Australian Broker Call
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December 20, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 01:15 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| CMW - | CROMWELL PROPERTY | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| ORE - | OROCOBRE | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| WEB - | WEBJET | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
Overnight Price: $1.66
UBS rates ADH as Buy (1) -
Industry feedback suggests sector momentum has continued into Christmas trading and UBS lifts first half sales estimates to growth of 7% from 5% previously.
The broker believes there is upside risks to forecasts given Adairs' recent top-line strength and does not believe the upside risk is factored into forecasts.
Buy retained. Target rises to $2.10 from $1.65.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.44
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.15
Credit Suisse rates AQG as Outperform (1) -
The company has a maiden reserve of 176,000 ounces at Cakmaktepe, a satellite deposit of Copler. Cash flow is expected in 2019.
Credit Suisse expects guidance with the December quarter result should clarify the oxide production profile. Outperform rating and $5.30 target maintained.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $3.15
If AQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 147% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 73.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.40 cents and EPS of 37.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -32.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AQG as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced a maiden reserve and 70% lift in measured and indicated resources at the Cakmaketepe deposit, a satellite of Copler.
The reserve measures 176,000 ozs of gold from 2.5m tonnes of material at a grade of 2.16g/t. Macquarie expects 2018 to be a tougher year as oxide resources are depleted and the company awaits the commissioning in late 2018 of the sulphide plant.
Outperform retained. Target is $2.90.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.75
If AQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 73.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 52.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -32.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CMW CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $1.03
Morgans rates CMW as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
The company has listed its European real estate investment trust, which has 74 properties. Cromwell holds a 35.8% co-investment in the Singapore listed REIT valued at around EUR310m.
The company has also announced a $170m placement and plans for a share purchase plan in the first quarter, following on from the sale of its stake in Investa Office ((IOF)).
Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add following recent appreciation in this share price. Target is raised to $1.05 from $1.02.
Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.02
If CMW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.99, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of -49.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of -3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $34.33
Citi rates CTX as Buy (1) -
2017 net profit guidance is $600-620m, slightly below Citi's estimates. The broker suspects this is a result of ongoing costs from the franchise review, plus modest margin pressure versus a strong first half.
The broker looks for updates in February for continued cost reductions and the strategy for the Foodary roll out, as well as the outcome of the franchise review.
Buy and $37.66 target retained.
Target price is $37.66 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: $3.33
If CTX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.99, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 235.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 133.00 cents and EPS of 266.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CTX as Outperform (1) -
2017 guidance is strong in refining and soft in supply & marketing, Credit Suisse observes. The company has provided 2017 net profit guidance of $600-620m.
Softer margins in the second half and slightly weaker premium volumes could get the bears excited, the broker asserts.
Yet, Credit Suisse also points out that discounting from Coles ((WES)) led to some of the margin weakness in the third quarter and this trend is likely to reverse.
Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $40.80 from $39.70.
Target price is $40.80 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: $6.47
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.99, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 255.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley notes marketing & supply business has started to decline and there is margin pressure across fuel.
The broker suspects this is the early sign of standardisation, and expects some softening in margins over time as consumption fuels change in Australia.
Underweight rating and $27 target retained. In-Line industry view.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: minus $7.33 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.99, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CTX as Accumulate (2) -
The company has provided 2017 profit guidance which is below Ord Minnett's forecasts because of subdued supply & marketing earnings. The broker observes the company remains in transition, with several strands to its strategy to drive shareholder returns.
The retention of the Woolworths ((WOW)) petrol volumes are now more likely. Ord Minnett finds the core business attractive as refiner margins can support earnings growth and cash generation, and there is the potential to deploy this into higher multiple opportunities.
Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $37.50 from $35.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: $3.17
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.99, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 125.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 246.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CTX as Buy (1) -
Caltex has released 2017 profit guidance with net profit expected to be in the range of $600-620m, 16.4% ahead of 2016.
Though UBS is yet to be convinced the company has optimised its convenience offering, its buy thesis is based on Caltex retaining a fuel supply agreement with Woolworths ((WOW)). UBS awaits a decision from BP as to whether it will challenge the ACCC's recent decision.
Buy. Target is reduced to $39.00 from $39.10.
Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $34.33 Difference: $4.67
If CTX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.99, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 241.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $44.01
Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley observes press reports regarding competitor Retail Food Group ((RFG)) have meant some negative impact on Domino's Pizza share price.
Regardless, the broker considers Domino Pizza's value compelling. Morgan Stanley observes recent press reports which claim widespread problems in the RFG franchise network but believes there are key differences between the two models.
Any increased scrutiny by regulators of the franchise model may also be beneficial for the Domino's business model, in the broker's opinion.
Overweight rating, $53 price target and Cautious industry view.
Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $44.01 Difference: $8.99
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.22, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.4, implying annual growth of 40.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 206.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 200.8, implying annual growth of 22.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHC JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED
Aged Care & Seniors
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Overnight Price: $1.97
Macquarie rates JHC as Outperform (1) -
First half operating earnings are expected to be -15-17% below the prior corresponding half, reflecting weaker occupancy and cost pressures. The company is factoring in a normalisation of occupancy in the second half and expects FY18 operating earnings to be -5-10% below FY17.
Macquarie reduces average occupancy assumptions to 92.5% for the first half and reduces the average revenue per day. Changes result in a downgrade of -8% to FY18 and -6% to FY19 estimates.
Outperform retained. Target is $2.25.
Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.28
If JHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of -16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates JHC as Underweight (5) -
The company has downgraded FY18 expectations, with operating earnings now expected to be -5-10% below FY17. The first half is expected to be -15-17% below the prior corresponding half.
Occupancy and margin pressures raise questions for Morgan Stanley regarding the quality of the portfolio. The broker believes cost reductions and additional services may be harder to deliver versus peers, and the recovery post FY18 will be less pronounced than the share price implies.
Underweight rating retained. Target is $1.60. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If JHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of -16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates JHC as Hold (3) -
The company has downgraded guidance for both the first half and full year results. A severe influenza outbreak across south-eastern Australia meant occupancy dropped to 91.7% at the end of September versus 94.2% at the end of June.
Morgans downgrades net profit estimates by -11.9% for FY18 and by -2.0% and -2.1% for FY19 and FY20 respectively.
Hold rating retained. Target is $2.01.
Target price is $2.01 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.04
If JHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of -16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates JHC as Neutral (3) -
The company has downgraded FY18 operating earnings guidance by -5-10% because of lower-than-expected occupancy. This implies an updated FY18 range of $54.2-57.2m.
Management has blamed a more severe flu season as a key driver of the downgrade which UBS finds curious given the company reiterated guidance as recently as a month ago.
UBS highlights the execution risk on the company's extensive development pipeline, with two brownfield projects slipping from the second half to completion in the first half of FY19.
Neutral retained and target is raised to $1.92 from $1.85.
Target price is $1.92 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If JHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of -16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 17.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC.
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $50.61
Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Overweight (1) -
Dai-Ichi Life has increased its stake in Janus Henderson to 9.6% of around 200m outstanding ordinary shares. This remains short of the company's stated target of 15-20% ownership.
Morgan Stanley believes Dai-Ichi has to disclose changes to ownership positions with greater frequency if its stake rises to over 10% of outstanding shares.
Overweight retained. Industry view is In-Line. Target is raised to $58.50 from $57.00.
Target price is $58.50 Current Price is $50.61 Difference: $7.89
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $51.47, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 157.23 cents and EPS of 313.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 290.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 184.75 cents and EPS of 349.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 340.9, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MMS MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $17.52
Macquarie rates MMS as Neutral (3) -
FY18 earnings guidance is roughly in line with Macquarie's expectations. The company expects first half net profit of $44m and FY18 net profit of $93.6m.
Macquarie observes momentum in the company's largest division has carried through to FY18, with a solid performance in the novated space.
Neutral. Target is raised to $17.78 from $15.46.
Target price is $17.78 Current Price is $17.52 Difference: $0.26
If MMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 111.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.2, implying annual growth of 6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 121.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.4, implying annual growth of 7.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQA MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $6.27
Macquarie rates MQA as Outperform (1) -
US and French taxes are set to change. Macquarie observes Greenway, to date, has not paid tax but changes in interest deductibility to 30% of operating earnings potentially creates a unique situation where tax will be payable for a period of time.
Meanwhile, APRR is directly affected by the super tax which will mean an increase of EUR22m at Eiffarie.
Outperform retained. Target is raised to $6.77 from $6.64.
Target price is $6.77 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.5
If MQA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.40, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 63.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.0, implying annual growth of 283.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of -53.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.89
Morgans rates ORE as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
The company has guided for a price for lithium carbonate above US$11,000/t for the December quarter and now anticipates a price for the June half 2018 that is around 25% above the December half.
Morgans revises its 2018 projection to US$13,750/t and retains that price for three years, suspecting supply will not come on as quickly as previously anticipated.
The broker upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $6.84 from $5.85.
Target price is $6.84 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting downside of -16.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 700.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 59.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.26
Morgans rates RBL as Add (1) -
Data from Google Trends suggests Redbubble is experiencing the best quarter of visitor growth since listing. The 42% growth in visits year-on-year is comfortably ahead of Morgans forecasts.
The broker has not revised FY18 forecasts, but on current trends suspects there is a risk the company will do better.
Add rating retained and target is raised to $1.38 from $1.33.
Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.12
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.36
Morgans rates SXY as Add (1) -
Morgans is increasingly confident in the Western Surat gas project after immediate gas production from the phase 2 drill program came in well ahead of estimates.
The broker believes the consensus is far too conservative in valuing the company's Surat blocks and the gas is considered exceptionally easy to commercialise given its proximity to market.
Add rating retained and target is $0.48.
Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.12
If SXY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.49
Citi rates TAH as Buy (1) -
Citi upgrades FY19-20 forecasts for earnings per share by 3-5% to incorporate the merger with Tatts ((TTS)). Revisions to FY18 are minimal.
The broker continues to assume around $100m in merger synergies but excludes the flagged $500m buyback. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.25.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $0.51
If TAH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.28, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.51
UBS rates WEB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
UBS believes the core B2C business should continue to benefit from the structural shift of bookings transitioning online and the company is also well-positioned to take its share of the $70bn B2B market.
The broker believes FY18 potential is skewed to the upside and the recent downgrade, while disappointing, produced a share price reaction that was overdone.
The valuation is appealing and the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $12.60 from $11.60.
Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: $2.09
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.13, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 42.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of -19.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 57.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 34.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $27.34
Ord Minnett rates WOW as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett updates its model post the ACCC's opposition to BP's proposed acquisition of the petrol operations. The broker now assumes the division is retained.
Meanwhile, a food turnaround at Woolworths is well underway and Ord Minnett is confident the cultural change means this improvement is sustained.
Accumulate rating and $29 target retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.34 Difference: $1.66
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.32, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.2, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 149.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.5, implying annual growth of 10.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| ADH | ADAIRS | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.66 |
| AQG | ALACER GOLD | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.15 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.15 | ||
| CMW | CROMWELL PROPERTY | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.03 |
| CTX | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $34.33 |
| Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $34.33 | ||
| DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $44.01 |
| JHC | JAPARA HEALTHCARE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.97 |
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.97 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.97 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.97 | ||
| JHG | JANUS HENDERSON GROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $50.61 |
| MMS | MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.52 |
| MQA | MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.27 |
| ORE | OROCOBRE | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.89 |
| RBL | REDBUBBLE | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.26 |
| SXY | SENEX ENERGY | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.36 |
| TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.49 |
| WEB | WEBJET | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $10.51 |
| WOW | WOOLWORTHS | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $27.34 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 15 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 4 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Wednesday 20 December 2017
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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