Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Sell (5) -

Citi expects upside risk to medium-term earnings margins, likely to be in the teens, has somewhat dissipated for a2 Milk Co since October, with the company failing to reiterate commentary that upside could drive margins into the low-to-mid 20s. 

The broker expects this is a result of English label underperformance, and notes it could suggest downside risk to consensus expectations of a 20% margin by FY26. Citi does credit the company for its first half result in China, but expects this could prove hard to replicate as a  birth rate decline cycles through. 

The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.75 from $4.51.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $1.74 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates A2M as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

a2 Milk made strong gains in Chinese infant formula market share in the first half on excellent marketing and execution, Credit Suisse declares. Brand awareness continues to improve in China.

Upside risk is nonetheless difficult because the Chinese infant formula demand rate of decline appears to have quickened. The broker's modelling now suggests a further -10% decline in demand in 2023.

Credit Suisse is concerned the China re-registration process could cause market disorder. Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral on valuation. Target falls to $5.10 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A2M as Underperform (5) -

First half results beat Macquarie's estimates while the outlook for FY23 is largely unchanged. A2 Milk Co has made gains in market share and revenue growth is not driven by volume, Macquarie observes.

Recent drivers of a re-rating include a reopening of China and the US infant formula expansion, yet both of these are immaterial to earnings over the short term, the broker adds.

Macquarie raises the target to $5.00 from $4.25 on the earnings roll and maintains an Underperform rating.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $1.49 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates A2M as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a solid outcome after the release of 1H results by the a2 Milk Co, which showed strong growth (led by China label infant formula) and ongoing market share gains. Earnings were a beat though cashflow was materially weaker than expected.

FY23 guidance was largely unchanged though the broker feels management was cautious on the China infant formula industry for 2023.

Morgans makes only minor changes to its forecasts. The target rises to $6.45 from $6.35. Hold.

The analyst can see the company's FY26 revenue targets being met, though higher-end margin targets appear lofty given a weaker performance by the English label infant formula in the 1H.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $6.49 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ACL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Having last week reassured investors that margins would be in line with pre-covid levels, in its first half result Australian Clinical Labs has suggested business as usual margins look to be at or above 11% in the second half and beyond, in what Citi found to be a highlight of the result. 

The update has given Citi more confidence in Australian Clinical Labs' ability to reach targeted low teens earnings margins moving forward. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $4.10 from $3.30. 

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.77
If ACL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ACL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Australian Clinical Labs' underlying earnings, excluding one-offs, came in slightly below Credit Suisse' forecast. Margins were nevertheless maintained on solid cost control despite an -83% decline in covid-releated revenue.

Australian Clinical Labs has outperformed Healius ((HLS)) on all metrics, the broker notes, achieving a stronger earnings performance
due to its Unified Laboratory Network, where uniform equipment and systems across all high-volume central laboratories has enabled greater agility in managing its labour cost base over varying demand.

Seeing no immediate change in this trend, Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.45.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.47
If ACL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADH as Hold (3) -

First half revenue for Adairs came in 5% ahead of Morgans forecast on better than expected sales at both Adairs and Focus. Earnings (EBIT) were an -11% miss on a one-off (-$5m) logistical cost and an underperforming online business.

Had the logistical cost not occurred at the new national distribution centre, 1H earnings would have been a 2% beat, points out the analyst.

Management reduced earnings guidance to $70-80m from $75-85m.

After allowing for the 1H result and ongoing supply chain issues in the 2H, the broker lowers its target to $2.60 from $2.70. Hold.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.19
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ADH as Hold (3) -

First half results were mixed with net profit and EBIT slightly below Ord Minnett's forecast. Adairs has downgraded FY23 EBIT guidance to $70-80m because of elevated supply chain costs.

As a result cost reductions have been initiated in order to underpin profitability amid prospects of a weaker consumer environment.

The stock continues to trade on undemanding multiples and Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating. The main risk, the broker suggests, is if trading conditions continue to deteriorate. Target is $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ADH as Buy (1) -

First half results missed expectations and FY23 EBIT guidance has been revised down. A cost reduction program has been initiated.

For the Adairs brand UBS forecasts 10% EBIT margins over FY23-24 and 11% in FY25, below pre-pandemic levels.

UBS notes brand image continues to affect Mocka following problems with delivery and products in the second half of FY22. Customers returning to stores has also affected online demand.

The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $2.95 from $3.25.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.54
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

2022 results were broadly in line with expectations. Macquarie notes de-leveraging after the Z acquisition has allowed for a generous 70% payout plus a special dividend.

The broker also points out, previously, when corporate returns were at the current level the share price was $35-38 and the business is now larger and far more advanced in convenience retail.

After a record earnings year Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $39.50 target.

Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $7.19
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is anticipating a positive market reaction to FY22 results released by Ampol following a 2% earnings beat.

Also, January's Lytton refinery margin was US$18.40/bbl compared to the broker's 2023 forecast for US$12/bbl and fuel volumes for the month rose 5.6% on a like-for-like basis.

A fully franked final dividend of 105cps and a special dividend of 50cps were declared.

Management expects capex will be "at a similar level to 2022".

Target 30.14. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $30.14 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: minus $2.17 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett finds no longer-term implications from a very strong 2022 cash result, which was well ahead of  expectations. The main surprise was Ampol rewarding shareholders with a special dividend of $0.50 on top of the underlying full year dividend of $1.75.

The results reflected the Z Energy acquisition although the main feature in profit growth was extraordinarily strong refiner margins. The rating is reduced to Hold from Buy and the target remains at $34.50, with the shares now considered only marginally undervalued.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $2.19
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Ampol's earnings (EBIT) were in line with forecasts by UBS for FY22, while underlying profit was a slight miss.

A 50cps special dividend was a key highlight for the analyst, a distribution of the Z Energy property sale. The dividend payout ratio of 70% of underlying profit is expected to be maintained, despite an expected normalisation of refining margins.

Should refining margins remain higher for longer, the broker can see upside to its current forecast for an around 6% dividend yield.

UBS raises its 2023 EPS forecast by 2% to reflect a stronger retail fuel margin outlook in A&NZ in the first half of 2023, as well as continued growth in shop margins over the near-term.

The target rises to $37.00 from $36.90. Buy.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: $4.69
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.17, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

Stronger than expected earnings margins more than offset weaker revenue for Altium and saw the company deliver a 2% beat to Citi's earnings  and underlying net profits forecasts. The former grew 24% year-on-year to US$43m, and the latter 30%.

Standouts for Citi were strong growth in both professional and enterprise revenue, which supported an 11% increase in average revenue per subscriber to US$2,304. The company reiterated full year guidance, and guided to an increase in subscriptions growth over the second half.

The Neutral rating and target price of $37.60 are retained.

Target price is $37.60 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: minus $2.4 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.76, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

Altium's first half subscriber growth was weaker than Macquarie estimated amid headwinds from the macro environment and the exit from the Russian business. Nevertheless, subscriber growth could be boosted with China reopening into the second half.

There are also potential subscription upgrades which, combined with lower costs, should drive stronger margin expansion longer term.

Macquarie transfers coverage to another analyst and retains a Neutral rating, raising the target to $40.00 from $31.40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $0
If ALU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.76, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses underlying 1H growth was a beat versus the consensus forecast, once unfavorable currency movements are overlooked. Altium reported 17.5% revenue growth versus a constant currency rise of 22%.

Management reiterated all full year revenue and earnings (EBITDA) targets including 17.5% revenue growth, which the analyst points out is ahead of the 10% average for global peers. Market share gains are expected.

The broker's target rises to $43.50 from $38.00. Overweight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $43.50 Current Price is $40.00 Difference: $3.5
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.76, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As the share price has moved through the trigger point, Ord Minnett upgrades AMP to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $1.35.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.25
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.22, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett maintains its estimates following the first half results, observing rising interest rates and volatile stock markets throughout 2022 created a challenging environment for new listings.

Rising expenses are also a concern, particularly in combination with flat operating revenue. Rising interest rates may offer some relief because of higher net interest income.

ASX has highlighted a key strategic focus on retaining its licenses and the broker believes the CHESS replacement partnership program is evidence the strategy is being pursued. Hold rating and $66 target.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $68.48 Difference: minus $2.48 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.84, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Buy (1) -

UBS notes AUB Group has lifted the mid point of FY23 guidance ahead of its results on February 22. As a result, forecasts are upgraded and the target raised to $29 from $27. Buy maintained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $25.83 Difference: $3.17
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Aurizon Holdings has announced an 11-year contract with Team Global Express for rail linehaul services connecting Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane.

This is Aurizon's largest non-coal contract, Credit Suisse notes, driving some 10% revenue growth for the Bulk segment.

The broker believes this business is a better fit for Aurizon than the Intermodal business it exited in FY19, which was sub-scale, less than container load and required an integrated logistics service.

Outperform retained, target rises to $4.10 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.66
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Resume Coverage with Outperform (1) -

Aurizon Holdings has signed a foundation contract with TGE, returning to the east-west and north-sales corridor, with the contract fully ramped up by April 2024. Macquarie estimates the contract has a return on invested capital of 7-8%.

The broker points out the market's disappointment after the first half result is now explained, as the company did not restore the 100% net profit payout.

Amid hints of further investment the broker suspects restoration of the payout could be FY25 at the earliest and this is a negative. Yet, the share price has been oversold and, given a solid yield, Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating.  Target is $3.71.

Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.27
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers Aurizon Holdings' new contract with Team Global Express, worth around $1.8bn over 11 years, is a medium-term positive that lends conviction to earnings estimates for Above Rail Bulk.

Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating and $3.66 target. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.22
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Add (1) -

Morgans raises its target by 2% to $3.81, following the announcement by Aurizon Holdings of a contract win (Australia-wide) with freight forwarder Team Global Express.

Management describes the arrangement for interstate delivery of rail line haul services for containers as the company's biggest ever non-coal revenue contract. 

The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.37
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

A solid beat from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank in its first half according to Citi, with net interest income driving a beat to the broker's earnings assumption.

Given expansion on the December exit net interest margin, the broker is anticipating margins won't peak until the second half, which could support consensus upgrades. 

The bank reported cash earnings of $295m, a 7% beat to the broker, which lifts its earnings expectations as a result. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $10.40 from $10.00.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.61
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BEN as Outperform (1) -

A 13% year on year earnings increase for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank beat Credit Suisse by 3%. It was a solid result, the broker suggests,  that has highlighted slightly better net interest margin upside than previously expected.

But Bendelaide is exposed to industry pressures, particularly around consumer margins, which are likely to see this benefit eroded over time, Credit Suisse warns.

The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $11.10 target as Bendelaide is its preferred regional bank exposure, but acknowledges increasing pressures within consumer banking.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $1.31
If BEN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Margin trends were better than expected as Bendigo & Adelaide Bank benefited from higher rates and a material contribution from its new deposit hedge.

On further analysis, Macquarie continues to envisage upside to margins in the second half and anticipates consensus expectations will also be upgraded over FY23.

From there, earnings are expected to decline in FY24 amid margin erosion, as deposit competition and mix shift are fully incorporated in the funding base.

Neutral rating retained. Target is $10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.21
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Overweight (1) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 1H result revealed key metrics broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. Cash profit was an around -1.5% miss though pre-provision profit was a beat by the same percentage.

The December exit margin of 2.03% was ahead of the 2.01% in November. Management is aiming for loan growth "at or better than system" in the 2H and FY23 expenses to only increase modestly on FY22.

The broker feels the bank has significantly improved its management of margins, costs and capital. Overweight. The target rises to $10.50 from $10.10. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.71
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BEN as Hold (3) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's first half result was "solid", in Ord Minnett's view. The increase in cash profit on the prior half, up 23%, emphasises the extent of the earnings rebound as the bank gets a benefit of a higher cash rate environment.

On the other hand, soft home and business lending, the broker asserts, highlights its lack of competitive advantage. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $10.20 target.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.41
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's first half results were in line with expectations and UBS liked the capital position and potential for earnings momentum into the second half.

Still, weaker volume growth and a normalising credit charge could mean the earnings profile is flat to declining over the forecast period.

Net interest margins are upgraded by 11 basis points over FY23-25 but volume forecasts are downgraded. Neutral rating and $10 target maintained.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $9.79 Difference: $0.21
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Prior to BHP Group's 1H results release today, Morgans had penciled in underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$13,775m, a fall of -30% on the 1H of FY22.

The broker also expects a -46% decline in underlying profit to US$7,242m and an interim dividend of US86cps.

The Hold rating and $47 target are unchanged.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $48.46 Difference: minus $1.46 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.01, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope Steel has reported an -18% decline on high margin domestic dispatches, while low to no margin export dispatches tripled to 516,000 tonnes. Despite this, Citi highlights first half earnings of $851m were in line, as was an interim dividend of 25 cents per share. 

With second half guidance based on iron ore and coking coal prices, which are now below spot, Citi sees some risk to second half guidance. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $20.50 from $19.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $2.66
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

BlueScope Steel's first half result was in line with guidance but second half guidance is below expectation. 

In 2021, Credit Suisse concluded there was no evidence Australian Steel Products was outperforming spreads over five years, while NorthStar had underperformed.

Strong realised pricing  and market share growth in Colorbond and other products in the interim led the broker to a rethink.

But on the first half result and second half guidance, Credit Suisse now suggests this may have been cyclical, not structural.

Target falls to $14.40 from $19.90, downgrade to Underperform from Neutral.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: minus $3.44 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Macquarie anticipates a softening housing outlook in Australia may weigh on high-value volume. Moreover, concerns exist regarding the case for a US recession which could test the industry discipline and economics.

BlueScope Steel is trading at a meaningful discount to the 10-year average so the broker assesses support is "reasonably good". Still, Macquarie argues against a more optimistic view and retains a Neutral rating. Target edges back to $18.00 from $18.10.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $0.16
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Overweight (1) -

While BlueScope Steel produced a solid, in line with consensus 1H result, according to Morgan Stanley, management issued  FY23 guidance -17% short of expectations.

Management expects a lower result in the 2H compared to the 1H due to softer Asian and Midwest steel spreads.

Guidance reflects a normalisation of recent trends which have seen the company over-earning in Australia, suggests the analyst. This past outcome was due to supply chain challenges and costs on competing imports and increased coke earnings.

The 25cps fully franked interim dividend was in line with the broker's forecast and the current buyback was extended to (up to) $380m.

Morgan Stanley views BlueScope Steel as a high-quality cyclical exposure and maintains its Overweight rating and $24 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $6.16
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett lowers its estimates for FY23 by -18%, adjusting for management's guidance for second half earnings.

The broker asserts shares in BlueScope Steel are expensive, suspecting the market is yet to fully price in the reversal of US steel spreads and expectations of lower east Asian hot rolled coil spreads.

Moreover, the market is yet to incorporate the meaningful slowdown that is likely in construction activity across the US and Australia, amid higher interest rates.

On the other hand, the return of franking to the interim dividend reflects a return to profitability in the Australian business and the exhaustion of tax losses. Lighten rating and $13 target maintained.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: minus $4.84 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Earnings (EBIT) guidance for the 2H was weaker than UBS expected, putting a dampener on the in-line 1H result for BlueScope Steel.

While a reduction in guidance for North Star earnings by around -$100m was a surprise, the analyst feels unfavourable realised pricing may normalise in FY24.

Despite macroeconomic risks, the broker remains upbeat (with a Buy rating) on the company with Australian Steel Products (ASP) continuing to take market share. The US business is also considered well placed with spot spreads also running above US$400/t.

The target falls to $21.80 from $22. 

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $3.96
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.62, suggesting downside of -0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response to Costa Group's FY22 report, UBS observes it has been a challenging year for the company, but now it's all about market's confidence in whether management can deliver in FY23.

EBITDA-S marked a miss to consensus and UBS's forecast. NPAT-S proved a larger 'miss'. The 5c final dividend was in line.

The balance sheet has become more levered following a challenging 2022, hence deleveraging it in 2023 will be key, the broker suggests.

Neutral. Target $2.75.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.05
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

A -10% decline in Charter Hall Group's year on year earnings was not as bad as Credit Suisse had forecast, but FY guidance was left unchanged.

The broker does not expect Charter Hall to retain net acquisition run-rates of recent periods given the uncertainty of where asset valuations will stabilise and higher debt costs, with the use of leverage to generate returns increasingly difficult.

But while some investors may have been disappointed by the lack of a guidance upgrade, post the subsequent share price pull-back, Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating. Target price up to $15.45 from $15.44.

Target price is $15.45 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $1.82
If CHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

First half results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. Having expected Charter Hall would increase guidance at the results this was merely reaffirmed, so the broker continues to assesses there is a risk of an upgrade.

In explanation, Macquarie calculates hitting guidance implies a fall in operating earnings of -22% in the second half and, while there are headwinds, to this extent is considered unlikely.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $14.75 from $14.81.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $1.12
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Equal-weight (3) -

First half EPS of 50.7cpu for Charter Hall was a beat against the forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus of 46.4cpu and 47.6cpu, respectively.

Property assets under management (AUM) have increased by 11% since last June to $73m. The cap rate across the platform
rose by 10bps.

While the consensus forecast for FY23 already sits at 93.9cpu, management reiterated guidance for "no less than" 90cpu. This guidance implies to the analyst a 2H decline of -20% on the 1H, though this may be due to a performance and transaction fee skew.

Morgan Stanley retains its $14.40 target price and Equal-weight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $0.77
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As the share price has moved through the trigger point, Ord Minnett upgrades Charter Hall to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $15.85.

Target price is $15.85 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $2.22
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Buy (1) -

UBS  assesses a solid 1H result for Charter Hall, with in-line operating earnings against the broker's forecast, but a 7% beat versus consensus.

A 32% rise in Investment Management earnings were countered by lower performance/transaction fees and property investment income.

Management reaffirmed FY23 guidance, which disappointed market expectations for an upgrade, and suggests to the broker a challenging outlook.

The target is reduced to $14 from $14.20. Buy.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $0.37
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.83, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses the first half result for Chorus was "solid". The lifted forecast EBITDA for FY23 to NZ$675-690m reflects favourable trends, amid increasing fibre uptake and higher ARPU.

The main risk, in Macquarie's view, lies with the "as yet" unqualified impact of recent weather events and the rate of uptake in fibre connections.

Neutral. Target is raised to NZ$8.63 from NZ$7.82.

Current Price is $7.48. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CNU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades forecasts for earnings after the better-than-expected increase in first half underlying EBITDA and the increase in full year guidance.

The broker understands the appeal of Chorus as a defensive stock, particularly in the current economic environment, but assesses there is little margin of safety in the share price at current levels.

Furthermore, Ord Minnett suspects, in order to justify the current multiple, investor interest has already shifted to the potential for future growth. Yet the broker is content for the business to "stick to its knitting" and retains a Hold rating. Target is $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.48 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If CNU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Coles Group's December half earnings (EBIT) sharply outpaced consensus' and Citi's forecasts thanks to a 5% beat from supermarkets.

Liquor disappointed consensus and the dividend outpaced the broker's forecasts.

Morgan Stanley spies potential consensus upgrades given the strong outlook for the industry.

Buy rating and $18.90 target price steady for now.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $18.30 Difference: $0.6
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.42, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Coles Group's interim performance was better-than-expected, predominantly because of the supermarkets. UBS finds the announcement of a new CEO a surprise in its timing.

Liquor operations disappointed, but supermarkets and EBIT margin more than compensated, on the broker's assessment.

Neutral. Target $18.25.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $18.30 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.42, suggesting downside of -3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DHG as Overweight (1) -

After New Listings declined by -9.5% in the 1H for Domain Holdings Australia, earnings (EBITDA) and profit fell by -20% and -40%, respectively, compared to the previous corresponding period, explains Morgan Stanley.

The analyst points out that while recent results for REA Group ((REA) showed a similar decline in listings, earnings for the market leader only declined by -2%.

The broker assumes more of a U-shaped recovery for Domain in its FY23-25 forecasts for Listings. The Overweight rating is retained and the target falls to $3.60 from $4.10. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.6
If DHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVT as Buy (1) -

Interim results were largely in line with expectations. EVT Ltd has signalled that earnings remain at the mercy of movie blockbusters and box office success.

Ord Minnett points out the company is in recovery mode post the pandemic and appears confident its second half lineup will provide better results.

More than $280m in non-core property assets have been divested, with borrowing reduced as a result. This clears the way for developments, which appear to the broker to be progressing well.  Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $18.70 from $19.11.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $14.02 Difference: $4.68
If EVT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -

Upon first glance, G8 Education experienced a strong finish to FY22, analysts at UBS comment following today's release. The broker lauds the combination of cost control, better occupancy and better pricing.

While the demand outlook for the sector is improving, UBS maintains labour constraints remain a headwind.

Buy rating and $1.35 price target are now officially Under Review.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.065
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett increases estimates in the wake of the first half result. Goodman Group shares still appear slightly overvalued but the rating is now upgraded to Hold from Lighten.

Management has indicated it will not increase distributions, preferring to retain capital amid profitable development opportunities.

The broker commends the business on its positioning as it takes advantage of favourable conditions in industrial property without exposing shareholders to too much risk.

Earnings growth is expected to offset the headwind of rising interest rates. Target is raised to $18.60 from $18.00.

Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $19.80 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

Citi sees a stable outlook for GPT Group moving into FY23, expecting retail recovery to continue, particularly in central business districts, which it expects to offset a more cautious outlook on office exposure. This follows delivery of a similarly stable full year result in FY22. 

The broker highlights logistics continues to grow, with the company retaining a $1.9bn development pipeline in logistics, and expects GPT Group will continue to search out opportunities to recycle out of lower growth opportunities.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.00 from $4.90.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.43
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GPT as Neutral (3) -

GPT Group's 2022 result was in line with Credit Suisse and guidance and highlighted an improved earnings year, the broker notes, with growth across all key operating segments offset by higher finance costs. 2023 guidance is slightly above expectation.

GPT is trading at a -24% discount to net tangible asset valuation, seemingly being weighed down by its Office exposure as well as its earnings outlook, the broker suggests.

Post a forecast earnings dip in 2023, the broker shows modest earnings growth in 2024-2025, with a potential surprise being sooner than expected leasing success in the Office portfolio. Neutral and $4.93 target retained.

Target price is $4.93 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.36
If GPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

2022 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations and the portfolio is considered well-placed. FY23 guidance for FFO per share is 31.3c per security with a distribution of 25c.

The main downside risk relates to retail and office, the broker assesses. GPT Group is targeting an increase in office occupancy despite the challenging fundamentals.

As a measure of this downside risk, Macquarie estimates every -1% moderation in occupancy in FY23 would be a -0.2% headwind to earnings.

Outperform rating retained. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.74.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.43
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Equal-weight (3) -

GPT Group reported FY22 funds from operations (FFO) of 32.4cpu, in line with forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus. Office devaluations were largely responsible for a decline in net tangible assets (NTA) to $5.98/unit from $6.26/unit.

The analyst notes hybrid working arrangements are behind the ongoing deterioration for office occupancy to 87.9% from 92% six months prior.

Cap rates expanded by 26bps in the last six months and revaluations were down by -5% for 2022.

FY23 guidance is for FFO of 31cpu, slightly ahead of the analyst's expectations.

Equal-weight. Target $4.84. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.27
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GPT as Accumulate (2) -

GPT Group's 2022 results, albeit up 12.4%, were slightly below Ord Minnett's estimates. The bounce in earnings was largely due to the cessation of coronavirus effects on the retail portfolio along with strong funds management and rental growth.

The current share price implies a large drop in asset values, the broker calculates, and values development and funds management at zero. This appears too drastic, given the increase in funds under management over 2022, and a large valuation decline is considered unlikely.

Ord Minnett now whitelabels Morningstar instead of JPMorgan and has an Accumulate rating with a $5.40 target.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.83
If GPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GPT as Buy (1) -

FY22 results and FY23 guidance for GPT Group were in line with expectations previously held by UBS.

The broker maintains its Buy rating, noting the shares continue to trade on the company's weakest link (office) despite retail, logistics and funds management outperforming expectations.

The analyst likes the short-dated logistics development pipeline, the scope to grow assets under management (AUM) and points out the peak for office vacancy has passed (86% occupancy for GPT in FY22).

Management is guiding to FY23 funds from operations (FFO) of circa 31.3cpu and a flat dividend of 25cpu. The target rises to $5.17 from $5.12.

Target price is $5.17 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $0.6
If GPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

GWA Group's first half results missed Macquarie's forecasts and estimates for FY23 and FY24 are cut by -18% and -17%, respectively.

While lowering sales expectations markedly as trading conditions weaken, the broker is also more cautious about margin outcomes with the potential for a shift in mix to lower value products.

As the risks are high in the context of a slowing Australian housing market, the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $2.10.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT produced a first half result that was in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker suggests the business has multiple levers for growth including active capital recycling and an attractive development pipeline.

Capital recycling over the first half was accretive and Macquarie expects this will continue. Occupancy is still more than 99% amid sector-leading leasing spreads.

Outperform maintained. Target is steady at $1.40.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.13
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Equal-weight (3) -

At first glance, HomeCo Daily Needs REIT broadly met Morgan Stanley's forecasts and management reiterated guidance. The broker takes the result as proof of ramp-up developments after the Aventus merger.

The broker observes the development pipeline has grown to $600m from $500, with a whopping $120m scheduled to commence in FY24, which compares with the company's traditional $30m per year.

Perhaps this explains the sale of Epping during the period (-$70.3m), which was just six months ago being touted as a development prospect, clarifies the analyst.

Morgan Stanley observes about 70% of drawn debt is hedged to June 26 on a base of 2.75% and that the company closed the half with gearing of 31.5%, which would rise to 35% after accounting for another -$250m in capital expenditure.

Equal Weight rating and $1.35 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.08
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Add (1) -

In the wake of 1H results for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, Morgans assesses all metrics remain solid with greater than 99% occupancy and a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 4.6 years. 

The broker points out cap rate expansion was offset by property income growth.

FY23 guidance was reiterated.

Morgans lowers its target to $1.50 from $1.52. Add.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.23
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HDN as Hold (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's first half result was in line with expectations. Debt costs are expected to rise in FY24 yet management believes it can deliver growth regardless, through a combination of higher rental income and developments.

Ord Minnett was surprised at the sale of HomeCo Epping, which appears opportunistic as this had been identified as a major development prospect. The broker retains a Hold rating and the target edges up to $1.33 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.33 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.06
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Neutral (3) -

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered funds from operations (FFO) of 4.3cpu in the 1H, in line with forecasts by UBS and consensus, and reaffirmed FY23 guidance for 8.6cpu.

The analyst likes the trust's development options and it remains the preferred exposure in the space on stronger-than-peer earnings growth.

The broker's target falls to $1.37 from $1.42 to reflect a portfolio cap rate of 5.6%. Neutral.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.1
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Add (1) -

Morgans was impressed by an earnings margin already above pre-covid levels and ongoing improvements for total transaction value (TTV) and profits, after reviewing 1H results for Helloworld Travel.

FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance was upgraded by 25% and the analyst notes management has been traditionally conservative in its projections.

The company sees strong growth into the foreseeable future, boosted by the China re-opening.

The broker considers the stock price is materially undervalued and maintains its Add rating, while the target rises to $3.14 from $2.82.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.97
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HLO as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett welcomes the net profit in the first half given a net loss was anticipated. Helloworld Travel's earnings guidance is also upgraded at the EBITDA level. Nevertheless, this needs to be balanced against the deterioration in the balance sheet post the sale of the corporate division, the broker points out.

There is also an increasing gap between trade creditors and receivables/accrued revenue versus pre-pandemic levels. The company has indicated consumer demand for offshore travel was "going gangbusters", a positive aspect that is likely to underpin earnings in coming years.

The main challenge, in the broker's opinion, is the conversion of earnings to sustainable free cash flow. Hold rating. Target is reduced to $2.08 from $2.15.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If HLO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Hub24's December-half result outpaced consensus but fell -5% short of Citi's forecasts.

Funds under administration rose by $2.7bn in the first six weeks of the second half, and management raised its Class synergy target.

On the downside, Class revenue disappointed, platform cost-growth was higher than forecast, and adviser flows were down.

Above-consensus guidance reiterated and Citi spies room for consensus upgrades albeit upside is expected to be constrained by cost growth.

Neutral rating retained and $29 target price retained for now.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $2
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Following an early assessment of today's interim report release, UBS analysts believe Hub24 has yet again managed to "beat the street" with its financial performance.

The interim dividend of 14c compares with UBS's 12c forecast and market consensus on 12.8c.

Very strong growth in revenues was matched by strong growth in costs but margin surprise decided the positive outcome, the analysts suggest.

Buy. Target $31.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $4
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Sell (5) -

At first glance, Iluka Resources' FY22 full-year result met consensus and outpaced Citi's forecasts.

The final investment decision on Balranald was achieved (and Wimmera approved) requiring roughly -$480m in capital expenditure (higher than expected), and the broker observes the timing could be better given softer mineral sands prices.

But the company kicks off 2023 with a strong cash position of $489m, observes the broker.  Sell rating and $10.40 target price retained for now.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IRE as Neutral (3) -

Iress's full-year result just scraped into the low end of downgraded September guidance as reduced revenue combined with higher expenses to cut margins. Capital expenditure rose $5m half on half to the top end of guidance and net debt has risen to $326.1m.

Management's FY23 net profit after tax guidance fell at the low end of Macquarie's forecasts. 

EPS forecasts fall -32% in FY23; -27% in FY24; and -24% to -26% thereafter.

The broker describes 2022 as a rebasing year and observes the core of the Australian business remains strong (but UK continues to drag), the company's annual churn rate has eased, and the dividend is attractive. Macquarie awaits the company's April 20 Investor Day (post an operational review) and evidence on EPS execution.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $9.30 from $12.40.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $0.21
If IRE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IRE as Hold (3) -

Despite in-line FY22 headline numbers for Iress, Morgans points to ongoing margin pressure which weighed upon the 2H.

Guidance, on a business-as-usual basis, is for segment profit "at or above" 2022 levels. The analyst notes if segment profit is flat, underlying profit will have fallen by around -16.5% on the previous corresponding period.

The broker awaits the company's strategy and execution update on April 20 for further clarity on costs and updated FY25 targets.

Ultimately, Morgans sees significant upside for earnings though valuation multiples are currently full and balance sheet flexibility has been reduced. Hold.

The target falls to $9.20 from $10.56.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $9.09 Difference: $0.11
If IRE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JDO as Buy (1) -

At a glance, Judo Capital's December-half cash earnings outpaced consensus forecasts thanks to a sharp fall in the company's TD spread, but management doubts this will continue, with January TD spreads already on the rise.

Strong loan growth met forecasts but tougher competition as credit growth slowed triggered pressure on pricing and margins.

Citi says the beat justifies the company's share-price rise since October but the broker is keeping a keen eye peeled to the credit environment.

Buy rating and $1.90 target price retained for now.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.46
If JDO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.91, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JRV as Outperform (1) -

Jervois Global's recent assay results from a six-hole drilling plan at ICO point to resource upside, and Macquarie expects the project will deliver its first concentrate this quarter and an updated reserves and resources estimate in the June quarter.

While lower cobalt prices have proved a drag, Macquarie expects the company to diversify as the number of operational assets increases.

Outperform rating and 40c target price retained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.2
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLS as Outperform (1) -

Kelsian Group's recent Sydney bus contract tender has yielded fruit, the company winning the NSW Region 2 (which includes Region 15) contract.

The contract, valued at $500m, runs from October 23 to late June 2031 and Macquarie says the deal expands the company's presence in south-western Sydney. Kelsian now operates 30% of the NSW network: Regions 2, 3, 6, 12 and 15.

Macquarie tinkers with earnings estimates. Outperform rating and $8.10 target price retained.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $1.71
If KLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.87, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -

Lunnon Metals has completed five extra drill holes (twins) to further metallurgical testing at Baker and advises a maiden reserve is expected within a few months.

A final investment decision is expected by late 2023. Macquarie made miniscule changes to short-term forecasts. Target remains $1.30.

Lunnon Metals remains Outperform-rated.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.355
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

While Link Administration is set to report on its first half later in February, Citi notes the company continues to guide to full year earnings growth of 10-12%. The broker makes no changes to its earnings per share forecast at this point, it will reassess after the half year result. 

Citi has adjusted its first and second half outlooks for Link Administration to account for profits on PEXA and impairment charges for the company's Link Fund Solutions (LFS). The broker expects successful execution of the LFS sale with a broadly net zero outcome would be positive for the stock.

The Neutral rating and target price of $2.00 are retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 57.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

As the share price for Mineral Resources has moved through the trigger point, Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten. Target is $75.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $81.85 Difference: minus $6.85 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $97.59, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Sell (5) -

In an initial response to Monadelphous Group's interim result, Citi analysts point out the disappointment came from Engineering & Construction.

While management at the firm sees a recovery in FY24, Citi analysts are more cautious, referring to stiff and aggressive competition for projects while awards and commencements generally continue to face delays.

The first half showed resilience, the analysts acknowledge, but they nevertheless believe the subdued outlook for E&C will weigh on investors' minds.

Sell. Target $12.35.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $13.96 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MND as Neutral (3) -

Upon first glance, Monadelphous Group has beaten forecasts with its interim financials but management's cautious guidance implies a lower sales outlook, explains UBS.

The broker highlights management expects FY23 Construction revenues to decline, before increasing again in FY24, making timing of new project awards and commencements the deciding factors, alongside labour availability.

Neutral. Target $13.85.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $13.96 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Given macro conditions appear unlikely to improve near-term, Citi has materially lowered its forecasts for Megaport's key products.

Of note, the broker lowered its forecast for services in use by -10-20%, reflecting a weaker than expected second quarter and the broker's expectation that weak demand continues into the third quarter. 

The broker does expect the company will benefit from a shift to hybrid and multi-cloud as the transition matures.  

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.05 from $10.95.

Target price is $7.05 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $1
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.05, suggesting upside of 50.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

A disappointing first half result from nib Holdings, according to Citi, with the broker noting much of the 'miss' stemmed from pre-flagged losses from Midnight Health. 

Further investment in Midnight Health looks to be a feature of the next three to four halves, with Citi not anticipating a breakeven until FY25. 

Despite arhi margins declining markedly in the period, the broker points out this segment continues to grow ahead of system and the company expects growth of 3-4% over the year. Both iihi and travel are demonstrating quick recovery, suggests the broker.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $7.85 from $7.60.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.83
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Despite a -4.5% miss on underlying operating profit, nib Holdings' core business momentum still looks strong, Credit Suisse suggests.

The 'miss' resulted from Australian residents health insurance margins with a management expense ratio above consensus, but most of this was offset by beats in other divisions.

The majority of the 'miss' resulted from a headwind from Midnight Health (now consolidated). Core private health insurance metrics seem solid and the turnaround for inbound international health insurance continues, the broker notes.

Credit Suisse nevertheless retains Neutral while waiting for further evidence of a strong post-covid rebound. Target falls to $7.70 from $8.09.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.68
If NHF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

nib Holdings's December-half result disappointed Macquarie on the residents' margin front, but the broker spies a covid rebound in play.

While expenses were on the high side, the broker observes the company's NDIS business posted strong customer growth, travel and international divisions pleased; nib's trajectory remains strong.

EPS forecasts fall -6.2% in FY23; and -3.2% in FY2024 to reflect the pressure on residents net margins. 

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $7.55 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.53
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

nib Holdings's December-half result met Morgan Stanley's forceast, a blip in net claims and underwriting costs overshadowing a rise in revenue and contributing to a -9% miss on net underwriting profit. But the broker says claims, while higher, remain benign.

Group net underwriting margins disappointed the broker and consensus, as did underlying EPS, leading to EPS downgrades.

On the upside, net policyholder growth outpaced and guidance was reiterated. The broker suspect growth may be on the up, hence the retention of guidance.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target price falls to $6.95 form $7.15. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Add (1) -

First half reported profit for nib Holdings was a -6% miss versus the consensus forecast, while the 13cps interim dividend was in line. 

Morgans considers the underlying business performance was sound with profit and revenue growth on the previous corresponding period.

Guidance remains broad, notes the analyst, with 3-4% policy holder growth in Australian residents householder insurance (ARHI) and 3-5% policyholder growth in New Zealand.

The broker has some nagging concerns regarding the speed of profit normalisation after the ARHI net margin slumped to 8.6% from 10.6% in the previous corresponding period.

The target falls to $7.55 from $8.15. Hold.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.53
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

First half results were mixed, with a strong rebound in travel and international insurance partially offset by weaker-than-expected Australian private health insurance.

In adddition to deferral of premium price increases, nib Holdings' bottom line was affected by higher acquisition costs and additional investment expenditure.

Ord Minnett increases FY23 profit estimates by around 5% following the result. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten while the target of $7 is unchanged.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

First half results were below consensus expectations yet UBS considers these were optimistic. The broker assesses the decline in the nib Holdings stock price is overdone and there is now a unique entry point.

As a result, the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target raised to $8.00 from $7.80.

The broker observes policy growth in Australian resident insurance remains buoyant and the brand continues to gain market share. Policy growth is expected to exceed the 3-4% guidance range in FY23.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.02 Difference: $0.98
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NST as Neutral (3) -

Northern Star Resources' result met Credit Suisse but missed consensus, because consensus had its accounting wrong, the broker believes. The 11c dividend will be the last fully-franked for some time, the broker notes, given minimal domestic revenues ahead.

Northern Star’s language towards the KCGM mill expansion has become more subdued, Credit Suisse suggests, with “execution” remaining a key risk. Management is left with a "buy or build" decision.

The broker would prefer the miner to leverage its organic optionality, preserve the balance sheet and return excess funds. However, it is in a unique position whereby inorganic opportunities may be more accretive.

Neutral and $11.50 target retained.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.28
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

On closer examination, Northern Star Resources's December-half earnings and net profit sharply outpaced Macquarie's estimates. Management retains guidance and will issue a decision on the KCGM mill expansion this year.

The broker notes the net profit was boosted by an $11m gain on revaluation of the debenture and a $2.2m FX gain, which were not in estimates. 

The dividend was also higher than expected at $0.11 versus $0.10, and Northern Star Resources expects any dividends paid within the next 18 months will be unfranked because of a low franking credit balance.

EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY23 and are steady thereafter.  Outperform rating and $14 target retained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $2.78
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Northern Star Resources' December-half missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts, although the dividend outpaced by 10% (but the company advised there would be no franking credits for 18 months).

The big misses were in earnings (EBITDA), which fell -11% short of consensus and -9% below the broker's forecasts due to inventory movements; and a -25% consensus shortfall on cash conversion (MS -23%) as working capital investment jumped sharply.

Net debt rose sharply to $376m vs consensus forecasts of $220m.

A decision is expected on the KCGM mill expansion in 2023 and EPS forecasts rise across FY23 and FY24.

Equal-Weight rating retained. Target price rises to $11.75 from the last entry in the FNArena database in January of $10.90.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.53
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Buy (1) -

First half results from Northern Star Resources beat Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker envisages EBITDA, margins and free cash flow will all improve markedly into the second half.

This view is based on the weighted production guidance amid fundamental improvements at Thunderbox, KCGM and Pogo. Buy rating maintained. Target is steady at $12.80.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $1.58
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with UBS. With slightly higher costs compared with Evolution Mining ((EVN)) and Newcrest ((NCM)), the broker believes Northern Star Resources still offers better operating performance, that translates to lower-risk production while there remain growth options.

The next major catalyst is the Super Pit expansion, the broker suggests. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $11.50 from $11.10.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.28
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXL as Equal-weight (3) -

Nuix's preannounced December-half result was as expected and Morgan Stanley takes this as a positive - confirmation that the company is enjoying rising demand and prices. 

Revenue is now on the up, but the broker advises the company remains a turnaround story, believing a rerating will swing on new contract wins and higher returns.

Equal-weight rating and $1.25 target price retained. 

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.155
If NXL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OML as Neutral (3) -

oOh!media reported a slight beat on earnings. At the revenue line, a weaker than expected outcome for Street & Rail was somewhat offset by better than expected performance in Road and in Fly, Credit Suisse notes.

Management pointed to growth continuing into the start of first half of 2023, with Road and Fly continuing strong momentum from 2022. The broker now forecasts first half revenues to be at 98% of 2019 levels.

Neutral and $1.70 target retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.16
If OML meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

oOh!media's FY22 full-year result outpaced consensus' and Macquaries' forecasts by 1% thanks to stronger than expected road segment revenue (which posted double digit growth on higher margins), and the broker observes the company is proving more resilient than many peers.

Management points to a strong contract pipeline but the broker notes that while large contracts are defensive, these are typically lower margin. The broker expects an outcome for the Sydney Metro City and Southwest contract in 2023.

On the capital management front, the buyback will continue if not completed by August, and the company flagged potential M&A.

Interest expense was less than expected, flowing into EPS upgrades. EPS forecasts rise 30% in FY23; 45% in FY24; and 46% in FY25.

Outperform rating. Target price rises 30% to $2.49 from $1.86.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.95
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OML as Equal-weight (3) -

oOh!media's FY22 full-year result met consensus forecasts, revenue rising 17.6% and earnings (EBITDA) posting a 3.2% beat.

Management's first-quarter trading update confirmed momentum from structural tailwinds are continuing, but Morgan Stanley believes the company is more exposed than peers to a macro downturn given its higher operating leverage; and is hence a riskier proposition.

The broker observes that roughly 32% of the company's contracts are due for renewal in 2023 - higher than usual - falling at a less than desirable point in the market.

EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY23; and 12% in FY24 to reflect stronger earnings.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target price rises to $1.50 from $1.40. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If OML meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OML as Hold (3) -

2022 operating earnings were below forecasts and Ord Minnett reduces EBITDA estimates by around -8% for the next three years. Longer term expectations remain intact.

oOh!media has had a focus since 2021 on maximising concession economics, appearing willing to walk away from low-margin contracts. The broker suspects 2023 will be a test for this strategy, given the large number of concessions up for renewal.

Also, competitors have ramped up considerably and may be more willing to sacrifice margins on any renewals that are up for grabs. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $1.50 target.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If OML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

2022 results were much stronger than Ord Minnett expected. The underwriting result more than doubled to US$2.2bn, supported by a 9% increase in premiums and a drop in expense and commission ratios.

The broker makes minor changes to estimates but is now more positive on operating costs. Given a higher cash rate environment, Ord Minnett expects QBE Insurance to generate stronger returns on its policyholder and shareholder funds in 2023.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target lifted 8% to $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $14.92 Difference: minus $1.92 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.49, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23: