Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Atlantic Lithium, the Outperform rating and target price of 56 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.15
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGY as Neutral (3) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Argosy Minerals, the Neutral rating and target price of 14 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.01
If AGY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's commodities team updates its alumina and aluminium outlook, lifting its first quarter aluminium price assumption to US$2,215 a tonne, from US$2,150, while increasing its 2024 average alumina price expectation to US$363 a tonne, from US$345.

The broker remains Neutral on stocks with relevant exposure, expecting the market to stay in a sustained surplus through 2024. For Alumina Ltd, delays to permitting at Huntly and Willowdale could prove the greatest downside risk to the broker's forecast.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.10 from 85 cents.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

Cooper Energy is benefiting from a production improvement from its Orbost Improvement Project, allowing the company to increase sales in the current spot market which is around 20% higher than its contract pricing. 

As of late December, polishing unit updates have supported production of 59 terrajoules per day and a record daily rate of 67.3 terrajoules per day. Macquarie expects a 5% December quarter production increase to be followed by a further 5% increase over the March quarter.

Decomissioning of the Basker Manta Gummy (BMG) subsea oil facilities is underway, and could prove a catalyst according to the broker. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to 18 cents from 12 cents.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.01
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.20, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Neutral (3) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Core Lithium, the Neutral rating and target price of 20 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Evolution Mining's exposure to copper rises by around 32% from FY25-30 (revenue basis), notes Ord Minnett, following the recent acquisition of an 80% interest in the Northparkes copper-gold mine.

The broker is broadly neutral on the price paid: $608m upfront cash and up to $114m of contingent payments funded via $200m of debt and $585m in equity.

Ord Minnett's Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.70 from $3.60 due to both the acquistion and upgraded commodity price forecasts.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Global Lithium Resources, the rating is upgraded to Outperform and the target price of $1.30 is retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.58
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Galan Lithium, the Outperform rating and target price of $1.20 are retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.6
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Neutral (3) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Hastings Technology Metals, the Neutral rating and target price of 93 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.19
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For IGO, Macquarie is anticipating a -12% spodumene production decline from Greenbushes but assumes ongoing base metal production increases at Nova.

The Outperform rating and target price of $10.00 are retained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.06 Difference: $1.94
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Iluka Resources, Macquarie assumes higher mineral sands sales. The broker has modeled 142% and 34% increases in synthetic rutile and rutile sales respectively, offset by a -14% decline in zircon in the December quarter.

The Outperform rating and target price of $8.90 are retained.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $6.77 Difference: $2.13
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLL as Neutral (3) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Leo Lithium, the Neutral rating and target price of 50 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If LLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Liontown Resources, the Neutral rating and target price of $1.60 are retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.11
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Lynas Rare Earths, Macquarie is predicting a -40% quarter-on-quarter rare earth oxides production decline, given the shut down of the company's Malaysian processing plant. The broker expects rare earth oxide sales of 2,700 tonnes for the December quarter.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.40 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $1.01
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.08, suggesting upside of 28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Mineral Resources, the broker expects shipments from the Mt Marion site will likely decline amid slowing demand for lower grade spodumene concentrate, but expects Wodgina to benefit from newly opened mining fronts.

Outperform and target price of $75.00.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $62.74 Difference: $12.26
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $72.64, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Neutral (3) -

Processing at Newmont's Telfer tailings storage facility (TSF) is suspended, amid detection on cracking and seepage. Though the asset is not material to Newmont's portfolio, notes UBS, the news is the latest in a series of donwgrades and disappointments from the company.

Newmont plans to ready TSF 7 for use, while options are considered for remediation of TSF 8. Coupled with a production suspension at Brucejack, the company enters the new year with around 9% of its portfolio offline.

The Neutral rating and target price of $60.00 are retained.

This report was published on January 12, 2024.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $55.50 Difference: $4.5
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $70.33, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NXL as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Nuix's 1H trading update showed key financial metrics were either in line with or comfortably ahead of forecasts by Shaw and Partners.

Management reiterated key FY24 strategic targets of around 10% annual contract value (ACV) and statutory revenue growth in constant currency. The broker suggests the ACV target looks de-risked given a 1H run-rate in the mid-teens.

Revenue growth is also on track to exceed operating cost growth in FY24, highlight the analysts.

The Buy, High risk rating and $2.20 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $0.37
If NXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Buy (1) -

Citi resumes coverage of Orora after a period of rating suspension with a Buy rating and a target price of $3.28. A soft 1H result is expected though it should also represent a trough for earnings.

The broker now forecasts rising EPS due to normalising demand patterns, new can lines and easing China wine tariffs. Despite near-term noise, a higher stock price is expected in 12 months time.

Citi also highlights packaging stocks typically outperform in periods of falling inflation and slowing growth, as investors are attracted to defensive earnings growth and attractive yields.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.66
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Piedmont Lithium, the Outperform rating and target price of 60 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.26
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

The broker expects Pilbara Minerals to deliver lower mining rates, but offset by higher grades, and expects the company to deliver shipments exceeding production over the first half.

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.40 are retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.66
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Patriot Battery Metals, the Outperform rating and target price of $2.10 are retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $1.2
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RGN as Equal-weight (3) -

Given Morgan Stanley forecasts no interest rate cuts until early 2025, it's thought households will have to divert more money towards housing costs, resulting in less money to spend at malls.

Region Group does have exposure to stressed households, but more than 50% of income is driven by non-discretionary tenants (supermarkets etc), explains the broker. As a result, a resilient income stream is anticipated despite an expected retail slowdown.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained and the target rises to $2.30 from $2.25. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.08
If RGN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's commodities team updates its alumina and aluminium outlook, lifting its first quarter aluminium price assumption to US$2,215 a tonne, from US$2,150, while increasing its 2024 average alumina price expectation to US$363 a tonne, from US$345.

The broker remains Neutral on stocks with relevant exposure, expecting the market to stay in a sustained surplus through 2024. For Rio Tinto, the broker notes risk from accelerating ESG momentum and a potential higher carbon tax. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $120.00 are retained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $129.15 Difference: minus $9.15 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $125.67, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's commodities team updates its alumina and aluminium outlook, lifting its first quarter aluminium price assumption to US$2,215 a tonne, from US$2,150, while increasing its 2024 average alumina price expectation to US$363 a tonne, from US$345.

The broker remains Neutral on stocks with relevant exposure, expecting the market to stay in a sustained surplus through 2024. For South32, the broker notes risk from accelerating ESG momentum and a potential higher carbon tax. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.40 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.98, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Given Morgan Stanley forecasts no interest rate cuts until early 2025, it's thought households will have to divert more money towards housing costs, resulting in less money to spend at malls.

Positively for Scentre Group, its malls are in areas with the least housing stress, highest wealth, and lowest share of residents with a mortgage, explains the broker.

Overweight. The target rises to $3.30 from $3.10. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.34
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's new commodity price forecasts and a lower capital spend for Stanmore Resources combine to more than offset rising costs due to general cost inflation, higher strip ratios and costs incurred for the SWC Expansion Project.

As a result, the company should become a regular dividend payer in 2024 due to increasing net cash and an imminent debt refinancing, explains the broker.

The analysts forecast 27cps in dividends over the next 12 months including 21cps to be declared in February 2024 with the release of FY23 financials.

The $4.30 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.37
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Outperform (1) -

Lithium pricing has faced a material drop over the last year, with spodumene declining to US$1,000 per tonne from US$6,000 per tonne over the past twelve months as the market moved from a deficit in 2022 to a now clear surplus.

With this in mind, Macquarie expects the market to be keeping a close eye on potential production cuts, capital delays and impairments in the near term.

For Sayona Mining, the Outperform rating and target price of 9 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.03
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

UBS sees a more positive environment for a general re-rating of the Australian Telecom sector in 2024 due to falling 10-year bond yields and underperformance of the sector versus the ASX200 in 2023.

The broker suggests mobile pricing, more efficient deployment of capital, and cost-outs will be the key drivers for a return on invested capital (ROIC) recovery across the industry.

The mobile market should remain rational, according to the analysts, and Telstra and TPG Group will keep raising  prices. The preferred pick from stocks under coverage by UBS in the sector is Telstra.

On February 15, the broker forecasts Telstra will report 1H total income of $11.6bn, EBITDA $4bn, NPAT $963m, EPS 8.3cps and an interim dividend of 9cps.

The Buy rating and $4.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.59
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.37, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

UBS sees a more positive environment for a general re-rating of the Australian Telecom sector in 2024 due to falling 10-year bond yields and underperformance of the sector versus the ASX200 in 2023.

The broker suggests mobile pricing, more efficient deployment of capital, and cost-outs will be the key drivers for a return on invested capital (ROIC) recovery across the industry.

The mobile market should remain rational, according to the analysts, and Telstra and TPG Telecom will keep raising  prices. The preferred pick from stocks under coverage by UBS in the sector is Telstra.

The target for TPG Telecom rises to $5.45 from $5.14 on higher longer-term postpaid ARPU growth assumptions and after UBS assumes a broader postpaid back book reprice around March/April of around $4/month. Neutral.

For 26th February, the broker forecasts 2H revenues of $2.9bn, EBITDA (incl. restructuring) of $961m and a 2H FY23 dividend of 18cps.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: $0.33
If TPG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

With the acquisition of brand DAOU, Treasury Wine Estates becomes the largest luxury wine producer in the US. Macquarie considers the acquisition a key asset to the company's portfolio, opening access to the $20-40 bottle market.

While valuation, per the $1,472m purchase price, of DAOU was described as "full" by the broker, Macquarie  acknowledges the brand's growth potential. 

The broker also anticipates resolution of Australian wine tariffs in the March quarter, allowing Treasury Wine Estates to resume trade to China, the company's fastest growing and most profitable market.

Following a period of research restriction, the broker lifts its rating to Outperform with a target price of $14.00.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.18 Difference: $3.82
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.26, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Given Morgan Stanley forecasts no interest rate cuts until early 2025, it's thought households will have to divert more money towards housing costs, resulting in less money to spend at malls.

As Vicinity Centres' malls are in areas with high stress and less wealth, the broker downgrades its rating to Underweight from Equal-weight.

The analysts forecast a negative earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY23-26 following the dilutive Chatswood acquisition. Balance sheet pressure is also anticipated from developments/devaluations.

The $1.95 target price is retained. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.90, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources