Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's trading update as part of the US roadshow revealed refining margins from Lytton in both October and November were well above market expectations for the current December quarter, Ord Minnett explains.

The refiner pointed to refining margins of US$13.78/barrel for October and US$17.90 for November with respective production of 496 megalitres and 532 megalitres. This equates to a December quarter refining margin of US$15/barrel on the analyst's estimate vs consensus of US$8.40/barrel.

The broker highlights EPS forecasts already sat well above consensus, but post-update upgraded EPS estimates by 7.7% for 2025 and 4.8% for 2026.

Target price lifts to $37 from $36 with a Buy rating reiterated.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $31.92 Difference: $5.08
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.67, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Neutral (3) -

Despite PSA/Ki Corp's failed bid, Citi reckons Abacus Storage King looks like a credible takeover target due to ongoing global interest in Australian self-storage

Other reasons include its -13.8% discount to NTA, and the company and Abacus Group ((ABG)) considering internalising the management agreement.

Overall, potential M&A creates upside risk for Abacus Storage King in the broker's view. Neutral, with unchanged target of $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.005
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group is selling a 49% stake in its WA Iron Ore (WAIO) inland power network to Global Infrastructure Partners for about US$2bn, crystallising value from infrastructure. The company will have operational control through a new trust/JV. 

Citi notes the cash boosts balance-sheet flexibility and could help sustain FY26 dividends, in line with peer-style infrastructure monetisations. The broker's estimate is for US$6bn dividend with 55% payout.

With power demand set to rise as WAIO electrifies over the coming decades, the partnership also helps fund and de-risk future capex while giving the new partner a long-term growth platform, the broker believes.

Neutral. Target price $47. The broker has a positive short-term view on the stock.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $44.54 Difference: $2.46
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.32, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BWP as Buy (1) -

After speaking with BWP Trust's management (pre-blackout), Citi expects cap rates to tighten further, especially for Bunnings. The broker also expects BWP Trust to widen into other large-format retail and benefit from improved funding margins.

Tailwinds include management internalisation, retail cap-rate compression, solid consumer-driven retail demand, and long leases with built-in rent escalators supporting steady growth.

Buy maintained. Target unchanged at $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.11
If BWP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHN as Neutral (3) -

Chalice Mining reported the much awaited Gonneville project preliminary feasibility study, which broadly met UBS' expectations of an open pit mine evolving to 14Mtpa from 5Mtpa.

The study is a step up from the scoping study in terms of easing of funding requirements, including lower capex, $1.66bn for both stages versus the analyst's forecast of $2bn, with a trade off between recovery costs and lower grades.

Mine life extension is on the cards, with 50% of the existing resource outside the pit. The project's AISC sits in the 2nd quartile of the palladium group metals cost curve, the analyst explains, at US$370/oz with the spot palladium price at US$1,515/oz.

Target price is lowered to $1.75, down -12% on lower grades. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.09
If CHN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 71.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FDV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Frontier Digital Ventures is reshaping the business, shutting low/zero-margin lines and moving the Iris platform to a subscription model. Additionally, the company undertook over 30% LATAM headcount cuts, with more optimisation planned in MENA and Asia.

The aim is to shift revenue toward higher-quality, more recurring streams to support better margins long term. The company's guidance for FY25 included write-offs and a -$3m receivables hit, lowering EBITDA to $3.3-4.3m vs the broker's prior forecast of $6.4m.

The broker expects a noisy FY25 result in February while the review runs into early 2026, with clearer performance from 2H26. FY25 EBITDA forecast cut by -22% and FY26 by -9%.

Speculative Buy. Target trimmed to 57c from 58c.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.27
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi’s poll showed the market widely expects a Goodman Group capital partnership and/or data-centre lease announcement soon, with 44% tipping news before 1H26 results in February. The rest expect it before the end of FY26.

The broker also expects FY26 to be active for capital raising and lease deals, with upside risk of a catalyst by or at the Feb interim result. Indeed, the broker has a 90-day upside catalyst watch expiring 2 March 2026.

The broker highlights Goodman's data centre-related hiring has been strong in Oct/Nov, above the 12-month average.

Buy. Target unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $29.29 Difference: $10.71
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.28, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

GQG Partners Nov 2025 FUM came in at US$166.1bn which met UBS' expectations, a lift of 1.5% m/m arising from investment returns up 3% versus net flows of -1.5%.

The fund manager experienced ongoing monthly outflows of -US$2.4bn, and although in line, the highest outflows were from its largest international strategy with some slowing outflows in US equity.

The broker tweaks EPS forecasts, down -0.1% for 2025 and -2.6% for 2026 due to the Nov FUM update.

Target price slips to $2.10 from $2.15 with a Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.325
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GYG as Buy (1) -

Guzman y Gomez's recently introduced limited-time BBQ Chicken Double Crunch is getting strong early taste feedback, Morgans notes. The product uses existing ingredients, so it adds no extra store cost and supports margins, the broker highlights.

