Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ADA as Buy (1) -

Adacel Technologies's cloudy trading update advises its FAA contract, awarded in the June half, has been protested by another tenderer and FAA is re-evaluating that tenderer's revised proposal. A decision is due in early September but the company retains its FY24 earnings (EBITDA) and profit-before tax guidance range.

That's after including one-time restructuring, severances and legal and professional charges totalling -US$0.7m in FY24.

Bell Potter expects Adacel Technologies will retain the contract given it designed the systems and owns the IP, but downgrades its FY24 EBITDA and pre-tax profit forecasts to reflect the charges.

Price target falls -6% to 75c. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.23
If ADA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

The distribution outlook for Atlas Arteria has improved post the refinancing agreement for Eiffarie, which is expected to occur in 4Q2024 or 1Q2025, Macquarie highlights.

The refinancing includes a one-off EUR200m release which will be used to manage debt and, contribute positively to FY25-FY28 cash flow by an estimated 2.7c per share annually, the broker expects.

Macquarie observes Atlas Arteria will issue an additional 1% of stock to Eiffage, valued at EUR55.5m, which is anticipated to be returned to shareholders in 2025.

The target price is adjusted to $5.20 from $5.39, reflecting a higher discount rate offset by dividend retiming. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.07
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Atlas Arteria has announced a series of capital-management initiatives and Morgan Stanley expects a reasonably positive reaction from markets.

The broker observes shareholders of APRR have agreed on targets and transactions which should yield roughly 5c a share in free cash-flow flexibility across 2025 to 2027.

While noting the French Presidential election and budget are wildcards for the broker's thesis, for now an Equal Weight rating and $5.66 target price are applied. This compares with a $6.06 target price in February. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $5.66 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.53
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ANG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating and a 60c target price for Austin Engineering post the retirement announcement of the CEO and Managing Director at the end of FY25.

The board believes there is sufficient time to find a suitable replacement for David Singleton, whose remumeration package has been revised to a $800k base salary with bonus starting July 1, 2024.

There are no changes to the broker's earnings forecasts and the stock is considered as attractive despite the share price appreciation.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.02
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CBO as Hold (3) -

Cobram Estate Olives's trading update disappointed Bell Potter, the company's harvest and third-party sourcing of oil both missing forecasts, generating a miss on earnings (EBITDA).

On the upside, Cobram's FY25 US crop forecast outpaced the broker.

Elsewhere, the broker observes domestic competitors are finally catching up with price increases, EU extra virgin olive oil pricing indicators appear to have peaked and EU crop volumes have improved.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $1.95 from $2.10.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.18
If CBO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CBO as Buy (1) -

Cobram Estate Olives reported the 2024 trading and harvest update with Shaw and Partners highlighting the harvest was in line with management's expectations but below the analyst's forecasts.

The broker has upgraded FY24 and FY25 EBITDA forecasts due to higher-than-expected output pricing amid a global shortage of olive oil.

EPS estimates are lifted 12% and 10.8% for FY24/ FY25, respectively. The target price of $2.05 and Buy rating are retained with the company benefiting from a global olive oil shortage.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.28
If CBO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts to account for mark-to-market on changes in the forward interest rate curves for Computershare and concludes the company is showing increased sensitivity to interest rate changes.

Accounting for the changes in the forward rates, the analyst highlights each 25bps movement in bond yields equals around a 0.6% change in the Computershare EPS forecasts.

Macquarie tweaks earnings estimates by 1.2% for FY24 and -0.4% for FY25.

Outperform rating unchanged and the target raised to $30 from $29 on valuation grounds.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.47 Difference: $3.53
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.31, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DGL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Recycler DGL Group has its work cut out for, says Bell Potter, the broker observing at least one of the company's lead battery suppliers has announced a 20% increase; and AdBlue prices fell -17% in FY24 and appear set to weaken further.

The ag-chem market is looking good, observes Bell Potter, with winter cropping acreage and wheat yields on the rise. Weather forecasts are for seasonal averages.

EPS forecasts fall -3% in FY25 and -7% in FY26. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price falls to 65c from 75c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.08
If DGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DLI as Buy (1) -

Delta Lithium has announced a strong upgrade to its Mt Ida Gold Resource to 6.6Mt at 3.5g/t containing 752koz, up from 412koz in October.

Bell Potter observes the deposit has more upside potential, and spies light at the end of the tunnel for lithium prices.

Speculative Buy rating and 75c target price retained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.485
If DLI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 183% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes Domino's Pizza Enterprises is facing three major earnings challenges: a weaking Japanese Yen; a jump in cheese prices; and a slower than forecast store rollout.

The broker downgrades its EPS forecasts accordingly, down -4% to -12% over FY24 to FY27.

While observing the company's execution has been a tad disappointing, Ord Minnett retains the faith, believing the tide is about to turn and that patient shareholders should be rewarded.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $43 from $51.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $35.79 Difference: $7.21
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.08, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HUB as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of super platform Hub24 with a Buy rating and $53.20 target price.

The broker expects the company will benefit as investment professionals exit institutionally owned platforms in search of alternative comprehensive technology solutions; and increases to the super guarantee contribution and rollovers into self-managed super funds.

The broker observes the company boasts leading capital flows and its single digit market share suggests room for growth. The company is recognised as the best functional platform in adviser ratings.

The big differentiator, says Bell Potter, is that its revenue margins compress slower than peers, and that makes its discount to peers unjustified.

Target price is $53.20 Current Price is $46.07 Difference: $7.13
If HUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.38, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

IGO has announced a dividend from Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia for the June quarter of $159.3m, taking the total FY24 dividend to $761.4m, outpacing Morgan Stanley's forecast by 6%.

As per the broker, the dividend reflects a draw down of spodumene concentrate stockpiles at Greenbushes, lower lithium price volatility, a revised pricing mechanism, and refinancing of the company's Windfield debt. 

Morgan Stanley says the announcement may reduce concern as to whether cash will need to be retained within Tianqi/Windfield to fund capital expenditure at Greenbushes.

Underweight rating and $5.05 target price retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie analyst observes IPH experienced a -2.8% year-on-year decrease in filing volumes for 2H24 in Australia, underperforming the market, which declined by -1.4%.

Market share remained stable around 32%, with significant client wins driving filing transfers to the company.

There are no changes to the broker's earnings forecasts. An Outperform rating and a target price of $7.35 are unchanged.

IPH is due to report FY24 earnings on 22 August.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.20 Difference: $1.15
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlighted how impressed it was by the two-day investor presentations held by James Hardie Industries in the US, including the quality of people, the potential operating leverage to a market in recovery mode and the scope for a much-improved competitive moat.

Management outlined key strategic goals including tripling North American EBITDA by 2035 and achieving a 35% margin, supported by ongoing research and development, talent acquisition, and ESG initiatives.

The analyst adjusts EPS estimates by 0.5% for both FY24 and FY25.

The target price is lifted to $66.60 from $55, post an uplift in the valuation to account for the company's longer term growth potential.

Target price is $66.60 Current Price is $47.92 Difference: $18.68
If JHX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.60, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KSL as Add (1) -

Kina Securities has announced a customer fraud involving several accounts for a small number of customers at a cost of -PGK12m to -PGK15m.

Management advised it had isolated root causes (a funds transfer process, not a cyber attack, a positive in Morgans' view) and corrected system vulnerabilities with more improvements planned.

The company also took the opportunity to announce earnings guidance which missed Morgans' forecasts and the broker adopts more conservative assumptions.

EPS forecasts fall -13% in FY24 and -3% in 2024 and 2025 to reflect the fraud and earnings guidance.

Add rating retained. Target price eases to $1.22 from $1.24.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.305
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Lendlease Group has progressed well on its asset divestment strategy, post the sale announcement of the US Military Housing business, and at a substantial premium to book value or US$320m, Citi highlights.

The sale is expected to deliver $105-$120m in operating profit after tax in FY25.

Management guided FY24 earnings lower again to $260m-$275m from $305m, notes Citi, with $275m-$335m transactions contracted/announced for FY25 profit after tax, compared to consensus estimates of $418m.

Citi believe Lendlease Group shares are discounting a lot of bad news at current levels and views the asset sales to date as encouraging.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $6.30 target price.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $0.67
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Buy rating (1) -

Lendlease Group has sold its US Defence housing portfolio for roughly $480m, well above book value, observes Ord Minnett.

Elsewhere, delays in settling Asia Life Science have caused the broker to upgrade its FY24 operating profit estimate, and Ord Minnett also expects another upgrade for FY25. 

Lendlease Group also plans to sell its UK/Europe construction business over the next 18 months but the broker remains cautious given deal and pipeline execution risks.

Buy rating retained. Target price is $6.25 which compares with $6.10 on June 28.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.63 Difference: $0.62
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Lovisa Holdings could report lower-than-expected new stores in the FY24 results after the CEO posted on LinkedIn (July 1) of the 900th store opening, which compares to FY24 consensus estimates of 913 new stores.

Offsetting this was another post, highlighting the 2025 store rollout to reach around 1000 stores, which compares to the consensus forecast of 985 in the 1H2025.

The analyst does not believe these posts are guidance, however the share price is up 31% year-to-date and Citi points to the potential for disappointment at the FY24 results.

Neutral rating and $31.65 target unchanged.

Target price is $31.65 Current Price is $31.90 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.80, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett revises down estimates for Megaport modestly after reviewing the company, observing the company expects no increases in annual recurring revenue for the June quarter.

The broker forecasts a slight increase in operating expenditure in FY25 and an uptick in gross margins.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price is $12.50. 

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.95 Difference: $1.55
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.62, suggesting upside of 33.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects the market to focus on policyholder growth and claims inflation trends when the private health insurers report FY24 earnings.

The broker forecasts nib Holdings will achieve mid-range policyholder growth of 3.5%, while Medibank Private is expected to be at the lower end of its growth range at 1.2%.

Despite Medibank Private trading at a 13.3% premium to nib Holdings, its forward price-to-earnings valuation is -200bps below its five-year average, Macquarie notes.

nib Holdings' claims are forecast by the analyst to move towards pre-covid levels of 4%-6%, while Medibank Private's claims growth is anticipated to come in at the lower end of the 2.2%-2.4% range.

A Neutral rating on Medibank Private is retained with a revised target price of $3.70 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.01
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects the market to focus on policyholder growth and claims inflation trends when the private health insurers report FY24 earnings.

The broker forecasts nib Holdings will achieve mid-range policyholder growth of 3.5%, while Medibank Private is expected to be at the lower end of its growth range at 1.2%. 

Despite Medibank Private trading at a 13.3% premium to nib Holdings, its forward price-to-earnings valuation is -200bps below its five-year average, Macquarie notes.

nib Holdings' claims are forecast by the analyst to move towards pre-covid levels of 4%-6%, while Medibank Private's claims growth is anticipated to come in at the lower end of the 2.2%-2.4% range.

Neutral rating unchanged and the target price is raised to $7.50 from $7.30.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $0.25
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.04, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the Australian insurance sector experienced positive mark-to-market impacts in the June half-year, bolstering core profitability.

The gains were led by equity markets, with the ASX200 rising by around 2%, though bond markets presented a headwind rising 3-year yields in Australia and the US, the broker observes.

A relatively soft reinsurance renewal is also forecast by the analyst.

UBS maintains a positive sector view, highlighting QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Suncorp Group ((SUN)), Challenger ((CGF)), and AUB Group ((AUB)) as preferred names.

Buy rating maintained on nib Holdings. Target is reduced to $8.90 from $9.30.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $1.65
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.04, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Sell (5) -

Citi tweaks earnings forecasts for Netwealth Group, accounting for slighlty higher trading activity, offset by  the June quarter market movement.

The target price is raised slightly to $18.90 from $18.65.

Sell rating maintained with upside potential in the share price expected until August 14 when FY24 earnings results will be announced.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $21.61 Difference: minus $2.71 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy (1) -

Peninsula Energy reported an update on construction activities at the Lance Uranium Project in Wyoming which is on track for a production restart in late 2024, observes Shaw and Partners.

Management highlighted construction is expected to be on budget with first production in December 2024 and increasing to 1.8Mlb by 2029.

Capital expenditure is estimated at around US$57m to first production and a further US$17.4m for full production, the broker notes with the company well capitalised post the recent $106m equity raising.

Buy rating and 26c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.16
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PNC as Buy (1) -

Pioneer Credit has signed a $272.5m loan facility which represents a significant saving compared to the current facility, Shaw and Partners highlights.

The broker notes the size of the deal infers there are further debt purchase opportunities from major financial institutions.

Shaw and Partners calculates the new facility will save some -$8m in interest costs for FY25 with $95m in debt secured in FY24, up 60% on the previous year.

The broker forecasts growth to $105m in debt purchase for FY25 and FY26. Buy rating retained with an 80c target price.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.3
If PNC meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie is expecting gross written premium growth for QBE Insurance of  5.0%, slightly above the mid-single-digit guidance for FY24, and a combined operating ratio of 93.8% compared to guidance of 93.5%.

Despite short-term positive factors for the company, Macquarie highlights QBE Insurance is trading at an 11.8% premium to its weighted international peers, significantly above the three-year average premium of around 2.3%. 

The analyst revises EPS forecasts by 2.9% for FY24 and 5.2% for FY25, with an increase in the target price to $18.40 from $18.

Neutral rating unhanged,

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $17.06 Difference: $1.34
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the Australian insurance sector experienced positive mark-to-market impacts in the June half-year, bolstering core profitability. 

The gains were led by equity markets, with the ASX200 rising by around 2%, though bond markets presented a headwind rising 3-year yields in Australia and the US, the broker observes.

A relatively soft reinsurance renewal is also forecast by the analyst.

UBS maintains a positive sector view, highlighting QBE Insurance, Suncorp Group ((SUN)), Challenger ((CGF)), and AUB Group ((AUB)) as preferred names.

QBE Insurance is Buy rated and the target price adjusted to $20.50 from $21.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $17.06 Difference: $3.44
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STN as Buy High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes Saturn Metals has received firm commitments to raise $14m via a share placement at 1.65c per share.

The broker highlights Lion Selection Group ((LSX)) has a $5m commitment and will increase its holding to 17.6%.

The funds will be employed for pre-feasability studies, drilling, exploration and working capital requirements, the analyst cites.

Buy, High Risk rating unchanged. Target price lowered to 37c from 44c for the equity share dilution.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.2
If STN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points to preliminary shipping data for the 2Q2024 which infers relatively soft LNG shipments over the period for Woodside Energy and Santos ((STO)).

Santos’ LNG shipments declined by -10% due to seasonal lower GLNG shipments and PNG declines, with overall production remaining flat at 21.8MMboe, the broker highlights.

Macquarie slightly adjusts earnings forecasts and reconfirms Santos as the top pick in the sector due to M&A and restructuring possibilities.

Outperform rating retained with a $9 target price, up 1% from $8.90.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.63 Difference: $1.37
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the Australian insurance sector experienced positive mark-to-market impacts in the June half-year, bolstering core profitability. 

The gains were led by equity markets, with the ASX200 rising by around 2%, though bond markets presented a headwind rising 3-year yields in Australia and the US, the broker observes.

A relatively soft reinsurance renewal is also forecast by the analyst.

UBS maintains a positive sector view, highlighting QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Suncorp Group, Challenger ((CGF)), and AUB Group ((AUB)) as preferred names.

UBS retains a Buy rating on Suncorp Group with an adjusted target price to $19 from $18.20.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.13 Difference: $1.87
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.91, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points to preliminary shipping data for the 2Q2024 which infers relatively soft LNG shipments over the period for Woodside Energy and Santos ((STO)).

Woodside Energy production is forecast to trough at 44.3MMboe, with growth anticipated in 2H2024 driven by the new Sangomar oil project.

Macquarie adjusts EPS estimates for Woodside Energy by -5% and -6.1% for FY24/FY25, respectively, although capacity delays make the 2025 outlook at this stage appear tighter than the market is discounting in the share price, Macquarie highlights.

The Outperform rating and $32 target are retained for Woodside Energy. Santos remains the sector top pick on possible M&A and restructuring opportunities.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.25 Difference: $3.75
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett reviews Wesfarmers and lithium price forecasts (adjusting down), resulting in a -4% fall in EPS forecasts across FY25 and FY26.

The broker holds a below-consensus view on Bunnings.

The broker now forecasts an FY25 earnings (EBIT loss) of -$93m on the company's 50% share in Covalent, due to its lithium price adjustments.

Sell rating retained. Target price is $50. 

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $65.16 Difference: minus $15.16 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $60.18, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

News that an accident on the Blackwater rail system will disrupt coal exports out of Queensland's Gladstone port for several days (ahead of a scheduled maintenance outage over July-August) does not affect Morgan Stanley's assessment for Whitehaven Coal.

The broker says much will depend on the company's existing stockpiles and repair times. 

Morgan Stanley also expects the outage will tighten the market balance for coal in the near term.

EPS forecasts are steady for FY24 and FY25.

Overweight rating and $9.75 target price retained.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $8.13 Difference: $1.62
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.16, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources