Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its rating to Neutral from Underperform and raises its target price to $7.30 from $6.70, now that consensus and guidance are consistent with forward prices. 

The broker estimates FY21 earnings (EBITDA)  were in-line, with higher Customer earnings being largely offset by lower Wholesale Gas. The midpoint of FY22 guidance was -5% below consensus, while FY22 profit guidance -12% below, explains the analyst.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.12
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as No Rating (-1) -

While AGL Energy's underlying profit for FY21 of $537m was down -33%, Macquarie notes this was well flagged and exceeded Macquarie's forecast of $530m. 

The broker highlights this was the first year of a two-year earnings reset for AGL Energy. Following an earnings miss given poor gas profitability in FY21, the company is expected to suffer from weak electricity prices in FY22 leading to a -$350m decline. 

Despite this the broker is predicting AGL Energy to claw back around 50% of that decline as FY23 prices have materially improved. 

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie cannot advise its valuation on AGL at present.

Current Price is $7.18. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -

Given AGL Energy's share price fall and the uncertainty around the proposed demerger implementation, Morgan Stanley notes a sustained rise in pool prices and asset sales would be needed to drive a more positive outlook. 

AGL Energy's underlying profits of $537m for FY21 was down -34% on FY20 results. The company is reportedly cautiously optimistic about the improvement in electricity pricing outlooks, but Morgan Stanley notes the company's risk-adjusted returns are in the bottom half of its Utilities and Infrastructure stock coverage. 

Morgan Stanley anticipates near-term underperformance for the stock. The Underweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.88 from $8.88. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $6.88 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Hold (3) -

While FY21 underlying EPS was in-line with Morgans expectations, FY22 guidance for underlying profit fell -36% short of expectations. The broker retains its Hold rating and increases its target price to $7.38 from $7.34.

The broker points out earnings are expected to fall further this year as more profitable wholesale hedging contracts expire and retail margins remain under pressure. Also, as legacy black coal contracts continue to unwind, it's felt the company will face sustained fuel cost increases.

Management highlighted the ongoing challenges facing baseload plants and suggested there will be limited participation in pool price upside in FY22 because of the company’s contracted position.

The analyst continues to see only limited upside in the absence of a market redesigned to accommodate AGL Energy's legacy assets.

Target price is $7.38 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.2
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Hold (3) -

Reflecting weak market conditions, AGL Energy reported a -20% drop in operating earnings in FY21.

The company's full-year net profit of $537m was the lowest in eight years, although it beat Ord Minnett’s $521m forecast.

The broker notes based on guidance, FY22 could represent the lowest net profit on record. An unfranked final dividend of 24c per share was declared, taking the full-year payout to 75c per share.

With this fiscal year possibly marking the low point for the company, Ord Minnett believes there are some reasons to be cautiously optimistic. However, the broker notes earnings growth is still some way away, and in the meantime, the company remains committed to demerging part of the business.

Ord Minnett retains its Hold rating and the target price is lowered to $7.80 from $8.60.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.62
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Sell (5) -

FY21 underlying net profit was in line with UBS estimates. The broker reduces FY22 estimates by -14%, mostly because of higher depreciation and amortisation. As the electricity portfolio is over-hedged this allows for almost no exposure to higher electricity futures.

The broker notes the company remains committed to its demerger plan, targeting implementation in May/June 2022.

While AGL plans to manage price risk in the gas market by entering into new supply contracts, the broker still expects margin compression as east coast gas prices are expected to rise through to FY23-24 as supply tightens. Sell rating and $7.60 target maintained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $0.42
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALG as Buy (1) -

Based on Citi's analysis of key US-based datasets, Ardent Leisure's main event’s trading performance continued to be strong over the remainder of FY21.

While strong like-for-like sales typically should lead to share price gains, from Citi's perspective what may even be more important is the cash flow being generated from strong sales.

The broker notes this may positively impact how much cash Ardent can receive should Red Bird exercise its option for an additional 27% stake in Main Event, and help fund new centre rollout.

Ardent remains one of the broker's top picks in small caps. Citi likes the stock’s exposure to the improving US consumer sentiment as well as the asset backing at Dreamworld.

Buy rating and $1.30 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.25
If ALG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

While AMP has clearly made some progress in first half FY21, Citi notes there will be no dividend until at least first half FY22, and earnings are guided to fall in the second half.

Given the first half beat on higher “investment earnings” Citi has lifted FY21 estimates by 3% with little change to later years.

Citi notes while the company's remediation program is finished and there is progress in advice, there is still a long way to go to put the business on a profitable footing.

Citi maintains its Neutral rating and $1.25 target price.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.13
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMP as No Rating (-1) -

AMP reported first half underlying profit 6% above consensus and 12% above Credit Suisse's estimates. The beat was largely driven by
Group Office which was $18m ahead of consensus while earnings in the operating business units were in aggregate -$10m below. 

Divisionaly, Australian Wealth Management (lower advice revenues, higher costs) and AMP Capital (lower performance) were below expectations, while AMP Bank (higher net interest margins and bad debt write-backs) was above.

Credit Suisse is research restricted and cannot provide a rating or target for AMP.

Current Price is $1.12. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as No Rating (-1) -

Highlighted by strong growth in the bank and delivery of the cost-out program, AMP's first-half FY21 result was -5.4% below Macquarie's forecasts.

FY21 controllable costs expectations (ex ACI) remain at $775m, which is better than the broker's previous forecasts.

Macquarie notes cost problems are beginning to emerge in the Capital division which needs to be closely monitored as the business
proceeds towards a demerger in first half FY22. 

There was no interim dividend, and Macquarie suspects the final dividend is also unlikely given conservatism until post-demerger.

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie can’t advise its valuation or recommendation on AMP.

Current Price is $1.12. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

AMP's reported first-half 2021 headline underlying earnings were ahead of Ord Minnett’s forecasts due to group factors, with higher investment income, lower interest expense, lower-than-expected tax, and lower group office costs.

Earnings by division were broadly in line with AMP Bank doing well and AMP Capital and Australian Wealth Management (AWM) weaker, while New Zealand was in line.

Ord Minnett notes while AMP does appear cheap, the broker sees earnings pressure over the short-to-medium term on both AWM and AMP Capital, particularly as AMP works to retain funds under management (FUM) and stem fund outflows.

Hold rating and target price of $1.20 are both unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.08
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes first half results contain many of the "worrying characteristics" that have plagued the company in recent years. Net outflows continue and volume growth remains sluggish while fees are under pressure and costs high.

Adverse trends in the core wealth and funds business are not expected to improve in 2021. Although the de-merger may help unlock value there is not enough information at this stage for UBS to form an opinion. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.14 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.02
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.21, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANP as Add (1) -

Morgans sees an opportunity to add to holdings should the share price weaken after the FDA informed the company that its Fast-Track Designation (FTD) request will require resubmission post the lifting of its partial hold.

The broker points out there's no impact to the timing of the trial commencement or completion although it does push out a price catalyst which investors would view favourably if received. Morgans retains its Speculative Buy and $0.44 price target.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.26
If ANP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 144% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AQZ as Buy (1) -

The second half  was a little soft compared with Ord Minnett's expectations, as the business incurred some covid-related impacts prior to the balance date. However, bringing-on the Embraer fleet faster than expected drives broker earnings upgrades for FY22 and FY23.

On a medium-term view the broker notes the company is seeing such strong demand that there may well be further opportunities for
fleet numbers to grow further. There are no changes to Ord Minnett's Buy rating or $5.15 target price.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $1
If AQZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBN as Buy (1) -

In an initial take on Baby Bunting's FY21 results, Ord Minnett notes the 5% increase in FY21 underlying profit is in-line with the analyst's forecast. The final dividend of 8.3cps was just below the 8.5cps forecast, and up on the 6.4cps dividend declared in 2H20.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) increased 20%, with margins rising by 50bps. Cash flow from operations was lower than expected, reflecting a -$15.4m movement in working capital, as the company cycled a lower inventory position in the previous corresponding period.

Even though stores have remained open, management has not provided any guidance due to some disruption, as evidenced by a fall of -6% in comparable store sales growth to 12 August 2021. Ord Minnett retains its positive view, Buy rating and its $6.50 target price.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.98 Difference: $0.52
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Resume Coverage with Buy (1) -

US hot rolled coil spreads have risen rapidly, approaching US$1400/t. UBS expects supply tightness will continue in FY22 with elevated lead times at steel mills and low service centre inventory.

As a result North Star is expected to contribute a record $1.6bn to earnings (EBIT) in FY22. Meanwhile domestic dispatches are strong amid housing tailwinds and this is likely to persist.

The broker expects the company will have $2.5bn in excess capital to return over FY22-23 and suspects a buyback will be the preferred option, at least in the first year. UBS resumes coverage with a Buy rating and $27.99 target.

Target price is $27.99 Current Price is $24.83 Difference: $3.16
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.23, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQE as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett points out the capital raising in May 2020 diluted an otherwise 13.5% growth in operating earnings, after the REIT reported a -3.1% fall in FY21 operating earnings to 16 cents per unit (cpu). This compared to the broker's 16.4cpu estimate.

The analyst notes inflation impacted like-for-like (LFL) growth, which was down -50 basis points to 2.3%. Management's dividend per unit (DPU) guidance is 16.7cpu and no FY22 EPS guidance was provided.

Ord Minnett highlights rent visibility continues to improve with weighted average lease expiry (WALE) increasing to 15.2 years from 12.7 years in FY20, and fixed rent reviews at 73% versus 54%. The Hold rating is maintained and the target price rises to $3.60 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.07
If CQE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Downer EDI's FY21 underlying earnings (EBITA) came in 7% ahead of Credit Suisse's expectation with Transport being the primary driver, no pun intended. Cash conversion was considered a standout at 92%.

No guidance was given though management pointed to solid growth momentum across core verticals. The broker raises forecast FY22 earnings by 2%, largely driven by higher top-line growth in Transport and steeper margin expansion from Rail recovery and solid Roads.

Credit Suisse lifts its target price to $6.50 from $6.45 and maintains its Outperform rating.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: $0.73
If DOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Downer EDI's FY21 net profit of $261m was inline with Macquarie's estimates, with transport services driving a modest earnings beat which was partially offset by higher corporate costs and lower Mining/Asset services earnings.

The broker believes the result is further evidence that Downer's urban services transition is taking real shape.

The company expects its core urban services to continue to grow in FY22 both in revenue and earnings supported by ongoing robust government and infrastructure spend.

Macquarie forecasts $278m and $321m net profit in FY22 and FY23.

Macquarie retains outperform rating and target price increases to $6.40 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: $0.63
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DOW as Overweight (1) -

Downer EDI has shown strong recovery in Transport and demonstrated solid cash conversion across the business. Transport, the company's largest division, reported 13% revenue uplift on the previous half. 

Solid cash conversion has driven a higher dividend ratio, and Morgan Stanley is forecasting further medium-term increases and a 65% payout. 

Morgan Stanley sees likely continued growth in the company over the next twelve months. The broker notes potential for further capital management in this same time period on top of the already planned share buybacks. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.50 from $6.40. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: $0.73
If DOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett lifts its rating for Downer EDI to Hold from Lighten and increases its target price to $5.60 from $5.30, after FY21 underlying net profit came in 10% ahead of the analyst's forecast. An unfranked final dividend of 12 cents was declared.

The broker highlights earnings (EBITA) margins in the second half were returned to the company’s five-year pre-pandemic average (FY15–19).

To get more positive on the stock, Ord Minnett would look for continued execution of the urban services strategy and further margin expansion.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.77 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group's FY21 earning per share (EPS) was 2% above guidance and 0.5% above Citi, with the beat versus the broker's estimate driven by higher investment income and lower interest expense/tax.

FY22 EPS guidance was introduced at 10% growth or 72.2c, -3.5% below Citi's prior estimate.

The broker sees upside to FY22 guidance given 10%-plus growth in FY22 development earnings driven by increasing volumes and expanding margins, potentially lower disposals in FY22, and the group's history of being conservative on initial guidance.

Citi maintains a Buy rating: Target price $26.00.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $22.64 Difference: $3.36
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.40, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

According to Credit Suisse, Goodman Group produced another solid result, driven by the Development division. FY21 operating profit was up 15%, slightly ahead of the broker's estimate. Management is guiding to 10% EPS growth in FY22, slightly below consensus.

While total shareholder returns are looking modest, the broker retains its Outperform rating and thinks the company will continue to perform well, given its strong balance sheet. In addition, there's forecast earnings growth and leverage to global e-commerce.

Developments remain the earnings driver, and with work-in-progress growing, the outlook for development earnings remains robust, points out the analyst. Credit Suisse lowers its target price to $24.04 from $24.15.

Target price is $24.04 Current Price is $22.64 Difference: $1.4
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.40, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman Group's FY21 result was marginally ahead of Macquarie estimates with development again driving earnings. Operating profit after tax of $1,219m equates to earnings per share (EPS) of 65.6cps which was 1% ahead of Macquarie.

FY22 operating EPS guidance of 10% year-on-year implies operating EPS of 72.2cps.

Macquarie notes Goodman has upgraded EPS for the past nine years, and the broker expects FY22 to be no different and is forecasting operating EPS growth of 13%.

Macquarie notes the more limited upside in some key leading indicators may cause concern for some investors, however, the broker views the composition of earnings going forward as key in the investment thesis.

Outperform rating with the target increasing 7% to $24.84.

Target price is $24.84 Current Price is $22.64 Difference: $2.2
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.40, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

While Goodman Group is guiding to 10% earnings per share growth in FY22, this was a -3% miss on consensus forecasts. Morgan Stanley highlights this is by no means a poor result. 

According to the broker FY22 earnings growth will be positively impacted by minimal divestments driving rental income growth, continued growth in Development profits, and an expected 12% increase in assets under management. Morgan Stanley expects these factors to drive a beat on the earnings per share guidance. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $25.00 from 23.00. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $22.64 Difference: $2.36
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.40, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Goodman Group reported an FY21 operating profit of $1.22bn, or 65.6c per share, up 14% on FY20 and in line with Ord Minnett’s $1.21m forecast.

The result was underpinned by a 25% increase in development earnings, with development work in progress (WIP) lifting from $4.1bn two years ago to $10.6bn.

Ord Minnett believes this should result in strong increases in development earnings over the next two to three years, in turn driving strong assets under management (AUM) growth.

The broker believes Goodman carries material built-up development and performance fee profits, which have been held back for future years, and expects more than 10% earnings per share (EPS)  growth in each of the next three years.

An unfranked final dividend of 15c was declared, taking the full-year payout to 30c per share.

Ord Minnett downgrades the rating to Accumulate from Buy and the price target increases to $24 from $21.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.64 Difference: $1.36
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.40, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

FY21 earnings growth of 14% was in line with UBS estimates. The key metrics that are driving the medium-term earnings outlook suggest guidance for growth of 10% is very conservative. The broker forecasts 14% and anticipates upgrades to guidance throughout FY22.

UBS points out the new 10-year investment plan is market-leading in its alignment with security holders but comes at a cost. The company has extended the testing period to four years and the vesting period to 10 years and included more challenging hurdles and ESG targets.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds and higher market expectations. Target is raised to $22.50 from $21.20.

Target price is $22.50 Current Price is $22.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.40, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse retains its Neutral rating and lifts its target price to $6.16 from $5.54. The broker's FY22 and FY23 forecasts increase due to
increased grain carry in, higher exports and an increase to the analyst's 2021/22 crop production forecast.

Management upgraded guidance for FY21 earnings (EBITDA) to $310-330m from $255-285m. Profit guidance increased to $125-140m from $80-105m. Exports are expected to be at the higher end of a 7-8mt range.

Target price is $6.16 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.05
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp has raised the range for FY21 underlying earnings 19% at the midpoint to $310-$330m and FY21 underlying net profit 43% at the midpoint to $125-$140m.

Macquarie has raised FY21 earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 33% to reflect the company's upgraded guidance, while an increase of 16% to FY22 EPS estimates reflects greater confidence in operating initiatives, additional grain carry out benefit, and grain exports.

The broker notes GrainCorp's earnings upgrade story continues to reflect the strong performance of the east coast Australian grains business, following the bumper 2020/21 harvest.

The Outperform rating is maintained and target price increases to $7.27 from $6.66.

Target price is $7.27 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $1.16
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Add (1) -

Morgans materially upgrades forecasts following a second FY21 profit upgrade. FY22 outlook commentary was considered upbeat, due to the planted area and favourable outlook for the 2021/22 winter crop. It's also thought benefits will derive from upgraded carryover grain.

The broker moves ahead of ABARES next Crop Report on 14 September and materially upgrades its crop estimates, and lifts its target price to $6.75 from $6.28. The Add rating is maintained.

Managements FY21 guidance is now for underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $310-330m from $255-285m.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.64
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp has upgraded operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance for FY21 by 16-22% and net profit guidance by 33-56%. Demand for Australian grain is booming amid supply challenges in the northern hemisphere.

This is driving higher exports, stronger supply chain margins and elevated levels of forward contracted sales for the company.

UBS retains a Buy rating, given the possibility of FY22 upgrades based on another bumper crop and the potential for capital management. Target is raised to $7.00 from $6.70.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.89
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Resume Coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS resumes coverage with a Buy rating and $6.50 target, rebuilding coverage of the Australian retail sector. The broker notes strong sales and earnings growth in core franchise operations from pandemic-induced trends.

This has created tough comparables yet the business has significant leverage to housing which the broker believes should be a multi-year driver that supports sales growth and margins.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.71
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

UBS makes small earnings changes to estimates for FY22 and FY23. In the outer years a small downgrade reflects a winding down of technical reserves from currently elevated levels because of the large provisions for business interruption.

The broker also suspects further market share loss in the motor book for Insurance Australia Group, noting premium growth during the second half was 4.6% compared with Suncorp Group's ((SUN)) 8.6%.

Buy rating and $5.65 target maintained.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.2
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Resume Coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS resumes coverage of JB Hi-Fi with a Neutral rating and $50 target. The shifting of spending patterns during the pandemic has buoyed the stock as consumers initially spent money on technology and then more broadly on entertainment.

This drove gross margin expansion. The broker also notes The Good Guys was improving prior to the pandemic because of changes to merchandise and this supported sales and margins via premiumisation.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $47.74 Difference: $2.26
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $52.18, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Mirvac Group's FY21 earnings per share (EPS) of 14.0c was 2% ahead of guidance and 1% ahead of consensus and Citi estimates.

While FY22 EPS guidance of at least 15.0c is -4% below consensus, Citi believes this could prove conservative, given Mirvac's earnings visibility is improving, as is the outlook for the residential business.

The broker believes potential earnings tailwinds include improving resi earnings, stronger commercial development profits, additional net operating income from development completions, declining debt costs, and a ramp-up in build to rent.

Neutral rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $2.97 from $2.78.

Target price is $2.97 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Operating earnings per share were less than Macquarie expected in FY21, although adjusting for divestments and additional rent relief it could be described as in line.

Guidance for 2500 residential settlements in FY22 is also below prior expectations. The broker forecasts FY22 operating earnings per share of 15.3c, which is 2% ahead of guidance.

Macquarie envisages upside risk to guidance and, even with the rolling off of commercial profits, expects FY23 earnings will still grow by 10%. FY23 will be driven by an apartment completions and no rental relief.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $3.28 target.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.3
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Overweight (1) -

While Mirvac Group's FY22 earnings guidance was lower than Morgan Stanley expected, the company is guiding to at least 7.1% growth and is setting up active profits in FY23 and beyond after two years of development pipeline reloading. 

The broker notes lower-than-expected earnings guidance was explained by a $600m asset divestment and diluted earnings. Morgan Stanley has revised earnings per share forecasts to 15.3 cents. 

With $1.3bn in sales the company reported its biggest year since FY17, and the broker expects momentum to continue. Profits for FY22 are set to be boosted by the sale of -40% of Locomotive Sheds for $45m, and Mirvac Group has potential to achieve record pre-sales in FY22 for development earnings through to FY25. 

Morgan Stanley's Overweight rating and $3.30 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.32
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Hold (3) -

For Ord Minnett's initial assessment of FY21 results: see yesterday's Report.

The broker believes Mirvac Group is in great shape with a strong balance sheet, growing asset values and a large mixed-use development pipeline with proven delivery capability. Also, apartment and investor demand is considered to be ramping-up.

The above positives are expected to drive a strong earnings recovery over the next three years, and the analyst lifts the target price to $2.90 from $2.60. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MGR as Buy (1) -

FY21 operating earnings per share of 14c was ahead of UBS estimates. FY22 guidance for growth of more than 7% has fallen short of expectations although the broker retains its FY22-24 forecasts, given the underlying health of the business.

UBS retains a Buy rating despite the strong performance recently. Within A-REITs the broker prefers fund managers and developers perceiving challenges ahead for core passive retail and office portfolios and, given this theme, believes Mirvac is well placed. Target is raised to $3.25 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.27
If MGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore volumes are expected to increase materially as Utah Point and Yilgarn hubs ramp and the Ashburton project is developed. Macquarie finds numerous catalyst for Mineral Resources, which expects 11mt from both these hubs in FY22.

The recent acquisition of Red Hill provides potential to underpin a larger Ashburton project while securing the South West Creek offers further upside. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $74 from $73.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $59.94 Difference: $14.06
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.44, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank's third-quarter FY21 cash earnings of $1.7bn were a headline beat but were skewed by a bad and doubtful debt (BBD) write-back.

Core earnings were in line, albeit with softer revenues due to lower markets and treasury income, which is consistent with recent peer results.

Citi has lowered cash earnings estimates by around 2% in the near-term to reflect a softer environment for revenues, but notes the bank appears well-placed to weather industry revenue pressures should cost discipline be maintained.

The Neutral rating is unchanged: The target price is $26.75.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $27.27 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.98, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

After the third quarter update, Credit Suisse increases its FY21 forecasts by 1%, driven by lower bad debts, which is partially offset by lower markets income. FY22 and FY23 earnings forecasts remain unchanged. The target rises to $28.50 from $27.50.. 

The broker sees the bank as a key beneficiary of the second phase of the covid recovery, driven by business reinvestment. The analyst retains the Outperform rating.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $27.27 Difference: $1.23
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.98, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes the bank is progressing well in restoring momentum to its franchise, with increased market share in most lending categories.

At this stage, margins are also being managed better than peers, the broker assesses, and competitive pressures in business banking are lessened. Being underweight cheap deposits, which has hurt returns in the past, also provides additional capacity to benefit from deposit repricing.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $29 from $28.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.27 Difference: $1.73
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.98, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reports National Australia Bank improved momentum in retail and business banking in the third quarter. The bank has grown its annualised rate from -1% in FY20 to 2% in the first half of FY21 and now 10% in the third quarter of FY21. 

The broker notes National Australia Bank is in a strong capital position, and expects the bank to undertake around $7bn in buybacks over the next three years. This implies a further $4.5bn in buybacks in FY23 and FY24 following the already announced $2.5bn buyback. 

While the company's dividend is reporting recovery, the broker notes there is modest revenue growth outlook and limited potential for near-term positive surprise on costs. 

The Equal-Weight rating is retained and the target price increases to $27.90 from $27.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $27.90 Current Price is $27.27 Difference: $0.63
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.98, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Morgans retains its Hold rating and $27.50 target price after third quarter unaudited cash earnings of $1.70bn was announced. There was a credit impairment benefit, with the collective provision coverage of credit risk weighted assets declining -13bps over the quarter.

The broker reduces its FY21 forecast cash EPS by -3% due to a softer-than-expected Markets & Treasury outcome, and after assuming no further provision release in the fourth quarter.

The net interest margin (NIM) increased modestly with lower deposit and funding costs partly offset by the impact of low interest rates combined with home lending competition and mix. This outcome was slightly better than the analyst had forecast.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $27.27 Difference: $0.23
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.98, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

National Australia Bank reported a third-quarter cash net profit of $1.7bn, tracking ahead of Ord Minnett's $3.14bn forecast for the second half due to net provision write-backs.

The broker notes this was a solid update, given strong underlying margin trends, with net interest margin (NIM) increasing slightly (excluding Markets and higher liquid assets), good balance sheet growth, and improved asset quality metrics.

Ord Minnett has lifted cash EPS forecasts by 2.7% in FY21 due to write-backs, and 1.5% in FY22–23, with higher NIM flowing through.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold rating and the target price increases to $28.20 from $27.80.

Target price is $28.20 Current Price is $27.27 Difference: $0.93
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.98, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Newcrest Mining has announced a stage 5 cutback of the West Dome pit at Telfer that will extend the life of the operation by at least two years. Macquarie believes this is a sensible strategy but the cost, at -US$182m, is greater than anticipated.

The broker now assumes another -US$182m in expenditure to support more life extensions before Havieron comes on line.

Macquarie also believes a further cutback of the Main Dome pit could extend open pit ore feed through to FY25, although these ounces are unlikely to generate major returns. Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $30 from $31.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $4.78
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.02, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Newcrest Mining has announced approval of the Telfer open pit stage 5 cutback, ensuring production at the mine for at least two years. 

At a cost of -$245m, it is Morgan Stanley's view that this investment demonstrates the company's confidence in the value of the Havieron deposit in the long-term.

The broker expects the closure of the open pit mine in the fourth quarter of FY23 and the closure of the underground mine in the second quarter of FY22. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.40 from $32.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $32.40 Current Price is $25.22 Difference: $7.18
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.02, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Buy (1) -

In the wake of Northern Star Resource's investor day, Ord Minnett adjusts forecasts after reviewing mineral inventory and cuts life of mine (LOM) production at all assets, excluding Pogo and the Super Pit.

The broker also lowers the peak rate of Super Pit production to 679,000ozpa from 732,000ozpa, ahead of expansion study outcomes. As a result, Ord Minnett's target price falls to $11 from $12.70. The Buy rating is unchanged.

The analyst's earnings forecasts are -11% below consensus for the upcoming FY21 result, with higher depreciation and amortisation (D&A) post the Saracen merger being the key difference.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.25 Difference: $1.75
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Resume Coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS resumes coverage on Premier Investments with a Buy rating and $30 target as it rebuilds coverage of the Australian retail sector. The brands have strong growth potential, opines the broker, notably Smiggle and Peter Alexander.

The broker finds the impact of the pandemic mixed, yet the basis for growth continues despite some risk of a reallocation of expenditure from retail to experiences.

Margin expansion at the EBIT level has been a key positive and, while UBS suspects some retreat in FY22, should continue to reflect the move to online channels, brand shifts and a re-basing of costs.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.15 Difference: $2.85
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.68, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

As Citi expected, QBE Insurance Group's first-quarter rate rise of 8.9%, was beaten in the second quarter with rates rises of 10.6%
with international leading the charge.

Commenting on the result, Citi notes QBE’s result showed ample evidence of the strong top-line growth and improving margins and the broker suspects there is plenty more to come.

The broker has lifted forecasts for both margin and growth with significant 15-24% upgrades to earnings per share (EPS) estimates.

Citi retains its Buy rating and the target price increases to $14.10 from $12.35.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $1.59
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.99, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

According to Credit Suisse, QBE Insurance Group delivered a cracking first half result, with an around 32% EPS beat. There was thought to be strong rate-driven gross written premium (GWP) growth, higher margins, and a cash return on equity (ROE) of 11.9%.

GWP growth was not only rate-driven, with around 7% coming from new business and higher retention, points out the broker. The best-in-decade COR of 93.3% was considered very significant, and a circa 10% improvement from the previous corresponding period.

The first half saw average rate increases of around 9.7%, which are in-line with management's expectations for FY21, and well ahead of expected claims inflation. The broker retains its Outperform rating and lifts its target price to $15.60 from $13.30.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $3.09
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.99, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Neutral (3) -

The strong pricing environment in the first half and positive commentary surrounding reserves and inflation suggests to Macquarie that QBE Insurance may have turned the corner.

The broker notes the stock has now re-rated in line with global peers and maintains a Neutral rating, pointing out a disconnect is beginning to open up between bond yields and the stock price that signals downside risk. Target is raised to $12.40 from $10.10.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.99, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

QBE Insurance surprised Morgan Stanley in its first half results as pricing reaccelerated and margins expanded. First half net profit was well ahead of forecasts.

The broker expects the combined operating ratio can continue to improve into FY23, given the lag to full earnings from price increases. Morgan Stanley raises the target to $14.00 from $12.50 and maintains the Overweight rating. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $1.49
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.99, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

First half profit was comfortably ahead of consensus, while the first half dividend of 11 cents was also above consensus expectations for 8 cents, points out Morgans. The broker notes very strong top-line growth and the best combined ratio (93.3%) in almost a decade.

The analyst lifts earnings forecasts on higher top-line and insurance margin (IM) forecasts, and raises its target price to $13.70 from $12.17 on the earnings changes and a valuation roll forward.

Morgans expects the group's earnings profile to improve strongly over the next few years, with strong rate increases still flowing through the insurance book, and further cost-out benefits to come.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $1.19
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.99, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Accumulate (2) -

QBE Insurance Group posted its strongest first-half margins since 2013 in its first-half 2021 results, with strong growth in gross written premium (GWP), along with solid premium rate and volume growth, expense control, and favourable prior year claims development.

QBE reported net profit of US$441m versus Ord Minnett's forecast US$387m, and Insurance earnings of US$674m versus the broker's US$628m forecast.

In Ord Minnett’s view, the group is still seeking to build reserve strength, which may constrain sharp uplifts in margins in the future. Although the broker notes this should ensure the longevity of returns and reduce the risks of a reset from incoming CEO Andrew Horton when he joins the company in September.

The broker maintains its Accumulate rating and the target price increases to $14.55 from $13.50.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $2.04
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.99, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Top-line growth in the first half beat UBS estimates, despite high expectations. Premium rates remain strong and while there is likely to be some moderation going forward, the broker notes rates are now cycling stronger levels and are still well ahead of claims inflation.

The broker believes the business is in good shape to continue delivering operating momentum and retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $13.55 from $11.50 and 2021 estimates for earnings per share are raised by 49% and 2022 by 8%.

Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $1.04
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.99, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Resume Coverage with Neutral (3) -

As part of the rebuilding of coverage in the Australian retail sector UBS resumes coverage of Super Retail with a Neutral rating and $13.20 target.

The broker notes the business is still anchored by the Supercheap Auto chain while Rebel enjoys growth potential and BCF/Macpac provides leverage to outdoor activities.

The pandemic trends have be supportive, the broker notes, as consumers spent money on preparing for lockdowns. Gross margin expanded significantly because of stock availability and strong demand which reduced promotional depth and frequency across most categories.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: $0.2
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.60, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as No Rating (-1) -

Traffic and earnings were predictably soft in FY21, Morgan Stanley notes with average daily traffic down -0.4% on the prior year and down -9.0% on FY19.

Morgan Stanley considers the roll-out of vaccinations in Australia will be the main driver of a recovery in earnings over the next year.

Post the pandemic, the broker will look at working from home compared with public transit diversion impacts to gauge longer-term traffic growth rates. The broker does not provide a rating or target at present. Industry view: Cautious.

Current Price is $13.49. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra's FY21 results were just below Credit Suisse's estimates. By division, strength in Mobile was more than offset by weaker than expected Fixed-Enterprise. As expected by the analyst, management announced a $1.35bn on-market buy-back.

Guidance for FY22 underlying earnings (EBITDA) were in-line with the broker's and consensus expectations. Credit Suisse lifts its target price to $4.25 from $4.15 and retains its Outperform rating.

The analyst highlights the delivery of FY21 free cash flow ahead of guidance and FY22  guidance well ahead of estimates, which could potentially justify higher dividends. However, it's thought this may be constrained by the availability of franking credits.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.18
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as No Rating (-1) -

FY21 results were ahead of Macquarie's forecasts. Macquarie notes the leading indicator of average revenue per unit (ARPU) increased by more than $3 which underpins growth over the next 12 months.

Cost reductions were also achieved in mobile which the broker expects will continue. Macquarie assesses Telstra's aspirations are getting closer to fruition with FY22 EBITDA guidance for the first time of $7-7.3bn, representing growth of 4-9%.

Macquarie is on research resections and cannot provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $3.97. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

At first glance results are broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. The main surprise was the second half revenue from mobile and EBITDA growth for the first time in 4-5 years.

FY22 EBITDA growth guidance of 4-9% is also a welcome surprise to the broker. A$1.4bn share buyback has been confirmed while options to unlock value continue to be explored. Overweight maintained. Target is $4.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.23
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Add (1) -

According to Morgans, the key highlight in the FY21 result was that mobile services revenue, mobile earnings (EBITDA) and underlying earnings returned to growth (2H21 versus 1H21), and will continue to grow next year. It's considered the first good, clean result in years.

The result, FY22 guidance and confidence in the path to sustainable earnings of $7.5bn by FY23 were in-line with the broker's and consensus expectations. An on-market buyback of $1.35bn was announced and was already in Morgans forecast.

For three reasons the analyst retains an Add rating. Industry dynamics are improving, the sum-of-the-parts is worth more than the current share price and the abovementioned return to growth of underlying earnings. Morgans lifts its target price to $4.34 from $4.19.

Target price is $4.34 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.37
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Telstra Corp’s FY21 result was in line with Ord Minnett’s forecast, with operating earnings of $6.7bn meeting the broker's estimate.

Growth is being driven solely from mobile, with the company reporting positive average revenue per user (ARPU) growth and more subscribers.

The broker notes clear evidence of improvement in Telstra’s full-year result, with operating earnings growing 1% in the June 2021 half - the first half of growth since FY18 - and guidance for it to grow 5–9% in FY22.

While management remains committed to the $7.5–8.5bn operating earnings target for FY23, Ord Minnett believes this relies on significant cost reductions and likely ARPU increases in Fixed.

Ord Minnett maintains its Buy rating and the target price increases to $4.40 from $4.25.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.43
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

FY21 results were significant, UBS suggests, representing an inflection point following years of pressure from the NBN. This also reflects a more rational mobile market where there were relatively low net additional subscribers in the second half.

FY22 guidance implies 5-9% growth in EBITDA and UBS highlights this does not assume the reversal of the pandemic headwinds contained within the FY21 base. A degree of normalisation is expected in FY23.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.03
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Resume Coverage with Neutral (3) -

UBS resumes coverage on Wesfarmers with a Neutral rating and $62 target as part of its rebuilding of coverage in the Australian retail sector.

The broker believes growth at Bunnings, leverage to the strong housing market and a restructure of Target within the Kmart group will be the main drivers of earnings.

Australia's housing market remains strong with significant price appreciation and future indicators remain positive. Conversions of Target to Kmart have also driven significant sales per store.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $64.52 Difference: minus $2.52 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.18, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

Morgans lifts its target price to $2.65 from $2.30 on higher than expected thermal coal prices. Seaborne thermal coal markets are thought to be looking strong into end of 2021 on a confluence of factors including a Chinese domestic supply crisis.

The broker considers cashflow leverage is compelling and looks to finally be getting some market recognition. The company reports on  August 26, and it's felt the focus will likely remain on Narrabri’s recovery and its impact on price realisations.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.28
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.59, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources