Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ALU as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes there is a close correlation with Altium's boards & systems (BSD) revenue growth to international peers, and their quarterly reports have shown negative growth. The broker believes current consensus of 9% growth for BSD in the June half is overblown.

Macquarie has revised its own forecast down to 5% BSD growth, and at 2% overall revenue growth is below consensus.

Target falls to $25.20 from $25.90, Underperform retained.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $29.63 Difference: minus $4.43 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.55, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold's quarterly report shows its project advancing on all fronts, Macquarie notes, and the miner highlighted that more than 90% of the pre-production capital has been commited or is at an advanced stage, de-risking the execution phase.

Bellevue's balance sheet indicates the project is well funded through to production.

Outperform and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.44
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse adjusts earnings forecasts marginally and the price target for BlueScope Steel for the adjustment in steel prices.

The broker notes its earnings forecasts are at the lower end of consensus for the 1H23.

On balance, Credit Suisse highlights a preference for steel input play Sims ((SGM)), with a weak outlook for steel prices and weakening US demand likely.

A Neutral rating and the price target is reduced to $17.20 from $28.70 to reflect a valuation in line with US peers.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $16.47 Difference: $0.73
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.00, suggesting upside of 38.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BTH as Overweight (1) -

After a contract extension and expansion by Bigtincan Holdings that included Brainshark products, Morgan Stanley suggests a small step has been made to achieving 21% annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth.

Importantly, the analyst notes the contract expansion was first tangible evidence of the company's ability to leverage existing relationships.

The Overweight rating and $1.15 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.49
If BTH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CHL as Add (1) -

Morgans considers the 4Q22 trading update from Camplify as exhibiting "solid growth" post the covid lockdowns and setting the stage for better growth in FY23.

New details were slim picking as a full update had been provided in June.

The broker positively views the long-term outlook for the company from structural tailwinds in the RV marketplace and overseas opportunities for those investors who are prepared to be patient.

The $4.25 price target and Add rating are maintained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $2
If CHL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Underperform (5) -

Capricorn Metals has reported encouraging drill results from both Mt Gibson and Karlawinda and extended its planned drill metres at Mt Gibson.

The company expects a resource update in the September quarter and a maiden reserve at Mt Gibson in October, Macquarie reports.

Cost performance remains key, the broker warns, as do FY23 production and cost guidance.

Neutral and $3.50 target retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.07
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Buy (1) -

While industry feedback suggests demand remains strong, UBS incorporates into Corporate Travel Management's forecasts a slower FY23 topline recovery and higher cost base. Labour scarcity and inflation are creating bottlenecks, explains the analyst.

The broker's EPS forecasts for FY23-25 fall by -12%, -2% and -2%, respectively, and the target slips to $26.35 from $28.20.

While September forward bookings in the US are looking good, the broker notes momentum has slowed after a strong industry recovery in March/April.

Target price is $26.35 Current Price is $17.92 Difference: $8.43
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.22, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DDH as Outperform (1) -

DDH1's FY22 result was a 3% beat on Macquarie which the broker sees as solid given the headwinds of Inflationary pressures, covid absenteeism and mobility restrictions. Macquarie expects some easing over FY23.

A strong demand environment, extra rigs, contract renewals and said easing of headwinds have DDH1 on track to meet the broker's FY23 forecasts. The share buyback and dividend should also support the share price.

Outperform retained. Target fall to $1.10 from $1.50 to reflect lower commodity prices, which could impact on exploration budgets.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.36
If DDH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecasts for Domino's Pizza Enterprises on lower forecast sales growth and the weaker Japanese yen, though feels these changes are already reflected in the share price. The target falls to $88 from $99, while the Buy rating is retained.

The analyst suggests energy costs and wages are weighing on near-term profitability for franchisees, though the company is being active in providing a number of offsets. These include the recently-introduced delivery service fee.

In the broker's view, Domino's Pizza Enterprises represents value when compared to quick service restaurant peers and the US-listed franchisor Domino's Pizza.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $68.47 Difference: $19.53
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $89.19, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

While Flight Centre Travel upgraded FY22 guidance due to a rebound in travel demand, UBS points out reopening capacity across the industry remains constrained. Labour shortages for travel agents, airlines, airports and hotels are the main constraints.

The broker expects labour inflation/scarcity to remain an industry headwind going into FY23. Positive momentum continues for Flight Centre Travel's Corporate business, though the analyst has some doubts around the Leisure business and retains a Neutral rating.

The target price falls to $18.65 from $19.10

Target price is $18.65 Current Price is $16.63 Difference: $2.02
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.16, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNX as Add (1) -

Genex Power reported 4Q22 results in line with Morgans expectations.

The broker notes the takeover offer from Skip Capital Fund and Stonepeak Partners at 23c per share considerably undervalues the company.

Morgans view Genex Power's hydro project positively with the potential to be finished on budget and then providing investors with a 30 year stable earnings stream, once operational in FY25.

The Add rating and the price target price is lowered marginally to 30c from 31c.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.09
If GNX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects peers JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman to post strong FY22 results, based on JB Hi-Fi's recent positive update and the fact consumers were enjoying monetary stimulus through to May.

Guidance will nevertheless be key heading into Christmas, Macquarie warns, in the wake of US retailers being caught out with excess inventory. The broker does not expect much of an inflation impact on consumers at this point, but expects caution to be reflected in guidance.

The broker has increased Harvey Norman earnings forecast to reflect the positive JB Hi-Fi update, but lowered its sector multiple. Target falls to $4.20 from $4.40, Neutral retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.09
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Overweight (1) -

Fourth quarter corporate super inflows for Insignia Financial were a highlight for Morgan Stanley as overall Wealth flows improved, despite tough markets. It's felt investor concerns about the impact of remediations on earnings is overstated and are reflected in the share price.

Asset manager outflows were larger than the broker expected, following two quarters of inflows. Retail was still positive, but institutional  saw -$901m of cash outflow.

Overweight rating and $5.60 target maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $2.7
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.36, suggesting upside of 48.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

While Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating, it's noted Incitec Pivot's manufacturing assets make it the most directly leveraged Australian exposure to higher ammonia prices. This comes after news the Tampa ammonia benchmark price has increased by 15%.

The company's previously announced sensitivities suggests to the broker this month's ammonia price increase would imply an increase in earnings (EBIT) of $107m.

The $4.05 target price is retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.57
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.06, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie expects peers JB Hi-Fi and Harvey Norman to post strong FY22 results, based on JB Hi-Fi's recent positive update and the fact consumers were enjoying monetary stimulus through to May.

Guidance will nevertheless be key heading into Christmas, Macquarie warns, in the wake of US retailers being caught out with excess inventory. The broker does not expect much of an inflation impact on consumers at this point, but expects caution to be reflected in guidance.

Underperform and $40.90 target retained for JB Hi-Fi.

Target price is $40.90 Current Price is $43.17 Difference: minus $2.27 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.69, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett continues to see Lendlease Group as a medium-term recovery stock, though it's difficult to quantify the impacts of cost inflation upon margins. The Accumulate rating is unchanged.

After the broker makes changes to its financial model for the company relating to lower Australian communities settlements and debt costs, the target slips to $12.00 from $12.50.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.81 Difference: $2.19
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.23, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades its rating for Medibank Private to Buy from Neutral after raising FY23-24 EPS forecasts by 9-12% due to favourable growth and margins persisting in the wake of covid. The target price rises to $3.90 from $3.35.

The broker has identified, from its own survey, improved consumer sentiment towards the private health insurance (PHI) value proposition, which should drive above-average policyholder growth. 

In addition, the analyst considers the balance of regulatory risks is now skewed to the upside, and the customer's claims and overall experience will be improved by digital trends.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.46
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Total IVF market cycles were only down -1.6% in June year on year, 9% ahead of Macquarie's forecasts. Second half cycles were thus a 1.6% beat.

Macquarie has maintained its Monash IVF market share assumptions but has reduced assumed revenue per treatment to be in line with FY22 guidance.

The company has a strong balance sheet, Macquarie notes, with recent acquisitions, adding new fertility specialists, expected to be earnings accretive. Outperform and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.15
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.22, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

UBS has identified, from its own survey, improved consumer sentiment towards the private health insurance (PHI) value proposition, which should drive above-average policyholder growth. 

In addition, the analyst considers the balance of regulatory risks is now skewed to the upside, and the customer's claims and overall experience will be improved by digital trends.

The broker lifts its FY23-24 EPS forecasts by 11-22% and raises its target to $7.70 from $7.10 due to favourable growth and margins, which have persisted in the wake of covid. The Neutral rating is maintained. 

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $0.29
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.04, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NTO as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Following a 2Q update by Nitro Software, Morgan Stanley notes ongoing underperformance versus consensus expectations, and now assumes lower growth into FY23-24. The target falls to $1.30 from $2.00 and the rating falls to Equal-weight from Overweight.

Citing macroeconomic challenges and lower than expected synergies from the Connective acquisition, management lowered FY22 annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance to US$57-60m from US$64-68m, while revenue guidance was unchanged, with no explanation given.

Management intends to reduce costs to achieve guidance for a reduced earnings (EBITDA) loss of-US$10-13m, down from -US$15-18m. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.04
If NTO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NTO as Buy (1) -

As part of 2Q results, Nitro Software left FY22 revenue expectations unchanged (in-line with UBS forecast) though annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance was lowered to US$57-60m from US$64-68m.

The broker notes a slower ramp-up of (the recent acquisition) Connective and impacts on the core business, but sales enablement is now mostly complete heading into the 3Q.

Management lowered Connective ARR synergies to US$1.0m from US$2.5m given lengthened sales cycles.

UBS recognises near-term macroeconomic challenges, but feels they are already reflected in the share price. The price target is lowered to $2.30 from $2.50 and the Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $1.04
If NTO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

While Origin Energy has increased its investment (still a 20% stake after a new funding round) in customer management platform Octopus Energy, Ord Minnett feels there is no intention to monetise. It's estimated the stake is currently worth around $1.2bn.

The broker does not explicitly value the stake in its discounted cash flow valuation. The Hold rating and $6.15 target are retained.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $0.31
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.32, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Lighten (4) -

Following 2Q results for OZ Minerals, Ord Minnett maintains its Lighten rating on valuation and sees potential for a further de-rating, despite a -40% share price decline year-to-date. Cost inflation and project execution are considered key risks.

Copper production missed the broker's estimates by -6% due to issues with Carrapateena conveyor and waste dilution, as well as staff shortages, covid impacts and inclement weather.

Lower metal volumes compounded problems for unit costs, which were a -34% miss versus the analyst's estimate.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $17.19 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.12, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as No Rating (-1) -

Perpetual's June quarter update showed outflows of -$4.0bn to Macquarie's -$0.9bn expectation but included a -$1.7bn low-single-digit-margin institutional cash mandate.

Macquarie believes FY22 expense growth is likely to be at the upper end of guidance, placing pressure on FY23 expense growth on much lower starting point for funds under management.

The broker is on research restriction.

Current Price is $28.97. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $33.40, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Perseus Mining's June-quarter update has triggered an upgrade to Buy from Neutral at Citi, but it's more related to the share price response than to the report itself.

Citi considers Perseus Mining a "standout" in its ASX-listed gold coverage with free cash flow estimated at 19% next year versus a mere 5% for the sector in general. Estimates have been culled.

The broker does temper investor enthusiasm by pointing at the High Risk that has been attached to the Buy rating. The company is expected to make a call on Block 14 project in Sudan in H2 2023. Target unchanged at $2.10.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.5
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining reported June quarter production results of 122koz, some -2% below Credit Suisse's expectations.

Operationally, Edikan continued to disappoint due to a maintenance shutdown while Yaoure performed 13% better than the broker's estimates.

Credit Suisse notes its preference for Perseus Mining in the "intermediate" gold stock universe with better earnings stability and the company's location being less susceptible labour and cost pressures.

Outperform rating and a reduction in target price to $2.00 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.4
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining's June quarter report was mixed, Macquarie suggests, with gold production in line, gold sales softer and costs better than expected.

First half FY23 guidance was softer than the broker expected, suggesting a weaker outlook at Edikan and Sissingue partially cushioned by continued strength at Yaoure.

With Perseus now producing from three mines, and with clear exploration potential at Edikan and Yaoure, Macquarie believes the miner to be in a strong position to deliver the development of the Block-14 Gold Project in Sudan.

Outperform and $2.00 target retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.4
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RED as Add (1) -

Red 5's 4Q22 trading update revealed lower than expected gold production of 64.7koz and higher costs, compared to Morgans forecasts.

The brokers earnings forecasts remain unchanged and the analysts will be looking to updates for the ramp up of commercial production at King of the Hills, short cut KOTH.

Overall Morgans assess the KOTH project positively but will be looking to the next year for Red 5 to prove the potential of the large project as a low-cost operation.

The broker maintains its Add rating and reduces the price target to 42c from 48c..

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.18
If RED meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RED as Speculative Buy (1) -

As Red 5 provided preliminary production figures at the beginning of July, there were few surprises for Ord Minnett in 4Q results. The grade ramp-up assumption in FY23 is lowered for the King of the Hills (KOTH) open pit and the target price slips to $0.38 from $0.40.

The broker's Speculative Buy rating is retained as the KOTH operation appears to be tracking in-line with expectations, and the -40% share price fall since May provides value.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.14
If RED meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi analysts observe investors getting more nervous about Aussie gold producers as costs are creeping higher and Citi's in-house forecast has the gold price trending sideways next year.

The good news is Regis Resources' FY23 guidance implies more gold available to be sold, with management also including McPhillamys in its outlook, but not until after FY25.

Citi has pulled back its price target to $1.70 from $1.90 but upgrades to Neutral from Sell following an -18% retreat in the share price. The broker does highlight it does not see "compelling value" on offer.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.12
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

June quarter for Regis Resources came in at 124koz, implying a good finish to a tough year, comments Credit Suisse.

The company also presented on the FY23-FY25 outlook with a target production of 450-500koz which the analysts consider a mixed guidance compared to their expectations.

Credit Suisse reduces earnings forecasts by -7.4% in FY22 and -23.7% for FY23 on forecasts of lower gold prices and higher costs.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target is lowered to $1.80 from $2.10 but risks remain with covid absenteeism and higher costs, reminds the broker.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.22
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

While Regis Resources had already released key June quarter data, production was stronger than Macquarie's previous estimate while costs were in line. FY23 guidance was also in line with forecasts.

With McPhillamys’ approvals advancing slowly Macquarie now expects first gold in mid-FY25. Government approval of the McPhillamys project in NSW remains key to the longer-term outlook and an important potential near-term catalyst.

Also key are gold price and forex movements. Outperform retained, target falls to $2.20 from $2.30 on higher D&A.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.62
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Underweight (5) -

As part of 4Q production results, FY23 gold guidance by Regis Resources was a -10% miss versus Morgan Stanley's forecast and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) were also a -17% miss. In addition, capex guidance was significantly higher than expected.

The broker's target price is lowered to $1.45 from $1.75 to reflect lower spot pricing and the Underweight rating is retained. Industry view: Attractive.

For the fourth quarter, production exceeded Morgan Stanley's expectations, with highlights being 2% and 9% production beats at Duketon North and Duketon South.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Regis Resources produced a better than expected 4Q22 result with 123.9koz produced compared to Morgans estimated 114koz.

The broker notes an increase in costs above guidance over the quarter and welcomes the FY23 to FY25 production outlook of 450-500koz.

Now the company will need to deliver on the growth outlook to build investor confidence management, explains the analyst.

Short term higher costs and labour shortages, in line with other WA producers, remain as earnings risks, Morgans points out.

The target is lowered to $2.02 from $2.05 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold due to weakness in the share price.

Target price is $2.02 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: $0.44
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

South32's 4Q production report was in-line with the expectations held by UBS, and the $5.60 target and Buy rating are maintained. Strong performances from Worsely, manganese and Cannington were offset by weaker base metals and met coal.

The broker points out weaker producer currencies assisted in keeping costs mostly within guidance.

While the analyst forecasts a US14.9c final dividend, there's also potential seen for an extension to the current on-market buyback and/or a special dividend.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $1.93
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 44.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has taken a razor blade to FY23 earnings forecasts post disappointing guidance from competitor Schnitzer in the USA. The broker's forecast for 1H23 results from Sims are now -57% below market consensus at EBITDA level.

Sims share price is highly correlated to scrap metal prices which the broker believes have bottomed and these are in turn linked to the iron and coking coal prices.

The commodities team at Credit Suisse favours iron ore within the commodities group and considers coking coal as trading at an unnecessary discount.

In spite of the -55.4% cut in the FY23 earnings estimates per share, Credit Suisse forecast improving scrap metal prices will offset significant market earnings downgrades.

The price target is lowered to $18.40 from $25.40 and the Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: $4.02
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.86, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SOM as Add (1) -

Morgans viewed the SomnoMed FY22 results positively and in line with expectations, with the company reporting growth in earnings across all regions from an uptick in sales and marketing efforts.

The broker believes investors will increasingly focus on the company's new technology piece which has the potential to develop a new revenue source for SomnoMed.

After assessing the cost of capital and IT assumptions, Morgans analysts lower the price target to $1.91 from $2.51.

An Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.56
If SOM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SQ2 as Buy (1) -

Citi's update on Block Inc is a mix of pros and cons, with ultimately a positive undertone as the analysts suggest the company is setting itself up for another leg to its growth story in FY23.

Shorter term, Citi sees headwinds from bitcoin volatility and decelerating momentum for BNPL.

A lot depends on the integration of Afterpay, but more so on Cash App Commerce, for which timing is difficult, concede the analysts.

Amidst a general reset of expectations (lower in FY22, higher in FY23), Citi's price target pulls back to US$135 from US$185. Buy rating retained.

Current Price is $102.71. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $97.00, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Wine Australia data for 2021/22 show exports down -19%, impacted by China tariffs and covid pressures. However, excluding mainland China, exports rose by 5% to be at the highest level since 2009/10.

The broker notes premiumisation remains evident, with very strong growth in the more than $5/litre category, and Australian exports to the US grew by 9% over the period.

The broker provided no commentary on the impact of the new data upon Treasury Wine Estates. The $13.80 price target and Overweight rating are unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $1.8
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Following the release of Wine Australia export data, UBS observes an increasing skew to luxury/premium within wine exports. Commercial wine is expected to remain subdued due to falling bulk wine prices.

The broker points out Treasury Wine Estates is increasingly skewing its volumes to luxury/premium wine and retains its Buy rating and $13.50 target.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: $1.5
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources