Australian Broker Call

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May 26, 2025

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

3PL  3P LEARNING LIMITED

Education & Tuition

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Overnight Price: $0.64

Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes 3P Learning's trading update pre-announced three FY25 metrics. Revenue is expected to remain flat year-on-year at $110m, slightly above the broker's forecast, and earnings (EBITDA) will grow by at least 20% to circa $14.4m.

The broker highlights this performance as a positive surprise amid softness in consumer markets and product refresh cycles.

Management expects cash on hand between $8-10m versus the analyst's $16m estimate, with attention now turning to R&D capitalisation and working capital changes.

While product improvements and cost discipline are welcomed, Morgan Stanley seeks further evidence these changes are converting to higher sales, adoption of bundles, and improved pricing power.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and a $0.90 target price. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.26
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.55.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $10.24

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the combination of mild weather and relatively low volatility reduces the risk of a positive earnings surprise from AGL Energy in FY25. It also points to a flat outlook for FY26.

The broker notes the default market offer and Victorian market offer are due on May 26, and are unlikely to see a material change relative to the draft.

The next big theme is retail battery adoption, which should be favourable for the company. The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast, but lifted FY26-27 slightly.

Outperform. Target cut to $11.47 from $12.29, given more moderate terminal rates as batteries are viewed as similar to toll roads.

Target price is $11.47 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $1.23
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.71, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 97.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.3, implying annual growth of -6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 95.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.4, implying annual growth of 0.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA  AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $7.15

Macquarie rates AIA as Outperform (1) -

Auckland International Airport published the final discounted pricing schedule in response to the Commerce Commission's decision on its PSE4 pricing.

The airport previously said it would discount airline charges for FY26-27 to reduce the targeted return for the FY23-27 period to 7.82% from 8.73%.

In the final schedule, the airport advised it is weighting the pricing to FY27 to smooth the net profit profile. Macquarie has adjusted forecasts to reflect this, lowering FY27 EPS forecasts but modestly upgrading FY26.

Outperform. Target maintained at NZ$8.63.

Current Price is $7.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.13 cents and EPS of 17.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.58 cents and EPS of 17.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 2.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN  BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $11.86

Macquarie rates BEN as Underperform (5) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 3Q trading update revealed margins were steady quarter-on-quarter, supported by proactive repricing of deposits which mitigated pressure from lower interest rates, explains Macquarie.

The broker notes lending growth continued to exceed deposits but appears to have slowed in line with management’s updated guidance. Credit quality remained strong with negligible charges, aided by lower collective provisioning.

Operating costs came in lower, although a step-up in investment spending is anticipated in the June quarter, contributing to Macquarie's forecast of -5% retreat in earnings in both 2025 and 2026.

Macquarie raises the target price to $10.25 from $10.00 and retains an Underperform rating.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $11.86 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.44, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 84.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 79.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Equal-weight (3) -

After disappointing 1H25 results, Morgan Stanley views Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 3Q25 results as "reassuring."

Net interest income slightly beat the broker's forecast, mortgage growth was ahead, and net interest margin was a tad higher. On the other hand, other income and business loan growth missed expectations.

Overall, the 3Q25 margin and lower costs have comforted the broker.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $10.70.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $11.86 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.44, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's March-quarter update showed cash earnings tracking in line with Ord Minnett's expectation, though underlying softness was evident with revenue down -2.2% versus the H1 FY25 average.

The broker attributes the weak revenue outcome to a -13.6% fall in other operating income, driven by a deliberate slowdown in loan settlements on the HomeSafe platform following repricing efforts to improve returns.

The exit net interest margin (NIM) held steady at 1.87%, as changes in deposit and mortgage pricing offset the impact of lower official rates, explains the analyst.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and maintains the target price at $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.86 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.44, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRL  BATHURST RESOURCES LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $0.70

Ord Minnett rates BRL as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on New Zealand coal producer Bathurst Resources with a Buy rating, citing the stock’s significant valuation discount and strong balance sheet with NZ$135m in cash.

The broker forecasts attributable production growth of 60% to 2.0mt by FY30, supported by key organic growth projects at Buller and Tenas, with margins expected to reach 40% earnings (EBITDA) in FY30, outperforming peers.

The analysts' base case 2026 earnings (EBITDA) are projected at NZ$57m on a conservative met coal price assumption (US$184/t), rising to NZ$94m if prices recover to US$220/t.

The company's historical profitability, low-cost structure, and favourable New Zealand and Canadian royalty regimes underpin an attractive multi-year growth profile, suggests Ord Minnett. The Crown Mountain project is expected to offer further upside.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.4
If BRL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.20.

Forecast for FY26:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF  COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $7.86

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Citi notes update from Restaurant Brands New Zealand ((RBD)) at the AGM that cost-of-living pressures will improve later in the year, and hence recovery will remain gradual.

The broker reckons there is now downside risk to consensus same-store sale forecasts for Collins Foods' KFC Australia business. 

The consensus forecast is for 1.3% growth in 2H25 to 2.4% in 1H26, while the broker's forecast is 1.0%, accelerating to 1.8% in 1H26.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.60.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $1.74
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.20 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of -21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of 36.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DBI  DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $4.10

Morgans rates DBI as Add (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's updated dividend guidance for the 12 months to June 2026 surpassed Morgans expectations, prompting an upgrade of distribution forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 1-2%. Earnings (EBITDA) expectations remain unchanged.

The broker notes the Terminal Infrastructure Charge will rise by 3.6% from July, with the increase slightly ahead of forecasts due to CPI linkage, additional capex, and the QCA levy.

Management re-affirmed its guidance of 3-7% annual DPS growth and a 60-80% payout from Funds from Operations. Management also projected a drop in franking to the mid-30% range by 2026 from 68% in 2024 before recovering later in the decade.

Two major non-expansion capital expenditure (NECAP) projects worth around -$280m are on track and are expected to contribute first revenue in 2027/2028. Morgans explains this will partially offset higher interest expenses from the prior year.

The broker raises its DPS estimate for 2025 to 24c from 23.75c, 2026 to 24.9c from 24.4c, and 2027 to 25.75c from 25.4c.

Morgans retains an Add rating and maintains its target price at $4.35.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.25
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUR  DURATEC LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $1.47

Bell Potter rates DUR as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter explains Duratec's FY25 trading update came in below previous guidance due to delays in project awards and weather impacts over 2H25. The defence and mining sectors were most impacted.

Earnings (EBITDA) guidance range has declined by around -5% to $50m–$53m. The broker points to a better performance from other divisions, like Energy and Building & Facades, in May and expected in June.

Bell Potter lowers EPS estimates by -6.4% in FY25 and -5.3% in FY26. Target price slips to $1.80 from $1.95.

No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.33
If DUR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 19.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates DUR as Buy (1) -

Duratec has downgraded FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance due to project delays caused by wet weather and slower-than-expected Defence and Mining contract awards, explains Shaw and Partners.

Gross margins remain stable and the order book robust, highlights the analyst.

FY25 revenue guidance has been lowered to $570-585m from $600-640m, with earnings (EBITDA) now expected at $50-53m. New guidance implies to the broker 5-11% year-on-year growth and sustained margin discipline at 8.5% in 2H25.

Shaw retains a Buy rating and keeps the target price unchanged at $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.43
If DUR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 25.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 19.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBR  EBR SYSTEMS INC

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $1.21

Bell Potter rates EBR as Speculative Buy (1) -

EBR Systems has raised $56m to support the commercial development of WiSE-CRT, which received FDA approval, Bell Potter highlights.

The equity raising consisted of an institutional placement and share purchase plan at $1 per share, a discount of -12.6% to the 10-day volume-weighted average price.

Post-raising, the company has cash on hand of around US$84m, which represents around six quarters of funding, the broker explains.

Target price rises to $2.25 from $2.23 due to a lower risk weighting. Speculative Buy retained.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $1.04
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.01.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.94.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD  ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $6.60

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Post conference call with company management, Citi analysts report their optimism has risen for the second half, including a now cautiously optimistic expectation regarding an uplift in demand for post-emergent Crop Protection products which are higher margin versus pre-emergent.

Previously, in immediate response to the result release, Citi reported:

Elders' 1H25 earnings report came in below Citi's expectations on first take, with dry weather impacting more than anticipated across Victoria and South Australia.

Weakness in crop protection was the main reason, as drier conditions and increased competition affected the division.

Agency services were above the broker's estimate by 12%, attributed to higher prices and volumes for cattle and sheep, with elevated levels of de-stocking in dry regions. Earnings per bale were also higher.

Real estate recorded a much higher than forecast gross profit of $54m, compared to the analyst's estimate of $41m, due to better conditions for Broadacre, Residential, and Property Management.

Citi expects the shares to trade weaker on the result today.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $3.15
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 51.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 59.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of 105.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 66.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.3, implying annual growth of 21.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT  EVT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $15.12

Morgan Stanley rates EVT as Overweight (1) -

After collaborating closely with its US media analysts and the Australian property team, Morgan Stanley has concluded EVT Ltd is trading in line with the market value of its property portfolio, with zero value ascribed for the cinema business.

The broker believes a meaningful recovery in the cinema business earnings is underway, and the hotel and property assets have several potential positive catalysts. 

The analyst now sees the stock as a high-conviction pick among small-caps. 

Revenue forecast for FY25 lifted by 1.3% and by 2.1% for FY26. EPS forecasts raised by 2% for FY25 and by 5% for FY26.

Overweight. Target price $19. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.12 Difference: $3.88
If EVT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.10, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 805.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 34.90 cents and EPS of 49.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.7, implying annual growth of 69.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL  IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition

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Overnight Price: $8.33

UBS rates IEL as Neutral (3) -

UBS views the 2025 visa updates as mixed for IDP Education, but remains positive on the longer-term story for the company.

The analyst believes the operating environment is better compared to 2H24 but, on balance, remains challenged.

The biggest positive surprise was from the UK, where four months of positive student application data translated into 1Q25 visa issuance growth of 38%, following six consecutive quarters of declines.

UBS believes the UK recovery is the biggest factor in the company achieving or missing 2H25 earnings (EBITDA).

Canada continues to experience negative sentiment, but the broker is hopeful the trend may reverse post-election, both in Canada and Australia.

Neutral rating retained with a $12 target price.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.33 Difference: $3.67
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 81.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of -19.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of 24.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW  LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $128.76

UBS rates LNW as Buy (1) -

UBS suggests Light & Wonder's investor day should lift confidence strong growth for the business doesn't just end in 2025, as the current market multiple implies some doubts.

The broker raises its target to $195 from $192 and maintains its Buy rating. The analysts' initial view last week on the investor day is summarised below.

Management presented three major factors at its Investor Day, UBS reports.

The company's new target is for US$2bn in 2026 adjusted earnings (EBITDA), which sits above the broker's estimate of US$1.77bn, implying a compound average growth rate of around 10% from 2024, and the existing 2025 target.

In land-based, management is aiming for 4 percentage points of market share gains in Gaming by 2028 in North America, with ongoing expansion in adjacent markets such as Nebraska, the EU, and Canada, including charitable gaming via Grover.

Light & Wonder also confirmed it is on track for 2025 adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of US$1.4bn and US$1.36bn pre-Grover. There is no change to the gearing target of 2.5x–3.5x, UBS states.

UBS observes the 2028 earnings target implies upgrades to consensus of 10%-15% and is "bullish," though the bound target is more in line. 

Target price is $195.00 Current Price is $128.76 Difference: $66.24
If LNW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $193.80, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 526.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 874.2, implying annual growth of 52.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY26:

UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 701.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1071.4, implying annual growth of 22.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYR  MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $0.78

Morgan Stanley rates MYR as Overweight (1) -

Myer has returned to sales growth in H2 of 2025, observes Morgan Stanley, with total sales up 1.9% to $837m and comparable sales up 1.5%, outperforming expectations. By contrast, the newly acquired Apparel division continues to underperform.

Margins remain pressured by elevated promotional activity, rising operating costs, and National Distribution Centre issues, explain the analysts.

Despite these headwinds, the broker sees signs of stabilisation and expects growth and margin improvement to resume from 2026.

Upside risk to earnings is noted from internal cost initiatives, debt refinancing, and a potentially more supportive consumer environment.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and a target price of $1.05. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.27
If MYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.16.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.70 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $11.05

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

The price review of the APLNG-Sinopec LNG contract has concluded without arbitration, and Citi estimates the JCC-linked contract slope has reduced by -110bps to 12.5%.

The broker believes this is a fair deal considering broader deflation in LNG contract prices and thinks there's an upside risk from the next price review in 2030, which will be at APLNG's discretion.

The broker cut price assumptions for the contract and lifted capex forecasts for Origin Energy's thermal generation assets. This pushed down FY25-26 core net profit forecasts.

Buy. Target unchanged at $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: $0.45
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.40 cents and EPS of 90.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 11.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 62.20 cents and EPS of 60.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of -27.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Management at Origin Energy expects earnings from Australia Pacific LNG to be lower in H2 of FY25 due to a reduction in the contract gas price following Sinopec’s price review.

The contract slope was reduced to 13% from 13.85% of the Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) price, equating to a -$55m revenue impact for Origin’s 27.5% stake, based on a JCC price of US$80 and an exchange rate of US$0.63, explains the broker.

Note: the slope of an LNG contract refers to the degree of indexation of the gas price to an oil benchmark.

The broker describes the outcome as slightly below expectations and has reduced its FY25 earnings per share forecast by -1.7%, with FY26 and FY27 cut by -2.4% each.

Despite the lower forecasts, Ord Minnett views Origin as a quality operator with defensive characteristics, an appealing dividend yield and long-term upside from the energy transition and Octopus Energy.

The broker trims the target price to $10.40 from $10.50 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $11.05 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 11.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of -27.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC  RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $36.13

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Management at Ramsay Health Care has launched a strategic review of its 52.8% stake in Ramsay Sante. Morgan Stanley sees the potential divestment as a key near-term catalyst though timing remains uncertain.

The broker sees scope for unlocking shareholder value through deleveraging.

Separately, outcomes from Australia’s Fair Work Commission wage review pose an earnings risk, cautions the analyst.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and a price target of $37.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $36.13 Difference: $1.27
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.19, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 85.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.8, implying annual growth of -68.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 144.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.9, implying annual growth of 30.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGH  SGH LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $50.50

Bell Potter rates SGH as Hold (3) -

At the 2025 Investor Day, SGH Ltd outlined earnings before interest and tax growth guidance in the high single digits for FY25, with Bell Potter expecting 9.7% growth and consensus positioned at 12.6%.

The analyst believes the guidance was originally conservative and now sets more realistic expectations.

WesTrac is anticipated to be supported by fleet replacement in the mining sector, with Boral impacted by significant rain events on the east coast in 2H25.

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts due to weaker 2H25 revenue from WesTrac, Boral, and Coates, offset by slightly lower interest costs.

Target price moves to $54 from $54.50. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $50.50 Difference: $3.5
If SGH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.31, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 226.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.3, implying annual growth of 80.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 250.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 255.4, implying annual growth of 12.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ  SMART PARKING LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $0.89

Shaw and Partners rates SPZ as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Smart Parking's trading update shows strong operational momentum, assesses Shaw and Partners, with the US business performing ahead of expectations.

The Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) technology has been rolled out to 15 sites earlier than forecast by the broker.

The company reported 1,678 active sites globally as of April, nearly reaching the June year-end target of 1,687, and re-affirmed its long-term goal of 3,000 sites by December 2028.

The US acquisition, Peak Parking, is delivering to plan, while New Zealand operations are gaining share and generating high-margin growth, highlights the analyst.

No change to Buy, High-Risk rating and $1.25 target.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.36
If SPZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.35.

Forecast for FY26:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.71.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES  WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $82.31

Morgans rates WES as Hold (3) -

Wesfarmers provided no trading update for its retail operations but lowered guidance for the lithium business, projecting a loss of around -$60m in 2025 and a deeper loss in 2026.

Management attributed these losses to weaker spodumene prices and higher costs during refinery ramp-up.

Management appears comfortable with consensus forecasts for the remaining divisions, suggests Morgans. As a result, the broker sees reduced risk of downside surprise in the upcoming FY25 result. The target price rises to $75.80 from $72.05.

The broker notes Bunnings continues to outperform with scope to lift productivity through layout and range improvements, while Kmart’s international expansion is accelerating via Anko-branded products.

Morgans raises its target price to $75.80 from $72.05 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $75.80 Current Price is $82.31 Difference: minus $6.51 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $72.25, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 204.40 cents and EPS of 225.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.1, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 202.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 209.10 cents and EPS of 249.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.7, implying annual growth of 10.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AGL AGL Energy $10.27 Macquarie 11.47 12.29 -6.67%
BEN Bendigo & Adelaide Bank $11.77 Macquarie 10.25 10.00 2.50%
DUR Duratec $1.44 Bell Potter 1.80 1.95 -7.69%
EBR EBR Systems $1.21 Bell Potter 2.25 2.23 0.90%
EVT EVT Ltd $15.51 Morgan Stanley 19.00 13.30 42.86%
LNW Light & Wonder $136.11 UBS 195.00 192.00 1.56%
ORG Origin Energy $10.56 Ord Minnett 10.40 10.50 -0.95%
SGH SGH Ltd $49.86 Bell Potter 54.00 54.50 -0.92%
WES Wesfarmers $82.63 Morgans 75.80 72.05 5.20%
Summaries
3PL 3P Learning Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.64
AGL AGL Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.24
AIA Auckland International Airport Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.15
BEN Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.86
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.86
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.86
BRL Bathurst Resources Initiation of coverage with Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.70
CKF Collins Foods Buy - Citi Overnight Price $7.86
DBI Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Add - Morgans Overnight Price $4.10
DUR Duratec Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.47
Buy - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $1.47
EBR EBR Systems Speculative Buy - Bell Potter Overnight Price $1.21
ELD Elders Buy - Citi Overnight Price $6.60
EVT EVT Ltd Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $15.12
IEL IDP Education Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $8.33
LNW Light & Wonder Buy - UBS Overnight Price $128.76
MYR Myer Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.78
ORG Origin Energy Buy - Citi Overnight Price $11.05
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.05
RHC Ramsay Health Care Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $36.13
SGH SGH Ltd Hold - Bell Potter Overnight Price $50.50
SPZ Smart Parking Buy, High Risk - Shaw and Partners Overnight Price $0.89
WES Wesfarmers Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $82.31
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

14

3. Hold

8

5. Sell

1

Monday 26 May 2025

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.