Australian Broker Call
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February 21, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
A2M - | a2 Milk Co | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
ACL - | Australian Clinical Labs | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse | ||
ALD - | Ampol | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
AMP - | AMP | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
BSL - | BlueScope Steel | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Credit Suisse |
CHC - | Charter Hall | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
GMG - | Goodman Group | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
MIN - | Mineral Resources | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
NHF - | nib Holdings | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett | ||
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS | ||
QBE - | QBE Insurance | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
SUL - | Super Retail | Downgrade to Sell from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
Overnight Price: $6.49
Citi rates A2M as Sell (5) -
Citi expects upside risk to medium-term earnings margins, likely to be in the teens, has somewhat dissipated for a2 Milk Co since October, with the company failing to reiterate commentary that upside could drive margins into the low-to-mid 20s.
The broker expects this is a result of English label underperformance, and notes it could suggest downside risk to consensus expectations of a 20% margin by FY26. Citi does credit the company for its first half result in China, but expects this could prove hard to replicate as a birth rate decline cycles through.
The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.75 from $4.51.
Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $1.74 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.33 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.44 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates A2M as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
a2 Milk made strong gains in Chinese infant formula market share in the first half on excellent marketing and execution, Credit Suisse declares. Brand awareness continues to improve in China.
Upside risk is nonetheless difficult because the Chinese infant formula demand rate of decline appears to have quickened. The broker's modelling now suggests a further -10% decline in demand in 2023.
Credit Suisse is concerned the China re-registration process could cause market disorder. Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral on valuation. Target falls to $5.10 from $5.30.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates A2M as Underperform (5) -
First half results beat Macquarie's estimates while the outlook for FY23 is largely unchanged. A2 Milk Co has made gains in market share and revenue growth is not driven by volume, Macquarie observes.
Recent drivers of a re-rating include a reopening of China and the US infant formula expansion, yet both of these are immaterial to earnings over the short term, the broker adds.
Macquarie raises the target to $5.00 from $4.25 on the earnings roll and maintains an Underperform rating.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $1.49 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 23.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates A2M as Hold (3) -
Morgans assesses a solid outcome after the release of 1H results by the a2 Milk Co, which showed strong growth (led by China label infant formula) and ongoing market share gains. Earnings were a beat though cashflow was materially weaker than expected.
FY23 guidance was largely unchanged though the broker feels management was cautious on the China infant formula industry for 2023.
Morgans makes only minor changes to its forecasts. The target rises to $6.45 from $6.35. Hold.
The analyst can see the company's FY26 revenue targets being met, though higher-end margin targets appear lofty given a weaker performance by the English label infant formula in the 1H.
Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ACL AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $3.33
Citi rates ACL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Having last week reassured investors that margins would be in line with pre-covid levels, in its first half result Australian Clinical Labs has suggested business as usual margins look to be at or above 11% in the second half and beyond, in what Citi found to be a highlight of the result.
The update has given Citi more confidence in Australian Clinical Labs' ability to reach targeted low teens earnings margins moving forward.
The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $4.10 from $3.30.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.77
If ACL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ACL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Australian Clinical Labs' underlying earnings, excluding one-offs, came in slightly below Credit Suisse' forecast. Margins were nevertheless maintained on solid cost control despite an -83% decline in covid-releated revenue.
Australian Clinical Labs has outperformed Healius ((HLS)) on all metrics, the broker notes, achieving a stronger earnings performance
due to its Unified Laboratory Network, where uniform equipment and systems across all high-volume central laboratories has enabled greater agility in managing its labour cost base over varying demand.
Seeing no immediate change in this trend, Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.45.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.47
If ACL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.41
Morgans rates ADH as Hold (3) -
First half revenue for Adairs came in 5% ahead of Morgans forecast on better than expected sales at both Adairs and Focus. Earnings (EBIT) were an -11% miss on a one-off (-$5m) logistical cost and an underperforming online business.
Had the logistical cost not occurred at the new national distribution centre, 1H earnings would have been a 2% beat, points out the analyst.
Management reduced earnings guidance to $70-80m from $75-85m.
After allowing for the 1H result and ongoing supply chain issues in the 2H, the broker lowers its target to $2.60 from $2.70. Hold.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.19
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 31.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ADH as Hold (3) -
First half results were mixed with net profit and EBIT slightly below Ord Minnett's forecast. Adairs has downgraded FY23 EBIT guidance to $70-80m because of elevated supply chain costs.
As a result cost reductions have been initiated in order to underpin profitability amid prospects of a weaker consumer environment.
The stock continues to trade on undemanding multiples and Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating. The main risk, the broker suggests, is if trading conditions continue to deteriorate. Target is $2.40.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 34.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ADH as Buy (1) -
First half results missed expectations and FY23 EBIT guidance has been revised down. A cost reduction program has been initiated.
For the Adairs brand UBS forecasts 10% EBIT margins over FY23-24 and 11% in FY25, below pre-pandemic levels.
UBS notes brand image continues to affect Mocka following problems with delivery and products in the second half of FY22. Customers returning to stores has also affected online demand.
The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $2.95 from $3.25.
Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.54
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $32.31
Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -
2022 results were broadly in line with expectations. Macquarie notes de-leveraging after the Z acquisition has allowed for a generous 70% payout plus a special dividend.
The broker also points out, previously, when corporate returns were at the current level the share price was $35-38 and the business is now larger and far more advanced in convenience retail.
After a record earnings year Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $39.50 target.
Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $7.19
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 226.00 cents and EPS of 320.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 295.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 281.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.6, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley is anticipating a positive market reaction to FY22 results released by Ampol following a 2% earnings beat.
Also, January's Lytton refinery margin was US$18.40/bbl compared to the broker's 2023 forecast for US$12/bbl and fuel volumes for the month rose 5.6% on a like-for-like basis.
A fully franked final dividend of 105cps and a special dividend of 50cps were declared.
Management expects capex will be "at a similar level to 2022".
Target 30.14. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.
Target price is $30.14 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: minus $2.17 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 216.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 295.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 202.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.6, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ALD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Ord Minnett finds no longer-term implications from a very strong 2022 cash result, which was well ahead of expectations. The main surprise was Ampol rewarding shareholders with a special dividend of $0.50 on top of the underlying full year dividend of $1.75.
The results reflected the Z Energy acquisition although the main feature in profit growth was extraordinarily strong refiner margins. The rating is reduced to Hold from Buy and the target remains at $34.50, with the shares now considered only marginally undervalued.
Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $2.19
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 213.20 cents and EPS of 355.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 295.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 225.90 cents and EPS of 376.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.6, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -
Ampol's earnings (EBIT) were in line with forecasts by UBS for FY22, while underlying profit was a slight miss.
A 50cps special dividend was a key highlight for the analyst, a distribution of the Z Energy property sale. The dividend payout ratio of 70% of underlying profit is expected to be maintained, despite an expected normalisation of refining margins.
Should refining margins remain higher for longer, the broker can see upside to its current forecast for an around 6% dividend yield.
UBS raises its 2023 EPS forecast by 2% to reflect a stronger retail fuel margin outlook in A&NZ in the first half of 2023, as well as continued growth in shop margins over the near-term.
The target rises to $37.00 from $36.90. Buy.
Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $4.69
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 204.00 cents and EPS of 291.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 295.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 192.00 cents and EPS of 274.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.6, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $40.00
Citi rates ALU as Neutral (3) -
Stronger than expected earnings margins more than offset weaker revenue for Altium and saw the company deliver a 2% beat to Citi's earnings and underlying net profits forecasts. The former grew 24% year-on-year to US$43m, and the latter 30%.
Standouts for Citi were strong growth in both professional and enterprise revenue, which supported an 11% increase in average revenue per subscriber to US$2,304. The company reiterated full year guidance, and guided to an increase in subscriptions growth over the second half.
The Neutral rating and target price of $37.60 are retained.
Target price is $37.60 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: minus $2.4 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $39.76, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 56.20 cents and EPS of 74.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.38 cents and EPS of 95.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 27.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ALU as Neutral (3) -
Altium's first half subscriber growth was weaker than Macquarie estimated amid headwinds from the macro environment and the exit from the Russian business. Nevertheless, subscriber growth could be boosted with China reopening into the second half.
There are also potential subscription upgrades which, combined with lower costs, should drive stronger margin expansion longer term.
Macquarie transfers coverage to another analyst and retains a Neutral rating, raising the target to $40.00 from $31.40.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $0
If ALU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.76, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 83.79 cents and EPS of 75.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 109.80 cents and EPS of 99.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 27.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley assesses underlying 1H growth was a beat versus the consensus forecast, once unfavorable currency movements are overlooked. Altium reported 17.5% revenue growth versus a constant currency rise of 22%.
Management reiterated all full year revenue and earnings (EBITDA) targets including 17.5% revenue growth, which the analyst points out is ahead of the 10% average for global peers. Market share gains are expected.
The broker's target rises to $43.50 from $38.00. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $43.50 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $3.5
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.76, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 75.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 87.55 cents and EPS of 97.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 27.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.10
Ord Minnett rates AMP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
As the share price has moved through the trigger point, Ord Minnett upgrades AMP to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $1.35.
Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.25
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.22, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of 26.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $68.48
Ord Minnett rates ASX as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett maintains its estimates following the first half results, observing rising interest rates and volatile stock markets throughout 2022 created a challenging environment for new listings.
Rising expenses are also a concern, particularly in combination with flat operating revenue. Rising interest rates may offer some relief because of higher net interest income.
ASX has highlighted a key strategic focus on retaining its licenses and the broker believes the CHESS replacement partnership program is evidence the strategy is being pursued. Hold rating and $66 target.
Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $68.48 Difference: minus $2.48 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 254.20 cents and EPS of 281.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 253.0, implying annual growth of -3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 242.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 266.10 cents and EPS of 294.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 280.1, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 253.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $25.83
UBS rates AUB as Buy (1) -
UBS notes AUB Group has lifted the mid point of FY23 guidance ahead of its results on February 22. As a result, forecasts are upgraded and the target raised to $29 from $27. Buy maintained.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $25.83 Difference: $3.17
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 116.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.7, implying annual growth of 9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 129.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.7, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.44
Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -
Aurizon Holdings has announced an 11-year contract with Team Global Express for rail linehaul services connecting Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.
This is Aurizon's largest non-coal contract, Credit Suisse notes, driving some 10% revenue growth for the Bulk segment.
The broker believes this business is a better fit for Aurizon than the Intermodal business it exited in FY19, which was sub-scale, less than container load and required an integrated logistics service.
Outperform retained, target rises to $4.10 from $4.00.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.66
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 23.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AZJ as Resume Coverage with Outperform (1) -
Aurizon Holdings has signed a foundation contract with TGE, returning to the east-west and north-sales corridor, with the contract fully ramped up by April 2024. Macquarie estimates the contract has a return on invested capital of 7-8%.
The broker points out the market's disappointment after the first half result is now explained, as the company did not restore the 100% net profit payout.
Amid hints of further investment the broker suspects restoration of the payout could be FY25 at the earliest and this is a negative. Yet, the share price has been oversold and, given a solid yield, Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating. Target is $3.71.
Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.27
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.80 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 23.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley considers Aurizon Holdings' new contract with Team Global Express, worth around $1.8bn over 11 years, is a medium-term positive that lends conviction to earnings estimates for Above Rail Bulk.
Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating and $3.66 target. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.22
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 23.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AZJ as Add (1) -
Morgans raises its target by 2% to $3.81, following the announcement by Aurizon Holdings of a contract win (Australia-wide) with freight forwarder Team Global Express.
Management describes the arrangement for interstate delivery of rail line haul services for containers as the company's biggest ever non-coal revenue contract.
The Add rating is maintained.
Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.37
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -20.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 23.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.79
Citi rates BEN as Neutral (3) -
A solid beat from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank in its first half according to Citi, with net interest income driving a beat to the broker's earnings assumption.
Given expansion on the December exit net interest margin, the broker is anticipating margins won't peak until the second half, which could support consensus upgrades.
The bank reported cash earnings of $295m, a 7% beat to the broker, which lifts its earnings expectations as a result.
The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $10.40 from $10.00.
Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.61
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 94.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 93.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BEN as Outperform (1) -
A 13% year on year earnings increase for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank beat Credit Suisse by 3%. It was a solid result, the broker suggests, that has highlighted slightly better net interest margin upside than previously expected.
But Bendelaide is exposed to industry pressures, particularly around consumer margins, which are likely to see this benefit eroded over time, Credit Suisse warns.
The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $11.10 target as Bendelaide is its preferred regional bank exposure, but acknowledges increasing pressures within consumer banking.
Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $1.31
If BEN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BEN as Neutral (3) -
First half results were ahead of expectations. Margin trends were better than expected as Bendigo & Adelaide Bank benefited from higher rates and a material contribution from its new deposit hedge.
On further analysis, Macquarie continues to envisage upside to margins in the second half and anticipates consensus expectations will also be upgraded over FY23.
From there, earnings are expected to decline in FY24 amid margin erosion, as deposit competition and mix shift are fully incorporated in the funding base.
Neutral rating retained. Target is $10.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.21
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 94.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 81.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Overweight (1) -
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 1H result revealed key metrics broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. Cash profit was an around -1.5% miss though pre-provision profit was a beat by the same percentage.
The December exit margin of 2.03% was ahead of the 2.01% in November. Management is aiming for loan growth "at or better than system" in the 2H and FY23 expenses to only increase modestly on FY22.
The broker feels the bank has significantly improved its management of margins, costs and capital. Overweight. The target rises to $10.50 from $10.10. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.71
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's first half result was "solid", in Ord Minnett's view. The increase in cash profit on the prior half, up 23%, emphasises the extent of the earnings rebound as the bank gets a benefit of a higher cash rate environment.
On the other hand, soft home and business lending, the broker asserts, highlights its lack of competitive advantage. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $10.20 target.
Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.41
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 101.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's first half results were in line with expectations and UBS liked the capital position and potential for earnings momentum into the second half.
Still, weaker volume growth and a normalising credit charge could mean the earnings profile is flat to declining over the forecast period.
Net interest margins are upgraded by 11 basis points over FY23-25 but volume forecasts are downgraded. Neutral rating and $10 target maintained.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.21
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $48.46
Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -
Prior to BHP Group's 1H results release today, Morgans had penciled in underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$13,775m, a fall of -30% on the 1H of FY22.
The broker also expects a -46% decline in underlying profit to US$7,242m and an interim dividend of US86cps.
The Hold rating and $47 target are unchanged.
Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $48.46 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.01, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 280.27 cents and EPS of 488.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 428.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 290.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 325.05 cents and EPS of 547.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 442.4, implying annual growth of 3.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 300.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.84
Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -
BlueScope Steel has reported an -18% decline on high margin domestic dispatches, while low to no margin export dispatches tripled to 516,000 tonnes. Despite this, Citi highlights first half earnings of $851m were in line, as was an interim dividend of 25 cents per share.
With second half guidance based on iron ore and coking coal prices, which are now below spot, Citi sees some risk to second half guidance.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $20.50 from $19.50.
Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $2.66
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 196.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.3, implying annual growth of -64.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of -23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BSL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
BlueScope Steel's first half result was in line with guidance but second half guidance is below expectation.
In 2021, Credit Suisse concluded there was no evidence Australian Steel Products was outperforming spreads over five years, while NorthStar had underperformed.
Strong realised pricing and market share growth in Colorbond and other products in the interim led the broker to a rethink.
But on the first half result and second half guidance, Credit Suisse now suggests this may have been cyclical, not structural.
Target falls to $14.40 from $19.90, downgrade to Underperform from Neutral.
Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: minus $3.44 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.3, implying annual growth of -64.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of -23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BSL as Neutral (3) -
First half results were ahead of expectations. Macquarie anticipates a softening housing outlook in Australia may weigh on high-value volume. Moreover, concerns exist regarding the case for a US recession which could test the industry discipline and economics.
BlueScope Steel is trading at a meaningful discount to the 10-year average so the broker assesses support is "reasonably good". Still, Macquarie argues against a more optimistic view and retains a Neutral rating. Target edges back to $18.00 from $18.10.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $0.16
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 203.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.3, implying annual growth of -64.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 153.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of -23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Overweight (1) -
While BlueScope Steel produced a solid, in line with consensus 1H result, according to Morgan Stanley, management issued FY23 guidance -17% short of expectations.
Management expects a lower result in the 2H compared to the 1H due to softer Asian and Midwest steel spreads.
Guidance reflects a normalisation of recent trends which have seen the company over-earning in Australia, suggests the analyst. This past outcome was due to supply chain challenges and costs on competing imports and increased coke earnings.
The 25cps fully franked interim dividend was in line with the broker's forecast and the current buyback was extended to (up to) $380m.
Morgan Stanley views BlueScope Steel as a high-quality cyclical exposure and maintains its Overweight rating and $24 target. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $6.16
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 219.30 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.3, implying annual growth of -64.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 199.30 cents and EPS of 199.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of -23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BSL as Lighten (4) -
Ord Minnett lowers its estimates for FY23 by -18%, adjusting for management's guidance for second half earnings.
The broker asserts shares in BlueScope Steel are expensive, suspecting the market is yet to fully price in the reversal of US steel spreads and expectations of lower east Asian hot rolled coil spreads.
Moreover, the market is yet to incorporate the meaningful slowdown that is likely in construction activity across the US and Australia, amid higher interest rates.
On the other hand, the return of franking to the interim dividend reflects a return to profitability in the Australian business and the exhaustion of tax losses. Lighten rating and $13 target maintained.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: minus $4.84 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 187.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.3, implying annual growth of -64.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 134.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of -23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -
Earnings (EBIT) guidance for the 2H was weaker than UBS expected, putting a dampener on the in-line 1H result for BlueScope Steel.
While a reduction in guidance for North Star earnings by around -$100m was a surprise, the analyst feels unfavourable realised pricing may normalise in FY24.
Despite macroeconomic risks, the broker remains upbeat (with a Buy rating) on the company with Australian Steel Products (ASP) continuing to take market share. The US business is also considered well placed with spot spreads also running above US$400/t.
The target falls to $21.80 from $22.
Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $3.96
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 211.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.3, implying annual growth of -64.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 160.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of -23.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.70
UBS rates CGC as Neutral (3) -
In an initial response to Costa Group's FY22 report, UBS observes it has been a challenging year for the company, but now it's all about market's confidence in whether management can deliver in FY23.
EBITDA-S marked a miss to consensus and UBS's forecast. NPAT-S proved a larger 'miss'. The 5c final dividend was in line.
The balance sheet has become more levered following a challenging 2022, hence deleveraging it in 2023 will be key, the broker suggests.
Neutral. Target $2.75.
Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.05
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of -12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 101.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.63
Credit Suisse rates CHC as Outperform (1) -
A -10% decline in Charter Hall Group's year on year earnings was not as bad as Credit Suisse had forecast, but FY guidance was left unchanged.
The broker does not expect Charter Hall to retain net acquisition run-rates of recent periods given the uncertainty of where asset valuations will stabilise and higher debt costs, with the use of leverage to generate returns increasingly difficult.
But while some investors may have been disappointed by the lack of a guidance upgrade, post the subsequent share price pull-back, Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating. Target price up to $15.45 from $15.44.
Target price is $15.45 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $1.82
If CHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of -51.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -
First half results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. Having expected Charter Hall would increase guidance at the results this was merely reaffirmed, so the broker continues to assesses there is a risk of an upgrade.
In explanation, Macquarie calculates hitting guidance implies a fall in operating earnings of -22% in the second half and, while there are headwinds, to this extent is considered unlikely.
Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $14.75 from $14.81.
Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $1.12
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of -51.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 77.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Equal-weight (3) -
First half EPS of 50.7cpu for Charter Hall was a beat against the forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus of 46.4cpu and 47.6cpu, respectively.
Property assets under management (AUM) have increased by 11% since last June to $73m. The cap rate across the platform
rose by 10bps.
While the consensus forecast for FY23 already sits at 93.9cpu, management reiterated guidance for "no less than" 90cpu. This guidance implies to the analyst a 2H decline of -20% on the 1H, though this may be due to a performance and transaction fee skew.
Morgan Stanley retains its $14.40 target price and Equal-weight rating. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $0.77
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 92.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of -51.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.10 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CHC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
As the share price has moved through the trigger point, Ord Minnett upgrades Charter Hall to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $15.85.
Target price is $15.85 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $2.22
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 100.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of -51.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.20 cents and EPS of 100.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CHC as Buy (1) -
UBS assesses a solid 1H result for Charter Hall, with in-line operating earnings against the broker's forecast, but a 7% beat versus consensus.
A 32% rise in Investment Management earnings were countered by lower performance/transaction fees and property investment income.
Management reaffirmed FY23 guidance, which disappointed market expectations for an upgrade, and suggests to the broker a challenging outlook.
The target is reduced to $14 from $14.20. Buy.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $0.37
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of -51.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.48
Macquarie rates CNU as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie assesses the first half result for Chorus was "solid". The lifted forecast EBITDA for FY23 to NZ$675-690m reflects favourable trends, amid increasing fibre uptake and higher ARPU.
The main risk, in Macquarie's view, lies with the "as yet" unqualified impact of recent weather events and the rate of uptake in fibre connections.
Neutral. Target is raised to NZ$8.63 from NZ$7.82.
Current Price is $7.48. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.75 cents and EPS of 3.28 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.31 cents and EPS of 4.47 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CNU as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett upgrades forecasts for earnings after the better-than-expected increase in first half underlying EBITDA and the increase in full year guidance.
The broker understands the appeal of Chorus as a defensive stock, particularly in the current economic environment, but assesses there is little margin of safety in the share price at current levels.
Furthermore, Ord Minnett suspects, in order to justify the current multiple, investor interest has already shifted to the potential for future growth. Yet the broker is content for the business to "stick to its knitting" and retains a Hold rating. Target is $6.90.
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.48 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If CNU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.60 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.20 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
COL COLES GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $18.30
Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -
At first glance, Coles Group's December half earnings (EBIT) sharply outpaced consensus' and Citi's forecasts thanks to a 5% beat from supermarkets.
Liquor disappointed consensus and the dividend outpaced the broker's forecasts.
Morgan Stanley spies potential consensus upgrades given the strong outlook for the industry.
Buy rating and $18.90 target price steady for now.
Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $18.30 Difference: $0.6
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.42, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 71.50 cents and EPS of 84.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.4, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 76.50 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -
Upon initial assessment, Coles Group's interim performance was better-than-expected, predominantly because of the supermarkets. UBS finds the announcement of a new CEO a surprise in its timing.
Liquor operations disappointed, but supermarkets and EBIT margin more than compensated, on the broker's assessment.
Neutral. Target $18.25.
Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $18.30 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.42, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.4, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Real Estate
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Overnight Price: $3.00
Morgan Stanley rates DHG as Overweight (1) -
After New Listings declined by -9.5% in the 1H for Domain Holdings Australia, earnings (EBITDA) and profit fell by -20% and -40%, respectively, compared to the previous corresponding period, explains Morgan Stanley.
The analyst points out that while recent results for REA Group ((REA) showed a similar decline in listings, earnings for the market leader only declined by -2%.
The broker assumes more of a U-shaped recovery for Domain in its FY23-25 forecasts for Listings. The Overweight rating is retained and the target falls to $3.60 from $4.10. Industry View: Attractive.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.6
If DHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 23.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of 41.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.02
Ord Minnett rates EVT as Buy (1) -
Interim results were largely in line with expectations. EVT Ltd has signalled that earnings remain at the mercy of movie blockbusters and box office success.
Ord Minnett points out the company is in recovery mode post the pandemic and appears confident its second half lineup will provide better results.
More than $280m in non-core property assets have been divested, with borrowing reduced as a result. This clears the way for developments, which appear to the broker to be progressing well. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $18.70 from $19.11.
Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $14.02 Difference: $4.68
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.30 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 65.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.29
UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -
Upon first glance, G8 Education experienced a strong finish to FY22, analysts at UBS comment following today's release. The broker lauds the combination of cost control, better occupancy and better pricing.
While the demand outlook for the sector is improving, UBS maintains labour constraints remain a headwind.
Buy rating and $1.35 price target are now officially Under Review.
Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.065
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.80
Ord Minnett rates GMG as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Ord Minnett increases estimates in the wake of the first half result. Goodman Group shares still appear slightly overvalued but the rating is now upgraded to Hold from Lighten.
Management has indicated it will not increase distributions, preferring to retain capital amid profitable development opportunities.
The broker commends the business on its positioning as it takes advantage of favourable conditions in industrial property without exposing shareholders to too much risk.
Earnings growth is expected to offset the headwind of rising interest rates. Target is raised to $18.60 from $18.00.
Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $19.80 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 92.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.9, implying annual growth of -48.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 100.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.6, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.57
Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -
Citi sees a stable outlook for GPT Group moving into FY23, expecting retail recovery to continue, particularly in central business districts, which it expects to offset a more cautious outlook on office exposure. This follows delivery of a similarly stable full year result in FY22.
The broker highlights logistics continues to grow, with the company retaining a $1.9bn development pipeline in logistics, and expects GPT Group will continue to search out opportunities to recycle out of lower growth opportunities.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.00 from $4.90.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.43
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.40 cents and EPS of 32.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates GPT as Neutral (3) -
GPT Group's 2022 result was in line with Credit Suisse and guidance and highlighted an improved earnings year, the broker notes, with growth across all key operating segments offset by higher finance costs. 2023 guidance is slightly above expectation.
GPT is trading at a -24% discount to net tangible asset valuation, seemingly being weighed down by its Office exposure as well as its earnings outlook, the broker suggests.
Post a forecast earnings dip in 2023, the broker shows modest earnings growth in 2024-2025, with a potential surprise being sooner than expected leasing success in the Office portfolio. Neutral and $4.93 target retained.
Target price is $4.93 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.36
If GPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -
2022 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations and the portfolio is considered well-placed. FY23 guidance for FFO per share is 31.3c per security with a distribution of 25c.
The main downside risk relates to retail and office, the broker assesses. GPT Group is targeting an increase in office occupancy despite the challenging fundamentals.
As a measure of this downside risk, Macquarie estimates every -1% moderation in occupancy in FY23 would be a -0.2% headwind to earnings.
Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.74.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.43
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Equal-weight (3) -
GPT Group reported FY22 funds from operations (FFO) of 32.4cpu, in line with forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus. Office devaluations were largely responsible for a decline in net tangible assets (NTA) to $5.98/unit from $6.26/unit.
The analyst notes hybrid working arrangements are behind the ongoing deterioration for office occupancy to 87.9% from 92% six months prior.
Cap rates expanded by 26bps in the last six months and revaluations were down by -5% for 2022.
FY23 guidance is for FFO of 31cpu, slightly ahead of the analyst's expectations.
Equal-weight. Target $4.84. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.27
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 30.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.10 cents and EPS of 32.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -
GPT Group's 2022 results, albeit up 12.4%, were slightly below Ord Minnett's estimates. The bounce in earnings was largely due to the cessation of coronavirus effects on the retail portfolio along with strong funds management and rental growth.
The current share price implies a large drop in asset values, the broker calculates, and values development and funds management at zero. This appears too drastic, given the increase in funds under management over 2022, and a large valuation decline is considered unlikely.
Ord Minnett now whitelabels Morningstar instead of JPMorgan and has an Accumulate rating with a $5.40 target.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.83
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.60 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GPT as Buy (1) -
FY22 results and FY23 guidance for GPT Group were in line with expectations previously held by UBS.
The broker maintains its Buy rating, noting the shares continue to trade on the company's weakest link (office) despite retail, logistics and funds management outperforming expectations.
The analyst likes the short-dated logistics development pipeline, the scope to grow assets under management (AUM) and points out the peak for office vacancy has passed (86% occupancy for GPT in FY22).
Management is guiding to FY23 funds from operations (FFO) of circa 31.3cpu and a flat dividend of 25cpu. The target rises to $5.17 from $5.12.
Target price is $5.17 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.6
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 4.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.81
Macquarie rates GWA as Neutral (3) -
GWA Group's first half results missed Macquarie's forecasts and estimates for FY23 and FY24 are cut by -18% and -17%, respectively.
While lowering sales expectations markedly as trading conditions weaken, the broker is also more cautious about margin outcomes with the potential for a shift in mix to lower value products.
As the risks are high in the context of a slowing Australian housing market, the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $2.10.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of 30.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.27
Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -
HomeCo Daily Needs REIT produced a first half result that was in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker suggests the business has multiple levers for growth including active capital recycling and an attractive development pipeline.
Capital recycling over the first half was accretive and Macquarie expects this will continue. Occupancy is still more than 99% amid sector-leading leasing spreads.
Outperform maintained. Target is steady at $1.40.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.13
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -
At first glance, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT broadly met Morgan Stanley's forecasts and management reiterated guidance. The broker takes the result as proof of ramp-up developments after the Aventus merger.
The broker observes the development pipeline has grown to $600m from $500, with a whopping $120m scheduled to commence in FY24, which compares with the company's traditional $30m per year.
Perhaps this explains the sale of Epping during the period (-$70.3m), which was just six months ago being touted as a development prospect, clarifies the analyst.
Morgan Stanley observes about 70% of drawn debt is hedged to June 26 on a base of 2.75% and that the company closed the half with gearing of 31.5%, which would rise to 35% after accounting for another -$250m in capital expenditure.
Equal Weight rating and $1.35 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.08
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates HDN as Add (1) -
In the wake of 1H results for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Morgans assesses all metrics remain solid with greater than 99% occupancy and a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 4.6 years.
The broker points out cap rate expansion was offset by property income growth.
FY23 guidance was reiterated.
Morgans lowers its target to $1.50 from $1.52. Add.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.23
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HDN as Hold (3) -
HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's first half result was in line with expectations. Debt costs are expected to rise in FY24 yet management believes it can deliver growth regardless, through a combination of higher rental income and developments.
Ord Minnett was surprised at the sale of HomeCo Epping, which appears opportunistic as this had been identified as a major development prospect. The broker retains a Hold rating and the target edges up to $1.33 from $1.30.
Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.06
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates HDN as Neutral (3) -
HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered funds from operations (FFO) of 4.3cpu in the 1H, in line with forecasts by UBS and consensus, and reaffirmed FY23 guidance for 8.6cpu.
The analyst likes the trust's development options and it remains the preferred exposure in the space on stronger-than-peer earnings growth.
The broker's target falls to $1.37 from $1.42 to reflect a portfolio cap rate of 5.6%. Neutral.
Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.1
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of -2.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HLO HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $2.17
Morgans rates HLO as Add (1) -
Morgans was impressed by an earnings margin already above pre-covid levels and ongoing improvements for total transaction value (TTV) and profits, after reviewing 1H results for Helloworld Travel.
FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance was upgraded by 25% and the analyst notes management has been traditionally conservative in its projections.
The company sees strong growth into the foreseeable future, boosted by the China re-opening.
The broker considers the stock price is materially undervalued and maintains its Add rating, while the target rises to $3.14 from $2.82.
Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.97
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates HLO as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett welcomes the net profit in the first half given a net loss was anticipated. Helloworld Travel's earnings guidance is also upgraded at the EBITDA level. Nevertheless, this needs to be balanced against the deterioration in the balance sheet post the sale of the corporate division, the broker points out.
There is also an increasing gap between trade creditors and receivables/accrued revenue versus pre-pandemic levels. The company has indicated consumer demand for offshore travel was "going gangbusters", a positive aspect that is likely to underpin earnings in coming years.
The main challenge, in the broker's opinion, is the conversion of earnings to sustainable free cash flow. Hold rating. Target is reduced to $2.08 from $2.15.
Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.10 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HUB HUB24 LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $27.00
Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -
At first glance, Hub24's December-half result outpaced consensus but fell -5% short of Citi's forecasts.
Funds under administration rose by $2.7bn in the first six weeks of the second half, and management raised its Class synergy target.
On the downside, Class revenue disappointed, platform cost-growth was higher than forecast, and adviser flows were down.
Above-consensus guidance reiterated and Citi spies room for consensus upgrades albeit upside is expected to be constrained by cost growth.
Neutral rating retained and $29 target price retained for now.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $2
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.60 cents and EPS of 66.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of 205.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 37.70 cents and EPS of 81.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.9, implying annual growth of 28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates HUB as Buy (1) -
Following an early assessment of today's interim report release, UBS analysts believe Hub24 has yet again managed to "beat the street" with its financial performance.
The interim dividend of 14c compares with UBS's 12c forecast and market consensus on 12.8c.
Very strong growth in revenues was matched by strong growth in costs but margin surprise decided the positive outcome, the analysts suggest.
Buy. Target $31.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $4
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of 205.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.9, implying annual growth of 28.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.70
Citi rates ILU as Sell (5) -
At first glance, Iluka Resources' FY22 full-year result met consensus and outpaced Citi's forecasts.
The final investment decision on Balranald was achieved (and Wimmera approved) requiring roughly -$480m in capital expenditure (higher than expected), and the broker observes the timing could be better given softer mineral sands prices.
But the company kicks off 2023 with a strong cash position of $489m, observes the broker. Sell rating and $10.40 target price retained for now.
Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 140.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.9, implying annual growth of 64.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 111.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.6, implying annual growth of -7.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IRE IRESS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $9.09
Macquarie rates IRE as Neutral (3) -
Iress's full-year result just scraped into the low end of downgraded September guidance as reduced revenue combined with higher expenses to cut margins. Capital expenditure rose $5m half on half to the top end of guidance and net debt has risen to $326.1m.
Management's FY23 net profit after tax guidance fell at the low end of Macquarie's forecasts.
EPS forecasts fall -32% in FY23; -27% in FY24; and -24% to -26% thereafter.
The broker describes 2022 as a rebasing year and observes the core of the Australian business remains strong (but UK continues to drag), the company's annual churn rate has eased, and the dividend is attractive. Macquarie awaits the company's April 20 Investor Day (post an operational review) and evidence on EPS execution.
Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $9.30 from $12.40.
Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $0.21
If IRE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 39.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.1, implying annual growth of -4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates IRE as Hold (3) -
Despite in-line FY22 headline numbers for Iress, Morgans points to ongoing margin pressure which weighed upon the 2H.
Guidance, on a business-as-usual basis, is for segment profit "at or above" 2022 levels. The analyst notes if segment profit is flat, underlying profit will have fallen by around -16.5% on the previous corresponding period.
The broker awaits the company's strategy and execution update on April 20 for further clarity on costs and updated FY25 targets.
Ultimately, Morgans sees significant upside for earnings though valuation multiples are currently full and balance sheet flexibility has been reduced. Hold.
The target falls to $9.20 from $10.56.
Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $0.11
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.1, implying annual growth of -4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of -7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JDO JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $1.44
Citi rates JDO as Buy (1) -
At a glance, Judo Capital's December-half cash earnings outpaced consensus forecasts thanks to a sharp fall in the company's TD spread, but management doubts this will continue, with January TD spreads already on the rise.
Strong loan growth met forecasts but tougher competition as credit growth slowed triggered pressure on pricing and margins.
Citi says the beat justifies the company's share-price rise since October but the broker is keeping a keen eye peeled to the credit environment.
Buy rating and $1.90 target price retained for now.
Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.46
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of 36.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.20
Macquarie rates JRV as Outperform (1) -
Jervois Global's recent assay results from a six-hole drilling plan at ICO point to resource upside, and Macquarie expects the project will deliver its first concentrate this quarter and an updated reserves and resources estimate in the June quarter.
While lower cobalt prices have proved a drag, Macquarie expects the company to diversify as the number of operational assets increases.
Outperform rating and 40c target price retained.
Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.2
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
KLS KELSIAN GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $6.39
Macquarie rates KLS as Outperform (1) -
Kelsian Group's recent Sydney bus contract tender has yielded fruit, the company winning the NSW Region 2 (which includes Region 15) contract.
The contract, valued at $500m, runs from October 23 to late June 2031 and Macquarie says the deal expands the company's presence in south-western Sydney. Kelsian now operates 30% of the NSW network: Regions 2, 3, 6, 12 and 15.
Macquarie tinkers with earnings estimates. Outperform rating and $8.10 target price retained.
Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $1.71
If KLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.87, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 32.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 26.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 39.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 18.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.95
Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -
Lunnon Metals has completed five extra drill holes (twins) to further metallurgical testing at Baker and advises a maiden reserve is expected within a few months.
A final investment decision is expected by late 2023. Macquarie made miniscule changes to short-term forecasts. Target remains $1.30.
Lunnon Metals remains Outperform-rated.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.355
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $2.14
Citi rates LNK as Neutral (3) -
While Link Administration is set to report on its first half later in February, Citi notes the company continues to guide to full year earnings growth of 10-12%. The broker makes no changes to its earnings per share forecast at this point, it will reassess after the half year result.
Citi has adjusted its first and second half outlooks for Link Administration to account for profits on PEXA and impairment charges for the company's Link Fund Solutions (LFS). The broker expects successful execution of the LFS sale with a broadly net zero outcome would be positive for the stock.
The Neutral rating and target price of $2.00 are retained.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 57.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $81.85
Ord Minnett rates MIN as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
As the share price for Mineral Resources has moved through the trigger point, Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten. Target is $75.
Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $81.85 Difference: minus $6.85 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $97.59, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 614.00 cents and EPS of 1131.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 976.3, implying annual growth of 428.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 493.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 903.60 cents and EPS of 1828.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1507.6, implying annual growth of 54.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 728.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting
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Overnight Price: $13.96
Citi rates MND as Sell (5) -
In an initial response to Monadelphous Group's interim result, Citi analysts point out the disappointment came from Engineering & Construction.
While management at the firm sees a recovery in FY24, Citi analysts are more cautious, referring to stiff and aggressive competition for projects while awards and commencements generally continue to face delays.
The first half showed resilience, the analysts acknowledge, but they nevertheless believe the subdued outlook for E&C will weigh on investors' minds.
Sell. Target $12.35.
Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $13.96 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.80 cents and EPS of 56.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.5, implying annual growth of 10.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.50 cents and EPS of 65.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.8, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MND as Neutral (3) -
Upon first glance, Monadelphous Group has beaten forecasts with its interim financials but management's cautious guidance implies a lower sales outlook, explains UBS.
The broker highlights management expects FY23 Construction revenues to decline, before increasing again in FY24, making timing of new project awards and commencements the deciding factors, alongside labour availability.
Neutral. Target $13.85.
Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $13.96 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.5, implying annual growth of 10.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.8, implying annual growth of 18.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.05
Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -
Given macro conditions appear unlikely to improve near-term, Citi has materially lowered its forecasts for Megaport's key products.
Of note, the broker lowered its forecast for services in use by -10-20%, reflecting a weaker than expected second quarter and the broker's expectation that weak demand continues into the third quarter.
The broker does expect the company will benefit from a shift to hybrid and multi-cloud as the transition matures.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.05 from $10.95.
Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $1
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.05, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.02
Citi rates NHF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
A disappointing first half result from nib Holdings, according to Citi, with the broker noting much of the 'miss' stemmed from pre-flagged losses from Midnight Health.
Further investment in Midnight Health looks to be a feature of the next three to four halves, with Citi not anticipating a breakeven until FY25.
Despite arhi margins declining markedly in the period, the broker points out this segment continues to grow ahead of system and the company expects growth of 3-4% over the year. Both iihi and travel are demonstrating quick recovery, suggests the broker.
The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $7.85 from $7.60.
Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.83
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 39.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 45.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NHF as Neutral (3) -
Despite a -4.5% miss on underlying operating profit, nib Holdings' core business momentum still looks strong, Credit Suisse suggests.
The 'miss' resulted from Australian residents health insurance margins with a management expense ratio above consensus, but most of this was offset by beats in other divisions.
The majority of the 'miss' resulted from a headwind from Midnight Health (now consolidated). Core private health insurance metrics seem solid and the turnaround for inbound international health insurance continues, the broker notes.
Credit Suisse nevertheless retains Neutral while waiting for further evidence of a strong post-covid rebound. Target falls to $7.70 from $8.09.
Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.68
If NHF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 39.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -
nib Holdings's December-half result disappointed Macquarie on the residents' margin front, but the broker spies a covid rebound in play.
While expenses were on the high side, the broker observes the company's NDIS business posted strong customer growth, travel and international divisions pleased; nib's trajectory remains strong.
EPS forecasts fall -6.2% in FY23; and -3.2% in FY2024 to reflect the pressure on residents net margins.
Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $7.55 from $7.20.
Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.53
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 39.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 44.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -
nib Holdings's December-half result met Morgan Stanley's forceast, a blip in net claims and underwriting costs overshadowing a rise in revenue and contributing to a -9% miss on net underwriting profit. But the broker says claims, while higher, remain benign.
Group net underwriting margins disappointed the broker and consensus, as did underlying EPS, leading to EPS downgrades.
On the upside, net policyholder growth outpaced and guidance was reiterated. The broker suspect growth may be on the up, hence the retention of guidance.
Equal-weight rating retained. Target price falls to $6.95 form $7.15. Industry view: In line.
Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.30 cents and EPS of 36.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 39.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NHF as Add (1) -
First half reported profit for nib Holdings was a -6% miss versus the consensus forecast, while the 13cps interim dividend was in line.
Morgans considers the underlying business performance was sound with profit and revenue growth on the previous corresponding period.
Guidance remains broad, notes the analyst, with 3-4% policy holder growth in Australian residents householder insurance (ARHI) and 3-5% policyholder growth in New Zealand.
The broker has some nagging concerns regarding the speed of profit normalisation after the ARHI net margin slumped to 8.6% from 10.6% in the previous corresponding period.
The target falls to $7.55 from $8.15. Hold.
Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.53
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.70 cents and EPS of 42.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 39.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.20 cents and EPS of 42.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NHF as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
First half results were mixed, with a strong rebound in travel and international insurance partially offset by weaker-than-expected Australian private health insurance.
In adddition to deferral of premium price increases, nib Holdings' bottom line was affected by higher acquisition costs and additional investment expenditure.
Ord Minnett increases FY23 profit estimates by around 5% following the result. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten while the target of $7 is unchanged.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 39.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 47.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NHF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
First half results were below consensus expectations yet UBS considers these were optimistic. The broker assesses the decline in the nib Holdings stock price is overdone and there is now a unique entry point.
As a result, the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target raised to $8.00 from $7.80.
The broker observes policy growth in Australian resident insurance remains buoyant and the brand continues to gain market share. Policy growth is expected to exceed the 3-4% guidance range in FY23.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.98
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of 39.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
Gold & Silver
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Overnight Price: $11.22
Credit Suisse rates NST as Neutral (3) -
Northern Star Resources' result met Credit Suisse but missed consensus, because consensus had its accounting wrong, the broker believes. The 11c dividend will be the last fully-franked for some time, the broker notes, given minimal domestic revenues ahead.
Northern Star’s language towards the KCGM mill expansion has become more subdued, Credit Suisse suggests, with “execution” remaining a key risk. Management is left with a "buy or build" decision.
The broker would prefer the miner to leverage its organic optionality, preserve the balance sheet and return excess funds. However, it is in a unique position whereby inorganic opportunities may be more accretive.
Neutral and $11.50 target retained.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.28
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -28.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of 73.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -
On closer examination, Northern Star Resources's December-half earnings and net profit sharply outpaced Macquarie's estimates. Management retains guidance and will issue a decision on the KCGM mill expansion this year.
The broker notes the net profit was boosted by an $11m gain on revaluation of the debenture and a $2.2m FX gain, which were not in estimates.
The dividend was also higher than expected at $0.11 versus $0.10, and Northern Star Resources expects any dividends paid within the next 18 months will be unfranked because of a low franking credit balance.
EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY23 and are steady thereafter. Outperform rating and $14 target retained.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $2.78
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.80 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -28.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.80 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of 73.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -
Northern Star Resources' December-half missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts, although the dividend outpaced by 10% (but the company advised there would be no franking credits for 18 months).
The big misses were in earnings (EBITDA), which fell -11% short of consensus and -9% below the broker's forecasts due to inventory movements; and a -25% consensus shortfall on cash conversion (MS -23%) as working capital investment jumped sharply.
Net debt rose sharply to $376m vs consensus forecasts of $220m.
A decision is expected on the KCGM mill expansion in 2023 and EPS forecasts rise across FY23 and FY24.
Equal-Weight rating retained. Target price rises to $11.75 from the last entry in the FNArena database in January of $10.90.
Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.53
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -28.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of 73.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NST as Buy (1) -
First half results from Northern Star Resources beat Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker envisages EBITDA, margins and free cash flow will all improve markedly into the second half.
This view is based on the weighted production guidance amid fundamental improvements at Thunderbox, KCGM and Pogo. Buy rating maintained. Target is steady at $12.80.
Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $1.58
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -28.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of 73.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -
First half results were in line with UBS. With slightly higher costs compared with Evolution Mining ((EVN)) and Newcrest ((NCM)), the broker believes Northern Star Resources still offers better operating performance, that translates to lower-risk production while there remain growth options.
The next major catalyst is the Super Pit expansion, the broker suggests. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $11.50 from $11.10.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.28
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of -28.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of 73.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.10
Morgan Stanley rates NXL as Equal-weight (3) -
Nuix's preannounced December-half result was as expected and Morgan Stanley takes this as a positive - confirmation that the company is enjoying rising demand and prices.
Revenue is now on the up, but the broker advises the company remains a turnaround story, believing a rerating will swing on new contract wins and higher returns.
Equal-weight rating and $1.25 target price retained.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.155
If NXL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.69 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.54
Credit Suisse rates OML as Neutral (3) -
oOh!media reported a slight beat on earnings. At the revenue line, a weaker than expected outcome for Street & Rail was somewhat offset by better than expected performance in Road and in Fly, Credit Suisse notes.
Management pointed to growth continuing into the start of first half of 2023, with Road and Fly continuing strong momentum from 2022. The broker now forecasts first half revenues to be at 98% of 2019 levels.
Neutral and $1.70 target retained.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.16
If OML meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 18.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -
oOh!media's FY22 full-year result outpaced consensus' and Macquaries' forecasts by 1% thanks to stronger than expected road segment revenue (which posted double digit growth on higher margins), and the broker observes the company is proving more resilient than many peers.
Management points to a strong contract pipeline but the broker notes that while large contracts are defensive, these are typically lower margin. The broker expects an outcome for the Sydney Metro City and Southwest contract in 2023.
On the capital management front, the buyback will continue if not completed by August, and the company flagged potential M&A.
Interest expense was less than expected, flowing into EPS upgrades. EPS forecasts rise 30% in FY23; 45% in FY24; and 46% in FY25.
Outperform rating. Target price rises 30% to $2.49 from $1.86.
Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.95
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 18.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates OML as Equal-weight (3) -
oOh!media's FY22 full-year result met consensus forecasts, revenue rising 17.6% and earnings (EBITDA) posting a 3.2% beat.
Management's first-quarter trading update confirmed momentum from structural tailwinds are continuing, but Morgan Stanley believes the company is more exposed than peers to a macro downturn given its higher operating leverage; and is hence a riskier proposition.
The broker observes that roughly 32% of the company's contracts are due for renewal in 2023 - higher than usual - falling at a less than desirable point in the market.
EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY23; and 12% in FY24 to reflect stronger earnings.
Equal-weight rating retained. Target price rises to $1.50 from $1.40. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If OML meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 18.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates OML as Hold (3) -
2022 operating earnings were below forecasts and Ord Minnett reduces EBITDA estimates by around -8% for the next three years. Longer term expectations remain intact.
oOh!media has had a focus since 2021 on maximising concession economics, appearing willing to walk away from low-margin contracts. The broker suspects 2023 will be a test for this strategy, given the large number of concessions up for renewal.
Also, competitors have ramped up considerably and may be more willing to sacrifice margins on any renewals that are up for grabs. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $1.50 target.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If OML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 18.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.92
Ord Minnett rates QBE as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
2022 results were much stronger than Ord Minnett expected. The underwriting result more than doubled to US$2.2bn, supported by a 9% increase in premiums and a drop in expense and commission ratios.
The broker makes minor changes to estimates but is now more positive on operating costs. Given a higher cash rate environment, Ord Minnett expects QBE Insurance to generate stronger returns on its policyholder and shareholder funds in 2023.
Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target lifted 8% to $13.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $14.92 Difference: minus $1.92 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.49, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 177.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 159.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -
UBS raises its target price to $18 from $17 following FY22 results which showed an ongoing turnaround across the business. QBE Insurance is considered undervalued and the Buy rating is maintained.
Market fears around the group's ability to secure sufficient reinsurance cover at reasonable cost were overstated, according to the broker.
After eliminating surrounding noise, the analyst suggests the 2H underlying insurance margin was 12% which is a half on half increase and reflects consistent improvement over the past three years.
Second half profits were bolstered by rising yields and attritional claims, while in the 4Q repricing was 7.1%, which UBS suggests is sufficient to absorb FY23 headwinds from attritional claims inflation.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.92 Difference: $3.08
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.49, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 104.02 cents and EPS of 137.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 118.46 cents and EPS of 157.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $3.55
Citi rates RWC as Sell (5) -
Despite finding Reliance Worldwide's first half result solid, Citi is cautious of strength setting a high bar for the coming fiscal year.
According to the broker, the company benefited from a macro environment that wasn't that challenging, but macro impacts may take more of a toll from the second half.
The broker sees risk in soft housing exit rates from the US, a potential unwind of unusual plumbing strength in the UK, and Australian Pacific margins that may be impacted by better cash conversion and lower inventory.
The Sell rating and target price of $3.00 are retained.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates RWC as Outperform (1) -
Reliance Worldwide's profit was in line with Credit Suisse, cashflow was slightly weak, and second quarter sales trends were approximately stable on the first quarter. APAC external sales weakened, attributed to weakness in Korea/China.
Management has guided to lower second half volumes in all regions. Reliance's margin recovery trend nevertheless remains intact, the broker notes, despite a significant recovery in copper prices.
A new product, said to be “core” and an “important part of the next growth phase,” will be launched at the upcoming investor day. Outperform retained, with margins recovering from covid and only moderate volume reversion risk versus pre-covid trends, suggests the broker.
Target rises to $4.30 from $3.90.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.75
If RWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -
On closer examination, Reliance Worldwide's December-half result proved a slight beat overall, thanks to a stronger cash performance.
Macquarie appreciates management's repeated assurances of a June-half margin recovery (peak prices are now matching peak costs, says the broker), and signs demand is holding up, particularly in the UK.
The broker expects continued inventory normalisation/destocking, and plans $15m in cost-outs.
No FY23 guidance was provided given the macro environment. EPS forecasts rise 0.8% in FY23; fall -2% in FY24; and fall -3% in FY25.
Outperform rating. Target price eases to $4.15 from $4.20.
Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.6
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Overweight (1) -
Reliance Worldwide's December-half result slightly outpaced consensus forecasts (and Morgan Stanley by 5%), thanks to resilient demand and signs of cost stabilisation.
No FY23 earnings guidance was forthcoming and EPS and dividend forecasts ease.
The broker suspects costs may have peaked but forecasts continued pressure on the demand side, after management envisaged weakness in North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
On the upside, the broker expects an improvement in margins in the June half, thanks to lower commodity price.
Capital expenditure rose, and the company announced a $15m cost-out program to be realised in FY24. Overweight rating and $4 target price.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.45
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.72 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -
First half results for Reliance Worldwide were a slight beat against Morgans expectations. Highlights included a 15% beat for earnings (EBITDA) in the EMEA region, while group operating cash flow jumped by 57% due to lower growth in working capital.
On the flipside, negatives included lower margins in all regions (the group margin fell -280bps to 21.3%), with earnings from the Americas and APAC falling short of the broker's expectations.
Management expects margins to improve in the 2H as cost pressures ease and the company is planning for an additional -US$15m cost out by FY24. However, the demand outlook is thought to remain uncertain.
After allowing for benefits from cost-out and adjusting for currency, the analyst increases forecasts for FY23-FY25 underlying earnings by between 5-6%. The target rises to $3.75 from $3.17 once the financial model is rolled forward. Hold.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.2
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 27.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RWC as Hold (3) -
First half results were largely in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker assesses, going forward, lower levels of construction activity are likely to deliver lower volumes in Reliance Worldwide's three main geographies.
The uncertainty leads Ord Minnett to adopt a cautious outlook, maintaining a Hold rating and $3.40 target.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RWC as Buy (1) -
First half results were largely in line and UBS assesses Reliance Worldwide is on track with its margin recovery. The improvement is largely stemming from cost reductions and lagged commodity inputs.
While the further cost savings outlined by management are a positive, the broker expects minimum contribution to margins and forecasts a 22.7% group EBITDA margin in FY24.
UBS still prefers James Hardie ((JHX)) on a 12-month view while retaining a Buy rating with a $4.60 target.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $1.05
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.45 cents and EPS of 27.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.48
Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -
First half results were weaker than Ord Minnett anticipated. The major drivers of the -US$510m drop in EBITDA were aluminium, metallurgical coal and Cannington. This was partially offset by copper, as early in 2022 South32 bought a 45% stake in the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile.
Ord Minnett forecasts metallurgical coal to account for around 30% of 2023 EBITDA, underpinned by elevated prices.
The company has decided not to proceed with the extension of Dendrobium and the broker suspects that, over the longer term, South32's coal mining operation will cease altogether. Hold maintained. Target is $4.40.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.70 cents and EPS of 56.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.70 cents and EPS of 51.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.9, implying annual growth of 20.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.64
UBS rates SDF as Buy (1) -
UBS notes Steadfast Group has lifted its FY23 underlying growth guidance for earnings per share by 5 basis points to 10-15% ahead of the first half results on February 22.
The Buy rating and $6.70 target are unchanged.
Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: $1.06
If SDF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 28.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 26.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.32
UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -
It is UBS's first assessment that Seek's interim report release missed its forecasts, but the broker also believes the performance is in line with market consensus.
Asia turned out the key highlight for the broker, while the company continues to surprise through reinvestments made. FY23 guidance has been tightened towards the low end of the prior range.
Buy. Target $27.80.
Target price is $27.80 Current Price is $24.32 Difference: $3.48
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.35, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.3, implying annual growth of 47.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.89
Citi rates SGP as Neutral (3) -
At a glance, Stockland's December-half result fell -8% short of consensus and -10% below Citi's forecasts. Management reiterated guidance (residential volume guidance was reduced by -8% but the impact was offset by a 19% rise in operating profit margin guidance).
Gearing eased and net tangible assets were broadly steady; the balance sheet solid; and like-for-like net operating income growth in Industrials strong.
The broker expects the market will react negatively to the result.
Neutral rating and $3.81 retained for now.
Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of -42.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SGP as Buy (1) -
In an early response to Stockland's first half, UBS has attributed a funds from operations miss of -6% to weaker communities and higher overhead costs, with the company reporting funds from operations of $353m.
The broker highlights residential settlements declined -29% year-on-year, but net sales lifted in the second quarter and were ahead of market expectations.
The broker is Buy rated with a target price of $4.41.
Target price is $4.41 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.52
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of -42.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $13.24
Ord Minnett rates SUL as Downgrade to Sell from Lighten (5) -
As the Super Retail share price has moved through the trigger point, Ord Minnett downgrades to Sell from Lighten. Target is $9.50.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $13.24 Difference: minus $3.74 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.15, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 108.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.4, implying annual growth of 5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 83.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.7, implying annual growth of -17.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.90
Morgan Stanley rates SYM as Overweight (1) -
Symbio's preannounced (downgraded) December-half results met expectations.
Morgan Stanley observes an uncertain June half given several variables, including:
On the downside: the largest implied second-half earings skew in years; organic stagnation in the face of strong seat growth; and the incorporation of Intrado's five-month contribution into existing guidance.
On the upside: Strength in the company's Telco-as-a-service division; Singapore is expected to start contributing in FY24; and strong first-half top-line figures suggest a potential second-half beat.
EPS forecasts are downgraded sharply to catch up with the December downgrade.
Overweight rating and $2.20 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.3
If SYM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
A2M | a2 Milk Co | $6.11 | Citi | 4.75 | 4.51 | 5.32% |
Credit Suisse | 5.10 | 5.30 | -3.77% | |||
Macquarie | 5.00 | 4.25 | 17.65% | |||
Morgans | 6.45 | 6.35 | 1.57% | |||
ACL | Australian Clinical Labs | $3.45 | Citi | 4.10 | 4.15 | -1.20% |
Credit Suisse | 3.80 | 3.45 | 10.14% | |||
ADH | Adairs | $2.24 | Morgans | 2.60 | 2.70 | -3.70% |
UBS | 2.95 | 3.25 | -9.23% | |||
ALD | Ampol | $31.69 | Morgan Stanley | 30.14 | 31.23 | -3.49% |
UBS | 37.00 | 36.90 | 0.27% | |||
ALU | Altium | $37.69 | Macquarie | 40.00 | 31.40 | 27.39% |
Morgan Stanley | 43.50 | 35.00 | 24.29% | |||
AUB | AUB Group | $26.37 | UBS | 29.00 | 27.00 | 7.41% |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | $3.44 | Credit Suisse | 4.10 | 4.00 | 2.50% |
Macquarie | 3.71 | N/A | - | |||
Morgans | 3.81 | 3.72 | 2.42% | |||
BEN | Bendigo & Adelaide Bank | $9.79 | Citi | 10.40 | 10.00 | 4.00% |
Morgan Stanley | 10.50 | 10.10 | 3.96% | |||
BSL | BlueScope Steel | $18.62 | Citi | 20.50 | 19.50 | 5.13% |
Credit Suisse | 14.40 | 19.90 | -27.64% | |||
Macquarie | 18.00 | 18.10 | -0.55% | |||
UBS | 21.80 | 20.50 | 6.34% | |||
CHC | Charter Hall | $13.55 | Credit Suisse | 15.45 | 15.44 | 0.06% |
Macquarie | 14.75 | 14.81 | -0.41% | |||
UBS | 14.00 | 13.90 | 0.72% | |||
CNU | Chorus | $7.27 | Ord Minnett | 6.90 | 6.90 | 0.00% |
COL | Coles Group | $18.13 | UBS | 18.25 | 16.75 | 8.96% |
DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | $3.05 | Morgan Stanley | 3.60 | 4.60 | -21.74% |
EVT | EVT Ltd | $13.17 | Ord Minnett | 18.70 | 19.11 | -2.15% |
GMG | Goodman Group | $19.61 | Ord Minnett | 18.60 | 18.00 | 3.33% |
GPT | GPT Group | $4.63 | Citi | 5.00 | 4.90 | 2.04% |
Macquarie | 5.00 | 4.74 | 5.49% | |||
Ord Minnett | 5.40 | 4.50 | 20.00% | |||
UBS | 5.17 | 5.12 | 0.98% | |||
GWA | GWA Group | $1.84 | Macquarie | 1.80 | 2.10 | -14.29% |
HDN | HomeCo Daily Needs REIT | $1.26 | Morgans | 1.50 | 1.52 | -1.32% |
Ord Minnett | 1.33 | 1.29 | 3.10% | |||
UBS | 1.37 | 1.42 | -3.52% | |||
HLO | Helloworld Travel | $2.32 | Morgans | 3.14 | 2.82 | 11.35% |
Ord Minnett | 2.08 | 2.15 | -3.26% | |||
IRE | Iress | $8.96 | Macquarie | 9.30 | 12.40 | -25.00% |
Morgans | 9.20 | 10.56 | -12.88% | |||
MP1 | Megaport | $6.02 | Citi | 7.05 | 10.95 | -35.62% |
NHF | nib Holdings | $7.16 | Citi | 7.85 | 7.60 | 3.29% |
Credit Suisse | 7.70 | 7.53 | 2.26% | |||
Macquarie | 7.55 | 7.20 | 4.86% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 6.95 | 7.15 | -2.80% | |||
Morgans | 7.55 | 8.15 | -7.36% | |||
UBS | 8.00 | 7.80 | 2.56% | |||
NST | Northern Star Resources | $11.00 | Morgan Stanley | 11.75 | 10.90 | 7.80% |
UBS | 11.50 | 11.10 | 3.60% | |||
OML | oOh!media | $1.53 | Credit Suisse | 1.70 | 1.50 | 13.33% |
Macquarie | 2.49 | 1.86 | 33.87% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 1.50 | 1.40 | 7.14% | |||
QBE | QBE Insurance | $14.97 | Ord Minnett | 13.00 | 12.00 | 8.33% |
UBS | 18.00 | 17.00 | 5.88% | |||
RWC | Reliance Worldwide | $3.58 | Credit Suisse | 4.30 | 3.90 | 10.26% |
Morgans | 3.75 | 3.17 | 18.30% | |||
SGP | Stockland | $3.76 | UBS | 4.41 | 4.30 | 2.56% |
Summaries
A2M | a2 Milk Co | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $6.49 |
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.49 | ||
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.49 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.49 | ||
ACL | Australian Clinical Labs | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.33 |
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.33 | ||
ADH | Adairs | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.41 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.41 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.41 | ||
ALD | Ampol | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $32.31 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $32.31 | ||
Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $32.31 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $32.31 | ||
ALU | Altium | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $40.00 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $40.00 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $40.00 | ||
AMP | AMP | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.10 |
ASX | ASX | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $68.48 |
AUB | AUB Group | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $25.83 |
AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.44 |
Resume Coverage with Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.44 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.44 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.44 | ||
BEN | Bendigo & Adelaide Bank | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $9.79 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.79 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.79 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $9.79 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.79 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $9.79 | ||
BHP | BHP Group | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $48.46 |
BSL | BlueScope Steel | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $17.84 |
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $17.84 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $17.84 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $17.84 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $17.84 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $17.84 | ||
CGC | Costa Group | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.70 |
CHC | Charter Hall | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.63 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $13.63 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $13.63 | ||
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.63 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $13.63 | ||
CNU | Chorus | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.48 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.48 | ||
COL | Coles Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $18.30 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $18.30 | ||
DHG | Domain Holdings Australia | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.00 |
EVT | EVT Ltd | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $14.02 |
GEM | G8 Education | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.29 |
GMG | Goodman Group | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $19.80 |
GPT | GPT Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $4.57 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.57 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.57 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.57 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.57 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.57 | ||
GWA | GWA Group | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.81 |
HDN | HomeCo Daily Needs REIT | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.27 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.27 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.27 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.27 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.27 | ||
HLO | Helloworld Travel | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.17 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.17 | ||
HUB | Hub24 | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $27.00 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $27.00 | ||
ILU | Iluka Resources | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $10.70 |
IRE | Iress | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.09 |
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.09 | ||
JDO | Judo Capital | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.44 |
JRV | Jervois Global | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.20 |
KLS | Kelsian Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.39 |
LM8 | Lunnon Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.95 |
LNK | Link Administration | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.14 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $81.85 |
MND | Monadelphous Group | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $13.96 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $13.96 | ||
MP1 | Megaport | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.05 |
NHF | nib Holdings | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.02 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.02 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.02 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.02 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.02 | ||
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.02 | ||
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.02 | ||
NST | Northern Star Resources | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.22 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.22 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.22 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.22 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $11.22 | ||
NXL | Nuix | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.10 |
OML | oOh!media | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.54 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.54 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.54 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.54 | ||
QBE | QBE Insurance | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $14.92 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $14.92 | ||
RWC | Reliance Worldwide | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $3.55 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.55 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.55 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.55 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.55 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.55 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.55 | ||
S32 | South32 | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.48 |
SDF | Steadfast Group | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.64 |
SEK | Seek | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $24.32 |
SGP | Stockland | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.89 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.89 | ||
SUL | Super Retail | Downgrade to Sell from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.24 |
SYM | Symbio Holdings | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.90 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 49 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 49 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 9 |
Tuesday 21 February 2023
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