Australian Broker Call
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April 11, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BPT - | BEACH ENERGY | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
STO - | SANTOS | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $0.91
Macquarie rates AHY as Resume Coverage with Neutral (3) -
The company has completed the sale of its Australian consumer tissue business. Macquarie estimates transaction costs, environmental indemnity and working capital variation of $30-40m.
Asaleo retains the Australasian personal care and B2B operations as well as the consumer tissue business in New Zealand and the Pacific Islands. Macquarie resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $0.84 target.
Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If AHY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.70 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 16.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.97
Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett believes the life sciences margin growth and sample volume growth in geochemistry in the second half will be key to the investment case when the company reports its FY19 result on May 21. Ord Minnett forecasts a -1% decline in net profit.
The broker envisages an attractive risk/reward ratio heading into the result, maintaining an Accumulate rating and raising the target to $8.45 from $8.29. The life sciences division faces an easy comparable period and management was confident of achieving 50-100 basis points of margin expansion.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.97 Difference: $0.48
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 37.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 254.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.90 cents and EPS of 43.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ASB AUSTAL LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies
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Overnight Price: $2.34
Citi rates ASB as Buy (1) -
Confidence has increased following a visit to Austal's shipyard in Vietnam. Among the items pointed out by Citi analysts, is that employee costs in Vietnam are no more than 10% of comparable costs in Australia.
Add a strategically location and it's pretty straightforward as to why Citi believes this shipyard increases Austal's ability to win work. With the share price trading at a -14% discount to peers, Citi maintains now is an excellent time to start buying Austal shares. Buy. Target price $2.76 (unchanged).
Target price is $2.76 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.42
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 31.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.51
Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie considers regional banks are expensive on a PE and yield basis. The broker reiterates an Underperform rating and $9.50 target. The broker estimates the bank is trading at a relative valuation premium of 26%.
Macquarie acknowledges its analysis does not capture potential future increases in interest rates or cost savings in the outer years, which would provide some offset to higher impairments and mortgage front book normalisation.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.53, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 80.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.1, implying annual growth of -13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 80.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.8, implying annual growth of -2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie has upgraded its 2019 oil price forecast by 9% for Brent and 10% for West Texas Intermediate. The company's petroleum division accounts for 18% of group operating earnings (EBITDA) in FY19.
Buoyant iron ore prices remain the key to earnings upside and Macquarie reiterates an Outperform rating. Target is $41.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $39.66 Difference: $1.34
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.29, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 328.34 cents and EPS of 264.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 275.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 310.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 193.71 cents and EPS of 276.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 295.1, implying annual growth of 7.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.72
Ord Minnett rates BLD as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett believes the valuation discount remains too large for Boral and maintains an Accumulate rating and $6 target. The broker has reviewed conditions in the March quarter in Australia and the US.
Australian conditions appear to have been favourable up until the heavy rain in March in parts of NSW and south-east Queensland. In North America the March quarter was very wet in the west.
Boral, along with its construction materials peers, has signalled that unfavourable weather conditions affected operations in the first half of FY19.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $1.28
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 6.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.96
Citi rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -
On Citi's initial assessment, today's interim report slightly missed expectations, by some -1%, effectively proving that keeping a stringent tab on operational costs is not enough to compensate for top line pressure.
Capital declines have prompted a cut in the dividend with the analysts pointing out the pay out ratio remains a high 82%. Citi analysts believe management's subdued guidance is a source of concern. They anticipate consensus forecasts will have to reset lower post today's release.
Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $0.94
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 82.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of -12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 82.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.9, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BOQ as Underperform (5) -
Macquarie considers regional banks are expensive on a PE and yield basis. The broker reiterates an Underperform rating and $9.00 target. The broker estimates the bank is trading at a relative valuation premium of 12%.
Macquarie acknowledges its analysis does not capture potential future increases in interest rates or cost savings in the outer years, which would provide some offset to higher impairments and mortgage front book normalisation.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $0.04
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of -12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 81.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.9, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.14
Credit Suisse rates BPT as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse models no near-term earnings impact from lower LNG spot prices but increases the target to $2.02 from $1.91 after upgrading its 2019 oil price forecasts and assigning some value for production upside.
Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform as the broker considers the run-up in the share price now more fully reflects the value. The broker likes the company's exposure to the east coast gas market and the growth potential.
Target price is $2.02 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 24.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 16.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 22.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of -8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.01
Deutsche Bank rates CWN as Hold (3) -
No sooner had preliminary discussions been confirmed by Wynn Resorts than the offer was pulled. Deutsche Bank does not believe that Wynn Resorts will walk away from its Crown Resorts bid indefinitely.
The broker remains of the view that Crown is in play with its major shareholder willing to divest at an appropriate price. The broker still considers the offer from Wynn Resorts was opportunistic. Hold rating and $14.75 target maintained.
Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.01 Difference: $1.74
If CWN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.33, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.2, implying annual growth of -30.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.9, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie notes the recent takeover proposal from Wynn Resorts (subsequently pulled by Wynn Resorts). The broker had expected the takeover would be well received by shareholders given the valuation premium of around 26% to the prior close.
Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $14.75 from $12.20.
Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.01 Difference: $1.74
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.33, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.2, implying annual growth of -30.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 60.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.9, implying annual growth of 8.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $43.02
Deutsche Bank rates DMP as Sell (5) -
Domino's Pizza Enterprises has acquired some Danish territory which Deutsche Bank believes could be a good opportunity. Denmark has been a difficult geography for the previous Domino's Pizza operator as well as Pizza Hut.
The broker notes the company has a good track record of developing markets and executing better than its predecessors and competitors, and The Netherlands could be a template for success in this market.
However, with a population of less than 6m the opportunity is small and the 150 store target appears optimistic to the broker. Sell rating and $35 target maintained.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $43.02 Difference: minus $8.02 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.40, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.1, implying annual growth of 21.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.5, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DMP as Lighten (4) -
The company has acquired the Domino's Pizza assets in Denmark for EUR2.5m. Ord Minnett believes this is an opportunistic acquisition, as the company is entering a market with the potential for 150 stores at a low cost. The previous operator has entered administration and ceased trading.
However, the amount of incremental capital and reinvestment in the brand that is required is unknown. Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and $42 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $43.02 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.40, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 123.70 cents and EPS of 173.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.1, implying annual growth of 21.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 141.00 cents and EPS of 201.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.5, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FNP FREEDOM FOODS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $5.13
Deutsche Bank rates FNP as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank was impressed with its visit to the Shepparton facility in Victoria. Management is focused on optimising returns, with the bulk of capital investment on track for completion in FY19.
Management has reaffirmed a strong outlook for UHT milk both domestic and offshore. The company has built an industry-leading nutritional capacity, the broker observes, and it is now up to management to extract value. Buy rating is reiterated. Target is $6.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.87
If FNP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 48.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 101.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IFN as Buy (1) -
Infigen Energy has de-rated materially over the past two years, Ord Minnett observes. This has been driven mainly by lower green certificate prices.
The broker estimates that, if an infrastructure company acquired Infigen at a 30% premium to the current stock price, then signed a $55/megawatt-hour offtake for all uncontracted generation to the next 15 years, it would result in an unleveraged internal rate of return of 7%.
There is also substantially less risk versus building new plants, given the debt would be paid off within 7-8 years compare with 15 in the case of building a new plant. The broker maintains a Buy rating and $0.80 target.
Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.33
If IFN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.00
Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley emphasises that its bull case scenario for Jumbo Interactive (target price under bull case scenario is $35) relies on the successful software sales in the US. The US Department of Justice in January ruled that the Wire Act applies to all forms of gambling, including lotteries, implying that online lottery purchases would be illegal.
However, this has now been clarified, with the government stating the interpretation did not address whether the act applies to state lotteries and vendors. The issue is being reviewed. Morgan Stanley believes regulatory certainty is a prerequisite for adoption.
Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating and $20 target. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.00 Difference: $3
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.30 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LVH LIVEHIRE LIMITED
Jobs & Skilled Labour Services
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Overnight Price: $0.55
Morgans rates LVH as Add (1) -
Morgans observes the company's global growth plans are now fully funded following the recent capital raising. LiveHire has raised $15m to roll out its services to the first major US client, Workforce Logic, and a number of potential distribution partners.
While the higher investment will result in higher short-term costs, at least in FY20 and FY21, Morgans suggests the investment will allow faster revenue growth and higher profit margins in the long run. The broker raises the target to $0.90 from $0.85 and maintains an Add rating.
Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.35
If LVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $39.04
Citi rates MFG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
Citi has downgraded Magellan Financial to Neutral from Buy following a strong share price performance, fueling the view it's time for a breather and the risk-reward proposition has become "less compelling".
Marking to market and accounting for stronger fund inflows has further pushed up earnings estimates. Target price lifts to $39.80 from $35.30.
Citi suggests Magellan Financial needs to add additional growth for further outperformance, but current optionalities require more time.
Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $39.04 Difference: $0.76
If MFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.73, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 171.90 cents and EPS of 185.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.0, implying annual growth of 50.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 179.40 cents and EPS of 194.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.0, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.60
Credit Suisse rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -
Michael Hill International has delivered a weaker trading update versus Credit Suisse expectations. Australia, among the company's key markets, was the only one to report a sequential improvement in same-store sales trends for the nine months to March.
The broker points out first half trading is critical as it typically generates 70-80% of the full year earnings (EBIT). Reflecting changes to forecasts, the broker reduces the target to NZ$0.90 from NZ$0.97. Outperform maintained (purely on cheap valuation).
Current Price is $0.60. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of 404.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 25.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $130.54
Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -
Macquarie Group is buying around $17.5bn of traditional assets under management from Foresters, a US mutual life insurer. The assets are mostly US retail mutual funds with a 50:50 split of equities versus fixed income.
Morgan Stanley considers this a sensible deal, consistent with the strategy of deploying excess capital into bolt-on acquisitions and building out the global operating platform. Overweight rating, $140 target and In-Line industry view maintained.
Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $130.54 Difference: $9.46
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $129.31, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 607.00 cents and EPS of 855.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 858.9, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 583.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 645.00 cents and EPS of 904.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 897.2, implying annual growth of 4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 610.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.00
Credit Suisse rates OSH as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse increases the target to $7.60 from $7.50 after upgrading 2019 oil price forecasts, partly offset by lower LNG spot prices. The company's confirmation of its final interest in the Papua LNG of 17.7% is slightly lower than the broker previously assumed.
The broker envisages a further downside risk to 2019 earnings of -1.6% if LNG prices were to average US$5/MMBtu instead of US$6/MMBtu. Neutral rating maintained.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.61, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.60 cents and EPS of 48.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.23 cents and EPS of 51.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.2, implying annual growth of 3.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $100.55
Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -
The company has experienced another fire at an iron ore screen house at the Dampier port terminal. It remains unclear if loading has resumed, but Morgan Stanley suggests the fact there is no immediate change in production means the impact is unlikely to be material.
Based on initial reports there is no damage to the actual ship loading equipment or quay. Still, the broker believes the incident poses some questions around the sustainability of the level of expenditure on the assets.
Moreover, an elevated iron ore price for an extended period would be unhelpful, as it may trigger a return of mothballed projects that could structurally change the long-term supply and demand balance.
Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating. Target is GBP44. Industry view: Attractive.
Current Price is $100.55. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $94.67, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 479.46 cents and EPS of 950.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 926.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 543.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 436.87 cents and EPS of 724.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 789.5, implying annual growth of -14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 472.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates STO as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Credit Suisse upgrades 2019 oil price forecasts, partly offset by lower LNG spot prices, and increases the target to $6.40 from $6.28.
The broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral because of the difficulty getting the valuation to match the current share price under global oil price assumptions.
Credit Suisse has not changed its view on the fundamentals of the company's business and the scope for growth.
Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.95, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.12 cents and EPS of 68.99 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.58 cents and EPS of 74.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.3, implying annual growth of -1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $35.41
Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse upgrades 2019 oil price forecasts, offset by lower LNG spot prices. The broker envisages further downside risk to 2019 earnings of around -1.7% if LNG prices were to average US$5/MMBtu, instead of US$6/MMBtu.
The broker maintains a positive view on the priority Scarborough project. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $37.60 from $37.64.
Target price is $37.60 Current Price is $35.41 Difference: $2.19
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.61, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 173.10 cents and EPS of 217.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 180.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 185.47 cents and EPS of 232.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 248.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AHY | ASALEO CARE | Macquarie | 0.84 | N/A | - |
ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Ord Minnett | 8.45 | 8.29 | 1.93% |
BPT | BEACH ENERGY | Credit Suisse | 2.02 | 1.91 | 5.76% |
CWN | CROWN RESORTS | Macquarie | 14.75 | 12.20 | 20.90% |
LVH | LIVEHIRE | Morgans | 0.90 | 0.85 | 5.88% |
MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Citi | 39.80 | 35.30 | 12.75% |
OSH | OIL SEARCH | Credit Suisse | 7.60 | 7.50 | 1.33% |
Macquarie | 9.50 | 9.40 | 1.06% | ||
STO | SANTOS | Credit Suisse | 6.40 | 6.28 | 1.91% |
WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Credit Suisse | 37.60 | 37.64 | -0.11% |
Macquarie | 33.90 | 34.20 | -0.88% |
Summaries
AHY | ASALEO CARE | Resume Coverage with Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.91 |
ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.97 |
ASB | AUSTAL | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $2.34 |
BEN | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.51 |
BHP | BHP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $39.66 |
BLD | BORAL | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.72 |
BOQ | BANK OF QUEENSLAND | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $8.96 |
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.96 | ||
BPT | BEACH ENERGY | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.14 |
CWN | CROWN RESORTS | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $13.01 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $13.01 | ||
DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $43.02 |
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $43.02 | ||
FNP | FREEDOM FOODS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $5.13 |
IFN | INFIGEN ENERGY | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.47 |
JIN | JUMBO INTERACTIVE | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $17.00 |
LVH | LIVEHIRE | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.55 |
MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $39.04 |
MHJ | MICHAEL HILL | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.60 |
MQG | MACQUARIE GROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $130.54 |
OSH | OIL SEARCH | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.00 |
RIO | RIO TINTO | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $100.55 |
STO | SANTOS | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.02 |
WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $35.41 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 9 |
2. Accumulate | 2 |
3. Hold | 8 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Thursday 11 April 2019
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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