Australian Broker Call

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May 28, 2024

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
HMC - HMC Capital Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
KED - Keypath Education International Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
PDN - Paladin Energy Downgrade to Hold from Buy Bell Potter
AD8  AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment

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Overnight Price: $15.98

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Long-time CFO of Audinate Group, Mr. Rob Goss, is stepping down for personal reasons, but will be staying for the FY24 results, completion of the FY24 Annual Report and AGM preparation.

Morgan Stanley considers the announcement incrementally negative and could weigh on the share price until more clarity is provided.

The broker remains confident around the increased contribution of Video/Software over FY25-26. The Overweight rating and $22 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $15.98 Difference: $6.02
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.15, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 249.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of -33.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 167.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 136.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 72.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 97.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN  BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $10.97

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the recent Bendigo & Adelaide Bank investor day where management highlighted the ongoing digitalisation of the operations.

The broker expects the changes will remove cost duplication and a new loan origination platform is being rolled out, which should also lower the cost of writing loans.

There are  potential challenges in maintaining net interest margins for the bank amidst rising funding costs and competitive pressures in the mortgage market, according to the analyst.

Earnings forecasts are unchanged. Hold rating. $10.50 target retained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $10.97 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 97.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.9, implying annual growth of 1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 99.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.5, implying annual growth of -1.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.68

Macquarie rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews its forecasts ahead of a strategy update by Beach Energy on June 18.

EPS estimates for FY24-26 increase by 6%, 20% and 16%, respectively, on higher revenues mainly from oil, and to a lesser extent from domestic gas.

The $2.00 target is unchanged as a higher Western Flank oil valuation is largely offset by the removal of Trefoil gas from the broker's BassGas valuation.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.32
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of -7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 56.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ  CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $0.25

Bell Potter rates CAJ as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter transfers coverage of Capitol Health with a Buy rating and an uplift in the target by 3.6% to 29c.

April Medicare data showed encouraging growth in Diagnostic Imaging services, up 5.8% and Benefits up 10.7%, despite GP attendances being down -1.8%, highlights the analyst.

The company's balance sheet is viewed as in good shape, with leverage expected to decline below 2x by FY24, supporting potential M&A activities, according to the broker.

Revenue estimates for FY24-FY26 have been increased by Bell Potter, but inflationary pressures are expected to dampen operating margin recovery, leading to a slight downgrade in earnings expectations. 

Buy. 29c target price.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.045
If CAJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.31, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP  CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $3.20

Ord Minnett rates CIP as Hold (3) -

Centuria Industrial REIT continues to benefit from rental income growth in the industrial space and low portfolio occupancy rates which came in at 2.8% at the end of the March quarter, highlights Ord Minnett.

The strong rental growth alleviates the analyst's concerns around the financial strength of the trust with the cost of debt to rise to 6.5% in the medium term as hedges roll off.

An equity raising is still expected by the broker to assist in future potential developments. Earnings forecasts are adjusted higher for the strength in rentals.

Hold rating and the fair value estimate is raised by 6% to $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.3
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 0.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP  DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $37.01

Citi rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

The primary takeaway from the Domino's Pizza Enterprises Hamburg Investor Day, according to the Citi analyst, is management has altered the wording around the timing of longer-term store targets.

Citi highlights a shift from 2033 to an unspecified "long-term target", which the broker interprets as the company moving away from rigid goal setting.

Given the last few years of a slower store openings, the change is not surprising, notes the analyst, with consensus looking for 2,505 stores by the end of FY33 compared to the company's target of 2,900 over the longer-term.

Neutral rating. $44.50 target.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: $7.49
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.92, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 96.50 cents and EPS of 127.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.5, implying annual growth of 198.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 109.40 cents and EPS of 168.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of 31.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

One of Macquarie's takeaways from the Europe investor day held by Domino's Pizza Enterprises is management's aim to more than double store count in Germany over the long-term. There are currently around 400 stores in Germany.

Separately, management sees food start-up aggregators as key drivers of incremental growth.

These aggregators are platforms that aggregate food delivery services from various restaurants and offer them to consumers, facilitating online orders and deliveries.

The Neutral rating and $41.00 target are maintained.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $37.01 Difference: $3.99
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.92, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 96.70 cents and EPS of 126.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.5, implying annual growth of 198.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of 31.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC  HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $7.25

Macquarie rates HMC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie raises its target for HMC Capital to $7.97 from $6.96 and upgrades the rating to Outperform from Neutral.

These changes follow the acquisition of Payton Capital, a private credit manager, alongside a $100m institutional placement and $30m shareholder purchase plan.

The acquisition increases assets under management (AUM) to $12.5bn, with management reaffirming its $20bn medium-term target.

The broker believes the transaction will be around 7% accretive to operating EPS, and sees material upside if management executes on its growth ambitions in the credit segment.

Target price is $7.97 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.72
If HMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 66.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

HMC Capital will outlay -$127.5m to acquire Payton Capital, a Commercial Real Estate private credit asset manager. Given the involvement of UBS in the transaction, the broker's research is now restricted. 

The announcement yesterday included a $100m fully underwritten institutional placement, and a non-underwritten security purchase plan to raise up to $30m.

There will also be a -$50m on-market sell-down of the REIT's co-investment in HomeCo Daily Needs REIT ((HDN)).

The Neutral rating and $6.95 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 66.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX  IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals

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Overnight Price: $2.19

Bell Potter rates IPX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter remains positive on Iperionx and views the company is well-positioned to disrupt the existing titanium supply chain by lowering costs of production and waste. 

The company has successfully installed the HAMR titanium furnace and commissioning is soon with the first titanium powder expected from mid-2024, highlights the analyst.

Management continues to facilitate commercial arrangements. The broker expects these will support the Virginia facility expansion to 2,000tpa from 125tpa production, which equates to US$120m EBITDA from 2026 (estimated capital expenditure -US$70m).

Speculative Buy rating. Target raised to $3.85 from $3.70, due to the removal of an equity raising assumption.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $1.66
If IPX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.42.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KED  KEYPATH EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL INC

Education & Tuition

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Overnight Price: $0.84

Macquarie rates KED as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie increases its target to 87c from 67c to align with the merger agreement offer price (they always call it a 'merger', don't they) for Keypath Education International from Sterling Partners, which already held a 66% stake in the company.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Separately, management at Keypath upgraded FY24 revenue guidance to US$137-139m from the upper end of US$130-135m.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.035
If KED meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.81.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLC  LENDLEASE GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $6.36

Citi rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes investors will remain cautious on Lendlease Group due to the complexity of the business restructuring involving the divestment of $4.5bn in assets.

The broker highlights $2.8bn out of the total is already on the market and there are expectations of sales within the next 12-months, with the remaining $1.7bn taking longer to secure. Management suggested FY25-FY28.

Post the sales, the analyst envisages the company will return to being a fund manager/developer with over 75% of the capital deployed in Australia.

Citi emphasises the shares could re-rate to $8 on the successful asset sales, so execution is key, the analyst states.

Neutral rating and $6.90 target.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $0.54
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 64.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 73.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates LLC as No Rating (-1) -

As per yesterday's strategy update, Lendlease Group will focus on being an investments-led business and exit from overseas construction, and wind-down offshore developments.

Macquarie explains the company aims to divest -$4.5bn of operations in offshore development and construction, from which around $2.8bn of capital may be released within 12 months. The restructuring will incur around -$1.2-$1.5bn of impairments and charges.

While the company's business model will now be simpler, the broker points out the key hurdle will be executing on these divestments with limited impairments.

Macquarie is on research restriction.

Current Price is $6.36. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 44.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 74.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley likes Lendlease Group's restructure plans, noting the group will now be known as an Australian developer, and global fund manager. 

Lendlease will become a modestly geared company, notes the broker, concentrating on Australia which has traditionally achieved around 14% annual returns.

Management is targeting $4.5bn (book value) of asset sales, with Tranche 1 ($2.8bn) to be completed by June 2025. The analysts see scope for the initial proposed $500m capital return to be extended to around $1bn post Tranche 2 asset sales.

FY24 profit guidance is around $450m, broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's $472m estimate.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained and the target rises to $7.35 from $7.25. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.36 Difference: $0.99
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC  LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $6.71

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Attaining full cracking and leaching (C&L) capacity depends on a further Mt Weld expansion by Lynas Rare Earths, suggests Morgan Stanley. 

Until then, the broker believes costs will likely be hampered by Kalgoorlie C&L operating in campaign mode, or both Kalgoorlie and Malaysia operating below nameplate.

The Underweight rating is unchanged. The broker's target rises to $5.35 from $5.20 to allow for a Mt Weld and Separating and Finishing expansion by FY29. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 95.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of -75.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 79.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 241.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU  NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $23.97

Bell Potter rates NEU as Buy (1) -

Neuren Pharmaceuticals reported positive Phase 2 trial results for NNZ-2591 in Pitt Hopkins syndrome, which, according to the Bell Potter analyst,  showed significant efficacy and a favourable safety profile.

The broker notes a mean Clinical Global Impression of Improvement (CGI-I) score of 2.6, with nearly half of the patients showing marked improvement in symptoms.

The trial outcomes boost the broker's confidence in NNZ-2591, with potential commencement of registrational trials in 2025.

Bell Potter's earnings forecasts remain unchanged. The broker highlights the company's cash position remains strong at $243m, sufficient to fund future trials.

Buy rating unchanged. Target raised to $28 from $26.50.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $23.97 Difference: $4.03
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 84.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.27.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 72.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.88.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $14.47

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Citi anticipates consensus forecasts for for Northern Star Resources' all-in-sustaining-costs (AISC) next year will rise from current estimates of $1,756/oz and the analyst now estimates AISC of $1,875 and total capital expenditure of around -$1.7bn in FY25.

The broker also revises the company's forecast earnings for the adjustment in the house gold price forecast of US$2,400/oz in 2024 and  the long-term real gold price to US$1,850 from US$1,600.

EPS forecasts for Northern Star Resources are lifted by 4.5% for FY24 and 23.7% in FY25.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target adjusted to $15.20 from $14.50.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $14.47 Difference: $0.73
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.27, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 54.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 97.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.7, implying annual growth of 98.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN  PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium

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Overnight Price: $15.74

Bell Potter rates PDN as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The Bell Potter analyst attended the Paladin Energy Langer Heinrich mine and came away "surprised" at the quality of the site, infrastructure and the workforce.

The mine restart is proceeding well and could generate upside potential to earnings estimates, although Bell Potter points to potential higher operating costs, up 5% from inflation, as a moderating factor.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy due to the strong share price performance. Target lowered to $15.70 from $16.50.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $15.74 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.31, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9369.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 65.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGC  PARAGON CARE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.38

Bell Potter rates PGC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter assesses the merger of Paragon Care and CH2 Holdings is expected to succeed with the shareholder meeting to approve the merger scheduled for 3 June.

The broker expects the merger to generate at least -$10.8m in cost synergies annually from FY25 and -$1.8m in finance charge savings or total savings of at least -$12m.

Paragon Care will be positioned as a leading healthcare wholesaler, distributor, and manufacturer in the Asia Pacific region, post merger notes the broker. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 45 cents from 31 cents.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.075
If PGC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.86.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE  QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $17.78

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi views upside potential to QBE Insurance's profits if crop insurance returns to normal levels and the run-off plan succeeds without significant expense overruns.

The analyst highlights the North American combined operating ratio could lift to 95%-96% without assuming changes in rates and inflation adjustments.

Distribution challenges in the US mid-market remain, but even partial success could drive share price upside, notes Citi.

The Buy rating is retained and the target lifted to $20 from $19.50.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.78 Difference: $2.22
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 75.58 cents and EPS of 181.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 81.52 cents and EPS of 189.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.8, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $3.68

Citi rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses the acquisition of Melbourne International RoRo & Automotive Terminal (MIRRAT) by Qube Holdings' subsidiary Australian Amalgamated Terminals (AAT) for -$332.5m which will be debt funded.

The analyst's primary analysis points to the acquisition adding 3%-4% to FY25 forecasts; the company's gearing is expected to rise to between 33%-35%.

Post covid, there are growing amounts of contaminated cars which will offer new revenue streams for the Automotive Ro/Ro industry, according to the broker.

Buy rating. $3.95 target.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.27
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of 48.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Industry twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) so far in the 2H are up by 12% year-on-year, ahead of the 9% forecast by UBS.

A TEU represents the dimensions of a standard twenty-foot container - a universal benchmark for calculating the capacity of cargo vessels and the volume of shipments.

The broker believes a combination of industry growth plus higher landside charges will providing some support to Patrick's market share reversion from an elevated 1H.

The $4.15 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.47
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of 48.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST. BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.24

Macquarie rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

Lack of equipment availability at St. Barbara's Simberi mine has pushed higher-grades into FY25 that were scheduled for June 2024, explains Macquarie.

This problem has resulted in a -10% production downgrade at the mine for FY24, while costs (AISC) will be -15% worse.

More positively, the broker is incrementally more confident in the recently released outlook for FY25, which was included in the recent 10-year Simberi concept study.

Neutral rating unchanged. The target price falls to 25c from 29c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.015
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.92.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.22.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF  STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.59

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie suspects earnings growth may be more difficult for Steadfast Group as the premium rate cycle slows. It's felt the company will become increasingly reliant on US M&A, renegotiation of Strata contracts and large M&A locally.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target rises to $6.70 from $6.40 after the broker updates bond yield forecasts and adjusts forecasts for the current operating environment.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.59 Difference: $1.11
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 27.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 43.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO  SERKO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $3.04

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

The Citi analyst's first take on the Serko FY24 earnings reveal better than expected results at the EBITDA level with FY25 guidance meeting forecasts, although the revenue is 2H25 weighted.

The broker highlights the reported EBITDA loss of -NZ$1.6m was less than the -NZ$3.8m loss anticipated, also beating the consensus estimate for a -NZ$2.3m loss..

Lower costs supported the better result, according to the analyst, and cash spend was basically flat, with revenues boosted by price rises.

Disappointingly, notes the analyst, is the fall in Business active customers to 172k in the 2H24 from 176k in the 1H24; as well as a decline in completed room nights per active customer, and a -1% fall in North American revenue, year-on-year.

Buy rating. $4 target price.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.96
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 64.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 119.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXG  SOUTHERN CROSS GOLD LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $3.00

Shaw and Partners rates SXG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Southern Cross Gold reported significant results from two diamond drillholes at the Rising Sun prospect within the Sunday Creek Project, which showed high-grade gold and antimony intercepts

The results have extended mineralisation beyond current bounds of the exploration target and the analyst lifts the resource estimate to 2.0Moz gold equivalent from 1.6Moz gold equivalent.

Southern Cross Gold has $13.5m in cash and plans to drill 60km over the next 12 months, with multiple rigs onsite, notes Shaw and Partners.

Buy rating retained and the target raised to $3.26 from $2.90 on the back of the improved drilling results.

Target price is $3.26 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.26
If SXG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 375.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 333.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLC  LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $5.00

UBS rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Powerball's jackpots have had another successful run, which helps raise FY24 forecasts by UBS for Lottery Corp.

The broker highlights Lottery Corp's latest game innovation: the rebrand of the Monday-Wednesday product as 'Weekday Windfall', its expansion into Friday, and its 9% price increase.

The innovation is expected to add $15m to EBITDA growth in FY25.

The $5.75 target is retained. The broker states its Buy rating is supported by the company's growing track record of game innovation, gradual digital penetration, and stabilising costs.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.75
If TLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 45.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS  TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $3.53

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Optus has increased the price points across its Small and Medium Choice Plus plans by $3/month. The Optus Choice Plus SIM Only Plans for your phone are designed for customers who bring their own (BYO) phones and want flexible, no-lock-in-contract options.

As this change illustrates ongoing mobile rationality across the industry, UBS remains positive on Telstra Group's ability to put through further price hikes in Mobiles.

Such outcome is possible, suggests the broker, despite removing CPI indexation in postpaid mobile contracts.

The Buy rating and $4.40 target for Telstra are unchanged.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.87
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
CAJ Capitol Health $0.24 Bell Potter 0.29 N/A -
CIP Centuria Industrial REIT $3.19 Ord Minnett 3.50 3.30 6.06%
HMC HMC Capital $7.11 Macquarie 7.97 6.76 17.90%
IPX Iperionx $2.42 Bell Potter 3.85 3.70 4.05%
KED Keypath Education International $0.84 Macquarie 0.87 0.67 29.85%
LLC Lendlease Group $6.24 Morgan Stanley 7.35 7.25 1.38%
LYC Lynas Rare Earths $6.72 Morgan Stanley 5.35 5.00 7.00%
NEU Neuren Pharmaceuticals $23.11 Bell Potter 28.00 26.50 5.66%
NST Northern Star Resources $14.51 Citi 15.20 14.50 4.83%
PDN Paladin Energy $15.65 Bell Potter 15.70 16.50 -4.85%
PGC Paragon Care $0.39 Bell Potter 0.45 0.31 45.16%
QBE QBE Insurance $17.73 Citi 20.00 19.50 2.56%
SBM St. Barbara $0.24 Macquarie 0.25 0.29 -13.79%
SDF Steadfast Group $5.56 Macquarie 6.70 6.40 4.69%
SKO Serko $2.87 Citi 4.00 4.90 -18.37%
SXG Southern Cross Gold $2.81 Shaw and Partners 3.26 2.61 24.90%
Summaries
AD8 Audinate Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $15.98
BEN Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.97
BPT Beach Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.68
CAJ Capitol Health Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.25
CIP Centuria Industrial REIT Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.20
DMP Domino's Pizza Enterprises Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $37.01
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $37.01
HMC HMC Capital Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.25
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.25
IPX Iperionx Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $2.19
KED Keypath Education International Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.84
LLC Lendlease Group Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $6.36
No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.36
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.36
LYC Lynas Rare Earths Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.71
NEU Neuren Pharmaceuticals Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $23.97
NST Northern Star Resources Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.47
PDN Paladin Energy Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $15.74
PGC Paragon Care Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $0.38
QBE QBE Insurance Buy - Citi Overnight Price $17.78
QUB Qube Holdings Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.68
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.68
SBM St. Barbara Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.24
SDF Steadfast Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.59
SKO Serko Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.04
SXG Southern Cross Gold Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $3.00
TLC Lottery Corp Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.00
TLS Telstra Group Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.53
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

1

Tuesday 28 May 2024

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.