Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

At first glance, the FY22 results suggest costs remain a problem for AMP. Underlying net profit was lower than UBS expected and core profit drivers continue to be disappointing. Underlying net  profit fell -34% to $184m.

The broker's first impressions are of deep challenges facing the core business, with guidance for FY23 suggesting it will not become easier any time soon. Sell rating and $1.09 target maintained.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

First half results were weaker than Macquarie expected. While de-stocking is anticipated to moderate in the second half, the delay seems greater relative to prior expectations.

There are positive trends, nevertheless, in the full year guidance, although the broker suspects this is likely to have a more medium-term impact, underpinned by demand for differentiated products.

Neutral rating maintained for Ansell. Target is reduced to $27.00 from $29.20.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.79 Difference: $1.21
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.26, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -

In an initial read, first half results were in line with expectations. Bapcor's guidance suggests a slight improvement in the second half trading although UBS notes more progress is required on reducing inventory levels.

Results were led by trade and retail was better than anticipated. Buy rating and $7.60 target.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $1.39
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

CommBank delivered first half cash earnings in line with consensus expectations at $5,153m, but a -3% miss to Citi's forecasts. A net interest margin of 2.10% was a slight miss to the broker's expected 2.16%, and Citi expects concern around peak margins to increase.

The bank's result suggests net interest margins remained flat over the second quarter, likely driving speculation that peak margins for the current cycle are nearing.

The broker expects speculation to be supported by developments in mortgages and deposits, with home loan revenue declining -10% in the half. 

The Sell rating and target price of $85.50 are retained. 

Target price is $85.50 Current Price is $103.00 Difference: minus $17.5 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Ongoing cash earnings for CommBank in the 1H came in -1% shy of the prior forecasts made by Credit Suisse and consensus. It's felt the benefits from rising interest rates have peaked earlier than the market was expecting.

Emerging asset quality fears may impact the bank's valuation, notes the analyst, while the outlook for the sector is for slowiing asset growth, flat/receding margins and ongoing expense inflation.

Credit Suisse lowers its target to $93 from $97.50 noting CommBank's premium valution, along with its exposure to the consumer. Underperform.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $103.00 Difference: minus $10 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie suggests caution regarding the margin outlook overshadowed the strong first half performance from CommBank. Management appears conservative regarding the changes to deposit mix, elevated mortgage competition and rising funding costs.

Despite the appeal of the business, the likelihood of earnings downgrades makes the current multiple difficult to justify, in the broker's opinion, and an Underperform rating is maintained.

Margins are expected to remain broadly flat in the second half. Target is unchanged at $94.

Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $103.00 Difference: minus $9 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

CommBank's December-half result proved a mixed bag, and no margin, loan-loss or expense guidance was provided for FY23, Morgan Stanley observing a cautious tone creeping into management commentary.

The result met consensus' forecasts, thanks to strong earnings, but missed Morgan Stanley's estimates at the revenue, loan loss, cash profit and pre-provision level.

Margins rose 23 basis points despite a 4.5% rise in expenses (a beat on consensus) but the broker suspects margins have peaked given weakness in recent monthly trend data.

On the capital management front, the bank outpaced the broker on its CET1 metric and increased its buyback by $1bn.

Underweight rating retained. Target price falls to $85 from $88. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $103.00 Difference: minus $18 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Morgans retains its Hold rating for CommBank following 1H results though suggests investors consider trimming overweight positions given concerns regarding a weakening domestic economy and peak cycle earnings.

The result was solid, according to the broker, with strong operating profit growth offset by the reversal of credit impairment releases. An apparent early peak in the net interest margin (NIM) was considered the key negative.

Cash EPS growth was broadly in line with the analyst's expectation, while the interim dividend increased by 20% on both an increased payout ratio and earnings growth. The company also increased its current $2bn on-market share buyback by another $1bn.

The target rises to $96.11 from $93.48 after Morgans allows for the result and reduces its risk-free rate assumption. 

Target price is $96.11 Current Price is $103.00 Difference: minus $6.89 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Despite tests to CommBank's reputation the bank delivered a strong first half according to Ord Minnett, lifting cash net profits 9%. Net interest margins recovered by 18 basis points, while loans grew 7%.

The broker predicts a 2.1% net interest margin over 2023, up from 1.9% in 2022.

With the stock trading at a material premium to the broker's target price Ord Minnett finds it expensive on most measures, but the bank's market leading deposit franchise and brand strength underpin the broker's rating. 

The Hold rating and target price of $87.00 are retained. 

Target price is $87.00 Current Price is $103.00 Difference: minus $16 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

First half results were largely in line with expectations. UBS notes the CommBank share price, despite the record result, was down -6% on the back of concerns that net interest margins have peaked.

The broker downgrades estimates for cash earnings per share for FY23 and FY24 by -6% and -4%, respectively. UBS believes the bank's market share position is defensible and there are still growth opportunities outside of the core retail franchise.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $101 from $105.

Target price is $101.00 Current Price is $103.00 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Cochlear has reported first half net profits of $142m, and maintained full year net profits guidance of $290-305m. Citi anticipates a positive market reaction to the result. 

Citi was surprised by the company's announcement of a new on-market share buyback, expected to reduce its cash balance to $200m over several years, and by -$75m in the next twelve months. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $225.00 are retained.

Target price is $225.00 Current Price is $225.28 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $219.27, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COH as Neutral (3) -

First half underlying profit for Cochlear came in 5% ahead of the consensus forecast driven by a 14% increase in implant unit sales in an ongoing post-covid recovery for both Developed and Emerging markets, explains Credit Suisse.

The analyst also points out profit for Acoustics was above expectation with Osia 2 continuing to take market share. While costs were elevated, this was not considered a surprise.

Management reiterated FY23 profit guidance. The broker expects strong revenue growth though earnings will be held back by re-investment into the business. A $75m/year buyback is assumed over the next three years, after the company announced a new program.

Morgans raises its target to $235 from $232. Neutral.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $225.28 Difference: $9.72
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $219.27, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -

First half results were broadly in line with Macquarie's estimates, with gross profit 1% ahead of expectations. FY23 net profit guidance of $290-305m was reaffirmed.

The broker captures the improved profit forecasts for FY23-24 but, given elevated valuations, maintains an Underperform rating.

Cochlear has announced a buyback program with the aim of reducing the cash balance to $200m over several years. Macquarie assumes a total buyback value of $375m to FY27. Target is raised to $198 from $194.

Target price is $198.00 Current Price is $225.28 Difference: minus $27.28 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $219.27, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Cochlear's December-half result outpaced Morgan Stanley by 7%, thanks to a 9.5% beat in revenue. Margins proved a miss as higher operational expenses outpaced a lower tax and interest bill.

Management announced an on-market share buyback over several years, starting with $75m for the first year.

Of particular note was a sharp beat in the company's CI revenue, leading the broker to suspect the company may be stemming market share losses and be back on the market-share growth path.

Rating upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight, the broker expecting the CI unit growth, and the N8 launch will drive stronger June-half earnings. Target price rises to $214, which compares with the last entry in the FNArena data base on February 7 of $190. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $214.00 Current Price is $225.28 Difference: minus $11.28 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $219.27, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COH as Add (1) -

Cochlear's first half results were better than Morgans expected and FY23 guidance was reaffirmed, which implies a stronger 2H.

There was strong sales growth in both developed and emerging markets, while opex for market growth initiatives and cloud computing weighed on earnings (EBIT), explains the analyst.

Services were flat, as the broker had expected, with the strong result driven by Cochlear Implants and Acoustics on demand for the new Nucleus 8 sound processor and a recovery in surgeries.

Morgans increases its target to $250.60 from $236.70. Add.

Target price is $250.60 Current Price is $225.28 Difference: $25.32
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $219.27, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -

Cochlear has reiterated guidance for an underlying net profit margin of 18% and net profit of $290-305m. Ord Minnett estimates the mid point of guidance implies 9% revenue growth in fiscal 2023, to $1.79bn.

The first half performance of cochlear implants and acoustics was better than Ord Minnett expected. Yet the broker decreases net profit forecasts for the next 10 years by an average -5%, because of the recent weakening of the US dollar.

The shares are considered overvalued as Ord Minnett suspects current sales growth in emerging markets and acoustics is being supported by pent-up demand following the lockdowns and surgical restrictions. Lighten rating and $193 target maintained.

Target price is $193.00 Current Price is $225.28 Difference: minus $32.28 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $219.27, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Computershare's 1H EPS was a 4% beat versus Credit Suisse though a -3% miss against the consensus forecast. It's felt the business has shifted from a margin income (MI) growth story to a restructuring/capital management story.

Margin income was higher than forecast by the analyst, offset by a miss on earnings ex MI and a higher-than-expected tax rate.

Management reiterated FY23 EPS guidance, which disappointed the broker, as this implies FY23 earnings ex MI will decline by -20-25%.

The broker makes only minor forecast changes and retains its $27 target and Outperform rating.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $3.4
If CPU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considers the first half result mixed, with earnings guidance unchanged and a 1.3% upgrade to prior guidance for margin income in FY23 along with a -2% downgrade to FY24 margin income.

Additional cost reductions across Computershare's business are expected to help across FY24-26, should bond yields revert. As well, the broker expects the business will benefit from the earnings pipeline of higher yields,  integration of the Wells acquisition and a recovery in US Mortgage Services.

An Outperform rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $28 from $31.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $4.4
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Equal-weight (3) -

Computershare's December-half EPS missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts by -7% as improved costs failed to offset a retreat in core revenue due to issues with the US mortgage servicing business. The net-profit-after-tax result missed consensus by -3%.

The broker cuts EPS forecasts by -2.5% in the FY23 June half; and the same for FY24. Dividend forecasts fall sharply

On the upside, margin income rose again and the company's new stage 4 cost programs is forecast to deliver savings in Mortgage Services of -US$40m-50m over four years, the broker describing the cost-for-cost efficiency as strong.

The broker observes 20% of margin income balances are hedged and management plans to increase this by up to 50% over the next year. Morgan Stanley spies risk to consensus forecasts.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target price eases to $25.20 from $26.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $1.6
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

Computershare's 1H management profit was a -3% miss versus the consensus forecast, while the interim dividend of 30cps was well adrift of the 35cps expected.

While the analyst concedes 15.5% return on invested capital (ROIC) for the period was clearly strong, a -40% decline (versus the previous corresponding period) in group earnings (EBIT) - ex margin income - was a key negative.

Management reaffirmed FY23 EPS growth guidance of around 90% on the previous corresponding period, while margin income guidance was raised to $810m from $800m. Cost savings of -US$40-50m are expected via the company's cost-out plan.

Morgans lowers its target to $29.78 from $30.97. Add.

Target price is $29.78 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $6.18
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

In the wake of the first half results, Ord Minnett lowers its target by -8% to $24 amid unfavourable exchange rates. The broker considers Computershare in strong financial shape amid a strengthening of the balance sheet.

The Wells Fargo business has quickly generated returns since acquisition in November 2021 while rising interest rates have more than tripled the average yield on cash balances over that period. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $0.4
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Computershare produced a record first half, with UBS noting margin income as the driver and compensating for softer revenue growth in some areas.

The broker notes the balance sheet has deleveraged quickly since the Wells Fargo business acquisition and, consequently, the dividend payout of 46% appears "surprisingly low", which could be a sign of some planned activity.

Management also alluded to finalising the CCT integration before considering capital management. An accretive acquisition could be the preferred approach, the broker assesses, with a buyback the likely backup plan. Buy rating. Target is reduced to $29.00 from $30.50.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $5.4
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

Over staffing in preparation of a travel rebound in the US that failed to emerge was a key driver of Corporate Travel Management's -9% headline miss compared to Citi's expectations, alongside a lack of understanding from the market about the depth of the company's second half skew. 

Corporate Travel Management reported first half earnings of $51m and revenue of $292m. The broker finds company guidance implies a stable to growing market ahead, but feels recovery has stalled in reality, and anticipates a second half skew of 70%. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $18.49 are retained.

Target price is $18.49 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $2.74
If CTD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.78, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

In reaction to 1H results by Corporate Travel Management, Credit Suisse lowers its FY23-25 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -7-9% after a weaker-than-expected outcome in North America.

A&NZ recorded record revenue and total transaction volumes (TTV) in both regions and Europe continues to perform well, according to the broker.

Earnings for the half were a -44% miss compared to the consensus estimate. Management noted excess staffing contributed to the outcome, which raises questions for the analyst over the company's visibility over its North American operations.

The target falls to $16.50 from $18.50. Neutral.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $0.75
If CTD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.78, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTD as Neutral (3) -

First half results were below Macquarie's expectations, requiring a larger skew now in order to reach FY23 guidance. North America was weaker than expected and this provides the risk to both guidance and a full recovery in FY24.

Guidance for the latter year was "partly reconfirmed", while the broker notes specific guidance for revenue and operating earnings was removed. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $17.44 from $19.95.

Target price is $17.44 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $1.69
If CTD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.78, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, Corporate Travel Management's December-half result outpaced Morgan Stanley's estimates, and management reiterated FY23 guidance, which suggest the full-year result will fall at the top of the consensus range, says the broker.

Morgan Stanley says the result held few surprises, and is likely to be well received by the market with all regions posting a profit. Management expects to hit pre-covid profit levels this year.

Of note says the broker: staff costs were on the high side but the company expects to convert this expense into higher turnover in the second half; cash conversion was soft due to a timing issue; and the broker seeks clarity around a European logistics opportunity.

Overweight rating and $27.50 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $11.75
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.78, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CTD as Add (1) -

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) for the 1H slightly missed Morgans forecast due to the employment by Corporate Travel Management of additional staff for a recovery that didn't quite eventuate.

However, the overall 1H result was only a slight miss compared to implied guidance and the broker's forecast, despite additional costs incurred in anticipation of a strong recovery in the 2H and FY24.

The midpoint of management's earnings guidance was slightly better than consensus, though the analyst downgrades its NPATA forecasts on higher tax and D&A charges.

The Add rating is retained and the target falls to $21.90 from $25.65.

Target price is $21.90 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $6.15
If CTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.78, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTD as Hold (3) -

Corporate Travel Management's December-half result outpaced Ord Minnett's forecast and, while the balance sheet sharply deteriorated, it remains attractive in comparison to global peers, observes the broker. 

Management guided to a stronger June half although the broker spies several structural challenges ahead, the SME pressure to decouple TMC revenue models into transaction and advice, sustainability, and pressure on airline margins.

But Ord Minnett believes the company's capital strength sets it apart from global peers, citing the company's capacity to tap capital markets and its $100m undrawn debt facility in a forecast period of consolidation.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises to $18.50 from $18.06.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $2.75
If CTD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.78, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Buy (1) -

UBS considers the negative reaction to the first half result was overdone, with the 30/70 skew between H1 and H2 already flagged at the AGM. A delayed US recovery was also flagged previously amid disruptions from constant flight cancellations.

The broker still considers Corporate Travel Management's guidance for FY23 EBITDA of $160-180m is achievable.

The business appears well able to leverage its technical advantage in a fragmented market and the broker maintains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $25.10 from $25.50.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $15.75 Difference: $9.35
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.78, suggesting upside of 20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Neutral (3) -

A fair value assessment of Dacian Gold's balance sheet by Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) will result in a -$35-40m non-cash impairment in the first half result. Nevertheless, this implies no change to Macquarie's underlying estimates for earnings per share.

Reducing the value of the plant means the target is lowered to $0.10 from $0.12. The offer from Genesis Minerals will close on February 20 and remains unconditional with acceptances of more than 78%. Neutral.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.003
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as No Rating (-1) -

Against a challenging backdrop, Dexus has managed to maintain a high 95% occupancy ratio and 26.6% gearing. While Citi remains cautious of domestic office supply-demand dynamics it considers Dexus to have operationally outperformed the sub-sector. 

The broker highlights Dexus continues to efficiently recycle capital, with the company reporting the disposal of $457m in industrial properties, $214m in office properties and $102m in healthcare properties. With no new acquisitions, this resulted in benefits to the gearing ratio, and trading profits of $48.7m.

Citi is not rated on this stock. 

Current Price is $8.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EXP as Buy (1) -

Experience Co's December-half result beat Ord Minnett's forecast, a reduction in gearing and headcount coinciding with a turning of the covid tables. The company posted a net loss of -$1.2m, compared with the broker's forecast of -$1.6m.

The broker believes the company is now poised to maximise the recovery in inbound visitors and expects strong half-on-half growth for the next two years, with a potential influx of Chinese visitors later in 2023. 

The company finished December with net cash of $5.2m and Ord Minnett expects free cash flow will rise sharply from here. EPS forecasts falls in FY23 to reflect depreciation.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 45c from 42c, the broker expecting the company to utilise $45m in tax losses out to FY26.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.155
If EXP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

At 1H results, Fletcher Building confirmed preliminary 1H results and guidance provided on February 13. On that day, FY23 guidance was reduced to NZ$800-855m from over NZ$855m due to wet weather in NZ over January and February.

Earnings for the 1H were misses against the forecasts of the broker and consensus by -13% and -16%, respectively.

Credit Suisse lowers its target to $4.10 from $4.80. The Neutral rating is unchanged and the broker points to valuation support from an attractive FY24 dividend yield.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If FBU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Outperform (1) -

Fletcher Building's half results were pre-released and, subsequently, Macquarie has become more confident in its Australasian volume forecasts. Pricing power is apparent in manufacturing segments against the backdrop of input cost inflation.

The broker also comments that residential unit sales while "interesting" are an incomplete forward indicator for residential construction, as the division's sales are dominated by Auckland and do not reveal details on infrastructure or sub-segments of residential.

Outperform rating and NZ$8 target price are retained.

Current Price is $4.59. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FBU as Accumulate (2) -

Fletcher Building's December-half result appears to have met Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker says dividend guidance suggests a -5.5% downgrade on the December-half guidance, but still remains a sequential 30% improvement in earnings (EBIT) half-on-half.

On the downside, the December-half result revealed weaker residential and development sales, where margins fell to 22.4% from 35.2%. While management suggests this was a timing issue, the broker believes the company will be hard-pressed to hit targets in a deteriorating residential market.

The balance sheet weakened, net debt to earnings rising to 1.25 times from 0.6 times, due to higher capital expenditure and land purchases. Cash flow slid as working capital demand for residential and development business rose.

Net, the broker believes the stock is -16.6% undervalued. Accumulate rating and $5.50 target price retained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.59 Difference: $0.91
If FBU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.87, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Sell (5) -

With Fortescue Metals' delivering a largely in-line first half result, Citi has made only minor changes to its forecasts for the company. Of note is the lowering of the broker's assumed dividend payout ratio to 65% from 70%. 

According to Citi, Fortescue Metals continues to benefit from low Chinese steel mill profitability, but with China's monetary environment suggesting a weakening of steel consumption in the first half of 2023, it expects this won't last.

The broker expects steel production cuts are inevitable, and that China property starts will be lower in 2023 than 2022. 

The Sell rating and target price of $18.00 are retained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $4 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse retains its $17.20 target and Underperform rating for Fortescue Metals following broadly in-line 1H results.

A 75c interim dividend was a -6% miss after a new lower 65% payout, which may become the new normal, and may confirm the analyst's concerns around free cash flow (FCF) and possibly a higher spend at Fortescue Future Industries (FFI).

The broker reduces its dividend forecast by -5-7% in FY23-25 on a 70% payout assumption, down from 75%.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $4.8 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

First half results were firm and in line with Macquarie's forecasts. Strong iron ore prices underpin upgrade momentum and the broker notes spot prices are generating 20% and 66% higher earnings for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

FY23 shipment guidance has been reiterated for 187-192mt, including shipments from Iron Bridge. First production from this mine is on schedule for the end of March.

The Underperform rating and target price of $17.50 are retained.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $4.5 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Fortescue Metals' December-half result met consensus' and Morgan Stanley forecasts. Free cash flow outpaced consensus by 23% and the broker by 12%. Guidance was reiterated.

The broker focuses on dividends, believing a key bone of contention remains the company's investment in growth capital expenditure at the expense of shareholder returns.

While the payout of 65% of net profit after tax is still within the company's forecast range, the broker doubts management will retain its tradition of paying a bigger dividend in the June half to take the payout to the upper end of the range.

Meanwhile, the company signalled a strong focus on the Gabon prospect and believes its track record on ramping up developments speaks for itself. But the broker believes the project adds country and environmental risk to the company's portfolio. 

Meanwhile, Fortescue Future Industries has five green energy projects awaiting final investment decision this year.

Underweight rating retained. Target price eases to $14.40 from the last entry in the FNArena database in January of $14.85. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $7.6 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -

Morgans assesses a steady 1H result for Fortescue Metals in the face of higher costs and lower prices.

The analyst observes the company's green hydrogen and decarbonisation ambitions must now be pursued with significantly reduced cash flow support. Unless iron ore prices bounce, an ongoing reduction in the dividend payout ratio is expected.

Management flagged its intention to declare a final investment decision (FID) for five projects within the Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) division in 2023.

The target rises to $16.10 from $15.60. Reduce.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $5.9 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Lighten (4) -

While Fortescue Metals' first half profit declined, Ord Minnett notes it was still strong and reflected elevated iron ore prices. Adjusted EBITDA of US$4.4bn was down -9% but in line with estimates, excluding expenditure on Fortescue Future Industries.

The broker expects fiscal 2023 production of 190mt, similar to 2022, and EBITDA of around US$8.7bn. Ord Minnett assesses the shares are trading at around a 48% premium to fair value and retains a Lighten rating. Target is steady at $15.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $7 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

First half results at Fortescue Metals were in line with expectations. Guidance is unchanged. UBS retains a cautious outlook for iron ore prices amid several uncertainties. A Sell rating is maintained with the target reduced to $18.40 from $18.70.

Up to five Fortescue Future Industries projects have been identified for a final investment decision in 2023 across Australia, Brazil, the US and Norway. The company has also reported a significant breakthrough in its novel green iron processing.

In terms of funding, UBS suspects the company will consider a partial equity sell down at the project level to help defray funding risk.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $22.00 Difference: minus $3.6 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Upon first glance, Citi believes Goodman Group's interim performance beat market consensus, but while FY23 guidance has been raised, the broker believes expectations were for an even better number.

Goodman Group is typically conservative with its guidance, recalls the broker. Citi sees potential for FY23 performance to beat upgraded guidance.

Getting into the nitty gritty of today's market update, asset values increased, despite higher cap rates, as strong rental growth flows through the valuations, the analyst explains.

Also, portfolio underlying performance continues to be strong with rising FUM (helped by higher acquisitions), but Citi explains fee rates were lower given a 2H23 performance fee skew.

Buy. Target $21.10.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $1.29
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.53, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Buy (1) -

In an initial view, Goodman Group's operating earnings were below UBS estimates for the first half. Cash flow from operating activities was $516m compared with $279m in the prior corresponding half, mainly because of decreased development expenditure.

Guidance is for operating EPS growth of 13.5%, an increase on prior guidance of 11%. Still, UBS is underwhelmed by the upgrade. Buy rating and $23 target.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: $3.19
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.53, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

A mixed bag from G.U.D. Holdings' first half result, with earnings of $89m a 9% beat to the broker's expectations while net profits of $45.6m were a -9% miss.

The broker highlights the net profit miss appears related to -$10.5m in post-tax expenses, primarily amortisation and inventory step up. 

The company is yet to provide full year guidance, but the broker notes both its AutoPacific Group and Davey subsidiaries both appear to have had a strong start to the second half. 

The Buy rating and target price of $10.00 are retained. 

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $1.06
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

After a balanced performance across divisions in the 1H, Credit Suisse notes underlying earnings (EBITA) for G.U.D. Holdings were in line with consensus.

The broker feels earnings results for the 2H and FY24 only have to achieve consensus expectations to drive an ongoing re-rating of the share price, such is the current undervaluation. Outperform.

Credit Suisse increases its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by 3.3-4.4%. A combination of valuation methodologies results in a $13.90 target, down from $14.10.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $4.96
If GUD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings were below forecasts, with the difference driven by AutoPacific Group. Macquarie believes the G.U.D. Holdings valuation is depressed and a recovery in the APG business remains the key catalyst.

Meanwhile the core automotive aftermarket, ex APG, is tracking slightly ahead of the AGM guidance. Sales in the water segment were softer than expected, amid a severe downturn in export sales because of de-stocking.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $11.60 from $13.24.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $2.66
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Accumulate (2) -

G.U.D. Holdings' December-half results largely met Ord Minnett's forecasts, as acquisitions supported high single-digit earnings (EBITDA) growth in the company's automotive business.

While the broker believes chip shortages will ease by year end, it expects this to dovetail with weaker consumer buying power.

Accumulate rating and $12.00 target price retained.

Note: EPS forecasts falls sharply as Ord Minnett transitions to white-labelling Morningstar research. The previous rating in the FNArena database for G.U.D. Holdings was Buy.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: $3.06
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line, although UBS points out expectations were low. Commentary regarding trading in January and February was positive and the APG guidance skew of 45:55 was retained.

As a result, UBS observes this was enough to engender a re-rating of the G.U.D. Holdings share price. With a bounce in the Australian dollar and consistent messaging from management the broker believes the risk for downgrades should ease.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $8.80 from $8.40.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.94 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.26, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates investment income forecasts for Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group ((SUN)), noting that while these businesses are experiencing higher growth in gross written premium, they continue to lag market averages in home, motor and packages.

The insurers have significantly reset perils/hazards allowance for FY23 and are likely to do so again in FY24. Suncorp is considered better placed to achieve margin guidance in FY23 versus IAG while the latter should take the lead subsequently.

Target is raised to $5.50 from $5.40. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: $0.67
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPH as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line on first glance. IPH provided no guidance. The focus is on initiatives to drive organic growth in Australasia while the business continues to assess the opportunities for M&A in Canada and other markets.

UBS notes results were compositionally stronger in Asia which offset the softer Australasian division. Buy rating and $11 target.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: $2.62
If IPH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.65, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank's first quarter update, at first glance, revealed stronger-than-expected delivery on costs amid revenue tailwinds from higher interest rates. No change to formal guidance was made.

The bank has indicated the higher interest rate environment has provided benefits to revenues and cash earnings but also weakened housing prices and economic growth. Moreover, the bank believes most customers will be well-placed given "strong employment conditions" and "healthy savings buffers".

In the context of recent sector price moves, UBS expects a positive market reaction to the update. Neutral rating and $33 target.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $30.31 Difference: $2.69
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.94, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

In an early response to NRW Holdings' first half result, UBS highlights revenue is up 15% year-on-year to $1.33bn and earnings 7% to $80m. While UBS found the result slightly soft, guidance was reiterated. 

The broker continues to see a favourable outlook for NRW Holdings given the expected level of resource investment. UBS expects a focus in the second half to be on cash generation improvement, but sees risk to earnings guidance as firmly skewed to the upside. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.10 are retained. 

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.14
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group's first half results were largely in-line with Citi's expectations, with earnings a -1% miss and net profits of $31m a -3% miss but attributed to lower than expected interest revenue. 

For Citi, negatives from the result included a -460 year-on-year margin basis point decline to 46%, a reflection of 30% cost growth, as well as a 49% increase in non-employee expenses, largely on an almost doubling of IT expenses. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $13.50 are retained. 

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.87, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

After a 1H result beat versus Credit Suisse and consensus forecasts of 7% and 1%, respectively, the broker downgrades its rating for Netwealth Group to Neutral from Outperform.

After the share price has rallied around 15% so far this year, the analyst feels strong growth is already incorporated into the current share price, while there are downside risks for costs and near-term flows are unlikely to exceed expectations.

The 1H beats were largely due to a higher figure for funds under administration (FUA), which is transitory and won't benefit future periods, points out the broker.

The target remains at $13.70.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: $0.06
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.87, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Outperform (1) -

Netwealth Group reported in line with Macquarie's expectations. An increased focus on operating leverage going forward was well received by the market, suggesting cost growth will normalise from the elevated levels seen in recent periods.

It’s been a long time coming, Macquarie notes, but it does appear earnings margins have bottomed.

On its current PE multiple, Netwealth is not cheap, the broker admits. But if management can deliver operating leverage in line with
expectations, the company can grow quickly into that multiple.

Target falls to $15.50 from $15.90 on higher costs. Outperform retained.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: $1.86
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.87, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

After in-line 1H results, Morgans observes Netwealth Group continues to execute flawlessly and still sees a long runway of opportunity. Operating leverage is expected to return with a flattening of cost growth from the 2H.

Revenue growth of 18% was driven by circa 14% funds under administration (FUA) growth and revenue margin expansion to 33.8bps from 32.5bps in the 2H of FY22.

Management reaffirmed flows guidance and expressed confidence in the pipeline of new adviser and institutional business.

Morgans increases its target to $15.30 from $14.50. Hold.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: $1.66
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.87, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Accumulate (2) -

Netwealth Group's December-half result met Ord Minnett's forecast, as improved platform margins offset growth in expenses and group revenue outpaced.

The broker expects cost growth to ease, paving the way for higher operating margins, and observes the flow pipeline remains intact. 

Ord Minnett forecasts an EPS compound annual growth rate of 23.3% over the next two years.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price rises to $14.20 from $13.50.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: $0.56
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.87, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Netwealth Group's first half earnings were below expectations. Still, UBS expects a quick recovery and continues to believe there is a multi-year opportunity to penetrate the adviser base.

Revenue growth of 19% was in line with expectations and a pickup is anticipated in the second half. The broker retains a Buy rating with a $17 target.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: $3.36
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.87, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, earnings for the first half were ahead of UBS estimates. The broker notes the North American business is holding up well, despite a broader de-stocking trend. North America delivered 10% growth in EBIT, reflecting an improved operating performance.

Orora has reiterated guidance for earnings growth in FY23 and, as a result, UBS envisages at least 2% upside to FY23 consensus estimates. Neutral rating and $3.25 target.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.35
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PGH as Outperform (1) -

Following 3% earnings (EBIT) growth in the 1H in the core Packaging division, Credit Suisse expects further momentum in the 2H with price increases taking full effect.

The broker continues to regard Pact Group as a high-returning turnaround story.

Management has flagged potential sales with certain divisions under review including Contract Manaufacturing as well as Crate Pooling and Retail Accessories Pooling.

The Outperform rating and $3.70 target are retained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $2.63
If PGH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 246% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 83.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

Pact Group reported profit ahead of Macquarie and just above the top end of guidance. No interim dividend was declared when the broker had assumed 1.5c, down from 3.5c a year ago.

No dividend reflects the need to preserve cash and allows Pact to reduce debt and continue its capital program.

While gearing is higher than normal, this reflects an accelerated capex program to fund platform upgrades that will bring forward revenue generation, Macquarie notes. Elevated receivables at the reporting date reflect strong sales in the last six weeks of the period.

The broker believes reducing gearing holds the key to a sustainable re-rating, and second half earnings delivery and progress on assets sales are pivotal in this regard. Neutral retained, target falls to $1.26 from $1.39 to reflect caution on gearing.

Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.19
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 83.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PME as Neutral (3) -

An in-line first half result from Pro Medicus according to Citi, with the company reporting a 32% year-on-year net profit increase to $27.2m and a 28% revenue increase to $56.9m. 

Citi anticipates a stronger second half, expecting the company will benefit from a full six month contribution from contracts implemented in the first half. Pro Medicus has, so far, announced new contracts in the current fiscal year to the value of $10m annually. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $55.00 are retained.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $65.47 Difference: minus $10.47 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $48.28, suggesting downside of -23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes no changes to its forecasts and finds it hard to uncover negatives from 1H results for Pro Medicus.

Revenues were in line though profit missed on higher than expected conference expenses and some new accounting treatments, explains the analyst.

Morgans finds the current valuation is full and suggests trimming overweight positions in the hope of a lower buying point. Hold.

The $61.35 target is unchanged.

Target price is $61.35 Current Price is $65.47 Difference: minus $4.12 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $48.28, suggesting downside of -23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PME as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett, whitelabelling Morningstar research, takes the view that Pro Medicus's product differentiation is unlikely to be durable, that the market is underestimating competitive challenges, and that the company is sharply overvalued.

Meanwhile, the broker cuts its price target 5% to $28.50 to reflect a deterioration in the USD against the AUD, and rising staff costs.

Pro Medicus' December-half revenue appeared to meet the broker's forecast and Ord Minnett pegs an annual-compound-growth-rate in US revenue of 21% over five years.

Sell rating retained.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $65.47 Difference: minus $36.97 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $48.28, suggesting downside of -23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Patriot Battery Metals reported a modest net profit of CA$0.8m, which compared to Macquarie's forecast loss of -CA$4m. The positive
earnings result reflected a combination of the accounting treatment of the flow-through scheme and lower share-based payment expenses.

The miner's net cash position of CA$19.3m is -8% lower than the broker had forecast due to timing of cash received from equity issued and option conversion.

The upcoming maiden resource for Corvette is a key catalyst. Outperform and $1.75 target retained.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.3
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans increases its FY23 net loss forecast for Pharmaxis after product revenue was impacted by zero sales into Russia and the US, though the broker's valuation is weighted to outer years. Thus the Speculative Buy rating and 24c target are unchanged.

Important for a re-rating of the stock, according to the analyst, will be positive data from two upcoming trials due for release prior to the end of the 4Q FY23.

These trials include interim data from the lead candidate for Myelofibrosis and top line results for the established scar trial.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.18
If PXS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 300% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RBL as Hold (3) -

Redbubble had pre-released key metrics prior to yesterday's 1H result.

Morgans suggests the results highlight the difficult operating environment faced by the marketplace, with margins hard to defend when competition is also increasing.

Guidance for FY23 marketplace revenue was lowered to "slightly below" FY22 from in line, due to a lower spend by US/UK consumers.

The target falls to 68c from 70c. Hold.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.19
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RBL as Neutral (3) -

First half results were largely pre-announced and the main news was Redbubble's revision to revenue guidance because of softer demand. UBS updates forecasts to reflect the updated FY23 guidance by reducing revenue estimates by -2% and -4% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

Margin assumptions are increased marginally because of a greater focus on profitable promotional and marketing expenditure. The broker assumes a return to double-digit revenue growth in 2024, which should achieve break even in terms of free cash flow.

Neutral rating and $0.55 target maintained.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.06
If RBL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIC as Buy (1) -

At first glance, first half results were strong and beat UBS estimates. The result was supported by execution on internal initiatives.

The broker points out commodity movements make revenue for Ridley Corp hard to predict, yet estimates second half EBITDA of $44.8m, driven by underlying business momentum, increased asset utilisation and the company's growth plan. Buy rating and $2.35 target.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.39
If RIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SKC as Outperform (1) -

In the wake of 1H results and upgraded FY23 guidance , Credit Suisse raises its target for SkyCity Entertainment to $2.90 from $2.80 and retains its Outperform rating.

The broker notes resilient slot revenue across New Zealand operations with trends continuing into January. Costs are expected to remain elevated as visitation recovers, which may pressure the earnings margin as the reliance shifts away from higher spend per player.

An increased tax risk results in a slight downward adjustment to the analyst's earnings forecast for the Adelaide casino.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.55
If SKC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKC as Outperform (1) -

SkyCity Entertainment's first half earnings were materially ahead of last year's covid-impacted period, and in line with Macquarie's expectations.

The broker sees see SkyCity as more protected than listed peers from regulatory reform and tax changes with more than 85% of earnings coming from New Zealand.

Trading at a -30% discount to its long-run earnings multiple on an FY24 basis, and offering a 6% yield, SkyCity's valuation remains attractive in Macquarie's view.

Outperform retained, target unchanged at NZ$3.10.

Current Price is $2.35. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett is not genuinely in the business of comparing financial results with forecasts, but SkyCity Entertainment's H1 numbers have triggered minor upgrades to estimates.

The broker, whitelabeling Morningstar research, observes profitability at the casino operator is now back at pre-corona levels. There are cost pressures, however, not in the least because of money laundering investigations from authorities.

Ord Minnett suggests SkyCity has a protective regulatory moat in Auckland which means it should benefit from the recovery in NZ tourism.

A strong balance sheet further underpins the Hold rating. Fair value estimate is NZ$3.80 ($3.50).

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $1.15
If SKC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie updates investment income forecasts for Suncorp Group and Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), noting that while these businesses are experiencing higher growth in gross written premium they continues to lag market averages in home, motor and packages.

The insurers have significantly reset perils/hazards allowance for FY23 and are likely to do so again in FY24. Suncorp is considered better placed to achieve margin guidance in FY23 versus IAG while the latter should take the lead subsequently.

Target is reduced to $16.30 from $16.40. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $12.60 Difference: $3.7
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SVW as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse assesses strong operating momentum across the main earnings divisions of Westrac, Coates and Boral ((BLD)) following 1H results by Seven Group. Earnings (EBIT) were in line with the broker's forecast and slightly in advance of consensus.

The broker raises its FY23-25 EPS forecasts by 2.3%-8% and the target jumps to $26.10 from $22.25. Outperform.

Despite the ongoing strong performance from Westrac and Coates, the analyst points out 65% of the potential upside to the broker's valuation is provided by Boral.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $2.5
If SVW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.10, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVW as Outperform (1) -

Seven Group's earnings grew 16% year on year and beat Macquarie by 3%. WesTrac beat the broker by 10% and Coates by 16%. FY23 guidance upgraded to “low to mid-teen percentage earnings growth” from “high single to low double digit”.

WesTrac and Coates guidance appears conservative, the broker suggests.  Strong operational momentum, positive outlook commentary, and industry tailwinds set up both businesses for strong growth through FY23 and into FY24.

Target rises to $26.70 from $25.85, Outperform retained.

Target price is $26.70 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $3.1
If SVW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.10, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SVW as Hold (3) -

Seven Group's December-half result outpaced Ord Minnett's forecasts, net profit after tax falling less than expected due to a beat on net interest, save for the dividend, which fell a touch shy.

EPS forecasts rise 13% for FY23, after the company raised guidance, expecting earnings growth for Westrac and Coates and a steady performance from Boral ((BLD)).

Looking forward, the broker suspects margins should recover in line with supply chains and improved cost cutting but observes the balance sheet is toppy, with gearing sitting at 101%.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises to $24.60 from $23.40.

Note: Ord Minnett has transitioned to Morningstar research. New figures compare with the last entries in the FNArena database in November of a Buy rating and a $22 target price.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $1
If SVW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.10, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

First half earnings grew 16% and beat UBS estimates. The result was driven by growth in premium assets - WesTrac and Coates. Construction activity, price action and operating leverage all supported the improved results and resulted in a record margin of 26%.

UBS envisages further deleveraging potential should Seven Group divest its 15% stake in the Crux gas field. EBIT guidance has been raised and growth is now expected to be in the low to mid-teens.

UBS also notes a reduction in leverage and more consistent operating outcomes at Boral and Beach Energy ((BPT)) remain key factors for the overall investment case. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $27.00 from $25.40.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $3.4
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.10, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SWM as Underweight (5) -

On closer examination of Seven West Media's December half in-line result, which prophesied June-half softness in the TV ad market, Morgan Stanley concludes restructuring, cost cutting and broadcaster-video-on-demand market growth will be insufficient to stave off weakness.

As a result, the broker suggests consensus estimates are currently too high and cuts EPS forecasts -7% to -13% across FY23 to FY25.

No explicit earnings guidance was supplied by management, though January and February ads are displaying a weaker trend than in the 1H. A new cost-out program of -$15-20m was announced.

Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating. Target price falls to 40c from 45c. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 46.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SXL as Buy (1) -

On an initial view, Southern Cross Media's first half result missed UBS estimates. The result reflected a deterioration in trading conditions for the last two months of the year.

The miss and guidance infers a likely downgrade to the broker's FY23 EBITDA estimates to around $80-85m, if third quarter trends continue into the fourth.

Buy rating and $1.70 target.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.58
If SXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, UBS believes Telstra Group released a "solid" and "slightly better" interim set of financial results, with an in-line dividend of 8.2c.

The highlight, according to the broker, were better-than-anticipated ARPU numbers for prepaid mobiles.

Neutral. Target $4.15.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.01
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Weak volumes in Treasury Wine Estates' premium (19 Crimes) and commercial portfolio resulted in a slight 1H earnings (EBIT) miss against Credit Suisse's forecast.

Offsetting these negative factors for earnings, the broker upgrades its outlook for earnings from China, as trade may soon resume.

While 1H cash flow was below the analyst's forecast, an improvement in the 2H is expected.

Management is targeting high-single-digit earnings growth over the medium term which compares with the 7% forecast by Credit Suisse.

The Neutral rating and $13.80 target are unchanged.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $0.46
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.16, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates missed Macquarie's forecast on softer volumes. Volumes fell -15.4% year on year for Treasury America and -10.5% Treasury Premium Brands.

TA saw lower demand in US$8-15 wines, while in TPB, softness in the UK across its commercial and entry-level premium price points have been a factor, the broker notes. Trading conditions are set to remain broadly consistent over FY23.

Macquarie has reduced earnings forecasts and cut its target to $14.90 from $15.50. But management has excelled at reinvesting in
the Penfolds brand and growing its presence both domestically and in newer Asian markets, the broker notes.

Macquarie sees medium-term upside to exports and believes there is significant opportunity to further leverage the Frank Family Vineyards assets in the US. Outperform retained.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $1.56
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.16, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

On closer examination, Treasury Wine Estates' December-half result missed consensus by -1.8% at the earnings (EBIT) level. After removing a one-off gain from an asset sale, the result proved a -3.6% miss due to weaker sales, observes Morgan Stanley.

Earnings (EBIT) margins outpaced slightly, thanks in part to a continued strong performance in the luxury wine portfolio. Penfolds posted solid growth. Margin guidance also slightly outpaced, says the broker, and management guided to more of the same on the broader trading front in the June half.

The broker says December-quarter softness in US premium price points and the global commercial business was concerning, but on the upside, notes cost-of-good-sold benefits from the company's supply chain program should continue to flow.

EPS forecasts are reduced to reflect the deterioration in market trends. Overweight rating retained. Target price falls to $15.40 from $15.70. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $2.06
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.16, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Add (1) -

Morgans anticipates minor downgrades to consensus forecasts following a slight miss in 1H results, as well as implied guidance that suggests 2H earnings (EBITS) will be similar to the 1H.

Demand for Luxury wine remains strong across all key markets for Treasury Wine Estates, observes the broker.

While providing no formal guidance, management stated the business remains on-track to deliver strong growth and margin expansion in FY23.

Morgans retains its Add rating. The target falls to $15.05 from $15.71.

Target price is $15.05 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $1.71
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.16, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Lighten (4) -

Treasury Wine Estates' December-half result failed to impress Ord Minnett, due to softer than expected earnings from Penfolds and Treasuries America and the broker doubts a June-half recovery will materialise given the December half is seasonally stronger.

Given most of the company's sales are sourced from overseas, the broker expects franking credits to be used up faster than they are replaced in years to come.

Ord Minnett lowers its FY23 earnings (EBIT) forecast -4%. Lighten rating and $11.50 target price retained.

Note: Ord Minnett has transitioned to whitelabelling Morningstar research. Prior to this, the last entry in the FNArena database in August was a Hold rating and $13 target price. EPS and DPS forecasts are similarly affected.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.16, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates has reiterated expectations for high single-digit earnings growth over the long-term. First half results were mixed with EBITS ahead of UBS estimates and revenue below.

The broker notes 19 Crimes has been a prime source of growth in the last five years while the heritage Australian portfolio has been complemented by partnerships with Snoop Dogg and Martha Stewart.

Yet the broker believes the company has not executed well in the US with its Australian portfolio, failing to drive sufficient innovation, and this has amplified the negative impact of the recent slowdown in commercial and lower-end premium wines across the industry

UBS retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $15.00 from $14.75.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.34 Difference: $1.66
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.16, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates URW as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reports a correction to its Unibail-Rodamco dividend numbers published on February 13. Notably dividends were reinstated in 2024, not 2025.

Otherwise the results commentary was broadly the same as follows: Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield's 2022 full-year result outperformed Ord Minnett's forecasts, the REIT outpacing guidance. Management guided to further earnings growth in 2023.

The broker expects lower sales proceeds going forward and observes rising bond yields have translated into a -2.6% easing in the company's shopping-centre assets' book value. But the broker says all this is offset by the faster than expected recovery.

Ord Minnett notes European rents are indexed to inflation with a one-year lag and this should flow through into the 2023 result.

The broker is less impressed with the balance sheet but notes a sharp improvement, returning debt-to-earnings to pre-pandemic levels, and expects debt to continue to fall out to 2027, when the company's interest rate hedges expire.

Accumulate rating retained.Target price rises 2% to $7.35.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: $2.73
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

According to Citi, Vicinity Centres beat expectations with its first half leasing performance, underpinned by strong leasing spreads and higher underlying occupancies. 

The broker highlights ongoing risks to Australian consumption as higher interest rates increasingly put pressure on spending. 

Citi expects ongoing improvement to CBD retail as workers return to the office, and increases its funds from operations forecasts 6.3%, 3.3% and 0.6% through to FY25. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.00 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Following a better-than-expected 1H result, Credit Suisse expects a further recovery in operating earnings under the assumption
of no further rent relief from FY24 onwards.

Funds from operations (FFO) for Vicinity Centres in the 1H of 7.84cpu were well above the 6.3cpu and 6.8cpu forecast by the broker and consensus, respectively. The analyst hadn't anticipated the boost provided by a $25m reversal of prior year rent relief provisions.

The target rises to $2.11 from $2.07. Neutral.

Target price is $2.11 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.06
If VCX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres' first half funds from operations came in 15% ahead of Macquarie, driven by a provision write-back. FY23 guidance is upgraded by 8%, reflecting that write-back but also underlying strength.

Strategically, the new CEO focussed on developments and asset optimisation. Capital partnering at key mixed-use developments is a key strategical catalyst.

But for the broker, it's all about headwinds for the consumer. Despite the positives, Neutral retained. Target rises to $2.30 from $1.99.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.25
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Equal-weight (3) -

Vicinity Centres' December-half result sharply outpaced consensus' and Morgan Stanley's forecasts and management raises funds-from-operations (FFO) guidance by 17.5%.

The result included a $25m provision write-back, but even after excluding this, the broker observes that the result was still very strong, thanks to strong luxury retail percentage writeback. But the broker warns the June half will not benefit from the writeback.

Net tangible assets and cap rates showed only minimal movement, save for the Chadstone cap rate, which fell -13bps.

The broker admires the result and company's rent-vs-sales mix but retains an Equal-weight rating citing caution towards the company's $3bn development pipeline, spying little room for further writebacks.

Target price is steady at $2.26. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.26 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.21
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VCX as Sell (5) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Operating metrics were robust but UBS believes this is priced into the stock and the focus is on the outlook for the second half and FY24.

The broker assesses potential upside risk to FY23 guidance but notes crystallisation of a material development profit is not priced in.

Guidance for the second half suggests a decline in free funds of -$25-50m which reflectts a loss of rent from the Chatswood fresh food development, increased interest expense and lower ancillary income.

The broker points out this all underlines the expected weakening of economic conditions. Vicinity Centres, after all, was a beneficiary of elevated retail sales in 2022. Sell maintained. Target is raised to $1.91 from $1.89.

Target price is $1.91 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEA as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

While remaining positive on the company, Ord Minnett downgrades Viva Energy's rating to Hold from Accumulate on grounds of valuation given recent share price strength.

Target price is steady at $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.22
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of the FY22 result, Woodside Energy lifts depreciation significantly because of another change in its methodology.

With the dividend policy reflecting a pay-out of 50-80% of underlying net profit, the higher depreciation reduces UBS estimates for the dividend by -5-6% in 2023-24. Gearing is still expected to remain below the 10-20% target.

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $36.50 from $34.00.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $35.35 Difference: $1.15
If WDS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.38, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Despite ongoing margin compression for its Bunnings brand, Wesfarmers delivered a 2.5% beat to Citi's expectations with earnings of $2,160m.

The broker highlights this was the third consecutive material margin decline from Bunnings, and fails to see why the retailer isn't fully passing on supplier cost increases given its position as the market leader. 

More positively, Kmart appears to have successfully managed down its excess inventory position and grow earnings above the broker's expectations. Citi expects Kmart's value offering will remain attractive to customers as the consumer environment gets tougher. 

The Sell rating and target price of $43.00 are retained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $49.35 Difference: minus $6.35 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.20, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WES as Neutral (3) -

According to Credit Suisse, the investment story for Wesfarmers doesn't change following 1H results. The company remains an overvalued, slightly defensive exposure to discretionary retail with a long-dated option on the lithium price. Neutral.

The analyst considers the company showed resilience in the 1H, with outperformance largely attributed to Kmart and WesCEF (chemicals, energy & fertilsers). Catch materially underperformed on excess stock and less customer traffic, explains the analyst.

The Neutral rating remains, while the target falls to $48.50 from $48.80.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $49.35 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.20, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23: