Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ABC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target for Adbri to $2.30 from $1.80 on an approaching inflection point with a price recovery offsetting costs.

The broker arrives at this conclusion after observing easing energy and diesel costs and noting management commentary in May around price increases that are set to progressively contribute through 2023.

The broker's Equal-Weight rating is retained on concerns residential weakness may impact on demand and potentially test industry price discipline. Cost increases at Kwinana are also considered a concern for gearing levels. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting downside of -20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy (1) -

Aeris Resources has provided a production report for FY23, with both Tritton and Cracow meeting guidance while Jaguar met on copper but missed on zinc. Mount Colin missed expectations because of a toll treatment deferral.

FY23 EBITDA and cost guidance have been withdrawn as a result of the production misses. Bell Potter still expects EBITDA of $49m and considers the production update positive, largely because of the lift in copper production at Tritton. Buy rating and 91c target maintained.

Target price is $0.91 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.5
If AIS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 105.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Outperform (1) -

FY23 production outcomes were softer than Macquarie expected and Aeris Resources has also withdrawn FY23 EBITDA guidance.

While Tritton and Cracow ended the year strongly, Mount Colin and Jaguar were weak because of deferred ore processing at the former and weaker production at the latter.

Regardless, the broker considers the outlook for FY24 positive while reducing estimates for EPS by -33% for FY23 and -14% for FY24.

Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $0.65 from $0.70.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.24
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.82, suggesting upside of 105.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -

New car deliveries for June were up 25% on the previous corresponding period though -2% below the five-year pre-covid average, notes Morgans.

The broker highlights a high variance across original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deliveries continues. It's thought deliveries have moderately exceeded new orders in May/June for dealers, who have experienced a slight reduction in order books.

Softer demand conditions are expected, yet the analysts note an element of protection for near-term earnings from order books compared to other discretionary retail segments.

Morgans suggests Eagers Automotive has more levers to pull on costs and via electric vehicles. After an increased stake in the BYD retail joint venture is also factored in, the target rises to $15.30 from $15.20. Add.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $14.26 Difference: $1.04
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.72, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARB as Hold (3) -

New car deliveries for June were up 25% on the previous corresponding period though -2% below the five-year pre-covid average, notes Morgans.

The broker highlights a high variance across original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deliveries continues. It's thought deliveries have moderately exceeded new orders in May/June for dealers, who have experienced a slight reduction in order books.

For the parts and accessories space, Morgans holds a relatively cautious view on the softer consumer outlook for ARB Corp, compared to  FY24 consensus forecasts.

The Hold rating and $29.05 target are unchanged.

Target price is $29.05 Current Price is $28.26 Difference: $0.79
If ARB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.36, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

Morgans lowers its target for the ASX to $64.70 from $65.90 based on the latest trading activity releases and slightly lower revenue assumptions. Hold.

Target price is $64.70 Current Price is $60.99 Difference: $3.71
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $65.02, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AUB as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Despite a recent increase in multiples for Insurance Brokers on the ASX, Morgan Stanley finds growth remains compelling driven by climate change tailwinds and capital-light exposure to premium rises. Growth via M&A and global expansion is also expected.

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on AUB Group and PSC Insurance with an Overweight rating and founder-led Steadfast Group is given an Equal-weight recommendation on a full current valuation.

The broker considers AUB Group has the best opportunity for earnings growth and yet is cheap compared to peers.

While some investors are cautious around gearing levels after the purchase of Tysers late last year, the analysts believe access provided to the Lloyd's market for cross sell opportunities will outweigh the negatives. A $37 target is set.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $28.74 Difference: $8.26
If AUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.45, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Hold (3) -

New car deliveries for June were up 25% on the previous corresponding period though -2% below the five-year pre-covid average, notes Morgans.

The broker highlights a high variance across original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deliveries continues. It's thought deliveries have moderately exceeded new orders in May/June for dealers, who have experienced a slight reduction in order books.

For the parts and accessories space, Morgans holds a relatively cautious view on the softer consumer outlook for Bapcor, compared to  FY24 consensus forecasts.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target falls to $7.16 from $7.40 due to the broker's lower earnings assumption for the Retail segment on lower demand and margin, and a higher interest rate forecast.

Target price is $7.16 Current Price is $6.04 Difference: $1.12
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.28, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

No changes are made to forecasts for Challenger though the target rises to $7.79 from $7.70 on a valuation roll forward for the broker's financial model.

Target price is $7.79 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $1.39
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.01, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

While the analyst makes only a minor FY23 forecast change for Computershare, FY24 and FY25 forecasts are cut by around -10% on more conservative assumptions for the core businesses. The target falls to $25.10 from $25.86. Add.

However, Morgans highlights forward cash rate projections have increased meaningfully since the company's downgrade to FY24 margin income guidance in May.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $23.22 Difference: $1.88
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.43, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CU6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Clarity Pharmaceuticals will commence a phase 3 trial of its diagnostic for prostate cancer. The trial targets high-risk prostate cancer patients prior to prostatectomy.

The Clarify trial is designed to assess diagnostic performance in detecting pelvic lymph nodes. Currently no marketed MTR products have a label for this indication.

As a result, Bell Potter suggests the product could become highly differentiated from its peers. Earnings are revised for updated timing on expected revenue and this results in material adjustments from FY25.

Speculative Buy retained. Target is reduced to $1.30 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.59
If CU6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Citi considers the customer value proposition of Domino's Pizza Enterprises remains suboptimal while there is increased uncertainty about achieving the 2033 roll-out target of  7100 stores.

Moreover, gearing levels may limit the ability to respond to current challenges and the broker assesses the PE multiple of 25x FY24 does not appropriately cover the risks.

Sell rating reiterated. The $40 target is maintained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $44.69 Difference: minus $4.69 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.17, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

No changes are made to either the broker's forecasts or $1.42 target price for Generation Development. Add.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.14
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Buy (1) -

UBS refreshes forecasts to reflect the market impacts of higher bond yields, although gains in equities have more than offset bond losses in the June half year.

The broker has a positive view on the insurance sector with a preference for private health insurers ahead of brokers and general insurers.

UBS retains a Buy rating for Hub24 and lowers the target to $31.00 from $32.00.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $23.92 Difference: $7.08
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.47, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Citi suspects Insurance Australia Group has decided the trade-off in paying for an aggregate cover as opposed to going without is worthwhile. 

No indication of the cost was provided and the reinsurance in the announcement applies only to the six months ending December 31 2023. There was also no indication of the FY24 perils allowance, which will be announced at the FY23 results on August 21.

Citi finds it difficult to assess, as a result, the full impact of the company's announcement, although it appears clear the combined impact of an increase in reinsurance expense and FY24 perils allowance will be a significant headwind for insurance margins in FY24.

Buy rating and $5.85 target retained.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.12
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes there is upside risk to gross written premium growth, given the strength of the premium rate environment.

Amid the prospect of El Nino providing respite from heavier insurance losses in the next 12 months the broker retains an Outperform rating on Insurance Australia Group and raises the target to $5.80 from $5.70.

Estimates for EPS are upgraded 3.7% in FY23 and 4.9% in FY24.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.07
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

The target for Insurance Australia Group rises to $6.04 from $5.54 on earnings changes and a roll forward to Morgans financial model. Hold retained.

Target price is $6.04 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.31
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -

UBS refreshes forecasts to reflect the market impacts of higher bond yields, although gains in equities have more than offset bond losses in the June half year.

The broker has a positive view on the insurance sector with a preference for private health insurers ahead of brokers and general insurers.

UBS retains a Sell rating for Insurance Australia Group because of a demanding valuation and uncertain outlook. The broker believes margin guidance in FY23 of 10% is a stretch target. Target is raised to $4.80 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes first quarter flows were significantly helped by a large institutional mandate gain get doubts there will be the same support in the second quarter. Janus Henderson only expects 1-2 quarters of positive flows in the next two years.

Still, the equity market performance has been strong and this means the broker lifts estimates for EPS in FY23 by 2% and FY244-25 by 3%.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $41.75 from $40.40.

Target price is $41.75 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: $2.39
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.69, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KSL as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

No changes are made to forecasts for Kina Securities though the target rises to $1.08 from $1.02 on a valuation roll forward for the broker's financial model.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.34
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Magellan Financial experienced further institutional outflows in June while retail overflows were broadly stable. Macquarie estimates around $5bn in institutional funds under management remain in global equities and there is risk of further outflows.

The company delivered around $11m in performance fees in FY23, primarily from 0.9% outperformance in the global fund.

The broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, as the funds management business is considered overvalued while outflows are persisting. Target is reduced to $7.25 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $8.63 Difference: minus $1.38 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.77, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Hold (3) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

No changes are made to either the broker's forecasts or 33c target price for MoneyMe. Hold.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.254
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 334% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MPL as Hold (3) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

Morgans expects solid FY23 Health Insurer results as recent company reporting noted the favourable hospital claims environment remained relatively unchanged.

The target for Medibank Private rises to $3.64 from $3.50. Hold.

Target price is $3.64 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.15
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Buy (1) -

UBS refreshes forecasts to reflect the market impacts of higher bond yields, although gains in equities have more than offset bond losses in the June half year.

The broker has a positive view on the insurance sector with a preference for private health insurers, assessing the tailwinds supporting this subsector are more durable and persistent than the market currently expects.

UBS retains a Buy rating for Medibank Private along with a $4.20 target.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.71
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MTO as Add (1) -

New car deliveries for June were up 25% on the previous corresponding period though -2% below the five-year pre-covid average, notes Morgans.

The broker highlights a high variance across original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deliveries continues. It's thought deliveries have moderately exceeded new orders in May/June for dealers, who have experienced a slight reduction in order books.

Morgans makes significant EPS downgrades across FY23-25 for Motorcycle Holdings on lower earnings assumptions within the New and Used segment, along with increased interest rate and cost forecasts.

The broker's target drops to $2.10 from $2.85. Add.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.575
If MTO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Hold (3) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

Morgans expects solid FY23 Health Insurer results as recent company reporting noted the favourable hospital claims environment remained relatively unchanged.

The target for nib Holdings rises to $8.27 from $7.55. Hold.

Target price is $8.27 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.90, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSI as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Despite a recent increase in multiples for Insurance Brokers on the ASX, Morgan Stanley finds growth remains compelling driven by climate change tailwinds and capital-light exposure to premium rises. Growth via M&A and global expansion is also expected.

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on AUB Group and PSC insurance with an Overweight rating and founder-led Steadfast Group is given an Equal-weight recommendation on a full current valuation.

The broker highlights the "one-team" model for PSC Insurance drives above-peer margins. The attractive margin is thought to derive from 100% ownership of its brokers or "one-team" model.

The analysts apply a -5% discount for the group's illiquid ASX trading noting the stock is held back by a free-float of 50.3% and lack of ASX200 index inclusion. A $5.70 target is set.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.85 Difference: $0.85
If PSI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PWR as Add (1) -

New car deliveries for June were up 25% on the previous corresponding period though -2% below the five-year pre-covid average, notes Morgans.

The broker highlights a high variance across original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deliveries continues. It's thought deliveries have moderately exceeded new orders in May/June for dealers, who have experienced a slight reduction in order books.

Softer demand conditions are expected, yet the analysts note an element of protection for near-term earnings from order books compared to other discretionary retail segments.

In the Auto Retailers space, Morgans considers Peter Warren Automotive is more exposed to cost/inflation/margin normalisation.

The Add rating and $3.20 target are unchanged.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.57
If PWR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 32.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXA as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

Morgans target for Pexa Group falls to $15.07 from $15.11 on lower property settlement forecasts offset by a valuation roll forward of the broker's financial model. Add.

Target price is $15.07 Current Price is $12.50 Difference: $2.57
If PXA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.02, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

The broker's target for QBE Insurance falls to $16.10 from $16.50. Add.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $15.55 Difference: $0.55
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.55, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS refreshes forecasts to reflect the market impacts of higher bond yields, although gains in equities have more than offset bond losses in the June half year.

The broker has a positive view on the insurance sector with a preference for private health insurers ahead of brokers and general insurers, and QBE Insurance is its preference among the three Australian listed general insurers.

UBS retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $18.50 from $18.00.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $15.55 Difference: $2.95
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.55, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REG as Reinstate Coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reinstates coverage of Regis Healthcare with a $2.20 target and a Hold rating. The company is the third largest residential aged care operator in Australia and has a 3% market share.

The broker notes the sector is entering FY24 with an improved funding model and positive supply/demand dynamics. Average daily government funding per resident is set to lift $37 in FY24 with a $23 pass-through to care workers under the award wage decision.

Revenue growth of 15% is expected in FY24. Still, as the share price is up 50% since March the broker envisages limited near-term upside.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0
If REG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources has provided FY23 production that was ahead of Macquarie's estimates. Gold production at Duketon of 90,600 ounces was 6% ahead of expectations which offset production of 31,900 ounces at Tropicana, -5% below estimates.

No update on costs was provided. The broker assesses the company now has two cash-generating assets that will be adequate to fund McPhillamys along with modest debt assistance. Outperform rating and $2.90 target maintained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.955
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Following the release of Q4 and FY23 gold production figures, Morgan Stanley notes FY23 gold production slightly exceeded the broker's forecast but was still within the range of management guidance.

Duketon operations were a 7% beat versus the broker's production forecast, while Tropicana was a slight miss.

FY24 production and cost guidance will be provided with the June quarter report on July 27.

Target $2.25. Overweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.305
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDF as Initiation of coverage with Equal-weight (3) -

Despite a recent increase in multiples for Insurance Brokers on the ASX, Morgan Stanley finds growth remains compelling driven by climate change tailwinds and capital-light exposure to premium rises. Growth via M&A and global expansion is also expected.

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on AUB Group and PSC insurance with an Overweight rating and founder-led Steadfast Group is given an Equal-weight recommendation on a full current valuation.

The analysts like Steadfast Group for its dominant position in the Australian market and notes the company is a strong beneficiary of the current positive pricing cycle. While it's considered early stages, the company has opportunities to grow overseas.

More negatively, the broker reminds investors Steadfast is the best one-stop-shop for broking needs domestically, yet this also results in unusually high corporate costs, which limits margin expansion. The broker sets a $6.40 price target.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $0.55
If SDF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

Citi upgrades subscriber forecasts, noting another strong month for Little Hotelier. Upside risk is envisaged to FY24 property growth forecasts if current trends continue. The broker takes a more conservative view on booking volumes given the slowing macro environment.

Still, with revenue growth of 25% and accelerating subscriber growth the broker reiterates a Buy rating on SiteMinder, reducing the target to $4.75 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $1.76
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 60.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Neutral/High Risk (3) -

Citi downgrades estimates for earnings because of lower metal prices and while Sandfire Resources shares are down -7% over the past three months, in line with copper, remains on the sidelines.

The  broker does not  believe the company will be a likely acquirer of Khoemacau as there is enough organic growth potential to "keep management busy" and at the suspected pricing the acquisition would stretch the balance sheet.

Citi retains a Neutral/High Risk rating. Target unchanged at $6.40.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.68 Difference: $0.72
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIQ as Add (1) -

New car deliveries for June were up 25% on the previous corresponding period though -2% below the five-year pre-covid average, notes Morgans.

The broker highlights a high variance across original equipment manufacturer (OEM) deliveries continues. It's thought deliveries have moderately exceeded new orders in May/June for dealers, who have experienced a slight reduction in order books.

Regarding novated leasing, while Morgans retains a positive outlook for Smartgroup Corp, there is only limited upside to valuation. Electric vehicle demand momentum largely provides upside risk to FY24/25 consensus expectations.

The target rises to $8.25 from $7.50. Add.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.66 Difference: $0.59
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.33, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes there is upside risk to gross written premium growth, given the strength of the premium rate environment.

Amid the prospect of El Nino providing respite from heavier insurance losses in the next 12 months the broker retains an Outperform rating on Suncorp Group and raises the target to $16.60 from $16.30.

Estimates for EPS are downgraded -6.3% in FY23 and upgraded 4.0% in FY24.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $13.51 Difference: $3.09
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.62, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

The broker's target for Suncorp Group is unchanged at $14.32. Add.

Target price is $14.32 Current Price is $13.51 Difference: $0.81
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.62, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi is concerned about the ability of Treasury Wine Estates to manage inflation pressures that impact its cost base and consumer demand. The broker is also aware of the margin downside should volumes moved from the on-premises channel to the off-premises channel.

Citi downgrades to Sell from Neutral although the lifting of tariffs in China represents a risk to the new rating. Nevertheless, any associated earnings rebound is likely to be constrained over the short to medium term by weak consumer sentiment and high inventory levels.

The company is also unlikely to divert wine from other markets where it has been building its brand. The broker reduces FY24 and FY25 underlying net profit forecast by -5% and -7%, respectively. Target is lowered to $10.25 from $12.75.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $10.78 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TYR as Add (1) -

For Insurance/Diversified Financial stocks under research coverage, Morgans broadly reviews its earnings forecasts and marks-to-market for equity, bond yield and exchange rate movements.

The broker sees only limited potential for earnings surprises for these stocks during the upcoming August reporting season given recent updates revealed at the likes of conference attendances.

Off a low base, Morgans downgrades FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts for Tyro Payments by -5-17% on more conservative sales and operating leverage assumptions. The target falls to $1.75 from $1.96. Add.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.61
If TYR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 68.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources