Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates APO as Hold (3) -

The board has agreed to accept a revised takeover bid from JCDecaux. The bid at $6.70 a share is a substantial premium to the pre-bid price.

Morgans believes there is little chance a higher bid will be forthcoming, although considers ACCC approval the biggest risk as the regulator has previously intervened in the outdoor advertising sector.

The broker maintains a Hold rating but suggests some investors may wish to reinvest proceeds before the takeover bid is formally completed. Target is raised to $6.70 from $5.68.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $0.26
If APO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Outperform retained on Alumina, target rises to $3.50 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.73
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AYS as Neutral (3) -

Amaysim's FY18 guidance implies a materially softer mobile result due to competition, the broker notes, which will only intensify with TPG Telecom's ((TPM)) impending launch and Telstra's ((TLS)) new aggressive plans.

The broker cuts forecasts and applies a 25% discount to DCF valuation on competition risk. Target falls to $1.00 from $1.85, Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.16
If AYS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

The shale oil exit and resultant capital management is a near term catalyst for BHP, which the broker suggests has stronger earnings momentum than Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

Outperform retained, target rises to $38.00 from $36.20.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $33.23 Difference: $4.77
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.35, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP, Vale and Samarco have reached an agreement with Brazilian prosecutors regarding the settlement of civil claims. A governance agreement to re-negotiate remediation and compensation programs over two years has been established.

UBS observes, on the positive side, concerns that the agreement would result in a large compensation outcome have not been realised. However, there is no definitive compensation amount as yet nor any timeline for a re-start.

At the end of two years it is unclear whether BHP and Vale will need to pay more. As the outcome is still uncertain the broker has not factored it into forecasts and suggests the market is also not likely pricing in an adverse outcome.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and target of $36.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $33.23 Difference: $2.77
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.35, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Underweight (5) -

Bank of Queensland is re-pricing SVR mortgages by an average of 11.5 basis points, effective early July. All else being equal, this boosts FY19 net interest margin by five basis points and earnings by around 5%, Morgan Stanley assesses.

Nevertheless, the broker envisages earnings headwinds will consume the benefit, including elevated competition for deposits as well as the risk that this price increase lowers mortgage growth, unless other banks also raise rates.

Underweight maintained. Target is $9.50. In-Line industry view retained.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $10.34 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.67, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Sell rating retained with price target left unchanged at $72. Citi analysts continue to have a problem with the sector premium that is still embedded in the share price.

Post the demerger of the wealth management operations (CFS Group), plus some mortgages and minority equity stakes, the dividend payout should rise an estimated 5% and Citi notes this brings CBA in-line with its peers domestically.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $72.81 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.63, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes the proposed de-merger of non-core businesses reduces uncertainty but does not materially change the investment case for Commonwealth Bank.

The broker suggests the new CBA will become even more exposed to retail banking at the end of a super cycle.

Underweight. Price target is $64. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $72.81 Difference: minus $8.81 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.63, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CKF as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

The FY18 result underwhelmed Deutsche Bank as margins were disappointing and comparables soft. Margin weakness in Europe reflected the costs associated with establishing a presence in Germany and the Netherlands, although Deutsche Bank still views this expansion favourably as a long-term strategy.

Meanwhile, recent trading in Australia has been more positive and FY18 will present an easier comparable base. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation. Target is increased to $6.30 from $5.50.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.76 Difference: $0.54
If CKF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CKF as Buy (1) -

FY18 net profit was below estimates because of increased promotional activity in Australia. UBS expects KFC Australia margins to recover through FY19 as management has noted a better second half exit run rate.

The broker also envisages growth opportunities from the store expansion strategy in Europe. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.30 from $6.55.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.76 Difference: $0.54
If CKF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CL1 as Add (1) -

Morgans reduces forecasts and valuation to reflect the possible impact of competitor BGL Corp stepping up defence of its customer base.

While short-term regulatory and competitive pressures have slowed the growth rate, the broker still believes the company can deliver sustained double-digit earnings and free cash flow growth.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.77 from $3.25.

Target price is $2.77 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.24
If CL1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.07, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLQ as Outperform (1) -

Clean Teq's definitive feasibility study for the Sunrise project implies 17% greater capex than the broker had expected and 10% higher production. Higher forecast nickel prices provide an offset to the increased cost.

Solving the funding equation remains the challenge, along with securing offtake agreements for the remaining 80% cobalt and nickel. Outperform retained, target falls to $1.50 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.71
If CLQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DWS as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

The company has acquired Projects Assured for $43m. Ord Minnett found the trading update weaker than expected, although considers the transaction is good for shareholders as it makes sense strategically.

The price is also attractive, provided growth momentum can be sustained. Ord Minnett upgrades FY19 estimates for earnings per share by 13%. The broker upgrades to Hold from Lighten and raises the target to $1.50 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.15
If DWS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Outperform retained on Fortescue, although the broker expects low grade iron ore to remain in a tight range. Target falls to $5.40 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.82
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HT1 as Neutral (3) -

The company will sell Adshel to oOh!media ((OML)) for $570m. The main condition is ACCC approval, which may prove a sticking point, UBS suggests. This is further complicated by JCDecaux' proposed acquisition of APN Outdoor ((APO)).

UBS believes the key to success for both proposals depends on whether the ACCC decides to take a very narrow or very broad view of the market.

Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $2.60 from $1.80.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If HT1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

The company has guided to FY18 platform earnings (EBITDA) of $11.8m but flagged a breakeven result for software, which misses Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker reduces FY19 estimates for earnings per share by -9%, suspecting the company is investing in sales and technical resources at a faster pace than previously expected.

A Buy rating is maintained, as tailwinds are observed to be accelerating in the company's favour and the contraction in revenue margins is priced in. Target is raised to $13.75 from $11.85.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $12.53 Difference: $1.22
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Underperform (5) -

The company will sell the Jaguar zinc/copper mine for $73.2m in cash. This is not a surprise to Macquarie although the sale price is well above its valuation.

Independence Group target rises to $5.10 from $4.60 but Underperform retained on expectation of a weak Q4 production report.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.02 Difference: $0.08
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Neutral retained on Iluka, target rises to $11.90 from $11.00.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: $0.6
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IOF as Underweight (5) -

Sydney CBD values rose 11.6% in May and there was strong interest in Perth properties, as the company revalued 20 assets. Sydney CBD was boosted by 45% uplift at 151 Clarence Street, which is now 83% leased and due for completion in October.

This latest  increase in the portfolio value underlines Morgan Stanley's preference for office over retail A-REITs. Nevertheless, the broker notes the board would most likely still recommend the Blackstone proposal even if refreshed valuations are above the current offer price.

Underweight. Target is $4.60. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If IOF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IOF as Neutral (3) -

The company's asset revaluations indicate pro forma Net Tangible Assets of $5.48, up 11% on the December valuation. UBS assesses that this puts Blackstone's $5.15 bid at a -6% discount to NTA.

The key question for the broker is how the independent expert will view a bid that is now at a discount. Independent directors recently entered into a binding scheme implementation deed with Blackstone. Neutral and $4.44 target retained.

Target price is $4.44 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If IOF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates JHX as Buy (1) -

The company hosted an investor briefing and indicated, while the housing market is turning in Australia, it is continuing to grow through a combination of new products, systems and efficiencies.

Deutsche Bank remains optimistic about US primary demand growth and notes, while the existing Fermacell business is attractive, upside from new fibre cement revenue is largely dependent on R&D development that is some time away.

Target is $25.35. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $25.35 Current Price is $22.36 Difference: $2.99
If JHX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.79, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLL as Outperform (1) -

A strong set of results from Carnegie will lead into the pending scoping study, which may provide material upside from the broker's current valuation.

Outperform and 60c target retained for Kalium Lakes.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.09
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KMD as Equal-weight (3) -

Robust same-store sales and an increase in gross profit margin have resulted in Morgan Stanley upgrading earnings forecasts by 16.1% for FY18.

The broker also expects much of the momentum to hold up in the first half of FY19. The company anticipates FY18 EBIT of NZ$72-77m and net profit of NZ$48-52m.

Morgan Stanley requires more confidence in the sustainable in-store gains and international expansion before becoming more positive on the stock and retains an Equal-weight rating. Target is raised to $2.85 from $2.35. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.19
If KMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LNK as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an Overweight rating and $9.90 target. The broker believes the market is missing the opportunity that exists for Link to build a leading European asset servicing franchise.

Morgan Stanley suggests the market will ultimately unwind the discount on the stock as Europe is a structural growth story and headwinds regarding Australian superannuation reforms can be navigated. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.31 Difference: $2.59
If LNK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.24, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MMS as Neutral (3) -

McMillan has provided updated, unchanged FY18 guidance and announced the exit of the loss-making Money Now business. Write-offs for impairments, goodwill, software capitalisation and other items will be taken below the line.

Neutral and $16.94 target retained.

Target price is $16.94 Current Price is $16.35 Difference: $0.59
If MMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.89, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Equal-weight (3) -

McMillan Shakespeare has confirmed guidance for FY18 net profit of around $93.6m and will exit Money Now, its retail consumer finance business which is currently operating at a loss. Morgan Stanley incorporates the business as effectively written off to the tune of -$5.7m.

The company will also impair its warranty & insurance product business by -$18-24m. The broker considers the latter a symptom of regulatory pressure, but a positive in that the company has been proactive.

Morgan Stanley retains Equal-weight rating, $16.45 target and In-Line sector view.

Target price is $16.45 Current Price is $16.35 Difference: $0.1
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.89, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates MTS as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

On further evaluation of the results Deutsche Bank believes the risks are still to the downside and the cost reductions are no longer sufficient to hold earnings flat.

The usual challenges will also be compounded by the loss of the Drakes contract, while there remains some risk other large retailers may follow.

Rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Under pressure from the Indonesian government Newcrest has been forced to accept, from FY19, an increase in the tax rate to 32% from 25% and the royalty rising to 3.75% from 0.7%. From FY21, the company must divest a further 26% of its ownership in Gosowong to 49% from 75%.

As a mature operation with a short life - Credit Suisse models three years - the impact is considered small and not material to Newcrest.

However, the broker believes it sends a signal regarding Indonesia as a place to invest in exploration or development. Neutral rating and $20.30 target maintained.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $21.36 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.11, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

Media reports suggest the company has acquired the 2019 Australian Open broadcast rights, bringing forward by one year its original 2020-24 tennis deal. Reportedly, the company will pay $48.5m for the 2019 rights, below the $60m per annum average under the original deal.

In factoring in these new rights, Credit Suisse considers the outcome positive because it reduces the risk of Nine Entertainment not having a strong summer schedule in 2019. Still, FY19 operating earnings (EBITDA) are reduced by -3% while FY20 is unchanged.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $2.60 target.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.13
If NEC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting downside of -19.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Forecasts for New Hope remain well below spot suggesting upside risk. Outperform retained, target rises to $3.20 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.23
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts continue to see NRW Holdings as well placed to capitalise on the expected increase in mining construction expenditure.  The Buy call is predicated on the increased mining expenditure underpinned by greenfield iron ore projects in the Pilbara, explain the analysts.

Estimates have been lifted with the stock Citi's preferred way to play the sector, also because it is seen trading at a -28% discount to peers. Price target lifts to $1.85.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.26
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORE as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Outperform retained on Orocobre, target rises to $6.60 from $6.55.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $1.44
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.15, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QAN as Neutral (3) -

UBS suspects a downward trend in earnings combined with tax payments starting in FY19 are likely to mean operating cash flow falls from the current $3.0bn. The broker also expects capital expenditure is likely to rise by $500m per annum from 2020.

This means the forecast free cash flow yield drops to 5% in FY21 from 14% in FY18. Under a constrained outcome for free cash flow, UBS envisages shareholder payments halving to $500m per annum by 2020. Neutral rating and $6.50 target maintained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.33 Difference: $0.17
If QAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.72, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RBL as Add (1) -

Barry Newstead, the current chief operating officer, will replace CEO Martin Hosking from August 1. The current CEO will remain on the board as a non-executive director. Morgans expects changes to strategy or operations to be minimal.

Target is $1.66. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.12
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates RIO as Hold (3) -

After the site trip to Pilbara, Deutsche Bank suspects the company's strategy will not be truly tested, in the eyes of the market, until the next steel market downturn.

The strategy involves a focus on value over volume centring on a flexible system to deliver the required products to market. The company is ahead of its peers in technology and automation and expects, as volumes increase, this will offset inflationary cost pressures.

Hold rating and $89 target maintained.

Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $81.89 Difference: $7.11
If RIO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.06, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Outperform retained on Rio, although the broker prefers BHP ((BHP)). Target unchanged at $94.

Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $81.89 Difference: $12.11
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $88.06, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Regis downgraded to Neutral from Outperform after a strong share price run. Target unchanged at $5.10.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting downside of -20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Outperform retained on South32, target rises to $4.20 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $0.6
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SAR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Saracen downgraded to Neutral from Outperform after a strong share price run. Target rises to $2.10 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

St Barbara downgraded to Neutral from Outperform after a strong share price run. Target unchanged at $4.70.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Neutral retained for Sandfire, target rises to $9.20 from $8.30.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $9.50 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting downside of -20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

Forecasts for Whitehaven remain well below spot suggesting upside risk. Outperform retained, target rises to $5.80 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $0.17
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -

The broker notes the commodity price upgrade cycle rolls on, in adjusting price forecasts. The most significant upgrades are for nickel, alumina, iron ore and manganese.

 Outperform retained for Western Areas, target rises to $4.40 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.88
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting downside of -11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources