Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ALD as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

Lockdowns are impacting Ampol, given its NSW skew and in-housing of shop operations in recent years though, as a result, the company should also have more leverage to recovery in the fourth quarter.

The broker is on rating restrictions due to the Ampol bid for Z Energy ((ZEL)).

Current Price is $28.04. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $31.12, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALU as Underperform (5) -

In a further reaction to FY21 results, which were below both Macquarie and consensus forecasts as well as company guidance, the broker lowers its target to $27.10 from $27.60. Yesterday, the broker decreased its rating to Underperform and its target to $27.60 from $30. 

The analyst forecasts Altium’s revenues will reach the lower end of the company’s previously provided aspiration range in FY26. Also, it's estimated the US$500m revenue aspirational target will be reached by FY27, instead of guidance for FY26.

As a result of the discounts for term based licences, the broker estimates the breakeven point where they start generating more cumulative income versus perpetual has increased from on average four years up to 8-11 years.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $29.95 Difference: minus $2.85 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.10, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AND as Add (1) -

FY21 revenue, adjusted earnings (EBITDA) and cash at bank were all in-line with Morgans latest forecasts. While no guidance was proffered, all the lead indicators are considered positive and the broker expects healthy revenue and earnings growth in FY22.

Net subscriber adds steadily tracked higher over FY21. The target price rises to $1.84 from $1.68 and the Add rating is unchanged. The analyst sees the company as a beneficiary of a surge in M&A, tenders and governance.

Target price is $1.84 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.19
If AND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AUA as Add (1) -

While Audeara's FY21 report was in-line with Morgans expectations, upbeat commentary from management suggests significant development and sales momentum continues. It's thought the weak share price since IPO is unjustified.

The analyst feels further upside may come from a higher sell-through across the existing installed base, progression of further supply agreements and expectations of maiden international sales. The Add rating and $0.33 target price are maintained.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.23
If AUA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 230% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVG as Add (1) -

Australian Vintage delivered FY21 profit (NPATS) 7.5% ahead of Morgans forecast, reflecting the benefit of an improving sales mix, successful new product development (McGuigan Zero) and distribution gains.

The analyst highlights the performance of the UK/Europe business, which was again the standout. It's thought the company has made strong progress on executing its growth strategy throughout FY21 and this momentum is expected to continue in FY22.

Despite a strong share price performance, after earnings upgrades the analyst feels the stock’s valuation remains undemanding and maintains an Add rating. The target rise to $1.06 from $0.83 after material EPS upgrades.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.22
If AVG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBT as Buy (1) -

BlueBet Holdings' recent FY21 result was broadly in-line with Ord Minnett's expectations, and around 2% ahead of prospectus forecasts for earnings (EBITDA). The broker increases its target price to $2.70 from $2.30 on the strong underlying performance.

The analyst believes the company is well positioned to capitalise in FY22 on its growing footprint domestically, before the launch in the US in 2022. While unsuccessful with its application in Arizona, management has vowed an “agile” approach to new opportunities in the US.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.03
If BBT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

Beach Energy's production continues to disappoint with FY22 guidance cut -10-18% versus FY21 and Western Flank's decline in guidance was higher than expected, explains the analyst. The price target of $1.20 and Neutral rating are unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.12
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 32.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

While issues with Orbost have been well known, second half third-party purchase values required to make up the Orbost gas processing plant shortfalls came in around 30% above forecast. Neutral rating and the target falls to $0.21 from $0.22.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CVN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

A model roll-forward and revisions to future employee expenses and new venture advisory costs drove reductions to EPS forecasts for Carnarvon Petroleum, explains the broker. The price target falls to $0.27 from $0.30 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.02
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Add (1) -

The FY21 result was better than Morgans expected as tight cost control kept losses and cash burn to a minimum. Upon attaining 80% vaccination rates, management feels international travel will return during 2H22. The broker expects earnings will fully recover in FY24.

The analyst maintains the Add rating given upside to the target price, which is now set at $3.03, up from $2.95. Management was unable to offer FY22 earnings guidance. First quarter total transaction value (TTV) has fallen again due to A&NZ border restrictions, notes Morgans.

The broker points out there's sufficient liquidity to maintain operations well into 2023 based on a low cash burn of around -$2-3m per month.

Target price is $3.03 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $1.19
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie can see potential upside should Inghams Group bid for Hazeldenes Chickens (as per recent speculation) though a deal would likely cause ACCC competition concerns.

The broker had previously estimated Hazeldenes could be worth around $279m though recent press reports suggest it could sell for as much as $450m. The Neutral rating and $4.10 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.03
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

One of the brokers preferences among small to mid caps is Karoon Energy. The Outperform rating is maintained and the target price falls to $1.45 from $1.60. It's thought the company's free cashflow generation is underappreciated.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.22
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 43.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KMD as Reinstate coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS observes, following the Rip Curl acquisition in 2019, the well-diversified portfolio of Kathmandu Holdings provides room for global growth, also noting a continued consumer preference for athletic clothing.

Trend data from Google points to strong technical surfing sales growth. Some pressure is expected in the short term on Australasian sales because of continued disruptions from the pandemic yet the broker believes operating earnings should double over the next three years.

UBS reinstates coverage of Kathmandu Holdings with a Buy rating and NZ$1.70 target.

Current Price is $1.33. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Citi finds the trading update difficult to read because half of the transactions occurred during lockdowns in greater Sydney. Still, outperformance is implied in liquor with potential underperformance by supermarkets.

Supermarket sales declined by -1.8% in the first 16 weeks of FY22 and the broker interprets the available information to imply both Coles ((COL)) and Woolworths ((WOW)) outperformed. Citi retains a Buy rating and $4.10 target.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.12
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MTS as Outperform (1) -

Sales have accelerated through the first 16 weeks of the first half, Credit Suisse observes. Post the lockdowns, the broker acknowledges conditions may be less favourable for the Metcash-backed supermarkets but prefers to "follow the money" at this point.

It appears the supermarket wholesale business has retained most of the market share gained in FY20. Hardware has also been very strong and shown little negative impact from the disruptions to the construction sector.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $4.35 from $4.16.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.37
If MTS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes some moderation in supermarket sales, offset by strength in liquor and hardware, after Metcash issued a trading update. Management has increased the off-market share buyback to $200m from $175m.

The broker raises EPS forecasts and lifts its target price to $4.10 from $3.80. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.12
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash has signalled an improvement in trading the first 16 weeks of the first half on top of market share gains. UBS notes this has been driven by a shift to shopping in the neighbourhood, consuming food and liquor at home, and less overseas travel.

Going forward, therefore, some of the industry support looks set to ease yet the broker is confident some consumers would have changed habits permanently.

In hardware, Metcash is also growing faster than Bunnings ((WES)), the broker adds. Buy rating and $4.60 target unchanged.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.62
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

Monthly Medicare data indicates to Morgans strong fresh cycle growth continues in FY22, which suggests stronger growth than just pent-up demand alone. It's thought these levels are sustainable and normalised growth will continue from FY23.

The broker makes minor forecast changes and lifts its target price to $1.09 from $1.06. The Add rating is unchanged and the analyst highlights an attractive dividend yield.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.09
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OGC as Neutral (3) -

OceanaGold Corp has announced that the Macraes and Waihi operations in New Zealand have restarted following a lift in the covid-19-related lockdown. Despite the production impact being slightly higher than Macquarie anticipated, the news is considered positive.

The broker leaves its Neutral rating and $2.50 target price unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

Due to research restrictions Macquarie cannot advise on either a target price or rating for Oil Search at present.

Current Price is $3.76. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

A new approach by Ord Minnett to valuing Pacific Current Group's 5% equity stake in asset manager GQG Partners lifts the broker's target price to $8.30 from $7.50. This comes after a press report of the asset manager's potential IPO.

The broker leaves forecast earnings unchanged and retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $1.05
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Buy (1) -

For Ord Minnett’s initial response to FY21 results, see Tuesday's Report.

The FY21 earnings loss of -$156.1m was 5% better than the analyst expected. The broker lowers its FY22-24 revenue forecasts after reducing the rate of customer acquisition and increasing cost assumptions, which also decreased earnings (EBITDA) estimates.

Ord Minnett decreases its target price to $13.10 from $13.60 and maintains its Buy rating.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $10.62 Difference: $2.48
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RCW as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Given a recent quarterly update, Morgans didn't find much new in the FY21 results. The highlight was considered the doubling of annualised recurring revenue to $8.1m. No specific FY22 guidance was given.

The broker upgrades its rating to Speculative Buy from Hold on recent share price weakness. The target price falls to $0.37 from $0.39. 

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.09
If RCW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REG as Outperform (1) -

Following FY21 results, Macquarie highlights occupancy improved in the second half, driven by a recovery in Victoria. However, the analyst tempers near-term forecasts to capture more recent covid-19-related cost increases.

The underlying earnings (EBITDA) pre-AASB16 and underlying profit were both in-line with the broker's estimates, and the Outperform rating and $2.50 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.33
If REG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

FY21 operating earnings were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. The outlook for FY22 production is unchanged but mostly weighted to the second half because of mill maintenance in the September quarter and revised scheduling.

The stock remains the broker's top pick amongst intermediate gold stocks and an Outperform rating is maintained. Credit Suisse reduces the target to $3.60 from $4.00 after running new gold price forecasts and revising financing costs.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $1.12
If RRL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 41.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

Due to research restrictions Macquarie cannot advise on either a target price or rating for Santos at present.

Current Price is $6.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.01, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

One of the brokers preferences among small to mid caps is Strike Energy and the Outperform rating and $0.60 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.33
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXY as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

The broker retains its Neutral rating and $3.35 target price for Senex Energy. Management has signaled it will be holding a sustainability day in the coming weeks/months, where decarbonisation targets and a net zero declaration are expected to be set.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.16
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie increases the length of its lockdown assumptions and, despite assuming a relatively rapid bounce back, cautions the scope for dividend recovery is limited. The broker now forecasts a dividend of $0.423 (consensus $0.469) with risk to the downside.

The analyst also points out potential for a capital raise of $2.9-4.4bn to cover the WestConnex acquisition, which would dilute the yield in FY22 and FY23. However, the broker suggests the acquisition extends a strong growth outlook to the end of the decade.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating and lowers its target price to $14.66 from $14.91.

Target price is $14.66 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: $0.39
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates UMG as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse suggests the most important part of the trading update was the news the company will finish the year within covenants and there is no change to the underlying dividend policy.

Updated earnings guidance is below expectations, largely because of the inclusion of SaaS implementation costs.

Malt volumes at 95% of the pre-pandemic levels are slightly ahead of the brokers previous estimates, while the impact of drought in North America has been an emerging issue for some time. Neutral rating and $4.58 target maintained.

Target price is $4.58 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.18
If UMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reduces its FY21 EPS forecast by -22% reflecting reduced company guidance for underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $123-
128m and underlying profit of $36-41m.

The FY22 EPS estimate falls -8% due to a slower forecast covid recovery in FY22 (mainly Asia and Australia), and -$10m in SaaS expenses that were previously expected to be capitalised, explains the analyst.

The target price falls to $4.51 from $4.90 and the Outperform rating is unchanged. Macquarie notes the transformation program will likely support an earnings recovery with targeted $30m annualised net benefits by FY24.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.11
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Buy (1) -

United Malt has guided to FY21 underlying EBITDA in a range of $129-134m. Yet UBS notes guidance includes -$7.4 in one-off costs disclosed at the first half results.

On balance, while the significant items point to lower quality, the broker considers the underlying performance of the business is broadly in line with expectations.

The key will be understanding the implications for FY22 from covid-driven challenges in Asia and Australia. Buy rating and $5.10 target maintained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.7
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

One of the brokers preferences among small to mid caps is Viva Energy Group. The Outperform rating is unchanged and the target price rises to $2.50 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.36
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Despite second half results worse than Ord Minnett's pessimistic expectations and a weak guidance outlook, the acceleration in coal prices is considered the main focus.

A -$650m write down at Narrabri and a flat outlook for costs and coal output contributed to the weak result, explains the analyst. Buybacks are thought most logical versus dividends, with no franking credits and -$600m in tax losses.

Ord Minnettt feels the share price remains a laggard due to an ESG overhang and ongoing operational issues at Narrabri/NCIG. The broker retains its Buy rating and lifts its target price to $4 from $3.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $1.37
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie marks-to-market Energy sector earnings for the latest commodity prices estimates and Australian dollar forecast, and also incorporates company specific adjustments following the reporting season. 

The sector is in a consolidation phase, ultimately led by global decarbonisation trends pressuring the global oil demand peak to now be within a visible time horizon, explains the broker.

Woodside Petroleum is the preferred exposure among large caps and the analyst believes the BHP Group's ((BHP)) Petroleum transaction will be transformational. The Outperform rating and $27.60 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $27.60 Current Price is $19.74 Difference: $7.86
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.18, suggesting upside of 32.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates Z1P as Sell (5) -

Further to the initial response to the FY21 results, UBS expects the US will take over as the largest contributor to transaction value in FY22. The broker assumes US active customer growth of 3.3m and transaction value growth of 140%.

The rapid top-line growth will be supported by higher operating costs, the broker warns, particularly around sales and marketing which drives a downgrade to FY22 cash earnings forecasts. Sell maintained. Target is reduced to $5.40 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $6.90 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.76, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources