Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ABP as Buy (1) -

Abacus Property has announced the successful completion of its security holder offer of 1 Abacus Storage King share for 5.6
shares as part of the broader de-stapling of the Self-Storage business.

Abacus intends on de-stapling the business and separately listing the Abacus Storage King (“ASK”) business, explains Citi. ASK will own, operate, and manage a $3bn self storage portfolio and the Storage King operating platform.

The $1.41 issue price was better than the broker anticipated, representing a -10.2% discount to net tangible assets (NTA) of $1.57. This represents an implied -65% discount to Abacus Property's commercial asset base and is considered compelling value.

The de-stapling implementation is expected on August 3 with the allotment of new shares on August 4.

The Buy rating and $3.40 target for Abacus Property are unchanged.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.67
If ABP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects retail electricity tariffs and realised hedging prices will rise driven largely by movements in the Wholesale Energy Component (WEC).

These rises are a lagged impact from the shock that hit the National Electricity Market (NEM) last winter, explain the analysts. It's anticipated this impact will dissipate after FY24.

Regarding AGL Energy, Morgans adjusts its forecasts for the early and strong recent profit guidance though, unless wholesale prices rally again, FY24 may be a peak earnings year. It's also thought the company's competitive advantage in black coal will unwind over time.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target rises to $10.53 from $6.89, influenced by a switch to incorporate a FY24 earnings multiple.

Target price is $10.53 Current Price is $10.75 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

AGL Energy's investor briefing exceeded expectations, UBS reports, underpinned by the upgrade to FY23 guidance and an improved gas supply portfolio.

The key item of interest was the confirmation of sustained electricity price increases over the last 18 months that will "wash through" the portfolio over the next 2-3 years.

UBS also envisages further upside from plans to develop distributed energy resources. AGL has adjusted its distribution payout to 50-75% of underlying net profit to maintain balance sheet flexibility. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $12.15 from $9.60.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $10.75 Difference: $1.4
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AKE as Buy (1) -

Analysts at Citi attended a briefing hosted by Allkem and US-listed Livent around the rational for a merged entity and general market conditions.

Synergies are an obvious merger benefit, along with procurement opportunities (i.e. Soda Ash removes the need to buy lithium metal), highlights Citi.

Recent hydroxide pricing resilience highlights the benefits of being integrated, according to the two companies, given original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) need reliable volumes at scale with minimal impurities.

It was also noted the percentage of business transacted on a spot basis is small and contracts are becoming longer-term. Also, carbonate and hydroxide are very different markets, as is the China and ex-China market.

Citi's Buy rating and $17.40 target price are retained.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $1.53
If AKE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.13, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Digital industry bookings have shown some stabilisation following a weak March, notes Citi, while Aristocrat Leisure's titles
have mostly outperformed, particularly its Social Casino portfolio.

RAID was again weak, observes the broker, but Merge Gardens looks to be off to a strong start following its relaunch.

The $42.80 target is unchanged. The broker's Buy rating is predicated on ongoing outperformance of the land-based business and the long-term prospects for real money gaming (RMG).

Target price is $42.80 Current Price is $39.06 Difference: $3.74
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.00, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMX as Add (1) -

While Aerometrex announced a material tender win ($1.69m) for geospatial dataset to an Australian Federal Government agency, industry feedback suggests operating cost pressures have continued into the 2H, notes Morgans.

In particular, the analyst highlights increasing travel domestically and overseas is restricting the availability of pilots.

The broker decides to reset its cost-base estimate and adjust its valuation multiple to arrive at a 47c target, down from $1.09. The Add rating is unchanged as shares are considered undervalued and present an opportunity for long-term investors.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.18
If AMX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APE as Neutral (3) -

Based on a similar play around Smartgroup Corp ((SIQ)) in 2015-17, Citi believes Eagers Automotive's purchase of a 5.7% stake in McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS)) is unlikely to be increased.

The broker believes Eagers is looking for further exposure to the growing electric vehicle (EV) market. Thanks to the government‘s Electric Car Discount Policy, the most logical option when purchasing an EV below $84,916 is to use a novated lease.

The Neutral rating and $12.40 target are retained.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $12.84 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.41, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVH as Add (1) -

Avita Medical has announced receival of premarket approval (PMA) from the FDA for use of its Recell system for repigmentation of stable vitiligo lesions. The condition, which affects up to 2% of the population, results in a loss of pigmentation in patches of skin.

Shares have rallied in the lead up to this announcement and after the June 8 PMA success for label expansion into soft tissue repair. Combined, these two approvals expand the potential marketable population by 15 times, according to Morgans.

The broker remains positive on the stock on upcoming trading updates on sales progression and the lodgement of the Recell Go automated device.

The Add rating and $5.53 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.53 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.73
If AVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AVH as Hold (3) -

The US Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of Recell for the treatment of stable vitiligo, the first FDA-approved therapeutic devices for skin re-pigmentation in these lesions.

Ord Minnett does not expect much in the way of sales before January 2025 as the business is more intent on its recent expansion of Recell in soft tissue repair where it immediately received reimbursement support.

Ord Minnett continues to believe the shares are undervalued yet a near-term transition to profitability is considered unlikely. Hold rating and $5.60 target.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.8
If AVH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter updates forecasts to account for movements in the cash rate and the impact of a strengthened Australian dollar on commodity returns.

Farmgate pricing has been competitive and, while this is manageable, the rapid appreciation in the Australian currency appears "unrecoverable" in the absence of higher US dollar commodity prices or further increases in the prices of Bega Cheese's branded portfolio.

Buy rating retained. Target price is reduced to $4.00 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.44
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBO as Buy (1) -

Cobram Estate Olives has flagged expectations for 12.6-13.2m litres of olive oil production from its groves in Australia. This is a -14% reduction from Ord Minnett's prior forecasts and attributed to an unusually cold and shorter growing season in spring/summer.

Major importers to Australia are facing record high global prices and volume shortages on account of the Spanish drought and the broker expects this will result in increases to on shelf prices in 2023 and 2024, providing upside risk to the company's wholesale pricing outlook and margins.

The broker notes Cobram Estate has sufficient oil to satisfy branded product channels in FY24. Although there is less volume for export markets this is expected to be mitigated by the favourable pricing outlook.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $1.54 from $1.65.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.4
If CBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes investors are materially underestimating the extent of price increases implemented by Collins Foods.. While acknowledging conditions are challenging, the broker believes there are more offsets compared what what is currently priced in.

Historically, the quick service industry has fared better compare with other segments and KFC has a strong brand, although the extent of volume decline from softer consumption is the key swing factor. UBS retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $8.10 from $8.70.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.32
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.60, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

CSL has updated to FY23 guidance to be towards the top end of the range in constant currency terms, but adverse currency movements are expected to provide a profit headwind implying a result -1% below Macquarie's forecast.

FY24 guidance has been lowered to well below the broker's forecast, on a more gradual recovery in gross margins for CSL Behring, reaching pre-covid levels in 2H26 (previously 2H25), and assumed generic competition for Ferinject in Europe.

Combined with higher net interest costs and updated FX assumptions, the broker has cut FY24-25 earnings forecasts by -12-11%. Target falls to $326 from $344, Outperform retained.

Target price is $326.00 Current Price is $284.44 Difference: $41.56
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $328.17, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -

Centaurus Metals has secured 100% offtake rights for all Jaguar nickel from Vale in exchange for an increase in Vale's Net Operating Royalty over the project, Macquarie reports. The royalty will be increased by 1.2% for nickel sulphate product and 1.25% for nickel concentrate and other products produced from Jaguar.

The extinguishing of Vale's offtake rights allows Centaurus to pursue other avenues which could including bringing a partner onboard for the project. This would make sense in the broker's view, as it would decrease Centaurus' share of capex to bring Jaguar into production.

On the increased royalty, target falls to $1.55 from $1.60, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.66
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT has sold 3-4 Forbes Close for $22.9m, an -8.4% discount to book value. This follows the $67m sale of 16-28 Quarry Rd Stapylton earlier in the month, broadly in line with book value.

Macquarie notes divestments reduce look-through gearing by -4ppts to 25.5%, freeing up additional balance sheet capacity for deployment into developments.

Outperform and $3.28 target retained.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.54
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Citi feels the sale by Dexus of Axxess Corporate Park at a 7.4% premium to book value demonstrates favourable investor sentiment towards industrial assets relative to office assets, where more caution prevails.

The REIT is recycling a number of assets into higher-returning developments, which further highlights to the broker a favourable discount of the Dexus share price to net tangible assets (NTA).

Neutral and $8.00 target retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.11, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EML as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As the share price of EML Payments has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett raises the rating to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $0.80.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.195
If EML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FCL as Buy (1) -

Fineos Corp has signed a contract with a tier 1 customer, Guardian Life, evidencing the power of the company's cross-sell opportunity, says Shaw and Partners.

The broker says it also confirms a growing trend to outsourcing in-house development to third party software.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating and $3.30 target price, noting the company is trading at an enterprise/revenue multiple of 3x. Meanwhile, software stocks have risen 10% on the ASX and 32% in the US since, notes the broker.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $1.23
If FCL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans expects retail electricity tariffs and realised hedging prices will rise driven largely by movements in the Wholesale Energy Component (WEC).

These rises are a lagged impact from the shock that hit the National Electricity Market (NEM) last winter, explain the analysts. It's anticipated this impact will dissipate after FY24.

Regarding Genex Power, Morgans points to ongoing progress on the Kidston Hydro project and the company's battery project is drawing closer to first energisation.

The broker retains its Speculative Buy rating in the belief a significant re-rate becomes more likely as construction risk eases. The target eases to 26c form 27c.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.095
If GNX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights Hub24 as a key buy heading into June 30 quarterly results in mid July given the company's recent -15% retreat towards historical lows.

The broker says the June quarter is seasonally the company's strongest quarter; and notes that Hub24 recently nabbed first place for quarter and annual net inflows and first in all 7 categories of the Adviser Ratings Financial Landscape survey.

Shaw and Partners notes the growing trend for bulk transitions, and expects this should drive EPS growth, HUB24 signing heads of agreements totalling $4bn in funds under management over the next 18 months.

Buy rating retained, the broker noting the company continues to trade at a discount to peers and -30% below its long-term average, despite illustrating market leadership. Target price is $38.50.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $25.87 Difference: $12.63
If HUB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.73, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

UBS revisits price expectations for ASX lithium names. With its first quarter price lag structure at Greenbushes, UBS forecasts IGO's September quarter realised price could be US$4340/t.

Lifting its FY24 spodumene price in line with the latest Platts price of US$3500/t would mean 10% higher earnings per share for IGO.

The broker's China-focused team is confident of an acceleration in EV penetration into the second half that will keep sales on track for 8.8m units in 2023. Buy rating and $18.80 target maintained.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $14.90 Difference: $3.9
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.01, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has visited the US and found construction market conditions are improving overall, and James Hardie Industries' competitive position remains solid.

The group's renewed contractor focus appears well received by the channel in particular, and the broker believes in a vital re-emphasis in the go-to market strategy, continuing to see a substantial market opportunity supporting growth in the long term.

Target rises to $44.50 from $43.15, Outperform retained.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $40.20 Difference: $4.3
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.10, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy's Bauna/Patola fields ramped up strongly following the loss of containment incident causing a shutdown from early April through mid-May, however have now encountered an issue with a cooling unit.

Karoon is running at lower production until it is able to replace a part within the cooling unit, Macquarie notes, upon which time it can open up production to higher rates again.

Bauna/Patola operations have nonetheless been de-risked, and once the temporary export levy has expired the broker expects Karoon to enter a period of considerable cashflow. Outperform and $2.90 target retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.87
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LGI as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects retail electricity tariffs and realised hedging prices will rise driven largely by movements in the Wholesale Energy Component (WEC).

These rises are a lagged impact from the shock that hit the National Electricity Market (NEM) last winter, explain the analysts. It's anticipated this impact will dissipate after FY24.

Regarding LGI, the broker aligns its electricity and Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCU) forecasts with a recent trading update, which reduces net profit estimates slightly. 

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price rises to $2.36 from $2.34.

Target price is $2.36 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If LGI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MCE as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Hold (3) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Matrix Composites & Engineering with a Speculative Hold rating and $0.35 target. The company has guided to FY23 revenue of $45-50m which implies a significantly stronger second half, in the broker's assessment.

The earnings and cash flow outlook is leveraged to increases in global offshore energy development activity, which Bell Potter estimates is currently at a five-year high.

This has resulted in a larger outstanding order book of $80m, which compares favourably with an order book of $30m as of June 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.065
If MCE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

UBS revisits price expectations for ASX lithium names. The broker's current FY24 spodumene price estimate is US$3000/t.

The broker's China-focused team is confident of an acceleration in EV penetration into the second half that will keep sales on track for 8.8m units in 2023. Neutral rating and $80 target maintained for Mineral Resources.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $73.39 Difference: $6.61
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $87.14, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Buy (1) -

Box prices are proving more resilient than initially expected and Citi now sees potential upside in US margins for Orora and a continuation in improving trends.

The broker's market research shows box prices have fallen by around -2% since March, despite a -10% fall in container board prices.

Citi remains Buy-rated on Orora and sees upside potential from an increased probability in the US for near-term margins beats, as well as capacity for inorganic growth in a slowing macro environment.

The Buy rating and $3.70 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.48
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects retail electricity tariffs and realised hedging prices will rise driven largely by movements in the Wholesale Energy Component (WEC).

These rises are a lagged impact from the shock that hit the National Electricity Market (NEM) last winter, explain the analysts. It's anticipated this impact will dissipate after FY24.

Regarding Origin Energy, Morgans believes the takeover by the Brookfield consortium will proceed and the target eases to $8.48 from $8.55 due to higher expected dividend payments in FY24 impacting the acquisition price. Hold.

Target price is $8.48 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.74, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Buy (1) -

UBS revisits price expectations for ASX lithium names. UBS forecasts Pilbara Minerals will realise US$3360/t on sales of 162,000t SC5.3% in the June quarter.

Lifting its FY24 spodumene price in line with the latest Platts price of US$3500/t would mean 20% higher earnings per share for Pilbara Minerals.

The broker's China-focused team is confident of an acceleration in EV penetration into the second half that will keep sales on track for 8.8m units in 2023. Buy rating and $4.50 target maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.82 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

After a number of failed attempts to reinvigorate the North America business, described by Citi as QBE Insurance's Achilles heel, this time may be different.

The broker notes the company has ambitions to grow its US mid-market business and feels business conditions are now as good as they will ever be to make such an attempt.

The analyst forecasts modest improvement for the NA business and its ex-crop combined operating ratio (COR) forecast of 98.2% is better than consensus is expecting. The crop component of the business is considered attractive.

The broker's target for QBE Insurance rises to $17.30 from $16.30. Buy.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $15.44 Difference: $1.86
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

As the share price of QBE Insurance has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett downgrades to Lighten from Hold. Target is $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $15.44 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.38, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

As the share price of Santos has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. Target is $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $4.43
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.35, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

Xero has announced FY24 price increases in Australia of 13% (following 9% in FY23), while the NZ price increase is 9%. Price increases in recent periods have been an increasingly larger contributor to growth, Macquarie notes.

While A&NZ churn has remained relatively static, demonstrating the stickiness of the business, the broker does not view price uplift as a growth option for the US/UK businesses given a relatively softer market position.

Macquarie believes subscriber growth, particularly in the UK and US, is ultimately what matters for the next leg of profitability for the group. There is little room for error in the valuation, in the broker's view, given Xero is trading materially above its listed domestic peers.

Target rises to $119 from $106 on higher margins, Neutral retained.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $118.21 Difference: $0.79
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $109.62, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources