Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

UBS's new quantitative model used real-time data to derive historical and forecast realised electricity price premiums for individual firm assets (coal, gas, hydro) across AGL Energy and Origin Energy's portfolios.

The model projects wider intraday spreads and higher premiums as renewables rise and coal exits. These asset-level premiums drove EBITDA upgrades for both the companies until FY29.

In the case of AGL Energy, the updates include asset-level production and price spreads, battery earnings (2x Queensland units), and revised fuel, coal, and generation assumptions.

Higher renewables capex and delayed transmission build-out lift costs estimates until FY33, with D&A peaking in FY30 amid heavy reinvestment.

The broker notes the company's near-term earnings face D&A headwinds, but stronger generation price premiums will more than offset this, supporting medium-term valuation upside.

Buy. Target rises to $10.70 from $10.65.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $8.88 Difference: $1.82
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.98, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

Citi expects ALS Ltd to announce a "solid" half-year result next month, and the analyst posits an ongoing exploration cycle is not discounted in the share price, with the current upcycle only accounted for.

A further "surge" in exploration activity should underpin a lift in sample volume growth for ALS. Management is expected to offer conservative commentary around topline growth for commodities, but industry feedback suggests the risk is to the upside.

Citi believes the commodities servicing business could be in a multiyear upgrade cycle.

Buy. Target unchanged at $19.45.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: minus $3.09 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals' September quarter update was mixed, Macquarie notes, with a minor beat in gold production but a miss versus copper/zinc/lead production. That said, one quarter in, production of all four metals is comfortably ahead of the midpoint of guidance.

FY26 is somewhat of a transitional year for Aurelia, Macquarie suggests, with volumes from Federation ramping up and first production from Great Cobar still some time off.

For investors prepared to wait FY27/28, the company screens well on valuation, in the broker's view.

Outperform and 40c target retained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.145
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 58.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals' September quarter update was mixed, but on balance, it came broadly in line with Ord Minnett's expectations once adjusted for the concentrate build-up.

The Resource / Reserve statement highlighted growth at Peak copper, which offset the declines at Federation. The latter was somewhat expected given prior commentary.

Ord Minnett adjusts its outlook given this new information, leading to a target price decrease to 37c from 38c. Buy retained.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.115
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 58.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Aurelia Metals' 1Q26 update showed a strong start to FY26, with production of 10.4koz gold, 0.5kt copper, 6.5kt zinc, and 3.8kt lead. The highlights were strong recoveries in zinc and lead at 85.5% and 83%, respectively.

The company reaffirmed FY26 production guidance across all metals. Operating cost of -$70m tracked well with the $275-315m FY26 guidance, and while the unit cost of $367/t was higher, the broker expects it to fall as Federation ramps up.

One highlight was the release of the Resource and Reserve (R&R) statement, which cut the Federation’s R&R by -8%. However, total group Mineral Resources rose 12% and Ore Reserves 17%, supported by strong exploration at Nymagee.

Great Cobar’s development is on track and considered to be lower risk than Federation, the broker notes. Cash of $88m and liquidity of $124m provide solid financial flexibility ahead of FY26 refinancing.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 42c.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.165
If AMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 58.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights the market has applauded ANZ Bank's new strategy, with the shares outperforming its peers by some 10% over the last month and circa 12% year-to-date.

Comparing the bank's strategy to that of peer Westpac ((WBC)), the analyst notes ANZ's is more a pragmatic, tech-based solution in redesigning the Plus front-end. This should be easier for investors to appreciate than the back-end Unite strategy of Westpac.

The main driver of improved return on equity is cost-based reduction, Citi explains, including synergies from the Suncorp bank integration.

Citi lifts its earnings forecasts for ANZ by 7% for FY26 and FY27, with an upgrade in target price to $37 from $32.50. Neutral rating remains, and Citi prefers ANZ over Westpac.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.95, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

ANZ Bank's strategy update revealed there are many sources of cost savings, and Morgan Stanley believes ANZ can keep costs broadly flat over the next three years.

However the broker thinks return on tangible equity (ROTE) and cost to income (CTI) ratio targets are based on revenue growth assumptions which are too optimistic, given competitive disadvantages in retail banking.

Morgan Stanley believes most of the benefits of the productivity agenda are now reflected in consensus expectations and the absolute PE multiple. Evidence of better operating performance and volume-margin management is required to drive earnings upgrades and share price upside.

Equal-weight retained, target rises to $34.00 from $30.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: minus $3.01 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.95, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi reckons US-based automotive/industrial parts distributor Genuine Parts Company's 3Q25 result has positive implications for Amotiv, one of its suppliers.

The result showed strong Australasia automotive like-for-like sales growth of 5.1%, sustaining 2Q momentum. The broker notes this strength is positive for Amotiv's PU (polyurethane) division, which made up 40% of FY25 EBITA.

The outperformance likely reflects market share gains away from Bapcor ((BAP)) in the broker's view, as its 1Q26 Trade sales fell -0.9%.

Overall, the result reinforces the broker's confidence in the company's outlook ahead of its upcoming AGM (24 Oct).

Buy. Target price $12.56.

Target price is $12.56 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $3.62
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group announced 1Q26 production with copper better than expected, Citi notes, as output from Escondida remained firm. Copper production came in at 494kt, up 4% y/y.

In contrast, iron ore production in WA was lower than anticipated due to maintenance work impacts on volumes. Iron ore production slipped -2% y/y to 62mt with pellet production at San Marco steady.

Met coal production rose 8% y/y to 4.9mt. The group has retained FY26 guidance with iron ore production expected to rise in the December quarter following the completion of car dumper 3.

Analyst coverage is transferred. Neutral rating and $43 target unchanged.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $44.13 Difference: minus $1.13 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.65, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group's Sep quarter saw beats for met coal and copper, with iron ore in line with Macquarie. There was no commentary on iron ore price negotiations with China, while realised prices were in line.

Macquarie notes attractive growth catalysts in copper are long-dated, and awaits capex numbers for Olympic Dam and Vicuna, while Escondida is a slow grind.

The broker recently switched preference to Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP due to a better catalyst backdrop into next year. Although BHP's portfolio of quality assets is still enviable, growth catalysts appear to be longer dated than peers.

Target rises to $43 from $42, Neutral retained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $44.13 Difference: minus $1.13 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.65, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

BHP Group's Sep quarter featured no change to FY26 guidance. A strong copper performance at Escondida offset slightly weaker iron ore, but Morgan Stanley expects second-half iron ore weighting.

Pleasingly for the broker, car dumper works are now completed (ahead of schedule), and Samarco continues its strength.

Met coal had a strong start, offset by thermal coal, given additional maintenance.

Morgan Stanley retains Overweight and a $48 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $44.13 Difference: $3.87
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.65, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

BHP Group has reiterated production and cost guidance for FY26 across its key copper, iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal businesses after a September quarter that provided few surprises to Ord Minnett.

Copper was the standout, while iron ore shipments and production were largely in line despite the ongoing dispute with China's state buying agency.

BHP noted the first stage of the Jansen potash project in Canada’s Saskatchewan province was now 73% complete, and reiterated guidance from July for first production in the middle of 2027.

Accumulate and $45 target retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $44.13 Difference: $0.87
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.65, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

According to UBS, BHP Group reported a "solid" 1Q26 result. Iron ore shipments at 70mt were down -2% y/y due to planned maintenance and impact from the rebuild of car dumper 3 , but expected to provide robust performance for the rest of FY26.

Copper production of 329kt was above both the analyst's and consensus estimates from record concentrator throughput and recoveries. Escondida production is 1H weighted, and SA production is typically 2H weighted. Unit cost guidance was unchanged.

Met coal production rose 8% to 4.9mt on increased underground production rates at Broadmeadow and increased prime stripping. Energy coal slipped by -4% y/y, and Jansen stage 1 is now 73% complete, with first production on track for mid-2027.

UBS recently raised its forecasts for key commodities and now tweaked the FY26 EPS forecast down by -2% post update.

Neutral rating retained. Target price unchanged at $45.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $44.13 Difference: $0.87
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.65, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi came away from Collins Foods' investor day with a more positive outlook on the stock, alongside an improved appreciation of the number of growth levers at hand.

The analyst also came to understand the level of expertise and "sophistication" Collins has achieved in operating KFC restaurants.

The most pleasing aspect, Citi notes, was the company's readiness to raise investor and analyst engagement going forward.

Buy rating reiterated, with FY26 guidance viewed as conservative. Target $10.13.

Target price is $10.13 Current Price is $10.91 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.56, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Collins Foods' investor day revealed Australia growth is to be driven by store count growth, efficiency initiatives, and menu innovation to drive daypart expansion. 

KFC is mature in Australia, Macquarie notes, with store rollout targets to represent 1% of KFC's national footprint and 3% for Collins Foods. The major opportunity lays with network renewal and menu innovation to drive sales.

German expansion plans were reiterated, with a build-up of the site pipeline key. Macquarie's EU store forecasts are -8% below management's FY30 targets.

Macquarie retains Neutral, driven by QSR/fast-casual competition in Australia and a lack of track-record in EU expansion. A remodelling of cash flows leads to a target increase to $11.20 from $8.50.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $10.91 Difference: $0.29
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.56, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's AGM trading update reiterated prior FY26 guidance, but pointed to a greater second half dependency than in recent years, Macquarie notes.

Macquarie expected a second half skew, but soft market conditions, New Chum challenges, synergy realisation and cost run-off in the second half drive more of a skew than assumed.

The Cleanaway thesis remains attractive, the broker believes, underpinned by a solid earnings growth outlook, attractive valuation comparisons to US peers, and a broadly supportive macro and regulatory backdrop.

Macquarie looks forward to tidier execution. Outperform retained, target falls to $3.45 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.79
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GDG as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter assesses Generation Development's 1Q26 update as strong, easing concerns around the Evidentia acquisition.

Life sales of $330m beat the broker's estimate of $251m, and net inflows of $275m exceeded $169m forecast. The company won 60% of annualised market inflows.

Evidentia’s FUM rose to $32.6bn, up $3bn q/q, with strong new client wins and $4bn in new tailored accounts. Lonsec demand remained robust, supporting margin expansion.

The broker reckons the current run-rate is tracking well with guidance for $12bn annual FUM growth, including market returns. The upcoming AGM on Nov 20 and aligned management incentives underpin confidence in continued growth, in the broker's view.

EPS forecast for FY26 raised by 1% and by 2% for FY27 on upgrade to Life flows estimates.

Buy. Target lifted to $8.40 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $1.12
If GDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

At first look, Morgan Stanley found Generation Development's investment bond quarterly inflows ahead of forecast. Evidentia was slightly behind the broker, but meaningful new wins will go live in the Dec quarter.

Management pointed to a "slightly" increased cost base post-restructure, potentially allaying fears of a material step-up.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, citing some clear positives but also concerns. The broker would see any potential share price weakness as a buying opportunity. Target unchanged at $7.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $0.22
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Accumulate (2) -

Generation Development’s 1Q26 Investment Bond sales, up 57% year on year, were a record level, beating the previous quarterly high. Sales also came in comfortably above consensus, Morgans notes. 

1Q26 Investment Bond netflows were up 75%, again a record quarter, and well above consensus. Total Evidentia SMA assets under management grew $3bn for the quarter to reach $32.5bn.

While Generation Development’s share price has increased strongly over the last year, the re-rating has been supported by improving overall fundamentals, in Morgans's view.

The broker has been impressed by the recent step-up in the Investment Bond sales trajectory, whilst the acquisitions of Lonsec and Evidentia give Generation Development a market leading position in the fast-growing SMA space.

Accumulate retained, target rises to $8.01 from $7.49.

Target price is $8.01 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $0.73
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi visited Goodman Group's Oakdale Logistics project in Western Sydney as part of Citi's A&NZ Conference.

The analyst reiterated the group's strength in the logistics and warehouses business, with ongoing opportunities across the group's global reach.

The strength of the project management capacity of Goodman was evident in transforming an operational mine into an industrial precinct in five years, against the typical time frame of 5 to 15 years.

The project exemplifies the conversion to industrial capacity in Western Sydney for future demand from low-value farmland and previous mining spaces.

Citi has a Buy for Goodman Group. Target unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.27 Difference: $5.73
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.82, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Citi visited GPT Group's Rouse Hill Centre Development in Sydney's expanding north-west corridor.

Management pointed to Australia's robust real estate outlook, with good demand underpinned by population growth, which is exceeding the retail real estate coming on stream.

The group emphasised the importance placed on tenancy relationships and aims to remove downtime over rent-based selection of tenants only. This strategy has proven to be a winner, with the group portfolio occupancy at 99.7% at the end of June, with strong lease spreads.

Buy rated with a $6 target.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: $0.56
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

GPT Group's Retail investor day showed the strength of the retail investment portfolio is highlighted in outperformance versus listed peers. This is across multiple measures, including occupancy, net income growth, annual turnover growth and specialty productivity.

Macquarie suggests Retail is passing an inflection point with improved fundamentals, stabilised valuations, capital inflow and expected income-led returns. Retail is 39% of GPT's investment portfolio and comprises 43% of its assets under management.

From here, Macquarie believes evidence of growth in third-party funds under management will be key. Outperform and $6.26 target retained.

Target price is $6.26 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: $0.82
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GSS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Genetic Signatures' 1Q26 revenue rose 15% y/y to $5.4m, consistent with Bell Potter's 1H forecast of $9.5m. Sales were dominated by the Australian infectious disease market (around 90%), boosted by a severe flu season.

EMEA revenue grew 27%, led by the UK, and representing 10% of total sales. The broker expects growth to accelerate in the coming years.

The key milestone was first US sales in September, with three customers signed and strong potential given 9x higher US pricing.

Cash outflow improved to -$2.5m from -$6.2m, leaving $28.2m cash balance and supportive of two years of funding capacity, with more expected from a $4m R&D refund likely in 2Q26.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 55c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.17
If GSS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter describes Hub24's 1Q26 as strong, with platform net inflows of $5.2bn, ahead of its $4.5bn forecast and consensus of $4.4bn.

Momentum remained solid, supported by $8.9bn gross inflows and lower outflows of -$3.7bn. Platform FUA (funds under administration) rose to $122bn, boosted by $4.1bn in market gains, mainly from the US market exposure.

Adviser growth remained robust, up 132 in 1Q, and on track for 500-600 annual net additions. Overall, the broker notes the update showed continued execution and adviser engagement, with rising flows per adviser and strong retail traction.

EPS forecast for FY26 upgraded by 2% and by 3% for FY27 on the stronger update and a slight increase to the FY26 net inflow assumption.

Buy. Target rises to $135 from $125.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $118.59 Difference: $16.41
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $107.96, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24's Sep quarter platform net inflows were ahead of Macquarie and consensus, and were a first quarter record. Funds under administration were also ahead, reflecting both stronger net inflows and markets.

FUA mix by client channel shifted slightly to retail, Macquarie notes, which should benefit the margin. Market share lifted to 9.0% versus 8.7% a year ago.

Despite a robust outlook, the broker retains a Neutral rating given a challenging P/E multiple of 3.6x, equivalent to a 6% premium to the five-year average. Target rises to $104.20 from $103.30.

Target price is $104.20 Current Price is $118.59 Difference: minus $14.39 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.96, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HUB as Overweight (1) -

At first look, Morgans Stanley finds Hub24's 1Q26 net inflows beat consensus, while market movements were also more positive. 

No update to funds under administration outlook provided, but the broker sees current momentum as tracking at least in line with targets.

Platform FUA was up 33% year on year; platform net inflows up 28%.

Overweight retained, target $121. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $121.00 Current Price is $118.59 Difference: $2.41
If HUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $107.96, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Sell (5) -

Hub24 continues to operationally outperform its platform peers Netwealth Group ((NWL)) and Praemium ((PPS)), although all three providers are set to benefit from the ongoing industry themes that see migration from proprietary platforms, Ord Minnett suggests.

The company posted record quarterly net inflows of $5.2bn in the September quarter, and on a run rate basis, the quarter has already delivered 60% of consensus estimates for the first half of FY26.

Ord Minnett also notes Hub24 has no direct exposure to the First Guardian and Shield issues that have affected other platform operators.

Target rises to $58.90 from $57.20, Sell retained on valuation.

Target price is $58.90 Current Price is $118.59 Difference: minus $59.69 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.96, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24 reported 1Q26 platform FUA of $122bn, which included robust net inflows over the period of $5.2bn, some 4% above UBS' estimate and 17% above consensus.

The robust run rate achieved through to mid-August seems to have been sustained, with growth underpinned by organic accretion and no large migrations.

Compared to Netwealth Group ((NWL)), this is the second quarter where Hub24's FUA has exceeded its peer and is now 1.8% higher.

Adviser growth rose 2.5% on the prior quarter and up 11% y/y, with 41 new distribution agreements. UBS highlights Hub24 continues to maintain its robust adviser support, ranking number one for Overall Satisfaction in Adviser Ratings 2025.

UBS lifts its EPS estimates by 2% each for FY26/FY27 post the 1Q26 update. Target price is raised to $117 from $112, with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $118.59 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.96, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

At its AGM, management assured Judo Capital  is "on track" to achieve its FY26 guidance, and stated that it is "confident" in its margin guidance of 3.0-3.1%. The new lending margin (4.4%) increased from the prior quarter (4.1%) and the new deposit margin (mid-80bp) was better than 2H25 (99bp).

1Q26 loan growth of $463m (15% annualised) is tracking broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts and deposit growth of $630m (26%) is better.

The broker highlights commentary of: "stable" banker attrition rate despite "aggressive recruitment programs" by other banks; there are a "range of productivity initiatives underway"; "excellent progress" on new savings products; "continued to optimise" wholesale funding.

Overweight and $2.15 target retained. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.43
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JDO as Buy (1) -

At Judo Capital's AGM, the CEO offered a first-quarter trading update which was positive, according to UBS, with a confirmation of FY26 net profit after tax guidance of $180–$190m.

The lending pipeline remains robust at $1.9bn, with warehouse facilities starting to contribute to gross loans & advances. The analyst also points to improving asset quality and better operating leverage.

UBS believes Judo is a high-growth stock in the SME lending sector, which should attract a scarcity premium in the banking industry.

Buy rated with $2.20 target unchanged.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.48
If JDO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Buy (1) -

A "solid" 1Q26 update was reported by Mirvac Group, according to Citi, including 619 sales, a rise of 79% y/y, which was basically flat on 4Q25. The unconditional sales balance rose with an additional 153 contracts, which implies 772 sales in 1Q26, a rise of over 20% q/q.

Management has guided to FY26 residential volumes of 2000–2500, with more robust 1Q and 2Q results tilting to possible volume upside, the analyst explains.

Mirvac trades around a 5% premium to NTA, and there is risk to the upside as office asset valuations bottom out and other commercial property asset class valuations likely trend higher.

Buy rating retained with a positive EPS growth outlook for FY26 and possible 12-13% growth out to FY28. Target $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.18
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views MyState as an attractive income stock with a forecast 5.3% fully franked yield in FY26. Dividends reflect strong earnings growth over the next three years as Auswide merger synergies are delivered.

In an expensive banking sector with only modest forecast earnings and dividend growth to FY28, MyState is a standout, the broker suggests.

While Ord Minnett sees FY26 as the heavy lifting year for the Auswide merger, FY27 and FY28 will reap the merger benefits. 

The broker retains Buy and strongly recommends the stock for income-seeking investors. Target unchanged at $4.98.

Target price is $4.98 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.49
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi notes update from Adairs ((ADH)) this morning, noting a slowing in 1Q26 sales for Focus on Furniture despite promotional activity. This prompted a -2% downgrade to 1H26 sales guidance.

Ahead of Nick Scali's AGM update (29 Oct), the broker sees the possibility of softer recent A&NZ trading, mirroring weakness seen in housing-exposed peers like Beacon Lighting ((BLX)) and Adairs.

The broker reckons the slowdown coincided with expectations of a paused rate-cut cycle after the recent monthly inflation prints. 

Still, the broker maintains a positive view on expectations of improvement in housing demand, with UK operations also expected to benefit from refurbishments, stronger marketing, and easing staffing issues.

Buy. Target price $24.40.

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $22.08 Difference: $2.32
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.43, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

National Storage REIT provided a positive trading update for 1Q26 at its AGM, with a rise in occupancy, rent and revenue per available metre (RevPam) growth, Citi observes.

Occupancy lifted to 81.5% in the Sept quarter from 80.8% in the prior quarter, which was well above the consensus of 77.2% for 1H26.

Rent per square metre rose to $341.6 from $339.9 in the June quarter, and annualising the RevPam of 1.4% comes to a growth of 5.6%.

The analyst also points to the robust development pipeline; nine acquisitions were settled and five new projects, representing a total of 41,850 square metres of net lettable area.

Buy retained for National Storage REIT. Target unchanged at $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.42
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NTU as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -

The US Export-Import Bank is interested in providing $350m in debt funding to Northern Minerals following the Trump-Albanese meeting. This could assist Wolverine enter production with less equity dilution than Ord Minnett expected.

Moreover, prices of scarce heavy rare earth elements that are rich in Wolverine are soaring. Consequently, Ord Minnett upgrades its target price to 7.5c from 3.6c and its recommendation to Speculative Buy from Hold.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.02
If NTU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Sell (5) -

Netwealth Group's underlying net inflows were $4bn for the Sep quarter, matching Ord Minnett's forecasts, although flows seemed to fade in the latter part of the three months to 30 September.

The broker notes Netwealth has exposure to the tune of $120m from the First Guardian debacle that the corporate regulator is still investigating.

Target rises to $18.60 from $18.30, Sell retained on valuation.

Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $33.00 Difference: minus $14.4 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.55, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS's new quantitative model used real-time data to derive historical and forecast realised electricity price premiums for individual firm assets (coal, gas, hydro) across AGL Energy and Origin Energy's portfolios.

The model projects wider intraday spreads and higher premiums as renewables rise and coal exits. These asset-level premiums drove EBITDA upgrades for both companies until FY29.

In the case of Origin Energy, apart from applying asset-specific generation premiums from the analysis, the broker trimmed Octopus admin costs as it becomes tax-paying.

The broker also delayed wholesale price pass-through assumption to customers post-FY32, modestly softening electricity gross margins.

Buy. Target rises to $14.10 from $13.90.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $12.36 Difference: $1.74
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.31, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMT as Buy (1) -

PMET Resources released its CV5 lithium-only Feasibility Study at Shaakichiuwaanaan, showing capex of -CA$2bn, up 30%, and prompting a six-month delay to UBS's first production forecast.

Despite higher costs, the broker notes the production estimate of 800ktpa SC5.5 and cost (AISC) of US$600/t remain in line, with ramp-up expected to be faster.

The broker's project NPV estimate is CA$1.2bn vs the company's CA$1.6bn, before applying CA$300m in tax credits and potential government funding.

While funding remains the main risk, multiple value-adding opportunities (tantalum/caesium recovery, CV13 integration, modular build) provide upside potential, in the broker's view.

Buy. Target unchanged at 65c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.23
If PMT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 82.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Praemium's 1Q26 total net inflows of $550m were sharply higher than Bell Potter's forecast of $287m and consensus of $108m. Normalised net inflows of $667m were also tracking well ahead of the $1.4bn FY26 consensus.

Total inflows of $1.23bn were the strongest since launch, up $582m y/y, driven by improving Spectrum momentum and internal product growth, the broker highlights. Powerwrap stabilised, with adviser restocking and reduced client exits supporting confidence.

OneVue integration advanced, with 60% of transfers completed, supporting cost synergy realisation from 2H26.

Overall, the broker assesses Praemium is making clear progress on integration, inflows, and attrition reduction, positioning it for stronger organic growth.

Minor revisions to forecasts. Buy. Target rises to $1.05 from $1.00 on reduction to WACC in valuation to 11% from 11.7%.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.155
If PPS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Praemium reported group net inflows of $550m in the September quarter (1Q26), sharply higher than Ord Minnett’s forecast and well above market expectations.

SMA (separately managed accounts) and Spectrum products drove the result, while Powerwrap achieved its best inflows since 2022.

OneVue continued to see outflows but with improving trends. The broker reckons exposure to the First Guardian issue is limited to $3m outside the OneVue platform.

EPS forecasts lifted by 3.3-7.1% across FY26–FY28. Buy. Target price $1.15.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.255
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Qoria's 1Q26 update was strong in Bell Potter's view and included an upgrade to FY26 revenue guidance. Exit ARR (annual recurring revenue) was up 25% y/y to $149m, and cash receipts rose 23% y/y to $46.3m, both broadly in line with expectations.

Operating cash flow of $17.1m, however, missed the broker's forecast due to higher staff and redundancy costs, plus FX impacts.

FY26 revenue guidance is now for over $145m revenue from over $140m flagged before. The broker forecasts $146.5m revenue in FY26, following 1% lift in its forecast, and also raised the FY27 estimate by 1%.

The broker also reduced the end-FY26 net debt forecast to $35.4m from $36.5m previously estimated.

Buy. Target rises to $1.00 from $0.90 on revenue upgrade, increase in valuation multiple and reduction in WACC.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.15
If QOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Qoria delivered a solid 1Q26 update, with ARR (annual recurring revenue) up 24% y/y to $149m and strong growth in the Qustodio business driving performance.

Free cash flow of $11.5m beat estimates by 11%, supported by record cash receipts of $46.3m, up 23% y/y, and lower interest costs. Segment growth was broad-based, with US up 27%, UK 6% and ANZ up 32%, and a 24% y/y increase in pipeline to $10.4m.

Qustodio ARR rose $2.4m q/q to $30m, tracking above its 30% internal growth target and delivering a 300% ROI (return on investment) on marketing spend, the broker highlights.

Buy. Target rises to 96c from 67c as the broker reverts to equal-weighted DCF/multiple valuation. 

Target price is $0.96 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.11
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates QOR as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Qoria’s 1Q26 trading update showed solid group growth but softer K-12 annual recurring revenue (ARR) additions, the weakest in six quarters, Shaw and Partners observes.

Exit ARR rose 24% y/y to $149m, and cash receipts grew 23% to $46.3m, though cash payments increased 19%, pressuring margins. Qustodio (consumer) was the standout, while higher costs and redundancies offset gains.

The company lifted FY26 revenue guidance to over $145m from over $140m before. However, net debt guidance was softened to “in-line” with FY25 from "in-line or lower" flagged at 4Q25 update.

The broker lifted FY26 revenue forecast by 3% and FY27 by 4%, but the net profit forecast was downgraded for FY26 and lifted for FY27.

Target rises to 61c from 52c. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold, given the 74% year-to-date share rally.

Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If QOR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of ResMed's Sep Q result, Morgan Stanley notes Americas device revenue is seasonally weak in the Sep Q relative to the prior quarter. Over 1Q15-1Q25, the average revenue decline compared to the prior quarter was -5%.

Morgan Stanley's 1Q26 forecasts imply a -7% decline versus 4Q25, but with growth of 5% versus 1Q25. For Americas mask/accessories, the broker forecasts year on year growth of 13%.

Philips/Respironics is currently restricted from selling new sleep and respiratory devices in the US as part of a consent decree with the US FDA.

The broker continues to see a favourable growth outlook for ResMed, supported by increased uptake in addressable markets, reflecting increased diagnosis and awareness of OSA. Long-term growth forecasts capture the potential impacts associated with GLP-1s.

Overweight retained, target rises to US$304 from US$298. Industry view: In Line.

Current Price is $41.36. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $49.07, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

It's almost as if one can hear Citi analysts' sigh of relief that today's AGM update did not contain bad news. Instead, Reliance Worldwide's guidance was largely re-confirmed.

The one positive, Citi analysts comment, is this largely de-risks tomorrow's investor day. 2H tariff sensitivities could still be a potential topic, they surmise.

The re-confirmation of guidance amidst tough trading conditions is seen as a minor positive. Target $5. Buy.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $1.07
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32's Sep quarter update was mixed, Macquarie notes, with beats in alumina, aluminium and manganese while zinc missed. FY26 guidance is maintained.

Negotiations at Mozal stalled, with care & maintenance likely, while a Cannington sale was not confirmed but Macquarie suggests the portfolio could be cleansed ahead of new CEO.

After applying a recent gold price forecast increase, Macquarie lifts its target to $3.00 from $2.80. Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses South32's September quarter (1Q26) update as solid, with aluminium and copper volumes beating expectations and FY26 production guidance reaffirmed across all key commodities.

Mozal’s strong output offset weaker Brazilian volumes, while Sierra Gorda exceeded forecasts on higher gold and molybdenum recoveries.

Manganese production surged 88% q/q as Groote Eylandt recovered from Cyclone Megan, now running above guidance at 3.4Mtpa.

The company received US$503m in insurance payouts equating to 80% of cost recovery, and continues energy price talks with Mozambique government. The broker warns the risk of Mozal being placed in care and maintenance by March 2026 remains.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 5.4% on higher sales volume, but FY27 trimmed by -0.2%.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.74
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses South32's September quarter result as "clean," with better operational performance post the simplification of the portfolio.

Alumina achieved production at Worsley ahead of both UBS and consensus forecasts, with Alumar ahead, operating at nameplate capacity.

Regarding aluminium, Alumar production was weak due to a reduction in amperage, with Hillside production robust and Mozal 6% better than expected. Sierra Gorda production was up 12% on the prior quarter on higher copper grades, with Cannington weak on lower grades.

Cerro Matoso was 15% above consensus but down -3% q/q on lower grades. Net cash fell by -US$64m on -US$150m capex at Hermosa and around -US$100m in working capital.

The analyst believes the risk/reward for South32 has improved regarding its commodity mix, especially with aluminium and copper, along with silver and gold by-products. Neutral rated with a $3.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.24
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Morgans highlights the large wet weather impacts to Stanmore Resources' mine sites over 1H2025, with total rainfall between Jan–Apr nearly double the historical average for Moranbah. This has challenged the miner to achieve its production guidance for the year.

The analyst notes 3Q achieved robust results, and Stanmore has revised its saleable production for 2025 to 13.8–14.2mt from 13.8–14.4mt, with FOB guidance unchanged at $85–$90/t.

Post the transfer of analyst coverage, the new analyst has made several changes in modelling assumptions for earnings forecasts and now expects an EPS loss for 2025.

Buy rating retained. Target price lowered to $2.70 from $3.35

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.51
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Stanmore Resources recovered from a challenging weather-impacted 1H25 to post a 13% q/q rise in 3Q production to 3.6Mt, meeting expectations.

Sales volumes and realised prices, up 4% q/q, drove a cash build to US$190m, supporting robust liquidity. The broker reckons the company is on track to meet narrowed FY25 guidance of 13.8–14.2Mt, with 10.1Mt produced year-to-date.

Despite softer coal prices, the broker expects the company to deliver free cash flow (FCF) of US$60m in FY25 and maintain a 4% FCF yield in FY26.

Buy. Target unchanged at $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.41
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights the market has applauded ANZ Bank's ((ANZ)) new strategy, with the shares outperforming its peers by some 10% over the last month and circa 12% year-to-date.

Comparing the bank's strategy to that of peer Westpac, the analyst notes ANZ's is more a pragmatic, tech-based solution in redesigning the Plus front-end, which should be easier for investors to appreciate than the back-end Unite strategy of Westpac.

Westpac's strategy requires significant investment upfront, with productivity benefits from systems integration and processes expected from FY28 onwards.

Citi lifts its earnings forecasts for Westpac by around 2% each for FY26/FY27, and the target price is raised to $37.75 from $36.50.

The stock remains Neutral rated with a preference for ANZ.

Target price is $37.75 Current Price is $39.20 Difference: minus $1.45 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.27, suggesting downside of -15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights WiseTech Global has commenced the rollout of CargoWise value packs, with large global freight forwarder rollouts flagged as the major driver of 2H26 revenue growth.

The company is removing volume-based discounts as part of the new commercial model, which results in a larger price rise for the largest customers, while smaller customers' bills will not experience notable changes.

The analyst forecasts incremental revenue of US$20-25m from the transition to the new model.

New incentive payments and AI agents are also being implemented to boost adoption. The incentive payment will be treated as a marketing expense, while the development of the agentic AI aspect is on track, and the classification agent in ComplianceWise is noted as working well.

Citi envisages the inferred 1H26 revenue guidance as conservative. The company is set to meet the midpoint of FY26 CargoWise revenue guidance, based on the expected incremental revenue of US$25m from the new commercial model.

Buy rated with a $121.35 target.

Target price is $121.35 Current Price is $84.17 Difference: $37.18
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.99, suggesting upside of 47.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources