Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AGE as Speculative Buy (-1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on uranium exploration and development company Alligator Energy with a Speculative Buy rating and 5c target.

The company is currently advancing four projects (South Australia and Northern Territory) at various stages from early exploration through to advanced exploration/early study work. There is also a non-core base metals project in Northern Italy.

The Samphire uranium project in South Australia is the most advanced with a recent scoping study confirming amenability for in-situ-recovery mining similar to that utilised at Honeymoon, owned by Boss Energy ((BOE)), explain the analysts.

Bell Potter sees value accretion from a number of sources including expansion and upgrades to the mineral resource estimate at Sapphire and advancement of the portfolio of uranium and base metal assets.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.015
If AGE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Buy (1) -

Citi now expects a sooner-than-originally-anticipated nadir for the New Zealand housing market and believes stocks will trough before housing sentiment, because investors typically discount forward outcomes.

Lead indicators are on the improve and the analyst sees a number of positives including interest rates being potentially placed on hold and sequential improvement in turnover.

The Buy rating for Fletcher Building is retained and the target price increases to NZ$5.80 from NZ$5.70.

Current Price is $4.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

UBS delves into direct lithium extraction (DLE) in order to "demystify" the technology. This has led the broker to become more sceptical about supply being able to keep up with demand for lithium and the electric vehicle theme.

UBS remains positive on the sector and its preferred operator in the local market is IGO. Buy rating and $19 target maintained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.02 Difference: $3.98
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights FY24 is forecast to be the peak for asbestos claims, following the release of the KPMG FY23 asbestos actuarial report showing a modest decline in forecast claims payments over the next decade.

While the peak year was previously expected to be FY23, the broker feels this is an important milestone, as it de-risks payment trends and provides increased confidence.

Overweight rating reiterated. Target is $44. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $39.37 Difference: $4.63
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.10, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JRV as Neutral (3) -

Jervois Global has launched a US$25m 1-for-3.34 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer and issued US$25m in convertible notes. The proceeds will be used for ICO residual vendor payments, Mercuria loan repayments and general purposes.

Macquarie believes a capital raising was prudent in order to maintain adequate liquidity and bolster the balance sheet.

Weak cobalt prices are expected to continue, although the return to positive EBITDA in Finland in the second quarter of 2023 is considered a positive. Neutral rating maintained. Target edges down to 7c from 8c.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.004
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLS as Outperform (1) -

Kelsian Group will acquire AAAHI, a US provider of motorcoach/shuttle services spearheading its long-awaited entry into that market. Macquarie observes the business has 16% EBIT margins which compares with Kelsian's buses at 8%.

This reflects well-defined customer requirements, with most contracts negotiated rather than competitively tendered.

The broker finds the stock attractive with a defensive earnings base and free cash flow yield of 8% and an Outperform rating is retained while the target is raised to $8.80 from $8.00.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $1.69
If KLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.93, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Mount Gibson Iron will divest its mid-west assets for $25m to Fenix Resources ((FEX)) and will have a greater than 10% equity interest in the latter post the transaction.

Macquarie considers monetising the assets a positive given the Shine iron ore mine was on care and maintenance. The broker assesses the company is on track to achieve FY23 guidance and will produce 12mt over the remaining Koolan Island life of mine.

Outperform rating retained. Target is $0.55.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.115
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHL as Sell (5) -

UBS suspects the FY24 trough in EPS will be deeper than previously expected for Sonic Healthcare. The broker assesses consensus expectations are too optimistic and the catch-up opportunity for non-covid tests is almost over outside of Australia.

Moreover, the broker asserts there is no reason to believe this is a materially different business post the pandemic. Sell rating and $31 target maintained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $36.11 Difference: minus $5.11 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.62, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains attracted to the superior growth profile of Santos, even with delays at Barossa. There are several growth options while the broker has raised Brent oil assumptions to US$70/bbl in 2024 and continues to use a US$65/bbl assumption from 2025.

The broker forecasts second quarter production of 21.7mmboe, the weakest in 14 quarters, as a result of production declines as some assets reach end-of-life. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $10.00 from $10.10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.46 Difference: $2.54
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett considers the online gambling report as "value-neutral" for Tabcorp Holdings. Potential downside is offset by the likelihood of a more favourable competitive environment.

The report has made 31 recommendations to the Australian government with the most substantial being that all online gambling advertising and sponsorship should be prohibited in the next three years.

Ord Minnett believes tighter restrictions on advertising would favour the current market leaders as newer competitors struggle with visibility and brand recognition.

The broker also notes polling suggests that most Australians would support measures that prohibit gambling advertising. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $1.05 target.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Last week analysts at Bell Potter attended the annual conference of the Society for Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging (SNMMI) in Chicago. There were no competitors to TLX 250CDx noted at the conference.

The Telix Pharmaceuticals investor day held in New York followed along with a visit by the analysts to headquarters in Indianapolis.

While the broker makes no changes to its forecasts, the trip reinforced the view the US has under-invested in the training of Nuclear Medicine Specialists for several decades.

It's thought the recent acquisition of Dedicaid may place Telix at the forefront of plugging this gap. The Speculative Buy rating and $14 target are unchanged.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.44 Difference: $2.56
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

UBS flags the successful first launch for Telix Pharmaceuticals with Illuccix,  a radiolabelled prostate cancer diagnostic.

The next asset to be launched, TLX 250-CDx, is a kidney cancer diagnostic which is expected to kick off in 2024 and UBS estimates peak sales of $240m are not priced into the stock.

The broker suggests there is no need to believe in the therapeutic pipeline but, "if any of it works there is potentially big upside". Buy rating and $14 target maintained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.44 Difference: $2.56
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VNT as Accumulate (2) -

Ventia Services has secured new contracts, which support Ord Minnett's forecasts. A new six-year contract with Transurban ((TCL)) has been acquired in addition to a new five-year contract with the Department of Defence.

The Transurban contract expands on prior tunnel a motorway services while the defence maintenance contract is more material, amid expectations for $393m in revenue over five years. The broker retains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $3.80 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.78
If VNT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.37, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources has a credit-approved loan facility of US$265m that, along with existing cash from Sanbrado, will allow Kiaka to be fully funded to first gold.

Macquarie assesses the timing of the development is important for the outlook and first gold remains on track for the second half of 2025. Outperform and $1.60 target maintained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.73
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy has completed the turnaround at Pluto and recommenced shipping LNG cargoes. Amid lower production and less LNG trading potential, Macquarie estimates second quarter production of 43.1mmboe and revenue of US$3.17bn.

The broker assesses the shares are trading at fair value and retains a Neutral rating with the target edging up to $35 from $34.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.27 Difference: $0.73
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.85, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates XTE as Buy (1) -

Management at Australian defence manufacturer XTEK has upgraded revenue guidance to between $86m and $88m, beating Bell Potter's forecast for $83.9m.

The earnings (EBITDA) guidance range implies to the broker an earnings margin of between 10.4%-11.9%, which is disappointing versus an underlying margin of 19.7% in FY22.

A reduced 2H earnings margin was largely driven by lower gross margins, explains Bell Potter, along with an increased revenue contribution from the lower margin Technology division and increased opex due to inflationary pressures.

The broker retains its Buy rating and lowers its target to 80c from 88c after also adjusting for market movements and time creep.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.39
If XTE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources