Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ACF as Add (1) -

Morgans makes only minor forecast changes for Acrow following a "good" trading update, with management's guidance for 1H25 and FY25 earnings (EBITDA) in line with the broker's forecasts.

Management advised that secured hire contract wins (a key leading indicator of future performance, according to the broker) increased 57% to $33.8m in the first four months of FY25.

The Add rating and $1.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.18
If ACF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Prior market concerns regarding earnings uncertainty for Acrow in FY25 have been alleviated, suggests Ord Minnett, following an AGM trading update and more detailed 1H and FY25 guidance.

Guidance for these periods for revenue and earnings beat the broker's prior forecasts by approximately 2% and 4%, respectively. The broker feels management is well placed to either meet or exceed its guidance.

Indicating further acceleration, the analysts note secured hire contract wins rose by 51% in 1Q25 and 57% in the four months to the end of October.

The target rises to $1.29 from $1.25. Buy.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.17
If ACF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ACF as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Acrow's management guided to higher-than-forecast revenue for FY25 at the AGM, while EBITDA was in line, the analyst notes.

The company also highlighted additional hire contracts for the four months ended 31 October, a rise of 57% on the previous corresponding period to $33.9m.

The analyst notes this is a continuation of the record 1Q25 performance. Management also pointed to a growing pipeline of opportunities at $198m at the end of October.

Shaw and Partners lifts FY25 EPS forecast by 1%. Buy rating. High risk. Target price $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.18
If ACF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Released today, Aristocrat Leisure's FY24 profit NPATA of $1,555m came in broadly in line with forecasts by Macquarie and consensus.

Supporting strong growth for FY25, the installed base for North America Gaming operations experienced net growth of 7,100 machines, well ahead of the consensus estimate, highlights the broker in an initial assessment of results.

No further buyback program was announced beyond the existing $350m, of which $258m remains, observes the analyst.

For FY25, management expects to deliver "NPATA growth." Design and development (D&D) guidance of 12-13% of revenue was within the broker's expectations.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $64.93 Difference: $2.07
If ALL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.25, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Boosting the revenue growth rate and margins going forward, highlights Morgan Stanley, Aristocrat Leisure has sold its RPG mobile games business Plarium for US$600m.

An additional contingent payment of up to US$200m may be received, subject to achievement of certain financial targets across 2025-28.

Proceeds will help fund the company's longer-term growth strategy, notes the broker.

Overweight rating. Target $67. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $64.93 Difference: $2.07
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.25, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

After tinkering with forecasts for ARB Corp, Ord Minnett raises its target to $47.15 from $47.00, though the primary focus of the broker's research is on positives from recent acquisitions.

The broker highlights the 50% stake in the combined Off Road Warehouse and 4 Wheel Parts businesses will be a key driver for sales and earnings in coming periods.

Overall, the analyst appreciates the material increase in distribution capabilities in the US and a strong pipeline of new products. Buy.

Target price is $47.15 Current Price is $41.64 Difference: $5.51
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.20, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Self-storage remains a relatively defensive, growing sub-sector with stable occupancy and continued rental growth, reiterates Citi after reviewing 1Q results for Abacus Storage King.

Management raised FY25 distribution guidance to 6.2cpu from 6.1cpu, noting 1Q trading conditions were robust with 91% occupancy in the established portfolio. Developments opened in FY24 also continue to lease up strongly and beat internal forecasts, notes the broker.

Target $1.40. Buy.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.2
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Abacus Storage King reported a "solid" 1Q25 trading update. Management raised FY25 guidance, with the broker's forecast funds from operations slightly above the new guidance.

The analyst highlights if September quarter momentum is maintained, there is potential for a further uplift in FY25 earnings.

Leasing take-up rates at the three new developments—Currumbin, Granville, and Brendale—are advancing at a faster than historical rate.

New Zealand remains the weakest market for the REIT. The balance sheet remains in good order at 28.9% gearing, with scope to expand to 31% by FY25 end from 4–5 acquisitions and capex on new stores.

Buy rating and $1.35 target price unchanged.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.15
If ASK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

While management at Aurizon Holdings has reconfirmed FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of between $1,660-1,740m, Citi remains Neutral rated given the strong growth required to achieve this targeted range.

Following the business update, the broker raises its 1H Coal/Network volume forecast, though Bulk volumes are tracking approximately -20% lower than the previous corresponding period.

Lower bauxite/alumina volumes and grain railings are behind the Bulk weakness, explain the analysts, though management expects a bounce for grain due to a strong WA harvest.

Neutral rating. Target price slips to $3.50 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.12
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes Aurizon Holdings' trading update revealed weaker iron ore volumes and a delay in the commencement of new projects, with coal in line with expectations. Weather risks remain.

Management pointed to softer 1H25 EBITDA, lower than the previous year, but guidance was maintained. Grain and reduced bauxite volumes have impacted results, with bulk suffering from a slow ramp-up in iron ore in WA and NT.

The broker highlights coal is on budget, with improvement in BHP volumes at Goonyella and softer volumes from Blackwater. Freight volumes are growing toward trend at around 110k units.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -4.3% in FY25 and lifts FY26 by 1.2% after accounting for weaker FY25 guidance and the slightly positive impact of the surprise $100m share buyback.

Target price slips to $3.57 from $3.60. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.57 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.19
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BKW as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter upgrades Brickworks to Buy from Hold. The analyst believes the stock's pullback offers a bottom-of-the-cycle entry point with potential for a valuation "uplift" based on the broker's in-house view of an interest rate pivot.

The first rate cut in Australia is expected in February 2025.

Assessing the earnings mix for Brickworks, the analyst highlights the valuation ascribed to its building materials business, excluding Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Co ((SOL)), is 7x EV/EBITDA versus a bottom-of-the-cycle 6.0x.

The analyst estimates a cash rate cut of -50bps equates to an EPS accretion between 3%-4%, as most of the company's earnings are generated from investment dividends and lower-yielding property.

The broker posits an underappreciated aspect of the company's valuation is "rent reversion" and property development.

Buy. Target price rises to $32 from $31.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $26.29 Difference: $5.71
If BKW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.63, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

It is Citi's initial observation CommBank's Q1 result has yet again beaten market consensus in the order of 2-2.5%, with better volume-related revenues and lower bad debts providing the fuel underneath the 'beat'.

The broker observes the net interest margin (NIM) looks broadly stable.

Momentum in key parts of the business looks a bit stronger than anticipated, according to the commentary.

Citi suggests today's update might well be received positively, but the share price has already run very hard beforehand. The latter suggests today's post-release weakness is not necessarily an indictment on the release itself.

The broker has decided to lift its forecasts by 1-4%, but retains its Sell rating on valuation.

Target price is $91.50 Current Price is $150.25 Difference: minus $58.75 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $101.14, suggesting downside of -32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

UBS observes, at first glance, CommBank reported 1Q25 net profit of $2.5bn, up 6.2% on the previous quarter and flat year-on-year.

Volume growth and higher portfolio earnings boosted net interest income by 2.3%, offset by some deposit pressures. Non-interest income rose 7.3% on the previous quarter due to higher markets and Treasury income, while opex remained flat.

The broker highlights wage inflation and increased investment spending continue to put pressure on costs.

UBS believes the results revealed positive trends around revenue and net interest margins, which rose 3bps above forecast. Asset quality remains intact, with strong franchise momentum across consumer and business banking divisions.

Funding for FY25 remains "sound," the analyst notes, and no update was provided on the $1bn buyback.

Sell rating and $110 target price retained.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $150.25 Difference: minus $40.25 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $101.14, suggesting downside of -32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CKF as Add (1) -

Looking ahead to 1H results for Collins Foods on December 3, Morgans suggests 2H margins should benefit from lower chicken prices, with feed costs down double digits over the last six months.

The broker believes the company is tracking towards the top end of 1H25 EBITDA margin guidance of 14.2-14.5% set in August.

Based on current trends evident in Yum! Brands' latest quarterly update, the analysts feel the worst is over for Collins Foods, noting the QSR segment rarely stays down for long.

The target rises to $10.50 from $8.70. Add rating retained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.51 Difference: $1.99
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.76, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CVW as Add (1) -

An unexpected negative claims hit of -$6.2m weighed on ClearView Wealth's 1Q AGM trading update, and Morgans now adopts a more conservative view on the NPAT margin profile into FY26.

Consequently, the broker's target falls to 58c from 81c, while the Add rating is kept given the stock is trading at approximately a -60% discount to Morgans' assessment of embedded value.

Management does not consider the elevated claims experience a long-term issue, noting claims in October had normalised, but Morgans prefers to wait and see whether the issue is a blip or a trend.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.24
If CVW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXC as Accumulate (2) -

In a "decent" outcome in the current transactional market, according to Ord Minnett, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT will divest seven assets for $32.8m, reflecting a modest discount to prior book values.

These sales were already reflected in management's unchanged FY25 guidance for funds from operations (FFO) and distributions of 20.6cpu, explains the analyst.

The broker's target rises to $3.11 from $3.01 on a lower debt forecast after allowing for the sale proceeds and a valuation roll-forward. Accumulate.

Target price is $3.11 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.12
If DXC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Citi has implemented a positive 'Catalyst Watch' for Fortescue given shares are down -31% in the last six months compared to falls for fellow iron ore miners BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) of only -3% and -8%, respectively.

The broker's Commodity team is now tactically bullish on iron ore for the short-term on further policy easing in China.

Target $19.40. Neutral.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $18.14 Difference: $1.26
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.26, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FPR as Buy (1) -

When FleetPartners Group reports FY24 results on November 18, Citi expects net operating income (NOI) and profit of $158m and $77m, respectively, broadly in line with consensus forecasts.

While the broker anticipates ongoing strength in End of Lease (EOL) income, Novated growth poses risks to the margin.

The analyst expects an approximately $28m buyback will be announced.

A Buy rating and $4.10 target price are retained.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $1.1
If FPR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Genesis Minerals reported "impressive" drilling results, notably at Gwalia underground, which support the pipeline of resource-to-reserve conversion, the analyst states, offering potential upside to the five-year plan.

The broker highlights a gold pour at Laverton, six months ahead of schedule.

Management retained guidance of 190-210koz at all-in-sustaining costs of $2,200-$2,400/oz. The company produced 36,020oz in 1Q25 and continues to guide toward increased production and lower costs for the balance of FY25.

Buy rating, high risk, with a $2.80 target price maintained.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.5
If GMD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HLO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes the ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for September bode well for Helloworld Travel, with total arrivals up 81.8% year-on-year.

Short-term arrivals rose 7.9%, and short-term returns advanced 8.7% year-on-year. Total departures rose 13%, with NZ, China, and the UK leading the country source arrivals, the broker notes.

Shaw and Partners makes no changes to earnings forecasts. The Buy rating, high risk classification and $3.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $1.58
If HLO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 46.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IFM as Buy (1) -

Infomedia lowered FY25 guidance, citing delays in DMS integration and changes in North American leadership.

Management reduced FY25 guidance by -1% to -3%, Shaw and Partners notes, due to lower revenue expectations, though margins remain stable compared to FY24.

The company is facing challenging market conditions, with FX changes failing to offset customer churn, the broker notes.

While "unfortunate," the guidance downgrade does not impact the analyst's investment case, as management remains confident in reaching the "Scale Phase" from FY26 onwards.

Target price $2.10. Buy rating (high risk) retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.8
If IFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 58.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the failure of Iluka Resources to secure additional capital for the funding of Eneabba Phase 3 has acted as an overhang on the stock, which has underperformed relative to underlying zircon and TiO2 feedstock prices.

The analyst estimates the market is ascribing a "nil" value to Eneabba Phase 3. Management has regularly highlighted the project will not proceed if the additional funding is not adequately shared between the company and Commonwealth government.

In the absence of funding, Iluka Resources has the option to monetise the stockpile, valued at $0.6bn, which could provide an estimated additional 35% accretion to EBITDA in 2025 and 23% in 2026, the broker emphasises.

Unchanged target of $7.10 and Outperform rating.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $1.7
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Given the relatively new whitelabelling of research from Barrenjoey, Ord Minnett 'initiates' coverage on Iluka Resources with a Buy rating and $6.30 target, which compares with the broker's prior Accumulate rating and $7.00 target.

The broker forecasts surpluses of the past two years in the mineral sands market will cease and tightness in zircon and high grade TiO2 feedstocks will endure until late in this decade.

Following a slide in mineral sands prices since late-2023, the current quarter will be the trough, in the broker's view, and prices should begin to lift in 2025.

The analysts' target price assumes the REO Refinery at Eneabba is developed. While a costly undertaking this has potential to unlock the enormous (1.4bn tonne) Wimmera Resource, highlights Ord Minnett.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $0.9
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Sell (5) -

Citi suggests Imdex requires a surge in exploration spending by major miners to meet the consensus forecast of $130m in earnings (EBITDA) for FY25, as junior miners continue to remain on the sidelines.

Even if there is an uplift in exploration budgets (expected over the next two months) for the majors, deployment timing will likely be skewed to 2H 2025, cautions the broker.

The Sell rating and $1.95 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting downside of -14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans increases its target for Imricor Medical Systems to $1.08 from 94c to reflect rising confidence in growth for the overall cardiac ablation segment and the positioning of the company's technology. The Speculative Buy rating is retained.

A number of major Medtech companies are increasing their investment in this segment, highlight the analysts.

The broker reminds investors Imricor is the only company capable of conducting cardiac ablations in an MRI, whereas current procedures are conducted using x-ray fluoroscopy.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.21
If IMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first take on James Hardie Industries' 2Q25 results shows EBIT above consensus, boosted by lower costs across APAC, corporate, and general administration, which are not viewed as the "key drivers" for earnings performance.

North America sales were lower than consensus due to reduced prices and volumes, with EBIT in line due to cost reductions. APAC volumes fell -10% year-on-year, but earnings were above consensus, aided by the Philippine shutdown and an improved earnings mix.

Europe was also weak, with sales below consensus by -4%, and margins down -200bps below expectations.

Management revised earnings guidance to the low end of the range due to caution around volumes and the FY26 outlook, which the broker notes is generally in line with peers.

Neutral rated. Target price $50.90.

Target price is $50.90 Current Price is $50.24 Difference: $0.66
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.81, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

In Macquarie's first take on 2Q results by James Hardie Industries, the broker highlights a stand-out performance in cost management. Profitability outcomes are now considered more secure, though the timing of market recovery remains the key uncertainty.

Profit of US$157m beat company guidance of US$135-155m and compared to forecasts by the broker and consensus of US$147.9m and US$145.7m, respectively.

The lower end of FY25 profit guidance is raised to US$635m from US$630m, while capex guidance is lowered to -US$420-440m from -US$500-550m previously, due to timing issues, explains the analyst.

Target $64.20. Outperform.

Target price is $64.20 Current Price is $50.24 Difference: $13.96
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.81, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, UBS highlights 2Q25 net profit for James Hardie Industries was better than expected, with FY25 guidance moved to the lower end, which the analyst believes is very positive as management is able to hold at this level.

UBS points to sequentially higher volumes expected for 3Q25 compared to 2Q25, with improved margin and profit guidance. Guidance for capex has been revised lower to -US$400m–US$420m from -US$500m–US$550m due to timing on Prattville.

Guidance for FY26 North American sales growth is lower than consensus expectations.

Buy rated with a $56.50 target price.

Target price is $56.50 Current Price is $50.24 Difference: $6.26
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.81, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Lindsay Australia highlighted at the AGM the first four months of FY25 trading showed volume growth in grocery and commercial sectors of 5% year-on-year.

Shaw and Partners expects volumes to continue rising throughout FY25 as Australian food sales rebound.

Buy rating (high risk). Unchanged target price of $1.20. No changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.25
If LAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LIC as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Bell Potter upgrades Lifestyle Communities to Hold from Sell following the AGM trading update and the underperformance of the stock relative to the XPJ REIT index.

Management highlighted adverse media and challenging Victorian market conditions have resulted in only 25 net new home sales year-to-date to 31 December 2024. 1H25 guidance for settlements is 120-130 versus the broker's forecast of 125. No FY25 guidance was offered.

The VCAT hearing decision remains a headwind, along with a decision on the replacement CEO and deferred management fees.

Bell Potter lowers EPS estimates by -5% and -11% for FY25/FY26 due to expected lower settlements and concerning below-trend sales rates.

Target price lifts to $8.90 from $8.20. Hold rated.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.75 Difference: $0.15
If LIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LIC as Neutral (3) -

So far in FY25, pre-sales settlements at Lifestyle Communities have risen year-on-year, yet Citi cautions that pressure is building on the FY25 consensus forecast.

Cancelation rates have normalised after negative media coverage, and settlements are running at 92, up from 64 during the same period in FY24, explains the broker.

Currently, there are 197 pre-sales versus the 211 required to meet FY25 consensus development volume expectations, note the analysts.

The $9.50 target remains unchanged. Neutral.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.75 Difference: $0.75
If LIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.96, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Arcadium Lithium's 3Q2024 results came in below expectations across revenue, EBITDA, and earnings. Cash flow was lower by -US$297m due to a rise in capital investment of US$288m.

Management withdrew 2024 guidance due to the Rio Tinto acquisition, which is targeted to close mid-2025.

The broker points to the -US$52m impairment charge for Mt Caitlin as the operation is transitioned to care and maintenance in 1H2025.

Macquarie lifts 2024 EPS estimates by 45% for the earnings update and adjustments to one-off costs. FY25 forecast EPS is cut by -4% due to higher finance costs.

Hold rating with an unchanged target price of $8.70.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $0.56
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.94, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Today, management at Mineral Resources announced operations at Bald Hill will move to care and maintenance effective immediately to preserve cash, leading to SC6 sales of 60kt for FY25, down from the previous range of 120-145kt.

In an initial assessment, the analyst highlights Bald Hill was not generating cash at a guided cost of $800-890/t (SC6 basis), which has possible implications for Wodgina and Mt Marion, which have similar or higher costs, respectively.

Worryingly, the broker notes suspension of those operations would impact consolidated services earnings and potentially debt serviceability.

In better news, placing Bald Hill on care and maintenance helps 50%-owned Wodgina and Mount Marion, according to Macquarie, as they are already operating below capacity.

Target $38. Neutral.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $37.66 Difference: $0.34
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.36, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

A -$10m operating loss in New Zealand resulted from a sharp spike in claims utilisation in 2H FY24, explains Citi, causing management at nib Holdings to lower FY25 underlying operating profit (UOP) guidance.

Management stated the negative impact in New Zealand is temporary, due to a combination of higher pricing, cost savings, and moderation in claims inflation.

The target falls to $6.45 from $6.35. Neutral.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $5.96 Difference: $0.49
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades nib Holdings to Underperform from Neutral.

The health insurer announced FY25 guidance of $235m-$250m, compared to consensus at $262m and the broker's forecast of $264m, as NZ is expected to generate a 1H25 loss of -$10m due to rising claims inflation.

Promotional activity remains at an all-time high for the first four months of FY25, the analyst states, and the history of re-pricing shows the rate is usually lower by -60bps in the lead-up to a federal election.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -18.2% and -12.5% for FY25/FY26 due to increased claims inflation. The target price falls to $5.45 from $6.30.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.96 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

The midpoint of nib Holdings' FY25 operating profit guidance of $235-250m missed forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by -2% and -5%, respectively.

The broker notes a weak New Zealand performance, with management expecting a -$10m 1H25 operating loss, while the Australian ARHI division performed in line with or better than expected.

Target $6.40. Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.96 Difference: $0.44
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers its target for Paladin Energy to $11.50 from $14.60 after management revealed variability in stockpiled ore and disruptions to water supply from the Namibia Water Corporation. The Buy rating is maintained.

The target also fell due to U3O8 price downgrades (though the broker remains bullish in the long term) and after a 90% risk rating was applied to Citi's Langer Heinrich valuation to reflect ramp-up uncertainty.

Management lowered FY25 production guidance to 3.0-3.6mlb from 4.0-4.5mlb and withdrew all other guidance related to FY25.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $4.62
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.50, suggesting upside of 81.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

October production for Paladin Energy was negatively impacted by grades and disruptions to water supply, explains Morgan Stanley, and management noted ongoing challenges with operational variability.

The broker remains at the upper end of new guidance for 3-3.6Mlb, down from 4-4.5Mlb, having already anticipated risk to FY25 guidance, along with consensus.

The analysts feel the negative share price reaction on the day was overstated, especially as management highlighted the short-term nature of the setback, with nameplate capacity of 6Mlbpa expected by the end of 2025.

Overweight. Target $12.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $5.42
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.50, suggesting upside of 81.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy reported a downgrade in production guidance for FY25 to 3mlb–3.6mlb from 4mlb–4.5mlb and has withdrawn other guidance.

Shaw and Partners highlights unit costs are dependent on volumes, and management will have a better understanding of the situation in 2H25.

The analyst does not believe the update should have been a surprise, as management had already flagged the issues at the 1Q25 update.

Shaw and Partners lowers expected production to 3.3mlb and reduces the FY25 EBITDA forecast by -28% to US$95m.

Paladin Energy remains the preferred uranium exposure. Target price moves to $15.80 from $16 with a Buy rating. High risk.

The analyst believes the market overreacted to the update.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $8.92
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.50, suggesting upside of 81.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PRN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Perenti with a Buy rating and a $1.47 target price.

The analyst believes the stock offers value at under 6x FY25 price-to-earnings with high cash flow generation at 17% of market capitalisation in FY24, a 6% dividend yield, and a discount to NTA of $1.26.

Perenti is a contractor for underground and surface mines in Australia and Africa, accounting for 90% of revenues, with 62% exposure to gold and 13% to copper. The analyst believes the company is and will continue to benefit from the strong gold price.

The contractor benefits from relatively long-term projects, but the balance sheet is capital-heavy, funded by debt. Revenue growth of 15% p.a. over the last five years has been achieved.

Buy rated with a $1.47 target price.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.28
If PRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Same store sales (SSS) for competitor Home Depot in the US largely matched recent management commentary by Reliance Worldwide, notes Citi.

Due to restricted access to home equity in the US, participants in the repair and remodel (R&R) market continue to act cautiously, observes the broker.

Buy and $5.85 target retained for Reliance Worldwide.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.20 Difference: $0.65
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Sheffield Resources with a Hold rating and sets an 8c target price.

The company owns 50% of KMS, the operating entity for the Thunderbird mine, which began production in October 2023 and is facing technical difficulties in ramp-up, explain the analysts.

Despite some support from 50% joint venture partner Yansteel, Ord Minnett highlights significant uncertainty arising from the need for additional funds and a debt restructure.

The broker forecasts that surpluses in the mineral sands market over the past two years will cease, with tightness in zircon and high-grade TiO2 feedstocks expected to endure until late in the decade.

Following a slide in mineral sands prices since late 2023, the current quarter is viewed by the broker as the trough, with prices expected to begin lifting in 2025.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Citi's takeaway from Sims' AGM trading update showed ongoing strength in the US business. Management currently anticipates EBIT for Metals businesses in 2Q25 to be in line with 1Q25.

Trading across the metal businesses has remained robust despite a challenging market backdrop, particularly in A&NZ.

The broker's 1H25 EBIT estimate at $86m compares to consensus at $72m, with the latest update on US prime scrap prices rising to US$401/t from US$391/t in the last four weeks and a discount to Brazilian pig iron of -US$31/t.

Buy rated with a $13 target price.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.09, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SLH as Hold (3) -

Shaw and Partners notes Silk Logistics has entered into a Scheme of Arrangement for DP World Australia to acquire 100% of the issued capital at $2.14 per share, which is a 45.6% premium to the 8 November closing share price.

The board unanimously recommends shareholders vote in favour of the scheme.

Hold rating, high risk, and $2.10 target price retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.03
If SLH meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WOW as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Woolworths Group with a Hold rating and a $31.75 target price.

The broker forecasts compound growth of 4.1% in revenue and compound net profit growth of 5.2% p.a. from FY25 to FY27.

Bell Potter's forecasts are based on expected returns of around $1.5bn on capital investments in automated distribution centres and customer fulfillment centres, growth in revenue from digital marketing, and a recovery in consumer spending, although cost-of-doing-business and margin pressures are expected in FY25.

The broker's Hold rating is based on near-term headwinds from the company's greater exposure to discretionary items.

Target price is $31.75 Current Price is $29.57 Difference: $2.18
If WOW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.01, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

App and web visits data point to strong subscription growth in the UK for Xero, driven by increased online promotions (for example -90% off for six months) and performance marketing spend, explains Citi.

For tomorrow's 1H results, the broker forecasts ARPU growth of 14% year-on-year, up from 10% in the prior half, reflecting Partner Edition price increases and an earlier Business Edition price increase in Australia.

Citi raises its target for Xero to $185 from $158.20 on minor changes to earnings forecasts and a valuation roll-forward. Buy maintained.

Target price is $185.00 Current Price is $161.14 Difference: $23.86
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $169.75, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources