Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Industry coal volumes improved in November, and UBS believes Aurizon Holdings is gaining market share, particularly in Queensland. The broker remains cautious on volumes in the state until the wet season concludes.

UBS retains a Neutral rating. The broker's target decreases to $3.35 from $3.40, reflecting weaker Bulk forecasts, higher depreciation and amortisation, and an extended buyback, partially offset by a valuation roll-forward benefit.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter lowers its target for Buy-rated Boss Energy by -$1.00 to $4.70, applying a highly conservative approach to cost estimates.

The broker felt this same conservatism revealed the value on offer, with the latest share price at $2.51, and notes upside risk to its earnings forecasts.

Given Boss Energy is the second most shorted stock on the ASX, Bell Potter suggests investors holding short positions at this level risk being squeezed if neither costs nor production disappoint.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $2.19
If BOE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 48.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOE as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its 2025 and 2026 uranium price forecasts by -9% and -6%, respectively, to US$78/lb and US$80/lb, citing expectations of supply growth outpacing demand in 2025. The broker plans a more detailed review of fundamentals.

The analyst highlights a false dawn for the uranium market in 2024, with the spot price down -15% year-to-date, but UBS remains structurally positive on the medium to long-term outlook.

The target price for Boss Energy decreases by -3% to $3.40. UBS maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.89
If BOE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 48.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Citi remains cautious on the second-half outlook for Domain Holdings Australia, expecting listings to decline in the fourth quarter of FY25.

The broker's comments follow recent Proptrack data indicating a slowdown in listings growth.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and a $3.20 target.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.64
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Add (1) -

Morgans downgrades Fortescue to Hold from Add with a lowered target price of $20.50 from $21.50.

The stock has rallied 16% since the broker upgraded the company to Add in August. Morgans believes the more stable iron ore prices are discounted in the share price.

Morgans retains longer-term concerns over increased supply in iron ore, flattening of the cost curve, possible returns for Fortescue Future Industries, and addressing governance issues.

Hold rated, target price $20.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $20.22 Difference: $0.28
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage on WA based gold producer Genesis Minerals with a Buy rating, citing confidence in management's clear 10-year outlook on forward production and costs. A $3.20 target is set.

The broker anticipates grade improvements from the Tower Hill operations will move Genesis Minerals down the cost curve to the third quartile.

Analysts expect mine life extensions and the incorporation of additional ore sources into the mine plan.

The Genesis management team is ex Saracen Mineral Holdings, highlights Citi, with a proven track record in delivering production growth and consistently hitting guidance.

Citi remains bullish on gold, forecasting US$2,900/oz within 12 months.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.46
If GMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

GPT announced the establishment of a new retail partnership with the Perron Group earlier today and Citi analysts, in a quick response, highlight today's announcement fits in with GPT's strategic shift towards greater contribution from funds management through co-investment in areas of growth.

GPT will acquire from Perron a 50% interest in two premium Perth retail assets, Cockburn Gateway and Belmont Forum, for approx -$482m.

Citi highlights retail real estate investment has to date resulted in strong growth for the group. Target $4.90. Buy.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.42
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HPI as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans moves to a Hold rating on Hotel Property Investments from Add, with a target price of $3.75, aligned to the current bid price post-payment of a December distribution.

Management offered FY25 dividend guidance of 19.7c, a rise of 3.7% on the previous year, with a 3.3c distribution declared for the Nov/Dec period, and the ex-date on December 30.

1H25 results are due on February 7, 2025. Directors of Hotel Property Investments continue to state the offer from Hostplus and Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR)) undervalues the portfolio. As of December 12, Charter Hall owned 38.34% of Hotel Property Investments.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If HPI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPH as Buy (1) -

An expansion in IPH's buyback program to $75m from $40m (beginning December 12; concluding May 2025) has the potential to raise EPS by up to 3% in the first financial year, according to Ord Minnett.

In light of the company's capital-light business model, the broker considers the buyback a judicious allocation of capital.

Unchanged $6.40 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $1.49
If IPH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting upside of 46.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie resumes coverage of Lendlease Group with a Neutral rating and a target price of $7. The analyst believes the exit from international construction and development should result in improved returns and share price performance.

The key will be capital recycling of $4.5bn over the next five years, with the company committed to an FY25 target of $2.8bn. Of this, $1.8bn has been announced across communities, life sciences, and US military housing, with a one-off earnings contribution of $363m forecast for FY25.

The analyst highlights the execution of the remaining $1.1bn by FY25 as crucial for earnings.

By focusing on Australia, the earnings and risk profile of Lendlease is reduced, Macquarie believes.

Neutral rated. Target $7.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.72 Difference: $0.28
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.96, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi looks at takeaways for NextDC following discussions with the investor relations department at US-based competitor Equinix.

The company representatives stated Hyperscalers are leasing 18 to 24 months in advance as they try to lock-up capacity and noted current procurement is for supply that is coming online in 2027.

The broker views this advanced ordering by hyperscalers as positive for NextDC. The analysts anticipate a 100 MWs deal in FY26 at the earliest given S4 is likely to be live only in 2027.

In another positive for NextDC's KL1 facility, Equinix noted Malaysia is seeing increased demand due to Singapore’s constraints.

Citi maintains a short-term upside call on NextDC, expiring on January 18, with a Buy rating and a target price of $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.51 Difference: $4.49
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.20, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its 2025 and 2026 uranium price forecasts by -9% and -6%, respectively, to US$78/lb and US$80/lb, citing expectations of supply growth outpacing demand in 2025. The broker plans a more detailed review of fundamentals.

The analyst highlights a false dawn for the uranium market in 2024, with the spot price down -15% year-to-date, but UBS remains structurally positive on the medium- to long-term outlook.

The target price for Paladin Energy decreases by -5% to $9.90. UBS maintains a Buy rating.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.59 Difference: $2.31
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.84, suggesting upside of 47.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PTM as Sell (5) -

Following Regal Partners' ((RPL)) decision not to pursue the intended acquisition of Platinum Asset Management, UBS doubts further strategic interest from other parties will emerge.

The broker attributes this potential disinterest to significant revenue attrition from outflows, required product repricing, and challenges potential acquirers face in reducing the cost base.

The target decreases to 64c from 91c as UBS lowers EPS forecasts to account for increasing outflows and negative market-to-market adjustments for November. The broker also factors in a 20c special dividend with an ex-date of December 12.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PWR as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects pressure on new car margins will persist due to industry oversupply partly due to a number of new Chinese OEMs entering the market.

The broker was negatively surprised by the magnitude of falling margins at Peter Warren Automotive as revealed in yesterday's trading update. For 1H FY25, management expects a -100bps fall in margin versus 2H24 to the around 0.6% level.

The broker's price target falls to $1.60 from $1.70. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.1
If PWR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Peter Warren Automotive’s inaugural first-half FY25 profit (PBT) guidance of $6-8m fell materially short of the consensus estimate for $16.6m. Full-year consensus was also previously set at $44.2m.

The broker attributes the miss to a significant decline in new vehicle sales revenue and operating de-leverage.

Management highlighted lower new vehicle sales and an industry-wide oversupply of new vehicles but also reported higher revenues in back-end, used vehicles, and finance and insurance (F&I) segments.

Morgan Stanley maintains a $1.80 target and an Equal-weight rating with an Industry View of In-Line.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.3
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RDY as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of ReadyTech Holdings with an Add rating and a $3.74 target price. The company is a leading software-as-a-service provider of "mission-critical" software for tertiary education, government, justice, and enterprise markets.

Recent financial results support the broker's expectations of a compound average growth rate in earnings of 14.5% over the next few years.

The stock continues to trade at a -20% discount to its historical valuation, which represents "compelling" value according to the analyst.

Add rated. Target $3.74.

Target price is $3.74 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.79
If RDY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 34.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Despite slowing industry listings growth evident in Proptrack data, Citi notes REA Group's revenue is tracking ahead of first-half consensus expectations for 17% year-on-year growth, implying 13% growth in the second quarter of FY25.

The broker estimates REA's new listings are up approximately 5% year-on-year in the second quarter of FY25 to date but remains cautious on the second-half outlook, expecting listings to decline in the fourth quarter of FY25.

Citi maintains a Buy rating and a $230 target.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $236.91 Difference: minus $6.91 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $240.86, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto has approved capex of -US$2.5bn to build 57ktpa of lithium carbonate production at an expanded plant at Rincon, Argentina.

Since the Rincon acquisition, reserves have risen 40%, enough to support a 40-year mine life, the company highlighted.

Citi observes capex of -US$44,000/t of annual output is high compared to traditional brine projects, but broadly aligns with other direct lithium extraction costs. Rincon is part of Rio's target to generate lithium production of around 460ktpa globally.

Neutral rated with a $134 target price.

Target price is $134.00 Current Price is $124.15 Difference: $9.85
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.00, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

To gain a line of sight on CPAP devices market growth, Citi is launching a Sleep Apnea App downloads tracker, noting ResMed's CPAP devices are cloud connectable using the myAir app.

October and November downloads point to strong growth in the US for ResMed, note the analysts, rising by 22% on the previous corresponding period. Ex-US app downloads are up by 31%.

The broker expects ResMed shares will come under short-lived pressure following the expected approval of Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) label expansion for Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide. As a result, Citi opens a negative catalyst watch on the stock.

The analysts continue to view GLP-1s as a potential downside risk for ResMed in the medium-to long-term.

The $38 target and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $37.99 Difference: $0.01
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.12, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the pre-feasibility study (PFS) for the Rebecca-Roe Gold project near Kalgoorlie reveals a potentially robust operation with upside through integrating stranded higher-grade assets.

Management at Ramelius Resources provided FY25 guidance of 270k-300koz at costs (AISC) of $1,500-1,700/oz, compared to Shaw and Partners' forecast of 285koz at a cost of $1,600/oz.

The Buy rating and $2.73 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.33
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Neutral rating and $3.90 price target maintained for South32 as Citi analysts note the Western Australian Environment Minister has agreed with the Appeals Committee's recommendations to amend specific conditions relating to the Worsley mine life extension project.

South32 noted the Minister's determination is consistent with the WA Government's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Policy for Major Projects, with greenhouse gas emissions now to be regulated in accordance with the Commonwealth Government Safeguard Mechanism.

Citi suggests the Federal Minister is likely to sign off on this project in January 2025.

Previous mid-term guidance for Worsley Alumina was for opex of -US$270-$290/t but with the earlier EPA conditions to add a further -US$20-$30/t to costs.

South32 believes the latest recommendation would have resolved the majority of this additional cost which largely related to greenhouse gas emission targets set out under the earlier WA EPA recommendations.

Citi analysts state today's result is as expected given the WA Government had recently aligned itself with the Federal Safeguard Mechanism.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.46
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.99, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Following a period of restriction, Macquarie has a Neutral rating and target price for Stockland at $5.26.

Incorporating the new partnership with Superlai, the broker estimates an annual contribution of around $39m to funds from operations, based on 2,500 settlements and a 20% margin.

The broker observes the Australian housing market appears to be slowing toward the end of 2024, with population growth moderating. The outlook remains dependent on interest rate cuts.

Stockland's key markets of Qld and Vic show some signs of sentiment improving, but settlements tend to skew to 2H, increasing risks for FY25 earnings, the analyst states.

Neutral rated. Target price $5.26.

Target price is $5.26 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: $0.18
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as No Rating (-1) -

Following the declaration of force majeure at the Balama Graphite Operation in Mozambique, UBS places its rating and price target for Syrah Resources under review and withdraws both temporarily.

The broker notes protests after the October elections have triggered events of default on Syrah’s loans with the US International Development Finance Corporation and the US Department of Energy.

Management commentary includes "conditions continue to deteriorate and "that resolution of the Balama protest will take time due to broader unrest and disruptions across Mozambique and the new Mozambique Government not being formed until January 2025."

Current Price is $0.19. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $0.49, suggesting upside of 172.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

UBS analysts highlight management at Telix Pharmaceuticals remains "in busy-mode" for catalysts in 2025 and this underpins their motivation to rate the stock as a Buy. Target price $32.

Precision Medicine has three potential US product launches up its sleeves and for Therapeutics there will be data readouts for all major programs.

No adjustments have been made to forecasts. Buy. Target $32 (US$21 for the US listed shares).

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $24.11 Difference: $7.89
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie estimates an EPS impact of -8% if Ventia Services lost all near-term defence tenders following the ACCC proceedings and believes the -23% fall in the share price is overdone, capitalising the loss of the entire book of defence work.

The Department of Defence is an important customer for Ventia, representing circa 18% of 1H 2024 revenue and slightly less for earnings. Public sector work represents around 75% of the company’s revenue.

The broker leaves earnings estimates unchanged until there is greater transparency around the ACCC court proceedings and highlights  the allegations appear narrow, relevant to specific instances and contracts. Contagion risk to other government contracts at this stage is assessed as limited.

The target price is lowered by -9% to $4.26 due to increased uncertainty and a larger valuation discount to global peers, from -5% to -15%.

No change to the Outperform rating.

Target price is $4.26 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.93
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VNT as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans downgrades Ventia Services to Hold from Add, with the target price slipping to $3.30 from $4.80 following the ACCC's cartel proceedings against the company.

The broker highlights the announcement surprised investors, and the ACCC's statement lacked details to assess any quantitative impacts.

The ACCC has initiated civil court proceedings for alleged price fixing related to estate maintenance and operation services for the Department of Defence.

The broker estimates Ventia earns around $550m in revenue from the department, approximately 9% of total revenue. Beyond the defence department, the company generates around 75% of revenue from the public sector.

Morgans lowers net profit forecasts by -23.6% in 2024 and -17% in 2025.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If VNT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VNT as Hold (3) -

Legal proceedings have been launched by the ACCC against Ventia Services and Downer EDI ((DOW)) alleging price fixing on contracts with the Department of Defence.

Ord Minnett notes heightened risks associated with the future award of defence contracts for both companies.

Defence contracts constitute 17% of Ventia’s revenue and current bidding on projects under the Defence Base Services Contract is valued at approximately $460m, representing about 7% of the company's group revenue, notes the broker.

The analyst also points to a scenario where the impact on future contract awards could be minimal as a complete transition away from Ventia and Downer could be disruptive given they cover all regions except Queensland.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $1.02
If VNT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources