Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Accumulate (2) -

Ampol's Lytton refinery suffered an operating income loss of -$82m in the third quarter. This was below Ord Minnett’s forecast on account of higher costs and lower volumes.

The company has announced a review of Lytton and is considering a transition to an import model. Ord Minnett's earnings estimates have been by reduced by -12% in 2020 and -19% in 2021.

Accumulate recommendation is reaffirmed with the target price decreasing to $28 from $30.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $24.60 Difference: $3.4
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.63, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APT as Neutral (3) -

Afterpay competitor Sezzle ((SZL)) provided a third quarter trading update. Macquarie sees a positive read-through for Afterpay and suggests the company's near term prospects remain strong. 

The broker sees total value of merchandise sold (GMV) doubling to $22b in FY21. The Neutral rating and target price of $90 are unchanged.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $87.05 Difference: $2.95
If APT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.60, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

ARB Corp’s first-quarter sales growth was strong, observes Citi.

After the 2020 federal budget announcements, Citi has a more favourable view of ARB Corp's outlook following the expansion and extension of the instant asset write-offs program combined with the likelihood of international borders remaining closed till late 2021.

The broker expects ARB Corp’s second-quarter sales growth to slow to 16% as the company cycles tougher comps, super withdrawals slow and JobKeeper is scaling back.

FY21-23 earnings forecasts have been upgraded due to better than expected first-quarter sales and earnings.

Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $30.30 from $23.45.

Target price is $30.30 Current Price is $30.29 Difference: $0.01
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.51, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

First quarter sales for ARB Corp were well ahead of Macquarie's forecast.

The broker notes that trading conditions remain near record levels despite the Victorian restrictions and sales could remain elevated longer than expected.

The company is benefiting from multiple drivers including higher consumer spending and domestic tourism, explains the analyst. Additionally, it's considered current sales momentum could be underpinned by instant asset write-offs now extended to all investment and 99% of businesses.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $29.50 from $22.25.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $30.29 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.51, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold has reported new drilling results from its Bellevue project. Drilling in the northern extent of the Bellevue lode has defined a new high-grade shoot.

Additionally, drilling to the east of the Deacon lode has intersected gold mineralisation, indicating to the broker the potential for a new lode.

Macquarie maintains the Outperform rating and the target price is increased to $1.50 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.39
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

After an exceptionally strong June quarter, Ord Minnett expects Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) exports to fall -5% on a quarterly basis to 72Mt. Petroleum output is forecast to be flat with output for coal and copper expected to fall slightly.

The broker does not expect any changes to BHP Group's production guidance. Net profit forecasts remain above consensus for 2020.

The broker upgrades BHP's rating to Buy from Accumulate with the target reducing to $44 from $45.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $36.65 Difference: $7.35
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.07, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BIN as Buy (1) -

UBS considers Bingo Industries to be a clear beneficiary of multiple federal budget initiatives across both residential construction and infrastructure. Even as headwinds remain, this would help partially offset industry declines, suggests the broker.

The broker highlights Bingo's competitive advantage with vertical integration providing the ability to discount collections, while still benefiting from the flow-through earnings within the resource recovery and landfill operations. 

Buy rating maintained. Target is increased to $3 from $2.75.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.31
If BIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Bank of Queensland will be posting its FY20 results on 14 October. Ord Minnett forecasts full-year cash net profit of $208m, down -35% versus last year due to a materially weaker second-half cash net profit of $57m.

The broker expects net interest income to be slightly higher with a flat net interest margin, due to improved deposit spreads and lower wholesale funding costs offset by rate cuts and mortgage competition. Non-interest income is expected to fall due to fee waivers and a shift to low-fee products.

The bank has guided to second-half loan losses of -$147m which include a -$123m covid-19 collective provision (CP) top-up. Ord Minnett forecasts a delayed interim dividend of $0.10 per share and a $0.02 per share final dividend.

Bank of Queensland is well-capitalised but the broker struggles to see meaningful upside at current prices, given the investment needed to drive long-term revenue growth.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation with the target price rising to $6.15 from $6.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.91, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its oil price forecasts in line with the forward curve. The broker has shifted its US$60 per barrel (bbl) long-term oil price assumption from 2023 to 2024. Using the forward curve over the next 13 quarters, the broker sees a lower 2023 oil price of US$45/bbl.

Investors are recommended to seek a broad sector exposure. 

Beach Energy's rating has been upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the target price falling to $2.20 from $2.25.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.8
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Earnings forecast for Commonwealth Bank of Australia for FY21 has been reduced by -0.4%. For FY22-23, the forecasts have increased by 1.7% and 3.8%.

These changes reflect revised net interest income assumptions after the recent APRA lending and deposit data, with stronger liquids balances weighing on the net interest margin and lower non-housing lending impacting the net interest income. 

No change to Neutral rating or $71 price target.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $68.11 Difference: $2.89
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.09, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COE as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its oil price forecasts in line with the forward curve. The broker has shifted its US$60 per barrel (bbl) long-term oil price assumption from 2023 to 2024. Using the forward curve over the next 13 quarters, 2023 oil price is expected to be lower at US$45/bbl.

Investors are recommended to seek a broad sector exposure. Within its small-cap coverage, Ord Minnett prefers Cooper Energy because of the company's fixed-price contracts and strong balance sheets.

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate with the target price reducing slightly to $0.57 from $0.58.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.21
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EHL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie resumes coverage of Emeco Holdings after a capital raising and debt refinancing.

The broker states the company is now strongly placed to capitalise on growth opportunities and has flexibility to navigate the current softness in coal.

The western region has many prospects in both surface and underground, while coal projects drive the softer FY21 outlook in the eastern region, explains the analyst.

Macquarie reduces EPS estimates for FY21 and FY22 by -22% and -19%, respectively, to account for the capital raise dilution, which is partly offset by a lower interest expense.

The Outperform rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $1.15 from the target price as at 29 July, 2020 of $1.40.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.31
If EHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -

Elmo Software re-affirmed its organic FY21 annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $65-70m and upgraded its group ARR on account of the acquisition of the UK based human resources platform, Breathe.

Morgan Stanley considers the acquisition to be consistent with Elmo Software's strategy. While acknowledging the positives, the broker does have questions around distribution and unit economics as the company moves deeper into smaller businesses.

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Overweight rating with a target price of $9. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $5.90 Difference: $3.1
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects another solid operational performance from Fortescue Metals Group with 45mt shipped. The group is expected to report a record net cash position of US$1.4bn with the dividend to be paid next quarter.

Price realisation has been forecast at 13%. The upcoming catalysts include updates on Iron Bridge and Eliwana.

Buy recommendation maintained with a target price of $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.00 Difference: $3
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.30, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Buy (1) -

Citi has lowered its cash earnings forecasts for FY20-22 to reflect revised net interest income assumptions.

National Australia Bank's net interest margin forecasts are mostly intact but the broker lowers volumes estimates for FY21-23 to reflect lower non-housing lending. 

Rating is maintained at Buy with a target price of $23.50.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $18.76 Difference: $4.74
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.24, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Buy (1) -

With SMI (Standard Media Index) industry data released, UBS has upgraded its FY21 metro TV market growth forecast to flat from -5% previously (year on year).

SMI data numbers show August metro TV booking growth improved to -10.2% from -25%. The broker notes a continuing improvement in TV markets is consistent with other industry feedback as well.

UBS thinks growth in the December quarter may improve significantly versus the September quarter. Group operating income forecasts upgraded for FY21-FY22 EPS.

Buy rating reiterated with the target price increasing to $2.05 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.13
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.14, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth's solid 8% quarter on quarter increase in funds under administration is in line with the broker's forecast. Inflows have met the run-rate to reach guidance of $8bn in FY21. 

Cash balances, which surged in March, continue to drift lower. Management has declared it will absorb the impact of another RBA rate cut through lower administration fees, which would undermine revenues, the broker notes.

Valuation appears to be expensive but justifiable on the broker's compound annual growth rate estimation. Neutral and $14.75 target retained.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $17.27 Difference: minus $2.52 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.67, suggesting downside of -29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Netwealth Group reported net inflows for the first quarter of $1.9bn bringing the total funds under administration (FUA) up to $34bn.

Macquarie highlights flows continue to meet or beat expectations and expects platform margin pressure to persist.

Macquarie adjusts EPS forecasts for FY21 and FY22 by -3.3% and 7%, respectively. For the period FY23-26 forecasts are raised by between 20-40%.

These changes incorporate a -15 basis point cut to forecast interest rates offset by material increases to inflow expectations by the broker to reflect increased market share for the company.

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform and the target price is increased to $17.50 from $7.25 (not a typo).

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.27 Difference: $0.23
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.67, suggesting downside of -29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its oil price forecasts in line with the forward curve. The broker has shifted its US$60 per barrel (bbl) long-term oil price assumption from 2023 to 2024. Using the forward curve over the next 13 quarters, 2023 oil price is expected to be lower at US$45/bbl.

Investors are recommended to seek a broad sector exposure. 

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating on Origin Energy to Buy from Accumulate with the target price falling to $7.45 from $7.60.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $2.98
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.36, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

Pacific Smiles Group provided its second monthly comps update showing accelerating comps in September. Group comps financial year to date to September was 10% versus 8.7% in August.  

Morgan Stanley considers the group's strong September comps performance shows its resiliency despite almost 30% of the network in lockdown. Easing Melbourne restrictions are a tailwind with dental services returning to normal.

The broker believes Pacific Smiles is on track to achieve its revenue growth guidance. Target is $2.25. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.5
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PTM as Neutral (3) -

Platinum Asset Management reported a slightly better funds under management number to September than the broker forecast, but outflows continue. International Fund returns remains below benchmark on a one, three and five year basis.

By contrast, the Asia Fund outperformed, but only represents 25% of FUM, and the broker questions whether there is much of a risk appetite domestically for Asian products. Neutral and $3.30 target retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0
If PTM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Population growth forecasts were revised down over 2021-23 in the federal budget as a result of declining net overseas migration (border closures) and a declining fertility rate with families delaying having children amid the uncertainty associated with covid-19.

This leads UBS to reduce its private hospital volume assumptions for the period 2020-22. It needs to be noted since those aged 50 years and above have the greatest private hospital utilisation, the magnitude of the change in volume growth forecast is less than the change in revised population due to demographics and the broker does not make any changes to its current assumptions.

UBS does not expect any uplift in contribution from private health insurance participation or utilisation of policies.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $71.20.

Target price is $71.20 Current Price is $69.49 Difference: $1.71
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.52, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Based on Bloomberg shipping data, Ord Minnett estimates iron ore shipments for Rio Tinto of 84mt, down from 87mt in the second quarter.

The broker considers the 2020 guidance of 324–334mt to be achievable although admits it is disappointed to see shipments lower in a clear weather quarter.

Also, copper volumes are expected to be lower on a quarterly basis on the back of grades at Kennecott Utah Copper (KUC), and workforce restrictions at Escondida. 

The rating for Rio Tinto is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the price target unchanged at $122.

Target price is $122.00 Current Price is $97.96 Difference: $24.04
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $107.64, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett expects a mixed quarter for South32 with steady aluminium, coal and manganese ore production marred by lower output at Cannington and Cerro Matoso.

The broker notes news on the SAEC divestment and updates on the Hermosa study will be watched keenly by the market.

The broker upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate with the target price unchanged at $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.82
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

Production at Gwalia was down -40% year on year, impacting the September quarter production result. St Barbara still maintains Gwalia guidance (175-190koz) but Citi thinks making up the shortfall will be a tough ask. The broker has trimmed its expectation for FY21 to 171koz.

Production at Simberi was -14% below the broker's expectations due to unscheduled maintenance while Moose River produced 5% above expectations. 

Citi retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $3.60.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.58
If SBM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Underperform (5) -

St Barbara has provided a preliminary first quarter production update. The group production of 73.0koz was -8% short of Macquarie's estimate. This was considered largely due to a previously announced rockfall in the Gwalia decline.

Additionally, Simberi was impacted by unplanned maintenance while Atlantic was in-line with the broker's expectations.

Macquarie reduces FY21 and FY22 EPS estimates by -7% and -5%, respectively.

The Underperform rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $3.00 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SBM as Overweight (1) -

St Barbara's Gwalia gold production was -35% below the broker's forecast due to a rockfall which disrupted production more than expected. Morgan Stanley believes the soft September quarter is likely to be recovered in the second quarter.

Atlantic gold production was 7% above the broker's estimate while Simberi was -7% below Morgan Stanley's expectations due to unscheduled maintenance work.

Overweight rating is maintained with a target price of $4. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.98
If SBM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Accumulate (2) -

St Barbara's first-quarter production update saw production to be in-line at Moose River (Canada) and Simberi (Papua New Guinea). Gwalia operations (Western Australia) were weaker than the guidance but executed to recover in the second quarter.

FY21 production guidance for Gwalia remains unchanged at 175–190koz, suggesting management remains confident of a strong turnaround.

Accumulate rating and $3.80 target retained.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.78
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Buy (1) -

Citi notes scrap steel prices in key regions are rising with prices in Turkey and Taiwan up 39% and 36% from March lows. US scrap is now in line with March levels.

US HRC scrap is priced at circa US$675/tonne and leads the global price recovery. The scrap spread has increased to circa US$360/t versus the long term average of US$325/t. This is also seen in Europe.

Citi has made adjustments to Sims earnings estimates due to the recent moves in scrap prices. Operating income for FY2 has been revised up.

The broker sees upside risk for world ex-China steel production in 2021. Global HRC-scrap spreads are expected to moderate with scrap prices moving up.

The Buy rating is maintained. The target price is unchanged at $9.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: $1.32
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.48, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its oil price forecasts in line with the forward curve. The broker has shifted its US$60 per barrel (bbl) long-term oil price assumption from 2023 to 2024. Using the forward curve over the next 13 quarters, 2023 oil price is expected to be lower at US$45/bbl.

Investors are recommended to seek a broad sector exposure. The broker prefers Santos among the large-cap energy stocks under its coverage. Its 2020 earnings forecast for Santos has increased 2% after including actual September-quarter commodity prices.

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate with the target price decreasing slightly to $7.25 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $2.21
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXL as Neutral (3) -

The Southern Cross Media Group announced it is eligible for continued support under the extended JobKeeper program. This should result in around $12m of support payments in the first half, calculates Macquarie.

Operationally, the broker believes continued ad market headwinds should constrain revenue growth and expects that share gains will be difficult to come by in the short term.

According to the analyst, cost efficiency remains a focus for the group, with a leaner operating and cost model to be implemented across the business.

Macquarie reduces EPS estimates for FY21-FY23 by -6.5%, -2.5% and -2.5%, respectively, with JobKeeper payments offset by a lower radio market and market share forecasts.

The Neutral rating and target price of $0.18 are unchanged.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.01
If SXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.17, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its oil price forecasts in line with the forward curve. The broker has shifted its US$60 per barrel (bbl) long-term oil price assumption from 2023 to 2024. Using the forward curve over the next 13 quarters, 2023 oil price is expected to be lower at US$45/bbl.

Investors are recommended to seek a broad sector exposure. Within Ord Minnett's small-cap coverage, Senex Energy remains the preferred energy pick on account of its fixed-price contracts and strong balance sheet.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the target price intact at $0.39.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.07
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Sezzle’s September quarter business update was a strong one, comments Ord Minnett. The company reached almost 1.8m active consumers and reached annualised underlying merchant sales (UMS) of circa US$986m for September.

The combination of strong customer additions along with an increasing trend for average spend per customer, Ord Minnett sees Sezzle well positioned to deliver strong underlying merchant sales (UMS) numbers in the December quarter.

With the Ally lending partnership to be launched in the March quarter and the Target Corp proof of concept underway, the broker notes there is plenty to look forward to in 2021.

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating with a target price of $11.80.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $8.26 Difference: $3.54
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The first quarter traffic update for Transurban Group revealed to Macquarie softer-than-expected traffic as a result of a weak August in Sydney and Brisbane.

The broker notes that covid-19 continues to ravage Citylink -59% and the US -30% to -50%. 

By pursuing external investors for US assets the group will reduce an ongoing capex burden, according to the analyst.

Macquarie warns the yield will be under pressure as the covid-19 recovery drags out.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price is increased to $14.49 from $14.45.

Target price is $14.49 Current Price is $14.01 Difference: $0.48
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.34, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Transurban Group's first-quarter average daily traffic was -25% versus last year but 0.3% ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate. Heavy vehicles were in line with the broker's forecast at circa 20% of total traffic.

On a geographical basis, traffic in Sydney and Brisbane was circa -2% below the broker's estimate, offset by the Melbourne Citylink which was about 9% ahead of its estimate.

The group flagged the potential introduction of equity partners into its Greater Washington DC business over the near-medium term, similar to the arrangements in both Queensland and NSW.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating. Target is unchanged at $14.88. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $14.88 Current Price is $14.01 Difference: $0.87
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.34, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

Transurban Group released its first quarter traffic data. For the overall portfolio, average daily traffic (ADT) decreased -29% on the previous corresponding quarter, calculates Morgans. The broker notes the decline is -25% after factoring in the commencement of tolling on the WestConnex M8/M5E in Sydney.

The traffic performance was softer than Morgans had assumed for the first half, but the analyst is optimistic of improvement in the second quarter.

The broker highlights the company's plans to introduce equity partners into its Express Lanes. While it's considered this will raise capital to fund future investment, it will also provide interesting proof of value.

Morgans forecasts an around 37cps dividend in FY21. The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $14.11 from $13.71.

Target price is $14.11 Current Price is $14.01 Difference: $0.1
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.34, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Transurban Group's September quarter traffic was down -29% on a like for like basis. Melbourne and Washington continue to be laggards due to restrictions but Brisbane, down -9%, showed the strongest result. Sydney (excluding new assets) was down -10%. 

Tolling commenced on the M8 during the quarter and UBS expects NorthConnex to come online in the next few weeks. The broker believes these projects could boost growth over the next 2-3 years.

CityLink traffic was down circa -60% for the September quarter and the broker expects traffic to continue at this run-rate for October. Forecasts for CityLink now assume traffic will be down -30% for the December quarter.

UBS retains its Buy rating with a target price of $15.50.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.01 Difference: $1.49
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.34, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Volpara Health Technologies has provided a trading update indicating to Morgans a solid second quarter of FY21.

The broker upgrades the rating to Add from speculative Buy in the belief that the business has successfully integrated the MRS acquisition and the underlying annual recurring revenue (ARR) is on a solid growth trajectory. However, no changes were made to forecasts.

The result was pleasing to the analyst given the second quarter is traditionally weaker and the company has navigated covid-19 well.

The increase in ARR was assisted by a significant contract with one of the company's earliest enterprise customers, notes the broker.

The target price is unchanged at $1.73.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.3
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Citi has lowered its cash earnings forecasts for Westpac Bank for FY20-22 to reflect revised net interest income assumptions. Lower net interest margins reflect an increase in liquid assets but also lower volume assumptions.

The broker has upgraded its assumptions for outer year net interest margins but expects volumes to remain subdued. Buy rating maintained. The target price is $23.50.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $18.12 Difference: $5.38
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.11, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its oil price forecasts in line with the forward curve. The broker has shifted its US$60 per barrel (bbl) long-term oil price assumption from 2023 to 2024. Using the forward curve over the next 13 quarters, 2023 oil price is expected to be lower at US$45/bbl.

Investors are recommended to seek a broad sector exposure. 

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating for Woodside Petroleum. Target is reduced to $23.55 from $25.00.

Target price is $23.55 Current Price is $18.28 Difference: $5.27
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.93, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources