restrictions, HomeBuilder, high savings rates and currency tailwinds, FY22 risk is still to the upside, the broker believes. The company is also assessing multiple M&A opportunities.

Buy retained, target rises to $12.05 from $11.65.

Target price is $12.05 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $1.54
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses a very strong first half result with revenues up 24%, translating to profit (NPAT) up 100% from operating leverage and margin expansion.

A highlight for the broker is strong written orders will be recognised in 2021. Also, gross margins increased to 64%, and while the reduced marketing spend may not be maintained, it's considered the foreign exchange tailwind and some efficiency gains will be.

Outperform rating is retained. Target is raised to $11.10 from $9.20.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $0.59
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCZ as Outperform (1) -

Zinc production in the December quarter was -4% less than the previous quarter and below Credit Suisse's estimate, led by lower mining and recovery due to heavy rainfall. Costs were higher led by fx headwinds.

New Century Resources' FY21 guidance remains unchanged but the company now aims to achieve lower-end production target at top end costs. 

Outperform retained with the target price unchanged at $0.45.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.26
If NCZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets, driving an overweight view on the sector.

Only minor earnings forecast changes were made for Navigator Global Investments and the target price and Outperform rating are unchanged.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.23
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi believes both Origin Energy and AGL Energy have misread the electricity market, assuming a $75MWh price signal for investment. The broker assumes $60MWh long term and doubts the two utilities have sufficiently hedged their volumes in FY22-23.

Origin's risk mangement of its use of the benchmark Japan Korea Market index has disappointed the broker, noting JKM can be hedged beyond two years.

The company's profit warning leads Citi to cut its target to $4.76 from $6.61 and downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $4.76 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.14
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy has reduced its FY21 operating income guidance for energy markets to $1-1.14bn from $1.15-1.3bn, -13% below consensus and Credit Suisse's estimated $1.2bn. For APLNG, the low end of production guidance was increased slightly.

The broker decreases FY21 net profit after tax estimates for FY21-22. Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $4.80 from $5.10. 

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.18
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy has updated FY21 guidance, with Energy Markets in a range of $1.0-1.14bn, down -15% on the previous guidance. Macquarie explains electricity has been hit by lower retail tariffs, business re-contracting at lower prices and a mild summer.

The broker adds, Emerging Markets gas has also been hit by softer demand. While APLNG is a good news story, the broker suggests this has arguably been captured in the current share price.

The analyst revises down FY21-23 forecast earnings by -25%, -2.9% and -2.7% and lowers the price target to $5.35 from $5.69. The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.73
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Add (1) -

Origin Energy has lowered FY21 guidance for Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) to $1bn - $1.14bn. Guidance for APLNG distributions to the company are higher than Morgan's previous forecast.

Headwinds facing the electricity sector do not appear to be weakening anytime soon, notes the analyst.

The broker lowers expectations for utilisation of the Eraring plant, given the ongoing weakness in spot electricity prices. In addition to assuming higher gas purchase prices, this reduces the broker's estimated FY21 underlying earnings for Energy Markets to $1.1bn.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $6.06 from $6.04.

Target price is $6.06 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $1.44
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy has lowered its energy markets division’s operating earnings guidance. Ord Minnett notes this implies a -21-31% decline in pre-tax earnings this fiscal year.

The downgrade in guidance was driven by lower wholesale prices flowing into retail tariffs and lower gas retail contribution.

The broker retains its Buy rating and reduces the target to $5.30 from $6.20.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $0.68
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDL as Outperform (1) -

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets driving an overweight view on the sector.

Pendal Group recorded around -$1.6bn of net outflows in the December quarter. Nonetheless, the analyst sees signs of an improvement in J O Hambro Capital Management (JOHCM) retail flows in January and a re-rating is possible should this continue.

Overall, there was a better-than-expected market performance partially offset by reduced flows and foreign exchange movements. The Outperform rating is maintained and the target lifted to $7.30 from $6.80.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.42 Difference: $0.88
If PDL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.18, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PGH as Hold (3) -

Pact Group Holdings will release its first-half result on 17 February.

Ord Minnett expects operating income to rise by 11.2%, noting good earnings momentum in Pact Group's reuse business. The broker has also increased its FY21 growth forecasts for the contract manufacturing business due to benefits from covid demand trends.

Despite valuation support, the broker wants the company to show stability in its core rigid packaging business. 

Hold recommendation with the target price increasing to $2.70 from 2.50.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.2
If PGH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets driving an overweight view on the sector.

For Pinnacle Investment Management Group, the analyst lifts FY21-23 EPS estimates by 5%, 7%, and 9% reflecting increased services fee share and affiliate ownership assumptions.

The broker notes performance fees are an increasing component of earnings, as around 33% of FUM and 18 strategies are capable of earning such fees.

Outperform rating and target rises to $9.48 from $9.

Target price is $9.48 Current Price is $8.85 Difference: $0.63
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets driving an overweight view on the sector.

For Perpetual there was better-than-expected market performance, offset by lower flows, foreign exchange movements and lower
Corporate Trust revenue.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target increases to $32.50 from $31.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $33.43 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.76, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PTM as Underperform (5) -

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets driving an overweight view on the sector.

For Platinum Asset Management there was better-than-expected market performance partially offset by reduced flows.

Underperform and the target price rises to $4 from $3.40.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie previews the earnings results of Rio Tinto (17-February) and expects strong earnings driven by the iron ore division.

The broker's 2020 headline forecasts are largely in-line with consensus and the analyst expects earnings (EBITDA) to be up 10% year-on-year. The analyst forecasts a final dividend of US$3.17 (full year dividend of US$4.72), which is at the mid-point of a wide consensus.

The Outperform rating and $125 target are unchanged.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $114.28 Difference: $10.72
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.50, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

For the March results the broker expects Sigma Healthcare will continue to be impacted by the covid restrictions. Though as Australia re-opens, it's considered a normalisation in pharmacy demand and a cost out program should help to drive earnings growth.

The Neutral rating and $0.64 target are maintained.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Accumulate (2) -

Suncorp Group will report its first-half result on 9 February. Ord Minnett believes the result should benefit from investment gains and favourable bad debt trends in its bank.

The broker considers the stock cheap, and thus maintains its Accumulate recommendation with the target moving to $12.83 from $11.85.

Target price is $12.83 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: $2.69
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

For Treasury Wine Estate's February 17 result, the broker is looking for details of the group’s strategy to deal with the ongoing trade dispute with China. Also the Australian strategy is considered relevant if other exporters look to redirect volume into the domestic market.

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and $10.60 target.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $10.09 Difference: $0.51
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.43, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates UWL as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Unity Group reported an impressive first-half operating cash flow of $26.6m, observes Ord Minnett, up 47% versus the second half of FY20 and beating the broker's expectations.

The broker highlights the beat was driven by strong cash flow conversion, rising momentum in the telco businesses and a buoyant 1-month contribution from OptiComm.

Evidence of better housing activity supports Ord Minnett's private fibre construction forecasts for FY21-22 and de-risks the execution risks around the OptiComm transaction.

Even so, Ord Minnett reduces its rating to Accumulate from Buy given the recent share price strength. Target rises to $2.06 from $1.95.

Target price is $2.06 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.2
If UWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Morgans expects the upcoming round of major bank trading updates, and one result for the Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), to likely increase upside risk to earnings and dividend forecasts for FY21.

While the broker has the lowest FY21 credit impairment charge forecast, by comparison to other brokers, the analysts believe even their own forecasts are looking increasingly conservative.

Morgans adopts this view after reviewing recent APRA data showing loan repayment deferrals have declined significantly since September 2020. Total deferrals at the end of December 2020 were 1.9% of total loans.

The Westpac Bank's first quarter trading update is on the 17th of February and Morgans lifts the bank to the most preferred of the big four banks due to the excessive asset quality damage priced in.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $25.50 from $23.50.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $21.71 Difference: $3.79
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.71, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

Consumer durable retailers are expected by the broker to remain beneficiaries of constrained travel and service consumption and consumers upgrading home appliances.

Low interest rates could spur a housing cycle helping to support such housing-exposed stocks like Wesfarmers.

Macquarie upgrades the company to Outperform, as it should benefit from increased housing turnover which spurs renovations. In addition, supply chain issues in the Kmart Group are considered to have improved significantly. Target price lifts to $60 from $49.70.

Other tailwinds listed by the analyst include low interest rates, recovering consumer sentiment, personal tax cuts, accumulated household savings, continued restrictions on travel and stronger housing momentum in 2021.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $55.00 Difference: $5
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.50, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

Consumer durable retailers are expected by the broker to remain beneficiaries of constrained travel and service consumption and consumers upgrading home appliances.

Macquarie forecasts that 45-55% of the spending shift online will survive in the new post covid-19 world as consumers become used to the convenience of having their groceries delivered.

The broker continues to believe Woolworth's online offering, which has captured market share over the past four months, continues to outperform broader sales trends in the sector.

Target is raised to $44.50 from $40.75, as Macquarie expects recent share losses to independents to reverse throughout the
year as mobility increases. Outperform retained.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $40.99 Difference: $3.51
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.80, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates Z1P as Neutral (3) -

On its earnings release, PayPal noted its new BNPL product has proven to be the fastest launch for the company ever. Rival Klarna highlighted 15m customers, up 4m from November.

It's a double-edged sword for locals Afterpay and Zip Co, the broker suggests. On the one hand it underscores a large addressable market offering growth, but on the other hand competition, particularly from a big player like PayPal.

The broker sees Zip as relatiely more exposed given a lack of scale relative to Afterpay. Neutral and $6.50 target retained on Zip.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $8.04 Difference: minus $1.54 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.64, suggesting downside of -23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources