Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates AAR as Buy (1) -

Astral Resources announced it has put in place a Land Use Agreement at its Feysville Gold Project with the Marlinyu Ghoorlie Native Title Claim Group. Tenements include M26/846 and L26/295, which cover the Think Big deposit within Feysville.

Shaw and Partners notes the agreement facilitates the grant of a mining lease over Think Big, and Astral has signed a letter of intent with Mineral Mining Services for development/JV for the project.

Buy, High-risk rating retained. Target stays at 45c.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.225
If AAR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on November 3. ANZ Bank is due to report on 10, with Citi forecasting FY25 cash net profit after tax of $6.356bn, with basic cash EPS of 214c and DPS of 166c.

The analyst's EPS estimate sits -1% below consensus due to one-off costs and ASIC settlement costs not being fully accounted for by consensus.

While acknowledging valuations for the banks are high, the broker prefers Westpac and ANZ.

No change to Neutral rating and $37.00 target price.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $36.64 Difference: $0.36
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.95, suggesting downside of -10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi came away from Amotiv's AGM, retaining its Buy-rated view in the context of an anticipated recovery in the auto market.

Management was measured in its commentary and did not expand on the recent September strength, notable in the 4x4 segment. The analyst views further interest rate reductions as a catalyst to help demand, noting the Australian September quarter CPI print as important.

Citi expects three more -25bps rate cuts to come in NZ.

OEMs are investing more in plug-in hybrid vehicles than EVs, which is a positive for Amotiv, as the former is more serviceable due to the inclusion of both ICE and battery power.

The stock remains Buy-rated with a $12.56 target price.

Target price is $12.56 Current Price is $8.93 Difference: $3.63
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Sell (5) -

Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on Nov 3. Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is due to report its 1Q26 trading update on November 11.

There are no consensus quarterly earnings estimates available. Citi's 1H26 cash earnings forecast are in line with consensus.

No change to Sell rating and $11 target price.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.58 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.35, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi lifts its target price on BHP Group to $47 from $43 following an update for September quarter production results and a new earnings model for the simplified group portfolio.

The analyst liked the copper production update from Escondida, with ongoing mining in better-grade areas. FY26 guidance at 0.85% copper grade looks conservative to the analyst, with the September quarter at 0.94%, and ongoing upside risks noted into 2H26.

Jansen is tracking on schedule for phase-1 commissioning in FY26.

Citi highlights that risks remain around news flow on iron ore negotiations with China. A Neutral rating is reiterated.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $43.24 Difference: $3.76
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.48, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on November 3. CommBank due to report its 1Q26 trading update on November 11.

There are no consensus quarterly earnings estimates available. Citi's 1H26 cash earnings forecast sits -1.6% below consensus due to lower net interest income and other operating income.

No change to Sell rating and $130 target price.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $170.37 Difference: minus $40.37 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting downside of -30.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

Coles Group is due to announce 1Q26 sales on October 30, with UBS forecasting a rise of 3.7% y/y to $10.9bn, with consensus at $10.9bn, up 3.2%.

The analyst expects a moderation in sales from supermarkets from the first seven weeks, but Coles is expected to continue to perform better than Woolworths Group ((WOW)).

UBS estimates total supermarket sales up 4.7% y/y at $10bn, including online sales of $1.2bn, up 19% y/y. Total liquor sales are forecast at $855m, up 0.5% y/y, which is slightly higher than the market.

Buy rating retained with a $25 target price.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.75 Difference: $2.25
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.91, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

Corporate Travel Management's first quarter update showed strong momentum, according to UBS. New business wins of $1.72bn in FY25 and $0.43bn in 1Q26 are already tracking ahead of FY26 forecasts, highlight the analysts.

Revenue rose 6% year-on-year to $180m, while earnings (EBITDA) increased 29% to $40.9m, lifting margins by 400bps to 23% on improved operating leverage, observes UBS.

Europe led performance, North America continued to recover, while Asia remained affected by tariff uncertainty, explains the broker.

UBS estimates FY26 earnings (EBITDA) of around $215m versus $200m consensus and retains a Neutral rating with a $16.70 target price.

Target price is $16.70

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Endeavour Group is due to report its 1Q26 sales on October 31, with UBS forecasting growth of 0.6% y/y to total sales of $3.12bn.

Retail sales are estimated down -0.3% y/y to $2.5bn, which sits slightly above the market, and like-for-like sales down -0.5%.

Hotel sales are forecast to grow 4.2% y/y to $591m, slightly below the market, with gaming underpinning the growth.

The stock remains Neutral rated with an unchanged target price of $4.25.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.62
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELS as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiated coverage of Elsight with a Buy rating and target price of $1.90.

The company supplies advanced communication modules for unmanned systems via its Halo platform, enabling secure BVLOS (Beyond Visual Line of Sight) operations.

FY25 has been a transformational year with repeat defence orders validating its technology. The broker expects US and EU budget allocations to drive near-term contract awards.

Bell Potter is forecasting a 35.9% compounded annual growth rate for EPS in FY25-28, driven by global defence spend, expanded S&M investment, regulatory tailwinds, and rising recurring revenue.

Comparisons are made with Electro Optic Systems ((EOS)) and DroneShield ((DRO)). The broker acknowledges several caveats but sees Elsight as attractively valued at 12.8x FY26 EV/EBIT vs Electro at 33.8x and DroneShield at 65.2x.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.645
If ELS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Apparently, the food at EVT Ltd's AGM was "awesome" as usual, according to Citi, with the company also outlining a more upbeat earnings outlook.

The sale of the cinema business is not considered imminent, given weakness in the Australian box office and ongoing disruptions to content supply. The sale of 525 George Street, Sydney, will only take place at the correct price, which Citi views as sensible.

Hotels via Connect could have more earnings upside if the group can grow organically and beyond acquisition, although industry feedback makes the analyst more circumspect.

Citi raises its EPS estimates by 7% for FY26 and 9% for FY27 due to better hotel earnings and German cinema, offset by weather-impacted Thredbo and some property sales.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $17.30 from $16.50.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $14.22 Difference: $3.08
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.46, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVT as Overweight (1) -

EVT Ltd’s first quarter result beat expectations, reinforcing Morgan Stanley’s positive outlook.

Earnings (EBITDA) rose 21% year-on-year to $62m, with all divisions growing and Pro-invest acquisition securing approval.

Entertainment earnings climbed 53% to $12m on strong German and New Zealand performances, highlights the broker, while hotels posted a record $24.3m result.

The broker expects cinema admissions at 70% of pre-covid levels to generate full pre-covid earnings and anticipates medium-term upside from new hotel projects.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $18 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.22 Difference: $3.78
If EVT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.46, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp delivered EUR4.9m free cash flow LTM (last 12 months) to September, a EUR14.6m y/y improvement, showing strong cash momentum, Macquarie notes.

Cash ended at EUR32.6m, slightly lower due to seasonal investing outflows. The broker sees the company's outlook as attractive due to the strong North American pipeline.

A major North American client will migrate to the FINEOS Absence and Claims platform, with go-live expected in 2H26.

FY25 guidance was reaffirmed for EUR138-143m revenue with positive FCF expected, marking a full turnaround from prior negative cash flow, the broker highlights.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $3.48.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.6
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Fortescue's September quarter (1Q26) update fell slightly short of Bell Potter's forecasts, but the broker still assesses it as a good start to FY26, given it is not a seasonally strong quarter.

The company shipped 49.7Mt of iron ore in 1Q26 at C1 costs of US$18.17/wmt, slightly below forecasts due to seasonally lower production. Output fell -10% qoq, tracking the lower end of FY26 guidance, while costs rose 12% q/q from reduced volumes.

The broker notes the Blacksmith acquisition underpins a revised hematite life-of-mine (LOM) plan, adding 243Mt @ 59.3% Fe to the resource base. Blending Blacksmith with Solomon Hub deposits will extend mine life and support a blended 55% Fe product from FY27.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 7% and FY27 by 8%.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell. Target rises to $19.30 from $17.05 on revised LOM plan and higher iron price forecasts.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $20.52 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.37, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Goodman Group’s planned European data centre joint venture could unlock up to $1.3bn in earnings (EBITDA) on establishment.

The broker notes the 445MW/282MW IT (information technology load capacity) development spanning Amsterdam, Frankfurt, and Paris, may yield an internal rate of return (IRR) above 20%. Goodman is contributing less than -$1bn for its 50% stake.

The analysts see potential to crystallise profits equivalent to a full year’s development earnings, either boosting FY26 profit or spread over two to three years.

Total project cost is estimated at around -$7bn, implying to the analysts an end value near $11.1bn and development upside of around $2bn.

Overweight. Target $41.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $34.03 Difference: $7.47
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.97, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Overweight (1) -

GPT Group has agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Sydney’s Grosvenor Place for -$860m.

Morgan Stanley views the move as a strategic reweighting toward the core CBD, where vacancy levels sit below the city average, noting the REIT's current limited exposure via its 50% holding in Australia Square.

The new asset’s 30% vacancy means the acquisition is near break-even on settlement, highlight the analysts, with funding costs of around -$45m and net operating income of around $42m at a 7% capitalisation rate.

If fully leased, the broker believes earnings could rise to around $60m annually, making the deal around 2% funds from operations (FFO) accretive by 2026.

Morgan Stanley estimates gearing will lift to 32.5% post-settlement.

Overweight. Target price $6.00. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.39
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Hold (3) -

GPT Group has acquired a 50% stake in Grosvenor Place Office Tower for $860m from Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation, which retains a 50% stake, at a 6% cap rate, Ord Minnett estimates.

The analyst believes GPT has paid "top dollar" for the building due to the 30% vacancy rate, with average lease terms under 4 years, alongside estimated rent incentives of around $290m. Capex and leasing costs will be needed over the next three years.

Post the transaction, Grosvenor Place will represent around 20% of the group's office assets and circa 6% of its overall portfolio.

No change in Hold rating and target price of $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Buy (1) -

Citi again highlights the change of sentiment towards Imdex, boosted by high raisings levels from juniors and good exploration metrics and projects. The company is seen in a good position to capitalise on the positive macro backdrop.

Imdex also announced a good 1Q26 trading update, including top-line growth of 10% on the prior year due to growth in instrumentation and its digital stake, Krux and Datarock.

The remaining 60% stake in Krux is due to be acquired by April 2026, and the remaining 49% in Datarock by February 2026, and both are likely to be cash-funded for less than $84m.

Buy rated with a $4.20 target.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.65
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KGL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans retains a Speculative Buy rating on KGL Resources with a lower price target of 30c from 40c.

KGL completed a feasibility study into the $326m development of the Jervois copper-gold project to generate 39,000tpy of copper concentrate and potentially offer satellite feed to Glencore's Mt Isa copper smelter.

The analyst notes Resource Capital Fund (US$2.2bn in assets) has an 8.3% stake in KGL, with Indonesia's Salim Group holding a 37% stake as of June 2024.

The Jervois copper project has expected peak costs, including development, of $497m.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.135
If KGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

UBS has a Neutral rating and $5.25 target price on Medibank Private.

The company is hosting Investor Day on October 29.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $0.48
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on November 3. Macquarie Group reports 1H26 earnings on November 7, with Citi forecasting 1H26 cash net profit after tax of $1.877bn, with basic cash EPS of 495c and DPS of 280c.

The analyst's EPS estimates are in line with consensus but vary across the segments. Macquarie Asset Management is -15% below consensus but 7% higher for MacCap, and Commodities and Global Markets. The result remains dependent on the timing of realisations.

While acknowledging valuations for the banks are high, the broker prefers Westpac and ANZ Bank.

No change to Neutral rating and $200 target price.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $225.00 Difference: minus $25 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $225.77, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Total Medicare IVF cycles rose 1.2% y/y in September on an adjusted data basis and were up 6.1% an absolute basis. Fresh cycles fell -3.8% y/y but were offset by frozen, up 7.9%.

Macquarie notes 1Q26 cycles were up 1.2%, and up 1.4% on an absolute basis. The key Victoria market for Monash IVF recovered in September with fresh cycles rising 3.5% y/y, lagging NSW and WA, which saw a tougher month.

Circa 225k tests have been performed since the introduction of genetic testing to the Medicare Benefits Scheme in Nov 2023, with a percentage expected to translate to IVF cycles. This is expected to underpin "significant incremental IVF cycles in upcoming years".

No change in Outperform rating or $1 target price.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.28
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.92, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MYG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiated coverage of Mayfield Group with a Buy rating and target price of $2.

The company supplies electrical and communications infrastructure equipment and services to sectors including data centres, renewables, defence, and utilities, with manufacturing bases in Adelaide and Perth.

The broker notes the current Work-in-Hand of $115m (up from $85m in FY24) provides strong earnings visibility through FY27. Pipeline of $850m points to potential for near-term earnings upgrades, if converted, the broker adds.

The company completed the BE Switchcraft acquisition last month, and the broker notes it is EPS-accretive and broadens market reach, with early integration benefits emerging.

A net cash position of $14.6m and rising free cash flow enable ongoing acquisitions and higher shareholder returns.

The broker's investment thesis is also supported by an undemanding 17.0x FY26 PE with strong EPS and ROIC potential.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.26
If MYG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on November 3. National Australia Bank is due to report FY26 results on November 6, with Citi forecasting FY25 cash net profit after tax of $7.107bn, with basic cash EPS of 232c and DPS of 170c.

The analyst's EPS estimate sits -1% below consensus due to higher BDD expense assumptions 

While acknowledging valuations for the banks are high, the broker prefers Westpac and ANZ Bank.

National Australia Bank remains Sell-rated with $36 target price.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $43.25 Difference: minus $7.25 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.54, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Newmont Corp reported 3Q2025 earnings (EBITDA) of US$3.3bn, which was 14% above Citi's forecast due to more robust production and lower costs.

Management also offered preliminary 2026 guidance for managed operations within the 2025 guidance range of 4.2moz, plus or minus 5%, but towards the lower end, the analyst explains. This infers 4-4.2moz versus Citi's forecast of 4.1moz.

Free cash flow was very strong again at US$1.6bn, with around US$0.5bn on buybacks and net debt near zero.

No change to Buy rating and $160 target price.

Citi transfers coverage of the stock to Alexander Hacking.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $127.15 Difference: $32.85
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $150.20, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Neutral (3) -

Newmont Corp's quarterly performance (released on Friday) proved better-than-expected with cost containment in particular a positive surprise, commentary by Macquarie suggests.

Management guiding for a flat Q4 performance and thereby sticking to 2025 production guidance is seen as another positive.

The net profit 'beat' was assisted by asset sales.  The company has deferred some capex into 2026 and guidance for next year is slightly below Macquarie's forecast.

Net debt of US$12m was smaller than expected (read: better), also because asset sales had generated some US$300m more than anticipated.

The dividend proved another positive and the share buyback continues. Macquarie has a Neutral rating in combination with price targets of $153 and US$100 (both unchanged).

Target price is $153.00 Current Price is $127.15 Difference: $25.85
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $150.20, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NEM as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans continues to rate Newmont Corp as an Accumulate with a lift in target price to $148 from $146, post the miner's 3Q25 quarterly result.

Gold production of 1.42moz was a slight miss on the analyst and consensus estimates by -1%, with all-in-sustaining costs of US$1,566/oz, which was above consensus by 7% and below Morgans' by -2%.

Management has pointed to 2026 guidance for production in line with the 2025 guidance range, although slightly at the lower end due to mine sequencing.

While the market seems disappointed by the 2026 guidance, the broker is not worried, as the change in sequence is aimed at achieving higher volumes and lower costs, going forward.

Target price is $148.00 Current Price is $127.15 Difference: $20.85
If NEM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $150.20, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett explains Newmont Corp's September quarter across unit costs, operating earnings and net debt were better than expected but gold output was slightly below consensus estimates. 2025 guidance was retained.

With no formal guidance for 2026 offered, the analyst infers production could be lower than 2025. The broker now expects 2026 production -2% lower at 5.5.moz, which it reckons will result in some slight consensus downgrades.

The broker lowers its EPS estimates by -2.4% for 2025 and -1.1% for 2026. Buy rating is reiterated with an unchanged $150 target price.

Ord Minnett believes the miner is progressing the performance of its assets, which should underpin a rise in production to 6moz by 2027.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $127.15 Difference: $22.85
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $150.20, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the resilience of National Storage REIT's September quarter performance. While like-for-like advertised rates fell -0.6% following a -0.5% decline in the prior quarter, September marked the best monthly gain since March.

Occupancy rose 70bps to 81.5%, and rate growth of 0.5% lifted revenue per available metre (RevPAM) 1.4%, supported by increased marketing spend and improved customer activity, explain the analysts.

Retaining its Buy rating and $2.57 target price, UBS highlights the stock trades at a -7% discount to net tangible assets (NTA), despite sector peers trading at a 12% premium.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.14
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.58, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NST as Buy (1) -

Northern Star Resources produced 383koz gold in 1Q26, down -12% q/q and below Bell Potter's forecast of 407koz, and sold 381koz, missing the broker's 421koz estimate.

A welcome surprise was cost (AISC), which rose 15% q/q to $2,522/oz but was below the consensus of $2,715/oz estimate, though higher vs the broker.

Two site incidents at Jundee and South Kalgoorlie are expected to weigh on 2Q output, but the company expects to recover this over 2HFY26.

To meet FY26 group guidance (1.7–1.8Moz), the broker estimates KCGM milled grades must rise to 1.7g/t from 1.4g/t over 2H26. 

In other updates, the KCGM mill expansion remains on track for commissioning in early FY27, with construction entering its final phase over the next nine months.

FY26 net profit forecast lifted by 7% and FY27 by 17% on a higher gold price outlook. Buy. Target unchanged at $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $23.70 Difference: $6.3
If NST meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects Paladin Energy's production issues with Langer Heinrich to be resolved in FY26. 

The broker sees growth potential also from Patterson Lake South, with production expected in 2031, transforming the company into a sizeable uranium player.

Overweight. Target price $10.40.Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.40 Difference: $2
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.84, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PLS as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter notes Pilbara Minerals delivered a strong September quarter (1Q26) with 225kt spodumene production vs its forecast of 215kt and record 78% recoveries (72% in 4Q25). It drove unit costs down -13% q/q to $540/t.

The company is focusing on cost reduction and cash preservation amid weak lithium prices, while advancing growth projects across Brazil, Pilgangoora, and its POSCO JV. FY26 guidance was maintained.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast to 1.2c from -0.4c, and FY27 by 4%. 

Target rises to $2.65 from $2.10. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold on strong share price gains.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Pilbara Minerals reported what Citi describes as another robust quarterly update, with production of 225koz, 6% better than consensus due to record recoveries of 78%, a rise of 9% on the prior quarter.

Unit operating cost fell -13% to FOB $540/t, beating consensus by 6%, with realised pricing of US$742/t. Cash stood at $852m, down -$122m on the June quarter, with a loss of -$40m still generated after working capital adjustments.

The analyst brought Ngungaju back into forecasts for base case earnings estimates in FY29 when price forecasts are sustained for three quarters above US$1,200 SC6 (spodumene concentrate with a lithium oxide (Li2O) content of approximately 6%).

Citi lifts its earnings forecast by 3cps in FY28 and around 2cps into perpetuity, leading to a rise in the target price to $3.25 from $2.20. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.02
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie assesses Pilbara Minerals' 1Q26 update as a strong beat, with production up 6% vs the consensus and cash costs -5% below the market expectations.

Production of 225kt and record 78.2% recovery reflect continued efficiency gains from the Pilgan plant optimisation, supporting future output and cost improvements, the broker highlights.

The POSCO JV remains challenged, operating below capacity and reducing offtake to 150kt amid weak margins.

Despite improved lithium demand sentiment, the broker reckons the near-term upside appears priced in, with shares implying US$1,200/t spodumene.

EPS forecast for FY26 upgraded by 22% and by 44% for FY27. Target rises to $3.00 from $2.75.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Pilbara Minerals' 1Q performance was broadly steady, according to Morgan Stanley, with all FY26 guidance unchanged. Strong mining rates are noted, around 45-50% above consensus forecasts, reflecting ramp-up progress under the owner-operator model.

Spodumene production was in line with the broker's estimate despite softer processing volumes, supported by higher recoveries of 78.2% compared with 71.6% in the prior quarter.

Costs were better than broker and consensus expectations by 75 and 8%, respectively, though are expected to rise across FY26, as wet-season and optimisation effects emerge but remain within guidance.

Target $2.85. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Morgans assesses Pilbara Minerals September quarter (1Q26) update as strong, beating on production, up 6% vs the consensus. Revenue was up 30% q/q, with 78% recoveries exceeding design levels.

Unit cost of $540/t and solid liquidity of $1.48bn underline strong operations, in the broker's view. 

The broker notes the POSCO JV cut 2026 offtake to 150kt from 315kt amid weaker US hydroxide demand due to tariffs and IRA-linked orders

The company continues to work with the government on the Australia-US critical minerals framework, advocating shared infrastructure over price floors.

Target rises to $2.80 from $2.30. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold on stretched valuation.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett notes Pilbara Minerals' September quarter report was above consensus expectations, with 9% higher lithium recoveries at the Pilgan plant at its Pilgangoora project. Unit operating costs fell -13% q/q, boosted by a 20% q/q rise in realised prices.

Management reconfirmed FY26 production guidance, with unit costs retained despite the better-than-expected September quarter result.

The broker lifts its FY26 EPS estimate by 89.8% due to the lower starting base, and the FY27 forecast is tweaked lower by -0.2%.

No change to Sell rating and $1.35 target price.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -20.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals’ September quarter output and cost performance exceeded UBS expectations.

Production of around 225kt spodumene concentrate (SC) surpassed the consensus forecasts of around 215kt, with recoveries improving 9% q/q and free-on-board (FOB) unit costs falling -11%.

Higher realised prices of US$742/t SC5.3 and stable operations supported margins, while cash fell to $852m due to working capital and capital expenditure outflows.

UBS forecasts FY26 production at 880kt, above the 845kt FY26 guidance midpoint.

UBS raises its target price 7% to $2.40 and retains a Sell rating on a lack of valuation support.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

PMET Resources released its Feasibility Study for the Shaakichiuwaanaan lithium project, outlining an after-tax NPV8 of CA$1.59bn at US$1,221/t spodumene (SC5.5).

Macquarie notes the plan is for a  DMS (dense media separation)-only operation producing 800ktpa SC5.5 at steady state. 

Initial capex rose 19% to CA$1.51bn due to added infrastructure and inflation, while opex (CA$729/t) and AISC (CA$800/t) remained in line with earlier studies.

Final Investment Decision (FID) is targeted for 2H2027, with permitting and potential offtake or funding partnerships advancing.

Outperform maintained. Target trimmed to 45c from 50c on higher capital cost assumptions.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.05
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.70, suggesting upside of 75.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie believes Jetstar remains Qantas Airways' key growth driver domestically and internationally, supported by the redeployment of JSA (Jetstar Asia) aircraft.

Project Sunrise boosts productivity, cutting London service requirements from three to two aircraft, delivering major efficiency gains.

The broker notes domestic demand is solid with moderate capacity growth (5-6%) and strong load factors, while international load factors are softer, especially on US routes.

Lower fuel prices are offset by higher crack spreads, creating a neutral FY26 net impact. The broker revised its forecasting approach to divisional operating costs rather than group costs, resulting in a -1.5% cut to FY26 earnings forecast and a 3.5% rise to FY27.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $12.29 from $12.00.

Target price is $12.29 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $1.78
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.00, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32 reported a solid September quarter update with FY26 guidance unchanged across all the miner’s operations.

Citi notes Australian manganese volumes were 18% better than consensus as operations ramped up post-Cyclone Megan.

Management also retained FY26 capex and opex guidance, while net cash slipped by -US$59m to US$64m on the prior quarter.

Some US$160m was invested into Hermosa, and the US government agreed to acquire an initial 10% in Trilogy Metals, with the Ambler project the main asset. The news raised the value of South32's 50% JV partner in Ambler Metals to US$530m from US$180m on October 8.

Citi's revised copper price forecast results in a rise in its EPS estimate to 8cps from 3cps for FY26. The FY27 EPS forecast has been lowered by -13%. No change to Neutral rating. Target unchanged at $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes South32 has the potential to be a significant cash flow generator, along with the potential to grow production via the Hermosa project in the US.

Overweight. Target price $3.45. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.21
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.48, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SNL as Buy (1) -

Supply Network's trading update at its AGM confirmed the company is in line to achieve its additional FY26 sales target of around $50m, according to Ord Minnett. This would bring FY26 sales up 13% to $398.8m, meeting the analyst's estimate.

The AGM was held one month earlier than usual, which is a reason why 1H26 net profit after tax guidance was not announced.

The company continues to invest in its branch network, hiring more staff and upgrading its technology.

Ord Minnett lowers its earnings forecasts by -1% to -2% over the next three years due to the ongoing rise in investment.

Target price is lowered to $40.20 from $41.50. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $40.20 Current Price is $36.93 Difference: $3.27
If SNL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its Treasury Wine Estates earnings model and the possible changes with the new CEO coming on board. This resulted in the broker lowering its EPS forecasts by -12.6% for FY26 and -2.6% for FY27.

The target price is also lowered to $6.50 from $8, with no change in Hold rating.

Treasury Wine continues to struggle with too much US inventory, and the analyst estimates a revenue decline in the segment of -$150m at a margin of 55% as stock is depleted from sales channels.

China experienced weak volume during the mid-autumn festival, and there is an absence of earn-out payments on its Daou acquisition in FY23.

The analyst expects the new CEO, Fischer, will also need to reduce the vintner's grape intake, given inventory at $2.5bn, including $1.5bn in luxury.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.23 Difference: $0.27
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Earnings season for banks starts with Westpac on November 3, with Citi forecasting FY25 cash net profit after tax of $6.807bn, with basic cash EPS of 199c and DPS of 152c.

The analyst's EPS estimate sits -3.6% below consensus due to lower BDD expense assumptions and restructuring costs of -$273m, which consensus is not fully including, in Citi's view.

While acknowledging valuations for the banks are high, the broker prefers Westpac and ANZ Bank ANZ.

No change to Neutral rating and $37.75 target price.

Target price is $37.75 Current Price is $38.87 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.27, suggesting downside of -14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Whitehaven Coal reported run-of-mine production of 9.0Mt in 1Q26 and saleable output of 7.3Mt, both below expectations due to adverse weather in NSW and QLD, Bell Potter notes.

Flooding at Maules Creek and in-pit water at Blackwater disrupted operations. Net debt rose to $0.8bn from 0.6bn at end-FY25, with FY26 guidance reaffirmed and production expected to be 2H-weighted as volumes recover.

The company expects met coal prices (US$190/t) to remain subdued through FY26, though the broker reckons potential Chinese steel and coal supply cuts could offer upside.

The broker highlights the company continues to generate positive EBITDA despite the subdued coal price environment and is targeting $60–80m in annualised cost savings by end-FY26.

EPS forecast for FY26 cut by -21% but FY27 lifted by 1%.

Hold retained. Target rises to $7.00 from $6.80.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $0.02
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie considers Whitehaven Coal's September quarter (1Q26) update as a resilient one, given it was delivered under wet weather circumstances in both NSW and Queensland.

Coal production was broadly in line and sales were a 3% beat vs the consensus. Production guidance was maintained, reflecting solid performance given weather impacts.

A disappointment to the broker was realised prices in Queensland, which were -10% below consensus and -6% below the broker's forecast, driven by higher product discounts.

The broker highlights the company is engaging investors to refinance debt by the end of FY26, viewing it as a key catalyst to lower funding costs.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -38%. Target trimmed to $7.00 from $7.25. Neutral retained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $0.02
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Whitehaven Coal’s September quarter update was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley’s expectations, with FY26 guidance unchanged across all metrics.

Total run-of-mine (ROM) production of 9mt was around -2% to -3% below forecasts by the broker and consensus due to mine sequencing and weather in New South Wales. Saleable output of 7.3mt was slightly weaker than expected.

Managed sales of 7.5mt were around -2% to -3% below the analysts' forecast, though price realisations modestly outperformed consensus, supported by stronger thermal coal pricing.

Costs remained in the upper half of FY26 guidance at -$130-145/t, with improvement expected by Morgan Stanley in the second half as volumes recover.

Target price of $8.00. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $1.02
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans downgrades Whitehaven Coal to Accumulate from Buy with a new target price of $7.95, down from $8.10 previously.

The miner's 1Q26 update showed NSW operations were heavily impacted by August wet weather, with run-of-mine production falling -12% on the prior quarter. No damage was reported from the flooding.

NSW production came in at 4.356mt, which met the analyst's forecast of 4.35mt and was slightly lower than consensus of 4.4mt. QLD ROM production fell -17% in the quarter to 4.7mt on the previous quarter, below both Morgans and consensus.

Cash of US$500m is held on deposit for the deferred payment due to BMA in April.

Morgans believes investors should look through the cyclical market pessimism on coal prices and concentrate on Whitehaven's strength and diversified business.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $0.97
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Whitehaven Coal to Accumulate from Buy with a lower target price of $7.60 from $7.90, noting the share price has outperformed its peers in 2025, rising 13% versus a decline for peers of -32%.

The September quarter met expectations for production at 7.3mt, but net debt came in higher at $0.8bn from working capital changes, as well as realised prices and costs.

The miner has retained FY26 guidance of 29.5-33mt for sales, with ongoing dragline optimisation at Blackwater and less downtime at Narrabri.

Costs are expected to decline over the year, with the analyst forecasting $136/t.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: $0.62
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

Whitehaven Coal’s September quarter was softer than expected by UBS. Weather disruptions and mine sequencing issues weighed, with managed run-of-mine (ROM) output down -17% in Queensland and -12% in New South Wales.

Maules Creek was most affected, notes the broker, while Blackwater and Daunia also missed expectations.

While unit costs were near the top end of -$130-145/t guidance, UBS expects improvement later in FY26 as volumes recover and $60-80m in cost savings are realised.

The broker retains its Neutral rating and $6.95 target price.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.98 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of Woolworths Group's 1Q26 update on October 29, UBS is forecasting total sales of $18.4bn, up 2.1% y/y, compared with the consensus of $17.9bn. FY26 Australian Food EBIT growth is expected to be re-affirmed at mid-to-high single digits.

The broker's forecast for Australian Food sales at $13.9bn is slightly below market, with like-for-like growth of 2.0% and modest inflation of 1.7%, reflecting subdued execution and slower online sales.

Key watchpoints for the broker include volume growth, private label performance, cost savings progress, and response to supplier price pressures.

New Zealand Food is expected to improve, up 2.9% y/y, while Big W is seen as weak,  up just 0.4%. 

Neutral. Target unchanged at $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.72 Difference: $3.28
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.24, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Re-initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has re-initiated coverage of Zip Co with an Outperform rating and target price of $4.85.

The broker believes the company's investment appeal is underpinned by its rapidly expanding US segment, which is outperforming peers. TTV growth is exceeding 40% annually, and there's a large opportunity to capture new customers in an underserved market.

Operating leverage has improved, with 1Q26 cash EBTDA up 98% y/y and bad debts well controlled. The broker notes customer engagement initiatives and in-store payment expansion are boosting transaction frequency and spend.

A&NZ operations have returned to growth, with disciplined credit management and strong earnings momentum across both regions.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.88
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.04, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources