Australian Broker Call
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September 07, 2021
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CTD - | Corporate Travel Management | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
FLT - | Flight Centre Travel | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
HSN - | Hansen Technologies | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
MIN - | Mineral Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
WEB - | Webjet | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
Overnight Price: $2.06
Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -
Alumina prices have rallied and Macquarie suspects the reported coup d'état in Guinea has increased concerns about the security of bauxite supply. Historically, alumina prices have been highly sensitive to interruptions in supply.
In a spot price scenario the broker's earnings estimates for Alumina Ltd increase by 31% and 170% for 2021 and 2022 which would lift the dividend yield to 7.5%.
Yet, while there is earnings momentum in a spot scenario the broker notes the dividend yield and free cash flow of Alumina Ltd are below peers. Underperformed retained. Target is steady at $1.30.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting downside of -9.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.05 cents and EPS of 7.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.91 cents and EPS of 5.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 37.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.94
Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -
BlueBet Holdings has withdrawn its Virginia licence application. Nevertheless, the market entry strategy in the US is unchanged and management is looking at potential market access as a B2C provider in Colorado, Tennessee and Maryland.
Yet Morgans suspects the market needs to witness greater progress on US access before re-rating the stock. Meanwhile, the core Australian business remains strong. Add rating retained. Target falls to $2.57 from $2.80.
Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.63
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.59
UBS rates COF as Sell (5) -
Centuria Office has recently completed the acquisition of a South Melbourne asset for $205m and 50% of 203 Pacific Highway St Leonards. UBS reflects the dilution from the transactions in estimates, taking FFO in FY22 down to $0.18 per security.
The broker had recently stated that guidance provided at the results was conservative and now, with the dilution, retracts this view. Sell rating and $2.25 target maintained.
Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CTD CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $23.62
Credit Suisse rates CTD as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse assesses the market is increasingly close to reflect Corporate Travel's synergy and efficiencies target. Yet, delays to office timelines limit the full sales potential for the business.
Additionally, the share price has continued to rise and while still envisaging upside, the broker suspects this is likely to take longer than previously anticipated. Hence, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $23.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.62 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $23.65, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.17 cents and EPS of 67.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.21 cents and EPS of 120.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.7, implying annual growth of 114.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FCL FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC
Cloud services
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Overnight Price: $4.50
Macquarie rates FCL as No Rating (-1) -
In reviewing the multiples of Fineos Corp and peers, Macquarie notes gross profit margins are broadly consistent. These range from 49-56%.
Macquarie is unable to provide a target or rating at present.
Current Price is $4.50. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2195.0. |
This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FLT FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $17.50
Credit Suisse rates FLT as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
The large exposure to Australasian sales, particularly the international outbound component, has made Flight Centre the least preferred in Credit Suisse's coverage.
Yet, with progress on vaccinations and a better break-even opportunity, the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the broker's new stock travel pick.
The broker assesses the corporate division has been steadily gaining market share and remains a high-quality business. Target is raised to $19 from $18.
Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.50 Difference: $1.5
If FLT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -51.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is -0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of -0.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 33.61 cents and EPS of 131.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.57
Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie was impressed by the cash returns to shareholders in FY21 which totalled $11bn. Nevertheless, declining iron ore prices are expected to fall over time.
The company is still expected to maintain 10% free cash flow yields into the medium term as declining capital expenditure will offset the lower iron ore prices. If prices are maintained at current levels, this lifts forecast free cash flow yields to 18% for FY23 and beyond.
Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $25 from $27.
Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $18.57 Difference: $6.43
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.32, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 244.71 cents and EPS of 306.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 404.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 316.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 17.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.72 cents and EPS of 203.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 229.2, implying annual growth of -43.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 196.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices
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Overnight Price: $32.51
Citi rates FPH as Sell (5) -
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare has indicated total revenue for the first four months of FY22 is NZ$583m, -2% below the prior corresponding period in constant currency terms.
Sales in North America and Europe have declined significantly although in the rest of the world sales are growing off a high base. This situation reflects high vaccination rates in North America and Europe which have resulted in lower hospitalisations.
Citi increases estimates for FY22 revenue and upgrades earnings per share by 14%. Sell rating and NZ$27 target price maintained.
Current Price is $32.51. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $32.50, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.52 cents and EPS of 61.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.39 cents and EPS of 61.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.7. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.96
Ord Minnett rates HMY as Buy (1) -
Underlying gross income of $83m showed a stable half on half revenue performance for Harmoney Corp, which Ord Minnett sees as a solid result conscious of the competitive issues flagged in NZ earlier in the year, and the rapidly growing but still smaller Australian loan book.
While lockdown restrictions provide a level of constraint to growth in the short term, the broker is hugely encouraged by the level of new customer applications, totalling 10,000 per month across Australia and NZ, as another signal that the direct customer acquisition strategy continues to work efficiently.
The company has provided guidance for FY22 NZ$90m revenues and the broker's forecasts are consistent with this.
Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.11 from $3.36.
Target price is $3.11 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $1.15
If HMY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.60
Ord Minnett rates HSN as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
While no specific reason was given, BGH Capital has withdrawn its proposed takeover of Hansen Technologies, with all formal
proceedings relating to the takeover now terminated.
The broker notes Hansen's recent cash flow track record has been excellent and estimates the company now has a debt capacity of around $350m.
Ord Minnett expects the company to focus on M&A, where it has an excellent track execution and integration record, especially once global travel opens up in 2022.
The company reiterated its FY25 targets of $500m revenue at an earnings margin of 32-35%, and the broker's earnings forecasts are unchanged.
Ord Minnett upgrades Hansen Technologies to Buy from Hold and the target of $6.50 is unchanged.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.9
If HSN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED
Consumer Electronics
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Overnight Price: $5.25
Credit Suisse rates HVN as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse makes some small adjustments to sales forecasts and assumes lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne continue into October. This drives earnings downgrades and reduction in the target to $5.65 from $5.80. Neutral retained.
Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $0.4
If HVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.17 cents and EPS of 40.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of -39.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.29 cents and EPS of 39.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of 0.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.66
Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -
Spot fertiliser prices are above Macquarie's FY22 forecasts and provide good momentum for the year ahead. The company has provided no update on Hurricane Ida and the broker notes power is gradually being restored to New Orleans.
The WALA plant is reliant on external power from the grid but the absence of any announcement would suggest there is no structural damage, the broker suggests. Outperform rating and $3.04 target maintained.
Target price is $3.04 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.38
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 124.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 24.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -
Based on reports from CRU, two fertiliser manufacturing plants in Louisiana have declared force majeure due to damage from Hurricane Ida.
Morgan Stanley believes the implications of these outages are meaningful for Incitec Pivot leading to tightening of supply and demand dynamics. Integral to this conclusion, adds the broker, is confirmation that the company's WALA facility has emerged unscathed.
There has not been an update from the company but at this stage, Morgan Stanley assumes “no news is good news”.
The broker sees upside risk in Incitec Pivot from supportive fertiliser markets and expects meaningful upgrades to consensus for this year and next based on spot prices.
Overweight maintained. Industry view: In-Line. Target is $2.90.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.24
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 124.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 24.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $45.55
Credit Suisse rates JBH as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse makes some small adjustments to sales forecasts and assumes lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne continue into October. This drives earnings downgrades and reduction in the target to $53.66 from $56.48. Neutral retained.
Target price is $53.66 Current Price is $45.55 Difference: $8.11
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.31, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 316.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 321.3, implying annual growth of -27.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 301.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.4, implying annual growth of -0.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $53.73
Citi rates MIN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi suspects decisions around the Ashburton development and re-start of Wodgina will be outlined on or before the AGM that is scheduled for November 18.
The share price is down -15% from the recent high in July as benchmark iron ore prices have dropped. The broker believes an upward trend in the lithium market will largely offset weakness in iron ore and the growth outlook is unaffected.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target is steady at $65. The company has completed the acquisition of 40% of the Red Hill joint venture which further supports Ashburton.
Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $53.73 Difference: $11.27
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.12, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 337.00 cents and EPS of 674.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 632.3, implying annual growth of -6.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 279.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 186.00 cents and EPS of 372.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 481.7, implying annual growth of -23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.18
Ord Minnett rates MME as Buy (1) -
Following a FY21 result that was largely in line with expectations, Ord Minnett expects that July and August have started strongly for
MoneyMe, supported by the ramp-up in the new AutoPay product, where real upside awaits once lockdowns are phased out.
The broker forecasts the gross loan book to expand by 59% in FY22 to $531m and for gross income to grow by 63% to $94.4m.
The broker believes MoneyMe trades on a premium to sector peers to reflect its innovative product mix, improving diversification of the loan book by product type, and efficient operating structure delivering improving returns on capital.
Ord Minnett maintains its Buy rating. Target increases to $2.37 from $2.35.
Target price is $2.37 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.19
If MME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 8.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 9.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $2.14
Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
Pilbara Minerals has upgraded its resource estimate by 25% after incorporating the Ngungaju project. This was larger than expected although Macquarie's base case already incorporates a large conversion of resources to reserves.
A reserve update is due in October. Meanwhile, Mineral Resources ((MIN)) has sold its entire 5.4% stake in Pilbara Minerals at $2.05 a share. Macquarie expects the free float market capitalisation will increase post the share sale.
The broker retains an Outperform rating and $2.70 target.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.56
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of 43.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.12
Morgans rates POS as Hold (3) -
Morgans revises its base case and assumes Poseidon Nickel refurbishes the 150,000tpa process plant to produce nickel in concentrate before moving to re-start the 1.1mtpa plant.
The company has now completed a $22m placement and an oversubscribed $6m share purchase plan to existing investors.
Final assays have now been received from Golden Swan with further high-grade intercepts noted. Morgans assesses the stock is fundamentally an exploration play and an option on the nickel price and retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $0.13 from $0.076.
Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.01
If POS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $110.69
UBS rates RIO as Sell (5) -
In a deeper-dive research exercise on the internal dynamics that dominate the global market for iron ore, UBS analysts have come to the conclusion that Rio Tinto is likely to miss its own production guidance for the running calendar year.
Based upon analysis of shipments year-to-date, UBS finds Brazil's Vale is equally poised to miss guidance by -5-10m tonnes, similar to Rio Tinto. Based on similar data, BHP Group ((BHP)) is running closer but equally below guidance thus far.
UBS suggests covid restrictions are to blame. The analysts remain cautious as global supply is still rising, albeit marginally, at a time when demand is weakening.
Sell rating is unchanged.
Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $110.69 Difference: minus $8.69 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $133.43, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1985.10 cents and EPS of 2083.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2074.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1620.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1273.28 cents and EPS of 1064.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1482.3, implying annual growth of -28.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1124.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.35
Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
Reserves have largely decreased with mine depletion while resources have increased for Gemco and Cerro Matoso.
After updating reserves and resources, Macquarie assesses there is material earnings upgrade momentum as the company's commodities are trading at levels above current forecasts.
Alumina prices have rallied while there are bauxite supply concerns following the reported coup d'etat in Guinea which could provide impetus. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $4 target.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0.65
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.91 cents and EPS of 29.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of -6.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.23
Credit Suisse rates SKC as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse lowers FY22 estimates for earnings per share by -20%, considering it increasingly likely the Auckland casino will remain shut for at least another two weeks.
The broker also assumes conditions will be still somewhat restrictive once the casino re-opens. This leads to a reduction in non-gaming revenue assumptions. Neutral rating and $3.20 target maintained.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SKC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.35 cents and EPS of 12.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.96 cents and EPS of 19.63 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.19
Morgans rates STA as Add (1) -
The company has indicated that all major construction contracts have now been awarded and over 90% of project scope by value is committed. The current focus is on civil earthworks. The accommodation village is forecast to begin operation by the end of September.
Despite the recent lift in prices across most mineral sands products, particularly zircon, Morgans notes the Strandline Resources share price has stayed relatively flat.
The broker understands the reason behind this is the company's status as a project developer, which is compounded by the pressures in Western Australia's resources sector on both labour and materials.
Morgans retains an Add rating and reduces the target to $0.50 from $0.52.
Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.31
If STA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $12.51
Credit Suisse rates SUL as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse makes some small adjustments to sales forecasts and assumes lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne continue into October.
Minor earnings changes are made while the target is raised to $14.41 from $14.40. Outperform maintained.
Target price is $14.41 Current Price is $12.51 Difference: $1.9
If SUL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.76, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.01 cents and EPS of 99.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.3, implying annual growth of -31.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 49.92 cents and EPS of 94.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $3.90
Ord Minnett rates TLS as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett believes Telstra is at an inflection point with mobile average revenue per unit now increasing, the National Broadband Network rollout nearing an end, and with management also guiding to substantially higher operating earnings in each of the next two years.
The broker believes infrastructure asset sales, including InfraCo, could generate substantial value, which could lead to higher capital returns.
Overall, the broker believes Telstra is best placed in the Australian mobile market with the company’s headstart on the rollout of 5G
infrastructure likely to see market share gains of lucrative postpaid subscribers.
The broker remains positive that a return to mid-teens fixed margins could add up to $350–500m to annual earnings
Ord Minnett maintains its Buy rating and target price of $4.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.6
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.4, implying annual growth of -14.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 22.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $3.95
Ord Minnett rates TYR as Buy (1) -
Following Tyro Payments' recent trading update, Ord Minnett notes the company reported $479m of total transaction value (TTV) over the past week, up 19% on the same period last year, while FY22 year-to-date total transaction value (TTV) of $4.6bn remains 23% higher than a year ago.
The broker's estimate of $31.7bn TTV for FY22 takes into account the current lockdown until the end of November. With strong progress in vaccinations, and increasingly positive news flow on timing for a gradual reopening, the broker sees risk as to the upside.
Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and the target of $4.20.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.25
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 447.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.00
Citi rates WEB as Neutral (3) -
Citi asserts consensus expectations for first half earnings are too high, noting the pace of the company's recovery is tracking below general aviation activity levels.
Nevertheless, the broker acknowledges the size of the opportunity and the targeted returns in the WebBeds division and accepts it is hard to be too negative.
Yet, given softer data, Citi pushes out expectations and views the opportunity and risk/reward as balanced. Hence, a Neutral/High Risk rating is maintained. Target is raised to $6.04 from $5.27.
Target price is $6.04 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: $0.04
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WEB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse envisages material upside to consensus estimates if Webjet can achieve its -20% cost reduction target. Nevertheless, the broker is cautious about fully modelling the upside.
Improvement is expected in the primarily domestic Australian B2C division into 2022. There was limited opportunity, given the resurgence in the pandemic, to fully capture the northern hemisphere summer in the bed bank division.
Credit Suisse now has a preference for Flight Centre ((FLT)), likely to be a key beneficiary for Australia's re-opening. Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform and raises the target to $5.70 from $5.20.
Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.00 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 26.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
BBT | BlueBet Holdings | $2.10 | Morgans | 2.57 | 2.80 | -8.21% |
FCL | Fineos Corp | $4.39 | Macquarie | N/A | 4.78 | -100.00% |
FLT | Flight Centre Travel | $18.52 | Credit Suisse | 19.00 | 18.00 | 5.56% |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | $18.03 | Macquarie | 25.00 | 27.00 | -7.41% |
HMY | Harmoney | $2.00 | Ord Minnett | 3.11 | 3.36 | -7.44% |
HVN | Harvey Norman | $5.20 | Credit Suisse | 5.65 | 5.80 | -2.59% |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | $2.72 | Macquarie | 3.04 | 3.05 | -0.33% |
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | $45.84 | Credit Suisse | 53.66 | 56.48 | -4.99% |
MME | MoneyMe | $2.22 | Ord Minnett | 2.37 | 2.35 | 0.85% |
POS | Poseidon Nickel | $0.12 | Morgans | 0.13 | 0.08 | 71.05% |
STA | Strandline Resources | $0.19 | Morgans | 0.50 | 0.52 | -3.85% |
SUL | Super Retail | $12.51 | Credit Suisse | 14.41 | 14.40 | 0.07% |
WEB | Webjet | $6.08 | Citi | 6.04 | 5.27 | 14.61% |
Credit Suisse | 5.70 | 5.20 | 9.62% |
Summaries
AWC | Alumina Ltd | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.06 |
BBT | BlueBet Holdings | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.94 |
COF | Centuria Office REIT | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $2.59 |
CTD | Corporate Travel Management | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $23.62 |
FCL | Fineos Corp | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.50 |
FLT | Flight Centre Travel | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $17.50 |
FMG | Fortescue Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $18.57 |
FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $32.51 |
HMY | Harmoney | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.96 |
HSN | Hansen Technologies | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.60 |
HVN | Harvey Norman | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.25 |
IPL | Incitec Pivot | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.66 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.66 | ||
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $45.55 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $53.73 |
MME | MoneyMe | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.18 |
PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.14 |
POS | Poseidon Nickel | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.12 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $110.69 |
S32 | South32 | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.35 |
SKC | SKYCITY Entertainment | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.23 |
STA | Strandline Resources | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.19 |
SUL | Super Retail | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.51 |
TLS | Telstra | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.90 |
TYR | Tyro Payments | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.95 |
WEB | Webjet | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.00 |
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.00 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 16 |
3. Hold | 6 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Tuesday 07 September 2021
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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