The launch underscores menu innovation as a driver of same-store sales growth. The company expects FY26 sales to accelerate as the new Caesar menu (launched in September) gains traction, boosting early 2Q26 comps with a viral, heavy-push campaign.

The broker's forecast is for a 6% 2Q26 same-store sales growth. No change to forecasts.

Buy retained with unchanged target of $32.30.

Target price is $32.30 Current Price is $21.21 Difference: $11.09
If GYG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting upside of 31.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

The ACCC has blocked Insurance Australia Group's proposed acquisition of RACI, arguing it would substantially lessen competition in WA motor and home/contents insurance.

It flagged very high post-deal market shares (55-65% motor, 50-60% home) and said Insurance Australia Group would face too few competitive constraints. RACI was also judged to be a strong standalone competitor capable of handling industry pressures.

Citi observes Insurance Australia Group will reapply under the new mandatory merger regime starting 1 Jan 2026. The broker notes this means it could face another rejection before it can seek approval via a “net public benefit” test and potential tribunal appeal.

Given the complexity, the broker believes the merger may be pushed back by aroud 12 months if approved at all.

The broker points to the vulnerabilities of a state-based insurer operating on its own, as QLD weather events could also see RACQ exceed its $154m allowance since it isn’t yet under Insurance Australia Group's reinsurance umbrella.

Buy. Target price $10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.84 Difference: $2.16
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Commenting on the recent buying of James Hardie Industries' shares by directors, Citi concludes it is probably a reflection of upside risk to expectations, despite weak markets.

The broker reckons the new guidance implies stronger-than-expected volumes and potential FY26 cost-driven margin tailwinds.

Buy retained. Target price $37.20.

Target price is $37.20 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: $8.72
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.15, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -

Citi reviewed the WA project pipeline and found sentiment among contractors has improved markedly, with worries about award delays and thinning order books largely fading.

Contractors are now citing accelerating award momentum, a strong and diverse pipeline, rational pricing, and a key focus on productivity and capacity management.

With plentiful opportunities across commodities and sectors, the broker sees a “rising tide” environment. Both Monadelphous Group and NRW Holdings are seen as particularly well-positioned, with risks skewed to the upside versus expectations.

The broker believes Monadelphous will continue to win a larger share of work in FY25, supported by its strong track record, capabilities, and capacity.

Buy. Target price $28.75.

Target price is $28.75 Current Price is $25.38 Difference: $3.37
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi reviewed the WA project pipeline and found sentiment among contractors has improved markedly, with worries about award delays and thinning order books largely fading.

Contractors are now citing accelerating award momentum, a strong and diverse pipeline, rational pricing, and a key focus on productivity and capacity management.

With plentiful opportunities across commodities and sectors, the broker sees a “rising tide” environment. Both Monadelphous Group and NRW Holdings are seen as particularly well-positioned, with risks skewed to the upside versus expectations.

NRW's active tender pipeline remains high with a solid win rate, with the broker seeing the creation of a fourth pillar further accelerating growth, particularly in data centres and HVAC.

Buy. Target price $5.95.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.86
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

In a cost base and margin comparison between Orica and Dyno Nobel ((DNL)), Macquarie highlights more details are anticipated for Orica as part of management's "refresh program" in March.

The new Chairman post the Oct 16 AGM, Vil Bansal, has a robust track record of achieving cost-outs in his former position as CEO of Boral, the analyst states.

Dyno Nobel's EBIT margins are higher than Orica's with an ongoing $300m transformation program. Macquarie forecasts Dyno Nobel's FY27 EBIT margin to be 15.9% in the first full year of explosives, which sits 250bps above Orica's 13.4% comparable margin.

The analyst believes there are pathways to narrow the gap with cost-outs and a change in earnings mix.

Target price remains at $25.95 with an Outperform rating. No change to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $25.95 Current Price is $23.50 Difference: $2.45
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Neutral (3) -

In a flash update, Citi highlights new listing volumes continued to fall in November, down -4% y/y, aligning with the decline rate in October, despite cycling a low base a year ago at -5% y/y.

Year-to-date new listings have fallen by -6% y/y. Potential interest rate hikes could impact listings going forward, despite comps becoming easier, the analyst explains.

From a geographic perspective, the two highest yielding markets, Sydney and Melbourne, experienced volume growth up 6% y/y in November against a rise of 4% in October and 2% in September.

Citi rates REA Group as Neutral with a $279.25 target price.

Target price is $279.25 Current Price is $190.64 Difference: $88.61
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $256.46, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie analyst visited Rio Tinto's Rincon and Fenix lithium projects in Argentina, and concludes Fenix appears first-quartile and near Tier One, while Rincon still needs to prove itself.

The broker reckons success in DLE (direct lithium extraction) strategy could materially reshape industry dynamics.

Fenix is progressing well, with three production trains operating and Line 1B due in 2H2026. The broker is comfortable with Line 1B commissioning and ramp-up, given Fenix’s mature flowsheet and nearly three decades of operating history.

Rincon has lagged expectations following the shift from evaporation to DLE. The 50ktpa full-scale project faces execution and cost risks while the optimal resin solution is still being finalised, the broker notes.

Neutral. Target price $130.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $137.50 Difference: minus $7.5 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $132.42, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the updated US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services final rule limits the 2026 competitive bidding round to “Remote Item Delivery” products, and CPAP is explicitly excluded.

CPAP stands for Continuous Positive Airway Pressure, a therapy for sleep apnea. The broker had previously stated if CPAP stays out of competitive bidding, it would lift a near-term overhang on ResMed and could trigger a re-rating.

This has now come to pass. The broker is also watching for any update on when Philips/Respironics may re-enter the US device market, while noting ResMed’s strong recent performance and undemanding valuation.

Overweight. Target unchanged at US$305 for NYSE-listed stock. Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $38.77. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $49.01, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Scentre Group issued a statement in response to a media article stating Australian Retirement Trust is conducting due diligence on acquiring a stake in Westfield Sydney. 

The company said it actively engages in discussions with third parties about JV opportunities "which "may or may not result in new transactions for the Group." 

The broker reckons strong institutional demand and cap-rate compression across Australian retail assets suggest any sale of Westfield Sydney would occur at a premium to its Dec-24 valuation. The broker already expects valuation and NTA uplift at the FY25 results. 

Sale proceeds would give Scentre capacity to pursue double-digit IRR residential developments, retail expansions, and accretive subordinated note buybacks beyond its normal 10% annual programme, in the broker's view.

Buy retained. Target price $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.6
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STH as Buy (1) -

StepChange bought BroadReach Group, a Perth ICT consultancy, adding advisory strength and tier-one/government clients that open cross-sell and reduce reliance on energy.

The broker reckons the government-agency relationships are especially positive, since they broaden the company's revenue base and lessen its reliance on the energy sector.

Ord Minnett notes the company is paying $2.5m upfront plus 18-month performance earn-outs. The broker expects 3-11% EPS accretion and sees FY26 revenue growth of 27% y/y.

Target rises to 26c from 23c. Buy maintained.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.11
If STH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SYL as Buy (1) -

Symal Group is acquiring Timms Group and L&D Contracting’s QLD civil/haulage businesses for $28m cash at 3.5x EBITDA, plus an earn-out. 

Morgans considers the acquisition as a good fit to the company's strategy to broaden geography and sectors. The move into South East Queensland strengthens its East Coast footprint and exposure to major infrastructure work.

The company expects $8m FY26 EBITDA and first-year EPS accretion from the deal. The broker revised its forecasts, leading to a 4% lift in FY26 EPS forecast and a 3% increase to FY27.

Buy. Target rises to $3.75 from $2.40, with the bulk of the increase coming from the unwind of the discount to valuation.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.68
If SYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SYL as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Symal Group is acquiring Timms Group and L&D Contracting for $28m upfront, valuing the deal at up to 3.5x EV/EBITDA, with $28m of assets included, Ord Minnett notes.

The purchase boosts Symal’s footprint in Southeast QLD civil/infrastructure ahead of a major construction upswing, supported by a cited $103.9bn QLD project pipeline over 5 years. 

The broker highlights a key differentiator is a long-term exclusive tipping-site contract, likely to be valuable as big builds (incl. 2032 Olympics) ramp up.

Target rises to $3.10 from $2.50 after upgrading earnings forecasts to account for the acquisition. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.03
If SYL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes the NSW government announced tolling reform, retaining the $60 toll cap indefinitely and cutting annual compensation to $5k from around $17.7k, aimed at high-use drivers.

Two-way tolling on SHB/T with WHT from FY29 could add $200-300m revenue and likely trigger bi-directional tolling on ED as well, the broker highlights.

The broker reckons the removal of admin fees from FY27 should be cost-neutral for Transurban Group, and the government’s extra $200m revenue pool may be used to adjust motorway pricing. This includes potentially removing above-CPI increases.

The broker viewed tolling reform as incremental rather than disruptive, and if admin fees are earnings-neutral, the analyst considers fewer vehicles going through enforcement to be modestly positive for tolls.

Neutral. Target price $14.55.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $14.67 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.51, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Citi's analysis of the latest Nielsen data (4 weeks to 29 November) showed Treasury Americas sales were down -14% versus market's -4% drop. This was a worsening from the prior period's -10% fall.

Within luxury, DAOU (49% of Treasury Americas net sales revenue) eked out 3% growth, while Frank Family plunged -17%, its steepest drop in 10 months. Premium brands were mixed, with 19 Crimes still very weak, down -25%, but Matua steady at 4% growth.

The broker reminds that while Nielsen has coverage gaps, it’s still viewed as a useful read-through, especially for the off-premise-heavy luxury mix and tracking 19 Crimes.

Sell retained for Treasury Wine Estates. Target unchanged at $5.11.

Target price is $5.11 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.14, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources