Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Buy (1) -

A strong December quarter for Aussie Broadband, with customer subscriptions up 45% year-on-year to an almost 500,000 subscriber pool. Ord Minnett highlights an expected rise in second half profit margins as scale and leverage benefits of a larger customer base appear. 

The company's fibre roll-out also remains on track for completion by early June, with network cost savings to benefit from the June quarter onwards. Operating costs growth has driven a -6% and -8% downgrade to FY22 and FY23 earnings.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.61 from $5.91. 

Target price is $5.61 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $1.23
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AKE as Neutral (3) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

THe broker has left its Neutral rating and $11.20 price target unchanged for Allkem.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $9.63 Difference: $1.57
If AKE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.64, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

The announcement that Aristocrat Leisure was unsuccessful in its bid for Playtech has surprised Credit Suisse, but the company remains committed to exploring options for online real money gaming and has indicated it is building its own remote gaming server. 

Credit Suisse's target price did not incorporate the acquisition, but a positive outcome could have added $4.00 to the share price. The online real money gaming market could still represent US$90-135m to Aristocrat Leisure over three years given its market share potential. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $49.00 are retained. 

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $41.29 Difference: $7.71
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.73, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Amcor's December-quarter result proved a mixed bag, roughly meeting consensus forecasts on earnings but outpacing on revenue, thanks to a strong performance in Flexibles, which more than nullified supply chain imposts.

Management reiterated guidance and announced an increase in the share buyback to $600m from $400m.

Citi is cautious, expecting costs will continue to weigh throughout FY22.

Neutral rating retained. Target price is $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: minus $3.36 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Continuing to work towards its 10-15% shareholder return promise, Amcor increased its share repurchase program to US$600 from US$400. Credit Suisse notes this supports earnings per share growth in FY23, but beyond this acquisition is necessary for returns targets.

Positively, the company suggests supply chain and raw material pressures should be subsiding over the coming quarter and is guiding to neutral rather than positive price cost, supporting near-term earnings. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $17.50 from $17.20 on an improved Australian dollar. 

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $1.14
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points out Amcor's operating cash flow is always seasonally weaker in the 1H though this time was exacerbated by higher raw material costs and an inventory build in the Rigids segment. 

While 1H underlying profit was modestly below the broker's estimate, the analyst feels the company is managing raw material and supply chain pressures well. It's considered important that free cash guidance was maintained.

The Outperform rating is maintained, while the target price slips to $18.14 from $18.24.

Target price is $18.14 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $1.78
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Overweight (1) -

Amcor reported December quarter earnings growth of 3% year on year, -6% below Morgan Stanley's forecast. Supply chain and raw materials challenges have continued to impact both Rigids and Flexibles in the quarter as expected.

But just a bit more than the broker expected. Nevertheless, FY guidance was maintained and the buyback was increased by US$200m. The broker still sees this as a resilient result in challenging markets.

The broker highlights defensiveness, cash flow, yield and capital management in retaining Overweight. Target falls to $18.50 from $19.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $2.14
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMC as Add (1) -

Amcor's 1H result was slightly below Morgans expectations with a -4% miss on underlying earnings (EBIT) and a -1% miss on underlying EPS. The Add rating is maintained and the target price falls to $18.35 from $18.90.

Both Flexibles and Rigid Plastics margins were lower, due to ongoing issues around raw materials, transport and energy, though there was some improvement in the 2Q, points out the analyst. 

In a good sign for upcoming volume growth, according to the broker, group volumes increased 1% in the half (Flexibles volumes were flat while Rigid Packaging were up 3%). Commentary suggests volumes would have been 1-2% higher if not for supply chain constraints.

Target price is $18.35 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $1.99
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Amcor's December-half result fell -1% shy of consensus, the company managing a 9% jump in EPS in a tough supply environment, notes UBS.

Management reiterates guidance for EPS growth between 7% and 11% for FY22. UBS pegs consensus forecasts at 8%.

Free cash flow of US41.1bn to US$1.2bn was maintained, allowing an upgrade to the FY22 share buyback to US$600m from US$400m.

UBS retains a Buy rating, appreciating the company's defensive profile, scale, earnings and cash flow. Target price inches up to $19 from $18.93.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $2.64
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.50, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie takes a lead from the December quarter performance of US banks, which suggests downside risk to Australian bank earnings from lower markets income in the first half of 2022.

On a relative basis, the broker sees a bigger risk for ANZ Bank and estimates around -$100-200m downside risk to the bank's markets income. It's thought too early to rebase the forecast for the full year based only on one quarter of US trading.

The Outperform rating and $30.50 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $26.89 Difference: $3.61
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Re-initiation of coverage with a Buy rating (1) -

UBS resumes coverage of ANZ Banking Group with a Buy rating and $30 target price (implying a 15% total shareholder return), as part of the broker's initiation of coverage on the banking sector.

UBS considers ANZ to be relatively inexpensive but expects the chances of a mortgage turnaround are limited, recent missteps having imposed a big opportunity cost.

The broker expects the Institutional Banking platform provides strong opportunities for growth, which could drive revenue from payments, custody and trade, and that ANZ could surprise with a strong global banking performance.

FNArena's sources suggest it has been extremely active in the sustainability-linked lending arena. 

The big question remains can the Australian banks' 40% valuation premium to global peers be maintained, and UBS says the higher margin profile on stable assets and predictability suggest that they can - not to mention their extremely limited credit risk supported by legislation.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.89 Difference: $3.11
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.25, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APX as Buy (1) -

Meta/Facebook's AI team announcement of the first high-performance self-supervised algorithm has been weighing on Appen's share price, but Citi's investigation suggests there is no imminent threat - the runway being at least three years.

Self-supervised algorithms represent a threat to Appen's data collection and data preparation, but is less so to Appen's Relevance work which is less automated, says the broker.

Citi expects Appen will outmaneouvre the AI issue, shifting to more complex work, which offers a growth opportunity in expanding types of data.

Buy rating retained. Target price $14.80.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $10.08 Difference: $4.72
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting upside of 29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Buy (1) -

Citi spies a conflict between ESG and defence investing, and expects governments have recognised the danger (particularly in the face of rising tension in Europe) of defence stocks attracting lower ESG ratings and are likely to take steps to resolve it.

Defence is likely to be granted an ESG rating (probably an S rating) based on its contribution to protecting democratic institutions, facilitating global trade and resolving conflicts, says Citi.

Citi's research shows defence stocks fairly extremely poorly in ESG ratings, even compared to stocks such as oil, tobacco and mining. 

The broker reports that the French National Assembly has attracted cross-party support in bringing a resolution to the European Union with a compelling case to recognise European Defense companies within the EU Social Taxonomy (which is still in formation).

Meanwhile, defense budgets are growing to counter global tensions.

Citi expects Austal will benefit from this trend and is pitching for naval shipbuilding orders from several governments, and a contract with the US Coast Guard worth $12bn is expected to be announced in March.

Buy rating and $3.09 target price retained.

Target price is $3.09 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.97
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.62, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi has resumed coverage of BHP post restriction and unfication with a Neutral rating and a $42 target price, both of which are under review.

The broker considers the stock to be fairly valued.

BHP updated production guidance. Coal forecasts were downgraded to reflect weather and labour constraints, and copper production was orienting to the low end of guidance, says Citi.

Cost guidance was steady.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $45.64 Difference: minus $3.64 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.32, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

BHP's price target has moved to $42 from $37. Neutral.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $45.64 Difference: minus $3.64 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.32, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Following an update from Boss Energy on exploration drilling at the Honeymoon uranium project, Macquarie estimates upside potential to both the production rate and mine life.

According to the analyst, Honeymoon is accelerating towards a final investment decision (FID), with front-end engineering work
more than 50% complete. The Outperform rating and $3 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.88
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie takes a lead from the December quarter performance of US banks, which suggests downside risk to Australian bank earnings from lower markets income in the first half of 2022.

The analyst cautions it is difficult to estimate Commonwealth Bank of Australia's markets income, given disclosure is lacking relative to peers. The Underperform rating and $88.50 target price are maintained.

It's thought too early to re-base the forecast for the full year based only on one quarter of US trading, explains the broker.

Target price is $88.50 Current Price is $94.74 Difference: minus $6.24 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $89.21, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Re-initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS resumes coverage of Commonwealth Bank of Australia with a Neutral rating and $95 target price, as part of the broker's initiation of coverage on the banking sector.

UBS notes the target price implies a total shareholder return of 6% and that the bank enjoys an operational momentum relative to peers that yields it a 300% return-on-equity advantage.

The broker notes retail banking accounts for roughly 50% of profit, and that the bank's bottom line benefits strongly from top-line revenue growth in the retail division.

UBS expects the bank's net interest rate margins should start rising from early mid year and continue to 2026, thanks to its platform and technology and rising interest rates, although consensus forecasts suggest the opposite.

The big question remains can the Australian banks' 40% valuation premium to global peers be maintained, and UBS says the higher margin profile on stable assets and predictability suggest that they can - not to mention their extremely limited credit risk supported by legislation.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $94.74 Difference: $0.26
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $89.21, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSL as No Rating (-1) -

CSL is facing increased risk to margin recovery in the current financial year given the spread of the omicron variant impacted on plasma collections in December and January, but Credit Suisse believes an earnings downgrade at the upcoming first half results is unlikely.

While seasonally lower collections are expected in February and March, the broker notes a 25% collection centre footprint increase should provide a 6% benefit to collections in the first half. Cost pressures likely to impact on Behring's margins over the next year.

Due to research restrictions Credit Suisse has not provided a rating or target price. 

Current Price is $262.42. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $321.54, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Deterra Royalties' price target has remained unchanged at $4.20. Neutral.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Evolution Mining's rating remains on Neutral while the price target moves to $3.65 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.03
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.21, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Price target for Fortescue Metals has risen to $16.70 from $14.90. Sell.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $20.46 Difference: minus $3.76 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.49, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

G8 Education's last trading update in December surprised Macquarie positively. The company has been supported by $21m of
government funding during lockdowns, and is considered to have turned around the operating performance.

Industry feedback on lagging occupancy levels suggests the omicron variant will contribute to weaker margins in early FY22, cautions the analyst. The target price rises to $1.10 from $1.05 and the Neutral rating is maintained.

 

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifts its target price for Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia to $3.70 from $3.25 following a 4Q trading update showing net claims materially below the broker's estimate. This was partially offset by lower investment income.

While acknowledging relatively high multiples, the analyst sees potential for ongoing excess capital to be returned to shareholders and maintains its Outperform rating.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $1.12
If GMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Hold (3) -

In a broad sector update, Ord Minnett sums up various supportive factors and risks for ASX-listed funds managers. Weak fund performances are among the key risks identified, as they lead to fund outflows.

Increased competition, also from passive instruments, is considered a potential stumbling block too.

Though the report seems to suggest that Magellan Financial shares now seem undervalued, irrespective of the many challenges and headwinds, the rating has remained on Hold. Price target tumbles to $19.40 from $36.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $19.95 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.22, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Price target for Mineral Resources shifts to $60 from $54.15.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $58.65 Difference: $1.35
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.34, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Ahead of Macquarie Group's 2022 operational briefing, Ord Minnett expects the company to have benefited from commodity pricing in the third quarter, while persisting high merger and acquisition levels in the third quarter should support continued elevated advisory income.

Less positively, Ord Minnett notes non-recurring income from the partial sale of Nuix in the third quarter of FY21 is likely to impact on comparable income metrics. Elsewhere recent US investment banking results have been a drag on the company's share price.

The Accumulate rating and target price of $214.00 are retained.

Target price is $214.00 Current Price is $192.43 Difference: $21.57
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $216.00, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie takes a lead from the December quarter performance of US banks, which suggests downside risk to Australian bank earnings from lower markets income in the first half of 2022.

On a relative basis, the broker sees a lesser risk for National Australia Bank. It's thought too early to rebase the forecast for the full year based only on one quarter of US trading.

The analyst considers its expectations for NAB are conservative, even in the context of the challenging US bank trends.

The Outperform rating and $31.50 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $27.87 Difference: $3.63
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.86, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Re-initiation of coverage with a Buy rating. (1) -

UBS resumes coverage of National Australia Bank with a Buy rating and $30.50 target price (implying a 12% return), as part of the broker's initiation of coverage on the banking sector.

UBS expects the bank will post an earnings recovery driven by above-market growth in new business and widening net interest margins.

The broker predicts a turnaround in the business banking division, which has been losing market share in the past two years, and that the bank's expanding retail business should return better earnings as interest rates rise, and inorganic growth could be on the horizon, delivering higher margins and faster growing profits.

The big question remains can the Australian banks' 40% valuation premium to global peers be maintained, and UBS says the higher margin profile on stable assets and predictability suggest that they can - not to mention their extremely limited credit risk supported by legislation.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $27.87 Difference: $2.63
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.86, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Price target for Newcrest Mining has slightly improved, to $26.50 from $26.25. Buy.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $22.51 Difference: $3.99
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.56, suggesting upside of 27.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Buy (1) -

Resilience in the free-to-air advertising market and an ability to capture continuing growth in digital platforms offers benefit to the free-to-air media segment according to Ord Minnett. 

The broker prefers Nine Entertainment to peer Seven West Media ((SWM)) given the company's greater digital exposure through its Stan streaming platform. The broker expects exposure to Domain Group ((DHG)) has been a drag on share price performance.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.60 are retained. 

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.88
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Price target ($11.20) and rating (Buy) have remained intact for Northern Star Resources.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $2.6
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.01, suggesting upside of 41.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Price target for OZ Minerals has slightly increased to $25.90 from $25.20. Neutral.

Target price is $25.90 Current Price is $24.95 Difference: $0.95
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.79, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDL as Buy (1) -

In a broad sector update, Ord Minnett sums up various supportive factors and risks for ASX-listed funds managers. Weak fund performances are among the key risks identified, as they lead to fund outflows.

Increased competition, also from passive instruments, is considered a potential stumbling block too.

Pendal Group is seen as undervalued and thus retains its Buy rating with a $5.50 price target (down from $8.50 prior).

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.31
If PDL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) -

Following a period of research restriction on Pinnacle Investment Management Group, Macquarie resumes with an Outperform rating. A  target price of $16.89 is set, after allowing for the recent equity raise.

Underlying EPS for the 1H was around 0.5% ahead of the the broker's expectation. The 2H outlook is considered to be supported by a large funds under management (FUM) starting point and a higher average fee mix.

An outperform rating is maintained, with Macquarie noting $135m on hand to fund future opportunities.

Target price is $16.89 Current Price is $11.74 Difference: $5.15
If PNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.11, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNI as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades its rating for Pinnacle Investment Management Group to Add from Hold. It's thought there's structural growth within the affiliate base (maturing of performing funds), and from the business model (new managers, offshore expansion).

The group's 1H headline result beat the broker's forecast by around 5% and the underlying result by circa 9%.  Better-than-expected operating leverage was achieved at both the group and affiliate level.

While volatility from the equity market has the potential to disrupt flows momentum, notes the analyst, non-equity funds are experiencing solid retail inflows. The target price falls to $14.45 from $15.80.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $11.74 Difference: $2.71
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.11, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPT as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

In a broad sector update, Ord Minnett sums up various supportive factors and risks for ASX-listed funds managers. Weak fund performances are among the key risks identified, as they lead to fund outflows.

Increased competition, also from passive instruments, is considered a potential stumbling block too.

Perpetual has been upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. New price target of $36.60 compares with $39.50 previously.

Target price is $36.60 Current Price is $34.35 Difference: $2.25
If PPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.10, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PTM as Hold (3) -

In a broad sector update, Ord Minnett sums up various supportive factors and risks for ASX-listed funds managers. Weak fund performances are among the key risks identified, as they lead to fund outflows.

Increased competition, also from passive instruments, is considered a potential stumbling block too.

Platinum Asset Management might see a return of investor favour on the back of a revival of the value trade, suggests the report. Hold rating retained. Target $2.60 (was $3.60).

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.02
If PTM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Rio Tinto owns 86.3% of the Ranger uranium mine in the Northern Territory, through its equity stake in Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)). The latter announced a material increase in rehabilitation costs for the mine.

Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating for Rio Tinto after earnings forecast are lowered by less than -1% on the increased costs. The $130 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $111.43 Difference: $18.57
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $108.29, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Rio Tinto's price target has gone up to $90 from $80. Sell.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $111.43 Difference: minus $21.43 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $108.29, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Buy rating retained for South32 while the price target improved to $5 from $4.10.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $1.07
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised up most price forecasts for commodities. No changes in ratings have occurred as a result, but plenty to forecasts.

Sandfire Resources' price target has risen to $8.30 from $7.95. Buy.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.83 Difference: $1.47
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SWM as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Resilience in the free-to-air advertising market and an ability to capture continuing growth in digital platforms offers benefit to the free-to-air media segment according to Ord Minnett. 

Although the broker has noted a preference for Nine Entertainment ((NEC)) over Seven West Media, it does like that the recent acquisition of PRT Company ((PRT)) offers greater reach for its 7plus on-demand service. 

The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy and the target price of $0.70 is retained. 

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.02
If SWM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.83, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra Corp has detailed a $1.4-1.6bn infrastructure investment plan for two fibre network projects that Credit Suisse notes could improve the company's valuation by as much as 10 cents per share. 

Understood to be in addition to business-as-usual capital expenditure, and therefore a 10% increase to near-term spending, Credit Suisse notes a potential $200m earnings contribution and internal rate of return in the mid-teens.

Expenditure will be deployed over the next five years as the company builds and manages Viasat's Australian fibre networks and necessary infrastructure, and develops a 20,000km inner-city extension to its existing fibre network. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.50 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.52
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Add (1) -

Morgans explains that Telstra has effectively increased its capex guidance for the next five years by committing to around -$1.5bn of capex to build two major infrastructure projects.

The analyst cautions that other carriers are also aggressively pursuing similar projects, which could crimp the company's expectation for a mid-teen internal rate of return (IRR) on the combined spend.

Morgans makes immaterial EPS forecast changes. The target price rises to $4.56 from $4.55 and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $4.56 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.58
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Telstra Corp has announced its participation in two sizeable infrastructure projects requiring capital expenditure of $1.4-1.6bn over five years, with Ord Minnett highlighting the company expects a $200m operating earnings return from FY26. 

While the announcement adds only 2% value accretion to Ord Minnett's outlook, the broker notes it could suggest further long-term growth opportunities. The company expects the projects will deliver mid-teen internal rates of return over an expected nine-year payback life. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.90 from $4.85.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.92
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TNE as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Despite widespread equity weakness in the software sector from rising interest rates, Macquarie upgrades its rating for Technology One to Neutral from Underperform, with an $11.00 target.

The company's quality should lend support and the share price is now at levels that equates to the the analyst's valuation. The broker likes the company's balance sheet, quality customer base and sticky long-term contracts.

Government and Education sectors account for more than 75% of revenue, points out Macquarie.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.86 Difference: $0.14
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.16, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

At a first glance, Westpac's December-quarter cash earnings outpaced consensus estimates by 13% and Citi's forecasts by 7%, thanks to a strong performance from Treasury & Markets which delivered a $200m swing.

On the flipside, cost reduction outpaced Citi by 3%, an outcome the broker expects guides to falling costs throughout FY22.

In other areas, Citi reports revenue and net interest margin broadly met expectations. The bank lowered guidance for net interest margins but this was in line with the broker's forecast.

Asset quality appeared good, albeit Westpac taking a conservative approach to provisions. 

Citi expects the result will be well received. Buy rating retained. Target price steady at $27.00.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $20.60 Difference: $6.4
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie takes a lead from the December quarter performance of US banks, which suggests downside risk to Australian bank earnings from lower markets income in the first half of 2022.

On balance, the broker sees some further downside to its Westpac Bank’s markets income expectations. It's thought too early to re-base the forecast for the full year based only on one quarter of US trading.

The Neutral rating and $23 target price are maintained.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.60 Difference: $2.4
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Buy (1) -

In a quick response to today's trading update, UBS analysts observe Westpac performed better on costs, but weaker on net interest margin (NIM). Core earnings are recovering and the bank has made conservative provisions, says thr broker.

UBS was positioned low versus peers and Westpac's financial result has surprised both. UBS notes the earnings base for the second half is a lot lower.

Buy. Target $25.

Earlier, UBS had resumed coverage as part of the broker's re-initiation of coverage on the banking sector - implying a total return of 27%. The bank is UBS's top sector pick.

The broker notes the bank is trading at a big discount to peers and and believes further downside is limited, compensating for perceived risks. 

UBS notes the core retail franchise is solid and should benefit from rising interest rates and the resulting easing of revenue pressure. Business Banking accounts for 50% of earnings, and UBS expects this will anchor an earnings recovery and thinks the market underestimates the bank's interest-rate sensitivity.

The big question remains can the Australian banks' 40% valuation premium to global peers be maintained, and UBS says the higher margin profile on stable assets and predictability suggest that they can - not to mention their extremely limited credit risk supported by legislation.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.60 Difference: $4.4
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources