Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

UBS attended Alcoa's WA site visit to its bauxite mine, Huntley, and its Pinjarra refinery. The broker notes the rehabilitation work is a positive in the context of extending the mine life in the Darling Ranges.

The analyst explains successful approvals would lead to higher alumina grades, increased aluminium production, and lower costs over the medium to longer term.

Neutral rating. Target price $50.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $45.44 Difference: $4.56
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Citi observes April traffic was softer, with overall traffic rising by 1% on a year earlier and international up 3% over a similar period for Auckland International Airport.

Lower seat capacity is noted by the broker as the reason for a slip in domestic passengers by -1% on the 2024 period and reduced load factors.

International travel by New Zealanders lifted 5% on the previous year, with travel by Australian nationals up 12% and US nationals rising 13%, Citi details.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates slightly due to the lower domestic passenger numbers but remains Buy rated. Target price slips to NZ$9.20 from NZ$9.80.

Current Price is $7.38. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport reported a 5% rise in international passenger volumes (ex-transit) in April, observes Macquarie, rebounding from a -2.3% decline in March due to Easter timing.

The broker notes domestic volumes remained soft, down -2%, with load factors falling 1.5ppts to 84% and seat capacity down -1% year-on-year.

Passenger volumes for the first four months of H2 remain below the levels implied by FY25 profit guidance of NZ$290m-320m, cautions the analyst.

Management has responded promptly to ComCom’s PSE4 pricing determination, flagging an around 11% average discount to pricing for FY26 and FY27, aiming for a 7.82% total return, explains the broker.

The Outperform rating and NZ$8.63 target are unchanged.

Current Price is $7.38. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Aristocrat Leisure's 1H25 revenue and EBITA fell short of Bell Potter's forecasts mainly due to a decline in fee per day (FPD). Normalised net profit also missed due to an additional reason; a higher-than-expected tax rate.

Channel and product mix, and harsh weather contributed to lower FPD, and while these may be one-offs, the broker observed a sideways trend in the last three years. As a result, it cut its FPD forecast.

Still, the broker sees the company well-positioned for 2H25 driven by a robust product pipeline. EPS forecasts over FY25-27 downgraded by -8%, -5% and -4%, respectively.

Buy. Target cut to $79 from $83.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $63.26 Difference: $15.74
If ALL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.51, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

After fundamentals showed weaker trends in recent reporting, (except for CommBank), Macquarie remains Underweight the Australian Bank sector. National Australia Bank remains the broker's preferred exposure and Westpac the least preferred.

Due to weak organic capital generation prospects and limited inorganic tailwinds, the analysts forecast dividend cuts for ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac.

For ANZ Bank, the $27.50 target price and Neutral rating are kept.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $29.00 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.42, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AOF as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes Australian Unity Office Funds has one last asset to settle before it winds up. Unitholders will receive a 48c distribution in September and up to 3c after delisting.

Hold. Target cut to $0.49 from $1.11.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.005
If AOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AQZ as Add (1) -

Alliance Aviation Services downgraded FY25 net profit guidance -11% below previous expectations at the midpoint. This was worse than Morgans' expectation.

However, the outlook laid out at the 2025 Investor Day was positive, with the company highlighting leverage will peak in FY25 and reduce materially in FY26. Net debt is forecast to be in the $315-360m range by FY26-end, from $425-435m estimated in FY25.

The company is targeting free cash flow in FY26, and while investors may be skeptical, the broker is confident the company can sustain it into FY27, given fleet expansion plan will be completed.

FY25-27 EBITDA forecasts cut on updated guidance. Target price trimmed to $3.90 from $4.10.

Add maintained, with the broker noting the stock is trading at -8% discount to Qantas ((QAN)) compared with 35% premium before covid.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $1.31
If AQZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Sports Direct to strongly compete on price and range, notably in clothing and footwear, and the analyst forecasts a base case impact on Rebel's earnings before interest and tax of around -5%, which equates to circa -1% for Super Retail ((SUL)) by FY28.

For Accent Group, the analyst expects Sports Direct could generate around $52m in annualised earnings (EBITDA), or 18% of FY24 earnings (EBITDA), if the company can open 100 stores by the end of 2033, the broker explains.

Target price unchanged at $2.61 with Buy rating.

Target price is $2.61 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.66
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has assessed the impact of US tariffs on Breville Group, noting it is largely insulated in FY25 because of tactical purchases in advance to cover 2H25.

However, FY26 is expected to take a hit and the broker is forecasting a -14.9% decline in the group's earnings, based on an assumption of a 30% tariff on Chinese-manufactured goods, and after accounting for price increases and cost management elsewhere.

The broker expects a return to growth in FY27. Accumulate. Target cut to $35 from $40.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.57 Difference: $3.43
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.81, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

After fundamentals showed weaker trends in recent reporting, (except for CommBank), Macquarie remains Underweight the Australian Bank sector. National Australia Bank remains the broker's preferred exposure and Westpac the least preferred.

Due to weak organic capital generation prospects and limited inorganic tailwinds, the analysts forecast dividend cuts for ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac.

For CommBank, the $105 target price and Underperform rating are kept.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $169.74 Difference: minus $64.74 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $109.25, suggesting downside of -35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CHN as Speculative Buy (1) -

Chalice Mining's enhanced metallurgical processing at the Gonneville deposit is yielding results, with the test work showing improved recovery of palladium (2%), nickel (5%), platinum (2%), gold (3%), while copper was flat.

Morgans notes the data also showed recovery of a saleable iron byproduct. The broker lifted recovery assumptions in the forecasts, but remains conservative on the byproduct potential and has not factored it in for now

Speculative Buy. Target rises to $2.90 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $1.875
If CHN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 183% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 144.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Citi viewed the Charter Hall Retail REIT investor day as positive, with management emphasising the REIT has the highest income and earnings growth exposure to the retail sub-sector, convenience.

The strategic divestment of underperforming leases and better tenant alignment is continuing, the analyst explains, with tenant retention a key focus. There is also an aim to increase WALEs and multi-term tenancy agreements.

Citi stresses the REIT has high barriers to entry from new supply due to zoning limitations and land challenges, and represents the largest convenience retail platform in Australia, valued at over $15bn, including more than 900 occupied properties.

No change to Buy rating and $4 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.22
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CWP as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners maintains a Buy rating on Cedar Woods Properties and raises the target price to $7.15 from $7.00 following the company’s -$50m acquisition of a land parcel near Mt Barker, South Australia.

While the transaction adds to the broker's valuation, near-term EPS is modestly impacted by associated funding costs.

The Mt Barker site includes 860 lots, supporting over eight years of settlements from FY28, with gross development value estimated near $300m. 

The project will diversify Cedar Woods’ South Australian portfolio from apartments and townhouses into residential land, highlights Shaw. 

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $0.7
If CWP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ECF as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes forward-looking data point to a potential recovery in the office market, but it continues to hold a cautious view. 

The broker expects cap rates to remain steady or nudge lower, and valuation growth to be driven by market rents or a well-performing single asset.

Elanor Commercial Property Fund could benefit but it has challenges. The broker expects distribution to fall in FY25-26, and the FY27 distribution to depend on progress in Garema Court and debt cost management.

Hold. Target cut to 62c from 64c.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.005
If ECF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

FireFly Metals has reported impressive maiden drill results from its Rambler Main mine, according to Shaw and Partners, intersecting high-grade VMS mineralisation and extending known zones by 200m.

These results are geologically similar to the high-grade Ming Mine, located just 2km away, and highlight the broader potential of the Green Bay project, suggest the analysts.

Firefly ended March with $68.5m in cash and remains fully funded for upcoming work, assures the broker.

Shaw maintains a Buy, High Risk rating and $1.90 target, assuming 40% resource growth over the next year.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.99
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Hold (3) -

GrainCorp's 1H25 missed Bell Potter's revenue forecast, but EBITDA of $201.7m beat $196.3m forecast, and operating net profit was also ahead.

A $22m favourable movement in crop protection contract (CPC) and stronger results in nutrition and energy helped the outcomes, offsetting softer margins.

The company downgraded FY25 crop guidance to 12.5-13.5mt from 13-14mt, but raised EBITDA and net profit guidance, and the buyback limit to $75m from $50m.

The broker lifted FY25 net profit forecast by 5% on CPC benefits, but cut FY26-27 estimates by -8% and -3%, respectively.

Hold. Target unchanged at $7.45, 

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp delivered a strong 1H result, assesses Macquarie, with earnings (EBITDA) of $202m, well above the broker’s $171m forecast and consensus at $174m. The broker highlights earnings resilience despite softer supply-chain margins.

The earnings lift was supported by strong trading in non-wheat commodities like chickpeas and canola seed, and a standout performance from Nutrition & Energy, explains the analyst.

Management lifted  FY25 underlying earnings guidance by 3% at the midpoint to $285-325m, with the broker forecasting $309m and a 65% 1H earnings skew.

Despite global supply pressures, Macquarie sees earnings diversity across commodities and regions as a key strength, with northern NSW and QLD moisture conditions supportive of future exports.

The broker raises its target price to $8.95 from $8.76. Upcoming catalysts include the ABARES 2025/26 crop forecasts on June 3.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $1.17
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Hold (3) -

GrainCorp's 1H25 underlying EBITDA beat Morgans' forecast, but the broker describes it as lower quality as it benefited $22m from a crop production contract and hedging in nutrition and energy. 

On the positive side, the crush margin wasn't as weak as expected, the XFA acquisition contributed more than expected, and edible oil sales were strong.

The company lifted FY25 EBITDA guidance but flagged it excludes business transformation costs, as the latter will be reported below the line.

The broker upgraded its FY25 EBITDA forecast. The FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts were cut on a lower crush margin estimate and lower grain exports.

Hold. Target rises to $8.20 from $8.04.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.42
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp's 1H25 revenue beat Ord Minnett's forecast by 7%, and adjusted net profit was 9% ahead. The 24c dividend payable on July 19 was also significantly higher than the broker's estimate.

The broker reckons the rise in East Coast grain volumes was the highlight, contributing to an upgrade in the company's FY25 EBITDA and net profit guidance.

Buy. Target rises to $9.75 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $1.97
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp reported 1H25 net profit after tax rose 16%, better than expected, according to UBS.

The result was assisted by timing issues on crush offsetting softness in margins, export opportunities in chickpeas and canola seed, and strength in animal nutrition, the broker details.

The buyback has been raised to $75m from $50m, while the cost of the ERP migration has been raised by $10m to around -$160m–$180m, with spending expected in 2H25–1H26. The analyst views the transition as logical but highlights upside risks to cost overruns.

Target price lifts to $8.60 from $8.50. No change to Buy rating. UBS continues to like the stock and envisages upside risk to FY25 earnings.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.82
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.59, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HUM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners oberves Humm Group's March quarter trading update showed Flexicommercial, which accounts for 70% of Group cash profit, delivered strong 10% year-on-year asset growth. This outcome outperformed a -6% industry decline.

On the flip side, cost-to-income rose versus the prior quarter, prompting a- 5-8% reduction in the broker's cash profit forecasts.

The broker cut its target price to 90c from $1.00. The Buy, High Risk rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.365
If HUM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi explains the Royal Automobile Club of WA appears to be a robust, quality business with "attractive" earnings, and Insurance Australia Group has acquired the club at a price viewed as attractive.

The transaction is expected to be at least circa 5% accretive once synergies are realised. Accounting for the transaction and with no equity issuance, the broker lifts FY27 EPS estimates by 3%, with less challenging weather in FY25 resulting in a rise in FY25 EPS of 5%.

Citi highlights the insurer is seeing the benefits of its reinsurance coverages, which limit the potential CAT risks on its capital position.

The acquisition is subject to ACCC approval, which is due on May 22. Citi retains a Buy rating and raises the target price to $10 from $9.05.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $1.1
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Insurance Australia Group is targeting over 10% EPS accretion from the proposed acquisitions of RACI (RAC Insurance in Western Australia) and RACQ (Royal Automobile Club of Queensland Insurance).

Morgan Stanley sees limited room for error in the plan, highlighting risks to dividend sustainability and the potential need for an equity raising.

While the RACI deal is financially compelling, with around 6.5% EPS accretion expected, execution risk remains high given regulatory hurdles and elevated gearing, caution the analysts.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $7.95 from $7.85. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as No Rating (-1) -

Ord Minnett notes Insurance Australia Group made an acquisition similar to last year with the Royal Automobile Club of Queensland.

The strategic deal this time is with the Royal Automobile Club of Western Australia for -$1.35bn, comprising -$400m for 100% acquisition of the insurance business and -$950m for an exclusive 20-year distribution and brand licensing agreement.

Separately, the company announced gross written premiums in 10 months to April rose 5%. The broker estimates this is a slowing to a 4% increase in 2H and is in line with its own expectation, but lower than consensus. 

The analyst expects this slowdown to extend to FY26. The broker is under research restriction. No rating or target price.

Current Price is $8.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Confirming media reports, Lendlease Group announced it is in late-stage negotiations for a joint venture development of its UK portfolio with The Crown Estate, for a 50:50 JV covering six developments.

Citi highlights a successful deal could realise between $250m–$300m for Lendlease and confirms the strategic position of a capital return, which the broker believes the market is currently not pricing in.

No change to Neutral rating and $7.50 target price.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: $2.11
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 24.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

Citi's analysis of Lovisa Holdings' store data, using the broker's Innovation Lab, infers the company opened around 20 net new stores in April.

This represents a pickup in pace from 3Q25 openings, the broker highlights.

If Lovisa maintains the rate of net new store openings, with around 40 opened between January and April, the company is on track to potentially exceed consensus estimates for operating 1,001 stores in  FY25.

The broker also notes the company has opened its second store in China, in Beijing, which may improve investor confidence in the prospects for China.

Sell rating. Target unchanged at $25.86.

Target price is $25.86 Current Price is $28.50 Difference: minus $2.64 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.68, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

After fundamentals showed weaker trends in recent reporting, (except for CommBank), Macquarie remains Underweight the Australian Bank sector. National Australia Bank remains the broker's preferred exposure and Westpac the least preferred.

Due to weak organic capital generation prospects and limited inorganic tailwinds, the analysts forecast dividend cuts for ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac.

For National Australia Bank, the $35 target price and Neutral rating are kept.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $36.59 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.17, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Outperform (1) -

Navigator Global Investments has upgraded FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance to US$106-110m, representing an around 15% lift on prior guidance.

Macquarie notes the upward revision is driven by stronger-than-expected profit distributions from partner firms and improved investment performance across its strategic portfolio.

Assets under management rose to US$80.8bn, up from US$79bn in December 2024. The broker highlights the resilience of Navigator's diversified partner model amid a challenging environment.

Macquarie upgrades its FY25 EPS forecasts by around17% but retains FY26 estimates, noting potential downside to FY26 distributions and performance fees depending on market conditions.

The target rises to $2.39 from $2.37. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.64
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Buy (1) -

Citi updates its nickel price forecast for the June quarter, which moves Nickel Industries' net profit after tax forecast for FY25 to align with consensus, the analyst highlights, at NPI of US$11,700/t and LME nickel of US$15,000/t.

The broker also expects the company to receive US$110m in outstanding VAT refunds in 2026.

No change to Buy rating and 90c target price.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.25
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 60.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

Citi has added 1.4moz to reserves, with Fimiston contributing 1.2moz, and resources up by around 9.4moz, of which Fimiston accounts for 6.5moz, Citi details from the latest mineral and ore reserves update.

The analyst notes Pogo's cost of goods has lowered with improved milling rates, and reserve grade is now at 7.2g/t Au, down from 8.0g/t, which is more aligned to the March quarter head grades of 7.3g/t.

The company has increased exploration spending to -$230m, up -$50m, with an update from Hemi mineral ore reserves expected before May 2026.

Citi continues to expect Northern Star to outperform its peers from 4Q, once FY26 downgrades are complete and the sale of a 3.4% holding in Gold Road Resources is finalised. Buy rating and $22.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $18.04 Difference: $4.46
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.89, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Upgrade to Buy from Buy/High risk (1) -

Citi explains the ongoing saga of OneSteel and NRW Holdings' position as a secured creditor.

The South Australian government's decision to vest ownership of assets to an entity under administration has undermined NRW's position, such that the broker believes full recovery seems unlikely.

The company has been impacted by this saga and weather-related disruptions to mining, with the market cap shrinking by -19% since February's trading halt, the analyst highlights.

A robust order book underpins a positive view from Citi, with the broker stressing the OneSteel Whyalla travails are already discounted in the share price following the downward revision in 1H25 earnings expectations.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Buy/High risk with a lower target price of $3.65 from $3.85,

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.99
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Citi details the operating environment for Orora remains challenging, which is largely as expected, with management pleasingly offering limited negative new news.

The performances of Australian operations are labeled "mixed," with Cans returning to usual growth levels, including year-to-date sales advancing by 4%.

Glass/beer and commercial wine remain challenged, which is viewed by Citi as further evidence of a structural decline and the closure of the G1 furnace.

In the US, some 20% of the company's exposure is tariff exempt, and interestingly, 44% of Saverglass' sales are to the US and potentially exposed to tariffs, but management has seen limited impacts to date.

Guidance for FY25 capex was reduced to -$285m–$295m due to changes in the Ghlin modernisation plans, Citi states. The company is expected to be moving into a period of more robust cash flow generation.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price slips to $2.10 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Management at Orora has slightly softened 2H guidance, with underlying earnings (EBIT) now expected to be broadly in line with 2H24 before a circa -$8m overhead allocation from the Orora Packaging Solutions sale.

An additional -$7m in corporate costs is expected to impact 1H26, which is not fully reflected in consensus, cautions the broker.

Cans volume growth has normalised to long-term trends, implying to the analyst stronger growth in 2H.

Regarding Saverglass, a North-American driven volume lift is being offset by adverse mix with higher volumes in wine/champagne products, explains the broker.

Recent tariff developments are seen as manageable, with Orora confident in passing through costs and flexible production mitigating risk.

The broker lowers its target price to $2.39 from $2.42. Outperform.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.46
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Overweight (1) -

Orora’s trading update highlights to Morgan Stanley a still challenging environment, with overall group guidance now pointing to a mid single-digit earnings (EBIT) downgrade for H2 and a low single-digit downgrade for FY25.

The broker notes Saverglass is the key point of difference, with expectations shifting from growth to being in line with the prior year. This change is largely due to a mix shift toward lower-margin wine and champagne categories, explain the analysts.

While Saverglass' order trends have improved, the broker highlights they have yet to deliver meaningful sales growth due to the typical 4-6 month lead time.

Australian commercial wine volumes remain structurally challenged, Morgan Stanley notes, with 2H25 Gawler volumes expected to be broadly in line with the prior period.

While Orora is well positioned for a recovery, the broker sees limited clear signs of a near-term pick-up and expects the market may wait for more tangible evidence. The broker remains Overweight. Target $2.50. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.57
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Hold (3) -

Orora downgraded guidance for 2H25 EBIT at the investor day, citing weaker demand in the Saverglass business while noting it is currently assuming no material impact from US tariff risks.

Ord Minett noted the company is working on other sourcing arrangements to reduce the tariff impacts. However, uncertainty about how higher prices will affect demand remains.

FY25-27 EPS forecasts cut by -5.6%, -6.8% and -3.2%, respectively. 

Hold. Target cut to $2.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.37
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.36, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Ramsay Sante, 52.8% owned by Ramsay Health Care, reported financial results for the nine months to March 2025, showing revenue and earnings (EBITDA) growth, notes Morgan Stanley.

However, the broker points to a -16% decline in underlying earnings (EBIT), accompanied by margin contraction.

Run-rates for FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) are in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, while underlying EBIT is slightly ahead. 

Operating cash flow fell -15% year-on-year, and tariffs in the Medical, Surgical and Obstetrics segment rose by just 0.5% from March 2025.

Equal-weight. Target $37.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $35.82 Difference: $1.38
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.16, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Sports Direct to strongly compete on price and range, notably in clothing and footwear, and the analyst forecasts a base case impact on Rebel's earnings before interest and tax of around -5%, which equates to circa -1% for Super Retail by FY28.

For Accent Group, the analyst expects Sports Direct could generate around $52m in annualised earnings (EBITDA), or 18% of FY24 earnings (EBITDA), if the company can open 100 stores by the end of 2033, the broker explains.

Target price moves to $16.50 from $17. Buy rating remains.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $13.96 Difference: $2.54
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.99, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates announced the CEO of five years and 15 years with the company is leaving the business at the end of September, which has heightened investor concerns about the "trajectory" of North American operations, according to Citi.

The broker believes Mr Ford, the outgoing CEO, has executed well on China and the shift to luxury, but North America's business is encountering dual headwinds from a slower economy and changing alcohol consumption patterns.

The incoming CEO, Sam Fisher, has over 30 years of experience in alcoholic beverages, consumer goods, and luxury, the analyst states. He is currently the CEO of Lion and has been a director of luxury brand Burberry.

No change to Neutral rating and $10.50 target price.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.65 Difference: $1.85
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.96, suggesting upside of 39.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates has announced current CEO Tim Ford will step down in September, with Sam Fischer, formerly of Lion and Diageo, to take over in October.

While Macquarie views the appointment positively, the unexpected leadership change introduces uncertainty around the company’s medium-term strategy, particularly for the key Penfolds segment.

No update was provided on FY25 guidance, which had already been downgraded in February. With the new CEO not starting until late October, the broker does not expect any near-term strategic shifts and remains cautious on the group’s outlook.

Macquarie's earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 are cut by -5.3% and -9.5% respectively, reflecting reduced confidence in recovery and long-term growth. Growth expectations for Penfolds have also been lowered.

After lowering its target by -24% to $8.90, thy broker downgrades the rating for Treasury Wine Estates to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.65 Difference: $0.25
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.96, suggesting upside of 39.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Underperform (5) -

After fundamentals showed weaker trends in recent reporting, (except for CommBank), Macquarie remains Underweight the Australian Bank sector. National Australia Bank remains the broker's preferred exposure and Westpac the least preferred.

Due to weak organic capital generation prospects and limited inorganic tailwinds, the analysts forecast dividend cuts for ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac.

For Westpac, the $27.50 target price and Underperform rating are kept.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $31.52 Difference: minus $4.02 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.98, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero reported underlying earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$641m, a rise of 22% on the previous year, which came in slightly below Citi's expectations and consensus by -2%.

Revenue growth at 23% was broadly in line, with higher costs accounting for the slightly weaker earnings result, the broker explains.

Citi highlights annualised monthly recurring revenue infers a potential lift of 5% to revenue consensus forecasts for FY26, having grown 22% on a year earlier. Net additions in the UK and US were also better than anticipated at 79k in 2H25 for the former and 35k for the latter.

A larger increase in headcount underwrote the strongest rise since 1H24, while management pointed to opex ratio for FY26 at 71.5%, including -NZ$45m in senior staff remuneration.

Buy rated with $200 target price.

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $182.05 Difference: $17.95
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.67, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Outperform (1) -

FY25 results show Macquarie that Xero is prioritising sales-driven dollar growth over percentage margins, with product velocity, accelerating payments, and international subscriber growth providing key tailwinds.

Management is reinvesting heavily in marketing and brand development to support future growth, particularly in the US, contributing to higher-than-expected FY25 sales and marketing expenses, explains the broker.

Product rollouts like the US BILL integration and Xero Simple in the UK, alongside new beta and early access launches, signal ongoing expansion potential, in the analyts's view.

Macquarie's target rises to $204 from $191.90. Outperform. Key catalysts include product releases, M&A activity, and potential dividend initiation.

Target price is $204.00 Current Price is $182.05 Difference: $21.95
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.67, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Xero reported FY25 revenue of NZ$2,103m, in line with consensus, and earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$640.6m, which was -2% below expectations, notes Morgan Stanley.

Free cash flow was strong at NZ$506.7m, highlight the analysts, lifting the rule-of-40 metric to 44%, up from 41% the prior year.

The broker points out average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to NZ$45.1/month, up 15% year-on-year and 2.5% ahead of consensus. A&NZ ARPU grew 10%, while international markets (UK, US, RoW) delivered 21% growth. 

Management issued FY26 guidance for a cost ratio of 71.5%. Morgan Stanley observes this was higher than the 69.5% expected by consensus, due to a -NZ$45m non-cash charge linked to CEO and CFO remuneration.

Overweight rating. Target $220. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $220.00 Current Price is $182.05 Difference: $37.95
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.67, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates XRO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The highlight of Xero's FY25 result for Morgans was 25% y/y subscriber growth in North America, which beat its forecast and was also marginally above consensus. The broker notes this is important for the company's growth ambitions.

Tight cost management was also a positive, supporting incremental capital on sales and marketing going ahead, which, together with improved product profile, is expected to boost subscriber growth.

Overall revenue was in line, and the "rule of 40" was exceeded with operating profit up 48% y/y.

In 2H25 specifically, the broker also points to higher ARPU in North America, up 25% y/y, which lifted revenue up 28% y/y. The UK business saw ARPU grow 18% y/y and revenue lifted 26% y/y.

The broker lifted FY26-27 expenses forecasts, leading to a cut in EPS forecasts.

Target price rises to $215 from $188 on an increase in DCF-based valuation and roll forward. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $182.05 Difference: $32.95
If XRO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.67, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Buy (1) -

UBS maintains a Buy rating on Xero with an upgraded target price of $215 from $196, highlighting the company is achieving its strategy and is a member of the ASX Rule of 40 Club, which deserves a premium valuation rating, the broker explains.

The analyst highlights continued earnings growth from price increases, up on average by 10% from July 1, 2025, as well as growth in payments in the UK, boosted by Making Tax Digital Phase III and the launch of its reporting platform, Syft.

UBS views the US go-to-market as still too early at this stage and expects it will most likely be a story for the end of FY26.

The analyst tweaks earnings estimates down by -3% for 2026.

Target price is $215.00 Current Price is $182.05 Difference: $32.95
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $205.67, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources