Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AL3 as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of AML3D with a Speculative Buy rating and valuation of 30c.

The broker highlights the company has key advantages compared with traditional methods with its Arcemy system capable of building certifiable metals parts faster and stronger, and with a lower carbon footprint.

The analyst forecasts a record FY25 revenue of $8.1m and expects it to more than double in FY26 to $18.5m, due to accelerating growth in the US defence market. The analyst sees upside risks to these forecasts.

The company had $32.1m in cash as of end-Dec24 and no core bank debt. The current valuation does not capture upside risks to sales forecasts, the report states.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.145
If AL3 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Alkane Resources and Mandalay Resources have proposed a merger plan that will result in a 55:45 Mandalay/Alkane Resources split in the combined entity.

Bell Potter believes the merger is positive for the company, increasing its production base to multi-asset from a single one, ownership of a processing plant in Victoria, improved net debt position, and significant dilution of the gold hedge book.

The transaction is expected to close in 3Q2025.

The broker's target price is unchanged at $1.40 and is based on the pre-merger valuation. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.69
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees ANZ Bank's Institutional earnings and return on equity having peaked in FY24, forecasting an around -15% decline in earnings by FY26. It's thought return on equity (ROE) will also fall to circa 12% from 14%.

Given the bank's subdued earnings growth outlook and less confidence in capital generation and dividend sustainability, the broker sees limited scope for a share price re-rating.

The analysts see risks in retail bank execution and a cautious revenue environment.

Morgan Stanley cuts its target price to $26.50 from $27.50 and retains an Equal-weight rating. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $28.76 Difference: minus $2.26 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.25, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARB as Sell (5) -

UBS notes the de-rating of ARB Corp's valuation relative to the ASX Small Industrials for 2025 year-to-date by -18% versus -9%, respectively.

The broker believes the de-rating is justified and net profit after tax estimates are below consensus by -5% and -11% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

The lower forecasts are attributed to a weakening Australian aftermarket, elevated levels of cost investment, challenging inventory management on slowing volumes, slight tariff impacts, and an un-hedged currency position.

UBS lowers EPS forecasts by -3% and -8% for FY25/FY26 for a baseline 10% US tariff in FY26 and highlights downgrades to consensus forecasts are expected.

Target price slips to $31 from $34 with a Sell rating retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $31.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.45, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Australian housing churn growth remained robust in the March 2025 quarter, rising 15% and modestly accelerating from 14% in the December 2024 quarter.

The housing data, along with yesterday’s RBA rate cut, bodes well for companies like Beacon Lighting, the analysts suggest.

The Buy rating and $3.96 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.69
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Brazilian Rare Earths signed a binding contract with Senai Cimatec to build a lab and pilot plant in Salvador, Brazil. The cost is -$4m, with Senai contributing -$2.3m, though the company didn't disclose what it would gain from this deal.

Ord Minnett notes the deal aligns with the company's announcement at the AGM, suggesting its ambition in rare earth oxides. But the timeline for plant construction by mid-2026 indicates Monte Alto's scoping study is unlikely before late-2026.

No change to forecasts. Speculative Buy with $7 target price.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $5.1
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 268% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Citi sees medium-term upside for Breville Group through expansion into China, estimating a 0.5% market share could deliver $46m in earnings (EBIT), equivalent to 25% of FY24 group earnings.

The broker highlights a rapidly growing espresso machine segment in China, though household penetration remains low and the broader cooking and food preparation markets present larger near-term opportunities.

Despite strong growth in China’s fresh coffee market, the analysts note consumption remains infrequent, with structural headwinds including a tea-dominant culture.

Brand concentration is flagged as a challenge in non-coffee appliances, while the fragmented nature of the coffee machine market could ease competitive pressure.

Target $38.20. Neutral.

Target price is $38.20 Current Price is $29.88 Difference: $8.32
If BRG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.23, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

UBS, in a quick assessment, reports Catapult International's FY25 result beat earnings expectataions by some 13% driven by strong operating leverage.

The broker notes the Annual Contract Value (ACV) came out a touch below consensus, driven by exit of Russia and FX.

Cash flow is labeled as "solid" at $9m versus $5m the year prior. But there was one clear negative with a higher churn.

UBS only initiated coverage of Catapult International earlier this month with a Buy rating and $5 price target,

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.7
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Buy (1) -

UBS adds Challenger to the APAC key calls list and raises the target price to $9.15 from $7.70, with APRA indicating it is looking at capital changes, which will greatly assist the company.

The broker explains annuities are the most capital-intensive products for Australian financial services, and "regulatory capital" has been the proverbial Achilles' heel for Challenger.

Commentary posits with the transition to retirement products from accumulation in super systems, the capital requirements have stymied innovation and product growth.

APRA is looking to release a public consultation paper in June, which "would lower life insurer capital requirements for annuity products".

UBS expects capital relief will support both notable EPS, DPS, and return on equity upside, alongside structural and regulatory retirement product tailwinds.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $7.15 Difference: $2
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi anticipates upside for shares of Charter Hall Long WALE REIT as falling rates drive earnings (EPS) forecast upgrades of 4% in 2026 and 9% in 2027.

The broker notes the REIT trades at a -14% discount to net tangible assets (NTA) of $4.62, while also offering an attractive forward dividend yield. It's felt asset values could rise, compressing the current implied cap rate of 5.7%.

Management’s defensive tenant base and long lease expiries support income resilience, though Citi flags higher gearing and interest expense as key risks to earnings momentum.

The broker raises its target to $4.40 from $4.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.41
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Add (1) -

Noting the approval by the ACCC of Cleanaway Waste Management's acquisition of Citywide Waste for $110m, Morgans tweaks the target price up to $2.98 from $2.95.

The analyst sees the acquisition as part defensive for the company by protecting the landfill operations while growth-oriented via the expansion of acquired capacity of transfer stations. 

There is no estimated earnings accretion to forecasts, according to Morgans, due to funding costs and lower assets for the transfer period of station redevelopment.

Add rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.98 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.28
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett undertook a deeper analysis of Dexus' model following allegations by the board of Australia Pacific Airports Corp (APAC) that sale of its shares owned by investors representing the company was mishandled.

The company will defend the allegations, but the broker has downgraded forecasts for external funds under management to $34.3bn in FY26 and $35.7bn in FY27 vs $38.9bn as of December 2024.

The downgrade reflects the risk of the company losing the APAC mandate and other risks, including asset sell-downs to manage redemptions related to its infrastructure funds.

Target price cut to $7.40 from $7.70. Rating cut to Hold from Buy, as the broker notes APAC shares accounted for one-third of its external FUM.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.17 Difference: $0.23
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Citi notes a strong start to the June quarter for EVT Ltd's cinema business, with Australian box office revenue up 25% year-on-year to date, driven by the release of 'A Minecraft Movie'. 

New Zealand and German box office takings have also rebounded sharply in the same period, rising 52% and 32% respectively, after soft March quarter results weighed down by unfavourable currency movements, explains the broker.

Per-person food and beverage spend in Australia reached a record high, reinforcing to Citi consumer willingness to spend when compelling film content is available.

Unchanged Buy rating and $16.12 target.

Target price is $16.12 Current Price is $15.28 Difference: $0.84
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.20, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FFM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has a Buy rating and $1.60 target price for FireFly Metals.

The broker notes the company found more evidence of thick high-grade intersections at its Green Bay copper project in Canada, which could potentially boost the current resource estimate.

There is also potential for further expansion at the projection to 4.5Mtpa. Commentary highlights the challenge for the company are high operating costs.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.665
If FFM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 71.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, today's FY25 results by James Hardie Industries, showing adjusted earnings (EBIT) of $863m and profit of $644m, were broadly in line with Citi's forecasts. A soft share price is expected today.

A soft North America exit rate for earnings and cautious FY26 guidance could weigh on sentiment, suggests the analyst.

Fourth-quarter earnings missed the broker's forecast by circa -4%, with sequential declines in volume, sales and profit during a seasonally stronger period. Europe was the only region to exceed expectations.

FY26 guidance for low-single-digit earnings (EBITDA) growth suggests to the analyst an around -5% shortfall versus consensus. 

Citi flags lack of disclosure around long-term incentives and notes missed product mix and incentive targets, adding uncertainty amid a pending corporate deal.

Neutral. Target $43.20.

Target price is $43.20 Current Price is $38.49 Difference: $4.71
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.49, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

UBS's early assessment suggests James Hardie Industries' 4Q earnings proved largely and broadly in line with expectations. See also yesterday's Broker Call Report.

Operations in North America performed softer than expected driven by a lower EBIT margin but the broker notes EBIT at the group level received support from lower corporate costs and a stronger performance from the EMEA business.

Also: FY26 capex guidance of -US$325m is significantly below UBS's -US$500m estimate and consensus' -US$490m. Buy. Target $50.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $38.49 Difference: $11.51
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.49, suggesting upside of 36.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights Kogan.com's second-half FY25 earnings (EBITDA) run rate is tracking around -16% below expectations due to ongoing issues at Mighty Ape and weaker gross margins in the core business.

While Kogan First showed solid sales growth, the broker notes this continues to pressure margins and inflate marketing costs across the broader retail offering.

The broker's earnings forecasts have been downgraded by -7.1% in FY25, -8.1% in FY26, and -4.0% in FY27.

Despite apparent valuation support, the broker cites fierce competition from Amazon and Temu and high customer churn as reasons for a cautious outlook.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and keeps the target price unchanged at $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.88
If KGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

Kogan.com offered a January–April earnings (EBITDA) update of $6.8m, which stands against consensus earnings (EBITDA) of $16m for 2H25, UBS explains, as the earnings run rate is below expectations. The company has ceased to provide quarterly updates.

The broker notes Mighty Ape revenue fell -22% on a year earlier, with negative earnings (EBITDA) affected slightly by website upgrades in February.

NZ marketplace is expected to return to profitability in FY26, while the analyst likes the gross sales growth of Kogan.com of 24%; a good result despite some slowing from January. A price increase for Kogan First boosted those results.

UBS lowers EPS estimates by -11% for FY25/FY26. Neutral retained. Target price slips to $4.90 from $5.20.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.78
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 20.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LGI as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners lowers earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for LGI on the back of weaker electricity prices and volatility, alongside lower Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) due to rising battery capacity.

The broker's earnings estimates are reduced by -1% for FY25 and -6% for FY26 and notes the 14MW Tesla batteries are due to arrive between July and August. Expectations are that they will be more cost-effective than the Bunya pilot.

Future battery lead time is anticipated to be quicker, as Tesla has opened a new Megapack factory in Shanghai.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $3.60 target price are retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.71
If LGI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed earnings estimates for Lendlease Group post the sale of 50% of six UK development projects into a joint venture with The Crown Estate.

The transaction is expected to realise $300m in capital and reduce the funding commitment to the projects to around $125m, the analyst explains.

Ord Minnett believes the transaction is a positive, earning the group a 30% development margin, and the projects will be self-funding.

Lendlease has also secured the management rights to the $1.2bn Aurora Place Building (Sydney) for five years.

The analyst raises FY25 EPS by 5.3% and lowers FY26 by -15.9%. Target price moves to $6.20 from $6.15.

No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.65 Difference: $0.55
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.00, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

At today's investor day, management at Light & Wonder provided a 2028 adjusted earnings (EBITDA) target of US$2bn, in line with Citi's forecast but exceeding the US$1.83bn expected by consensus.

At first glance, the broker notes the company’s target is underpinned by anticipated share gains across each vertical, broader market growth, and improved yields.

Expansion into new US states is seen as a potential source of additional upside to management’s forecasts.

For the Gaming division, management is targeting 400bps of market share gains in the North American premium install base and global gaming sales.

Target $193. Buy.

Target price is $193.00 Current Price is $129.50 Difference: $63.5
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $197.20, suggesting upside of 49.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVF as Buy (1) -

Monash IVF downgraded its FY25 underlying net profit guidance to $27.5m from $30-31m forecast earlier. The company cited soft trading conditions in March and April, with improvement in May not expected to offset that weakness.

The company stated it hasn't yet seen an impact from the embryo transfer error. Bell Potter is encouraged by that comment, but highlights the long-term reputation risk, if any, is difficult to identify now.

The broker cut FY25 forecast to $27.1m, slightly below the company's revised guidance and also lowered FY26 and FY27 forecasts by -10%.

Buy. Target cut to $1.15 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.405
If MVF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Monash IVF lowered its FY25 underlying net profit guidance by around -9.8% from the midpoint of the previous range, and Macquarie cut its forecast to align with the guidance.

The broker has factored in -70bps market share losses in 2H25 (from a 30bps gain forecast before) and expects further losses in FY26 and FY27.

The analyst also expects operating costs to rise as the company increases marketing costs following the recent embryo transfer error and higher salaries to retain staff.

EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26 cut by -9.5% and -17.2%, respectively. Outperform. Target cut to $1.30 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.555
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades Monash IVF to Speculative Buy from Hold as the company has rebased earnings guidance for FY25 and the current valuation is viewed as too low.

Management downgraded net profit after tax guidance by -10% to $27.5m from $30–$31m due to weaker market conditions in March and ongoing deterioration in April.

Interestingly, Monash has not experienced any "material" changes in new patient registrations post the incorrect embryo transfer at a Brisbane clinic.

The broker lowers net profit after tax forecasts by -11% for FY25, which meets the guidance downgrade. Target price is lowered to $1 from $1.09.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.255
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MVF as Buy (1) -

Monash IVF downgraded net profit after tax guidance by -10% at the midpoint and -7% below Ord Minnett's prior forecast for FY25.

Operating conditions in March slowed and deteriorated further in April across all markets, the analyst observes. 

Ord Minnett expects headwinds to continue for Monash IVF until 2H26, when conditions are expected to improve. 

The broker lowers FY25/FY26/FY27 revenue forecasts by -1.5%, and EPS estimates decline by around -8% over the same period.

Target price lowered to $1.05 from $1.10. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.305
If MVF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 44.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -

Citi expects improving housing conditions in Australia to support earnings growth for Nick Scali in 2026, though weaker orders in January and a slower-than-anticipated recovery remain near-term risks.

The refurbishment of Fabb stores in the UK is on track, according to the analysts, with five completed in the second half and expectations for eight to be delivered before year-end.

Freight rates are falling, which could provide margin relief, though Citi warns currency impacts may weigh on reported UK losses.

Buy. Target unchanged at $20.64.

Target price is $20.64 Current Price is $19.04 Difference: $1.6
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.35, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHC as Add (1) -

Morgans notes 3Q25 earnings (EBITDA) from New Hope were below expectations by -15% due to reduced sales volumes of -5% against estimate and weaker realised prices, also below forecast by -5%.

Bengalla's costs were slightly above expectations and earnings (EBITDA) included unfavourable inventory adjustments of -$15m, according to the analyst.

The broker believes coal stocks are being "forgotten" by the market and believes physical coal prices have bottomed. For patient, value-oriented investors New Hope is expected to achieve good dividends in the medium term.

Add rating unchanged, target price trimmed to $4.45 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.77
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Today's interim result by Nufarm was weak, suggests Citi at first glance, and shares will likely ease. Results showed underperformance in Seed Technology and elevated leverage.

Revenue of $1,811m missed forecasts by the broker and consensus by -3% and -2%, respectively.

Given a persistently subdued fish oil price, management has withdrawn its $100m revenue expectation for Omega-3 this year, citing the division’s underperformance as a key driver of elevated leverage.

On the Crop Protection front, the company is contending with multiple headwinds, notes the broker, including ongoing tariff uncertainty and dry conditions in Australia, which together are clouding the near-term outlook.

Sell. Target $3.75.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.33, suggesting upside of 54.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Management at Rio Tinto has agreed to form a joint venture with Codelco to develop the Salar de Maricunga lithium project in Chile, acquiring a 49.99% stake. Rio will make up to -US$0.9bn in phased investment through to 2030.

Citi sees the move as aligned with Rio's strategy to expand its exposure to lithium, a future-facing commodity. There are no expected changes the company's current -US$10-11bn annual capex budget, as the outlay fits within its circa -US$3bn growth allocation.

The broker values lithium exposure at around 5% of the company's attributable enterprise value and suggests project scope and capital intensity may shift as Rio joins the development.

Equal-weight. Target price $119.50.

Target price is $119.50 Current Price is $119.22 Difference: $0.28
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $122.42, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees only modest potential earnings impacts for ResMed based on data from pharmaceutical company Apnimed's Phase 3 results.

The trial was evaluating AD109, an investigational once-daily oral medication for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).

It appears to the broker, the focus of AD109 is on patients who are unable or refuse to tolerate Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) machines.

Industry View: In-Line. Price target US$286.

Current Price is $37.16. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $45.42, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Buy (1) -

The combination of Ramelius Resources and Spartan Resources ((SPR)) is expected to complete in July/August 2025.

Ord Minnett views the transaction favourably and anticipates the stock will re-rate as the market gains greater clarity on the combined group’s outlook.

The broker expects Spartan's Dalgaranga to enhance Ramelius' Mt Magnet’s scale and margins. Group production is forecast to rise by 170% by FY30 and costs (AISC) reduced to circa $1,760/oz, positioning it among the ASX’s lowest-cost producers.

The stock may benefit from a December ASX100 inclusion and the market's preference for quality management and scalable, liquid names, supporting a re-rating toward premium peer multiples, suggests the broker.

Ord Minnett raises the target price to $3.10 from $2.50 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.58
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources' annual resources and reserves statement showed an 8% rise in resources and an 11% increase in underlying reserves.

Macquarie notes the increase was largely due to a lift in Duketon open pit and underground resources. The broker extended the life of mine at the asset by around three years, albeit at higher costs.

The analyst expects the fourth underground mine at Duketon to come online in FY29. The net result is a 1% increase to the broker's FY25-29 EPS forecasts.

Neutral. Target rises to $4.60 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.05
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting downside of -15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers FY26 and FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for Serko by -$13m and -$16m, respectively, due to a weaker outlook for Managed Travel and higher expected product investment.

While the acquisition of GetThere has altered the risk profile, Citi maintains confidence in the long-term opportunity, supported by ongoing strong momentum in Booking.com for Business (B4B).

Despite a weaker performance for GetThere and flat A&NZ revenue growth, Citi sees potential upside if new B4B features improve conversion and US growth resumes post-platform rollout.

The broker does not anticipate a capital raise, citing $61m in net cash and flexibility in platform spend, with cash projected to trough at $40m in 2H27.

Target price shifts to $3.45 from $4.25. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.65
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKO as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Serko's FY25 revenue, excluding contribution from GetThere, came in at $85.7m, at the lower end of the $85-92m guidance.

For FY26, the company guided to revenue of $115-123m, citing lower-than-expected Australasia and North America managed revenues.

This was lower than market forecasts, and Macquarie highlights the company does not expect GetThere's 4Q25 revenue to annualise in FY26 due to soft US trading conditions.

Commentary highlights the forecast of $14m is below the company's base case of $18m at the time of acquisition. The longer-term FY30 outlook was re-iterated. The broker cut EPS forecasts (losses) for FY26-28.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target price lowered to NZ$3.17 from NZ$4.38. 

Current Price is $2.80. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Serko’s FY25 net loss of -$17.2m was wider than expected, but says the market has overlooked the longer-term opportunity tied to the GetThere acquisition and Sabre partnership.

The broker believes Serko is repeating the proven Booking.com playbook of investing now for future platform scale across global corporate travel.

FY25 saw positive free cash flow of $7.4m (excluding GetThere), a major improvement from -$36.8m in FY23, highlight the analysts, underscoring momentum from the Booking.com deal.

Lower-than-expected capex linked to GetThere has left the broker's free cash flow estimates largely unchanged, despite a near-term EPS forecast downgrade for FY26 due to peak amortisation.

Ord Minnett raises the target price to $5.98 from $5.91 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.98 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $3.18
If SKO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SKO as Buy (1) -

UBS re-iterates irs Buy rating for Serko with the company's share price having declined by around -25% since March, attributable to the slowdown in global travel business, notably in the US. There has also been soft commentary from A&NZ peers.

Serko's FY25 revenues of NZ$90m met expectations, rising 27% on a year earlier due to higher volumes through Booking.com for business partnerships. Total online bookings also met expectations and spend rose 10%.

UBS lowers revenue forecasts by -7%, -6%, and -5% for FY26–FY28 due to slower North American volume growth in managed travel (GetThere) due to customer losses and general softness.

Management is anticipated to retain firm cost controls over the next few years. Target price slips to $4.55 from $4.85.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $1.75
If SKO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 68.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Hold (3) -

TechnologyOne's 1H25 result beat Bell Potter's forecasts on revenue, profit before tax (PBT) and normalised profit before tax. Profit margin came in at 28.1% vs the broker's 26.4% forecast.

The analyst believes the company's FY25 PBT guidance of 13-17% growth appears conservative as it implies just 10% growth in 2H. 

The broker is forecasting 19% PBT growth, resulting in a 1% upgrade to the previous FY25 forecast, and a 2% increase to FY26 forecast.

Hold retained. Target rises to $35.5 from $31.00 as the broker raised the valuation multiples for the second time this month.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $36.76 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.87, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TNE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights TechnologyOne's contract pipeline strength is growing, both in terms of geographies and verticals. Significantly, most new deals are larger than the current ARR per customer of $401,000.

The company flagged confidence in managing SaaS-plus margin headwinds, suggesting potential for expansion from here.

The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -2% and FY26 by -3%, reflecting larger deals in the pipeline, but this is offset by near-term margin headwind and shift to higher tax rate.

Neutral. Target price rises to $34.40 from $31.00, underpinned by DCF changes.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $36.76 Difference: minus $2.36 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.87, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TNE as Hold (3) -

TechnologyOne reported 1H25 profit before tax growth of 33% on a year earlier, which came in above both Morgans' and consensus estimates by 10% and 4%, respectively.

The result was assisted by the timing on marketing spend, the analyst notes, and adjusting for that the result was around 23% growth.

The broker acknowledges strong momentum across the business, which infers the FY25 profit before tax guidance of 13%-17% growth looks conservative.

Annual recurring revenue advanced 21%, with the CourseLoop acquisition adding around $9.1m. The UK continued to accelerate growth, up 50% on a year earlier and 24% on the previous half.

Commentary highlights the company achieved key contract wins, including the first Federal Government SaaS-plus win.

Morgans lifts EPS estimates by 1%-3% for FY25–FY26 and raises the target price by 23% to $36.85 for a higher valuation to reflect peer multiples. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $36.85 Current Price is $36.76 Difference: $0.09
If TNE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.87, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TNE as Hold (3) -

TechnologyOne delivered a strong 1H25 result, assesses Ord Minnett, with revenue, pre-tax profit and net profit (after tax) beating consensus by 4%, 6% and 5% respectively. Free cash flow (FCF) of $24m surpassed expectations despite seasonal weakness.

The company upgraded FY25 pre-tax profit growth guidance supported by momentum in its SaaS-Plus model and improved annual recurring revenue (ARR) visibility, explains the broker.

Management reiterated its $1bn ARR target by FY30 and PBT margin ambition of 35%.

ARR growth remained robust across the UK (rising by 50%) and key verticals such as Government (28%) and Education (27%), note the analysts. New wins included TasTAFE and the company’s first London Borough.

TechnologyOne ended the half with $212m in cash and no debt, reflecting strong balance sheet discipline and operating leverage under the SaaS-Plus model, suggests the broker.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target price to $33.04 from $28.44.

Target price is $33.04 Current Price is $36.76 Difference: minus $3.72 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.87, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TNE as Hold (3) -

Shaw and Partners notes 1H25 results for TechnologyOne revealed better than expected growth in revenue and annual recurring revenue, with the company guiding to annual recurring revenue of over $1bn in FY30 and targeted profit margins of over 35%.

Management confirmed it has "clear visibility," the broker explains, and confidence in its pipeline, with recurring revenue expected to grow over the full year.

The analyst lifts revenue estimates but also raises forecast cash costs, which results in estimated lower cash earnings (EBITDA) for FY25–FY27 by -5% to -6%.

Shaw and Partners maintains a Hold rating due to the valuation. Target price is lifted to $36.60 from $29.50.

Target price is $36.60 Current Price is $36.76 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.87, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TNE as Buy (1) -

UBS argues the latest strong 1H25 result from TechnologyOne re-affirms its own conviction on the longer-term growth outlook for the company.

Annual recurring revenue grew 21%, which was in line, and profit before tax rose 33% on a year earlier, some 6% better than UBS' forecast, although the result was attributed to marketing costs moving to 2H25.

Net revenue retention was 118%, in the target range of 115%-120%, due to the success of upselling product and SaaS-plus, with very low churn rates of 0.3% against around 1% typically.

Target price rises 25% to $42.20 from $33.30 due to higher outer-year earnings forecasts and upgrades in the top-line estimates for new products, UK execution and SaaS-plus.

The valuation multiple has also been increased due to UBS' view the valuation can be maintained due to the longer-term growth outlook.

Target price is $42.20 Current Price is $36.76 Difference: $5.44
If TNE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.87, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Australian housing churn growth remained robust in the March 2025 quarter, rising 15% and modestly accelerating from 14% in the December 2024 quarter.

The housing data, along with yesterday’s RBA rate cut, bodes well for companies like Temple & Webster, the analysts suggest.

Buy rating and $21.10 target are maintained. 

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $20.11 Difference: $0.99
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Following Worley's investor day, Citi sees upside as digital innovation supports engineering productivity, though near-term margin benefits remain difficult to measure.

FY25 guidance was reiterated, with targeted earnings (EBITA) growth in the low double digits and margins of 8-8.5%.

The backlog rose $0.3bn quarter-on-quarter to March, supported by sustainability-linked contract wins, which Citi views as a sign of resilience and customer quality.

Revisions to FY25 forecasts include modest upgrades to revenue and margin assumptions, while FY26 forecasts have been trimmed slightly due to timing of project conversion.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $18 target..

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $5.05
If WOR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.09, suggesting upside of 37.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Worley's reaffirmation of FY25 EBITDA growth guidance was in line with its own expectation that any impact of slowing global growth will be seen in FY26.

The broker highlights the company's revenue scope from the CP2 project has reduced as Venture Global is managing some construction in-house.

The analyst estimates the project size for the company is likely $5bn, down from its previous forecast of $6.5bn. Outside of this, the company's sales pipeline is up 14%, the broker observes.

No change to FY25 EPS forecast but FY26 lifted by 1%. Outperform. Target rises to $15.85 from $15.65.

Target price is $15.85 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $2.9
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.09, suggesting upside of 37.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOR as Buy (1) -

At Worley's annual investor day, the company reiterated FY25 guidance and margins and UBS reports management emphasised the growth strategy despite recent share price weakness.

The uncertainty around tariffs and economic growth has impacted oil and global energy services companies, which Worley acknowledged. Well-capitalised customers continue to invest, with backlog up 2.4% in 3Q over 2Q25.

The broker notes pipeline growth of 14% for 3Q25 versus the previous quarter, and bookings for the nine months are 22% higher than a year earlier.

Price target remains at $22.00. UBS believes the stock offers value with a potential boost from the award of the CP2 LNG contract in the US.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $9.05
If WOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.09, suggesting upside of 37.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources