Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

The company has announced that Jayne Hrdlicka, currently CEO of Jetstar ((QAN)), will take over the helm of a2 Milk from Geoff Babidge.

Credit Suisse observes the challenges and opportunities for the new CEO will be to accelerate the business transformation into a true global brand in the dairy sector. Neutral. Target is NZ$8.50.

Current Price is $7.36. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AFG as Add (1) -

The combined industry forum has presented to the government its first response to the ASIC review of mortgage broker remuneration. Morgans does not expect the proposals to have a materially adverse impact on Australian Finance Group's profitability.

The broker considers recent share price weakness presents an opportunity to obtain exposure to the company's strong growth prospects and attractive dividend yield.

Add retained. Target is $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.16
If AFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's energy analysts have upgraded near-term oil prices to reflect a tighter market in 2018.

While the impact on BHP's earnings outlook is modest, the broker upgrades forecasts for earnings per share by 2% and 4% in FY18 and FY19 respectively.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $32.40 from $32.00.

Target price is $32.40 Current Price is $27.74 Difference: $4.66
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.72, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes, with uncertainty around the CEO succession and the AUSTRAC proceedings, the current premium is increasingly difficult to justify.

AUSTRAC has filed additional allegations and, while CBA will need time to respond, the broker expects the number of admitted breaches to rise and settlement to be higher than originally expected.

A solid first half result is still expected, underpinned by improving margins and lower impairment charges, but given the slowing housing market and the regulatory risks the broker believes the bank's performance is likely to lag its peers.

Neutral. Target is $81.50.

Target price is $81.50 Current Price is $80.04 Difference: $1.46
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $78.59, suggesting downside of -1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CLQ as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Deutsche Bank updates its mining and grade profile to aline with the latest technical document for the Sunrise project. The company has released the document in anticipation of listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The stock is now trading at a discount to the broker's risk-weighted target of $1.60 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

The company plans to mine at higher rates during the early stages of Sunrise to capture higher cobalt credits. Deutsche Bank updates assumptions to allow for a higher strip ratio during the first seven years.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.22
If CLQ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTX as Buy (1) -

The ACCC's knock-back of the BP-Woolworths ((WOW)) deal is beneficial for Caltex, the broker notes, as the existing contract will continue until BP-WOW can get over the line, or not. Divestments, an appeal, a restart of the process or a simple walk-away are all possibilities.

Caltex has already offset some of the assumed loss through cost-outs and acquisitions and the broker believes the market is underestimating Caltex' capacity to further offset or, as of now, perhaps retain the contract. Buy and $37.66 target retained.

Target price is $37.66 Current Price is $35.68 Difference: $1.98
If CTX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.49, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The ACCC intends to oppose the proposed acquisition of the Woolworths ((WOW)) service station network by BP. BP and Woolworths are currently considering options in the light of the decision.

Caltex has guided to a -$150m annualised earnings headwind from the resulting sale of the fuel network. If the transaction were not to be completed, Deutsche Bank estimates this would represent a 9% and 8% increase to 2018 and 2019 net profit estimates respectively.

Deutsche Bank makes no changes to earnings estimates at this stage and, having already factored in delays to its price target, downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target is $36.15.

Target price is $36.15 Current Price is $35.68 Difference: $0.47
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.49, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Underweight (5) -

The ACCC will oppose BP's acquisition of the Woolworths ((WOW)) petrol stations, with the primary concern appearing to be a premium price maker buying a discounter.

Morgan Stanley envisages a number of scenarios such as an appeal by BP, Woolworths selling the business to other participants or retaining its business. The broker considers the latter would be a good outcome for Caltex.

Underweight rating and $27 target retained. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $35.68 Difference: minus $8.68 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.49, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTX as Accumulate (2) -

The ACCC has opposed BP's proposed acquisition of the Woolworths ((WOW)) petrol stations as it would mean the loss of a lower-price competitor and result in a substantial lessening of competition.

For Caltex, Ord Minnett suggests a change of control is now less likely and the loss of up to -$150m is less likely to occur.

Ord Minnett had assumed transaction would occur, but with a significant number of divestments. BP and Woolworths will assess options in coming months.

Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and $35 target.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.68 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.49, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTX as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The ACCC intends to oppose the proposed acquisition by BP Australia of the Woolworths ((WOW)) retail service station network. The ACCC argues the acquisition would lessen competition in retail fuel. UBS believes the decision is largely positive for Caltex.

Caltex has previously estimated the impact of losing the Woolworths supply agreement to be around -$150m. However, cost savings previously assumed from the loss of the supply contract may not be realised if Caltex retains the network.

UBS increases valuation to reflect the increasing possibility that Caltex retains a supply agreement and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $39.10 from $35.00.

Target price is $39.10 Current Price is $35.68 Difference: $3.42
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.49, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

The company will exit the Las Vegas venture for US$254m. Credit Suisse had been anticipating this divestment.

The company will also sell Ellerston, some Sydney apartments and its Caesars investment. Moreover, Crown has stated that a potential sale of CrownBet could realise $150m in proceeds.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $12.30 from $12.00.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $12.92 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CWN as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank considers the sale of investments in Alon Las Vegas and Ellerston to be a minor positive for the company. The company has also confirmed it is in discussions regarding the sale of its 62% interest in CrownBet.

Deutsche Bank increases earnings forecasts by 8-11% to reflect the net impact of lower Crown Perth costs, higher Crown Melbourne VIP turnover and the sale of the investments.

Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $12.10 from $11.50.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $12.92 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If CWN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

The company has sold two assets for a combined $420m, including Alon Las Vegas and Ellerston in the Hunter Valley. The company has also flagged an intention to sell its $70m stake in Caesars Entertainment and discussions continue with a potential CrownBet sale.

Macquarie remains attracted to the potential cost reductions across the casino properties, particularly in Melbourne, but is cognisant of the soft operating environment that is affecting the domestic casino assets. The stock is considered fair value.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $13.18 from $12.37.

Target price is $13.18 Current Price is $12.92 Difference: $0.26
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWN as Buy (1) -

The company has sold a number of assets as part of its debt reduction strategy and continues to seek buyers for its stake in CrownBet. Crown will significantly reduce its international exposure and non-casino exposure to focus on improving its domestic casino segments.

Ord Minnett suggests around $687m of potential proceeds could move the business into a net cash position in FY18 although any subsequent sale of CrownBet will remove a key organic growth opportunity.

Buy rating retained. Target is $13.70.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $12.92 Difference: $0.78
If CWN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MYR as Neutral (3) -

Myer now expects first half sales to be materially lower than last year. The broker notes the sales outlook is deteriorating, despite money being spent in an attempt to offset. The broker lowers earnings forecasts by -17% over FY18-20 to reflect a challenging environment and increased competition.

The broker does remain positive on the company's strategy but notes balance sheet risk is now emerging. Neutral retained, target falls to 66c from 72c.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.01
If MYR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MYR as Underperform (5) -

Christmas trading has been weak and sales for the first two weeks of December declined -5%. Credit Suisse observes investment in marketing and traffic-driving initiatives appear to be largely unsuccessful in drawing customers to stores.

The broker has always been concerned that the customers' low perception of value and service were not addressed in the New Myer strategy.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.56 from $0.67.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates MYR as Hold (3) -

Sales and profit have deteriorated in recent weeks with the company reporting total sales to the end of November declining -2.3%, while the first two weeks of December are down -5%.

Deutsche Bank suspects the difficult trading conditions are likely to result in a profit shortfall which is unlikely to be recovered in the remainder of the first half.

The broker downgrades earnings estimates and now expects a -10% decline in first half normalised net profit. FY19 and FY20 forecasts are reduced by -10-11%. Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.65 from $0.75.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0
If MYR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley forecasts underlying net profit to fall -19% in the first half and -24% for FY18. Despite heavily investing in marketing Myer has reported comparable store sales were down -1.8% in November and total sales were down -5% in the first two weeks of December.

Given the continued poor performance, the broker believes the carrying value of goodwill and brand names must be called into question, particularly given that current capitalisation is considerably below FY17 book value.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.55 from $0.60.  Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYR as Lighten (4) -

Sales growth in the second quarter of FY18 and first half underlying net profit are expected to be materially lower. Sales in the first two weeks of December are down -5%.

Ord Minnett observes the external environment appears to be a challenge for all discretionary retailers with the department store noting reduced foot traffic, widespread industry discounting and subdued sentiment.

Ord Minnett finds base level earnings for Myer difficult to identify at present, although the company remains within its gearing metrics.

Lighten rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.60 from $0.65.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MYR as Sell (5) -

Myer has downgraded guidance, citing a deterioration in trading. What worries UBS is that sales in the key December trading period have deteriorated sharply. Sales in the first two weeks of December are down -5% year-on-year despite the heavy investment in marketing.

The company now expects first half net profit to fall "materially". UBS downgrades forecasts for earnings per share by -18% and continues to believe the company will struggle to sustainably grow earnings over the medium to longer term.

Sell rating. Target lowered to $0.60 from $0.65.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NSR as Hold (3) -

The company has announced a capital raising of $50m as well as the share purchase plan of $15m to fund acquisitions and strengthen its balance sheet. FY18 guidance has been reaffirmed.

The company has announced $102m of storage centre acquisition opportunities that have been settled, contracted or are under exclusive due diligence. There is also a further $35m in acquisitions under negotiation.

Morgans envisages upside risks relating to higher growth and scale benefits and downside risks including competition, lower yields and general property market moves.

Hold rating retained. Target rises to $1.60 from $1.56.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.02
If NSR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OSH as Sell (5) -

In the wake of Oil Search's investor day, the broker suggests despite the inherent risk in any new project, the Alaskan assets represent an "exceptional" acquisition. While PNG expansion timing has again slipped, it makes sense given the opportunity to optimise capex and ensure better contract pricing.

Unfortunately the stock is overpriced, hence Sell retained. Target rises to $6.07 from $5.84.

Target price is $6.07 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates OSH as Buy (1) -

Further to the investment briefing Deutsche Bank is more confident in the Alaskan North Slope diversification.

With the potential upside in exploration and appraisal acquired at an attractive entry point, the broker envisages substantial value to be created from the acquisition.

Buy and $8.05 target retained.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.62
If OSH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie's energy analyst increases forecasts for oil prices over 2018-20. The update has resulted in 13% and 2% increases to the Brent price forecasts for 2018 and 2019 respectively.

A continuation of OPEC and OPEC-aligned cuts to production are expected to result in tighter supply/demand balances over 2018.

The broker retains its preference for Oil Search and envisages de-risking opportunities over the next quarter.

Outperform rating maintained. Target price is raised to $7.90 from $7.60.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.47
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

In the wake of the investor briefing, UBS has more confidence that the Alaskan decision was well thought out, although delineation of a resource is more likely to be a 2018/19 event. Meanwhile, the timing of the PNG expansion has been delayed.

The investment timing for both these projects is not ideal, UBS believes, although the company remains confident it can fund its share of both developments. Target is $7.40. Neutral retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIQ as Neutral (3) -

Smartgroup has acquired Fleet West, its fourth acquisition in 12 months. The broker estimates 2% earnings accretion. The company has upgraded guidance on the back of synergies extracted from prior acquisitions.

Smartgroup has done an excellent job in consolidating the salary packaging industry but the broker sees organic/acquisitive growth opportunities waning due to limited remaining material targets. Target rises to $10.61 from $10.11, Neutral retained.

Target price is $10.61 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIQ as Outperform (1) -

The company will acquire Fleet West for $8m in cash and $1m in escrowed shares. Smartgroup also expects to report 2017 net profit of $64.0m, up 45%. This is ahead of Macquarie's expectations.

The broker notes the acquisition of Fleet West is complimentary to the existing salary packaging and novated lease footprint and has been acquired on attractive financial terms.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $11.20 from $9.90.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: $0.5
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIQ as Add (1) -

The company has guided to FY17 net profit up 45%, ahead of Morgans expectations. The company has also made a small bolt-on acquisition in the fleet management sector.

While the valuation appears fair for the short-term, Morgans believes the outlook is strong. Strong cash flow supports further scale and scope for acquisitions. The broker retains an Add rating and raises the target to $11.19 from $9.80.

Target price is $11.19 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: $0.49
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Relative board pricing appears to be the issue, the broker notes, rather than concentration of sites, in the knock-back of the BP deal. If it does not go ahead Woolworths will receive a break fee, but only enough to cover costs.

And there will be no proceeds for balance sheet repair, and thus little likelihood of a capital return in the near future, the broker warns. An appeal can nevertheless be lodged or Woolies can sell to someone else, but these things will take time.

Reincorporating petrol earnings leads to a target increase to $27.70 from $27.20, Neutral retained.

Target price is $27.70 Current Price is $27.06 Difference: $0.64
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.32, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WOW as Buy (1) -

The ACCC has announced it will oppose BP's proposed acquisition of Woolworths' service stations because it is likely to substantially lessen competition in the retail supply of fuel.

Deutsche Bank observes Woolworths does not need this deal as badly as it did a year ago, because the balance sheet is in much better shape and operations have improved. However, keeping the petrol business means there will not be excess capital to return.

Central to the broker's investment thesis for Woolworths is the turnaround in the supermarket amid continued momentum.

The broker retains a Buy rating with a $29 target.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.06 Difference: $1.94
If WOW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.32, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Underperform (5) -

The ACCC intends to oppose the acquisition of Woolworths petrol service stations by BP. The consumer regulator believes the acquisition is likely to substantially lessen competition in the supply of retail fuel.

Woolworths was noted as a vigourous and effective competitor and fuel prices are expected to increase at Woolworths sites under BP. Additionally, the ACCC concerns are not addressed by the site divestments proposed by BP.

Macquarie believes the announcement is likely to raise questions over the sustainability of funding the Woolworths store refurbishment program. Despite a strong start to FY18 trading the broker has not found evidence of the sales performance and comparables will only get harder to cycle.

Underperform rating. Target is raised to $26.17 from $25.39.

Target price is $26.17 Current Price is $27.06 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.32, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Underweight (5) -

The decision by the ACCC to oppose the BP acquisition of the Woolworths petrol stations limits further capital management, Morgan Stanley suggests.

The broker believes BP/Woolworths will appeal this decision in time. Other interested parties may emerge but, with less competitive tension, the assets are likely to be worth less. The broker considers Woolworths expensive, despite the recent improvements to operating performance.

Underweight, Cautious industry view and $22 price target.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $27.06 Difference: minus $5.06 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.32, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOW as Reduce (5) -

The ACCC has announced its opposition to the proposed acquisition of the Woolworths fuel business by BP. The regulator has noted that BP prices are significantly higher on average than Woolworths prices in major capitals.

Morgans believe there was always a question around the deal, given the amount of overlapping sites, as well as BP being a premium-price fuel retailer. The broker suggests any future deal with an existing major fuel retailer is likely to face similar ACCC concerns.

Reduce rating maintained. Target is reduced to $22.44 from $22.66.

Target price is $22.44 Current Price is $27.06 Difference: minus $4.62 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.32, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Buy (1) -

The ACCC will oppose BP's acquisition of the Woolworths service stations on the basis it will probably substantially lessen competition in the retail supply of fuel. UBS had not incorporated the fuel sale, given the deal was pending regulatory approval.

Hence, the broker suspects the news will drive modest consensus upgrades given some had included the divestment in forecasts.

The broker believes Woolworths has the option to either challenge the decision, seek alternative buyers or retain the fuel business, with the latter the most likely outcome.

Buy retained. Target is $28.90.

Target price is $28.90 Current Price is $27.06 Difference: $1.84
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.32, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources