Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AAC as Buy (1) -

Australian Agricultural Co's 1H operational earnings (EBITDA) of $20.2m exceeded Bell Potter's $17.5m forecast. Reflecting lower live and meat sales values, earnings per kglwt sold declined by -53% year-on-year, explains the broker.

Regarding the outlook, a material uptick in meat sales volumes following the Goonoo expansion is likely offset by weakness in high-fat beef pricing indicators, according to the analysts.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and lowers the target price to $1.95 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.57
If AAC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AAL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage on Alfabs Australia, a diversified industrial services group, with a Buy rating and a target price of 40c.

The Mining division offers equipment hire to operators in the Australian underground black coal mining sector and supplies mining consumables. Bell Potter forecasts up to 20mtpa of underground coal mine supply additions over the next two years.

The Engineering segment provides steel fabrication, on-site structures installation, application of protective coatings, and logistics services. Here, higher activity should be supported by government-funded transport infrastructure expenditures, suggest the analysts.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.06
If AAL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Citi notes October traffic data for Auckland International Airport show international passenger growth broadly in line with expectations, while domestic passenger growth is slightly below expectations.

The broker anticipates potential upside to FY25 underlying NPAT guidance of $280-320m, though weaker domestic figures could partially offset this.

Citi maintains a Buy rating with an NZ$8.70 target price.

Current Price is $6.57. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALL as Add (1) -

Morgans views Aristocrat Leisure's FY24 result as broadly meeting expectations, although the analyst notes the outlook remains "vague," with management guiding for positive growth in FY25 net profit after tax.

Aristocrat's increase in North American gaming operations market share, with a total installed base of 71,131 units, including 7,100 net additions (an 18% rise since the May 2024 results), was considered the "standout" feature of the results.

Management highlighted NFL-themed launches and strong demand for existing titles. The EBITDA margin increased to 34% from 32%, and social casino bookings surpassed US$1bn for the first time in FY24.

Adjusting for the Plarium sale, Morgans raises EPS forecasts by 1% for FY25 and FY26. The Add rating is retained with a higher target price of $73, up from $67.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $67.50 Difference: $5.5
If ALL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $70.75, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Citi highlights the ongoing outperformance of banks, exceeding the performance of the ASX 200 by approximately 700bps over the past month, despite what the analyst describes as "relatively disappointing results."

The broker attributes this performance to the impact of the US election, which is seen as positive for global financials, and the relative steadiness of bank earnings compared to other sectors.

Citi notes asset quality and excess capital as positives, contrasting with rising arrears and credit stress.

Citi maintains its view that bank stocks are overvalued, with the recent rally in share prices deemed unjustified, as Australian banks are unlikely to benefit from the same fundamental changes as US banks.

The stock is Sell rated with a $25.25 target price.

Target price is $25.25 Current Price is $32.45 Difference: minus $7.2 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.39, suggesting downside of -15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley views the banks' results as in line with expectations, with the FY25 outlook offering stable margins and resilient loan growth offset by further inflationary pressures and increased investment spending, the analyst states.

The broker highlights trends in the September quarter were similar to the previous quarter, with no major surprises in the earnings reports.

Pre-provision profits are expected to recover by approximately 3.5%, following a decline of -5.5% in FY24. Morgan Stanley notes easing mortgage competition, with stable competitive pressures in business lending. Margins are expected to remain "stable" in the near term.

National Australia Bank reported a notable rise in new impaired assets linked to a few larger customers, with non-performing exposures increasing by around 6% for the banks.

The broker estimates an FY24 CET1 ratio of 12% for the major banks, accounting for approximately $4bn in unfinished on-market buybacks.

ANZ Bank is Underweight rated. Target price $27.80. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $32.45 Difference: minus $4.65 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.39, suggesting downside of -15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APZ as Buy (1) -

An AGM trading update by affordable accommodation provider Aspen Group highlighted a strong underlying performance, according to Bell Potter, and FY25 EPS guidance was upgraded to 16.0c from 15.2c.

Upgraded guidance is partly explained by $2.5m more development profit than expected, note the analysts, with embedded development profit of $8.9m already exceeding the FY24 number.

The broker raises its FY25-27 EPS forecasts to incorporate a higher margin and settlement profile from residential and land lease development.

Buy. Target rises to $2.75 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.35
If APZ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley views the banks' results as in line with expectations, with the FY25 outlook offering stable margins and resilient loan growth offset by further inflationary pressures and increased investment spending, the analyst states.

The broker highlights trends in the September quarter were similar to the previous quarter, with no major surprises in the earnings reports.

Pre-provision profits are expected to recover by approximately 3.5%, following a decline of -5.5% in FY24. Morgan Stanley notes easing mortgage competition, with stable competitive pressures in business lending. Margins are expected to remain "stable" in the near term.

National Australia Bank reported a notable rise in new impaired assets linked to a few larger customers, with non-performing exposures increasing by around 6% for the banks.

The broker estimates an FY24 CET1 ratio of 12% for the major banks, accounting for approximately $4bn in unfinished on-market buybacks.

Target price $12. Equal-weight. Industry View In-Line.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.45, suggesting downside of -20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley views the banks' results as in line with expectations, with the FY25 outlook offering stable margins and resilient loan growth offset by further inflationary pressures and increased investment spending, the analyst states.

The broker highlights trends in the September quarter were similar to the previous quarter, with no major surprises in the earnings reports.

Pre-provision profits are expected to recover by approximately 3.5%, following a decline of -5.5% in FY24. Morgan Stanley notes easing mortgage competition, with stable competitive pressures in business lending. Margins are expected to remain "stable" in the near term.

National Australia Bank reported a notable rise in new impaired assets linked to a few larger customers, with non-performing exposures increasing by around 6% for the banks.

The broker estimates an FY24 CET1 ratio of 12% for the major banks, accounting for approximately $4bn in unfinished on-market buybacks.

Underweight. Target price $6.10. Sector view is In-Line. 

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.76 Difference: minus $0.66 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley views the banks' results as in line with expectations, with the FY25 outlook offering stable margins and resilient loan growth offset by further inflationary pressures and increased investment spending, the analyst states.

The broker highlights trends in the September quarter were similar to the previous quarter, with no major surprises in the earnings reports.

Pre-provision profits are expected to recover by approximately 3.5%, following a decline of -5.5% in FY24. Morgan Stanley notes easing mortgage competition, with stable competitive pressures in business lending. Margins are expected to remain "stable" in the near term.

National Australia Bank reported a notable rise in new impaired assets linked to a few larger customers, with non-performing exposures increasing by around 6% for the banks.

The broker estimates an FY24 CET1 ratio of 12% for the major banks, accounting for approximately $4bn in unfinished on-market buybacks.

For CommBank, the target price is $113.50. Underweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $113.50 Current Price is $155.13 Difference: minus $41.63 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $102.08, suggesting downside of -33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CHL as Add (1) -

Camplify Holdings provided a trading update at the AGM. Morgans highlights the update revealed a more challenging start to FY25 than expected, with revenue down -2.6% compared to the previous corresponding period.

The broker notes the global fleet grew approximately 15% to 33,500, while the take rate increased 11% to 31.1%.

Morgans attributes the challenges to lower off-season bookings, poor weather, and ongoing delays with the PaulCamper platform migration.

Morgans reduces revenue estimates by -5% to -13% for FY25-FY27, with a decline in EBITDA forecasts partially offset by cost reductions.

The target price decreases to $2.10 from $2.55. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $1.135
If CHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Outperform (1) -

Five years have been added to the open-pit mine life at the Mt Gibson gold project following the latest PFS results and reserve upgrade, observes Macquarie.

After updating forecasts for annual production rates and higher costs (AISC), the broker's overall earnings forecasts decline.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating but lowers the target price to $6.90 from $7.00, as the longer mine life is more than offset by reduced near-term earnings forecasts.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $0.65
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Computershare reiterated guidance for FY25 EPS growth of 7.5%.

Management highlighted strong demand for its employee share plan and corporate action segments. Share registry and portfolio management are expected to benefit from higher margin income balances, offsetting the lower interest rates anticipated from the RBA.

The broker believes the reduced growth outlook explains why the stock is trading at a "steep discount" to the ASX 200 instead of its traditional premium.

Following the guidance update, Ord Minnett raises its FY25 EPS estimate by 4%, and by 4%-6% for the following years.

The target price increases to $31.75 from $30.50. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy due to a 14% share price gain in November.

Target price is $31.75 Current Price is $30.22 Difference: $1.53
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.84, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Capstone Copper with a Buy rating and a $13 target price.

The Mantoverde mine in Chile, 70% owned, is expected to produce 36kt-40kt of copper cathode and 25kt-35kt of copper from sulphide in 2024. 

Mantos Blancos, also in Chile, is expected to produce 6kt of copper cathode and 43kt-49kt of copper from sulphide in 2024.  It is complemented by Pinto Valley in Arizona, Cozamin in Mexico, and Santo Domingo in Chile.

Mantoverde is the largest asset, contributing approximately 49% of the broker’s 2025 earnings forecast, followed by Mantos Blancos, Pinto Valley, and Cozamin at 11%.

Ord Minnett forecasts production to rise to 400kt by 2029 from 190kt in 2024.

Buy rating with a $13 target price.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.54 Difference: $2.46
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTT as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Citi initiates coverage on Cettire with a Sell, High-Risk rating and a $1.30 target price.

The broker believes the luxury industry has peaked after a multi-year boom and now faces inventory build-ups and "soft" demand, with luxury brands seeking to tighten distribution networks, posing challenges for Cettire in accessing stock.

Citi also anticipates increased competition from the arrival of corporate daigou player Poizon from China with a turnaround in Farfetch and YNAP.

The analyst considers consensus estimates overly optimistic and sets earnings forecasts -15% and -8% below consensus for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Sell, High risk rated. Target price $1.30,

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: minus $0.185 (current price is over target).
If CTT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Elders delivered a "solid" FY24 result at first glance. Increased depreciation and amortisation charges led to slightly lower-than-expected EBIT due to increased leverage.

Revenue growth of 4% exceeded the analyst's expectations and consensus, driven by the branch network and wholesale products.

Gross profit margin at 19.9% was significantly higher than estimates, supported by agency services, real estate, and feed and processing.

Management guided for a good summer crop and anticipates an improvement in rural product margins if crop protection prices stabilise.

The company also expects livestock prices to stabilise but remains cautious about the volume outlook in FY25 due to dry conditions in SA and Victoria.

Citi views the result and outlook as a "mixed bag." Buy rated. Target $9.75.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $8.65 Difference: $1.1
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVS as Hold (3) -

Following EnviroSuite's financial year-to-date sales update, Bell Potter modestly reduces its recurring revenue forecasts while slightly increasing non-recurring revenue forecasts, leading to minor net downgrades.

Project sales totaled $0.4m for Industrial and $3.9m for Aviation, prompting the broker to raise its valuation multiple for EnviroSuite due to the potential for follow-on recurring revenues.

Bell Potter maintains a Hold rating and increases the target price to 6c from 5c.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: minus $0.002 (current price is over target).
If EVS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FND as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Findi has acquired the white-label ATM business of India's Tata Communications for -$75.7m, adding around 8,000 ATMs on favourable terms.

The acquisition leads to an EPS upgrade of 26% in the broker's FY26 forecast, based on management's updated guidance, which exceeded the analyst's expectations.

The target price increases 16% to $8.72. The Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $8.72 Current Price is $7.50 Difference: $1.22
If FND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FPR as Buy (1) -

In an initial review of FleetPartners Group's FY24 results (out today), Citi notes a slight beat against its forecasts, an increased buyback, and positive operating momentum. The stock price is expected to trade slightly higher today.

Profit of $78m was 1% ahead of consensus estimates.

Net operating income (NOI) and end-of-lease (EOL) income exceeded broker and consensus forecasts by 2% and 3%, and 4% and 10%, respectively.

EOL income was supported by a 19% increase in units sold in a strong second-hand car market, according to the analyst.

Management anticipates growth in NOI pre-EOL and provisions, partially offset by reduced management fees and funding commissions.

Buy rating. Target $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $1.14
If FPR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.74, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Despite a decline compared to the previous year, GrainCorp's FY24 results were as expected, with Morgans attributing the -53% fall in EBITDA to a smaller crop, reduced grain marketing margins, and the normalisation of oilseed crush margins.

The broker notes operating cash flow was softer than anticipated, but the company ended the year with a cash position of $337m and declared a "high" dividend of 24c per share. GrainCorp has excess franking credits of 92c per share.

Management is expected to provide FY25 earnings guidance at the AGM in February. The company is anticipated to benefit from an above-average grain crop, following better weather in Queensland and New South Wales, with the fourth-largest crop on record, up approximately 50% on an average year.

The target price decreases to $8.81 from $9.45. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $8.81 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $0.66
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HLS as Sell (5) -

Citi notes Healius indicated at its AGM pathology profits for 1H25 would be in line with 1H24, with EBIT at $4m, well below consensus expectations of $25m, and the analyst's forecast of $14m.

Year-to-date revenue growth of 5.9% leads Citi to view the result as "underwhelming," with management attributing labour cost pressures and investments in revenue growth as the main reasons.

The company believes market share has stabilised over the past six months but at the expense of profits.

Citi suggests proceeds from the sale of imaging should enable debt repayment and a special dividend, supported by $161m in available franking credits.

No change to the Sell rating and $1.50 target price.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.165
If HLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

Management's expectation for 1H Pathology earnings fell -81% short of Macquarie's forecast, as investments in revenue growth, elevated labour costs, and inflationary pressures weighed on performance.

Healius targets a high-single-digit percentage margin for Pathology and expects a material increase in 2H25, driven by a 1H/2H volume skew and benefits from strategic initiatives, notes the analyst.

Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and lowers the target price to $1.35 from $1.60, reflecting reduced earnings forecasts and the removal of Lumus Imaging earnings following the division's sale.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.015
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLS as Sell (5) -

Healius announced 1H25 EBIT would be flat compared to the previous corresponding period at approximately $6m, significantly below consensus expectations of $27m and Ord Minnett's forecast of $29m.

Management attributed the lower guidance to wage cost inflation and investments in revenue growth. Net proceeds of $835m from the Lumus sale are expected to be received in the March quarter of 2025. The broker anticipates details of how the proceeds will be utilised will be revealed at the investor day in 2025.

Ord Minnett reduces EPS estimates by -92% for FY25 and -32% for FY26, with the target price declining to $1.30 from $1.37.

The Sell rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

NdPr prices have remained unchanged for the last three weeks, reflecting limited disruption at China Northern Rare Earths, one of the world's largest rare earth producers, observes Macquarie.

The broker suggests the impact of the Myanmar civil war is likely to be temporary and forecasts the NdPr market will remain balanced in the short term, with a small surplus.

The $7.10 target price and Outperform rating are maintained for Iluka Resources.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $1.58
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.83, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a strong update from the Phase I Insight-003 trial, evaluating Eftilagimod alpha (Efti) in combination with Keytruda and chemotherapy for first-line non-small cell lung cancer (1L NSCLC) patients.

The trial reported a median overall survival of 32.9 months for the first 21 patients, surpassing the 22 months observed in the historical Keytruda and chemotherapy Phase III trial (Keynote-189), explain the analysts.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and a target price of $0.70.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.37
If IMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates INA as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates its Buy rating on Ingenia Communities and believes there is potential upside to guidance and consensus estimates, with management retaining FY25 guidance of 5%-10% EPS growth at 24.4c-25.6c. The analyst considers 13% EPS growth achievable.

Ingenia highlighted robust year-to-date sales and settlements until 31 October, up 66% on the year, compared to the broker's 20% growth expectations for FY25.

Queensland remained the key growth driver for sales and the strongest market, while New South Wales experienced "steady" demand.

Deposits on hand were flat at 466 as of 31 October, compared to 469 at the end of June, equating to around 45 home sales a month, which exceeds the analyst's forecast of approximately 35 a month.

The stock is Buy rated with a $6.15 target price.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $1.21
If INA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.95, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

Management at IPH noted ongoing momentum from FY24 into Q1, with solid improvement in revenue and underlying earnings (EBITDA), observes Macquarie.

Group underlying revenue increased compared to the prior corresponding period, driven by ongoing organic growth in Canada and A&NZ, as well as the impact of the Canada acquisition, explains the broker.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating but lowers the target price to $7.11 from $7.31, reflecting a circa -2-3% reduction in EPS forecasts for FY25-FY27 due to operating conditions.

Target price is $7.11 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: $2.05
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting upside of 39.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views the banks' results as in line with expectations, with the FY25 outlook offering stable margins and resilient loan growth offset by further inflationary pressures and increased investment spending, the analyst states.

The broker highlights trends in the September quarter were similar to the previous quarter, with no major surprises in the earnings reports.

Pre-provision profits are expected to recover by approximately 3.5%, following a decline of -5.5% in FY24. Morgan Stanley notes easing mortgage competition, with stable competitive pressures in business lending. Margins are expected to remain "stable" in the near term.

National Australia Bank reported a notable rise in new impaired assets linked to a few larger customers, with non-performing exposures increasing by around 6% for the banks.

The broker estimates an FY24 CET1 ratio of 12% for the major banks, accounting for approximately $4bn in unfinished on-market buybacks.

Overweight. Target price $1.75. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's AGM confirmed balance sheet gearing will decline to the upper end of the guidance range of 5%-15% by June 2025, from elevated levels in 1H25 due to timing of cash receipts from asset sales.

Citi observes softer construction margins in FY25, with improvement into FY26 as higher revenues emerge and COVID-related projects roll off.

The analyst emphasises management's qualitative commentary on lower debt and interest rate costs in FY26, improved market conditions, and the investment division underwriting FUM growth.

The broker suggests One Circular Quay pre sales, at 76% sold, provides better earnings visibility for FY27.

Citi reiterates a Buy rating and $8 target price due to upside potential from further asset sales and/or development projects.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: $1.18
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi downgrades Lovisa Holdings to Sell from Neutral due to slower store roll outs, which have continued longer than the broker anticipated, leading to more moderate EPS growth.

The analyst also notes higher competitive threats from Harli & Harper, with a second store opening on Friday, and heightened uncertainty surrounding the new CEO's transition.

Citi raises concerns about more relaxed site selection criteria in overseas growth markets.

The broker's EPS forecasts are reduced by -4.9% and -10.8% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Citi believes the risks are "too high" over the next 12 months for the stock, despite Brett Bundy owning 39% of the shares. The stock is Sell rated, with a reduced target price of $25.95, down from $32.16.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $29.09 Difference: minus $3.14 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.26, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes Lovisa Holdings' management has opened 15 owned stores since 30 June, which reduces the broker's store rollout forecasts for FY25 and FY26. The roll-out opportunity remains significant in several locations, including North America and Europe.

The analyst expects the incoming CEO will be highly motivated, given no incentive payment will be awarded if EBIT growth falls below 18%.

The target price is reduced to $34.10 from $35.10. Outperform rating maintained.

Target price is $34.10 Current Price is $29.09 Difference: $5.01
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.26, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

NdPr prices have remained unchanged for the last three weeks, reflecting limited disruption at China Northern Rare Earths, one of the world's largest rare earth producers, observes Macquarie.

The broker suggests the impact of the Myanmar civil war is likely to be temporary, and forecasts the NdPr market will remain balanced in the short term, with a small surplus.

The target price for Lynas Rare Earths is reduced by -3% to $7.30 due to NdPr price assumption downgrades. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.16
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Hold (3) -

Morgans highlights Macquarie Group's 1H25 net profit came in approximately -3% below consensus but rose 14% compared to the previous corresponding period or about 23% on the previous half.

Management guided towards a softer outlook for Macquarie Capital and Commodities and Global Markets. The bank's capital position remains robust, with a CET1 ratio of 12.8%, and the buyback has been extended for another 12 months for an additional $1bn out of the $2bn.

Morgans emphasises the bank's 2H earnings bias, with management highlighting the ongoing transition of green assets off the balance sheet into Macquarie Asset Management. The Macquarie Capital investment portfolio is now less mature, indicating the bank remains in an investment phase.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -1% to -6% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Due to the strong rise in the share price and valuation, Morgans retains a Hold rating. The target price increases to $217.21 from $192.10.

Target price is $217.21 Current Price is $229.51 Difference: minus $12.3 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $217.44, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views the banks' results as in line with expectations, with the FY25 outlook offering stable margins and resilient loan growth offset by further inflationary pressures and increased investment spending, the analyst states.

The broker highlights trends in the September quarter were similar to the previous quarter, with no major surprises in the earnings reports.

Pre-provision profits are expected to recover by approximately 3.5%, following a decline of -5.5% in FY24. Morgan Stanley notes easing mortgage competition, with stable competitive pressures in business lending. Margins are expected to remain "stable" in the near term.

National Australia Bank reported a notable rise in new impaired assets linked to a few larger customers, with non-performing exposures increasing by around 6% for the banks.

The broker estimates an FY24 CET1 ratio of 12% for the major banks, accounting for approximately $4bn in unfinished on-market buybacks.

Target price: $38.40. Overweight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $38.40 Current Price is $39.22 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.48, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUZ as Speculative Buy (1) -

Neurizon Therapeutics released data showing NUZ-001 reduces protein aggregation, including TDP-43, which Morgans highlights as a contributor to the development of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), commonly known as motor neurone disease.

The results indicated a notable reduction in DNA-tar binding protein 43 in motor neurons by approximately -50% to -55%, a key feature of ALS.

The Speculative Buy rating and 42c target price are retained. The broker believes Neurizon Therapeutics presents a robust proposition in the rare disease segment.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.22
If NUZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

While there is no change to the medium- or long-term production outlook at Peninsula Energy, Shaw and Partners notes slower-than-expected development of the well fields.

Capex for the project increases by -US$9.5m but is now guaranteed by the contractor, explain the analysts.

Management reduces 2025 uranium production guidance to 600klbs from 700-900klbs.

Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy rating with High Risk and lowers the target price to 24c from 26c to reflect the slower ramp-up.

Managing Director Wayne Heili will resign in 2025, and Chairman John Harrison will step down after a replacement for Wayne Heili is appointed.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.178
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 287% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes crop prices recovered over the last quarter, with corn and soy prices above insured levels by approximately 10% and 15%, respectively.

The broker believes crop losses for QBE Insurance in 2024 will be limited, with 95% of corn harvested compared to the five-year average of 84% and 96% of soy harvested versus the five-year average of 91%.

The Overweight rating and $19.30 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $19.31 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.34, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SMI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Following the release of Santana Minerals' pre-feasibility study (PFS) on the Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project, Bell Potter suggests the project's financial metrics are attractive for both debt and equity financing.

The analyst highlights a high return on capital, rapid payback period, and substantial after-tax free cash flow, indicating the project is well-positioned to advance through final studies, financing, and permitting.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and raises the target price to $1.07 from $0.98.

Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.57
If SMI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners raises its target price for Santana Minerals to $1.14 from 93c following the release of the pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the 100% owned Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project in New Zealand.

The broker attributes the higher target to increased production estimates and greater certainty around project inputs.

Key highlights for the analysts include increased milling capacity to 1.8mtpa from 1.5mtpa and additional pre-strip of 40mt from 32mt, supporting the enhanced production profile.

Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy rating with added High Risk assessment.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.64
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 128% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SPZ as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Smart Parking's 1Q earnings (EBITDA) rose by 30% year-on-year, prompting Shaw and Partners to upgrade earnings forecasts by approximately 2% across the forecast period.

The broker notes regulatory risk in the UK has eased, and the company continues to gain market share through its ANPR technology and strong selling culture.

Management is driving growth in nascent markets, including Germany and Denmark, while evaluating potential expansions in Scandinavia, Europe, and the US, with the latter expected to provide a material share price uplift if announced.

Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy/High Risk rating and raises the target price to $1.10 from 70c.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.2
If SPZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVW as Outperform (1) -

At the FY24 AGM, Seven Group's management reiterated an expected high-single-digit EBIT growth outlook for FY25. Macquarie notes additional support from a recovering housing market, complementing the strength in mining and infrastructure sectors.

The capital sales order book at WesTrac is one of the strongest in a decade, notes the broker, while industry feedback indicates a firm volume outlook for Boral, and demand remains resilient overall at Coates.

Macquarie raises its target price to $50.90 from $47.80, reflecting higher multiples for both Boral and Coates, and the inclusion of Seven Group Holdings' energy assets (Crux and Longtom) at carrying value. The Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $50.90 Current Price is $45.78 Difference: $5.12
If SVW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.13, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley views the banks' results as in line with expectations, with the FY25 outlook offering stable margins and resilient loan growth offset by further inflationary pressures and increased investment spending, the analyst states.

The broker highlights trends in the September quarter were similar to the previous quarter, with no major surprises in the earnings reports.

Pre-provision profits are expected to recover by approximately 3.5%, following a decline of -5.5% in FY24. Morgan Stanley notes easing mortgage competition, with stable competitive pressures in business lending. Margins are expected to remain "stable" in the near term.

National Australia Bank reported a notable rise in new impaired assets linked to a few larger customers, with non-performing exposures increasing by around 6% for the banks.

The broker estimates an FY24 CET1 ratio of 12% for the major banks, accounting for approximately $4bn in unfinished on-market buybacks.

Equal weight, target price $30. Industry View In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $33.06 Difference: minus $3.06 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.40, suggesting downside of -14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates XRO as Hold (3) -

Xero reported 23% revenue growth for 1H25, meeting consensus expectations, Morgans notes. Annual recurring revenue increased 21% year-on-year, with average revenue per user rising 15% and subscriber growth of 6%.

The broker highlights most of the increase in revenue per user was driven by price rises and the removal of idle subscribers.

Morgans raises EBITDA estimates by 1% for FY25 and 13% for FY26. The target price increases 34% to $188, reflecting higher valuations for Xero's peers.

The Hold rating is maintained, as the analyst believes achieving critical mass in the North American market, the company’s next growth lever, will take longer.

Target price is $188.00 Current Price is $172.61 Difference: $15.39
If XRO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $196.15, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources