Australian Broker Call
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September 24, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
TWE - | Treasury Wine Estates | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $14.13
Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -
The Tomago Smelter is looking to renegotiate its electricity hedge contract with AGL Energy and AGL has ceased a joint plan for supplying electricity to the Portland Smelter in Victoria. Morgan Stanley estimates AGL provides a total of circa 13TWh to these smelters and guesses the contract prices to be around $60-65/MWh.
The broker's least unfavourable scenario has AGL negotiating contract extensions with minimal price changes while the bear case scenario sees the closure of smelters followed by exit from the coal plants which will affect the net profit.
Noting downside risk skew to AGL from "smexit" uncertainty, Morgan Stanley reiterates its Underweight rating with a target price of $14.14. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $14.14 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: $0.01
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.94, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.4, implying annual growth of -36.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 86.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of -16.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BKW BRICKWORKS LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $18.86
Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -
Upon initial assessment, Citi finds today's FY20 release by Brickworks missed the mark by -7% as far as Citi's forecast goes, or by -2% versus market consensus.
Adjusted for lower investment returns, Citi finds the performance was more or less in-line.
The analysts flag they intend to retain the Buy rating. The company's outlook might still look uncertain (no guidance), Citi notes the order book is improving, boosted by Home Builder and pent up demand in the US.
Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $18.86 Difference: $0.14
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.23, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 107.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.7, implying annual growth of -13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.5, implying annual growth of -42.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $8.80
Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley remains comfortable with its cautious view on Dexus Property despite some pushbacks over its call to downgrade Dexus to Underweight.
The broker highlights with increasing unemployment, rising vacancy and net effective rents going down, the company is not appealing on a 6-12 months view. This view is corroborated looking at a 4.2-year weighted average lease expiry (WALE).
Morgan Stanley would become more bullish when rental declines have flushed through the market from December 20 onwards.
The broker reaffirms its Underweight rating. The target price remains unchanged at $8.15. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.35, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.30 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of -32.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 45.10 cents and EPS of 64.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of -1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $15.98
Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -
Since the start of September, the price of iron ore has declined by -7% which in Ord Minnett’s view, could snap back higher due to the increasing steel production in China. The rising covid-19 levels will slowdown recovery in the world (ex-China steel) steel output and create price tension, the broker expects.
In a spot scenario, Ord Minnett expects Fortescue Metal Group's dividend yield for FY22 to rise with FY22 earnings more than double the consensus.
Buy recommendation maintained with a target price of $20.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.98 Difference: $4.02
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.03, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 265.33 cents and EPS of 325.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 267.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 16.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 250.59 cents and EPS of 224.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.8, implying annual growth of -37.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 207.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 13.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.19
Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -
Glencore will extend the life of the Mount Isa copper smelter beyond 2022. The smelter supplies around 50% of Incitec Pivot's sulphuric acid requirements at Phosphate Hill.
Morgan Stanley assesses the announcement provides certainty of supply for at least three years to 2025 and removes a potential negative for the company, otherwise Incitec Pivot would need to source sulphuric acid externally with a substantial increase in costs.
Equal-weight rating. Target is $2.25. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.06
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 21.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
KMD KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED
Sports & Recreation
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Overnight Price: $1.08
Credit Suisse rates KMD as Outperform (1) -
Operating earnings and net profit were ahead of Credit Suisse expectations in FY20 and also beat guidance. No dividend was declared but the company expects dividends will resume in FY21.
Based on current forward orders Kathmandu anticipates second half wholesale orders will be in line with pre-pandemic levels. Gross margins are also expected to improve by the second half.
Credit Suisse now expects Kathmandu will be net cash in FY21 and reiterates an Outperform rating because of the appealing valuation, earnings growth and dividend yield. Target is raised to NZ$1.70 from NZ$1.55.
Current Price is $1.08. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.47 cents and EPS of 10.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of 49.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -
FY20 results were ahead of expectations, supported by cost controls and government assistance. Wholesale order books for Rip Curl and Oboz are improving for the second half and the Kathmandu brand will resume offshore expansion post the pandemic.
Still, Macquarie is wary because of industry feedback regarding the highly competitive and brand-centric outdoor consumer segment offshore. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $1.15 from $1.09.
Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.07
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.02 cents and EPS of 5.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.51 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of 49.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.21
Citi rates LVT as Neutral (3) -
LiveTiles’s FY20 result points to a slowdown in organic revenue growth in the second half, observes Citi. The decline, driven by the lower subscription revenue, was offset by an increase in services revenue driven by the Wizdom and CYCL acquisitions.
The broker notes LiveTiles’ June quarter was adversely impacted by enterprise customers but expects trading conditions to improve with economies opening up.
With IT budgets under pressure in the near term, Citi prefers to be cautious and has lowered its FY21-22 revenue forecasts to reflect a slower conversion of annual recurring revenue to revenue.
Citi maintains its Neutral rating with the target price reducing to $0.25 from $0.30.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.04
If LVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.34
Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -
Nufarm released FY20 profits in-line with its own guidance, meeting Citi's forecast albeit with the additional remark the underlying net loss from continuing operations turned out larger than expected; -$81m versus -$69m.
Operations in ANZ surprised on the upside and Citi notes operations in Europe are looking towards a better performance in FY21. Seed Technologies, on the other hand, proved a disappointment.
Citi lauds the balance sheet ("in good shape"). Buy rating retained. Target falls to $5.30 from $5.60.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.96
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse found no surprises in the FY20 result at an aggregate level as it was pre-guided. The broker considers the expansion of profit improvement initiatives incrementally positive.
These were expanded to include expenses reductions in Europe, North America and corporate business in addition to the previously-announced manufacturing plant closures.
While savings of $35-40m are guided, the broker points out there is likely to be some offsets such as increase in R&D expenditure. Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $5.07 from $5.04.
Target price is $5.07 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.73
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 20.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NUF as Neutral (3) -
After "messy" FY20 Macquarie forecasts $9m in reported net profit in FY21 amid the impact of higher depreciation & interest costs and despite an expected $95m increase in continuing business operating earnings.
To become more positive the broker requires delivery on the earnings potential, as the company has fallen short of expectations in recent years. Easing raw material costs should assist. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.26.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.16
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 19.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley expects earnings will improve from a difficult FY20. Results were in line with previous guidance. Europe was the key area of earnings weakness but management is confident that FY20 will be the trough.
Nufarm has also secured the first commercial sale of omega-3 canola oil to a global salmon producer and expects the initial contract will generate $30m in revenue. This brings the business a little closer to unlocking attractive potential, Morgan Stanley suggests.
Overweight. Target is $4.80. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.46
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NUF as Add (1) -
Nufarm reported a weak FY20 result, which according to Morgans was partly due to poor seasons, increased competition and covid-19. It was also considered due to rising input and manufacturing costs. The broker notes Europe’s performance was disappointing.
Morgans continues to expect FY20 will prove to be the trough in the earnings cycle and forecasts strong earnings growth over FY21-FY23. The analyst believes this will be driven by improved seasonal conditions in Australia and Europe and a recovery in T&O sales as pandemic restrictions ease.
Other drivers are considered to be benefits from the performance improvement program (PIP), reduced supply constraints and cost pressures and a contribution from Omega-3 canola oil and carinata as they scale.
The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $5.10 from $$4.85.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.76
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NUF as Hold (3) -
Nufarm's FY20 operating earnings were in line with Ord Minnett’s estimate with a higher tax expense leading to a higher than expected net loss. No dividend was announced.
Management’s outlook commentary highlights improved conditions across all regions in FY21 except for North America Turf and Ornamental.
Ord Minnett expects a recovery in FY21 performance assuming more normal weather patterns and estimates earnings before interest and tax of $212m by FY23. Cash generation is expected to improve materially over FY21–22.
The broker is not comfortable with Nufarm's exposure to Europe and retains its Hold recommendation with the target price increasing to $4.70 from $4.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.36
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NUF as Buy (1) -
Nufarm's FY20 operating income beat UBS's estimate led by a strong second half from Nufarm's ANZ, North America and Asia businesses.
The broker thinks agriculture conditions in these regions are favourable and will help the recent earnings momentum to continue in FY21. The company's proprietary Omega-3 canola seed business, which recorded its first-ever sale in September, is expected to be operating income positive in FY21.
Buy rating retained with the target price increasing to $5.25 from $4.87.
Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $0.91
If NUF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.52
Morgans rates NVX as Hold (3) -
The FY20 result for Novonix was in-line with Morgans expectations.
The company also announced that managing director Phil StBaker is stepping aside and Dr Chris Burns has been appointed as group CEO.
The company has stated it has enough funding to expand its anode material production to 2,000tpa (the Phase 1 target) by the end of 2021. The analyst calculates additional funding will be required to pursue Phase 2 and 3 production plans.
Some were disappointed by the lack of a collaboration announcement between Tesla and the company on battery day, but technologies highlighted on the day could play to the company’s strengths, reassures the broker.
Morgans notes the recent strong share price, but sees potential for volatility until earnings grow and a baseline is established for margins.
The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $1.33 from $1.09.
Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If NVX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.78
Credit Suisse rates NWS as Outperform (1) -
The Dow Jones investor briefing highlighted areas where earnings growth is expected, including digital subscriptions and amid decreasing subscriber acquisition costs.
Credit Suisse is also impressed with the growth trajectory of the risk & compliance business where revenues are largely recurring.
The broker increases estimates to factor in longer term upside beyond FY22. Outperform retained. Target rises to $25.00 from $23.25.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.78 Difference: $4.22
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.72, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.48 cents and EPS of 47.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.38 cents and EPS of 81.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.8, implying annual growth of 61.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.10
Morgans rates PAN as Add (1) -
Morgans reports Panoramic Resources is meeting or exceeding underground development targets in FY21 to date. An updated life of mine plan and reserves are considered conservative with room for management to deliver significant upside.
The plan shows a 16-year mine life producing an average 8kt of nickel in concentrate per year.
The broker explains the company, and the nickel sulphide market generally, is a battery metals story. Effectively the market is considered to have fragmented into either stainless steel or battery demand.
Recent corporate activity in Western Australia suggests to the analyst a growing interest in takeovers of nickel sulphide assets.
The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.
The target price is decreased to $0.142 from $0.508. The broker values the company using a discounted cash flow methodology and a -10% discount rate, while the company is not in production.
Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.042
If PAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $2.87
Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse suspects the NBN investment to upgrade 6.0m premises to speeds close to 1.0GB per second at a cost of $3.5bn while significant should have a limited impact on service providers and higher access costs are likely to be passed through to end-users.
The broker also notes NBN has not increased revenue projections despite the higher investment and has, in fact, lowered short-term forecasts.
Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and reduces Telstra's target to $3.85 from $3.90. A potential return to growth in mobile is considered the key driver of the stock.
Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.98
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 21.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 14.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of -11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 14.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $8.90
Credit Suisse rates TWE as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral given the recent weakness in the share price amid observations that signal the Penfolds brand equity among consumers is unaffected by the anti-dumping investigation in China.
The broker expects further improvement in shipments into the mid autumn festival/Golden Week as well as some pent-up demand from weddings as celebrations were likely moved to the upcoming holiday season from Chinese New Year. Target is $12.30.
Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $3.4
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 29.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 45.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 29.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 57.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.3, implying annual growth of 24.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
BHP | BHP | $36.94 | Morgan Stanley | 40.70 | 39.45 | 3.17% |
EVN | Evolution Mining | $5.53 | Morgan Stanley | 5.00 | 4.60 | 8.70% |
FMG | Fortescue | $15.96 | Morgan Stanley | 14.10 | 14.50 | -2.76% |
GXY | Galaxy Resources | $1.19 | Morgan Stanley | 1.25 | 0.75 | 66.67% |
IGO | IGO Co | $4.25 | Morgan Stanley | 4.90 | 4.80 | 2.08% |
ILU | Iluka Resources | $9.46 | Morgan Stanley | 10.35 | 10.10 | 2.48% |
KMD | Kathmandu | $1.12 | Macquarie | 1.15 | 1.09 | 5.50% |
LVT | Livetiles | $0.20 | Citi | 0.25 | 0.30 | -16.67% |
MIN | Mineral Resources | $25.14 | Morgan Stanley | 23.40 | 23.50 | -0.43% |
NCM | Newcrest Mining | $30.69 | Morgan Stanley | 37.40 | 35.70 | 4.76% |
NST | Northern Star | $13.28 | Morgan Stanley | 12.65 | 12.45 | 1.61% |
NUF | Nufarm | $4.08 | Citi | 5.30 | 5.60 | -5.36% |
Credit Suisse | 5.07 | 5.04 | 0.60% | |||
Macquarie | 4.50 | 4.26 | 5.63% | |||
Morgans | 5.10 | 4.85 | 5.15% | |||
Ord Minnett | 4.70 | 4.00 | 17.50% | |||
UBS | 5.25 | 4.87 | 7.80% | |||
NVX | Novonix | $1.21 | Morgans | 1.33 | 1.09 | 22.02% |
NWS | News Corp | $20.11 | Credit Suisse | 25.00 | 23.25 | 7.53% |
ORE | Orocobre | $2.55 | Morgan Stanley | 2.60 | 2.40 | 8.33% |
OZL | Oz Minerals | $13.81 | Morgan Stanley | 15.80 | 14.40 | 9.72% |
PAN | Panoramic Resources | $0.10 | Morgans | 0.14 | 0.51 | -72.16% |
RIO | Rio Tinto | $97.19 | Morgan Stanley | 100.50 | 99.50 | 1.01% |
RRL | Regis Resources | $5.00 | Morgan Stanley | 6.30 | 6.00 | 5.00% |
S32 | South32 | $2.17 | Morgan Stanley | 2.65 | 2.40 | 10.42% |
SAR | Saracen Mineral | $4.97 | Morgan Stanley | 5.65 | 5.50 | 2.73% |
SBM | St Barbara | $2.94 | Morgan Stanley | 3.95 | 3.85 | 2.60% |
SFR | Sandfire | $4.17 | Morgan Stanley | 6.25 | 5.70 | 9.65% |
SYR | Syrah Resources | $0.42 | Morgan Stanley | 0.45 | 0.35 | 28.57% |
TLS | Telstra Corp | $2.84 | Credit Suisse | 3.85 | 3.90 | -1.28% |
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | $0.93 | Morgan Stanley | 1.30 | 1.90 | -31.58% |
Summaries
AGL | AGL Energy | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $14.13 |
BKW | Brickworks | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $18.86 |
DXS | Dexus Property | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.80 |
FMG | Fortescue | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $15.98 |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.19 |
KMD | Kathmandu | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.08 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.08 | ||
LVT | Livetiles | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.21 |
NUF | Nufarm | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.34 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.34 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.34 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.34 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.34 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.34 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.34 | ||
NVX | Novonix | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.52 |
NWS | News Corp | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $20.78 |
PAN | Panoramic Resources | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.10 |
TLS | Telstra Corp | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.87 |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.90 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 13 |
3. Hold | 6 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Thursday 24 September 2020
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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