Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for Atlantic Lithium falls to 56c from 65c and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.17
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGY as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for Argosy Minerals falls to 14c from 18c and the Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.005
If AGY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AKE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for Allkem falls to $12 from $17 and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.41 Difference: $1.59
If AKE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.51, suggesting upside of 48.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

A third month of double-digit growth signals better conditions for rate futures trading, suggests Morgan Stanley.

The broker's intra-month tracking of December 2023 rate futures shows volumes are up 31% year-on-year.

Assuming this reflects total futures volumes this implies volumes are up 19% year-on-year in H1, compared to Morgan Stanley's 12.5% forecast.

The $53.50 target and Underweight rating are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $53.50 Current Price is $63.00 Difference: minus $9.5 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $60.62, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes interest rate movements will be the most significant catalyst for gold prices in 2024 and 2025.

The analysts point out the long-term relationship between gold and interest rates implies a -100bps drop in US 10-year real rates results in an 11% gold price rally.

In adapting to the last macroeconomic settings, the broker's US dollar gold price forecasts for 2024-26 rise by 8%, 18% and 19%, respectively.

Ramelius Resources is Shaw's suggested core holding for investors. Should the gold price remain close to A$3,000/oz record margins in FY24 should be achieved.

The company finished September with $10m in cash leaving it well funded to complete future work programs, highlights the analyst.

The broker's 6c target and Buy, High Risk rating for Antipa Minerals is unchanged.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.043
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 253% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes interest rate movements will be the most significant catalyst for gold prices in 2024 and 2025.

The analysts point out the long-term relationship between gold and interest rates implies a -100bps drop in US 10-year real rates results in an 11% gold price rally.

In adapting to the last macroeconomic settings, the broker's US dollar gold price forecasts for 2024-26 rise by 8%, 18% and 19%, respectively.

Ramelius Resources is Shaw's suggested core holding for investors. Should the gold price remain close to A$3,000/oz record margins in FY24 should be achieved.

It is felt there is a pathway to around 150koz of gold production per year in West Australia via the Paulsens, Kal East and Coyote deposits.

The broker's target for Black Cat Syndicate increases to 74c from 49c and the Buy, High Risk rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.49
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 196% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Following a meeting with management at Carsales, Citi sees upside risk to 1H FY24 consensus revenue and earnings (EBITDA) growth forecasts, driven by operations in Brazil.

The broker expects Brazil to positively surprise due to both regional expansion and yield growth, while earnings margins should rise from greater profitability for CAR10/Loop.

The analysts feel yield growth will be driven by new Depth products than price in FY25, with management looking to expand its Depth/premium products in Trader Interactive.

The Buy rating and $29.65 target are unchanged.

This research was released by Citi on 20 Dec 2023.

Target price is $29.65 Current Price is $30.76 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.86, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The broker downgrades its rating for Core Lithium to Neutral from Outperform and the target falls to 32c from 60c.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DSE as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates research coverage on Dropsuite with a Buy rating and 33c target. The company provides cloud-based backup and archiving for businesses.

The broker's view is supported by multiple structural tailwinds for cloud backup, a best-in-class product and go-to-market strategy, along with a history of prudent and profitable growth.

In an overreaction, according to the analysts, shares in Dropsuite were sold-off following Microsoft’s announcement of its Syntex Backup and Archive product. It's felt investors now have an attractive entry point for a mult-year growth story.

With $25m of funding available, the company also has options regarding M&A, in Ord Minnett's view.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.08
If DSE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Following a period of research restriction on Evolution Mining, Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating (up from Underperform) and a target of $4.20, up from $3.50.

Evolution has acquired an 80% interest in Northparkes, which the broker describes as a long-life copper-gold mine. The cost will be around $608m in cash, with a copper-price-linked contingent payment of up to $114m.

The deal was funded by a $525m institutional placement and a new $200m five-year debt facility.

The analyst highlights Evolution's copper revenue exposure will be boosted to circa 30% from 20%, and the broker assumes a 34-year mine life.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.32
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The broker downgrades its rating for Global Lithium Resources to Neutral from Outperform and the target falls to $1.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.06
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for Galan Lithium falls to $1.20 from $1.40 and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.64
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for IGO falls to $10 from $15 and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $0.92
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Add (1) -

Morgans has begun to closely monitor the performance of key Australian national lottery games like Oz Lotto and Powerball to estimate jackpot revenue.

Jackpots larger than $15m are a key focus for the broker as they are key growth drivers for Lottery Corp and Jumbo Interactive, which come under Morgans research coverage.

The analyst lowers FY24 earnings (EBITA) estimates for both these companies by -4% in the expectation of lower values per draw, despite an increased number of jackpots.

The target for Jumbo Interactive falls to $16.00 from $16.50. Add.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.94 Difference: $2.06
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.59, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Sales for the four months to November for KMD Brands have fallen by -12.5% versus the previous corresponding period, compared to Macquarie's forecast for a -6.2% drop for all of the 1H.

Sales and earnings (EBITDA) were also a material miss against the consensus estimate, and together with lower assumed sales and margins drive Macquarie's FY24/25 EPS forecasts down -52.3% and -34.3% respectively.

These negatives are offsetting an improved gross margin percentage and continued cost out control.

Target falls to 62c from 70c. The broker is cautious on tough comparisons and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KMD as Equal-weight (3) -

The trading update by KMD Brands for the period August 1 to November 30 was softer than Morgan Stanley anticipated across all brands. Sales declined by -12.5% year-on-year compared to the consensus estimate for a fall of -2%, on weaker customer spending.

Sales for Kathmandu, Rip Curl and Oboz fell by -21.6%, -5.7% and -18.2%, respectively.

Sales were impacted by weak consumer sentiment (Kathmandu), explains the analyst, and a weaker wholesale channel (Rip Curl and Oboz).

Equal-weight. Target 80c. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.105
If KMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

After a further review of forecasts following Lendlease’s sale of its Communities business, Morgan Stanley raises its FY24 profit forecast by 14.7%.

The target rises to $8.25 from $7.95 and the Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.33 Difference: $0.92
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The broker downgrades its rating for Leo Lithium to Neutral from Outperform to reflect the weaker lithium price forecasts, along with a weakened earnings outlook and increased jurisdiction risks. The target is reduced to 50c from $1.00.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If LLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The broker downgrades its rating for Liontown Resources to Neutral from Outperform and the target falls to $1.60 from $2.70.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for Mineral Resources falls to $76 from $85 and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $76.00 Current Price is $68.30 Difference: $7.7
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.79, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MZZ as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes interest rate movements will be the most significant catalyst for gold prices in 2024 and 2025.

The analysts point out the long-term relationship between gold and interest rates implies a -100bps drop in US 10-year real rates results in an 11% gold price rally.

In adapting to the last macroeconomic settings, the broker's US dollar gold price forecasts for 2024-26 rise by 8%, 18% and 19%, respectively.

Ramelius Resources is Shaw's suggested core holding for investors. Should the gold price remain close to A$3,000/oz record margins in FY24 should be achieved.

The broker's target for Matador Mining is derived from peer group comparative multiples, and falls to 19c from 32c The Buy, High Risk rating is unchanged.

A recent scoping study highlights to Shaw the Cape Ray project in Newfoundland, Canada is one of the highest grade, undeveloped open pit projects globally.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.143
If MZZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 304% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Citi forecasts the acquisition of Terra Insights by Orica for $561m will boost EPS by around 2% in FY25, the first full year of ownership. The transaction will be funded from cash and undrawn bank debt.

The acquisition should complement and build out Orica's Digital Solutions business, in the broker's opinion. Terra Insights provides sensors/software to the mining and infrastructure sector.

Explosives demand/price still hold the key for Orica's outlook, according to Citi. Positive momentum is expected for both.

The Buy rating and target price of $17.00 are retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.21 Difference: $0.79
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

In a transaction highly complementary to its Ground Probe business, according to Macquarie, Orica will acquire Terra Insights for around $561m.

Terra Insights is a mining sensor, software and data company. The range of sensors are capable of monitoring geotechnical, structural, and seismic activity, explains the broker.

Separately, management noted the first two months of FY24 delivered strong results, and continued momentum from the 2H of FY23.

Target rises to $17.97 from $17.70 and Outperform retained.

Target price is $17.97 Current Price is $16.21 Difference: $1.76
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

While Morgan Stanley notes Orica’s acquisition of Terra Insights is in line with the company’s strategy, the around $560m acquisition price appears full. Terra Insights is an end-to-end sensors, software and data delivery technology platform company.

The transaction will be paid for out of existing cash reserves and committed undrawn bank debt facilities.

Management expects the acquisition will be EPS accretive by FY25, and left FY24 EBIT guidance unchanged, noting positive momentum had continued into the first two months of FY24.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating. Target $19.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $16.21 Difference: $3.29
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.77, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for Piedmont Lithium falls to 60c from $1.40 and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.15
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

Pilbara Minerals has significant earnings leverage to lithium prices movements, highlights the broker. The target is reduced to $4.40 from $7.10 and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.55
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The broker's Outperform rating and target price of $2.10 are retained for Patriot Battery Metals.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.99
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXA as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans downgrades its rating for Pexa Group to Hold from Add and lowers its target to $11.65 from $13.36 following softer FY24 guidance, and after allowing for the acquisition of Smoove.

The trading update revealed only modest Q2 transaction growth for PEXA Exchange, observes the broker, while overall re-mortgage activity in the International division remains weak.

Moreover, the economic backdrop is weighing upon Digital Growth revenues due to a lengthening sales cycle, explains the analyst.

More positively, 1H revenue guidance for the Core Exchange was largely in line with the consensus estimate, notes Morgans, while FY24 Exchange earnings (EBITFA) margin guidance was reaffirmed.

Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $10.92 Difference: $0.73
If PXA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.26, suggesting upside of 33.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

After a recent meeting with management at REA Group, Citi still expects a strong Q2 driven by the Residential business. Benefits are expected from the unwinding of deferrals from Q1, a pick-up in listing volumes, strong yield growth and geographic-mix.

These benefits could be tempered by strong growth in Audience Maximiser and higher bonus/commission payments, explains the broker, which may create upside risk to cost growth guidance.

The $159 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This summary is based on research released by Citi on 20 Dec 2023.

Target price is $159.00 Current Price is $176.43 Difference: minus $17.43 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $157.50, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes interest rate movements will be the most significant catalyst for gold prices in 2024 and 2025.

The analysts point out the long-term relationship between gold and interest rates implies a -100bps drop in US 10-year real rates results in an 11% gold price rally.

In adapting to the last macroeconomic settings, the broker's US dollar gold price forecasts for 2024-26 rise by 8%, 18% and 19%, respectively.

Ramelius Resources is Shaw's suggested core holding for investors. Should the gold price remain close to A$3,000/oz record margins in FY24 should be achieved.

Costs should materially decrease through 2024 as higher grade ore from the Penny mine is delivered as it continues to ramp-up, explains the analyst.

The target rises to $2.00 from $1.69. Buy, High Risk.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.285
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

After a further review of Stockland's forecasts following the purchase of Lendlease’s Communities business, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $4.70 from $4.45 and retains the Overweight rating and In-Line Industry view.

The broker raises its residential settlements forecast by 2500 lots to account for the acquisition. It's believed the deal will be around 4.5% accretive.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.23
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners believes interest rate movements will be the most significant catalyst for gold prices in 2024 and 2025.

The analysts point out the long-term relationship between gold and interest rates implies a -100bps drop in US 10-year real rates results in an 11% gold price rally.

In adapting to the last macroeconomic settings, the broker's US dollar gold price forecasts for 2024-26 rise by 8%, 18% and 19%, respectively.

Ramelius Resources is Shaw's suggested core holding for investors. Should the gold price remain close to A$3,000/oz record margins in FY24 should be achieved.

Saturn is focused on the Apollo Hill Gold project in the Eastern Goldfields, which could become a centralised processing hub for a
camp-scale gold province in the region, explains the analyst.

The 44c target and Buy, High Risk rating for Saturn Metals are unchanged.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.26
If STN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 144% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie forecasts the lithium market will remain in surplus for several years, before returning to deficit from 2027 as demand growth progressively outpaces supply growth.

Based on this outlook, the broker's lithium price forecasts fall in the short-to-mid term and increase over 2029-30, while long-term price estimates are maintained.

Pilbara Minerals is Macquarie's preferred producer, with the strongest balance sheet from among the broker's research coverage, while Patriot Battery Metals offers significant exploration upside.

The target price for Sayona Mining falls to 9c from 17c and the Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.017
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLC as Add (1) -

Morgans has begun to closely monitor the performance of key Australian national lottery games like Oz Lotto and Powerball to estimate jackpot revenue.

Jackpots larger than $15m are a key focus for the broker as they are key growth drivers for Lottery Corp and Jumbo Interactive, which come under Morgans research coverage.

The analyst lowers FY24 earnings (EBITA) estimates for both these companies by -4% in the expectation of lower values per draw, despite an increased number of jackpots.

The target for Lottery Corp falls to $5.40 from $5.50. Add.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.55
If TLC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources